Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a decline in average working hours and operating rates, indicating potential challenges ahead for the sector [1][6]. Group 1: Working Hours and Operating Rates - In June 2025, the average working hours for major engineering machinery products was 77.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9.11% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.56% [1]. - Specific working hours for various machinery in June 2025 included: excavators at 64.2 hours, loaders at 92.7 hours, and concrete pump trucks at 42.7 hours [1]. - The operating rate for major engineering machinery products in June 2025 was 56.9%, down 7.55 percentage points year-on-year and 2.65 percentage points month-on-month [1]. - Operating rates for specific machinery included: excavators at 58.2%, loaders at 59.5%, and concrete pump trucks at 37.7% [1]. Group 2: Historical Data Review - In May 2025, the average working hours were 84.5 hours, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.86% [6]. - In April 2025, the average working hours were 90.1 hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.20% [6]. - The average working hours in February 2025 were significantly higher at 46.4 hours, with a year-on-year increase of 70.3% [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The engineering machinery industry is expected to see improvements in operating rates, with February showing signs of recovery [9]. - January 2025 experienced a strong credit opening, reinforcing expectations for a rebound in domestic demand within the engineering machinery sector [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, which imposes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, is expected to improve export chain sentiment [12][6] - The manufacturing PMI in China showed a slight recovery in June 2025, indicating improved new orders and production indices, which may contribute to a positive outlook for the industry [12][24] Company Summaries 1) Jiao Cheng Ultrasonic - The company focuses on ultrasonic equipment and solutions, achieving a revenue of 148 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.35%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 23.63 million yuan, up 2152.47% [3][13] - The business recovery in the new energy sector, particularly in lithium battery expansion, is expected to bring performance elasticity [13] 2) Zhenghe Industrial - Engaged in the research, manufacturing, and sales of various chain transmission systems, the company reported a revenue of 395 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 6.32% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 53.84 million yuan, up 100.09% [4][14] - The company is developing a micro-chain system project, focusing on robotic dexterous hand transmission technology, which may benefit from the mass production of humanoid robots [14] 3) Lvtian Machinery - The main products include general power machinery and high-pressure cleaning machines, with energy storage products entering mass production. Revenue growth rates for Q3 2024, Q4 2024, and Q1 2025 are projected at 47.9%, 72.5%, and 50.1%, respectively [5][15] - The company is expected to experience a performance turning point, indicating a positive outlook for valuation recovery [15] Industry Overview - The mechanical index (CITIC) increased by 0.41% last week, while the overall market indices also showed positive growth [16][19] - The manufacturing sector's fixed asset investment in China grew by 8.5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, indicating a recovery trend [24]

Core Viewpoint - Changsha is focusing on building a modern industrial system by enhancing industrial chain collaboration, transforming traditional industries, and nurturing emerging industries, which is essential for regional economic vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Development Strategy - The strategy emphasizes the importance of creating a complete industrial chain and fostering collaborative industrial clusters to enhance regional economic resilience [1][3]. - Changsha has established 17 industrial chains, including engineering machinery and advanced energy storage materials, leading to the emergence of six trillion-level manufacturing industry clusters [10][14]. - The "chain-long system" initiated in 2017 aims to connect upstream and downstream supply chains, promoting collaborative development among enterprises [9][17]. Group 2: Case Studies and Examples - The introduction of Guangdong Bangpu Recycling Technology Co., Ltd. in 2007 marked an early investment in the lithium battery new energy sector, showcasing proactive industrial layout [4]. - The advanced energy storage materials industry in Changsha has maintained a stable output value at the billion-level despite a 90% drop in lithium carbonate prices, thanks to a complete industrial chain [11][12]. - The establishment of the "Changsha Sodium-Ion Battery Innovation Alliance" in 2022 demonstrates a strategic move to capture new market opportunities in sodium-ion battery technology [13]. Group 3: Ecosystem and Future Planning - Changsha is building an "industrial forest ecosystem" that integrates various industries, ensuring mutual growth and resource sharing among