Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is experiencing a notable upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65% to close at 3914.01 points, indicating a potential shift towards a bull market, although skepticism remains among investors regarding the sustainability of this rally [1] Group 1: Formation of Consensus - The essence of bull market consensus is the shift in market sentiment from a minority of optimism to a majority belief, often triggered by positive economic fundamentals, national policies, or industry trends [2] - Initially, positive signals are often weak and only perceptible to informed investors, while ordinary investors may remain skeptical due to recent bearish market memories [2] Group 2: Challenges in Consensus Expansion - The first challenge is overcoming cognitive inertia, where investors conditioned by previous downturns may hesitate to trust new positive signals [3] - The second challenge involves the need for tangible profit generation to validate the bullish narrative, requiring consistent performance and data to attract broader participation [3] - The third challenge is breaking through key psychological and technical levels in the market, where significant price points serve as both technical barriers and psychological burdens [3] Group 3: Current Market Analysis - The current market is in a critical phase of consensus formation, characterized by accumulating positive signals such as the Shanghai Composite Index's recovery and increased trading volume, indicating new capital inflow [4] - However, there remains significant divergence in market sentiment, with fluctuations around key levels like 4000 points, reflecting ongoing debates about market leadership [4] Group 4: Implications for Investors - Investors are advised to maintain strategic focus and avoid being swayed by short-term market fluctuations, as the formation of consensus requires time and is often accompanied by volatility [5] - Emphasis should be placed on understanding the core logic driving the current market trends, rather than fixating on daily price movements, as this will provide opportunities for re-entry or portfolio optimization [5]

