Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to focus on reform in areas such as building a modern industrial system, a unified national market, and improving social security. There may be further emphasis on green development, and attention is paid to whether a GDP growth target will be set [1]. - The stock index is entering a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter and become more balanced [2][10]. - Precious metals are strengthening due to factors like trade tensions, potential Fed policy changes, and deteriorating US fiscal conditions. However, there may be adjustments after rapid rises [3][19]. - For oils and fats, palm oil exports are growing, providing some price support, but the market may be pressured by macro - disturbances [3][28]. Section Summaries I. General Situation and Outlook - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be released around October 28. The macro - economy shows positive trends in exports, CPI, and PPI. There are weather and climate phenomena such as cold snaps and a possible La Nina event [1]. II. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: After a high - level shock in September, it's in a direction - selection phase. Domestic and external funds may flow in, and the market style may shift in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rising. Factors include trade tensions, Fed policy hints, and US government issues. There are risks of adjustments [3][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the market may be affected by macro - factors [3][28]. III. Daily News - **International News**: Trump is signaling trade relaxation, and the US may face a "tariff refund" situation if it loses a court case [5]. - **Domestic News**: The China Shipowners' Association has deepened cooperation with international shipping institutions [6]. - **Industry News**: India's oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October [7]. IV. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, ICE Brent crude, and the US dollar index rose, while the FTSE China A50 futures, London gold, and London silver declined [9]. V. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key variety analysis, it's in a direction - selection phase with potential fund inflows and a possible style shift [2][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price is supported by a loose monetary policy environment. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the domestic economy has positive and negative factors. The central bank may continue with a loose policy [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The price decline is due to geopolitical stability and reduced demand. OPEC's actions in November are crucial for the price trend [13]. - **Methanol**: The开工 rate of related devices is decreasing, and inventory is rising. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, but weather and trade negotiations can affect the price [15]. - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by crude oil and market sentiment, with a possible slowdown in the decline [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The inventory of glass is increasing, and that of soda ash is slightly decreasing. The market is cautious, and consumption and policies are key factors [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The same as the key variety analysis, with growth and adjustment risks [3][19]. - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the demand varies by industry. The Indonesia mine accident may support the price [20]. - **Zinc**: The processing fee is rising, and the price may follow copper. The domestic price may be weaker than the international one [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, with limited fluctuations [22]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is strong in the short - term but may face a high - level shock. The steel - making profit and production are key factors [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported by steel production, and the supply has decreased. The price is expected to be strong [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is mixed. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with a mid - term bullish view [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean crushing data is positive, but the domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the price [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key variety analysis, with palm oil exports supporting the price and macro - factors causing pressure [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [29]. - **Cotton**: The US market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic market has a production increase expectation and weak downstream demand [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a game for the year - end peak season. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the far - month price is related to the Israel - Palestine negotiation [31].

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation in the US-China rivalry is marked by the US imposing additional port fees on Chinese vessels, prompting a swift retaliatory response from China with a new fee structure for US-operated ships [1][3]. Group 1: US-China Port Fee Dispute - The US began charging extra port fees on Chinese-built vessels starting October 14, 2023, which has led to China's immediate implementation of a special port fee for US ships docking in Chinese ports, effective from October 14, 2025, at a rate of 400 RMB per net ton [1]. - The criteria for the fee include ships operated by US entities or those with 25% or more US ownership, which may inadvertently affect vessels owned by other countries due to the minority US stake [3]. Group 2: Strategic Response - China is advised to adopt a strategy of countering in areas where it holds advantages, rather than passively responding to US actions, particularly in the maritime sector where China has a significant global presence in shipping and shipbuilding [5]. - The suggestion is to shift the battleground to the aviation sector, where the US has a dominant market share, by imposing additional airport usage fees on US-made passenger and cargo aircraft operating in China, thereby increasing operational costs for US airlines [7]. - This approach