Core Insights - The cash flow of urban investment companies has improved in 2024, indicating progress in market-oriented transformation and debt reduction [1][2][3] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 0.81 trillion yuan, marking the first positive net cash flow in five years [1][2] - Urban investment companies are focusing on cash flow management and diversifying income sources to enhance asset utilization and profitability [2][3] Group 1: Cash Flow Improvement - By the end of 2024, urban investment companies' cash inflow reached 23.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.06% [1][2] - Nearly 80% of key provincial urban investment companies reported positive cash flow, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% [3] - The shift in focus from being service providers to comprehensive urban operators is evident, with companies exploring community services to enhance cash flow [3] Group 2: Long-term Equity Investment - Urban investment companies are increasingly engaging in long-term equity investments, with a total scale of 6.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a 12.3% increase from 2023 [6] - Despite the growth in investment scale, net investment income decreased by 6.77% year-on-year to 0.31 trillion yuan [6] - The rationale behind long-term equity investments includes business expansion, profit enhancement, and alignment with regional industrial policies [7] Group 3: Market-oriented Transformation - The transformation of urban investment companies into local state-owned capital operation platforms is gaining traction, focusing on equity and fund investments [7] - Companies are leveraging strong relationships with local governments to participate in industry guidance and enterprise cultivation [7] - The ongoing reforms aim to push local financing platforms to exit by over 50% by mid-2025, indicating a significant shift in operational strategy [5]

调节方法: 调节方法:1、前期差错更 3、首期美错更正 作为城市基础设施建设的主力军，城投平台长期承担着城市开发、基建投资等重任。然而近年来， 35 号文分类监管、47号文债务管控 等政策持续落地，叠加 "335" 指标 等最新要求，城建类业务收缩与债 务压力不断 倒逼着城投产业加速转型 。 在此背景下，城投产业如何突破政策红线、理顺转型路径？我们梳理了一些城 投产业转型实操中的首 发关注细节 分享给大家—— 01 公司债"355"指标下， 政府补贴应关注哪些细节？ √ 指标要求:报告期内,政府补贴占净利润的比重不超过50% | 所有者权益合计 | -15,000.00 | | --- | --- | | 负债及权益小计 | -20,000.00 | | 其他收益 | -20,000.00 | | 所得税费用 | -5,000.00 | | MANS A A B A 1 2 1 | 17 000 00 | | 受影响的报表项目名称 | 早位: 月元 影响 2022 年报表金额 | | --- | --- | | 其他应收款-原值 | -20.000.00 | | 坏账准备-其他应收款 | | | 其他应收款- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively assesses the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprises in 2024 from three dimensions: the profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity. Overall, the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprise - class public bond issuers has increased, with significant differences at the enterprise, industry, and regional levels [3][6][8]. - At the enterprise level, in 2024, although the financial flexibility of enterprises has marginally improved, overall profitability has continued to weaken, short - term liquidity is under pressure, and the liquidity risk has further increased, with intensified pressure on tail enterprises [6]. - At the industry level, in 2024, against the backdrop of shrinking terminal demand and continuous pressure on the entire real - estate chain, liquidity risks have significantly accumulated in industries related to the upstream and downstream of real estate and urban investment platforms deeply tied to land finance. Industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, and the risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly compared to 2023 [6]. - At the regional level, in 2024, Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Construction of the Liquidity Risk Measurement System from the Perspective of Debt Repayment Credit - The assessment of liquidity risk from the perspective of debt - repayment credit is mainly based on the analysis of liquidity sources and applications. Enterprises with good profitability, high financial flexibility, and strong short - term solvency generally face lower liquidity and default risks. The report selects several quantitative financial indicators from three dimensions (profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity) for basic evaluation and maps the scores to a five - level classification of liquidity risk evaluation results (L1 - L5) [4][9][12]. - The basic evaluation indicators include total asset return rate, asset - liability ratio, short - term debt ratio, EBIT/interest expense, (EBITDA - capital expenditure)/interest expense, operating cash flow net amount to current liability ratio, cash - to - short - term debt ratio, current ratio, and cash - to - current liability ratio [11]. 