Group 1: Market Activity - 26 stocks had sealed orders exceeding 100 million yuan today, with Tongyu Communication leading at 1.051 billion yuan [1] - The top four stocks by sealed order volume were Jinfu Technology, Leike Defense, Tongyu Communication, and Shunhao Co., with volumes of 479,700; 408,900; 401,900; and 401,100 shares respectively [1] - Jinfu Technology achieved a six-day consecutive limit-up, while *ST Yatai and Hai Xin Food achieved five and four consecutive limit-ups respectively [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Tongyu Communication is actively expanding its satellite communication business, forming a comprehensive product layout covering "star-ground-end" [2] - As of June 2025, Tongyu Communication holds over 700 authorized patents in the RF communication field, including various types such as international, invention, and utility model patents [2] - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace by the National Space Administration is expected to promote high-quality development in China's commercial aerospace industry [2] Group 3: Stock Performance - Tongyu Communication's stock closed at 26.16 yuan with a turnover rate of 0.93% and a sealed order of 40,190 shares, amounting to 1.051 billion yuan [3] - ZTE Corporation's stock closed at 46.30 yuan with a turnover rate of 8.13% and a sealed order of 20,300 shares, amounting to 940 million yuan [3] - China Film's stock closed at 19.02 yuan with a turnover rate of 1.03% and a sealed order of 22,370 shares, amounting to 425 million yuan [3] Group 4: Industry Trends - The AI and commercial aerospace sectors are driving a surge in stock limit-ups, with companies like ZTE Corporation and Tongyu Communication benefiting from advancements in AI technology and satellite communication [5][7] - The AI wearable device market is also seeing growth, with companies like Broadcom Integrated and Chaoyang Technology focusing on low-power, high-performance AI chips for smart devices [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the uncertainty in the macro - environment is expected to decline. China's economic growth may be driven by rebalancing, with a slight slowdown to 4.7%. The US economy may be driven by fiscal - stimulated consumption and AI investment, and there may be three 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts by the end of next year [3][10]. - In the Chinese market, valuation growth will shift from being liquidity - driven to profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes such as overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [3][10]. - In the consumer industry, the competitive environment is expected to improve. The investment strategy is to embrace new trends and new consumption. Traditional consumer industries offer opportunities in individual stock fundamental reversals, while new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds after improved performance certainty [3][10]. - The pharmaceutical industry is optimistic. The innovative drug and CXO sectors are recommended due to factors like China's innovative drug R & D capabilities, policy support, and expected improvement in overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing [4][10]. - The AI industry in the technology sector will continue to grow strongly, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications [4][10]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2026 China Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Rebalancing in the First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan - **Core Situation in 2025**: Thanks to pre - emptive policy efforts and better - than - expected external demand, the annual economic growth target of about 5% can be achieved. However, economic development still faces challenges such as imbalance between supply and demand, the unstable real estate industry, and low inflation [11][16]. - **2026 Outlook**: - **External and Internal Uncertainties**: External trade relations between China and the US may reach a new dynamic balance, and internal risks such as local government debt and real estate have decreased [17]. - **Challenges**: Economic imbalance persists, the real estate industry remains unstable, and low inflation affects investment and consumption confidence [18][19]. - **Policy**: Fiscal policy will maintain a 4.0% budget deficit rate, issue 1.6 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and may increase local government special bonds. It focuses on promoting consumption and stabilizing investment. Monetary policy will remain loose, with possible interest rate cuts of 10 - 20 basis points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of 50 - 100 basis points. Real estate policies will be moderately advanced [21][22]. - **Economic Growth**: Real economic growth is expected to slow to 4.7%. Consumption and investment will contribute 4.3 percentage points, higher than in 2025. The economic growth rate may be low in the first half and high in the second half. Inflation is expected to improve, with the CPI rising to 0.6% and the nominal GDP growth rate rising to 4.5%. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate will remain stable [23][24]. 2026 US Macroeconomic Outlook: The Road to Economic Recovery Led by Policy Stimulus No information provided. 2026 China Market Strategy Outlook: Demand - Driven Growth, Embracing New Core Assets - **Investment Strategy**: China's market liquidity will remain abundant, but valuation growth will be profit - driven. Hong Kong stocks are cost - effective. Investment should focus on high - growth stocks and core asset themes like overseas expansion, AI, and new consumption [10]. Consumer Industry 2026 Outlook: Find Opportunities in the Quiet and the Ordinary - **Industry Environment**: In a weak demand recovery environment, the competitive environment is expected to improve through upstream capacity reduction, downstream inventory clearance, and anti - involution [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The key is to embrace new trends and new consumption. High - cost - performance domestic substitution, emotional consumption, health - related consumption, new retail formats, and domestic brands going overseas are important investment directions. Traditional consumer industries focus on individual stock fundamental reversals, and new consumer companies focus on valuation rebounds [10]. - **Preferred Stocks**: Pop Mart (9992.HK), Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US), and Topsports (6110.HK) are preferred in 2026 [10]. Pharmaceutical Industry 2026 Outlook: Reach New Heights - **Optimistic Outlook**: The pharmaceutical sector is optimistic. The innovative drug sector is recommended due to China's leading R & D capabilities, policy support, and more biotech companies entering the profit stage. The CXO sector is also promising as overseas biopharmaceutical investment and financing is expected to improve [4][10]. Technology Industry 2026 Outlook: AI Algorithm Iteration Expands the Computing Power Base, and the Prosperous Ecosystem Reshapes the Growth Boundary - **AI Growth**: The AI industry will continue to grow strongly. Its underlying technology is in a flywheel - iteration stage, driving the growth of multiple industries and experiencing explosive demand growth in downstream applications such as C - end, B - end, and G - end. In the long run, it may bring growth to emerging industries like embodied intelligence [4][10].

Group 1 - The core event was the "AI + Innovation Cloud Terminal Industry Collaborative Innovation Conference," aimed at exploring innovative applications of AI technology for specific groups and enhancing industry collaboration [1] - The "AI + Innovation Cloud Terminal Industry Collaborative Body" was established to promote deep integration of technological and industrial innovation, enhancing the core competitiveness of the cloud intelligence terminal industry [1][2] - The conference gathered nearly a hundred representatives from various sectors, including government, academia, and enterprises, to discuss the role of AI in supporting vulnerable groups [1][2] Group 2 - The General Manager of Unicom Online emphasized the company's commitment to social responsibility and the development of innovative services for elderly, children, and disabled individuals [2] - Unicom Online plans to leverage its strengths in network, data, computing power, and user engagement to create user-friendly and intelligent products for high-frequency application scenarios [2] - The conference featured a presentation on the "U Love" initiative, which focuses on AI applications for the elderly, children, and disabled individuals, highlighting the core advantages of smart voice products designed for these groups [3] Group 3 - The collaborative body has expanded from an initial 14 members to 31, indicating significant growth and a commitment to building an industrial ecosystem [4] - The conference showcased innovative products like "U Love Companion" and "Smart Home," which provide comprehensive services tailored for special groups, including emergency assistance and health reminders [5] - Unicom Online aims to continue its role as a benchmark enterprise in promoting technological innovation and ecosystem development, contributing to the modernization of society [5]

