Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (协鑫科技) has announced a subscription agreement to issue a total of 4.736 billion shares at a subscription price of HKD 1.15 per share, representing an approximate discount of 8.73% compared to the last closing price of HKD 1.26 [1][2] Group 1: Subscription Details - The total proceeds from the subscription are expected to be approximately HKD 5.446 billion, with a net amount of about HKD 5.392 billion after deducting related fees and expenses [2] - The subscription shares represent approximately 16.63% of the existing issued share capital as of the announcement date and about 14.26% of the enlarged issued share capital post-issuance [2] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - 65% of the net proceeds will be allocated for supply-side reform, specifically for structural adjustments in polysilicon capacity, enhancing the company's second growth curve, and optimizing capital structure [2] - The remaining 35% will be used for general working capital and repayment of existing loans [2]

Group 1 - The company, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, has entered into a subscription agreement to issue a total of 4.736 billion shares at a subscription price of HKD 1.15 per share, which represents a discount of approximately 8.73% compared to the last closing price of HKD 1.26 [1][2] - The total proceeds from the subscription are expected to be approximately HKD 5.446 billion, with a net amount of about HKD 5.392 billion after deducting related fees and expenses [2] - The net proceeds will be allocated as follows: 65% for supply-side reform and structural adjustments in polysilicon production, enhancing the company's capacity in silane gas, and optimizing capital structure; 35% for general working capital and repayment of existing loans [2] Group 2 - The subscription shares represent approximately 16.63% of the company's existing issued share capital as of the announcement date, and about 14.26% of the enlarged issued share capital post-issuance [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (协鑫科技) has entered into a subscription agreement to issue approximately 4.736 billion shares at a subscription price of HKD 1.15 per share, which represents about 16.63% of the company's existing issued share capital as of the announcement date [1] - The total amount raised from the subscription is approximately HKD 5.446 billion, with a net amount of approximately HKD 5.392 billion after expenses [2] - The company plans to allocate 65% of the net proceeds for supply-side reform, enhancing polysilicon production capacity, and optimizing its capital structure, while 35% will be used for general working capital and repayment of existing loans [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as economic indicators, supply - demand relationships, and policy expectations. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper showed a positive line oscillation. Spot copper rose to 80,940 yuan, with premiums in Shanghai and Guangdong on the last trading day being 80 and 20 yuan respectively. The refined - scrap price difference widened to 2,000 yuan. SMM copper social inventory increased by 9,900 tons to 154,200 tons over the weekend. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the premium fluctuations of the call option with an exercise price of 82,000 yuan for the 2510 contract [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly corrected today, with the spot discount widening in various regions. The downstream start - up continued to pick up seasonally, and the aluminum ingot inventory is likely to remain low this year. However, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not yet shown an inflection point, increasing by 11,000 tons compared to last Thursday. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, with oversupply and falling prices [2] Zinc - LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 50,500 tons, with a 0 - 3 month premium of $30.17 per ton. London zinc rebounded to the high - level range at the beginning of the year. Shanghai zinc is still dragged down by weak fundamentals and fluctuates narrowly above 22,000 yuan. The import loss of zinc compared to the spot exceeds 3,300 yuan per ton, and the expectation of zinc ingot exports is strengthening [3] Lead and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated at a low level. The short - covering retreat was triggered by the speculation of interest - rate cut expectations. The upstream price support of nickel has rebounded slightly, and the price level of the nickel industry chain has been pushed up. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 41,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 29,200 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 16,000 tons to 919,000 tons [6] Tin - Shanghai tin showed a positive line oscillation, with the spot tin price dropping to 273,300 yuan. Overseas, although the positions are still relatively concentrated, the position - volume risk has decreased. Domestic leading production capacity is under maintenance. Technically, there is resistance at 275,000 yuan for the domestic market and $35,000 for the overseas market. It is not recommended to chase long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 138,500 tons. The smelter inventory decreased by 3,200 tons to 36,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 58,000 tons. The price of lithium carbonate has a low - level support, and a short - term bullish view is taken [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon was boosted by coal - related news, reaching 9,000 yuan per ton during the day and then falling back to close at 8,800 yuan per ton. In September, the supply - side output is expected to increase by 5% month - on - month, while the downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are expected to have a slight decline in output. The short - term is expected to maintain a volatile operation [9] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon closed slightly down at 53,500 yuan per ton. Only a few enterprises have implemented production cuts, and the reduction range is limited. The main contract of polysilicon can be expected to oscillate in the range of 50,000 - 55,000 yuan per ton [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, casting aluminum alloy, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. The market for each metal is influenced by factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and geopolitical events. The investment opportunities and risks vary among different metals, and specific trading strategies are proposed accordingly [3][8][12]. