1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High oil prices may push up US inflation, and if WTI oil prices remain above $90 per barrel for a long time, it could drive the US CPI year - on - year increase back above 3% or even 4%, affecting the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the US Treasury market. The longer high oil prices persist, the greater their upward potential may be [3] - Whether the US can provide escort in the Strait of Hormuz is a key factor for the persistence of oil price shocks. The US government has considered the escort option, but security risks have prevented its implementation [3] - Tensions between the US and Iran around Kharg Island have escalated, increasing the risk of sharp fluctuations in international oil prices [3] - Next week, the international financial and commodity markets should focus on the US - Iran game around Kharg Island and when the US can provide escort in the Strait of Hormuz [1][3] - International oil prices continued to rise, while domestic meat and vegetable prices declined this week. There were also changes in the prices and indicators of other commodities such as copper, aluminum, and steel [3] - The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in February and March 2026 decreased compared to the same period in 2025 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - frequency Data Scan - Next week, focus on the US - Iran game around Kharg Island and when the US can provide escort in the Strait of Hormuz [1][3] 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The document provides multiple charts showing the relationships between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators such as industrial added value, PPI, CPI, etc., including the relationship between copper spot prices and industrial added value, and between RJ/CRB price index and export amount [19][28][55] 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The document shows charts related to US weekly economic indicators, real economic growth rate, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the central banks of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [85][89][93] 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The document presents the seasonal trends (in terms of month - on - month increases) of various high - frequency data, including 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, LME copper spot settlement price, and Brent crude oil futures settlement price [98][106][112] 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The document shows the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [144][145][146]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market has shown resilience compared to overseas markets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, indicating a core pricing logic focused on domestic factors [1][11][12] - The report emphasizes that the current oil price surge, driven by geopolitical conflicts, is more severe than historical instances, with oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel and significant disruptions in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz [1][29][30] - The analysis of past geopolitical conflicts suggests that the current situation is unprecedented, with a drastic reduction in commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply significantly [1][29][30] Group 2 - The report discusses the structural implications of the HALO trading phenomenon, suggesting that the current market dynamics require a balanced approach rather than an overemphasis on technology stocks [3][50] - It argues that the current economic environment necessitates a "new and old coexistence" strategy, focusing on resource products, cyclical chemicals, AI applications, and machinery for export [3][50] - The report indicates that the PPI stabilization and the geopolitical context are driving price increases in resource products, which may lead to a more volatile pricing environment [3][51] Group 3 - The report notes that the 2026 strategy does not support a weak dollar assumption, as high oil prices are expected to strengthen the dollar due to increased oil export profits returning to the U.S. [2][39][44] - It highlights that the historical negative correlation between oil prices and the dollar is changing, with the U.S. now benefiting from being a net oil exporter [2][39] - The report emphasizes that the current oil price dynamics will likely compel the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates, countering previous expectations of a weaker dollar [2][39] Group 4 - The report identifies key sectors contributing to the A-share market's performance, including electronics, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, machinery, and telecommunications, which are crucial for the "outbound + technology" dual mainline strategy [54][55][57] - It suggests that the current market may exhibit resilience despite potential stagflation impacts, although structural differentiation among sectors is expected to intensify [54][56] - The report outlines that the government’s economic targets for 2026 reflect a more flexible approach, prioritizing structural adjustments and risk prevention over high growth rates [60]

[地缘政治 Table_NewTitle]影响近期资产配置走势，高油 价下的科技驱动力较强 [Table_Reportdate] 2026年03月15日 ——资产配置周报（2026/03/09-2026/03/13） [table_main] 投资要点 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伟业 S0630526020001 cwy@longone.com.cn 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 [Table_Report] ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。3月13日当周，全球主要股市涨跌不一，A股表现相对较好；主要商品 期货中原油、铝收涨，黄金、铜收跌； ...