Focus Review - The hard technology sector, particularly semiconductors and chips, remains mainstream with significant financing activities. For instance, Yanwei Semiconductor completed hundreds of millions in Series A financing, backed by notable investors like Yongxin Ark and Jinyuan Capital [4][15]. - In the health sector, medical devices are gaining attention, exemplified by Jingwei Vision's recent financing exceeding 100 million, supported by multiple investment funds [5][25]. - The internet sector is seeing advancements in AI, with Deep Principle securing over 100 million in Series A financing, led by Alibaba's fund and Ant Group [5][34]. Hard Technology - Yanwei Semiconductor completed hundreds of millions in Series A financing with investments from Yongxin Ark and Jinyuan Capital [4][15]. - Liding Microelectronics raised nearly 100 million in Series A financing, led by CMB International Capital [5][20]. - Hypershell, a consumer-grade exoskeleton company, announced a successful completion of 70 million USD in Pre-B and B rounds, achieving a post-financing valuation of nearly 400 million USD [7]. Health Sector - Jingwei Vision completed a new round of financing exceeding 100 million, with investments from various funds [5][25]. - Jiangsu Zhenyi Medical Technology announced the completion of several hundred million in Series C financing, backed by multiple investment institutions [5][30]. - Weike Biotechnology secured nearly 100 million in Series A financing, led by Shenzhen Capital Group [5][28]. Internet/Enterprise Services - Deep Principle, a pioneer in AI for Science, completed over 100 million in Series A financing, with participation from several major investors [5][34]. - Vision Future, a visual large model company, announced nearly 100 million in angel round financing, led by a listed company [5][35]. - Kulan Dream completed a million-level angel round financing, with investments from notable figures in the gaming industry [5][37].

Group 1 - The WISE 2025 conference is described as an immersive experience rather than a traditional industry summit, focusing on trends in technology and business [1] - The theme "The Scenery Here is Unique" reflects a shift from discussing attitudes and perseverance to showcasing tangible achievements in various sectors [4][5] - The conference highlights the resilience of certain industries, particularly AI, applications, robotics, and consumer electronics, which are showing positive trends despite broader challenges [7] Group 2 - The CEO of 36Kr, Feng Dagang, emphasizes the importance of sharing real results and successes from entrepreneurs, indicating a more optimistic outlook for the year [3][5] - The conference features a unique agenda, including a seven-act short play format and interactive sessions with young entrepreneurs and investors [8] - 36Kr celebrates its 15th anniversary, reflecting on its journey and commitment to supporting innovation and technology in China [9][10]

Core Insights - The 25th China Private Equity Annual Conference will be held in Shenzhen from December 2-5, 2025, organized by Qingke Holdings and Investment界 [2] - The event features various forums and summits, including the Investment Trend Forum, AI Summit, and Innovation Drug and Life Science Summit, aimed at enhancing the investment ecosystem [2][10] Agenda Highlights - The Investment Trend Forum will include a 90-minute dialogue focusing on future challenges and opportunities, alongside the release of the "2025 China Private Equity Development Report" [4][6] - Keynote speeches will be delivered by prominent figures such as Ni Zhengdong, founder of Qingke Group, and Jin Haitao, chairman of Qianhai Ark Asset Management [6][7] - Roundtable discussions will cover topics like cyclical strategies, international perspectives, and exit strategies, featuring industry leaders from various investment firms [8][10] AI Summit Focus - The AI Summit will address breakthroughs in the industry, exploring the integration of AI with hard technology and investment logic behind technological advancements [10][12] - Discussions will include the opportunities presented by embodied intelligence and AI applications in real-world scenarios [10][12] Innovation Drug and Life Science Summit - The summit will focus on key advancements in biotechnology, including AI in drug development, cell and gene therapy, and innovations in medical devices [20][21] - Notable speakers include He Fuchu, an academician from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, discussing international scientific initiatives [20][21] Networking Opportunities - The event will feature diverse networking activities, allowing participants to engage with industry leaders and explore innovative technologies [22][24] - Over 20 cutting-edge technology companies will showcase their products, enhancing interaction between investors and startups [24][25]

