Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold and silver prices driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and increasing global interest rate cut expectations [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, 2026, COMEX gold futures reached over $4600 per ounce, with a daily increase exceeding 2%, while spot gold hit a record high of $4601.38 per ounce [2]. - Silver prices also saw significant gains, with spot silver peaking at $84.02 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising by 5.7% to $83.9 per ounce [2]. - Domestic markets reflected this trend, with SHFE gold closing at 1,026.96 yuan per gram (up 2.64%) and SHFE silver at 20,651.00 yuan per kilogram (up 12.82%), marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a decade [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. military involvement in Venezuela and its control over oil, have heightened market risk aversion, supporting the rise in precious metal prices [3]. - The ongoing U.S. fiscal risks, exacerbated by the Trump administration's policies and previous government shutdowns, have led to increased skepticism about U.S. fiscal sustainability, driving funds towards gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Central banks globally continue to show strong interest in gold, with China's gold reserves reaching 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306 tons) by December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upward trend in precious metals is expected to continue, with the market likely seeking a new trading range after surpassing historical highs, targeting the next psychological resistance at $4800 per ounce [5]. - The rise in precious metals may also influence other metal assets, as gold and silver possess both financial and industrial attributes, potentially leading to increased interest in copper, platinum, and other metals [5]. - It is noted that metals like palladium, platinum, and copper are more influenced by their own supply-demand fundamentals, and the rise in precious metals may also be linked to narratives around global supply chain restructuring and strategic resource autonomy [5].

Core Insights - The current U.S. labor market is undergoing a structural adjustment, with non-farm payroll data indicating a divergence that reshapes Federal Reserve policy expectations and triggers a new round of global asset market dynamics [2] Group 1: Non-Farm Data Analysis - In September, non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating a rare divergence of rising employment alongside increasing unemployment [3] - The increase in labor supply, with approximately 500,000 workers re-entering the market, counteracted the positive effects of new job creation, leading to this data divergence [3] - Statistical peculiarities, such as a 75.6% response rate from surveyed companies in August and the late reporting of employment data, contributed to the inflated job numbers in September [3] Group 2: December Non-Farm Report Insights - The December non-farm report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of only 50,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 60,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.4% [4] - The total non-farm employment increase for 2025 was only 584,000, the weakest performance since 2020, significantly lower than the 2 million increase in 2024 [4] - The three-month moving average indicated a decline of 22,000 jobs, suggesting potential suppression of consumer spending [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The non-farm data has been pivotal in shaping market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments, with a significant drop in the probability of a rate cut in January from 11.6% to 2.8% [6] - The market's cautious stance reflects a balance between economic resilience and policy uncertainty, as indicated by the high yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [9] Group 4: Asset Market Reactions - The precious metals market saw gold prices rise above $4,600 per ounce, driven by soft non-farm data and geopolitical risks, while silver prices also reached historical highs [7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.2%, showing a typical negative correlation with precious metal prices, while the stock market may see renewed support for growth stocks if labor market weakness persists [9] Group 5: Comprehensive Data Analysis Approach - A multi-dimensional analysis approach is emphasized, focusing on employment quality, labor participation rate dynamics, and cross-verification with other economic indicators to avoid misinterpretation of single data points [10][13] - The upcoming December CPI data is expected to play a crucial role in determining future Federal Reserve policy, with potential implications for market discussions on policy easing [14]

北京商报讯（记者 孟凡霞 周义力）1月12日，上海黄金交易所发布《关于继续做好近期市场风险控制工 作的通知》指出，近期受多重因素影响，贵金属价格波动显著加剧，不确定性持续上升。请各会员单位 密切关注市场行情变化，继续做细做好风险应急预案，维护市场平稳运行。同时，提示投资者做好风险 防范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资。 贵金属市场再迎历史性时刻。1月12日，伦敦金现、伦敦银现同步强势攀升，截至发稿，最高分别突破 4600美元/盎司关键关口、触及84.606美元/盎司，双双刷新历史新高。受火热行情传导，A股贵金属板 块亦表现亮眼，截至收盘，明牌珠宝涨超10%，盛达资源涨超8%，中国白银集团、湖南白银、晓程科 技均超5%，周大福、中国黄金国际、周生生、老铺黄金等多股纷纷跟涨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spot gold price has surged, breaking the historical high of $4550.520 per ounce set on December 29, 2025, and reaching $4550.880 per ounce, reflecting a 0.93% increase [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic gold jewelry market has also seen an increase, with prices for Lao Miao Gold and Chow Sang Sang rising to 1429 CNY per gram, up by 22 CNY and 19 CNY respectively [1] - As of the end of December 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons), with a month-on-month increase of 30,000 ounces (approximately 0.93 tons), marking 14 consecutive months of accumulation [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council reports that gold has performed strongly in 2025, with prices expected to rise by 15%-30% in 2026, driven by investment demand, particularly in gold ETFs, which will offset weak demand from the jewelry and technology sectors [3] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, aimed at normalizing monetary policy amid easing core inflation, are expected to support metal prices, particularly precious metals and copper [5] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a high certainty of gold price increases, driven by expectations of U.S. monetary and fiscal easing, with a model predicting international gold prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [5] - The current gold market is in a favorable environment due to the resonance of policy and capital, with short-term fluctuations not altering the long-term upward trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold and silver prices, with gold futures reaching a historic high of $4,612 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 11, gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a record high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce [1][2]. - Both gold and silver futures have shown significant price increases, with gold rising by 3.96% and silver by 11.72% during the week [4]. - Silver prices experienced extreme volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8% and a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, followed by a drop of over 7% [5][6]. Group 2: Market Influences - Geopolitical events, such as the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the increased allocation of precious metals by investors [4]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index underwent an annual rebalancing, which significantly reduced the weight of precious metals, potentially triggering passive liquidation by index-tracking funds [14]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for precious metals futures, including a 28.6% increase for silver, which typically curbs high-leverage and speculative trading [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from multiple financial institutions anticipate that despite short-term downward pressures, there remains potential for price increases in precious and industrial metals throughout the year [13]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that while silver prices are expected to rise, they will experience higher volatility and uncertainty compared to gold due to the lack of demand support from global central bank reserves [9].

摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚市时段，黄金价格一度冲高至约4600美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。在全球不确定 性加剧的背景下，避险资金持续涌入黄金市场，同时市场对美联储年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要 支撑。地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军 事选项，此前伊朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为 传统避险资产的吸引力。 今日周五(1月9日)亚市时段，黄金价格一度冲高至约4600美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。在全球不确定性加 剧的背景下，避险资金持续涌入黄金市场，同时市场对美联储年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要支 撑。地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事 选项，此前伊朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传 统避险资产的吸引力。 【基本面解析】 分析认为，鲍威尔或因政治压力选择留任理事至2028年，以限制特朗普对理事会的控制。特朗普与鲍威 尔的矛盾由来已久，第二任期批评更甚，甚至试图以欺诈指控驱逐其他理事，相关案件将由最高法院审 理。 【最新现货黄金 ...

2026.01. 12 本文字数：1127，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 1月12日亚洲早盘，COMEX黄金期货价格直线拉升，站上每盎司4600美元，时隔两周再度刷新历史 新高。 截至发稿，最高触及4612美元/盎司。 COMEX白银价格跟涨，截至发稿报83.9美元/盎司，日内大涨5.7%。 贺利氏金属（Heraeus Metals）贵金属交易员亚历山大·楚姆夫（Alexander Zumpfe）表示，如果地 缘政治紧张局势进一步扩大，或者美国数据强化了美联储将采取比目前预期更宽松政策的预期，那么 黄金很可能将持续刷新纪录。 市场分析人士指出，金银价格持续高位运行既得益于地缘风险的不确定性的刺激，也来自需求端长期 高增长。 央行最新数据显示，截至2025年12月末，国内黄金储备报7415万盎司（约2306.323吨），为连续第 14个月增持黄金。 "考虑到中国央行黄金储备相对于其他主要经济体的水平，中国央行的购金行为将持续为金价提供支 撑。"高盛全球团队预测，截至 2026年12月，金价将达到4900美元/盎司。 国内贵金属期货继续走高，沪金期货主力连续合约涨约3%，报1031元/克；沪银期货 ...

与此同时，欧洲地缘安全议题同样引发市场关注。英国和德国正讨论在格陵兰地区加强军事存在，以显 示其对北极安全问题的重视。 摘要周一（1月12日）亚市早盘，贵金属价格飙升，黄金与白银携手刷新历史纪录，现货黄金首次站上 4600美元大关，新年首月累涨280美元，现货白银超越前两周高点创下历史新高，日内涨幅一度接近 5%，距离84美元关口仅一步之遥。 周一（1月12日）亚市早盘，贵金属价格飙升，黄金与白银携手刷新历史纪录，非农疲软、伊朗局势升 温、美联储主席遭司法威胁、美元走软等多重因素共振，推动避险资产疯狂上涨。 现货黄金高开高走，现货黄金首次站上4600美元大关，新年首月累涨280美元，现货白银超越前两周高 点创下历史新高，日内涨幅一度接近5%，距离84美元关口仅一步之遥。现货铂金涨超3.00%，触及2382 美元高位，现货钯金日内涨超4.00%，现报1891.70美元/盎司。 近期美伊紧张关系骤然升级，对全球市场构成冲击。一方面，伊朗国内因经济危机爆发大规模抗议，局 势动荡；另一方面，美国总统特朗普公开威胁可能采取军事等方式进行干预，以支持抗议者。 1月11日据知情官员透露，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对 ...

消息面上，美国经济数据层面劳动力市场喜忧参半，非农与ADP就业偏弱但失业率改善，总体削弱降息 条件，但制造业PMI与新屋开工不及预期亦加剧基本面担忧，对贵金属仍起短期支撑作用。地缘紧张局 势持续发酵，据新华网报道，美国《纽约时报》10日援引匿名美国官员的话报道称，美国总统特朗普近 日已听取关于军事打击伊朗方案的汇报。 1月5日-1月9日，上周受地缘政治及美联储鸽派言论连续利好催化，COMEX黄金期货价格重新站上4500 美元关口，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货周度涨4.36%报4518.4美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏 （518850）周度涨3.01%，黄金股ETF（159562）周度涨6.77%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)周度涨 8.93%。 市场分析指出，美国突袭委内瑞拉引发地缘政治动荡和市场避险情绪升温，加之发达经济体债务膨胀， 投资者增加贵金属配置。近期地缘动荡频发推动资产储备多元化，避险需求利好黄金，黄金作为安全资 产的需求持续提升。 ...

A股贵金属板块集体高开，截至9:45，明牌珠宝涨超6%，盛达资源、晓程科技涨超5%，湖南白银、中 国白银集团均涨超4%，中国黄金国际、灵宝黄金等多股跟涨。 （文章来源：北京商报） 北京商报讯1月12日早盘，伦敦金现最高突破4600美元/盎司关键关口，伦敦银现最高触及84美元/盎 司，均创历史新高。 ...