Market Performance - As of March 13, 2026, the North Exchange A-share index has 298 constituent stocks with an average market capitalization of 3.006 billion yuan[26] - The North Exchange 50 index decreased by 2.15% compared to the previous week's closing price[6] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares was approximately 19.729 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.71% from the previous week[6] Industry Insights - The International Energy Agency reported that the global oil market is facing the most severe supply disruptions in history due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, with a projected drop in global crude oil supply by about 8 million barrels per day in March[18] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by 695 yuan and 670 yuan per ton, respectively, effective March 9, 2026, due to rising international oil prices[11] Investment Recommendations - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various markets as of March 13, 2026, are as follows: North Exchange A-shares at 64.52, ChiNext at 73.60, Shanghai Main Board at 14.25, Shenzhen Main Board at 44.38, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 228.45[39] - Investors are advised to focus on stocks with earnings exceeding expectations and those in innovative growth sectors that align with industrial policies, as well as undervalued stocks[39] Risks - Policy risks may affect market stability, particularly if key institutional advancements do not meet expectations[40] - Liquidity risks persist, as the North Exchange's overall liquidity remains lower than that of the main boards, which could lead to insufficient liquidity during market sentiment shifts[40] - External environmental volatility, including U.S. interest rate policies and geopolitical risks, may disrupt market sentiment and capital flows[40]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the four stages of asset pricing under geopolitical conflict, emphasizing how market reactions evolve from initial emotional responses to the formation of new trading frameworks. Group 1: Stages of Asset Pricing - The first stage is the "Emotional Shock Stage," where risk-averse trading dominates, leading to a shift towards safe-haven assets like precious metals and currencies, while risk assets like stocks decline. This phase is typically short-lived, lasting 1-3 trading days [2] - The second stage is the "Differentiated Reaction Stage," where risk-averse trading continues but event-driven trading gains traction. The market begins to differentiate between sectors that benefit or suffer from geopolitical events, focusing on fundamentals and liquidity [3] - The third stage is the "Impact Diminution Stage," where both risk-averse and event-driven trading persist, but the influence of geopolitical tail risks decreases. This stage sees the emergence of recovery trading and the formation of new trading lines [4] - The fourth stage is the "New Framework Formation Stage," where the geopolitical impact is largely absorbed, and the market establishes a new equilibrium with consensus on new trading lines [5] Group 2: Global Market Reactions - Global equity markets are under pressure, currently in the "Differentiated Reaction Stage," with technology stocks experiencing broad declines while energy and defensive sectors see gains. The S&P 500 fear index has dropped to -275.01, indicating cautious market sentiment [6] - The global commodity market shows significant differentiation, with oil prices rising due to geopolitical risk premiums, while gold prices fluctuate in response to the dollar's strength. Brent crude oil futures rose by 11.27% to $103.14 per barrel [8] - The global bond market is facing upward pressure on yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.3%. The bond market is increasingly focused on inflation expectations driven by rising oil prices [10][11] Group 3: Geopolitical Impact on Supply Chains - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is causing direct supply shocks, particularly affecting global oil, LPG, LNG, and refined petroleum products. The Middle East accounts for approximately 31% of global oil production [32] - The transportation of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, with shipping traffic down by 97% since the onset of conflict, impacting global oil trade [33] - The indirect supply shocks are affecting industries reliant on oil and gas, including refining, chemicals, and fertilizers, with potential ripple effects throughout the supply chain [34][35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests that if energy issues persist, expectations for overseas recession may increase significantly [2][3] - The report indicates that the U.S. dollar may benefit from prolonged energy issues, potentially aiding the U.S. in maintaining credit expansion temporarily [3] - New energy transactions are expected to outperform in the context of high energy costs combined with recession expectations [3][18] - The report highlights that if energy issues continue, the price transmission in agriculture may be better than in industrial sectors [3][19] - The medium-term outlook is positive for coal, new energy, agriculture, electricity, oil, and U.S. capital goods related to inflation [3] - The long-term outlook favors insurance, central state-owned enterprises, anti-involution strategies, and Chinese internet companies [3] Group 2 - The report notes that the U.S. inflation de-escalation process is showing signs of slowing down, with the overall CPI rising to 0.3% month-on-month, driven by energy prices [8][12] - Core CPI has slightly decreased to 0.2% month-on-month but remains stable at 2.5% year-on-year, indicating that inflation levels are still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2% [8][10] - The report emphasizes that core services inflation remains sticky, with housing prices increasing by 3.0% year-on-year and healthcare services accelerating to 4.1% [10][12] - The report discusses the impact of energy disruptions on overseas recession expectations, indicating that prolonged energy issues could lead to a significant increase in recession probabilities [17] - It is noted that agricultural prices may transmit better than industrial prices due to the rigid demand for food and the direct impact of rising energy costs [19]

Price Trends - The current price increase is a result of multiple domestic and international factors, expected to continue at least until mid-Q2 2026[3] - Domestic carbon reduction targets may catalyze supply-side policy intensification, institutionalizing the "anti-involution" trend[3] - Geopolitical conflicts have amplified oil price increases, with Brent crude expected to average around $80 per barrel this year, potentially keeping PPI positive[3][4] Economic Indicators - Post-holiday production and economic indicators are steadily recovering, with most year-on-year growth rates improving[5] - The oil transportation index (BDTI) saw a year-on-year growth rate drop from 248% to 180%, indicating a peak in trade disruptions[5][19] - PPI is expected to turn positive in March if Brent crude averages above $77 per barrel[3][14] Financial Market Insights - The dollar index has surpassed 100, indicating tightening liquidity, while gold prices are under pressure[4][17] - The 10-year government bond yield has slightly increased to 1.81%, reflecting rising concerns about input inflation[24][25] - The market is advised to monitor liquidity closely, as the value of oil and the dollar as hedges becomes more pronounced[4][17] Risks and Future Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict presents high uncertainty regarding asset prices and could lead to significant market volatility[7][26] - The path of domestic demand recovery remains uncertain, influenced by the sustainability of price increases and external risk shocks[7][26]

