12月30日早盘，创业板人工智能开盘冲高，AI应用概念股涨幅居前，汉得信息、蓝色光标领涨超5%，易点天下、昆仑万维、芒果超媒等多股涨超2%。热门 ETF方面，同类流动性最佳的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内上扬逾1%冲击前高， 把握以光模块为核心的算力方向以及AI应用机会，建议重点关注全市场首只创业板人工智能ETF（159363）及场外联接（A类023407、C类023408），标的 指数重点布局光模块龙头"易中天"，光模块含量最新超56%。从赛道分布看，逾七成仓位布局算力，超两成仓位布局AI应用，能够高效捕捉AI主题行情。 （截至2025.11.30） 同类对比看，截至12月29日，创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）最新规模超38亿元，近1个月日均成交额超6亿元，在跟踪创业板人工智能指数的7只ETF 中排行第一！ 数据来源：沪深交易所等。注："全市场首只"是指首只跟踪创业板人工智能指数的ETF。 风险提示：创业板人工智能ETF华宝被动跟踪创业板人工智能指数，该指数基日为2018.12.28，发布日期为2024.7.11。创业板人工智能指数2020-2024年年度 涨跌幅分别为：20.1%、17 ...

本报记者 昌校宇 中欧基金权益专户投委会主席、基金经理王培预计，2026年或迎来估值演绎的下半场，企业盈利有望成 为股价的核心驱动因素。王培分析称："当前市场正处于基本面拐点，上市公司营收端的修复动能持续 增强，叠加PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）回正预期增强，企业在2026年实现盈利增长值得期待。" 方正富邦基金首席投资官汤戈认为，2026年A股上市公司盈利增速和ROE（净资产收益率）水平有望继 续修复，业绩的增长将消化部分估值压力，使市场上涨的基础更为扎实。 科技投资成共识 科技仍然是各家公募机构关注度最高的投资主线，特别是在"AI投资逻辑将从基础设施建设向实际应用 场景深度扩散"上形成了共识。 近日，国泰基金、中欧基金、长城基金、方正富邦基金等公募机构相继召开2026年度投资策略会，分析 市场走势。 尽管各家公募机构视角各异、表述不同，却也存在共识：2026年A股市场有望从估值修复主导，逐步转 向盈利与估值双重驱动的新阶段；科技仍是贯穿中长期的核心主线，同时消费复苏、企业"出海"等多条 脉络也将交织出丰富的结构性机遇，共同描绘出一幅积极向好的投资图景。 业绩有望增长 回顾2025年，估值扩张是A股市场上 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the investment outlook for 2026, focusing on equity assets, gold, and the impact of macroeconomic factors on market trends [7][12]. Equity Assets - Equity assets are expected to remain a "must-have" in investment portfolios, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks likely to continue showing strong structural performance in 2026 [7][8]. - The decline in risk-free interest rates is anticipated to support the risk premium of equity assets, which are expected to benefit from a relatively loose global monetary and fiscal environment [8][9]. - The increasing competitiveness of Chinese companies in the global tech cycle is expected to attract overseas capital into Chinese assets, providing significant support for equity investments [8][9]. AI Sector - The AI-related capital expenditure is projected to continue growing in 2026, positively impacting industrial demand and stabilizing industrial product prices, which will benefit China's manufacturing profitability [8][11]. - Despite some overheating in specific AI stocks, the overall risk of systemic adjustment in the AI sector is considered low, with strong profit growth expected in the AI computing power segment [11][12]. - Key areas of focus for AI investments include advancements in foundational model capabilities, revenue growth from AI applications, and the financing progress of North American cloud providers [11]. Gold Investment - The core logic for gold price increases is expected to remain valid in 2026, driven by global central bank purchases and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid rising uncertainty [12][13]. - However, the potential for high-level fluctuations in gold prices exists due to the increased proportion of gold assets in investment portfolios as prices rise [12][13]. - The total holdings of global gold ETFs have reached 3,932 tons, indicating strong ongoing demand for physical gold [12]. Commodity Outlook - The company is optimistic about investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and lithium carbonate, driven by ongoing capital expenditure in AI and power grids, despite supply constraints [13][14]. - The energy and chemical sectors are expected to present structural trading opportunities due to high inflation and supply-side adjustments [14][15]. - Silver is highlighted for its dual role in finance and industry, presenting significant investment opportunities amid supply tightness [14][15]. Asset Allocation Strategy - The company plans to focus on equity assets in 2026, particularly in technology, non-bank financials, and commodities, while also considering the economic recovery's impact on commodity markets [14][15]. - A diversified asset allocation strategy is deemed essential, with an emphasis on tracking micro changes in industries and timing trades effectively [14][15]. - In bond investments, the company will focus on the short to medium term, considering the potential for upward pressure on long-term bonds due to supply and inflation expectations [15].