3.2. Sample Overview - Considering data availability, the report selects bond - issuing entities with outstanding public bonds (enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, project revenue notes) as of May 26, 2025, excluding those that have experienced material defaults or have unavailable financial data. A total of 3,061 issuing entities are used as sample data, and their annual reports from 2021 - 2024 are used for analysis. Currently, the issuing entities of outstanding public bonds in China are mainly urban investment and state - owned enterprises [5][13]. 3.3. Analysis of the Liquidity Risk of Non - Financial Enterprise - Class Public Bond Issuers in 2024 3.3.1. Enterprise - Level Analysis - In 2024, the risk center of public bond - issuing entities has further deteriorated, and the proportion of tail enterprises has reached a new high. The overall profitability of enterprises has weakened, with the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreasing by 3.3% compared to the previous year. The proportion of entities with liquidity risk evaluation results of L4 and L5 has increased from 49.0% and 5.4% in 2023 to 52.3% and 7.4% in 2024, respectively [14]. - From the perspective of each indicator dimension, in 2024, the profitability of public bond issuers in China has continued to decline, and the coverage ability of operating cash flow has weakened. Although the financial flexibility has marginally improved, the short - term debt pressure remains high, and the short - term liquidity has generally tightened [20][21]. 3.3.2. Industry - Level Analysis - In 2024, industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises in each industry exceeding 60%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises increasing by more than 10 percentage points [23][24]. - The real - estate industry continues to adjust, with real - estate enterprises facing significant cash - flow pressure due to factors such as weakening demand, cautious development strategies, and high inventory [25]. - The steel industry has seen a decline in production and demand, with prices falling and enterprises facing significant performance pressure and increased liquidity risks [26]. - The basic chemicals industry is in a low - prosperity stage, facing challenges such as over - capacity and weak domestic demand, with the overall profitability under pressure [27]. - The building decoration industry is affected by weak downstream demand, with a decline in new contracts and increased pressure on construction funds, especially for weak - quality tail enterprises [28]. - The commerce and retail industry has been affected by weakening consumer demand, with profit pressure on enterprises [29]. - Urban investment platforms face continued pressure on local finance due to the adjustment of the land market, and although the asset and debt structure has been optimized, the internal operating pressure remains, and the liquidity risk of some weak - quality entities has increased [29]. 3.3.3. Regional - Level Analysis - In 2024, regions such as Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises exceeding 70%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [33][36].

Group 1: Credit Bond Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to continue in a volatile state, with a focus on interest rate strategies and band trading being more favorable than pure selection of varieties [5][38] - The strategy suggests focusing on short to medium-term credit bonds and high-grade long-term bonds to seek opportunities for interest rate compression [5][38] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in high-grade bonds from local government financing vehicles, real estate, and stable industries during market adjustments [5][38] Group 2: Local Government Financing Bonds - The transformation of local government financing vehicles is entering a complex phase, with potential pricing discrepancies as platforms adapt to new regulations [2][43] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to remain low due to strict regulatory oversight and the ongoing transition of platforms [2][43] - Focus on short to medium-term bonds from regions with stable cash flows, particularly in Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Henan, is recommended [2] Group 3: Financial Bonds and Varieties - High-grade perpetual bonds can be traded in response to interest rate fluctuations, but the trading space is limited and requires high trading standards [3][39] - The strategy includes focusing on high-grade bonds with a maturity of 3-5 years for