enterprises [19][20]. - The "4433" modern industrial system includes four pillar industries, four emerging industries, three traditional industries, and three future industries, indicating a comprehensive approach to industrial development [21][23]. - The city is learning from other major cities to explore paths for emerging and future industries, enhancing its competitive edge in advanced manufacturing [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the issue of "involution" in various industries, particularly in the automotive sector, where excessive competition leads to low profit margins despite high production and sales volumes [1][11][30]. Group 1: Involution in Industries - The automotive industry's profit margin in Q1 2024 was only 3.9%, contrasting sharply with the industry's vibrant public image and record production and sales [1]. - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a decline in profitability due to chaotic price wars, which are a manifestation of "involution" [1][15]. - Other sectors such as photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and express delivery are also suffering from similar "involution" issues, leading to widespread concern [1][11]. Group 2: Causes of Involution - "Involution" is characterized by competition that does not lead to growth, often resulting in inefficiencies and resource wastage [2][5]. - Factors contributing to "involution" include local government policies that encourage unhealthy competition, supply-demand imbalances, and inadequate legal frameworks [6][22]. - The phenomenon is exacerbated by companies engaging in price wars to maintain market share, even at the cost of profitability [5][20]. Group 3: Impact of Involution - Excessive competition leads to resource wastage and hinders innovation, as companies focus on survival rather than development [3][4]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in LED lighting and other industries, faces significant challenges due to low-price competition, which discourages investment in research and development [3][4]. - The automotive industry's low profit margins also negatively impact upstream suppliers, such as steel manufacturers, creating a ripple effect throughout the supply chain [16]. Group 4: Government and Industry Response - The central government has recognized the urgency of addressing "involution" and has called for comprehensive measures to regulate competition and promote healthy market practices [11][12]. - Various government departments are implementing policies to combat "involution," including stricter regulations on government procurement and industry standards [12][13]. - Industry associations are advocating for self-regulation and the establishment of fair competition practices to mitigate the effects of "involution" [14][30]. Group 5: Future Directions - Companies are encouraged to innovate and shift from "stock competition" to "incremental creation" to escape the cycle of "involution" [20][21]. - The government is focusing on optimizing industrial layouts and preventing the expansion of outdated capacities to foster a healthier competitive environment [26][27]. - Strengthening intellectual property protections and ensuring fair competition are essential steps to combat the adverse effects of "involution" [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [22]. Core Insights - The export value of China's construction machinery in May 2025 reached USD 5.024 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 8.51%. Cumulative exports from January to May totaled USD 23.095 billion, up 8.98% year-on-year. The top three export destinations were Russia, the United States, and Indonesia [2]. - The export of excavators in May amounted to USD 889 million, with a year-on-year growth of 26.57%. From January to May, the cumulative export value was USD 4.001 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.81% [2]. - The photovoltaic sector experienced a short-term rise in polysilicon prices, while prices in the battery segment fell. The average price for N-type polysilicon was CNY 36 per kilogram, and for granular silicon, it was CNY 34 per kilogram. The demand in downstream segments remains weak, leading to limited market transactions [2]. - The report indicates that the overseas market for construction machinery will continue to expand due to the Belt and Road Initiative and the increasing competitiveness of domestic manufacturers. Domestic demand for infrastructure will also drive replacement needs, indicating a clear upward trend in the overall cycle [2]. Market Performance Review - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the indices for machinery equipment, power equipment, and automotive sectors changed by 0.26%, 1.99%, and 0.1%, respectively, ranking 24th, 9th, and 25th among 31 first-level industries in the Shenwan classification [7][10]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector saw a significant increase of 5.76%, while wind power equipment decreased by 0.86% during the same period [10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - On July 4, the "Robot Industry Empowerment Alliance" was established in Jinan, releasing a list of 87 application scenarios across 12 fields, with a total investment of CNY 14.26 billion [18]. - On July 3, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting with photovoltaic manufacturing companies, which boosted industry confidence [18]. - On July 3, the second phase of a major integrated project for distributed photovoltaic, energy storage, and charging piles was put into operation, with an installed capacity of 9,300 kilowatts [18]. - On July 2, the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon showed a slight increase, indicating a warming trend in the market despite limited new orders [18].