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is a highly polarizing stock, influenced by CEO Elon Musk's behavior and political involvement, leading to a divided perception among investors [1][2]. Group 1: Market Position - Tesla has dropped to the third-largest electric vehicle (EV) maker globally, overtaken by two Chinese competitors [5]. - Currently, only 40% of U.S. EV sales are attributed to Tesla, a significant decline from its near-monopoly status during the early pandemic [5]. Group 2: Growth Potential - The bull case for Tesla's growth hinges on its autonomous driving, robotics, and AI divisions, which are expected to outpace the core EV business [6]. - CEO Elon Musk's new $1 trillion pay package is linked to achieving aggressive growth targets in these key segments, suggesting a shift in market perception towards Tesla as a tech/AI company rather than just an automobile manufacturer [7]. - The potential for vertical integration with AI offerings and increased deliveries in key markets like China could drive Tesla's growth in the coming years [8]. Group 3: Future Business Prospects - If the Optimus project becomes a significant business, it could represent 80% of Tesla's current sales, indicating substantial future growth potential [9]. - Investor confidence in Musk's ability to realize his vision will be crucial, as past market reactions have penalized those who doubted his ideas [9].

Core Insights - Many business leaders aim to leverage AI agents for "business upgrades," but AI agents require a deep re-engineering of human-machine collaboration rather than being a plug-and-play solution [2] - The deployment of AI agents without precise scenario positioning, data accumulation, and feedback mechanisms can lead to process bottlenecks instead of unlocking technological value [2] - Achieving "AI-native" operations involves comprehensive optimization from task breakdown to role division and decision-making processes [2] AI Implementation in Companies - AI has been utilized in gaming by companies like NetEase to enhance player engagement through intelligent NPCs that provide emotional feedback, improving player retention [3] - JD.com has focused on using AI to significantly enhance decision-making efficiency in consumer behavior simulations, aiming for personalized product service value [4] - The concept of AI agents is evolving, with expectations for them to possess self-reflection and self-evolution capabilities, allowing them to learn from past tasks [5] Organizational Changes Due to AI - The emergence of AI agents may lead to a transformation in organizational structures, potentially surpassing traditional human-centric models [7] - AI can reduce the complexity of product development by allowing fewer people to manage tasks that previously required larger teams, thus increasing efficiency [9] - The role of human experts may shift towards defining problems and connecting with value systems rather than merely executing tasks [10] AI Applications and Benefits - Companies are creating digital twins of star employees to handle routine inquiries, allowing them to focus on creative work, which can lead to a 70% reduction in basic question handling [18] - AI systems can enhance decision-making for both executives and frontline employees, democratizing access to data and insights [19] - AI can streamline internal processes by generating objective reports and managing promotional activities, although it may lead to a dependency on AI for critical thinking [20] Differences in AI Adoption Between China and the US - The willingness to pay for AI tools is significantly higher in North America compared to China, where users often expect free services [25] - Labor cost differences also influence AI adoption, with higher costs in the US making AI a more attractive alternative to human labor [25] - China's manufacturing sector presents substantial potential for AI integration, but cost sensitivity may limit the adoption of expensive AI systems [25] Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The current AI industry may exhibit bubbles, which can attract talent and capital, ultimately leading to genuine innovations [26] - Startups have opportunities during bubble periods, but they must maintain a competitive edge to survive [26] - The transition to AI may not favor traditional barriers to entry, as companies must adapt quickly to technological changes to remain competitive [26]

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market is expected to rally in 2026 for a fourth consecutive year, marking the longest winning streak in nearly two decades [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - There is a strong consensus among sell-side strategists that the S&P 500 Index will gain an average of 9% next year, with no predictions of a decline from the 21 analysts surveyed [3] - Veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni predicts the S&P 500 will finish next year at 7,700, reflecting an 11% increase from the current close, although he expresses concern over the lack of dissenting opinions [4] Group 2: Market Volatility and Economic Factors - The market experienced significant volatility in 2025, with early selloffs due to potential challenges from DeepSeek and Trump's trade policies, leading to a nearly 20% decline in the