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed up 0.26% at $3643.06 per ounce, and London silver closed up 1.58% at $42.16 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.14% to 97.68, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.027%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.09% to 7.1246 [3]. - **Important News**: US inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released, and there were Trump administration dynamics and high probabilities of Fed rate cuts [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US labor market's vulnerability and inflation data have strengthened the market's expectation of multiple Fed rate cuts this year [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider reducing positions on rallies or taking profits near the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2510 contract closed at 80810 yuan per ton, up 0.19%. LME copper closed at $10064.5 per ton, up 0.07%. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 15.39 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 653 tons to 31.04 million tons [8]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, and Grasberg copper mine had an accident [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US inflation and labor market data, along with supply disruptions and changes in inventory, have affected the copper market. The supply is tight, and the consumption shows a "not - so - prosperous peak season" [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips, pay attention to the support at $10000 per ton; conduct inter - market positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2511 contract fell 11 yuan to 2897 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines [12]. - **Important News**: There were delays in Indian bauxite mining projects, changes in inventory, and cost and profit data [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus in the alumina market is becoming more obvious, with prices falling both at home and abroad. However, beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to continue to be weak; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 to 20580 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Policy changes affected the regenerative aluminum industry, and there were cost and inventory data [18][19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the supply of scrap aluminum, while the downstream demand is increasing. The market supply is tightening, and the price is expected to be stable and strong [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21][22]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2510 contract rose 45 yuan to 21075 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [24]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks, changes in inventory, and new electrolytic aluminum projects in Indonesia [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has strengthened, and the supply - demand shortage pattern supports the aluminum price [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short - term; conduct AL10 - 12 positive arbitrage; wait and see for options [29]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose 1.76% to $2956 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2510 rose 0.09% to 22300 yuan per ton [31]. - **Important News**: There were changes in zinc ore processing fees [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the consumption is flat. Overseas, LME is in a de - stocking phase, which supports the LME zinc price [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price may be strong in the short - term; consider shorting on rallies in the medium - long term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32][33]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 1.18% to $2019 per ton, and SHFE lead 2510 rose 1.03% to 17140 yuan per ton [35]. - **Important News**: The operating rate of recycled lead smelters decreased [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The reduction in domestic recycled lead supply and the pre - holiday stocking demand may push up the lead price, but beware of the impact of lead imports [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose $160 to $15380 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 820 to 122010 yuan per ton [38]. - **Important News**: There were no major impacts on nickel mining operations in Indonesia, and there were new investment talks for nickel smelting projects [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is optimistic about the macro - environment, but the supply increase in the peak season and the increase in LME inventory put pressure on the price [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage and options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The SS2511 contract rose 15 to 12945 yuan per ton [43]. - **Important News**: Stainless steel enterprises are undergoing low - carbon emission transformation, and there are new global green trade rules [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's possible rate cut, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the approaching consumption peak season support the price [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and strong; wait and see for arbitrage [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract closed at 8745 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 100 yuan per ton [47]. - **Important News**: There were changes in coal prices and industrial silicon production and inventory [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will shift to a slight surplus, and the price may decline slightly but with limited amplitude [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term; consider going long after a sufficient decline; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts [51]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided. - **Important News**: The cost and demand in the silicon wafer segment increased, and there were price increases [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The long - term price trend is upward, but in the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term; buy