Core Viewpoint - The domestic and international precious metal futures have experienced a significant decline on May 15, 2025, with both gold and silver prices dropping across the board [1][2]. Price Movements - Domestic gold futures (沪金) closed at 739.82 CNY per gram, down 3.20% from the previous day, while domestic silver futures (沪银) closed at 8008.00 CNY per kilogram, down 2.34% [1]. - International gold futures (COMEX) were priced at 3151.80 USD per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.91%, and international silver futures (COMEX) were at 32.04 USD per ounce, down 1.08% [1]. Market Analysis - On May 14, COMEX gold showed a downward trend, closing at 3180.7 USD per ounce, with a decline of 2.07% [4]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is at 91.7%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 8.3% [4].

智通财经5月15日电，北京金融法院审判第二庭庭长丁宇翔5月15日在北京金融法院新闻发布会上表示， 北京金融法院将发布一批司法保护资本市场投资者权益的典型案例，涉及证券、期货、基金等领域的投 资者保护。这批典型案例一是明确资管产品管理人责任的司法认定标准，切实保护资管产品投资者权 利。案例1某投资者与某基金公司合同纠纷一案，审判团队以该案中发现的问题为起点，梳理总结了资 管产品管理人尽职调查义务的司法认定标准，形成资管产品管理人尽职调查义务的"六步审查法"，为此 类案件的办理提供了可资参考的标准和规则，有力引导了资管行业的展业标准。 北京金融法院发布一批司法保护资本市场投资者权益典型案例 ...

贵金属日报：波动加大 明显回调 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月15日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格明显调整，伦敦金价在跌破近期震荡区间下沿3200后加速下行，国内黄金ETF呈现流 出现象，其中华安黄金ETF份额从5月13日的82.2亿份，下降至81.5亿份。相较之下，伦敦银目前仍在震 荡区间内运行。周边美指先抑后扬，10Y美债收益率继续上行，美股涨跌不一。最终黄金2506合约收报 3180.7美元/盎司，-2.07%；美白银2507合约收报于32.39美元/盎司，-2.15%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合 约收报761.72元/克，-0.11%；SHFE白银2506合约收8195元/千克，+0.16%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为91.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 8.3%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为63.3%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34.2%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为2.6%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率31.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.7%，累计降息 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of investor education in the futures market, which is currently less understood compared to stocks and funds, and highlights the need for innovative practices in this area [2][4] - The State Council has issued guidelines aimed at enhancing the quality of the futures market to better serve the real economy, indicating a strategic focus on improving investor understanding and engagement [2] - Guangfa Futures is exploring a unique approach to investor education by combining professional foundations with emotional storytelling, and leveraging technology to address the complexities of the futures market [2][4] Group 2 - Investor education plays a crucial role in helping futures investors understand trading rules, strategies, and risk characteristics, which is essential for making informed decisions and avoiding unnecessary losses [4] - Guangfa Futures has established a dedicated investor education team led by senior management, ensuring effective organization and collaboration across various business departments [4] - The company has implemented a resource integration mechanism to consolidate internal educational resources, enhancing the overall effectiveness of investor education efforts [4]

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/05/14 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1200 | 34.52% | 77.1% | | 纯碱 | 1200-1400 | 19.66% | 10.9% | source： 南华研究 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏 高，担心玻璃 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成 | FG2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 1070-1110 | | | | ...