Accessible version Global Equity Derivatives & Strategy Year Ahead 2026: The Bubble era AI already big bubble or nothing to see here? Both unlikely Some say clear bubble, others say nonsense. As we noted in Jun 2024 (see Vol suggests AI isn't a bubble…yet), a bubble may be hard to avoid as big tech leaps since 19th century led to big bubbles—and AI is government backed. Biggest IPO gains since 90s, record dip-buying, fear & vol show bubble's progression. Promise of a magical future just out of reach may ush ...

Macro Economic Outlook - The domestic economy is expected to grow steadily at 4.9% in 2026, with infrastructure investment accelerating and manufacturing investment maintaining at 6% [1][6] - Consumer spending is anticipated to be supported by subsidy policies, while export growth may be driven by demand from the US due to its easing monetary policies [6][18] - CPI is projected to have a slight positive growth of 0.5%, while PPI's decline is expected to narrow to -0.9% [1][6] Global Environment - Short-term, US-China relations are entering a relatively stable phase, but long-term trends indicate a gradual decoupling in key sectors [1][18] - Global liquidity is expected to ease, with the Federal Reserve potentially initiating four rate cuts from late 2025 to 2026 [1][18] Asset Allocation Outlook for 2026 Bonds - The bond market is expected to focus on defensive strategies, with 10-year rates projected to fluctuate between 1.70% and 2.0%, and 30-year rates between 1.90% and 2.30% [2][21] - Short-duration high-quality credit bonds and medium-duration rate bonds are recommended for defensive positioning [2][21] Currency - The RMB is expected to appreciate gradually, potentially reaching around 6.80 by the end of 2026, with annualized volatility remaining low at 3.0%-4.0% [3][23] Commodities - The "green inflation" narrative is expected to benefit metals like copper and aluminum due to demand from AI and new energy sectors, with a long-term price increase anticipated [3][26][30] - The "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy is expected to influence commodity markets significantly, particularly in sectors facing overcapacity [3][30] Gold - Gold prices are projected to maintain a range of $4000-$4200 per ounce until the end of 2025, with an upward trend expected post-2026 due to easing liquidity [3][32] A-shares - The A-share market is entering the next phase of an "innovation bull," driven by recovering inflation and improving corporate earnings, with a focus on technology and core manufacturing sectors [3][39][41] - The market is expected to see continued inflows from foreign, institutional, and individual investors, enhancing liquidity and supporting valuations [3][47][48] US Stocks - The US stock market is anticipated to reach new highs, benefiting from a favorable macro environment and AI industry narratives, although high valuations may increase volatility [4][18]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull trend supported by policy shifts and improved liquidity, despite potential short-term volatility [1] - The market's risk appetite is being positively influenced by factors such as breakthroughs in the technology sector and changes in the US-China geopolitical landscape [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is anticipated to provide external support for the A-share market's slow bull trend [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is showing signs of initial stabilization after adjustments caused by multiple internal and external factors, with a long-term upward trend remaining intact [2] - Improvements in dollar liquidity are expected, particularly with the Federal Reserve's dovish signals and the anticipated pause in quantitative tightening starting December 1, 2025 [2] - Institutional investors are expected to begin repositioning for 2026, with a potential increase in buying activity as market pressures ease [2] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced significant volatility and a slight decline in November, influenced by external risk appetite and sectoral differentiation [3] - The banking sector continues to lead, but there are indications that this trend may be nearing its end, while undervalued consumer sectors are showing stronger performance [3] - The market is likely to remain in a high-level oscillation without significant events to drive risk appetite upward, suggesting a focus on patience and strategic positioning for future opportunities [3]