Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong performance on the first trading day of the Year of the Horse, with all three major indices closing higher, driven by resource sectors and policy expectations as the Two Sessions approach [3][15]. Market Performance - On February 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.87% to 4117 points, the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.36% to 14291 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.99% to 3308 points [3][15]. - The total trading volume for the day reached 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating heightened market activity [3][15]. Sector Analysis - Resource sectors, particularly oil and gas, led the market rally, with multiple oil and gas ETFs hitting the daily limit [4][16]. - In contrast, the film and media sector saw significant declines, with related ETFs dropping over 7% due to disappointing box office performance during the Spring Festival [4][17]. ETF Market Insights - Oil and gas ETFs showed remarkable performance, with several reaching the daily limit and an average increase of around 10% [5][18]. - The Standard & Poor's Oil and Gas ETF recorded a trading volume of 1.117 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 152.76%, reflecting strong market interest in this sector [5][18]. Investment Themes - Analysts suggest that resource products and technology sectors may become the main themes for the spring market, driven by policy expectations and industry trends [3][11]. - The focus on stable growth policies ahead of the Two Sessions is expected to benefit infrastructure and resource sectors [11][24]. Market Sentiment - Despite the overall market rally, there is a notable divergence in sector performance, with technology stocks experiencing mixed results [21][23]. - Southbound capital flows showed a "buy the dip" strategy, with net purchases of 3.131 billion Hong Kong dollars on February 24, indicating continued interest in the market despite fluctuations [22][24].

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 2 月 24 日 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号 山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： 新年新气象 市场或迎"暖春" 【20260209-20260215】 核心观点 大类资产总览：节前仍显波动，但暖意初现。 节前一周，权益市场波动幅度仍然较大，叠加前期获利资金 的了结与板块的轮动，市场经历了频繁且大幅的波动，这种 波动在节前稍显缓和，但依旧存在，在长假期带来的不确定 性中，场内资金仍处于分歧与调整的阶段。但同样也可以看 出，在历经了为期两周的调整后，节前市场虽有波动，但暖 意初现，一方面，场内成交金额持续维持较高区间，对市场 形成有效支撑；另一方面，投资者虽对长假期所带来的短期 不确定性有一定担忧，但中长期对市场依然有较大信心，因 此，前期的回调并未对市场引起较大的扰动。而债市则迎来 短期"蜜月周期"，资金面的持续宽松和权益市场、商品市 场逸散的低风险资金，都为债市短期是上行带来了充足的资 金补充。商品市场仍在回落，贵金属前期过 ...

1、行情 马年第一个交易日，A股整体呈现小幅高开低走的表现。 题材方面，影视板块开盘集体核按钮，博纳影业、横店影视、中国电影集体一字跌停，光线传媒、万达电影、金逸影视、幸福蓝海、中文在线等 核按钮后跌停或重挫； 同样受到"清算"的还有机器人、算力板块，均是高开低走； 油气股开盘大涨，准油股份、山东墨龙、洲际油气、中曼石油、通源石油（20CM）、惠博普、新锦动力（20CM）、博迈科、中油工程、石化 油服、贝肯能源、中海油服、潜能恒信（20CM）先后涨停； 玻纤再度大涨，宏和科技、国际复材（20CM）、中国巨石涨停，菲利华、中材科技、长海股份大涨； MLCC概念高开，风华高科一字，昀冢科技20CM涨停，三环集团、达利凯普、国瓷材料、洁美科技等大涨； 磷化工掀起涨停潮，澄星股份、和邦生物、川发龙蟒、金正大、湖北宜化、云图控股、云天化、川润股份、兴发集团集体涨停； 此外，CPO、黄金、PCB、周期股等大涨，AI产业链、量子计算等重挫。 截至收盘，沪指、深成指、创业板指分别收涨0.87%、1.36%、0.99%，市场超4000股上涨，近1400股下跌，三市累计成交量超2.2万亿。 2、影视 影视板块今日迎来集体重挫。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened positively on the first trading day of the Lunar New Year, with all three major indices rising, indicating a strong start for the year [1] - The overall market showed a significant upward trend, with over 4,000 stocks rising and more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit up, reflecting strong bullish sentiment [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,117.41 points, up 0.87% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14,291.57 points, up 1.36% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3,308.26 points, up 0.99% [3] Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 219.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, indicating a clear influx of new capital [3] Sector Performance - The oil and gas sector, along with precious metals, led the market gains, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising international commodity prices [4] - Notable stocks in the oil sector included Keli Co., which rose over 20%, and several others hitting the daily limit up [4] - The precious metals sector also performed well, with gold prices rebounding, and stocks like Xiaocheng Technology rising over 15% [4] Consumer Market Signals - The gold retail market is showing signs of price increases, with some products expected to rise by over 33% [5] - Other sectors such as MICC, phosphorus chemicals, and glass fiber also saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [5] Weakness in Film and Entertainment - In contrast to the resource sectors, the film and entertainment sector faced significant declines, with major companies like Light Media and Wanda Film experiencing sharp drops [6] - Analysts noted that while the Spring Festival box office was strong, it did not exceed expectations, leading to profit-taking in the sector [6] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The market is showing a clear preference for sectors with pricing power and defensive attributes, such as oil, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [7] - The upcoming policy window and the potential for increased infrastructure investment are expected to support market stability and growth [7] - Analysts predict a continued upward trend in the market leading up to the two sessions, with a focus on sectors like robotics, AI applications, and energy [8]

