铝产业链周报 01 周度观点 ◆ 基本面分析 山西、河南铝土矿价格暂稳，几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比持稳于70.5美元/干吨。12月进口矿现货供应预期会增加，矿价 预计将承压。氧化铝运行产能周度环比上升60万吨至9670万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加7.1万吨至441.5万吨。大多数氧化 铝企业依然维持高产满产运行，前期检修的少部分氧化铝企业逐步复产完成。电解铝运行产能周度环比增加1万吨至4443.4万吨。 减复产能方面，为进一步降低电耗，山西朔州能源对部分电解槽进行停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右；新疆个别铝厂因环保管 控有所减产。新投产能方面，近期天山铝业20万吨逐步投产、2026年全面达产，扎铝35万吨将于12月建成投产、2026年全面达 产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比上升0.3%至62.3%。铝线缆延续温和回升节奏，车企年末冲量需求带动 型材、原生铝合金行业开工率上行，但整体需求逐步进入淡季，开工预计仍将承压。库存方面，周内铝锭社会库存去化。再生铸造 铝合金方面，汽车板块订单饱满，带动产能利用率提升。宏观情绪好转，周内以企稳为主，周五夜盘再次大幅增仓上行，短期或继 续反弹态势 ...

李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 12 月 1 日 关注美联储动向 铝价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，伴随美联储官员近期连续鸽派发言，以 及美国9月零售低于预期，11月消费信心指数骤降等 因素，美联储降息预期冲回86%以上，市场风险偏好 跟随改善。基本面新疆地区前期电解铝企业投产的 新产能本周继续投放，其余电解铝企业开工产能持 稳运行。消费端上周铝加工开工率小幅上行0.3%至 62.3%，在年末冲量需求下汽车领域相对稳健、铝线 缆温和回升，带动行业开工率上行。周度铝库存继续 去库，较上周四减少2.5万吨至59.6万吨，铝 ...

关于港股后市 恒生指数高开0.34%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。盘面上，有色板块活跃，中国铝业涨近3%，紫金矿业涨 近2%；小米集团涨0.54%，公司11月交付量超过4万台。 东吴证券表示，港股短期风险因素在减少，但反弹确认还需要催化剂。从中长期配置来看，当前位置有 吸引力。该行指，如果美联储降息预期升温，有利于港股回升。此外，美股AI科技泡沫叙事有所减 弱，港股科技随之回调较多，当前具备配置吸引力。 浦银国际表示，"迎合新趋势，拥抱新消费"依然将是2026年消费行业的重要投资策略。在该机构看来， 以下五大消费趋势涵盖了中国消费行业2026年大部分的投资机会：(1)高质价比国产品牌将持续占领消 费者心智(比如连锁咖啡、运动服饰、美妆)，(2)情绪类消费的需求将保持旺盛(比如潮玩、美妆、宠 物)，(3)新兴销售渠道加速崛起(比如即时零售、会员店、零食量贩)，(4)中国消费企业出海正当时(比如 潮玩、咖啡、家电)，(5)健康类消费是长期趋势(比如银发经济、保健品与医疗服务)。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈筱亦。 中信证券表示，在增量资金越来越多的以左侧稳健型资金为主的资金生态下，A股/港股未来可能更多地 ...

港股12月首日三大指数迎来高开行情，恒生指数涨0.34%，国企指数涨0.31%，恒生科技指数涨0.21%。 大型科技股多数呈现上涨，阿里巴巴、小米皆有涨幅；LME铜价创新高，铜业股集体强势，江西铜业 股份涨近5%，五矿资源涨近4%，铝业股、黄金股等有色金属齐涨，重型基建股、内房股、汽车股活 跃。另外，燃气股、家电股、建材水泥股走低。(格隆汇) ...