not only aims to create economic pressure on the US but also seeks to exploit potential divisions among US allies, particularly in the context of competition between major aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. is showing signs of a potential withdrawal of tariffs against China, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stating that the previously mentioned 100% tariffs will not be implemented, indicating a desire for a more rational approach to trade relations [2][4] - China's countermeasures include new regulations on rare earths and special port fees for U.S. vessels, effective from October 14, which directly respond to U.S. charges on China's maritime and logistics sectors [2][3] - The countermeasures reflect China's determination and policy predictability, contrasting with the erratic nature of U.S. trade policies, and are compliant with international law [3][6] Group 2 - The additional fees for over 10,000 U.S. containers could reach up to $1 million, placing economic pressure on U.S. shipping companies and potentially leading them to lobby the U.S. government [3] - China's phased implementation strategy for the countermeasures allows the market time to adapt and leaves room for future negotiations, demonstrating a cautious approach [3][6] - The strategic significance of China's response lies in its use of more precise tools beyond traditional tariffs, targeting the relatively weaker U.S. shipbuilding industry to maximize the impact of its countermeasures [3][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - High - frequency economic data shows that the production side is stable with a slight increase, the coke oven and PX operating rates decline, the tire operating rate rebounds significantly, and the asphalt operating rate is at a high level [1][31]. - The transaction volume of commercial housing and land supply area are generally at a low level, and seasonal improvement may occur in the near future [1][31]. - After the holiday, the number of executed flights decreases, while the subway passenger volume and congestion index in cities increase [1][31]. - The price trend is differentiated. Crude oil and rebar prices decline, while coking coal, copper, and aluminum prices rise. The overall price of agricultural products increases, but the prices of pork and eggs drop significantly [1][31]. - In the short term, focus on the incremental policies of the Fourth Plenary Session and the 14th Five - Year Plan, Sino - US trade policies, and the recovery of the real estate market [1][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Production: Rebar Production Continues to Decline, Tire Operating Rate Rebounds Significantly - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate decreases by 0.96 pct, the blast furnace operating rate remains flat, and the rebar production decreases by 2.24 tons. The inventory of rebar also decreases by 7.7 tons [10]. - Petroleum asphalt: The operating rate increases by 1.3 pct and is at a relatively high level in recent years [10]. - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate decreases by 1.9 pct, while the PTA operating rate increases by 1.57 pct [10]. - Automobile tires: The operating rate rebounds significantly after the holiday. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.56 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 26.21 pct [11]. 2. Demand: Commercial Housing Transactions Increase Slightly at a Low Level, SCFI Rebounds Significantly - Real estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds slightly at a low level, the inventory - to - sales ratio increases, the land supply area decreases, and the transaction premium rate of residential land decreases [14]. - Movie box office: In the week of October 5, it increases by 1.087 billion yuan compared with the previous week [14]. - Automobile: In the week of October 12, the daily average retail sales of manufacturers increase by 41,000 vehicles, and the daily average wholesale sales increase by 46,000 vehicles [16]. - Shipping index: In the week of October 17, SCFI rebounds by 12.92%, CCFI decreases by 4.11%, and BDI increases by 6.87% [19]. 3. Prices: Crude Oil and Rebar Prices Decline, Coking Coal, Copper, and Aluminum Prices Rise - Energy: The Brent crude oil price drops by 2.3% to $61.29 per barrel [21]. - Coking coal: The futures price rises by 1.67% to 1,184.5 yuan per ton [21]. - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +2.25%, +1.18%, and - 1.41% respectively compared with the previous week, and the domestic rebar futures price decreases by 1.96% [22]. - Agricultural products: The overall price increases, with the wholesale price index of agricultural products rising by 1.13%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by - 3.94%, - 4.45%, +2.42%, and +0.28% respectively compared with the previous week [24]. 4. Logistics: After the Holiday, Subway Passenger Volume and Urban Congestion Index Rebound Significantly, and the Number of Executed Flights Decreases Significantly - Subway passenger volume: In Beijing and Shanghai, it rebounds significantly after the holiday. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by about 3.28 million person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by about 3.04 million person - times [27]. - Executed flights: After the holiday, the number of domestic and international executed flights decreases significantly. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) executed flights decreases by 10.22%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 5.8%, and that of international flights decreases by 4.44% [29]. - Urban traffic: The peak congestion index of first - tier cities rebounds significantly after the holiday, with the seven - day moving average increasing by 34.16% [29]. 5. Summary: Asphalt Operating Rate is at a High Level, Crude Oil and Pork Prices are Low The high - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production, demand, logistics, and prices. The production side is stable with a slight increase; the demand side is at a low level with potential seasonal improvement; the logistics situation shows a post - holiday adjustment; and the price trend is differentiated. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and the real estate market recovery [31].