S&P 500 from mid-February to early April [5] - Despite these challenges, the S&P 500 rebounded quickly, showcasing one of the fastest recoveries since the 1950s, as strategists adjusted their forecasts upward [5] Group 3: Economic Resilience and AI Investment - The economy has shown surprising resilience post-pandemic, even amidst Trump's tariffs aimed at globalization, with substantial investments in AI driving growth [6] - The five major tech companies have contributed nearly half of the S&P 500's gains this year, fueled by investments in data-center construction and advanced computer chips [6] Group 4: Uncertainty in Market Predictions - The last five years have been marked by significant uncertainty, leading to reactive investor behavior and frequent changes in consensus opinions [7] - Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler & Co., has ceased publishing year-end S&P 500 targets due to the unpredictable nature of the market [7]

冠通期货-宏观2026年报 --美国中期选举，中国十五五开局 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 回顾2025年，全球经济在动荡中前行，海外特朗普上任，关税贸易大棒震惊全球，美联储重启降息催生出流动性牛市；国内，信心的重塑驱动 中国资产之重估，反内卷点燃新一轮供给侧改革，共同构成了影响全球经济走向的两大主线。当下，国际上特朗普交易的余威犹存，但其边际影响 逐步减弱，市场关注点逐步转向美国财政的可持续性与中期选举后政策路径的再校准。国内的宏观政策持续发力，以中央加杠杆为核心，托底经济、 化解风险，并在"十五五"开局之年，将绿色转型与产业升级作为推动高质量发展的核心抓手。 展望2026年，全球政治周期与科技周期的共振料将支撑风险资产，能源转型与AI投资两大浪潮则将重塑大宗商品格局。 美国视角，中期选举成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI technology industry is poised for unprecedented development opportunities as it transitions from being merely an "information connection tool" to a profound "productivity revolution" by 2026, with significant advancements in model capabilities and multi-modal technologies leading to large-scale applications in various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Transition from Tool to Productivity Enhancement - The evolution of AI models in 2026 is likened to a "growing process," indicating a continuous and solid improvement in model capabilities [2]. - AI is now viewed as a key tool for enhancing productivity across industries, moving beyond concerns of market bubbles to practical applications, particularly in code generation and multi-modal capabilities [2]. - The advancements in AI will enable the generation of more realistic and coherent content, with improved reasoning speed and memory functions, enhancing applications in image and video generation [2]. Group 2: Industry Applications and Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in 2026 will be concentrated in sectors such as advertising, AI hardware, and autonomous driving, driven by enhanced model capabilities, particularly in memory and personalization [3]. - The advertising industry is expected to undergo revolutionary changes due to improved multi-modal generation capabilities, which will boost performance in the e-commerce sector [3]. - The maturity of the autonomous driving industry is anticipated to accelerate, with significant developments in L3 autonomous driving models and ongoing advancements from companies like Tesla, Huawei, and XPeng Motors [3]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Hardware - The demand for AI infrastructure is expected to grow as AI needs increase, making it a long-term investment opportunity [4]. - The complexity of AI models will drive the need for enhanced storage and computing capabilities, with data centers and cloud computing infrastructure becoming critical investment areas in 2026 [4]. - AI hardware, including AI glasses, smartphones, and PCs, will face significant market tests, with growth dependent on the integration of multi-modal capabilities [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - In the U.S. market, AI remains a core theme driving technology stocks, with major tech companies' AI revenues beginning to cover depreciation costs, allowing for effective valuation management [5]. - The Hong Kong market is supported by expectations of global liquidity easing, with AI model companies entering the IPO phase, indicating strong investment opportunities in AI infrastructure and applications [6]. - In the A-share market, the focus is on industry chain collaboration and specific application scenarios, with domestic model companies seeking monetization paths in vertical sectors like manufacturing and finance [6]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Concerns about excessive market gains are mitigated by the understanding that as technology becomes integral to productivity, performance improvements will naturally address valuation bubbles [7]. - The first half of 2026 is seen as a critical observation window, with stronger and more practical AI models expected to reshape market consensus, establishing AI as a genuine growth driver rather than just an investment theme [7].