stable institutions, while actively trading lower-grade bonds during market adjustments [3][39] - The expansion of TLAC non-capital instruments and their comparison with secondary capital bonds is highlighted as an area of interest [3][39] Group 4: Industrial Bonds - Industrial bonds have shown some recovery in profitability, but performance remains varied across sectors, with strong performance in automotive, machinery, and utilities, while real estate and construction sectors lag [4] - The recommendation is to focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises and stable private enterprises for medium-term investments [4] Group 5: Real Estate Bonds - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a recommendation to focus on high-grade bonds from state-owned enterprises while monitoring the recovery of the sector [4] - The potential for policy support in the real estate market could enhance recovery in core cities, but caution is advised for lower-tier cities [4] Group 6: Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) and Public REITs - The market for consumer finance ABS is expanding, with opportunities for variety exploration in a volatile market [3][39] - Public REITs are recommended to balance opportunities in both primary and secondary markets, focusing on stable projects [3][39]

2025 年 06 月 06 日 资产、债务增速双降，城投整合效果显著 固定收益研究团队 ——固收专题 定 收 益 研 究 固 收 专 题 本报告梳理了截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日公开市场发债并可获取近三年财务信息的 2088 家城投平台（已剔除母子公司），对其 2024 年财务报表进行资产、负债、 权益和财务指标分析，观测城投行业财务表现变化情况。 资产端：城投平台总资产规模稳步增长，头部城投平台资产增速较快 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究报告 《经济略为偏弱，转债波动率历史低 位—固收专题》-2025.6.2 《微观结构拥挤度高，转债防范阶段 调整—固收专题》-2025.5.25 《财政数据，验证经济状态、政策取 向—固收专题》-2025.5.21 陈曦（分析师） 刘瑞（分析师） chenxi2@kysec.cn liurui2@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521100002 证书编号：S0790525010001 2024 年样本城投平台的整体资产规模为 142.40 万亿元，同比增速为 5.26%，较 2023 年下降 4.40 个百分点。其中资产规模 1000 亿 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the operational data of 655 county-level investment companies, indicating a total asset scale of 30.26 trillion yuan and annual revenue of 1.77 trillion yuan, showcasing improvements in governance and operational capabilities [1][2] - The transformation of county-level investment companies is shifting from "risk breakthrough" to "momentum reshaping," with debt resolution being a prerequisite and differentiated development as the direction [1][5] Asset and Revenue Overview - Among the 655 county-level investment companies, 61 have total assets exceeding 100 billion yuan, with 10 companies surpassing 200 billion yuan, and 3 companies exceeding 300 billion yuan [2] - The average total asset value for these companies is 462.1 million yuan, while the average annual revenue is 27.04 million yuan, indicating that 75% of the companies fall below the average revenue level [2][3] Revenue Distribution - The top 20 county-level investment companies have annual revenues exceeding 10 billion yuan, with the highest being Qingdao West Coast New Area Integration Holding Group at 54.56 billion yuan [3] - Conversely, some companies report revenues as low as 61 thousand yuan, reflecting a reliance on traditional business models that result in slow project returns and low revenue [3] Market Transformation Strategies - Experts suggest that market-oriented transformation is essential for county-level investment companies to enhance revenue, advocating for participation in local industrial development and establishing sustainable revenue models [4] - Emphasis is placed on improving operational capabilities and introducing market-oriented management mechanisms to boost efficiency and profitability [4] Differentiated Development Approach - The report indicates a need for differentiated development strategies based on regional economic conditions, with recommendations for policy support for both economically developed and underdeveloped areas [6][7] - Leading county-level investment companies should focus on becoming comprehensive state-owned capital investment and operation companies, while smaller companies should concentrate on local advantages and specialized development [7]