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese stock market, particularly the A-share and Hong Kong markets, with an emphasis on asset revaluation strategies for 2025 [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: In the first half of 2025, the A-share market exhibited structural differentiation, with sectors like AI, new consumption, and robotics performing well. The Hong Kong market saw a rise of approximately 20%, transitioning from a dividend bull market to an AI bull market [1][4]. - **Optimistic Outlook for H2 2025**: The outlook for the second half of the year is optimistic, with recommendations to invest in both emerging assets and traditional economic sectors, which are expected to face upward revaluation trends [1][5][6]. - **Focus on New Growth Areas**: Emphasis on autonomous and controllable sectors such as military and semiconductor industries, alongside a gradual clearing of traditional sectors like finance, banking, insurance, and brokerage [1][6][8]. - **Policy Expectations**: Despite potential fundamental pressures in Q3, the overall sentiment remains positive for the Chinese market, with expectations of a loosening credit policy if export growth declines significantly [1][7]. - **Valuation Discrepancies**: The report highlights a significant PE gap (20-40 points) between leading Chinese AI companies and their counterparts in the Nasdaq, indicating substantial room for growth in domestic tech stocks [1][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **New Consumption Trends**: The revaluation of new consumption is informed by Japan's macroeconomic environment over the past 30 years, focusing on the consumption habits of Generation Z in China, which are expected to drive future market performance [1][11]. - **Red Code Concept**: This concept combines characteristics of dividend and blue-chip stocks, identifying traditional blue-chip stocks with enhanced dividend potential, particularly in logistics, condiments, film, and engineering machinery sectors [2][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Key recommended sectors include electronics, computing, communications, metals, machinery, military, and pharmaceuticals, covering 20 sub-sectors and 30 to 50 stocks [1][10]. Future Market Outlook - The annual strategy maintains a bullish perspective, with expectations of improved risk appetite in Q4. The three main revaluation directions are growth, new consumption, and traditional economy, with a focus on autonomous sectors and internationalized new consumption stocks [1][13].

Core Viewpoint - XuGong Group aims to deepen international cooperation in smart manufacturing, green low-carbon initiatives, and mutual benefits, aligning Chinese advanced manufacturing capabilities with the development needs of BRICS countries, particularly Brazil [1][4]. Group 1: Technological Innovation and Digital Transformation - XuGong Group has implemented a "smart transformation and digital networking" strategy, establishing a leading smart manufacturing demonstration factory in Brazil, integrating technologies such as automation, industrial robotics, IoT, and big data to enhance production efficiency and product quality [2]. - The digital transformation has significantly reduced labor intensity and improved equipment delivery efficiency, providing South American clients with smarter and more efficient engineering solutions [2]. Group 2: Green Development Initiatives - Green development is a core direction for global industrial restructuring and a key strategy in Brazil's new industrial policy, aligning with China's green manufacturing goals [2]. - XuGong Group released the industry's first "dual carbon" planning outline in 2021 and accelerated its layout in new energy engineering equipment, including the delivery of the world's first intelligent battery-swapping unmanned mining truck cluster in May [2]. - In the second half of 2025, XuGong Group plans to deliver pure electric wide-body mining trucks and pure electric mining graders for trial use in Brazil's main mining areas [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Investments - Since its establishment in 2014, XuGong Brazil has directly facilitated bilateral trade worth billions of dollars and created over 1,800 local jobs [4]. - The company plans to increase investment in cutting-edge technologies such as automation, unmanned systems, and electrification, enhancing its smart factory system to meet diverse and high-standard customer demands [4]. - XuGong Group encourages more Chinese manufacturing enterprises to engage with BRICS partners to build collaborative platforms for research and industry, promoting the co-innovation of smart equipment and green technologies [4].