Group 1: Core Business Focus - The company actively engages in serving the real economy and national strategies, continuously seeking innovation and development to better serve the real economy and facilitate the public [1][2] - The company has served over 10,000 industrial clients by the end of 2024, achieving a hedging amount of over 900 billion yuan and facilitating over 100 billion yuan in transactions through off-exchange derivatives and spot business [2] Group 2: Rural Revitalization Efforts - The company promotes the "insurance + futures" model to provide price protection for agricultural entities, having conducted 409 projects since 2016 with compensation exceeding 300 million yuan and additional funding of over 15 million yuan [3] - The company aims to upgrade from "blood transfusion" assistance to "blood production" assistance, creating a positive cycle between financial resources and rural development [3] Group 3: Digital Transformation and Technology - The company has developed the first "AI + futures risk control" real-time intelligent platform in the industry, enhancing risk management capabilities and improving service efficiency [4] - The platform covers six major risk control scenarios, helping clients transition from manual to technological risk management, thereby safeguarding investor interests [4] Group 4: Corporate Culture and Innovation - The company emphasizes a corporate culture based on integrity, prudence, and innovation, aiming to enhance professional quality and behavior norms among employees [5] - The mascot "Xin Xiaolu" is utilized to promote corporate culture through various channels, effectively enhancing cultural recognition and spreading the company's values [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while the short - term is still in a high - level oscillation. The resistance of London gold is in the 3440 - 3500 area, with strong support at 3200 and the first intraday resistance at 3300. The support of London silver is at 32, with resistances at 33.3, 33.7, and if it breaks through, it can reach 34 and 34.5. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Gold showed signs of stopping its decline. The US CPI being lower than expected in the evening slightly boosted precious metals prices, but the impact was weak and did not affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Technically, gold needs to focus on whether it can recover the 5 - day moving average. The surrounding US dollar index declined, the 10Y US Treasury yield oscillated, and the US stock market showed mixed performance. Finally, the gold 2506 contract closed at $3254.5 per ounce, up 0.82%; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $33.09 per ounce, up 1.43%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 767.68 yuan per gram, down 1.63%; the SHFE silver 2506 contract closed at 8245 yuan per kilogram, up 0.44% [2] 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 91.8%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 8.2%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 61.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 35.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 2.7%. In September, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 27.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 50%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 21.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 1.5%. In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF's daily holdings decreased by 2.58 tons to 936.51 tons; the iShares Silver ETF's daily holdings decreased by 29.7 tons to 13999.75 tons. In terms of inventory, the SHFE silver inventory increased by 7.2 tons to 932.2 tons daily; as of the week ending April 30, the SGX silver inventory decreased by 52.2 tons to 1574.3 tons weekly [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - The US unadjusted core CPI annual rate in April was 2.8%, in line with market expectations and at the lowest level since March 2021. The seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate in April was 0.2%, lower than the market - expected 0.3%. This week's data to focus on include US retail sales on Thursday evening and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index on Friday evening. In terms of events, at 20:40 on Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell will give an opening speech at an event. The Fed will hold its second Thomas Laubach Research Conference this week, and US President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE from May 13 to 16 [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main continuous contract was at 767.68 yuan per gram, down 4.6 yuan or 0.6%. SGX gold TD was at 763.4 yuan per gram, up 5.25 yuan or 0.69%. CME gold main contract was at $3254.5 per ounce, up $12.7 or 0.39%. SHFE silver main continuous contract was at 8219 yuan per kilogram, down 13 yuan or 0.16%. SGX silver TD was at 8214 yuan per kilogram, up 90 yuan or 1.11%. CME silver main contract was at $33.09 per ounce, up $0.295 or 0.9%. SHFE - TD gold was at 4.28 yuan per gram, down 9.85 yuan or 69.71%. SHFE - TD silver was at 5 yuan per kilogram, down 103 yuan or 500%. CME gold - silver ratio was 98.353, down 0.4974 or 0.5% [5][6] 3.5 Inventory and Holdings - SHFE gold inventory was 17238 kilograms, unchanged with a 0% change. CME gold inventory was 1221.451 tons, up 4.77 tons or 0.39%. SHFE gold holdings were 214581 lots, unchanged with a 0% change. SPDR gold holdings were 936.51 tons, down 2.58 tons or 0.27%. SHFE silver inventory was 932.184 tons, up 7.231 tons or 0.78%. CME silver inventory was 15660.0249 tons, down 38.5169 tons or 0.25%. SGX silver inventory was 1574.34 tons, down 52.14 tons or 3.21%. SHFE silver holdings were 188738 lots, unchanged with a 0% change. SLV silver holdings were 13999.749702 tons, down 29.6975 tons or 0.21% [17][18] 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 100.9672, down 0.8197 or 0.81%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.2017, up 0.0045 or 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42410.1 points, up 1160.72 points or 2.81%. WTI crude oil spot was at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.72 or 2.78%. LmeS copper 03 was at $9502 per ton, up $63 or 0.67%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was 4.45%, up 0.08 or 1.83%. The 10Y US real interest rate was 2.17%, up 0.01 or 0.46%. The 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.47%, down 0.02 or 4.08% [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain was significantly affected by the US tariff increase on textile and clothing exports. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The agreement in the joint statement exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [4]. - On the supply side, recent maintenance of PX, TA, and EG has been concentrated, leading to a significant supply contraction. With the expectation of trade relaxation, the willingness to hold goods has strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near - month basis [4]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a high level in the same period due to the resilience of filament and better - than - expected bottle - chip exports. After the Sino - US joint statement, the polyester operating rate is expected to remain high in the short term, and the strong supply - demand structure and the recovery expectation of textile and clothing export orders have pushed up the prices of raw materials [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol (EG) | 3900 - 4500 | 30.73% | 91.3% | | PX | 5800 - 6600 | 44.15% | 99.4% | | PTA | 4100 - 4800 | 39.28% | 93.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5400 - 6100 | 31.25% | 98.6% | [3] 3.2 Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Guidance | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management (Downward Price) | High finished - product inventory, worried about EG price decline | Long | Short EG futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs | EG2509 | Sell | 25% | 4400 - 4450 | | Inventory Management (Downward Price) | High finished - product inventory, worried about EG price decline | Long | Buy put options to prevent price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2509P4200<br>EG2509C4450 | Buy<br>Sell | 50% | 40 - 50<br>90 - 110 | | Procurement Management (Upward Price) | Low procurement inventory, want to lock in procurement costs | Short | Buy EG futures to lock in procurement costs | EG2509 | Buy | 50% | 4250 - 4300 | | Procurement Management (Upward Price) | Low procurement inventory, want to reduce procurement costs | Short | Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in purchase price if price drops | EG2509P4200 | Sell | 75% | 70 - 90 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The polyester industry chain was affected by US tariff increases on textile and clothing exports. After the Sino - US tariff negotiation signals, market sentiment improved. The agreement in the joint statement exceeded expectations, and further negotiations are possible [4]. - On the supply side, due to concentrated maintenance of PX, TA, and EG, supply contracted, and the willingness to hold goods strengthened, tightening spot liquidity and strengthening the near - month basis [4]. - On the demand side, polyester demand is resilient. The current polyester operating rate is at a high level in the same period, and it is expected to remain high in the short term after the joint statement. The strong supply - demand structure and the recovery expectation of export orders have pushed up raw material prices [4] 3.4利多解读 No relevant content provided. 3.5利空解读 - Polyester profit margins are continuously compressed, which may reduce production efficiency and enthusiasm [8] - The price of动力煤 on the cost side is continuously weakening, weakening cost support [8] - The profit margins of all EG production routes have been significantly repaired, and the valuation has risen from a low level [8] 3.6 Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, EG, and polyester products on May 13, 2025, May 12, 2025, and May 6, 2025, as well as daily and weekly changes [6][9] - It also provides spread data such as basis, month - to - month spreads, and processing fees [9] - The report shows the production and sales rates of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The stock market opened high and closed low today, with weak upward momentum. The short - term market is not overly optimistic about the tariff reduction. Reasons include: the stock market had recovered some losses under the support of the national team, and the overall sentiment was that the domestic side had a better chance, so the previous pessimism was limited; although the reciprocal tariffs since April have been significantly reduced, the overall tariff is still 10% higher, which has a negative impact; and there is uncertainty in the future development of geopolitical relations as subsequent negotiations continue. [4] - Market funds flowed back into high - dividend industries such as banks today, partly for risk - avoidance and partly because long - term funds prefer high - dividend industries. After the interest rate cut, the returns of high - dividend industries are more attractive. [4] - The short - term market is expected to return to a volatile state with weak upward momentum. Continued attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and volume fluctuations caused by internal and external factors. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index oscillated today, with different index trends. The CSI 300 index closed up 0.15%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 16.885 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with shrinking volume, while IC and IM fell with shrinking volume, and the overall market volume narrowed. [2] Important Information - On May 13th, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian stated that regarding the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks, the Chinese competent department has released relevant information. Regarding the fentanyl issue, the responsibility lies with the US. The US's unreasonable imposition of fentanyl tariffs on China has seriously impacted Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field and damaged China's interests. The US should stop smearing and shifting blame and conduct dialogues with China on an equal, respectful, and mutually beneficial basis. [3] Strategy Recommendation - Recommend selling out - of - the - money call options. [5] Futures Market Observation | Index |主力日内涨跌幅（%）|成交量（万手）|成交量环比（万手）|持仓量（万手）|持仓量环比（万手）| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.14 | 8.324 | - 2.6847 | 24.8604 | - 1.8822 | | IH | 0.10 | 3.7087 | - 1.5403 | 8.2471 | - 0.701 | | IC | - 0.33 | 9.298 | - 0.3341 | 20.6696 | - 0.4733 | | IM | - 0.43 | 21.1048 | - 0.1345 | 32.2033 | - 0.2778 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | 上证涨跌幅（%） | 0.17 | | 深证涨跌幅（%） | - 0.13 | | 个股涨跌数比 | 0.60 | | 两市成交额（亿元） | 12915.25 | | 成交额环比（亿元） | - 168.85 | [6]

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 短期，一是中美关系走向缓和，PE受宏观情绪带动上涨；二是在集中检修和全密度装置转产的作用下，PE基本面预计边际改善。但中长 期，PE供强需弱格局不变。 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 塑料价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空塑料期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7200- 7250 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若聚乙烯价 | | | | 70-10 | | | | | 格上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | L2509C7200 | 卖出 | 50% | 0 | | ...