Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term macro environment for steel is positive, with supply contraction expectations, stable cost support, and the steel futures market may show a volatile and upward - biased pattern. The long - term trend depends on the actual demand during the peak season [3]. - Iron ore prices are bounded, with short - term stable fundamentals and long - term focus on hot - rolled coil inventory pressure. The current oscillation needs macro changes to break [20]. - For coal and coke, although there are import substitution effects, considering policy expectations and support for finished product prices, the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic [29]. - The price of ferroalloys follows coal price fluctuations. In the short - term, there are still expectations of supply contraction, and in the long - term, demand support may weaken [45]. - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, with high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations and price cuts by alkali plants [55]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [80]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Supply**: Coal mine over - production governance and the "276 - working - day" policy support costs. There are expectations of supply contraction due to restrictions during the Tangshan parade [3]. - **Demand**: Steel export orders have improved slightly, but the price inversion still exists. The market depends on the actual demand during the peak season [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased compared to the previous day. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [4][8][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Iron ore prices are in a following state, with limited fundamental contradictions. The anti - spread is strengthening, and the price range is bounded [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The basis and some spot prices changed [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: Daily hot - metal production is stable at around 2.4 million tons, and port inventories are maintained. There are small changes in shipping and other data [24]. Coal and Coke - **Supply**: There are supply - side disturbances such as coal mine over - production inspections in Shanxi, but the import substitution effect is significant [29]. - **Demand**: Due to the support of finished product prices, steel mill profits are resilient, and the medium - to - long - term demand for coal and coke is not pessimistic [29]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the basis, spreads, and costs of coal and coke futures and spot prices changed compared to the previous day [33][34][35]. Ferroalloys - **Market Trend**: The price of ferroalloys follows coal price fluctuations. There are still expectations of supply contraction in the short - term, and long - term demand support may weaken [45]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the basis, spreads, and spot prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese changed compared to the previous day [46][48]. Soda Ash - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is high, demand is weak, inventory is at a record high, and the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand [55]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day, and the spreads also changed [56]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory, weak sales, and pressure on spot prices [80]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the prices of glass futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day, and the spreads and basis changed [81]. - **Sales Data**: The sales rate in different regions shows certain fluctuations [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply of coking coal and coke is limited, making their prices prone to rise and hard to fall; the macro sentiment for glass and soda ash is positive, with soda ash prices rising significantly; steel prices are continuously rebounding, and ferroalloys are oscillating and consolidating [1][3] - Glass prices are expected to oscillate, and soda ash prices are also expected to oscillate; silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market showed a strong and oscillating trend yesterday. In the spot market, downstream procurement sentiment was cautious, with demand mainly for immediate needs [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream transactions were stable, with a wait - and - see attitude [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: As market sentiment subsided, glass pricing returned to its fundamental logic. Currently, glass supply has not been effectively cleared, speculative demand has weakened, supply - demand remains relatively loose, and spot prices have declined. The previous premium in the futures market provided good opportunities for spot - futures arbitrage, and the rapid increase in registered glass warehouse receipts suppressed the price of the 09 contract. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies on glass supply and demand [1] - Soda Ash: The market is again worried that stricter environmental inspections in Qinghai will affect local soda ash production capacity elimination. Since Qinghai has a large proportion of soda ash production capacity, if affected, it will improve the supply - demand imbalance to some extent. Currently, soda ash production is continuously increasing with further growth expected, while consumption may weaken further, and inventory growth pressure is high. Therefore, soda ash prices are easily stimulated by news in the short term, but long - term supply - demand contradictions will still suppress prices [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As steel prices continued to rebound, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated. In the spot market, the final pricing of mainstream steel procurement is still under negotiation. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it is 5820 - 5920 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures market oscillated and consolidated yesterday. In the spot market, the market is waiting for HBIS's pricing. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: As market sentiment stabilized, the futures market returned to the fundamentals of the commodity. Currently, silicon manganese production and demand have slightly increased, and manufacturers' inventory has decreased month - on - month, being at a medium level compared to the same period. The quotation of manganese ore to China has slightly increased, causing the cost of silicon manganese to rise slightly, which supports the spot price. The 09 contract still has a certain discount, which also supports the futures price. However, considering the continuous increase in manganese ore port inventory, the cost support is weak, and the silicon manganese industry has an obvious supply surplus. A certain degree of loss is needed to suppress production release. It is expected that silicon manganese prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support, silicon manganese inventory, and manganese ore shipments in the future [3] - Silicon Iron: Currently, silicon iron production has rapidly increased, demand has slightly increased, and manufacturers' inventory has increased month - on - month, being at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The increase in chemical coke prices has driven