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation (招商南油) has shown a mixed performance in recent trading sessions, with a slight increase in price and notable trading volume, indicating active market interest [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 20, the stock price of China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation rose by 2.22% to 3.23 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 279 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.83%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 15.51 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock has increased by 3.19%, with a 0.62% rise over the last five trading days, a 1.52% decline over the last 20 days, and a 13.33% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a trading board for stocks with significant trading activity) three times this year, with the most recent appearance on September 8, where it recorded a net purchase of 102 million CNY [1]. Group 2: Company Overview - China Merchants Nanjing Tanker Corporation, established on September 8, 1993, and listed on January 8, 2019, is based in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, and primarily engages in oil transportation along coastal and international routes [2]. - The company's revenue composition includes: 57.92% from refined oil transportation, 28.82% from crude oil transportation, 7.20% from chemical transportation, 3.07% from ethylene transportation, 2.28% from crew leasing, and 0.67% from other services [2]. - As of September 30, the number of shareholders decreased by 9.83% to 127,700, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 10.91% to 37,599 shares [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.772 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 21.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 570 million CNY, down 53.28% year-on-year [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the largest circulating shareholder was Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 64.1352 million shares, a decrease of 7.0947 million shares from the previous period [2].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities reports that Pacific Shipping's third-quarter performance was generally in line with expectations, with slightly weak freight rates, but an improvement in locked-in freight rates for the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is expected to be exempt from paying port fees in the US and China, but regulatory uncertainty remains until further discussions with regulatory bodies occur [1] - The average earnings per share forecast for Pacific Shipping from 2025 to 2027 has been raised by 7% to reflect strong performance in the spot market for the fourth quarter of this year [1] Group 2: Ratings and Valuation - The rating remains "Neutral" due to reasonable current valuation levels, despite the target price being raised from HKD 2.4 to HKD 2.75 [1] - The outlook for the dry bulk market in 2026 remains unclear, contributing to the cautious stance on the company's rating [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The shipping market shows a volatile trend. The European main - contract prices have increased due to the impact of the news that the Ministry of Commerce has taken counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. and its US - related subsidiaries. The European shipping line is in the year - end price - holding stage, with the first round of price - holding in late October showing initial results, and it has entered the second round in early November. The market is concerned about the impact of Sino - US relations and relevant policies on the shipping capacity supply. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Spot Freight Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1310, up 12.92% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 973, down 4.11%. SCFI - US West is at 1936, up 31.88%; SCFIS - US West is at 862, down 1.60%; SCFI - US East is at 2853, up 16.35%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is at 1145, up 7.21%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is at 1031, down 1.43%; SCFI - Mediterranean is at 1613, up 3.53% [4]. - **Contract Freight Index**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the price fluctuations are relatively small, with the highest increase of 2.99% (EC5602) and the largest decrease of 0.36% (EC2510) [4]. - **Position and Change**: Positions like EC2606, EC2608, etc., have different changes. For example, EC2606 position decreased by 2, while EC2608 increased by 28 [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently - 557.8, down 7.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 spread is 182.7, down 39.2; the 12 - 4 spread is 530.7, down 0.5 [4]. 3.2 Market News - US Vice - President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Israel next Tuesday to promote the implementation of the Gaza war cease - fire agreement. There are still uncertainties about "Hamas disarmament" and "Gaza demilitarization" [5]. - Egypt claims to have lost over $9 billion due to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping [5]. - The US may soon announce a tariff exemption list, and lobbying for tariff exemption or inclusion of certain goods is expected to intensify [5]. - US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia next week to prevent the escalation of the Sino - US tariff war [5]. - The White House envoy Steve Witkoff will go to the Middle East on Sunday evening to follow up on the implementation of the Gaza cease - fire agreement [5]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has postponed the discussion of the "Net Zero Framework" (NZF) by one year [6]. 3.3 Market Situation and Strategy - **Market Situation**: The market is in a volatile state. Affected by the news of counter - measures against relevant companies and concerns about Sino - US relations, the European shipping line is in the year - end price - holding stage. The first round of price - holding in late October stopped the decline, and it has entered the second round in early November. Future price - holding actions are also expected [6]. - **Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in Sino - US relations, end - of - month loading conditions, and November blank sailings [6].