A股 - Minmetals Capital's announcement of a related party transaction has drawn industry attention, with its subsidiary Minmetals Trust planning to jointly invest in a joint venture with Minmetals Real Estate, injecting 300 million yuan in cash and an asset package valued at 16.29 billion yuan [2] - The results of the subscription for Moer Thread, known as the "first domestic GPU stock," were announced, with public funds, social security funds, and pension funds acquiring approximately 38.59 million shares, accounting for 98.44% of the offline final issuance [2] - Yunnan Aluminum announced plans to acquire stakes in three aluminum companies from Yunnan Metallurgical Group, while AVIC Helicopter's subsidiary plans to merge with another wholly-owned subsidiary [2] 港股 - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a surge, surpassing the NYSE and NASDAQ, aiming to become the top global fundraising market for new stocks by 2025, with 81 new listings raising a total of 215.98 billion HKD in the first ten months of the year [3] - More than half of the fundraising amount in Hong Kong has come from 14 A-share companies, with notable price discrepancies between A-shares and H-shares, exemplified by CATL's H-share price being over 14% higher than its A-share price [3] 理财 - In November, nine dividend-themed funds were established, raising a total of 6.615 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high for the year, with significant contributions from several funds launched on November 25 [4] - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have begun to withdraw 5-year large-denomination time deposits, focusing on shorter-term products, with a broad impact across various banks [4] - Sixteen technology-themed funds have been approved, including several ETFs focused on artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, with some products receiving approval on the same day they were submitted [4] 个人养老金 - As the year-end personal pension contribution window approaches, banks are intensifying promotional efforts, offering exclusive benefits to attract customers to open accounts and contribute funds, with potential subsidies of around 600 yuan for maximum contributions [5] 债务 - The issuance of new local special bonds in November is expected to reach 492.2 billion yuan, an increase of over 200 billion yuan from the previous month, alongside a significant rise in refinancing bonds [5] 其他 - From January to October, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China totaled 595.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing being the main profit growth drivers [6] - China remains the world's largest market for industrial robots, with significant improvements in performance and quality, and a projected increase in domestic multi-joint robot sales [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new credit repair management method, effective from April 1, 2026, allowing credit subjects to apply for credit repair under certain conditions [6] - China's foreign direct investment reached 1,033.23 billion yuan in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with investments made in 9553 overseas enterprises across 152 countries and regions [7] - The Chinese medical device market is expected to reach 1.22 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by innovation, with a record number of approved innovative medical devices [7]

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 几内亚矿价持稳， 氧化铝供应继续修复 氧化铝：上周氧化铝现货价格小幅下行。阿拉丁（ALD）北方 综合价格在 2800-2850 元/吨，较上周持平；国产加权指数 2831.9 元/吨，较上周下跌 2 元/吨。进口氧化铝港口报价在 2820-2880 元/吨，较上周持平。铝厂库存高位、长单执行充足，现货成交 有限。进口方面，东澳成交 3 万吨氧化铝 FOB 311.50 美元/吨， 折合人民币 2760 元/吨左右，进口窗口打开。截止当周，国内氧 化铝完全成本为 2817 元/吨，实时利润为 45 元/吨。供应方面， 运行产能前期因检修、环保和串线等因素下降，近两周在检修结 束后，开始再度回升。全国氧化铝建成产能 11462 万吨，运行 9670 万吨，较上周增 60 万吨，开工率 84.4%。 ★风险提示 几内亚矿石供给出现扰动。 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | 孙伟东 | 首席分析师(有色金属) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 11 月 30 日 | 从业资格号： ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 "十五五"开年给铝消费带来新希望 新能源&有色组铝产业年报 本期分析研究员 陈思捷 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 师橙 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 铝年度报告 2025-11-30 "十五五"开年给铝消费带来新希望 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 联系人 蔺一杭 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：linyihang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03149704 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：富宝有色） 核心提示：本周废铝价格稳中上涨，幅度0-100元/吨不等，合金白料、喷涂、铝线价格表现略好于生 铝、铝屑等铸造铝合金原料；预计下周废铝偏稳运行，涨跌空间有限；铝企下游订单不温不火，成品售 价处于贴水状态、利润不足，一定程度上限制废铝原料价格反弹。但华东、西南等多地废铝市场供应偏 紧亦支持其抗跌属性较强，综合来看，预计下期废铝或延续偏稳运行。 一、国内再生铝合金市场分析 1、再生铝合金市场情况 期内A00铝锭重心继续下移，整体表现先涨后跌；截止11月27日，富宝现货A00铝价格在21440-21480 元/吨，均价21460元/吨，环比11月20日跌110元/吨；富宝现货ADC12铝合金锭价格20800元/吨，环比11 月20日平稳；目前华东地区非交割品ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20600-20800元/吨之间，华南ADC12主 流价格20900-21000元/吨，西南地区ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20800-21100元/吨，环保11月20日平 稳。交割品价格多高100-200元/吨不等。 期内铸造铝合金期货先抑后扬，主力合约盘中一度跌至2.02万附近，随后陆续抬升，扳 ...