on dips in the long - term; conduct reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts; hold out - of - the - money put options [55]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2511 contract rose 500 to 71160 yuan per ton, and spot prices fell [57]. - **Important News**: There were policies to promote automobile consumption and a new lithium carbonate project in Argentina [57][59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new automobile industry policy may boost the demand for lithium carbonate, but the price lacks strong driving forces [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [61][62]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin closed at 274160 yuan per ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices rose, but the trading volume was low [62][63]. - **Important News**: There were Sino - US trade talks and Peruvian tin export data [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand improvement is slow. The inventory has increased [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term; wait and see for options [64].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals released on September 15, 2025, covering multiple non - ferrous metal varieties including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall macro - environment shows that the market has increased expectations for three interest rate cuts within the year due to factors such as the US CPI in August and weak non - farm payroll data. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper supply is tight, while alumina is in an oversupply situation. [8] Group 4: Copper Market Review - The Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, up 0.35%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced positions by 1,572 lots to 520,900 lots. The spot market showed weakening procurement sentiment, with different regions having different changes in spot premiums. [2] Key Information - As of September 15, the national mainstream copper inventory increased by 0.99 tons to 15.42 tons. The planned merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources may create the world's largest copper mine in the early 2030s. China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. The average export benchmark price of copper concentrate in Indonesia in the second half of September increased by 2.29% compared to the first half. [3][4][5] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts. Fundamentally, copper supply is tight due to production accidents and policies, and consumption shows a marginal weakening trend. [8] Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, consider laying out long positions after a pull - back and pay attention to the support level of $10,000/ton. Hold cross - market positive arbitrage positions and stay on the sidelines for options. [8] Group 5: Alumina Market Review - The alumina 2601 contract rose by 13 yuan to 2,935 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [10] Key Information - India postponed the approval of an alumina project, which may delay the second - phase project of a factory. The weighted average full cost of alumina decreased, and the industry average profit increased. The national alumina production capacity and inventory situation changed. [11][12][14] Logic Analysis - Alumina supply and demand remain in an oversupply situation, with a weak fundamental trend, but beware of the impact of "anti - involution" sentiment on prices. [15] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading is expected to continue the weak operation pattern. Stay on the sidelines for both arbitrage and options trading. [16][17] Group 6: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract rose by 5 yuan to 21,025 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. [19] Key Information - From January to August, real estate development data showed a decline. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and some overseas electrolytic aluminum projects had new developments. [19][21] Logic Analysis - Macroscopically, the market expects interest rate cuts, and overseas and domestic fundamentals support the price. Although there may be short - term inventory fluctuations, the annual supply - demand shortage pattern remains. [22] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and continue to be bullish on pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [23][24] Group 7: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell by 25 to 20,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices in most regions increased. [26] Key Information - The policy of standardizing investment promotion affects the recycled aluminum industry, with some regions having more obvious impacts. The weighted average full cost of the ADC12 industry increased, and the theoretical profit expanded. The exchange will start the standard warehouse receipt generation business for cast aluminum alloy futures. [26][29][30] Logic Analysis - The policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and downstream demand is increasing. The alloy ingot price is expected to be stable and strong. [31] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Follow the upward trend of aluminum prices, and be bullish after pull - backs. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [32][33] Group 8: Zinc Market Review - The Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.13% to 22,310 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1,484 lots to 221,800 lots. The spot market had stable quotes and weak downstream demand. [35] Key Information - Domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and Peru's zinc concentrate production in July 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. [36] Logic Analysis - In September, domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and consumption is weak. Overseas, LME inventory is decreasing, which supports the LME zinc price. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may rise. [39] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Zinc prices may be strong in the short term, and consider laying out short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [40] Group 9: Lead Market Review - The Shanghai lead 2510 rose 1.15% to 17,160 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 3,021 lots to 91,400 lots. The spot market had different trading situations. [42] Key Information - Domestic lead ingot inventory increased, and the price of imported lead ore was at a loss. Some domestic smelters may advance winter storage plans. [43][44] Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelters are reducing production due to losses, and downstream pre - holiday stocking may support prices. However, if the lead ingot import window opens, prices may fall. [45] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The Shanghai lead price is expected to be strong in the short term, but beware of price drops after the inflow of imported lead ingots. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [47] Group 10: Nickel Market Review - The main Shanghai nickel contract NI2510 rose 1,390 to 122,580 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 690 lots. Spot premiums changed slightly. [49] Key Information - The land seizure incident in Indonesia had no major impact on nickel production. Vale Indonesia is in talks for three nickel smelter projects, and Zhongwei Co., Ltd.'s nickel smelting capacity in Indonesia is ramping up. [50] Logic Analysis - The market is concerned about the interest rate cut amplitude. Although it is the peak demand season, supply also increases, and LME inventory is rising, putting pressure on prices. [51] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [53] Group 11: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2511 contract rose 155 to 13,070 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,671 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given. [55] Key Information - Many stainless steel enterprises are carrying out low - carbon emission transformation, and global green trade rules are being reconstructed. [56] Logic Analysis - Macro - factors and the rise in nickel prices support stainless steel prices. With the approaching of the consumption peak season, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. [56] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [57][58] Group 12: Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 273,960 yuan/ton, up 1,110 yuan/ton or 0.41%. The spot price decreased slightly, and the terminal consumption situation was different in different industries. [60] Key Information - China's new energy vehicle production in August 2025 increased significantly year - on - year. Indonesia's refined tin export volume in August decreased by 49% year - on - year. [61][62] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates. Tin ore supply is tight, and demand may be postponed. LME and domestic inventories are increasing. [63] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the increase in inventory restricts the upward space. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [64] Group 13: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 0.86% to 8,800 yuan/ton after an intraday high - low fluctuation. Spot prices in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, while other regions remained stable. [65][66] Key Information - An important article will be published emphasizing the construction of a unified national market. The production and inventory data of industrial silicon and its downstream products are given. [67][69] Logic Analysis - As leading manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand of industrial silicon will change from tight balance to slight surplus. Although the price may pull back, the cost increase and low inventory will limit the decline. [69] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Buy on pull - backs. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options after a pull - back. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11 and 12 contracts. [70] Group 14: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract fell 0.34% to 53,545 yuan/ton. Spot prices had a certain range. [71] Key Information - The same important article about the unified national market construction is mentioned. The long - term price of polysilicon is expected to rise, but there are short - term multi - empty factors. [72] Logic Analysis - The long - term price of polysilicon is likely to rise, but in the short term, there are factors such as the cancellation of 11 - contract warehouse receipts that may cause a deep pull - back. [74] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: Fluctuate in the short term and buy on pull - backs in the medium - to - long term. Participate in reverse arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Hold sold out - of - the - money put options. [75] Group 15: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract rose 1,640 to 72,680 yuan/ton, the index reduced positions by 652 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 338 to 38,963 tons. Spot prices remained stable. [76] Key Information - The Ministry of Commerce promotes automobile consumption, and Zijin Mining's lithium project in Argentina is put into production. The Brazilian federal prosecutor's office requires the review of lithium mining licenses. [77][78] Logic Analysis - The overall atmosphere is optimistic with the Fed's possible interest rate cut. Although demand is strong, long - term supply is also increasing, and prices need to fluctuate and consolidate. [81] Trading Strategies - Single - sided trading: The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage trading. [82][83] Group 16: Price and Related Data - Multiple tables show the daily data of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, futures prices, spreads, industry profits, and inventory data from September 9 to September 15, 2025, as well as the comparison with the previous weekend and the end of the previous month. [85][86][87] Group 17: Charts - There are many charts showing the historical trends of various indicators of non - ferrous metals such as spot premiums, term structures, import and export profits, and inventory, providing visual references for price analysis. [96][100][104]

2012 31 2025-9-15 分析师：方富强 F3043701 Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 F3040017 Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 F03131200 ITG国贸期货 目录 01 有色及新能源价格监测 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 03 碳酸锂 (LC) 01 PART ONE 有色及新能源价格监测 | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | 年涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | | 美元指数 | 1973年3月 =100 | 97 6178 . | 0 09% . | -0 . | 12% | -10 01% . | 工业硅 | 元/吨 | 8745 | 0 06% . | -0 85% . | -20 39% . | ...

