1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils and fats overall closed higher. The bullish factors such as the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's imposition of temporary margins on Canadian rapeseed stimulated the market. However, the actual weak consumption and rumors of Australian rapeseed purchases led to profit - taking. The high - frequency data showed that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from August 1st to 15th increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month. The strong pattern of oils and fats is difficult to change in the short term [11]. - The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons. India may have started the restocking process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year, with sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will show a slight downward trend, the export willingness of palm oil will increase after the production rises, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected US biodiesel policy draft, the limited growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil production, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expected increase in oil production, the relatively high near - term production of palm oil in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, and the adjustment of demand by major importing countries [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: The three major oils and fats closed higher this week. The bullish factors included the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's measures against Canadian rapeseed. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil exports in August was good. The supply - demand of Southeast Asian palm oil was basically balanced, and the observable oil inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The price of domestic rapeseed oil was also pushed up by the tension in China - Canada trade relations [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the US will increase the industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. It is expected that Canada's rapeseed production will increase by 100,000 tons to 19.25 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India may start the restocking process [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly, the export willingness of palm oil will increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Fundamentally, multiple factors support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, the current high valuation restricts the upside space [11][12][13]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly. No relevant content is provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - Malaysian palm oil 2510, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil 10, and the basis of 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [18][20][23][26] 3.3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, and the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [29][31][32][33] - **Palm Production Area Weather**: The report provides charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm production areas, as well as charts related to the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][36] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The report presents the charts of the total domestic inventory of the three major oils and fats and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils [42] - **Inventory of Different Oils**: It shows the import profit, commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed in coastal areas, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysian and Indonesian producing areas [44][46][48][49] 3.5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report presents the charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [53] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: It shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese imported rapeseed [56] 3.6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Transaction**: The report presents the charts of the cumulative transaction volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [59] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It shows the charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [61]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the trade friction between China and Canada regarding rapeseed, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed has significantly increased. Some traders are seeking to import rapeseed from Australia, but the market expects the impact to be limited, causing the price of oils to rise and then fall [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,368.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan or 0.59% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.00 yuan or 0.65% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,840.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 224.00 yuan or 2.23% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,310.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160.00 yuan or 1.69%, with a spot basis of P01 + -58.00, a decrease of 104.00 yuan [1] - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,630.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan/ton or 0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 110.00, an increase of 6.00 yuan [1] - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,950.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220.00 yuan or 2.16%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 110.