Core Viewpoint - The Russian government has revised its 2025 federal budget to increase spending and lower revenue expectations due to a significant decline in oil and gas income, leading to an expanded fiscal deficit [1][6]. Revenue Summary - From January to May, the federal budget revenue reached 14.73 trillion rubles, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. Non-oil and gas revenue was 10.49 trillion rubles, up 12.3%, while oil and gas revenue fell to 4.24 trillion rubles, down 14.4% [2]. - The decline in oil and gas revenue is attributed to lower average oil prices and a one-time receipt of additional taxes in February 2024, which inflated the previous year's base [2][3]. Expenditure Summary - Total federal budget expenditure from January to May was 18.13 trillion rubles, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%. The cumulative budget deficit reached 3.39 trillion rubles, accounting for 1.5% of GDP [2]. Fiscal Deficit Outlook - The Russian Finance Ministry anticipates a further decline in energy income, estimating a loss of 447 billion rubles by the end of the year. The overall fiscal deficit could expand to between 6 trillion and 7 trillion rubles [3]. Energy Market Dynamics - The uncertainty in energy exports and revenues persists, with the EU considering lowering the oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel, which could severely challenge Russian oil exports [4]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between Israel and Iran, have caused temporary fluctuations in oil prices, but these changes are not expected to have a lasting impact on Russian energy exports [5]. Budget Adjustments - The revised budget includes an increase in spending by 829 billion rubles and a reduction in expected revenue by 4.4%, with a projected deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles, or 1.7% of GDP [6]. - The budget's GDP growth forecast remains at 2.5%, but inflation expectations have been raised from 4.5% to 7.6%, with adjustments made to oil price and ruble exchange rate benchmarks [6].

115 or sense eller p(ag) company a 2017 New Grand cial Sept 2 254 PS 200 NONE BOOK c 7 73 200 a 1995 - 19 07 11 STORE THE FRICAN 当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普力推的"大而美"减税法案赶在他设定的最后期限之前被送到他桌上签署。该法案主要内容包括延长特朗普在其第一个任期 内于2017年通过的企业和个人减税措施，让小费和加班工资收入免于纳税等，其核心条款是降低企业税。而在对美国各行各业的影响方面，"大而美"法案的 长期辐射效应显然也不容小觑。该法案的最终版本为部分特定行业带来显著税赋优势，但同时也削减了其他部分行业的优惠政策。 新能源行业遭受重创 美国太阳能产业协会首席执行官霍普（Abigail Ross Hopper）则称，该法案将威胁到约4500亿美元的基础设施投资，可能将导致未来10年内约300吉瓦风能和 太阳能项目消失，增加消费者的电力价格，并对电网造成压力。 在电动汽车领域，法案决定自9月30日起终止7500美元的新车购置税收抵免政策，同时4000美元的二手电动汽车抵免也将不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Buy" rating for specific companies within the sector [4][5]. Core Insights - OPEC has announced an unexpected production increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, but the actual impact of this increase remains to be observed [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude oil futures closing at $68.3 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.78% [4][18]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads show varied trends [4][47]. - The polyester sector is facing profitability challenges, but there are expectations for recovery as supply and demand improve [4][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - OPEC's actual production increase has been lower than expected, with April's total production at approximately 31.1 million barrels per day, a decrease of 210,000 barrels from the previous month [4][8]. - The U.S. oil rig count decreased to 539, down 8 from the previous week and down 46 year-on-year [31][32]. - The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects prices to stabilize at mid-high levels due to OPEC's production cuts and shale oil cost support [4][18]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $14.01 per barrel, down $2.46 from the previous week [51]. - The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $22.37 per barrel, up $0.53 from the previous week, with a historical average of $24.86 per barrel [56]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses, despite current low levels [4][47]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has seen a decline, with the average price in East China at 4,971.4 yuan per ton, down 3.26% week-on-week [4][13]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in the polyester industry, with expectations for improved profitability as supply-demand dynamics shift positively [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as top refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][13]. - It also suggests that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with high capital expenditure expected to continue, particularly for offshore oil service companies [4][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, Saudi Aramco's July CP was released, showing an unexpected decline. Propane was at $575/ton (-$25), and butane was at $545/ton (-$25), leading to a significant reduction in import costs. Domestic LPG production decreased slightly, and international vessel arrivals dropped. Civilian demand remained seasonally weak, while the chemical industry's demand showed mixed trends. Next week, civilian demand is expected to stay weak, and the chemical industry's overall start - up rate may be boosted in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor OPEC+ production increases, downstream device operations, and import vessel arrivals [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overview - Saudi Aramco's July CP prices for propane and butane decreased by $25/ton. Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons, a slight reduction of 0.06%. Civilian gas production was 229,600 tons (-0.39%), and ether - after production was 163,300 tons (-0.55%). International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons (-18.82%), and arrivals are expected to increase next week. Civilian combustion demand was seasonally weak. PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.05% (+0.66%). Civilian gas prices declined slightly, while ether - after C4 prices rose significantly. Next week, civilian demand will remain weak, and the chemical industry's start - up rate may be boosted [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - The report presents data on LPG futures and spot prices, including LPG main contracts, APS propane main contracts, and AFE propane main contracts. It also shows the LPG forward curve, APS propane forward curve, and AFE propane forward curve. Additionally, it provides information on price differences such as PG08 - 09, PG08 - 05, APS propane main - continuous one, etc. Regional quotes, premiums, discounts, and freight rates are also covered, including historical data on US - to - Far - East freight, Middle - East - to - Far - East freight, etc. [7][11][12] 3.3 Supply - **US Exports**: The report shows historical data on US propane exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports to Europe, China, and Japan and South Korea [29][30][31]. - **Middle - East Exports**: It presents historical data on Middle - East LPG exports from 2019 - 2025, including exports from Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [35][36][37]. - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic LPG production totaled 538,000 tons (-0.06%). Propane supply in China was 545,400 tons, a 17.07% decrease. Domestic refinery production was 46,400 tons, a 7.91% increase. International vessel arrivals were 499,000 tons, mainly in Shandong. Inventory data for East China, South China, and Shandong are also provided [44][47][48]. 3.4 Demand - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate was 65.49% (-5.05%), and MTBE operating rate was 65.06% (+0.66%). The report also shows historical data on alkylation profit, domestic PDH operating rate, MTBE traditional profit, etc. [50][51]