up the cost of silicon iron, which supports the spot price. However, considering that the futures market is slightly at a premium, and the silicon iron industry has an obvious supply surplus, a certain degree of loss is needed to suppress production release. It is expected that silicon iron prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to cost support and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector in the future [4] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon Iron: Oscillating [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in soda ash futures prices is driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental improvements, influenced by environmental rumors from Qinghai, coal price movements, and macroeconomic emotions, contrasting sharply with high inventory levels [1][3][5]. Group 1: Environmental Expectations - The "Qinghai environmental event" has sparked bullish sentiment in the market, with concerns about potential reductions in local soda ash supply, although production remains normal [3][6]. - Market speculation and rumors have contributed to a significant rebound in soda ash prices, with the current trading focus primarily on policy uncertainties [3][6]. Group 2: Cost and Sector Linkage - The strength in soda ash prices is also supported by rising upstream raw material costs, particularly coal, which has a significant impact on soda ash production costs [4][6]. - The industrial sector's performance is mixed, with some sectors benefiting from policy expectations while others, like soda ash, face challenges due to high operating rates and low demand [4][6]. Group 3: High Inventory Pressure - The soda ash industry is experiencing sustained high supply pressure, with weekly production at 730,000 tons and an operating rate of 87.13% [6]. - Inventory levels have reached historical highs, with soda ash stockpiles climbing to 1.8762 million tons, indicating a lack of substantial demand recovery [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - The optimistic sentiment in the futures market is challenged by significant delivery pressures, with a total of 11,200 delivery warrants expected, nearing historical peaks [7]. - The current market dynamics suggest a struggle between positive sentiment and weak fundamentals, with expectations of short-term price fluctuations but a lack of sustained upward movement without actual supply reductions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract reaching 1410.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.59% increase [1] Industry Summary - As of August 13, 2023, the soda ash production in China is showing mixed operational statuses: Henan Haohua Junhua's facility is running steadily with stable prices, while Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year facility is operating at about 70% capacity, and Shandong Haitai's 1.5 million tons/year facility has increased its load to around 70% [2] - Last week, the domestic soda ash production reached 744,600 tons, marking a 6.4% increase compared to the previous week [2] Market Sentiment - According to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 11,194 contracts compared to the previous trading day [3] - Insights from Zhengxin Futures indicate that the soda ash industry structure has not significantly improved, with supply remaining high and demand primarily driven by basic needs. The market is facing upward inventory pressure, making it difficult for fundamentals to provide adequate support. The market sentiment continues to influence price fluctuations, leading to a range-bound movement in soda ash prices [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures highlights the need to monitor the actual impact of environmental events in Qinghai, noting that market sentiment is currently more influential than fundamental changes. The industry continues to face inventory accumulation, with prices experiencing a downward adjustment. Despite some support from the photovoltaic sector, the industry is still in a significant loss phase, suggesting a continuation of capacity reduction trends. The market is expected to remain under pressure in the long term due to supply constraints and a weak market reality [4]

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market has experienced significant volatility, with prices initially rising over 200 CNY/ton due to "anti-involution" sentiment, followed by a rapid decline as speculative trading subsided. Current market conditions suggest a potential for further price fluctuations driven by speculative sentiment, despite weak spot prices [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Soda ash futures prices have seen a rollercoaster effect, with a notable increase followed by a return to previous levels within a week [1] - The production costs for soda ash have increased due to rising coal prices, with costs in East China at 1624.5 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY) and in North China at 1244 CNY/ton (up 1 CNY) as of August 7 [1][12] - The expectation of supply contraction in the soda ash market is being fueled by speculative trading, despite the absence of any official capacity exit policies [1][12] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The soda ash market is currently facing an oversupply situation, with a reported excess of 7.9 million tons per week in heavy soda ash production against consumption [8] - Light soda ash also shows signs of oversupply, with inventories increasing to 71.76 million tons [8] - Despite good export performance, both enterprise and social inventories are rising significantly, indicating a persistent oversupply that may limit price increases [8] Group 3: Trading Recommendations - The recommended trading strategy is to operate within a wide price range, with an estimated price range of 1200 to 1500 CNY/ton [2][15] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high, avoiding chasing prices in a volatile market [1][12]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is currently stable with slight fluctuations in prices, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to inventory pressure for soda ash companies [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 12, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1220-1320 CNY/ton, and for heavy soda ash, it is 1290-1370 CNY/ton. In Northeast China, light soda ash is priced at 1330-1410 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash at 1390-1520 CNY/ton [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The overall operation of soda ash plants is stable, with a relatively high industry operating rate and sufficient market supply. However, the downstream demand sentiment is poor, leading to a cautious purchasing atmosphere [2][6]. Futures Market - On August 12, the main contract for soda ash (SA2601) opened at 1345 CNY/ton and closed at 1409 CNY/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.31%. The market was influenced by potential environmental disruptions in Qinghai and rising costs, despite the lack of significant improvement in the fundamentals [5][6]. Future Outlook - The number of companies undergoing maintenance is low, resulting in a loose supply in the soda ash market. With limited order growth and a lack of clear driving factors, short-term soda ash prices are expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation trend [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The "anti-involution" sentiment has returned. The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply-demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,275 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,409 yuan/ton, and the basis is -134 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The "anti-involution" sentiment has returned. The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has subsided [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low-end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,345 | 1,235 | -110 | | Current Value | 1,409 | 1,275 | -134 | | Change Rate | 4.76% | 3.24% | 21.82% | [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -23.