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Import Prices - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 454 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 497 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 549 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 539 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,146 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,140 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Import Premiums - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 210 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium of US West Coast soybeans (September shipment) was 184 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium of Brazilian ports (October shipment) was 313 cents/bushel, a decrease of 12 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] Brazilian Soybean Forecast - It is estimated that the soybean production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season will reach 169.657 million tons, an increase of 21.9207 million tons or 14.8% year - on - year, and an increase of 169,100 tons or 0.1% month - on - month [2] - The sown area of soybeans in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach 47.6372 million hectares, an increase of 1.4826 million hectares or 3.2% year - on - year, and an increase of 22,300 hectares month - on - month [2] - The soybean yield per unit area in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 3.56 tons/hectare, an increase of 360.5 kg/hectare or 11.3% year - on - year, and an increase of 1.9 kg/hectare or 0.1% month - on - month [2]

8月11日马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）公布了7月棕榈油供需报告。整体来看，7月马来西亚棕榈油供应 端增量大于需求增量，符合累库趋势，但实际库存却大幅低于市场预期，使得此次报告影响整体偏多。 在此背景下，考虑到8月棕榈油市场利多因素频出，且棕榈油市场需求存在回暖预期，预计8月棕榈油现 货价格料将延续涨势。 累库低于预期 7月MPOB报告影响多 马来西亚棕榈油局发布的7月棕榈油供需数据显示，7月马来西亚棕榈油产量为181.24万吨，环比增加 7.09%；出口量为130.91万吨，环比增3.82%；进口量为6.10万吨，环比降12.82%；7月末马棕库存增至 211.33万吨，环比增加4.02%。与此前市场预估数据相比，产量低于预期，出口略高于预期，库存大幅 低于预期，此次报告影响偏多，提振当日马棕期价宽幅收高。 分析来看，7月马棕产量低于预期，暗示产地供应压力不大，且产区呈"西增东减"差异化表现。据此前 机构预估，7月马棕产量将增至183万吨，但实际产量仅为181.24万吨，略低于市场预期，对价格存在支 撑。7月棕榈油延续季节性增产周期，其中西马天气条件改善，促进鲜果串生长。而东马局部地区受天 气影响，单产出现小 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - For palm oil, the supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to go long at low prices [1]. - For soybean oil, the U.S. soybeans are strong, and soybean oil will fluctuate at a high level [1]. Detailed Summaries from Different Sections 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,424 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase, (night session) 9,486 yuan/ton with a 0.66% increase; trading volume was 384,052 lots, a decrease of 58,978 lots, and open interest was 226,780 lots, a decrease of 43,883 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,592 yuan/ton with a 1.23% increase, (night session) 8,554 yuan/ton with a -0.44% change; trading volume was 183,673 lots, an increase of 43,470 lots, and open interest was 261,043 lots, a decrease of 45,207 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 10,069 yuan/ton with a 2.72% increase, (night session) 9,976 yuan/ton with a -0.92% change; trading volume was 298,318 lots, an increase of 27,033 lots, and open interest was 90,567 lots, a decrease of 26,912 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,435 ringgit/ton with a 0.80% increase, (night session) 4,436 ringgit/ton with a 0.02% increase [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 53.40 cents/pound with a 0.49% increase [1]. - **Spot Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 9,380 yuan/ton, a price increase of 120 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 8,820 yuan/ton, a price increase of 170 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price was 10,190 yuan/ton, a price increase of 500 yuan/ton [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,090 dollars/ton, a price increase of 10 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 44 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 228 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 121 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread was 574 yuan/ton, compared to 448 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread was - 914 yuan/ton, compared to - 886 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 66 yuan/ton, compared to - 34 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan/ton, compared to 12 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 5 yuan/ton, compared to - 8 yuan/ton two days ago [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia has raised its reference price for crude palm oil in September, and the export tax has been increased to 10%. The September reference price is 4053.43 ringgit/ton (962.12 dollars/ton), compared to 3864.12 ringgit/ton in August with a 9% export tax [2][3]. - Indonesia has saved at least 3.68 billion dollars in foreign exchange this year by using palm - oil - based biodiesel. The palm oil blending ratio in its biodiesel is 40% (B40 biofuel), and the policy took effect at the beginning of this year. As of June, about 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel had been distributed, achieving half of the 2025 target of 13.5 million kiloliters [3]. - As of the week ending August 6, Argentine farmers sold 868,100 tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 28.8286 million tons. The local oil mills purchased 679,500 tons, and the export industry purchased 188,600 tons. They also sold 52,700 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 593,100 tons. The total soybean sales for all years in that week were 961,800 tons, and the cumulative sales reached 70.2008 million tons. The cumulative export sales registration of 2024/25 soybeans was 8.092 million tons, and that of 2025/26 soybeans was 0 tons [4]. - Ukraine's 2025 rapeseed production is expected to drop to 2.7 - 2.8 million tons, down from 3.7 million tons in 2024. The extreme drought in southern and central - eastern Ukraine has cut the sunflower seed production forecast to no more than 14 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 16 million tons [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the prices of the three major oils fluctuated and rose. The market is worried that the ruling on Canadian rapeseed will increase the cost of imported rapeseed, pushing up oil prices. Coupled with the positive expectations of the palm oil B50 plan, the overall oil market is oscillating strongly [1][3] - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to increase significantly. India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are expected to soar, while palm oil and sunflower oil imports are expected to decline. China's edible vegetable oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are estimated to be adjusted, and the supply - demand forecast for the 2025/26 fiscal year remains unchanged. Favorable rainfall in peanut - producing areas is beneficial for peanut production [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9362.00 yuan/ton, a change of +144 yuan or +1.56%; the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8476.