Group 1 - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" is driving some countries to reduce the proportion of U.S. Treasury bonds in their foreign exchange reserves and increase their gold holdings, a trend that is not weakened by the easing of U.S.-China trade disputes [1][2] - The liquidity easing brought by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is accelerating the process of rising precious metals, with expectations for a price increase in 2025 due to the combination of these trends [1][2] - In 2026, the new Federal Reserve Chairman may adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting approach amid the backdrop of midterm elections, and continued increases in gold ETF holdings by European and American investors are expected to sustain the upward trend in precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - The demand for basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is expected to rise due to liquidity easing and increased physical demand driven by AI investments, while supply constraints in mining and smelting will support a steady increase in industrial metal prices [1][2] - For copper, the ongoing liquidity trend and significant potential demand from AI data centers and power grids will likely lead to a sustained upward movement in copper prices, with the possibility of exceeding expectations [1][2] - The aluminum sector is expected to maintain good profit levels due to tight supply and demand dynamics, with leading companies in the industry likely to achieve strong profitability through resource management and supply chain extension [1][2] Group 3 - The supply and demand for lithium carbonate is projected to return to a tight balance in 2026, with a significant increase in price levels driven by strong demand from energy storage and power applications [2] - The global demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow by 24.2% in 2026, with a demand growth rate of approximately 50% from energy storage and just under 20% from power batteries [2] - The supply growth for lithium is forecasted at around 18.1%, indicating a shift from a loose balance to a tight balance in the lithium market [2] Group 4 - Domestic rare earth prices are expected to rise, benefiting companies in the rare earth magnetic materials sector, as the supply side faces constraints and demand from new energy policies strengthens [2] - The growth rate for demand from sectors such as new energy vehicles, wind power, and energy-efficient variable frequency air conditioners is projected to reach 29%, 18%, and 28% respectively by 2025 [2] - The tightening of domestic rare earth supply, coupled with overseas demand for replenishment, is likely to amplify price increases, providing a dual boost to the performance and valuation of rare earth magnetic material companies [2]

波黑《独立报》11月27日报道。为应对欧洲市场需求疲软、能源成本高企及亚洲 竞争压力，全球铝业巨头挪威海德鲁公司宣布将关闭位于英国（切尔特纳姆、贝德瓦 斯）、德国（吕登沙伊德）、意大利（费尔特雷）和荷兰（德吕嫩）的五座铝型材工 厂，预计影响730个工作岗位。本次重组将产生19亿挪威克朗（约合1.8亿美元）费用， 但预计从2027年起每年可节约超5亿克朗。企业战略重心将转向低碳铝材、能源项目及 电力基础设施领域，持续推动2030年可持续发展目标。（驻波黑使馆经商处） （原标题：挪威海德鲁宣布关闭欧洲五国铝型材工厂） ...