Group 1 - The focus of the brokerage strategy discussions this week is on the upcoming trade agreement progress and the sustainability of the "anti-involution" sector [1][2] - The Huaxi strategy team indicates that the core pricing in the global market is centered around the trade agreement progress on July 9, with potential tariff extensions being a negotiation tactic [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with two main lines of focus: positive mid-term performance expectations in sectors like wind power, thermal power, and robotics, and the potential for domestic chains to catch up following Nvidia's overseas breakthroughs [1][3] Group 2 - The Dongfang strategy team notes that the market previously viewed the July 9 tariff as a negligible short-term risk, but it may escalate into a core issue next week, leading to a volatile market [1][3] - The Zhongyin strategy team emphasizes that the current liquidity environment supports the market, and as the third quarter progresses, domestic demand expectations may improve if tariff policies do not experience unexpected fluctuations [1][3] - The Xuch team's analysis suggests that "expectation management" is a key tool in the "anti-involution" policy, with limited space for further capacity clearance in traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel due to already high industry concentration [2][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks due to the expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" [5] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is that the liquidity environment remains a primary support factor, with expectations for recovery in domestic demand as price pressures ease and policies are implemented [5] - The current cycle of capacity reduction is crucial, but its short-term impact on profitability may be limited if demand does not show signs of recovery [4][5]

策略研究 周度报告 "反内卷"行情能否成为新主线？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-07-06 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《扰动在前，提升在后 — 2025 年 7 月 A 股市场研判及配置机 会》2025-06-29 2.中期策略《积聚向上突破的力量 — 2025 年 A 股中期投资策略》2025-06- 22 主要观点 ⚫ 短期存在外部风险 ...

Group 1: Human-Robot Interaction - Leading overseas manufacturers are adjusting technical details, impacting short-term supply chain order rhythm, but further product optimization will lay a better foundation for large-scale production, with the upcoming V3 release expected to significantly catalyze the sector [2] - Domestic manufacturers are continuing their plans for mass production of humanoid robots and gradually releasing orders to the supply chain, contributing to incremental performance for companies [2] - The industry is actively exploring hardware and software iterations, which will drive product exploration and uncover more potential downstream opportunities, emphasizing "embodied intelligence" applications rather than being limited to humanoid robots [2] Group 2: Engineering Machinery - Component and forklift sectors show marginal improvement, with ongoing observation of excavator trends [2] - In June, upstream component companies reported full production schedules, benefiting from recovering foreign client demand, with Q2 growth expected to be strong [2] - In May, domestic forklift sales increased by 9.93% year-on-year, and exports rose by 11.46%, indicating a significant improvement in domestic sales growth [2] Group 3: Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is gradually emerging from the industry bottom, with solid-state batteries expected to achieve commercial application by 2027, leading equipment advancements [3] - Since September 2024, domestic leading battery manufacturers have seen an increase in operating rates, with significant improvements in domestic orders expected for 2025 [3] - Recent catalysts for solid-state batteries include developments from Guoxuan High-Tech and other companies, indicating a strong industry momentum [3] Group 4: Export Chain - The U.S. and China are refining the implementation of the Geneva meeting consensus, indicating marginal improvements for the export chain, especially for exports to the U.S. [4] - Following the Geneva economic talks, the U.S. and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, reducing tariffs on Vietnamese exports to the U.S. from 46% to 20% [4] - The 90-day grace period for reciprocal tariffs imposed by the U.S. on most countries is set to expire on July 9, suggesting that the negative impacts from previous tariff increases on export chain companies may improve [4] Group 5: Recommended Companies - Companies such as Xianlead Intelligent, Xianhui Technology, and Haimeixing are recommended for attention, along with composite flow equipment firms like Dongwei Technology and Jiaocheng Ultrasonic [4] - Key recommendations in the machinery sector include Anhui Heli, XCMG, SANY Heavy Industry, and others, indicating a strong outlook for these companies [4]