北水恢复交易首日，港股三大指数集体走低，恒指再度失守两万七大关，恒科指数则跌超2%。截至收 盘，恒生指数跌1.82%或491.59点，报26590.32点，全日成交额2509.92亿港元；恒生国企指数跌2.06%， 报9007.86点；恒生科技指数跌2.13%，报5270.70点。 银河证券认为，科技板块仍是中长期投资主线，经历近期的回调后，估值压力下降，在AI大模型更新 加快、AI应用加速推进的背景下，相关板块有望反弹回升。此外，中东地缘风险升温、美国关税政策 调整推升避险情绪，贵金属、能源板块有望震荡上行；消费板块当前估值偏低，随着促消费政策加码， 消费活力逐步释放，板块仍具上涨空间。 蓝筹股表现 万洲国际(00288)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨4.42%，报10.39港元，成交额3.26亿港元，贡献恒指5.87点。 瑞银发布研报称，展望未来，该行相信万洲国际正进入盈利波动性较低的阶段，受惠于美国生猪价格前 景更趋稳定，以及业务策略转向利润较高的包装肉制品，将提升盈利及股东回报的能见度。 其他蓝筹股方面，恒基地产(00012)涨2.08%，报35.32港元，贡献恒指1.69点；华润啤酒(00291)涨 2.0 ...

Market Overview - On the first trading day after the resumption of Northbound trading, Hong Kong's three major indices collectively declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling below the 27,000 mark, closing down 1.82% or 491.59 points at 26,590.32 points, with a total turnover of HKD 250.99 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 2.06% to 9,007.86 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.13% to 5,270.70 points [1] Sector Performance - The technology sector remains a long-term investment focus, with valuation pressure easing after recent pullbacks, and potential for rebound driven by accelerated AI model updates and applications [1] - The energy and precious metals sectors are expected to rise amid heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and adjustments in U.S. tariff policies [1] - The consumer sector, currently undervalued, is anticipated to have upward potential as consumption policies are strengthened [1] Blue-Chip Stocks - WH Group (00288) led blue-chip gains, rising 4.42% to HKD 10.39, contributing 5.87 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included Henderson Land (00012) up 2.08% and China Resources Beer (00291) up 2.02% [2] - China Biologic Products (01177) fell 6.58%, negatively impacting the index by 7.48 points [2] Hot Sectors - Major tech stocks faced pressure, with Tencent down over 3% and Alibaba down over 2% [3] - Storage concepts saw significant gains, with Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) up 11.91% and Longsys Technology (06809) up 4.92% [3] - Oil and gas stocks rose amid concerns over escalating tensions in Iran, with Shandong Molong (00568) up 11.41% [4] AI and Technology - The AI sector continues to show promise, with significant growth in token usage, particularly in Chinese models, which account for 61% of the total token volume [5] - The market anticipates ongoing rapid growth in AI applications and commercial viability [5] Film Sector - The film sector faced challenges, with the 2026 Spring Festival box office down approximately 40% year-on-year, indicating a need for improved content quality [6] - Major film stocks like Maoyan Entertainment (01896) and Huayi Brothers (01003) saw declines of 8.18% and 5.26%, respectively [6] Notable Stock Movements - Kwan Hung Holdings (01888) surged 12.37% following a profit forecast indicating a 165% increase in net profit for the fiscal year ending December 2025 [7] - Weichai Power (02338) rose 7.29% after a report highlighted its emergency generator's use in a major data center [8] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) reached a new high, up 5.37%, following a significant shipbuilding contract announcement [9] - Standard Chartered (02888) saw a 3.07% increase after reporting a 6% rise in operating income for the fiscal year 2025 [10] - China Duty Free Group (01880) faced a 10.51% drop due to losing some operating rights at major airports [11]