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.43%; the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9802.00 yuan/ton, a change of +214.00 yuan or +2.23% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 9320.00 yuan/ton, a change of +320.00 yuan or +3.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + - 42.00, a change of +176.00 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8570.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan/ton or +0.23%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 94.00, a change of - 16.00 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9910.00 yuan/ton, a change of +210.00 yuan or +2.16%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 108.00, a change of - 4.00 yuan [1] Market News - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 10 is expected to be 339,143 tons, a 65.25% increase from the same period last month [2] - China has made a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigations of imported rapeseed from Canada and will implement temporary anti - dumping measures in the form of deposits starting from August 14, 2025 [2] - India's soybean oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year are expected to soar 60% to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [2] - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, China's edible vegetable oil imports are estimated to be 7.56 million tons, a decrease of 170,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. Palm oil imports are reduced by 400,000 tons, soybean oil imports by 50,000 tons, and rapeseed oil and other vegetable oil imports are increased by 100,000 tons and 180,000 tons respectively [2] - The supply - demand forecast for China's edible vegetable oil in the 2025/26 fiscal year remains unchanged from the previous month [2] - Favorable rainfall in peanut - producing areas such as Henan, Hebei, and Shandong is beneficial for peanut production [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The palm oil market has certain expectations for the long - term B50 plan, and the good export data from Malaysia provide some support for palm oil. However, the market is waiting for further guidance from the upcoming USDA monthly supply - demand report [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9218.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 238 yuan or 2.65% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 52.00 yuan or 0.62% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9588.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 14.00 yuan or 0.15% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9000.00 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.55%, and the spot basis was P09 + - 218.00, with a daily decrease of 288.00 yuan - In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8550.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 110.00, with a daily decrease of 42.00 yuan - In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9700.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.21%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 112.00, with a daily increase of 6.00 yuan [1] Market News - From August 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase compared to the same period last month - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 443 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 437 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 481 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 212 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (September shipment) was 186 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (October shipment) was 325 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1149 dollars/ton, an increase of 8 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1130 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F quote of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1035 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1015 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (October shipment) was 562 dollars/ton, an increase of 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (December shipment) was 552 dollars/ton, an increase of 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing mixed performance, with canola oil futures showing a notable increase while the overall supply remains stable and the market is influenced by various factors including international relations and domestic consumption policies [1] Market Performance - On August 12, canola oil futures opened at 9609.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 9817.00 CNY and a low of 9596.00 CNY, with an increase of approximately 2.36% [1] - The average price of imported three-grade canola oil was reported at 9813 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.51% increase from the previous day [1] Inventory and Supply - As of August 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.39 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 30,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 110,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 230,000 tons [1] - Canola oil inventory stood at 660,000 tons, remaining stable week-on-week, decreasing by 30,000 tons month-on-month, and increasing by 170,000 tons year-on-year [1] Import Prices - On August 11, the C&F price for imported canola oil from Canada was reported at 1035 USD/ton for September shipment and 1015 USD/ton for November shipment, both remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Market Outlook - According to Da Yue Futures, oilseed prices are expected to stabilize due to a relaxed domestic fundamental environment and stable oilseed supply, with a forecast for higher South American production in the 2024/25 USDA report [1] - Ruida Futures noted that the current season is a low-demand period for oilseeds, with a relatively loose