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co-production method in East China is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.41%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new production capacity of soda ash. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19% [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in-production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply-demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][19]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine production restriction expectation cannot be falsified in the short term, the coking coal supply is still shrinking, the steel inventory is low, and there is a strong expectation of production restriction before major events, which strongly supports the price. In a stable fundamental state, there may be a resonance between macro - positive policies and the industry in the future. Recently, the black market has been highly volatile and will mainly oscillate within the current range before new drivers emerge [3]. Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and no obvious increase [3]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to regular maintenance, the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction due to profit reasons is small in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are production restriction policies in the second half of the month [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the iron ore port area increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation range was limited [3]. - Outlook: The fundamental negative drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [3]. Carbon Element - Supply: Some coal mines in the main production areas reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production checks, and some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production. Although the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, there were restrictions on some traders' haulage recently, which may affect future customs clearance [4]. - Demand: The coke output was temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the inventory of some coal mines had started to accumulate, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market [4]. - Outlook: Under supply disturbances, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures price is expected to be more likely to rise than to fall in the short term [4]. Alloys - Manganese Silicate: The cost support was continuously strengthened by the continuous increase in coke prices. The wait - and - see sentiment in the manganese ore market increased, and the port ore prices remained firm. The downstream demand was still resilient, but the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The output is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is healthy. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw - sheet inventory increased month - on - month. After the futures price dropped, the spot market sentiment declined, and the upstream production and sales decreased significantly [5]. - Supply: One production line was still waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with no prominent internal contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances [5]. - Outlook: Although the cost support strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals were still weak. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. Steel - Core Logic: The Sino - US tariff suspension is expected to maintain export resilience. The arrival of delivery resources may increase supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of five major steel products is accumulating. The fundamental situation has marginally weakened, but the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures price [10]. - Outlook: Focus on steel mill production - restriction and terminal demand [10]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume slightly decreased. Spot market prices rose. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to last year's level. Steel enterprise profitability reached a three - year high, and the molten iron output decreased slightly. The port inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals, with limited inventory accumulation [10]. - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, the price is expected to oscillate [11]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The supply decreased as the shipping willingness was low. The demand increased as the electric - furnace profit was good, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days were at a low level [12]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate [12]. Coke - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to production - restriction rumors. Spot prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke production was stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the iron - water output remained high. The supply - demand structure was tight, and the price was still supported [13]. - Outlook: The market has started the sixth round of price increases, and attention should be paid to possible parade - related production - restriction policies [13]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to supply disturbances. Spot prices were stable. Supply was affected by production - reduction factors in the main production areas and potential customs - clearance restrictions on Mongolian coal. Demand was firm, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment [15]. - Outlook: Supply recovery is expected to be slow, and the futures price is likely to rise in the short term [15]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The market's expectation of supply reduction increased. Supply capacity was not cleared, and production was at a high level. Demand for heavy soda decreased, and light - soda downstream procurement was weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and there was significant short - term delivery pressure [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [18]. Manganese Silicate - Core Logic: The futures price was under pressure due to increased supply. The spot price was firm. The cost increased, and the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space in the long term [18]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The futures price oscillated as production recovery accelerated. The spot price was supported by cost. Supply was expected to increase, and demand from the steel - making and metal - magnesium industries was resilient. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [19]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term fundamentals have potential concerns [19].