三花智控(02050)涨超6%，上调回购股份价格上限，近期机器人领域催化密集。 亿都国际(00259)盘中涨超11%，沐曦科创板IPO即将上会，亿都旗下算丰参投沐曦且合作紧密。 太平洋航运(02343)涨超3%，中美港口费暂无影响，机构料其四季度日均收入环比进一步上涨。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数涨2.41%，涨608点，报25855点；恒生科技指数涨3.21%。港股早盘成 交1454亿港元。 芯片股多数走高。上海复旦(01385)涨6.51%，中芯国际(00981)涨超4%，华虹半导体(01347)涨超4%。招 商证券认为，在美国持续加强出口管制背景下，国内自主可控进程加速。 游戏股涨幅居前。政策支持及出海趋势提振游戏行业，机构看好后续催化。网易-S(09999)涨5%；腾讯 (00700)涨3.78%。 航空股延续近期涨势，油价下滑叠加人民币强势，航司盈利或能进一步增长。东方航空(00670)涨9%； 南方航空(01055)涨5.4%；中国国航(00753)涨5.78%。 老铺黄金(06181)回落逾6%，月内仍涨超10%，公司预告年内第三次提价。 报道称蚂蚁等暂停在港发行稳定币计划，云锋金融(00 ...

Core Points - Shanghai Jihai Shipping Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Shanghai Port Group (600018.SH), received a fine from the Zhenjiang Maritime Bureau for not following designated navigation routes or rules [1][2] - The fine amounts to 3,000 RMB, as per the administrative penalty decision dated October 17, 2025 [2] Company Summary - Shanghai Jihai Shipping Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 with a registered capital of 25 million RMB [2] - The company is wholly owned by Shanghai Port Group through its subsidiary, Shanghai Port Yangtze River Logistics Co., Ltd. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping capacity utilization rate has reached a threshold, leading to an increase in freight rate centrality, with greater volatility expected in freight rates. The supply-demand dynamics are anticipated to improve over the next few years, supporting a continued rise in freight rate centrality, suggesting a focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations [1] Group 1: Oil Shipping - Oil shipping rates remain high, with the Middle East to China VLCC-TCE maintaining above $80,000, reflecting strong shipowner sentiment. China's countermeasures against U.S. sanctions may lead to a preference for non-U.S. vessels, potentially reducing effective capacity and increasing rates in the U.S.-China shipping market [2] - The global oil supply has entered a production increase cycle, reaffirming that rising oil production is beneficial for oil shipping demand. The supply of oil tankers remains rigid, and the oil shipping supply-demand balance is expected to improve over the next two years, with the added benefit of options for falling oil prices [5] Group 2: Product Oil Shipping - The MR TCE for product oil shipping on the new Australia route continues to be supported by soaring rates in the western market, maintaining above $20,000. Recent rates have shown stability and slight increases, with expectations for rates to improve gradually in 2025 [2] Group 3: Dry Bulk Shipping - The dry bulk shipping sector is influenced by the mutual port fee policies between China and the U.S., leading to significant increases in FFA contract prices, which in turn boost spot prices. Future attention will be on the increase in remote mining production [2] - The global iron ore production cycle has begun, particularly with the imminent launch of the Simandou mega project, which is expected to drive demand growth beyond expectations. The supply growth is anticipated to be low in the coming years, suggesting a gradual recovery in the dry bulk shipping market [6] Group 4: Container Shipping - Container shipping rates have faced pressure due to seasonal cargo volume declines, but shipping companies have announced price increases in November, resulting in a two-week consecutive rise in rates [3] - The impact of tariff policies continues, with attention on the restructuring and differentiation of shipping alliances. The sustainability of the shipping market's high profitability over the past five years will depend on tariff and economic expectations [4]