Core Viewpoint - The 20th anniversary of Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean oil futures marks its evolution into a cornerstone of China's oilseed market, reflecting the country's economic growth and the maturation of its futures market, while also enhancing risk management and price discovery functions [1] Group 1: Development and Achievements - Since its launch in 2006, soybean oil futures have grown significantly, with average daily trading volume increasing from 43,100 contracts to 445,000 contracts by 2025, and average open interest rising from 24,200 contracts to 844,400 contracts [4] - By the end of 2025, there are 33 delivery warehouses for soybean oil futures across seven provinces, ensuring ample delivery capacity and supporting industry participation in the futures market [4] - Over 90% of large and medium-sized soybean crushing enterprises in China utilize soybean oil futures for hedging, with the futures price becoming a key pricing benchmark for domestic soybean oil trade [4] Group 2: Market Adaptation and Risk Management - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented various measures to ensure soybean oil futures remain closely aligned with the physical market, including expanding delivery regions and optimizing delivery standards based on raw material quality changes [2][3] - The introduction of dynamic premium and discount systems and the establishment of delivery warehouses in key production areas have enhanced the flexibility and efficiency of the delivery process [2][3] - Companies like Jianghai Grain and Oil Group have effectively utilized futures for risk management, demonstrating the integration of futures into their operational strategies to stabilize profits and manage price volatility [8][9] Group 3: Industry Transformation and Global Impact - The soybean oil industry has transitioned from reliance on foreign oil to a competitive landscape dominated by state-owned, private, and foreign enterprises, driven by the need for price risk management [5][6] - By 2025, China is projected to produce approximately 18.71 million tons of soybean oil, accounting for about 30% of global production and consumption, establishing itself as the largest producer and consumer [6] - The opening of the soybean oil futures market to foreign investors and the introduction of related contracts in international markets have enhanced China's pricing influence in global oilseed trade [14][15] Group 4: Future Directions and Strategic Importance - The development of soybean oil futures serves as a model for the broader Chinese futures market, emphasizing the importance of being rooted in the physical industry and driven by genuine risk management needs [16][17] - The collaborative efforts of regulatory bodies, exchanges, and industry participants have been crucial in nurturing a mature market that effectively serves the entire supply chain [17] - As the market evolves, companies are encouraged to enhance their risk management capabilities and leverage futures and options to navigate increasing market complexities and competition [18]

Core Insights - The development of soybean oil futures over the past 20 years has transformed it into a cornerstone of China's oilseed market, providing essential risk management and price discovery functions [1][4][19] - The futures market has evolved alongside China's economic growth and structural adjustments, reflecting a shift from exploration to maturity in the domestic futures market [1][19] Market Capacity - Since its launch, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil futures has increased from 43,100 contracts in 2006 to 445,000 contracts in 2025, while the average open interest has risen from 24,200 contracts to 844,400 contracts [4] - By the end of 2025, there will be 33 delivery warehouses for soybean oil futures, ensuring broad coverage and sufficient delivery capacity across various regions [4] Industry Participation - Over 90% of large and medium-sized soybean crushing enterprises in China utilize soybean oil futures for hedging, with more than 90% of sales using a pricing model based on the futures price plus a premium or discount [4] - By the end of 2025, the proportion of industry clients holding positions in soybean oil futures is expected to reach 52% [4] Industry Transformation - The soybean crushing industry has seen rapid growth, with production capacity exceeding 180 million tons, making China the largest producer and consumer of soybean oil globally [7] - The market has shifted from reliance on foreign oil to a more balanced structure among state-owned, private, and foreign enterprises since 2018 [6][7] Risk Management - Soybean oil futures have become a critical tool for enterprises to manage price risks, with significant price fluctuations observed in recent years [8] - Companies like Jianghai Grain and Oil Group have successfully integrated futures into their operations, enhancing their risk management capabilities and overall business performance [9][10] Pricing Mechanism - The introduction of basis trading has redefined pricing and cooperation models in the industry, moving from fixed pricing to a more flexible model based on futures prices plus basis [11][12] - The maturity of the soybean oil futures market has provided a reliable price benchmark, enhancing the efficiency and risk management capabilities of the entire industry [12][19] Internationalization - The soybean oil futures market has opened up to foreign investors, enhancing its international pricing