Summary of Soda Ash Industry Research and Conference Call Industry Overview - The soda ash industry in China is experiencing steady growth in apparent consumption, with significant changes in downstream demand structure. The share of flat glass is declining while demand for photovoltaic glass is increasing, and long-tail demand is becoming increasingly important. Attention should be paid to how demand fluctuations in various sectors impact soda ash consumption [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Production Processes**: The main production methods for soda ash include ammonia-soda process, dual-soda process, and natural soda process. The ammonia-soda process is large-scale but highly polluting, while the dual-soda process is environmentally friendly but requires high investment. The natural soda process has a cost advantage but is limited by resource scarcity [1][4] - **Cost Analysis**: As of the end of 2024, the total cost for typical ammonia-soda and dual-soda plants is approximately 1,300 RMB per ton, while the total cost for natural soda plants is around 700 RMB. However, due to transportation issues, the ex-factory price in the Alashan region is significantly discounted by about 200 RMB [5] - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: The soda ash market is expected to be oversupplied in the coming years, with new capacities mainly from the Alashan Phase II project (2.8 million tons) and the China Salt Tongliao natural soda project (5 million tons) expected to be completed by the second half of 2028. Without effective industry clearing, the industry's prosperity may remain at a low level for an extended period [6] - **Impact of Real Estate Sector**: The decline in real estate completions negatively affects soda ash demand, but the growth in emerging fields like photovoltaic glass can partially offset this. In the long term, global photovoltaic installations are expected to significantly boost demand for photovoltaic glass, thereby increasing soda ash usage [9][11] - **Historical Cycles**: The soda ash industry has undergone several cycles influenced by macroeconomic factors, real estate policies, energy prices, and supply-side reforms. The recent commissioning of the Alashan Phase I project has intensified supply pressure, leading to a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and price declines [7] Additional Important Insights - **Policy Impacts**: Energy-saving and carbon reduction policies, along with the renovation of old facilities, may accelerate the clearing of the soda ash industry and address internal competition issues. Relevant policies from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Emergency Management could push older capacities to exit the market [3][12] - **Market Pricing Dynamics**: Despite a leftward shift in the overall cost curve of the soda ash industry, price changes may not be significant as pricing is still anchored to the cash flow costs or total costs of synthetic processes [14] - **Current Market Conditions**: The current price of soda ash in East China has recently rebounded but had previously dropped below 1,200 RMB per ton. Many leading companies are currently reporting losses, indicating a challenging market environment [15] - **Key Players**: Major companies in the soda ash industry include Haohua, Boyuan Chemical, China Salt, Sanyou, Xutian, Hebang, Huachang, and Su Salt. Boyuan Chemical is highlighted as a leader with significant advantages in cost and growth potential [16][17] - **Investment and Dividend Potential**: Boyuan Chemical plans to invest in the Alashan Phase II project and a sodium bicarbonate project, with strong cash flow supporting its dividend potential. The company maintains resilience in revenue and profit despite industry challenges [18][19] - **Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected industry clearing, which may delay the anticipated price recovery, and safety and environmental production risks that could have long-lasting impacts on all chemical companies [20]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The apparent consumption of soda ash in 2024 is projected to be 35.23 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.49% [1][3] - The demand for soda ash may significantly slow down in the future due to the continuous losses in photovoltaic glass, which could lead to a slowdown in production capacity growth [1][3] - The glass demand is expected to remain high due to urban renewal and state subsidies stimulating renovation needs, particularly in the second-hand housing market [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rapid expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity has led to a supply-demand imbalance, with the capacity increasing from 11.73 million tons in 2020 to 44.77 million tons by 2024, a growth of 281.64% [3] - The soda ash industry faces significant pressure from new production capacity, with several projects expected to come online, including 2.8 million tons from Boyuan Chemical and a 5 million ton project from Zhongyan Chemical [4] - The cost of production for different soda ash processes is as follows: 1,246 RMB/ton for the Solvay process, 1,395 RMB/ton for the ammonia-soda process, and 679 RMB/ton for the natural soda process, indicating that only the natural soda process is currently profitable [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - The natural soda process is expected to emerge as a dominant method in the global soda ash market due to its lower production costs and the U.S. holding 99% of the world's natural soda resources [5] - The industry anticipates that the demand for soda ash will face further pressure as the production capacity of photovoltaic glass decreases, while the supply side still has significant new capacity coming online [4][5]