当地时间2月13日， 俄罗斯中央银行宣布，将基准利率从16%下调至15.5%，这是俄 央行连续第六次降息 。 俄央行发布的声明称，俄罗斯经济继续回归平衡增长轨道。受一次性因素影响，1月份通胀出 现显著加速，但随着该因素消退，通胀将恢复放缓。整体上，去年11月至今年1月的物价上涨 符合央行预期。 俄央行将2026年通胀预期上调至4.5%至5.5%，但预计下半年通胀将 "接近4%"。俄央行还 预计2027年通胀将回归目标水平，目前，年化通胀率为6.3%。此外，对2026年平均基准利 率的预测区间为13.5%至14.5%。 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 央行等四部门联合发布！ 丨 黄金、白银大涨！ 丨 6月降息概率飙升！深夜，美国重磅通胀数据 公布 丨 宁德时代被纳入！港股，重大调整！ 丨 688209在互动平台"自问自答"，被 ...

Core Insights - The silver inventory at the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) is depleting at an alarming rate, potentially leading to a complete emptying of the warehouse within two months if the current outflow continues [1][2] - A significant demand for physical silver is emerging, driven by a surge in delivery requests ahead of the March contract expiration, with open interest reaching 429 million ounces while registered inventory has dropped to approximately 103.5 million ounces [4][5] Inventory Crisis - COMEX's registered silver inventory has decreased from about 167.7 million ounces in October 2025 to approximately 103.5 million ounces by early February 2026, marking a 38% decline [2][4] - The daily outflow of silver has accelerated to around 785,000 ounces, with a notable shift of approximately 43.9 million ounces of silver being transported from New York to London since January 2, 2026 [2][5] Market Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for physical silver is intensifying, with delivery requests in January 2026 reaching about 49.4 million ounces, which is 4.17 times higher than January 2025 and 7.27 times higher than January 2024 [4] - The global silver market is expected to face a structural supply shortage for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with an estimated shortfall of 67 million ounces (approximately 2,100 tons) [5][10] Impact of External Factors - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday (February 14-23, 2026) will create a market vacuum, as China is a major silver producer and consumer, potentially exacerbating delivery pressures in the international market [5][8] - The London silver leasing rates have surged, reaching an annualized rate of 6.16%, indicating extreme physical shortages and driving U.S. investment institutions to expedite silver shipments to London [2][5] Regulatory Responses - In response to the market volatility, Chinese exchanges have raised margin requirements and adjusted trading limits to mitigate risks associated with potential price fluctuations during the holiday period [8][10] Price Volatility - As of February 13, 2026, the COMEX silver price was reported at $80.88 per ounce, reflecting a significant recovery from a January low but still exhibiting high volatility due to ongoing supply concerns and market dynamics [11]

下一步，中国人民银行将加强与金融监管总局、中国证监会、农业农村部等部门的协同配合，及时总结 常态化帮扶和乡村振兴金融服务工作特色经验做法，加强统计监测与考核评估，创新乡村振兴投融资机 制，助力守住不发生规模性返贫致贫底线，推进乡村全面振兴。 附件： 为深入贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，落实《中共中央国务院关于统筹建立常态化防止返 贫致贫机制促进乡村全面振兴的意见》和《中共中央国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面 振兴的意见》部署要求，深入学习运用"千万工程"经验，加快构建过渡期后常态化金融帮扶机制，持续 提升金融支持的力度、精度和实效，扎实推进乡村全面振兴，推动城乡融合发展。近日，中国人民银 行、金融监管总局、中国证监会、农业农村部联合发布《关于统筹建立常态化金融支持机制助力防止返 贫致贫和乡村全面振兴的意见》（以下简称《意见》）。 《意见》提出，要健全重点人群开发式金融帮扶长效机制,调整优化脱贫人口小额信贷,完善农户小额信 用贷款政策，常态化支持防止返贫致贫对象发展。发挥金融助力产业帮扶带动作用，鼓励金融机构开发 特色优势产业贷款，有条件的地区可提高创业担保贷款额度上限。建立分层分类的欠发 ...