Group 1: Event Overview - On the evening of March 13, 2026, US President Trump announced that the US military had launched a "severe air strike" on military targets on Kharg Island, Iran's oil export hub, while deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure and targeting only military targets [1] - Trump also stated that if Iran or any other party takes any action to interfere with the free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, he will immediately reconsider this decision [1] Group 2: Importance of Kharg Island - Kharg Island is located in the northern Persian Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, and is the strategic core of Iran's oil industry [1] - In the past six months, the daily average export volume of this hub was 1.453 million barrels, accounting for 93.16% of Iran's total exports and 7% - 9% of the transportation volume in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - Approximately 98% of the crude oil exported from this island is shipped to China, meaning that almost all of China's oil imports from Iran rely on Kharg Island for shipment. If the island is paralyzed due to military harassment, about 13% of China's crude oil imports will be directly affected [1] Group 3: Impact and Risks - Oil revenue is an important part of the Iranian government's budget and a key source of funds for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' overseas operations and missile research and development [2] - Trump's strategy of pressuring Iran by "occupying Kharg Island" faces significant backlash risks [2] - The Iranian armed forces have clearly warned that once Iran's oil, economic, or energy infrastructure is attacked, all oil, economic, and energy infrastructure related to the United States will be destroyed [2] - If the conflict further escalates and worsens, and the energy facilities of other oil - producing countries in the Gulf region are attacked, the global oil supply will fall into a more serious crisis, leading to an out - of - control surge in global oil prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - If the average oil price reaches $100 per barrel this year, U.S. producers will be among the biggest beneficiaries, with an estimated additional cash flow of over $60 billion for U.S. oil companies due to the recent conflict in the Middle East [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Oil Producers - U.S. shale oil companies are expected to benefit significantly from the additional cash flow, with predictions of $63.4 billion in revenue growth if oil prices remain high [3]. - The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil settled at $98.71 per barrel, indicating a strong market response to geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 2: Challenges for International Oil Companies - Major international oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron face more complex situations due to their extensive assets in the Gulf region, which are more vulnerable to disruptions [3][4]. - Shell announced that its liquefied natural gas shipments from Qatar faced force majeure due to production halts at facilities it partially owns [4]. - Analysts indicate that the reliance on Middle Eastern supplies has negatively impacted ExxonMobil's stock performance compared to its peers, with its stock only rising 2% since the crisis began [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs reported that approximately 18 million barrels of oil per day are still blocked from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, significantly impacting global oil supply [4]. - The Royal Bank of Canada predicts that Brent crude prices could exceed $128 per barrel in the coming weeks due to ongoing conflicts [4]. - Companies with minimal exposure to the Middle East, such as Equinor, have seen their stock prices rise significantly, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards firms less affected by supply disruptions [7][8]. Group 4: Structural Changes in the Oil Market - The ongoing crisis may lead to a structural change in the oil market, with potential shifts in energy policies and increased interest in domestic energy sources [8]. - Analysts suggest that the unprecedented closure of the Strait of Hormuz is viewed as a structural risk change in the oil market, prompting a reevaluation of energy strategies globally [8].

Liquidity Data - The US Dollar Index surged 1.6% to 100.5, the highest since November last year, driven by geopolitical tensions[2] - Brent crude oil rebounded to over $103 per barrel, following initial declines, influenced by US-Iran tensions and Trump's remarks[2] - Precious metals faced pressure, with gold down 2.9% and silver down 4.6% for the week[2] - Southbound funds in Hong Kong saw a net inflow of HKD 52.4 billion from March 9 to 12, while overseas investors recorded a net inflow of HKD 5.4 billion from March 5 to 11[2] Market Insights - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 14.2 basis points to 4.27%, reflecting increasing inflation concerns[13] - The coal sector is expected to enter a new upcycle, with a confirmed bottom in Q2 2025[37] - Energy storage demand is surging, leading to tighter lithium supply[37] - Urea prices have significantly increased due to Middle Eastern tensions, with a projected 20% rise in the fertilizer index by 2025[43] - The Hong Kong market saw a rise in short-selling activity, with the overall short-selling ratio increasing to 21%[18]