influence and allowing for better risk management across markets [14][15][16] - The integration of domestic prices with international markets has improved the responsiveness of Chinese prices to global supply and demand changes [15][16] Lessons Learned - The success of soybean oil futures illustrates the importance of being rooted in the underlying industry and addressing real risk management needs [17][18] - A collaborative approach among regulatory bodies, exchanges, and industry participants has been crucial for the development of a mature futures market [17][18]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 关注下周一的M P O B报告 油脂长期或震荡偏强 20260111 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：萧勇辉 从业资格号：F03091536 交易咨询号：Z0019917 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 ◆ 长期来看，在印尼将执行B50的预期下，预计油脂长期或震荡偏强为主。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 豆油方面，南美巴西主产区近期都有不错的降雨，有利已播大豆的生长；阿根廷核心产区未来两周降雨较少 或一般， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the domestic three major oils are weak due to high production in palm oil - producing areas, sluggish exports, and high domestic inventories. However, in the long - term, with Indonesia's measures such as confiscating illegal plantations and implementing the B50 plan, and the expected significant increase in the total consumption of bio - diesel oils in the US in 2026, the outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: This week, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. As of Friday, the May contract of soybean oil closed at 7,994 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton or 1.68% from the previous week; the May contract of palm oil closed at 8,682 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan/ton or 1.14%; the May contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,042 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.5%. In terms of spreads, the May - September contract spread of soybean oil was 156 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was 112 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 21 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton. The basis of the May contract of soybean oil was 526 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton; that of palm oil was - 2 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; that of rapeseed oil was 758 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Information**: Indonesia's Energy Ministry may raise the palm oil export tax due to financial constraints. Last year, Indonesia consumed 14.2 million liters of palm - based biodiesel, a 7.6% increase from the previous year. The Energy Ministry has allocated 15.65 million liters of palm - based biodiesel for this year's blending task and plans to increase the blending ratio to 50% in the second half of the year. The Indonesian President said that Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year. The MPOB will release the December monthly supply - demand report next Monday. As of the week ending January 2, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 200,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic, and oil prices may be near the bottom [11]. - **Fundamentals Assessment**: The basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil is high, while that of palm oil is low. The biodiesel spread is neutral considering inventory, and the import profit is low. Palm oil in the producing areas still has high inventory in the first quarter. Global sunflower seed production is expected to decrease by 400,000 tons, and rapeseed production will increase by 9 million tons. Global palm oil inventory is still at a low level. Overall, oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spreads between different contracts, etc., including the basis of the May contract of palm oil, the basis of Malaysian palm oil, the basis of the May contract of soybean oil, the basis of the May contract of rapeseed oil, the spread between the May contracts of soybean oil and palm oil, the May - September contract spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [19][20][23][25][27]. 3. Supply Side - The report shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian palm oil, the production and export of Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, reflecting the supply - side situation of the oils [31][33][34][35]. 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The report shows the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and the inventory of imported vegetable oils in India through charts [39]. - **Palm Oil**: It presents the near - month import profit of palm oil, the commercial inventory of palm oil, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [41][48]. - **Soybean Oil**: It shows the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants [43]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It shows the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil [45]. 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil**: It shows the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [52]. - **Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed**: It shows the import price of rapeseed oil for near - month shipments and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed [55]. 6. Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: It shows the cumulative transactions of palm oil and the annual cumulative transactions of soybean oil [60]. - **Biodiesel Profit**: It shows the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [63].