然而，这一政策并非没有显而易见的副作用。对于许多抗风险能力较弱的美国企业和个人来说，额外的 利息负担很可能成为压垮他们的最后一根稻草。即使这些企业不至于破产，它们的盈利能力也无疑会受 到严重影响。如果大量企业倒闭，生产体系的崩溃将使得美国经济陷入更加深重的危机之中。加息，虽 然旨在遏制通胀，却有可能成为经济深陷泥潭的催化剂。 实际上，美国联邦储备委员会在很早之前就 已经预告了加息的计划，但导致市场剧烈反应的并非加息本身，而是加息幅度的超预期。此前，美国社 会普遍预测此次加息幅度最多为50个基点，而美联储最终宣布了75个基点的加息幅度，远远超出了市场 的预期。这一差距让市场感到震惊，市场信心也因此受到极大冲击。 根据观察者网的报道，6月15日，美国联邦储备委员会正式宣布将基准利率上调75个基点，目的是应对 美国当前严峻的通货膨胀问题。加息政策的效果并不单一、简单，但我们可以通过一个直观的标准来理 解它。通俗来说，降息就像印钱和大放水，而加息则是收钱和大缩水。 从根本上讲，美联储通过提高 贷款利息的标准，迫使所有美国企业和个人在借款后偿还时支付更多的利息。这些额外的利息将通过银 行回流美国政府。随着市场上的美元减 ...

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 14 日 开年金融数据的几点信号 ——2026 年 1 月金融数据点评 投资要点： 事件：2 月 13 日傍晚央行披露了 1 月金融数据：新增贷款 4.71 万亿元，社融增量 7.22 万亿元。1 月末，M2 达 347.2 万亿，YoY+9.0%；M1 YoY +4.9%；社融增速 8.2%。 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 图表 3：2026 年 1 月社融增量 7.22 万亿，同比小幅多增（亿元） 资料来源：人行官网、华源证券研究所 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 第 2页/ 共 4页 联系人 1 月新增贷款同比明显少增，反映 2026 年信贷需求依然偏弱。由于"早投放早受益"， 年初银行信贷投放动力强，信贷投放节奏普遍前倾。2026 年春节较晚，春节前企业 发年终奖可能促使个人提前偿还个贷，或对 2 月份个贷数据影响较大。2025 年春节 较早，春节错位之下，1 月份新增贷款 4.71 ...

Financing Overview - In January 2026, the new social financing (社融) increased by 72,200 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1,654 billion RMB[1] - Government bond financing contributed significantly with an increase of 9,764 billion RMB, up 2,831 billion RMB year-on-year, representing 13.5% of total social financing, the highest since 2021[4] - Corporate bond financing added 5,033 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 579 billion RMB, but slightly below the three-year average of 3,471 billion RMB[1] Loan Dynamics - Financial institutions issued 47,100 billion RMB in new loans in January 2026, which is 4,200 billion RMB less than the same period last year[2] - Corporate loans accounted for 44,500 billion RMB, down 3,300 billion RMB year-on-year, while household loans increased by 4,565 billion RMB, up 127 billion RMB year-on-year[2] - The total loan balance grew by 6.10% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the end of 2025[2] Money Supply Trends - As of January 2026, M1 grew by 4.9% year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the end of 2025[3] - M2 increased by 9.0% year-on-year, up 0.5 percentage points from the end of 2025[3] - Total deposits rose by 80,900 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37,700 billion RMB, with significant contributions from fiscal deposits[3] Economic Signals - The increase in M1 and M2 indicates a strong liquidity supply and a positive signal for economic activity and capital market performance[4] - The structure of loans is improving, with a notable increase in short-term loans for enterprises, which rose by 20,500 billion RMB, up 3,100 billion RMB year-on-year[6] - The government’s proactive fiscal measures and moderate monetary easing are expected to continue supporting financing structures and economic growth[4]

