主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：中粮期货、持仓5867、增仓923，新湖期货、持仓2469、增仓449，国贸期货、持 仓4306、增仓323；多头减仓前三名分别是：中信期货、持仓10246、减仓-896，金瑞期货、持仓2648、减仓-712，中金财富、持 仓1791、减仓-326； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓8253、增仓435，永安期货、持仓7286、增仓289，宝城期货、持 仓3031、增仓280；空头减仓前三名分别是：国泰君安、持仓11046、减仓-1334，五矿期货、持仓3044、减仓-574，银河期货、持 仓3519、减仓-503。 文章来源:新浪期货 2025年6月10日沪锌主力合约2507持仓数据一览 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 国泰君安 | 49,494 | -7,708 | 中信期货 | 10,246 | -896 | 中 ...

国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 官 方 网 站 服 热线 客 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/6/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | CONEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/6/9 | 3324. 93 | 36. 30 | 3345. 70 | 36. 51 | 774.72 | 8909.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch futures and options contracts for casting aluminum alloys on June 10, 2025, to support China's dual carbon strategy and enhance the industry's risk management tools [1] Group 1: Market Overview - China is the largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys globally, with an estimated production capacity of 13 million tons and a production volume of 6.2 million tons in 2024 [1] - The apparent consumption of casting aluminum alloys in China is projected to be approximately 6.73 million tons [1] Group 2: Product Characteristics and Applications - Casting aluminum alloys are characterized by low density, high strength, good corrosion resistance, and excellent castability, making them widely used in automotive, motorcycle, machinery, communication equipment, electronics, and hardware lighting sectors [1] Group 3: Futures Market Impact - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is expected to provide effective tools for enterprises to manage price risks and stabilize operations [1] - The contracts will facilitate physical delivery, expanding the spot circulation channels for enterprises [1] Group 4: Pricing and Valuation - The initial listing benchmark price for the casting aluminum alloy contracts is set at 18,365 CNY per ton, with trading units of 10 tons and delivery units of 30 tons per standard warehouse receipt [2] - Initial reasonable valuation for the contracts is estimated to be between 19,000 and 20,000 CNY per ton based on current market prices [2] Group 5: Demand Dynamics - The downstream demand for casting aluminum alloys is concentrated, with over 60% used in the automotive sector, 7% in home appliances, and 10% in motorcycles and electric vehicles [3] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected, with peak demand from September to December and January of the following year, while the off-peak season typically occurs from May to August [3] Group 6: Price Relationships - The price relationship between primary aluminum and recycled aluminum shows seasonal trends, with the price difference typically ranging from 1,000 to 4,000 CNY per ton [3] - The correlation between aluminum alloy spot prices and primary aluminum spot prices can be utilized for effective price risk management [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Continue to hold and pay attention to short - end performance [1]. 3. Summary by Content Market Performance - Treasury bond futures rose in early trading, were affected by news in the afternoon, and closed higher. Structurally, long - end performed strongly during the day, with TS and TF main contracts flat and others rising. The central bank had a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities in the open market [1]. News - The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on further ensuring and improving people's livelihood and addressing urgent concerns of the public [2]. Market Analysis - The capital interest rate dropped further. The central bank's net injection in the open - market in the morning led to a decline in the capital interest rate, and the overnight inter - bank anonymous rate fell below 1.4% to 1.35%. The inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) rate declined, indicating improved liquidity. Currently, the bond market sentiment is good, but the relatively weak performance of short - term bonds does not match the market trend and NCD performance. If this structure continues, the upside potential of long - end bonds will be limited [3]. - There was a new round of China - US economic and trade negotiations in the UK this week. In the afternoon, false news of a China - US agreement caused a temporary drop in treasury bond futures prices. In the short - term, the biggest variable in the China - US negotiations may be a certain reduction of the 20% fentanyl tariff, but complete removal is unlikely. If the trade negotiation is favorable this week, it may be a case of "bad news being fully priced in" for the bond market [3]. Data | Contract | 2025 - 06 - 06 | 2025 - 06 - 05 | Today's Change | Last Week's Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.448 | 102.434 | 0.014 | 102.35 | | TF2509 | 106.125 | 106.06 | 0.065 | 105.875 | | T2509 | 108.9 | 108.735 | 0.165 | 108.5 | | TL2509 | 119.72 | 119.36 | 0.36 | 118.75 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0733 | - 0.0721 | - 0.0012 | - 0.0794 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0287 | - 0.0084 | - 0.0203 | - 0.0397 