2025年11月底，广东新沙港靠岸了一艘特殊的货轮。 文|有风 编辑|有风 原计划2025年12月25日开榨，眼瞅着就泡汤了。 沿海油厂更惨，进口油菜籽库存一直是"0"，开工率连续9周挂"0"。 可现实给了市场一记闷棍。 这批澳籽到港后，检验周期比预想的长得多。 船上装的是澳大利亚油菜籽，这可是中澳之间断了4年的贸易重新启动的标志。 当时市场都觉得，这下油菜籽供应该跟上了，油厂开榨后菜油产量会增加，价格说不定能稳一稳。 这供应端一掉链子，进口菜籽油库存跟着下滑，价格反倒止跌反弹了。 春节就在眼前，这"供给偏紧+备货窗口"的组合，能不能让菜油期货走出一波行情，成了最近大家热议 的话题。 现货市场先"喊渴"：预期挺美，现实骨感 一开始听说澳籽恢复进口，不少人都松了口气。 毕竟之前国内油菜籽供应挺紧张，尤其加拿大那边还因为反倾销调查，进口量被卡得厉害。 本以为澳籽到港能补补缺口，结果检验流程一拉长，整个节奏全乱了。 数据不会骗人。 2025年12月26日，进口菜籽油库存量跌到31.69万吨，不管跟去年比还是跟上个月比，都降了不少。 现货价格也跟着动，12月进口三级菜籽油均价到了9851元/吨。 业内估计，2026年 ...

Group 1 - Indonesia may increase palm oil export tax due to funding constraints to support its biodiesel program [1] - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to its highest level in nearly seven years, reaching 2.97 million tons, a 4.7% increase from November [1] - As of January 9, palm oil spot price was reported at 8,710 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from the previous day, with a weekly increase of 43.33 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The domestic spot market for palm oil is experiencing weak basis transactions and general terminal demand [3] - There is a fundamental pressure from high inventory and weak exports, while international crude oil remains strong, leading to a mixed outlook for palm oil prices [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that by the end of 2025, domestic palm oil prices are expected to follow a weak trend due to supply pressures, while soybean oil prices will experience limited declines supported by fundamental factors, leading to a narrowing of the soybean-palm oil price spread [2][10] - As of January 6, 2026, the average price of first-grade soybean oil in the East China market is 8399 yuan/ton, and the price of 24-degree palm oil is 8579 yuan/ton, resulting in a soybean-palm oil price spread of -180 yuan/ton, which has narrowed by 170 yuan/ton compared to the same period last month [11] Group 2 - The palm oil market is under pressure due to a mismatch between expected and actual supply and demand data, with Malaysia's palm oil production in November at 1.9355 million tons, down 5.30% month-on-month, and exports decreasing by 28.13% [4][13] - The increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory to 2.8354 million tons, a 13.04% rise, indicates a supply surplus, further weakening the palm oil market outlook [4][13] Group 3 - The soybean oil market is experiencing a seasonal reduction in raw soybean supply, leading to a slight decrease in crushing rates and a downward trend in soybean oil inventory, although the overall decline in inventory is slow due to previous increases in soybean purchases [5][14] - The tightening supply-demand balance for soybean oil is expected to provide stronger support for prices, with forecasts indicating that the price range for first-grade soybean oil in January will be between 8300 and 8600 yuan/ton [8][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Wait for the negative factors to be fully priced in and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [1] - Soybean oil: The unilateral price will mainly rebound within a range, and pay attention to the spread opportunities between different contract months [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,562 yuan/ton (up 0.73% during the day) and 8,594 yuan/ton (up 0.37% at night); Soybean oil主力 closed at 7,958 yuan/ton (up 0.58% during the day) and 7,974 yuan/ton (up 0.20% at night); Rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,095 yuan/ton (down 0.38% during the day) and 9,028 yuan/ton (down 0.74% at night); Malaysian palm主力 closed at 4,035 ringgit/ton (up 1.08% during the day) and 4,050 ringgit/ton (up 0.42% at night); CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 49.27 cents/pound (down 0.26%) [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 453,932 lots (an increase of 39,340) and an open interest of 393,568 lots (an increase of 2,512); Soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 297,201 lots (an increase of 34,187) and an open interest of 643,998 lots (an increase of 22,151); Rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 289,824 lots (an increase of 72,757) and an open interest of 228,469 lots (an increase of 8,124) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 8,570 yuan/ton (with no price change); First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton (with no price change); Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,015 US dollars/ton (with no price change) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton; The basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 512 yuan/ton; The basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 955 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 533 yuan/ton; The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 604 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 110 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 150 yuan/ton; The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 14 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia may confiscate 4 - 5 million hectares of oil palm plantations this year [2] - Malaysia's palm oil