编辑：G 印度财政部长去年9月就曾暗示，央行正在做出"非常审慎的决定"以实现储备多元化，而美国冻结俄罗 斯外汇储备的先例，以及特朗普政府对印度征收高达50%关税的贸易战，都让这个亚洲大国不得不重新 审视对美元资产的依赖。 与此同时，伦敦金融城的空气里弥漫着焦躁。英国养老金体系——这个曾经美国国债最忠实的拥趸，也 将美元资产的占比狠狠砍到了50%以下，原因是担忧美国人工智能领域泡沫过大以及特朗普政府政策的 不确定性。 六百秒内，一个时代悄然落幕。全球央行与养老基金不约而同抛售美债，美元储备份额跌破防线，38万 亿美元债务巨塔终发牙酸疲劳声。这预示着不安的未来：美国，昔日霸主，正被逼上绝路，甚至考虑荒 唐却致命的"主动贬值300%"自杀式疗法。 帝国黄昏 就在刚刚过去的六百秒里，那些素以"稳健得近乎保守"著称的北欧养老基金——瑞典最大的私人养老基 金阿莱克塔和丹麦的"学界养老基金"，悄无声息地完成了最后一笔交割。他们的操作指令冷酷而决绝： 将投资组合中的美国长期国债，直接清仓或大幅减持。 阿莱克塔基金在过去一年里抛售了约77亿至88亿美元的美国国债，减持比例超过70%；丹麦的学界养老 基金则宣布在1月底前出清所持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China, along with several regulatory bodies, has issued guidelines to establish a sustainable financial support mechanism aimed at preventing poverty and promoting rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Financial Services for Rural Areas - The guidelines emphasize the consolidation and standardization of bank card services for farmers, promoting specialized payment products like the "Rural Revitalization Theme Card" [1] - There is a focus on improving bank branches to be more accessible for the elderly and disabled, enhancing the financial experience for these key demographics [1] Group 2: Credit System Development - The initiative aims to strengthen the rural credit system by continuing the assessment of "credit users, credit villages, and credit towns," as well as evaluating new agricultural business entities [1] - It explores the establishment of credit assessments for rural specialty industries and aims to legally rebuild the credit of rural groups at risk of falling back into poverty [1] Group 3: Consumer Protection and Financial Literacy - The guidelines highlight the importance of protecting financial consumer rights in rural areas, including the promotion of financial knowledge and awareness to prevent illegal fundraising and telecom fraud [1] - There is an emphasis on improving the financial literacy of rural residents to enhance their understanding and engagement with financial services [1]

Loan and Credit Analysis - In January 2026, new loans to enterprises amounted to CNY 4.45 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 330 billion[2] - Short-term loans increased by CNY 2.05 trillion, up CNY 310 billion year-on-year, indicating strong demand for operational turnover and liquidity[2] - New household loans totaled CNY 456.5 billion, a slight year-on-year increase of CNY 12.7 billion, with short-term loans up CNY 159.4 billion[2] Social Financing and Monetary Data - The total social financing (TSF) in January reached CNY 7.22 trillion, an increase of CNY 166.2 billion year-on-year, marking a historical high for the month[3] - M2 growth rate rose to 9.0%, compared to 8.5% previously, while M1 growth increased to 4.9% from 3.8%[3] - The "scissors difference" between M2 and M1 narrowed to 4.1 percentage points, down from 4.7 percentage points, indicating improved liquidity dynamics[4] Structural Insights - Government bonds contributed significantly to the increase in social financing, with net financing of CNY 976.4 billion, up CNY 283.1 billion year-on-year, accounting for 13.5% of the total social financing[3] - The structure of social financing is shifting from bank loans to direct financing, with bonds and stocks making up 47% of the total financing increase in 2025, a 5 percentage point increase from the previous year[3] - The overall credit demand remains structurally weak, with effective credit demand needing further observation for comprehensive recovery[4]

因地制宜打造休闲农业、乡村旅游、民宿经济、电商直播等新产业、新业态金融服务模式 《意见》中提出，保障农业全产业链金融需求。加大农业特色产业金融支持力度，以生产流通等关键环 节为依托，在合规的前提下，开发应收账款融资、订（仓）单质押、供应链票据等供应链金融服务场 景，提供结算、融资和财务管理等综合性金融服务。金融机构要积极对接核心企业及仓储、物流、运输 等环节的管理系统，实现信息互联互通，提高服务能力和风险控制水平。积极对接全国农业品牌精品培 育计划，针对优势特色产业集群等建立批量化授信模式，提高服务效率。因地制宜打造休闲农业、乡村 旅游、民宿经济、电商直播等新产业、新业态金融服务模式，进一步拓展、提升农业综合收益。 来源：中国人民银行网站 2月14日消息，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、中国证监会、农业农村部印发《关于统筹建立常态化金 融支持机制 助力防止返贫致贫和乡村全面振兴的意见》。 其中提出，构建资本市场综合支持体系。加大农村地区企业上市辅导培育力度，帮助更多企业利用多层 次资本市场进行融资。对注册地在原脱贫地区的企业继续实施上市"绿色通道"政策。支持符合条件的上 市企业通过增发、配股、发行可转债、公司债等 ...