Group 1 - On February 24, the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the A-share market experienced a rise, with all three major indices closing higher and over 4,000 stocks increasing in value, including 109 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] - Oil and gas stocks showed strong performance, with companies like Tongyuan Petroleum and Xinjing Power hitting the daily limit, while several others also saw significant gains [1] - The fertilizer and pesticide sector continued to strengthen in the afternoon, with multiple companies, including Liuguo Chemical and Yuntianhua, reaching the daily limit, driven by a rise in domestic urea prices [1] Group 2 - The electric equipment sector saw a strong performance, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, and reports indicated that many transformer factories are operating at full capacity, with some orders extending to 2027 [2] - Precious metals experienced a collective rise, with the sector increasing over 4%, and specific stocks like Xiaocheng Technology and Hunan Silver hitting the daily limit [2] - The main silver futures contract saw a significant increase of over 14%, with the price reported at 23,001 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 3 - The cultivated diamond concept stocks surged, with companies like Sifangda and Huanghe Xuanfeng hitting the daily limit, while the fiberglass sector remained active with International Composites achieving a historical high [5] - The software and cultural media sectors faced declines, with several companies, including Light Media and Wanda Film, hitting the daily limit downwards [5] - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 1.81% and major tech stocks experiencing significant declines [5] Group 4 - Large model stocks performed well against the trend, with Zhiyu experiencing a rise of over 12%, and its market value briefly exceeding 300 billion HKD [6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the oil and gas industry in ensuring national energy security and supporting economic development while transitioning to a green and low-carbon economy [1][3][6]. Group 1: Development Goals and Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has laid a solid foundation for the oil and gas industry, focusing on enhancing energy security and promoting green transformation [6][8]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to establish a new energy system and strengthen the energy security strategy, emphasizing the integration of fossil and renewable energy [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Positioning and Responsibilities - The oil and gas sector is crucial for national economic stability, tasked with ensuring supply, enabling transformation, and fostering collaborative development [3][4]. - The industry must enhance domestic supply capabilities and focus on technological advancements to meet core energy demands [3][6]. Group 3: Achievements and Infrastructure Development - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," the oil and gas industry saw significant investment, with an average annual investment of 387 billion yuan, a 48% increase from the previous plan [6]. - The construction of a comprehensive oil and gas infrastructure network has accelerated, with a total pipeline length reaching 200,000 kilometers and storage capacity increasing to 54 billion cubic meters [6][7]. Group 4: International Cooperation and Green Development - The industry has expanded international cooperation, with an average annual import of 540 million tons of crude oil and 167 billion cubic meters of natural gas during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [7]. - Green and low-carbon initiatives have been advanced, including the integration of oil and gas exploration with renewable energy sources [7][8]. Group 5: Future Planning and Key Tasks - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will focus on enhancing supply security, deepening reforms, and accelerating green transformation [8][9]. - Key tasks include improving oil and gas exploration, strengthening infrastructure connectivity, and enhancing international cooperation [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of cyclical sectors such as oil and gas, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, leading to a 3.2% increase in the National Free Cash Flow Index, outperforming major style indices [1] - The index's constituent stocks include notable performers like Silver Nonferrous and Yuntianhua, which hit the daily limit, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China International Marine Containers rose over 7% [1] - The tracking ETF for this index, E Fund (159222), saw a net subscription of 15 million shares during intraday trading, indicating strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The National Free Cash Flow Index employs a selection logic centered on free cash flow rates and adjusts its constituents quarterly, maintaining a balanced market capitalization across sectors, focusing on energy, automotive, and industrial materials [1] - According to Wind data, the E Fund ETF (159222) experienced a net inflow of over 600 million yuan in the past month, attracting attention in a volatile market [1] - Since its launch, the product has achieved an excess return of 5.7% compared to the index, ranking first among ETFs tracking the same index, with a tracking error of only 0.07% [1]

金融期货早评 宏观：关税风波再起 【市场资讯】1）美联储理事沃勒：多位 CEO 称 AI 将致大量裁员，3 月利率决议取决于 2 月就业数据。2）特朗普关税—①欧洲议会暂停批准欧美贸易协议。②特朗普警告不遵守与 美国贸易协定的国家将面临更高关税。③美众议院议长约翰逊谈关税退税：无先例可循， 将由白宫定夺。④英首相发言人：一切措施都在考虑之中。3）伊朗问题—①特朗普称倾向 于与伊朗达成协议，而非战争。②美特使威特科夫和库什纳将参加新一轮美伊谈判。③美 媒称美军参联会主席警告对伊动武风险极高，易陷长期冲突。4）飞猪发布数据显示，春节 假期国内游订单量再创新高，其中门票订单量同比去年增长超 80%，酒店间夜量同比增长 75%。更长假期还带来节中出游需求的进一步释放，大年初二至初五之间出行的订单量同 比增长约三成。 【南华观点】2026 年春节假期期间，海外金融市场主要围绕 AI 产业变局、地缘政治博弈 及关税政策重构三大主线展开博弈。具体来看：一为 AI 产业主线。AI 产业正经历深度生态 变革，产业深化过程中，行业层级分化持续加剧，核心是盈利逻辑的重新定位；二是地缘 政治主线。地缘政治方面，大国关系是影响市场波动 ...