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.2587 | - 0.0138 | 0.2725 | 0.3512 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.5255 | 0.6076 | - 0.0821 | 0.3512 | | DR001 | 1.4124 | 1.412 | 0.0004 | 0 | | DR007 | 1.5323 | 1.5509 | - 0.0186 | - 0.1007 | | DR014 | 1.5833 | 1.5892 | - 0.0059 | - 0.1352 | [3][4] Charts - The report includes charts on net basis and basis of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts, long - end interest rate trends, treasury bond spreads (7Y - 2Y), US treasury bond trends, US - China spreads, exchange - traded fund prices, DR and policy anchors, and inter - bank capital transactions [5][10][12][15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main logic of the external market lies in the speculation on the planting weather of US soybeans, which is gradually recovering under the China-US peace talks. The domestic market is under continuous pressure from the actual supply, suppressing the near - month and spot prices of meal products. However, the long - position speculation on the weather market and the unfalsifiable expectation of supply gap due to the trade war in the far - month contracts lead to a stronger far - month trend [4]. - The supply pressure in the second quarter and the third quarter is relatively large, resulting in a weak performance of the spot basis. The supply in the second and third quarters is still abundant, but there is a gap in fourth - quarter ship purchases. On the rapeseed meal side, the spot supply pressure remains, and it is difficult to reduce inventory. The far - month supply has the expectation of Sino - Canadian relations improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - Monthly price range forecasts: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.1% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 11.5%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1765 and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.3218 [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance | M2509 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2509 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3060 | 12 | 0.39% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2728 | 7 | 0.26% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3010 | 52 | 1.76% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2347 | 34 | 1.47% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2360 | 9 | 0.38% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2608 | 41 | 1.6% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1058 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.1862 | 0 | 0% | [5][8] 3.4 Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 327 | 0 | | M05 - 09 | - 289 | - 26 | | M09 - 01 | - 38 | 7 | | RM01 - 05 | - 4 | 12 | | RM05 - 09 | - 257 | - 19 | | RM09 - 01 | 261 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2840 | 40 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 170 | - 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2492 | - 2 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 116 | - 43 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 348 | 42 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 402 | 0 | [9] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/Ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4498.7624 | 0 | - 0.0375 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3780.97 | 55.27 | 122.8 | | Cost Difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) | - 731.5061 | - 5.6889 | - 7.639 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 704.3824 | 0 | 61.638 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 248.0694 | 3.278 | - 0.0526 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 39 | 117 | 94 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 23 | 120 | 91 | [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The year-on-year growth rate of asphalt production is 22.5%, and the year-on-year growth rate of demand is 27.5%. The inventory maintains a slight reduction, with overall pressure being low and the inventory structure being good. Both factory and social inventories have decreased. The basis has strengthened month-on-month, the spot price has strengthened while the futures price has remained flat, and the real - world situation provides fair support. However, the futures market shows concerns about rainy - season demand. The cracking spread on the futures has weakened month - on - month, with crude oil performing strongly and the profit of downstream products being passively weakened. The overall valuation is still at a high level. In the short term (from mid - late June to early August), it remains to be seen whether the decline in demand growth caused by the rainy season can match the increase in production growth under high profits, and the demand side is under pressure in the short term. In the long - term, there is still an expected increase in demand in the last year of the 14th Five - Year Plan [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Asphalt Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.15%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 17.58% [1]. 