"提前兑付可以理解，但绝不能损害投资者的利益。" 根据"22峨眉02"募集说明书，该债券目前余额为6.50亿元，期限为5年期，票面利率为6.00%。该债券由 乐山国有资产投资运营(集团)有限公司担保，当前该只债券剩余期限为2年。 发行人峨眉山发展唯一股东为峨眉山市国有资产监督管理委员会，峨眉山发展负责峨眉山市城市道路、 桥梁、旅游基础设施等工程的建设。 5月20日，峨眉山发展发布《关于提前兑付"峨眉山发展(控股)有限责任公司2022年面向专业投资者非公 开发行公司债券(第二期)"的议案》。 关于提前兑付的原因，峨眉山发展强调，为有效优化财务结构、降低财务成本，现提议对"22峨眉02"全 部剩余本金及应计利息进行提前兑付。每张债券兑付净价为100元。 "在低利率环境下，二级市场投资者的买入价格通常高于票面，如果加速到期，投资者将面临近10%的 亏损"。 5月27日，经济观察报记者获悉，峨眉山发展(控股)有限责任公司(下称"峨眉山发展")宣布，旗下债 券"22峨眉02"计划提前进行兑付。然而，这一决定引发了多家债券持有人的争议。 作为"22峨眉02"的机构持有人之一，朱啸所在的机构于2024年下半年购买了"22峨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, 16 bond - issuing urban investment companies had acceptor overdue, with a monthly overdue amount of 336 million yuan. According to the list released by the Shanghai Bill Exchange on May 9th, a total of 919 entities had acceptor overdue in April, including 16 bond - issuing urban investment companies, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous month. The cumulative overdue amount of bills in that month was 336 million yuan, a decrease of 69 million yuan compared to the previous month. Among them, the cumulative overdue amount of new entities was 289 million yuan, and the new overdue amount of existing entities was 47 million yuan [1]. - Four urban investment companies had overdue for the first time, and one was the first overdue entity in its region. In terms of entity types, among all 16 overdue entities, 4 were newly disclosed, including a municipal - level platform in Xinyang and district - county - level platforms in Changsha, Huai'an, and Tai'an. In terms of regions, the urban investment companies with acceptor overdue in this month were mainly distributed in 6 provinces, with Shandong having relatively more, with a total of 8 entities having acceptor overdue. In the new regions, a district and county under Tai'an had a bond - issuing urban investment company with acceptor overdue for the first time [2]. - As of April 2025, a total of 283 bond - issuing urban investment companies had experienced acceptor overdue. From August 2021 to April 2025, there were 1113 records of overdue bills of bond - issuing urban investment companies, involving 283 bond - issuing urban investment companies. In terms of disclosure times, 149 were disclosed more than once, and 82 reached 5 times or more. In terms of the latest overdue amount, 87 bond - issuing urban investment companies reached 100 million yuan or more, and 12 were not less than 500 million yuan [2]. - District - county - level and AA - rated urban investment companies accounted for a relatively high proportion. In terms of administrative levels, 161 were district - county - level entities, 58 were municipal - level entities, 62 were park - level entities, and 2 were provincial - level entities. In terms of entity ratings, there were relatively more AA entities, with a total of 196, 66 AA+ entities, 14 AA - and below entities, 4 AAA entities, and 3 unrated entities. In terms of regional distribution, all overdue bond - issuing urban investment companies were distributed in 24 provinces, with 87 in Shandong, 38 in Jiangsu, 29 in Henan, 26 in Guizhou, 15 in Hunan, 14 in Yunnan, 13 in Sichuan, 10 in Shaanxi, and less than 10 in other provinces [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs City Investment Bill Overdue Subject Quantity and Monthly Occurrence Amount - The chart shows the quantity of city investment bill overdue subjects and the monthly occurrence amount (in ten thousand yuan, number of companies) [6][9]. City Investment Bill Overdue Monthly Balance - The chart shows the monthly balance of city investment bill overdue (in ten thousand yuan) [6][12]. City Investment Bill Overdue Subject Regional Distribution - The chart shows the regional distribution of city investment bill overdue subjects, with 32 new subjects added in the past six months (in number of companies) [6][16]. City Investment Bill Overdue Subject Administrative Level and Subject Rating Distribution - The chart shows the administrative level and subject rating distribution of city investment bill overdue subjects (in number of companies). There are 58 municipal - level, 161 district - county - level, and 62 park - level entities. In terms of ratings, there are 4 AAA, 66 AA+, 196 AA, 14 AA - and below, and 3 unrated entities [6][17]. List of City Investment Companies with Acceptor Overdue (Partial) - The table lists some city investment companies with acceptor overdue, including disclosure time, subject code, cumulative disclosure times, administrative level, province, city, district, park, subject rating, cumulative overdue occurrence amount (in ten thousand yuan), and overdue balance at the end of the month (in ten thousand yuan) [6][21]. Cumulative Overdue Occurrence Amount of City Investment Bills (Partial) - The table shows the cumulative overdue occurrence amount of city investment bills (in ten thousand yuan) of some entities from April 2024 to April 2025 [6][23]. Cumulative Overdue Balance of City Investment Bills (Partial) - The table shows the cumulative overdue balance of city investment bills (in ten thousand yuan) of some entities from April 2024 to April 2025 [6][25].