Core Insights - The AI industry is poised for unprecedented growth opportunities as it transitions from being an "information connection tool" to a "productivity revolution" by 2026 [1][2] - The evolution of AI models will be gradual and substantial, enhancing capabilities in reasoning, memory, and content generation [2][3] Industry Trends - AI will increasingly serve as a key tool for productivity enhancement across various sectors, including advertising, e-commerce, AI hardware, and autonomous driving [2][3] - The advertising industry is expected to experience revolutionary changes due to improved multi-modal generation capabilities, which will drive performance growth in e-commerce [3] - The autonomous driving sector is anticipated to accelerate in 2026, with the first L3 autonomous driving models in China receiving approval, marking a significant step towards commercialization [3] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities will emerge in sectors where AI model capabilities are enhanced, particularly in advertising, AI hardware, and autonomous driving [3][4] - AI infrastructure will be a long-term investment opportunity, with increasing demand for storage and computing capabilities as AI models become more complex [4] - AI hardware, including devices like glasses, smartphones, and PCs, will face significant market tests in 2026, driven by the integration of multi-modal capabilities [4] Market Dynamics - In the U.S. market, AI remains a core theme driving technology stocks, with major tech companies' AI revenues beginning to cover depreciation costs [5] - The Hong Kong market is seeing a supportive liquidity environment, with AI model companies entering the IPO phase, indicating strong investment opportunities in AI infrastructure and applications [6] - The A-share market is focusing on industry chain collaboration and specific application scenarios, with domestic model companies entering a commercialization phase [6] Future Outlook - Concerns about excessive market gains should not hinder the growth of technology as performance improvements will naturally absorb valuation bubbles [7] - The first half of 2026 will serve as an observation window for the market, as stronger and more practical AI models are released [7] - The consensus will shift towards recognizing AI as a genuine growth driver rather than just an investment theme [7]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a nine-day rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.03% [1] - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.32%, while the North China 50 Index rose by 0.11% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 1.4078 trillion yuan, a decrease of 57.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 3,400 stocks in the market declined [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included carbon fiber, diversified finance, brain-computer interfaces, non-ferrous metals, CPO, wind power equipment, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots [1] - Underperforming sectors were food and beverage, retail, batteries, chemicals, and influenza [1] ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector saw gains, with the Dachen Fund Non-Ferrous Metal ETF rising by 2.9% [1] - The oil and gas sector performed well, with the Penghua Fund Oil and Gas ETF and the Jingshun Great Wall Fund Oil and Gas ETF increasing by 2% and 1.92%, respectively [1] - The AI sector showed signs of recovery, with the Kexin AI ETF and the Kexin Artificial Intelligence ETF rising by 2% [1] - The commercial aerospace sector continued its upward trend, with the Satellite ETF from Yifangda increasing by 1.7% [1] Declining ETFs - High-premium Hong Kong stock ETFs saw significant declines, with the Hang Seng ETF for Hong Kong Stock Connect hitting the limit down and the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF dropping by 7% [1] - The latest premium/discount rates for these ETFs were 5% and 0.27%, respectively [1] - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector declined, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF falling by 2% and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF decreasing by 1.7% [1] - Power stocks experienced a pullback, with the Green Power ETF and Power ETF both declining by 1.6% [1]