3.2 Asphalt Risk Management Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | Long | To prevent inventory losses, short asphalt futures according to the enterprise's inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs | bu2509 | Sell | 25% | 3500 - 3600 | | Procurement Management | Short | To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, buy asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance | bu2509 | Buy | 50% | 3300 - 3400 | [1] 3.3 Price and Basis Data of Asphalt on June 9, 2025 | Region | Spot Price (yuan/ton) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | 09 Contract Basis (yuan/ton) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | Spot to Brent Cracking (yuan/barrel) | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong | 3695 | 0 | 70 | 207 | - 10 | - 4 | 161.34 | 0.3399 | - 15.9129 | | Yangtze River Delta | 3650 | 0 | 70 | 162 | - 10 | - 4 | - | - | - | | North China | 3745 | 85 | 100 | 257 | 75 | 26 | - | - | - | | South China | 3410 | 0 | 30 | - 78 | - 10 | - 44 | - | - | - | [3] 3.4利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: The asphalt's own inventory structure is good, and there is a seasonal peak in demand [5]. - **利空 Factors**: The cracking spread remains at a high level; after the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered; the plum - rain season in the South has dragged down demand, and the upward driving force of the basis is insufficient [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, caustic soda prices dropped significantly. The trading logic shifted, and the expectation of a worsened market situation after July strengthened. Additionally, electricity costs had an impact. However, in the short term, the pressure on the spot market is not obvious. There are still many maintenance plans in June, and the spot prices do not have a basis for continuous decline [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.84%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 63.9% [3]. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short caustic soda futures (SH2509, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2600 - 2650) to lock in profits and sell call options (SH509C2600, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 30 - 40) to reduce costs. For those worried about price increases in procurement, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2509, buy, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 2300 - 2350) and sell put options (SH509P2200, sell, 50% hedging ratio, entry range 50 - 60) [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy caustic soda futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [3]. Core Contradictions - In the short term, the fundamentals are not weak, and there is no obvious pressure on the spot market. In the long - term, there is production capacity expansion pressure, the market pattern will worsen, and the expectation is weak [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido Factors**: In the short term, the fundamentals have no obvious pressure. There are still many maintenance plans in June. The profit of the alumina industry on the demand side continues to improve, and non - aluminum exports are improving [5]. - **Risks**: In the long - term, there is an oversupply pressure. There is an expected centralized production capacity expansion on the supply side, and the demand growth is insufficient to support a market reversal [6]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2327, up 12 (0.52%) from June 6; the 09 contract was 2335, up 3 (0.13%); the 01 contract was 2268, up 9 (0.4%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 8, up 9; the 9 - 1 spread was 67, down 6; the 1 - 5 spread was - 59, down 3. The 05 contract basis (Shandong Jinling) was 454.25, down 12; the 09 contract basis was 446.25, down 3; the 01 contract basis was 513.25, down 9 [7]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 9, 2025, among 32 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2656, down 125 (- 4.5%) from June 6. Among 50 - alkali products, Shandong Jinling's price was 2640, down 100 (- 3.7%). Most other brands and regions had no price changes. The market price of flake caustic soda in various regions also remained unchanged [8]. - **Price Spreads**: On June 9, 2025, the spread between Shandong 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali was - 16, up 25 from June 6. Some other spreads remained unchanged, while the 50 - alkali spread between Jiangsu and Shandong was 220, up 20; the 50 - alkali spread between Guangdong and Shandong was 530, up 10 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Sino - US trade relationship shows signs of further easing, which is short - term positive for the market. However, domestic deflation pressure still exists, and imports and exports are weak under tariff impacts. The economic fundamentals are under pressure, limiting the upside space of the broader market. The market is in a policy vacuum period with limited incremental funds, making it difficult for large - cap blue - chip stocks to perform strongly. Small and medium - cap technology stocks with low valuations are expected to rise in the short term. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short single - side trades and try the arbitrage strategy of going long IC/IM and short IF/IH [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2506) is at 3867.8, up 14.0; IF next main contract (2509) is at 3802.4, up 21.4. IH main contract (2506) is at 2676.6, up 3.8; IH next main contract (2509) is at 2641.4, up 6.0. IC main contract (2506) is at 5766.4, up 45.8; IC next main contract (2509) is at 5584.6, up 54.2. IM main contract (2506) is at 6167.8, up 73.6; IM next main contract (2509) is at 5912.6, up 77.2 [2] - IF - IH current - month contract spread is 1191.2, up 9.4; IC - IF current - month contract spread is 1898.6, up 28.6. IM - IC current - month contract spread is 401.4, up 26.6; IC - IH current - month contract spread is 3089.8, up 38.0. IM - IF current - month contract spread is 2300.0, up 55.2; IM - IH current - month contract spread is 3491.2, up 64.6 [2] - IF quarterly - current month is - 65.4, up 6.6; IF next - quarter - current month is - 97.8, up 11.6. IH quarterly - current month is - 35.2, up 2.0; IH next - quarter - current month is - 34, up 4.2. IC quarterly - current month is - 181.8, up 8.4; IC next - quarter - current month is - 306, up 11.6. IM quarterly - current month is - 255.2, up 4.2; IM next - quarter - current month is - 432.6, up 6.6 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 28,228.00, up 443.0; IH top 20 net position is - 12,105.00, down 123.0. IC top 20 net position is - 7,964.00, down 1837.0; IM top 20 net position is - 29,143.00, up 174.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is at 3885.25, up 11.3; IF main contract basis is - 17.4, up 1.1. SSE 50 is at 2686.83, down 2.0; IH main contract basis is - 10.2, up 5.0. CSI 500 is at 5805.65, up 43.6; IC main contract basis is - 39.3, down 2.6. CSI 1000 is at 6218.96, up 66.1; IM main contract basis is - 51.2, up 1.5 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 13,126.55, up 1354.42; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 18,085.96, down 30.84. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 1249.86, down 171.83; reverse repurchase (maturity, operation volume, billion yuan) is 0.0, up 1738.0 [2] - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) are + 3.93, down 265.05. MLF data is not provided. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) is 76.13, up 28.09; Shibor (daily, %) is 1.378, down 0.033 [2] - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2506) is 23.00, up 1.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) is 12.06, down 0.43. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2506) is 52.40, down 10.20; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) is 11.92, down 0.05 [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) is 9.24, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) (6.6) is 54.89, down 2.38; position PCR (%) (6.6) is 67.17, down 0.13 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 7.30, up 2.50; technical aspect score is 7.60, up 2.80; capital aspect score is 7.00, up 2.20 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year (same as the previous value) and 0.2% month - on - month (previous value was a 0.1% increase). PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year (previous value was a 2.7% decrease) and 0.4% month - on - month (same as the previous value) [2] - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a 2.5% year - on - year increase. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, a 7.2% year - on - year increase; imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. In May, the total goods trade import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 2.28 trillion yuan, a 6.3% year - on - year increase; imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease [2] - A - share major indices generally closed higher. The three major indices opened and rose in the morning and maintained high levels in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index once reached 3400 points. Small and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.65%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.07%. Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased. Most industry sectors rose, with the pharmaceutical and biological sector strengthening significantly, and only the food and beverage sector falling against the market [2] 3.7 Key Data to Watch - China's May financial data is to be determined on 6/11 at 20:30. US May CPI and core CPI will be released on 6/11 at 20:30. US May PPI, core PPI and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be released on 6/12 at 20:30 [3]

| | | | | 2025年6月9日中证1000指数期货全合约持仓数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 壇减 | | J | 中信期货 | 61,691 | 16.377 | 国泰君安 | 42.551 | 508 | 中信期货 57,200 | | 1,806 | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 52,959 | 9,493 | 中信期货 | 40,190 | 1,029 | 国泰君安 | 42,314 | 1,383 | | 3 | 海通期货 | 20,903 | 2.836 | 海通期货 | 15.255 | 1.958 | 海通期货 | 19,899 | 1.789 | | 4 | 东证期货 | 15,350 | 2,565 | 东证期货 | 12,699 | 271 | を泰期货 | 15.151 | -337 | | 5 | 中泰期货 | 11.841 | 3,239 | ...

文章来源:新浪期货 | | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 增减 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ਹ | 中信期货 | 72,057 | 24,618 | 中信期货 | 11,142 | 10 | 中信期货 | 15,115 | 2,187 | | 2 | 国泰君安 | 57,202 | 11,472 | 国泰君安 | 7,564 | -2,790 | 国泰君安 | 12,380 | 3,948 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 46,690 | 17,576 | 东证期货 | 5,586 | 544 | 东证期货 | 7,818 | 2,904 | | 4 | 花拳期货 | 35,494 | 11,894 | 光大期货 | 5,174 | 952 | 永安期货 | 6,997 | 1,786 | | 5 | 中泰期货 | 22,139 | 1,365 | 一德期货 | 5,130 | 1,380 | 华泰期货 | 4,563 | 2,421 ...