supply of vegetable oils and ongoing high inventory pressure for canola oil, which may continue to restrain market prices [1] - The market is currently balancing between short-term supply looseness and uncertainties regarding future shipments, with canola oil prices showing strength due to palm oil price increases [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - International: There is a strong expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest. Trump's call for China to quadruple soybean orders led to a rise in CBOT soybean prices. MPOB's July report showed that Malaysia's palm - oil inventory accumulation was less than expected. High - frequency data indicated strong palm - oil exports from Malaysia from August 1 - 10, and Indonesia's reaffirmation of the B50 plan starting in 2026 caused a significant afternoon rally in Malaysian palm - oil futures [6][7]. - Domestic: Soybean oil inventory continued to rise. The increase in July's soybean imports and recent export growth supported prices. Rising South American soybean premiums and trade - risk premiums made soybean oil relatively strong. Palm - oil inventory shifted from increase to decrease, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, with futures prices following external costs. Rapeseed oil inventory continued to decline. The drop in Canadian rapeseed prices and uncertainties in China - Canada trade policies supported rapeseed oil prices, keeping it in a range - bound oscillation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture will release its August supply - demand report at 12:00 pm EDT on August 12 (early Wednesday morning Beijing time). Analysts expect the 2025/26 US soybean production to be 4.365 billion bushels, higher than last month's government forecast [2]. - MPOB data showed that Malaysia's July palm - oil exports were 1,309,059 tons (up 3.82% month - on - month), imports were 61,039 tons (down 12.82% month - on - month), production was 1,812,417 tons (up 7.09% month - on - month), and inventory was 2,113,278 tons (up 4.02% month - on - month) [2]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm - oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [2]. - The National Grain and Oil Information Center stated that the domestic soybean - crushing volume slightly decreased last week. As of August 8, it was 2.18 million tons, down 80,000 tons week - on - week, 120,000 tons month - on - month, but up 210,000 tons year - on - year. It is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [3]. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided in the given content. Views and Strategies - International: Strong US soybean harvest expectations, Trump's call on China for soybean orders, less - than - expected Malaysian palm - oil inventory accumulation, strong Malaysian palm - oil exports in early August, and Indonesia's B50 plan influenced international oil - related futures prices [6][7]. - Domestic: Different supply - demand situations and external factors affected the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the domestic market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight increase observed on August 11, 2023, indicating a potential upward trend in the market [1] Market Overview - On August 11, 2023, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 52.58 cents per pound and are currently at 52.60 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.32% increase. The intraday high reached 52.62 cents per pound, while the low was 52.32 cents per pound [1] - On August 8, 2023, the opening price for soybean oil was 53.55 cents per pound, with a high of 53.65 cents, a low of 52.29 cents, and a closing price of 52.51 cents, marking a decrease of 1.70% [1] Price Information - As of August 8, 2023, the C&F price for Argentine soybean oil for September shipment is stable at $1,141 per ton, while the November shipment price is also stable at $1,120 per ton compared to the previous trading day [1] Trading Volume and Inventory - On August 8, 2023, the national first-class soybean oil trading volume reached 39,900 tons, which is an increase of 232.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean oil futures warehouse receipts stood at 20,370 lots on August 8, 2023, reflecting an increase of 5,000 lots from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term trend of domestic oils is expected to diverge, with soybean oil anticipated to remain strong due to various factors including weather conditions and international policies [1] Group 1: Weather Impact on Soybean Growth - Weather forecasts indicate below-average rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains over the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth [1] Group 2: International Policies and Demand - The U.S. biodiesel policy is expected to positively influence U.S. soybean oil demand, while Brazil has raised its biodiesel blending ratio and Indonesia's B40 implementation is progressing well, both of which are favorable for domestic oils [1] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - MPOA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production is projected to increase by 9.01% for July, with an estimated inventory of 2.25 million tons, a 10.8% increase from June, and production of 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June [1] - Export volume for palm oil is expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June, but high-frequency data suggests an increase in production and a decrease in exports, raising concerns about potential inventory accumulation [1] Group 4: Domestic Oil Inventory and Trade Relations - Domestic canola oil inventory has slightly decreased but remains at historically high levels, and improved trade relations between China and Australia may lead to increased canola seed imports from Australia [1] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - Overall, due to the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil and favorable international biodiesel policies, the domestic oil market is likely to experience a divergence in short-term trends, with soybean oil expected to perform strongly while canola and palm oil may experience fluctuations [1]