production in December 2024 was estimated to decrease by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons, with a 7.59% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, 0.6% in Sabah, and 2.41% in Sarawak [3][4] - Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, 2.1% higher than the previous estimate, with a range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons [4] - As of December 31, 2025, the total vegetable oil inventory in major ports in India was 914,310 tons, a decrease of 37,363 tons (3.93%) from December 15; The CPO inventory was 435,412 tons, a decrease of 47,606 tons (9.86%) from the previous period [4] - Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, with a stable yield increase, and the estimated range is 3.32 - 4.32 million tons. In November, the production dropped to 267,000 tons, a 15.1% decrease from the previous month, and the cumulative production from January to November was 3.62 million tons, a 15.3% year - on - year increase [4] - Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to remain at 51.2 million tons. Bad weather continues to affect field operations, and the EU weather model predicts complex weather conditions in the next 15 days [5] - The market expects the US soybean production report to maintain the production estimate of 4.253 billion bushels and the yield of 53.0 bushels/acre, and the global soybean production may decrease by 1.1% year - on - year [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [6]

东莞一企业通过暗管偷排生产废水被举报查处 中新网东莞1月7日电 (记者 许青青)东莞市生态环境局6日晚在其官方微信通报，根据群众投诉举报，广 东省生态环境厅指导东莞市生态环境局组建检查组，对锦坤实业有限公司进行现场检查。经过连续多日 调查，该企业通过暗管偷排生产废水被查处。 挖出的厂区外波纹管(左)和厂区内部波纹管(右)。东莞市生态环境局官微图 该企业主要从事对大豆压榨食用油后产生的副产品(皂脚)进行加工、销售，生产过程产生酸化油废水。 该企业具备环评审批手续，每日产生废水130立方米。正常情况下，经厂内污水处理设施处理后，经公 共污水管网送往立沙岛工业污水处理厂处理。怀疑锦坤公司为节省处理成本，偷排生产废水。 东莞市生态环境局表示，将对此案件继续深入调查，查明企业违法事实，全面固定证据，依法对企业违 法行为进行严肃查处。(完) 现场勘察。东莞市生态环境局官微图 通报称，2025年12月下旬，广东省生态环境厅接到群众投诉，反映位于沙田镇立沙岛的锦坤实业有限公 司存在偷排生产废水的嫌疑。 从12月30日起，省厅、市局、分局三级生态环境部门组建的联合检查组连续数日进行排查。 在涉嫌偷排区域进行挖掘查找暗管。东莞市 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of oils and fats are stable, and the market is in a continuous volatile state [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +12 yuan and a change rate of +0.14% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,912 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +56 yuan and a change rate of +0.71% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,130 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +86 yuan and a change rate of +0.95% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,500 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +10 yuan and a change rate of +0.12%. The spot basis was P05 + 0, with a day-on-day change of -2 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,310 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +40 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.48%. The spot basis was Y05 + 398, with a day-on-day change of -16 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,880 yuan/ton, with a day-on-day change of +100 yuan and a change rate of +1.02%. The spot basis was OI05 + 750, with a day-on-day change of +14 yuan [1] Market News - From January 1 - 5, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 34.7% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.04% month-on-month, and the output decreased by 34.48% month-on-month - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 512 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 520 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,141 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,082 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was 1,090 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,070 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 475 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 471 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 447 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotation: the Mexican Gulf (February shipment) was 232 cents/bushel, a decrease of 1 cent/bushel compared with the previous trading day; the US West Coast (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel compared with the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (February shipment) was 155 cents/bushel, an increase of 10 cents/bushel compared with the previous trading day [2] Soybean Oil Analysis - The price of the three major oils fluctuated. With sufficient soybean arrivals, the soybean crushing operating rate of oil mills was relatively high in December, the supply of soybean oil was abundant, and the inventory was at a high level - The market is currently trading on the possibility of an extended customs clearance time for soybean arrivals. At the end of December, the soybean complex rebounded, and the 1 - 3 spread continued the positive spread logic - There may be 2 additional shipments of soybean oil exports in March, which will help reduce domestic soybean oil inventory - Recently, the tight提货 in the East China region has driven a slight increase in the spot basis, while other regions are normal. It is expected that the soybean oil basis will remain strong in the near future [3]