"对等关税"的不确定性在下降，但是特朗普才是最大的变数。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人厉梦颖 随着7月9日关税豁免期限临近，美国加快了谈判进程。白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特近期表 示，美国与多个国家的贸易谈判已进入最后阶段，但相关协议的公布将推迟至《大美丽法案》通过后， 预计从7月4日起将陆续宣布一系列贸易协定。贝森特和卢特尼克也表示白宫预计在7月9日之前和多个 主要贸易伙伴敲定协议。 之前美国与其他国家的贸易谈判进展缓慢，主要原因在于美方诉求不够明确，阻碍了谈判进程。目前， 美国已逐步明确了对部分非美国家的具体要求，这些诉求能否得到满足将成为7月9日能否达成协议的 决定性因素。 一、美国在关税博弈中的诉求是什么？ 吸取历史教训，特朗普政府在本轮贸易谈判中运用了更具策略性的关税手段：一方面，通过维持10% 的基线关税来避免过度刺激贸易伙伴；另一方面，则将超过10%的附加关税作为谈判筹码，旨在迫使 盟友妥协，促使其扩大对美国商品的采购，同时又避免引发全面的报复性措施。 这种精准的关税调 控，既延续了关税作为威慑工具的效力，又有效规避了全面贸易对抗可能带来的风险。 美国扩大商品出口主要集中在 能源和农产品 领 ...

2025 年 07 月 05 日 深海科技——贯穿下半年的强主题机会 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 | 韦冀星（分析师） | 耿驰政（联系人） | 曹晋（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | weijixing@kysec.cn | gengchizheng@kysec.cn | caojin1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524030002 | 证书编号：S0790125050007 | 证书编号：S0790124080011 | 深海科技是"底线思维"下政策确定性的交集 "集中精力办好自己的事"和"底线思维"是本轮政策应对"外部冲击"的核 心思路，而"深海科技"正是"底线思维"下政策确定性的交集。 什么是"底线思维"？假设对美出口全面归零，对应的，我们需要有类似级别的对 冲，这对冲可以由三个维度提供：（1）国内扩大内需以及财政刺激等政策；（2）科 技创新下的全要素生产力提振、（3）对其他国家的出口和出海。而这三个维度其实 就是"办好自己的事"，它们也刚好就对应了接下来确定性最高的方向。而在今年政 府工作报告当中被首次提及的"深海科技"，正是这三大确定性的交集。在当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" Act, signed by President Trump, aims to extend tax cuts and includes various provisions affecting multiple industries, while also raising concerns about long-term fiscal implications and increasing federal deficits [1][2]. Winners - **Chip Manufacturers**: The Act increases tax credits for chip manufacturers building new factories in the U.S. from 25% to 35%, incentivizing domestic production [3]. - **Energy Companies**: The Act reopens oil and gas leasing auctions and lowers royalty rates, benefiting oil and gas producers [5]. - **Airlines**: A $12.5 billion fund is allocated for modernizing air traffic control systems, which is supported by airline executives [6]. - **Real Estate Developers**: The Act expands tax incentives for commercial real estate investors, including a 12% increase in low-income housing tax credits [7]. - **Defense Contractors**: The Pentagon plans to invest approximately $150 billion over five years in defense projects, benefiting companies like Lockheed Martin [8]. - **Private Student Loan Institutions**: Changes in federal student loan limits may drive more students to private lenders like SoFi [9]. - **Manufacturers**: The Act provides tax deductions for manufacturing costs for factories that begin operations after January 19, 2025 [10]. Losers - **Electric Vehicle Manufacturers**: The Act terminates subsidies for electric vehicle purchases, posing challenges for companies like Tesla and Ford [12]. - **Solar and Wind Energy Companies**: The expiration of specific tax credits for renewable energy projects may lead to a decline in orders and customer retention [13]. - **AI Companies**: The removal of a provision to pause state-level AI regulations may hinder innovation in the sector [13]. - **Certain Colleges**: A new tiered tax rate on investment income for private colleges may negatively impact prestigious institutions like Harvard and Yale [14]. - **Food Companies**: Cuts to the SNAP program could lead to decreased sales for major food companies reliant on SNAP beneficiaries [15]. - **Logistics Companies**: The elimination of tax exemptions for small packages may reduce demand for shipping services from companies like FedEx and UPS [16].

Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 8.362 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.036 billion yuan, maintaining a stable development amidst industry challenges [2] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities was 7.233 billion yuan, showing a growth trend year-on-year [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total assets of the company reached 35.422 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.48%, marking five consecutive years of growth [2] Group 2: Oil and Gas Production - In 2024, the company set a historical record in oil and gas production, with a total production of 22.681 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 1.88% year-on-year [3] - The reported crude oil production was 15.5503 million barrels, a decrease of 3.22% year-on-year, while natural gas production increased by 15.14% to 7.1307 million barrels of oil equivalent [3] Group 3: Audit Report Issues - The audit firm, Lixin, issued an audit report with a disclaimer of opinion for the company's 2024 financial report, citing insufficient evidence to form an opinion [4] - The company provided extensive documentation to Lixin, including 70 batches of 14,553 documents and facilitated 50 interviews, but still faced challenges in addressing the audit concerns [4][5] - The company highlighted that it had provided standard unqualified audit opinions from a top-ranked U.S. accounting firm for its U.S. subsidiary, indicating a disparity in audit opinions between U.S. and Chinese firms [5]

山东新潮能源股份有限公司 本人吴羡严格按照《中华人民共和国公司法》 （以下简称"《公司法》"）、 《上 市公司独立董事管理办法》等法律法规，以及《公司章程》等公司制度，作为山 东新潮能源股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）的独立董事，在 2024 年度任职 期间恪尽职守、勤勉尽责，充分发挥独立董事的作用，积极出席相关会议，积极 关注公司发展，认真审议董事会各项议案，对公司相关事项发表独立意见，切实 维护了公司和全体股东尤其是中小股东的合法利益。现将本人 2024 年度工作情 况汇报如下： 一、基本情况 （一）个人工作履历、专业背景及兼职情况 吴羡，女，1987 年出生，中国国籍，东北财经大学会计学本科，休斯顿大 学会计学硕士研究生，拥有美国永久居留权，美国注册会计师。曾任 Canady and Canady LLC 高级税务助理，BDO USA, LLP 高级税务助理、安永会计师事务所 高级税务助理-税务经理，先后参与多家上市公司季度和年度财务报表相关的税 务审计工作，现任 McDermott International, Inc.税务经理。2023 年 2 月 27 日至今， 任公司独立董事。 （二）是否存在影 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Xinchao Energy Co., Ltd. reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a net profit of approximately 2.04 billion RMB and a negative retained earnings balance, leading to a proposal of no cash dividends for shareholders [2][3][13]. Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the exploration, development, and sales of oil and gas, with all assets located in the Permian Basin of Texas, USA [4][5]. - The company has undergone structural adjustments to enhance its oil and gas asset holdings and ensure sustainable development [4][5]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.36 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.50% from the previous year [8][13]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.04 billion RMB, with a negative retained earnings balance of approximately -2.54 billion RMB at year-end [2][8]. - The company reported a basic earnings per share of 0.2993 RMB, down 21.59% from the previous year [10][13]. Industry Trends - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI closing at 72.44 USD per barrel at the end of 2024, a decrease of 1.40% from 2023 [3][4]. - The number of operational drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to an average of 599 in 2024, down 12.81% from 2023 [4][5]. - The U.S. upstream oil and gas industry has shown strong merger and acquisition activity, indicating a trend of consolidation among major energy companies [4][5].