| 作者： | 胡彬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | 期货研究院 新能源产业链周度策略 New Energy Industry Chain Weekly Report 能源化工团队|有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 魏朝明 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3077171 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015738 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578971 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年09月12日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 碳酸锂： 【市场逻辑】 现货方面，周五SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价格72398元/吨，环比上 一工作日下跌406元/吨；电池级碳酸锂7.09-7.4万元/吨，均价7.2 45万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨；工业级碳酸锂6.96-7. 08万元/吨，均价7.02万元/吨，环比上一工作日下跌400元/吨。碳 酸锂期货价格持续横盘低位震荡，下游材 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the mine end [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between short - and long - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is under pressure [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to short at high prices [2][15]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market information changes [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,980 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Many events occurred in Indonesia, including the trial production of the CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP, plans to shorten mining quota periods, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and the takeover of a nickel - mine area by the forestry working group [4][5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on futures contracts (such as 2511 and 2601 contracts), spot prices, basis, and raw - material prices are provided [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and Zijin Mining's lithium - salt project was put into production [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, prices, profits, inventories, and raw - material costs of industrial silicon and polysilicon is presented [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The three ministries and commissions issued the "National Industrial Resources Comprehensive Utilization Advanced and Applicable Process Technology Equipment Catalog (2025 Edition)" [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (slightly bearish), and that of polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The discussion on the energy consumption issue of industrial silicon in the Baotou meeting on Friday has no clear conclusion, and it is expected to be difficult to implement in a short time. The short - term price of industrial silicon may run between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - Industrial silicon: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,745 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,600 yuan/ton. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract closed at 53,610 yuan/ton, down 3,125 yuan/ton from last week [10][11]. 3.2 Energy Consumption Implementation Takes Time, and Silicon Wafer Prices Rise Again to Transfer Pressure Industrial Silicon - This week, 7 new furnaces were opened in Xinjiang, and the situation in other regions remained unchanged. Southern production remained stable and may enter the dry season at the end of October with some silicon factories reducing production. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.32 million tons. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, industrial silicon may accumulate about 30,000 tons of inventory from September to October and may reduce inventory by about 100,000 tons during the dry season from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to reduce inventory during the dry season [2][12]. Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, and the weekly production was 48,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. The inventory was 47,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.27%. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will fluctuate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated and declined this week. The quoted price of dense material from first - tier manufacturers was 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers was 52 yuan/kg. The new order price of granular material increased to 50 yuan/kg. The production limit in September has not been fully implemented, and the planned production is still about 128,000 tons. As of September 11, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 219,000 tons, mainly concentrated in two first - tier enterprises. The inventory of downstream silicon wafer factories reached 2 - 2.5 months. Affected by sales quotas, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon may be tighter. Considering the high production pressure of downstream sectors, the price of silicon material may remain flat or rise slightly. The new energy consumption standard is still in the drafting stage and will take time to implement [3][14]. Silicon Wafer - This week, the price of silicon wafers stabilized at a new level. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.30/1.40/1.65 yuan/piece. The production plan in September was 57.5GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.5GW. As of September 11, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 16.55GW, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3GW. The price of silicon wafers may rise further [15]. Battery Cell - The price of battery cells rose this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells rose to 0.31/0.3 yuan/watt, while that of G12R remained at 0.285 yuan/watt. Overseas demand drove up the price of M10 battery cells, and G12 benefited from the peak season of domestic traditional centralized demand. The production plan in September was 60GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.8GW. It is expected that the price of battery cells will remain stable in the short term [16]. Component - The price of components remained stable this week. The production plan in September was 50GW, a month - on - month increase of 1GW. Some component enterprises have plans to reduce production due to cost pressure. It is expected that the price of components will fluctuate in the short term [17][18]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Industrial silicon: The short - term price of industrial silicon may run between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to interval operation opportunities [4][19]. - Polysilicon: In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the rebound of the 11 - contract, and the arbitrage can pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][19]. 3.4 Hot News Sorting - India reduced the goods and services tax (GST) on renewable energy components from 12% to 5%, which is expected to reduce the capital cost of solar and wind energy projects by about 5% [20]. - On September 14, leading enterprises raised the price of silicon wafers [20]. - On September 12, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to improve the price mechanism to promote the nearby consumption of new energy power generation [20]. 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - A series of charts show the price, production, inventory, and profit data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [9].