Core Viewpoint - The urban investment platform is under pressure to transform due to ongoing regulatory policies and debt management requirements, necessitating a reevaluation of its operational strategies and revenue structures [1]. Group 1: Government Subsidies and Financial Metrics - The requirement states that government subsidies should not exceed 50% of net profit during the reporting period [2][3]. - Various adjustment methods for calculating the impact of government subsidies include market-based recognition and flexible application of calculation formulas [3][4]. - The average of government subsidies as a percentage of net profit for 2023 and 2024 can be used to determine compliance with the 50% threshold [3]. Group 2: Revenue Recognition and Classification - The requirement specifies that construction-related revenue should not exceed 30% of total operating revenue [5]. - Key considerations for distinguishing between construction-related and market-based revenue include whether the payment source is a government entity and the nature of the project assignment [6][8]. - The classification of trade income and its implications for industry attributes must be disclosed, particularly regarding major clients and suppliers [8]. Group 3: Asset Management and Integration - The requirement indicates that construction-related assets should not exceed 30% of total assets [9]. - Key details include the definition of construction-related assets and the need for transparency regarding the composition of total assets [9][10]. - The marketability of inventory is crucial, with an emphasis on the ability to realize value through market transactions rather than government buybacks [11]. Group 4: Course and Practical Insights - A course titled "Key Points and Practical Cases for Urban Investment Industry Transformation" will provide in-depth analysis of revenue structure optimization and asset integration paths, focusing on compliance with new regulations [13][15]. - The course will cover various case studies from different sectors, including construction and technology investments, to illustrate practical strategies for transformation [16].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the fixed income market, particularly focusing on the U.S. economy, monetary policy, and the bond market dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy** - Economic external demand pressures are evident, leading to a pessimistic market outlook on economic expectations, with a flattening yield curve observed. Attention is drawn to the U.S. Federal Reserve's policies, the dollar exchange rate, and the progress of fiscal expansion, while cautioning against the potential impacts of the U.S. "twin deficits" on dollar asset credit [1][5][7]. 2. **U.S. Economic Conditions** - The U.S. economy is currently in a state of stagflation rather than recession, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declining primarily due to rising inflation expectations. Global trade growth is expected to peak in 2024, with increasing tensions in U.S.-China relations leading to a significant restructuring of the global trade economy [1][10][11]. 3. **Domestic Policy Focus** - Domestic policies are aimed at boosting internal demand, but negative overseas influences may weaken the effectiveness of these policies. Investment opportunities in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing are limited, while consumption is constrained by savings willingness, income expectations, and falling housing prices. Future policies should prioritize consumption promotion [1][13][14]. 4. **Monetary Policy Adjustments** - The monetary policy is characterized by maintaining stability in major tools while flexibly adjusting minor tools. A decline in real financing demand has led to spontaneous easing, with interest rates expected to decrease from May to August. The year is anticipated to be a period of declining interest rates nested within a macro-prudential framework, with caution advised regarding financial risks arising from this decline [1][15][16]. 5. **Bond Market Dynamics** - The convertible bond market remains strong with a clear bullish trend, supported by stock recovery enhancing valuation. Future performance will depend on equity market conditions, with smaller-cap convertible bonds showing more pronounced returns in a volatile market [4][20]. 6. **Credit Bond Market Performance** - The credit bond market showed weak performance in April, influenced by tariff policies leading to credit spread compression and subsequent adjustments. Higher coupon credit bonds present certain opportunities, particularly in mid-to-short-term strategies and municipal bonds [4][34]. 7. **U.S. Fiscal Policy and Deficits** - The U.S. has reached historical highs in fiscal expansion since 2020, with deficit rates significantly above pre-2019 levels. A shift towards fiscal tightening is anticipated in the coming years, with potential implications for the dollar's value [5][7]. 8. **Global Trade and Economic Growth Predictions** - Global trade is expected to peak in 2024, with a decline anticipated in 2025. The ongoing U.S.-China competition is likely to intensify, increasing the probability of a global economic restructuring [11]. 9. **Investment Opportunities in Specific Sectors** - Sectors such as public utilities and coal, which are less affected by tariff impacts and have stable fundamentals, are highlighted as worthy of attention. Additionally, the real estate industry in strong provinces and sectors supported by technology innovation policies may present potential investment opportunities [51][52]. 10. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook** - The market sentiment towards dollar assets has weakened, particularly concerning U.S. debt repayment issues. While the immediate risk of default is low, the high debt rollover pressure and interest costs are significant concerns for decision-making [9][10]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes the need for a macro-prudential perspective in evaluating the bond market, considering both external risks and domestic economic pressures. The potential for financial risks arising from interest rate declines is highlighted, necessitating careful monitoring of credit risk and liquidity conditions [17][18]. - The convertible bond market's performance is closely tied to equity market trends, with a focus on the impact of stock price movements on convertible bond valuations and investor strategies [20][21]. - The anticipated issuance of special bonds for debt resolution and the potential for significant municipal bond opportunities are noted, particularly in the context of land reserve special bonds [46][47]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and forecasts discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and investment considerations.