南华期货油脂产业周报 ——上行驱动不足，油脂维持偏弱震荡 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月25日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期油脂市场交易的重点来自于全球油脂的供需平衡问题，核心驱动主要在外盘市场，当前油脂的核心 矛盾主要为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力能否被增长的需求所消化。11月高频数据显示马棕继续增产，产地供应压力未减，减 产季的到来似乎也已经遥遥无期。而印尼端B50计划不确定性仍存，需进一步政策指引，产地整体来看报价上 行动力不足。 2、美国生物柴油政策依然不明朗，EPA原定11月公布的最终确定美国生物燃料义务量目前延期，且当前美国 已经解散清洁能源部门，或更偏向于化石燃料的使用，政策提振作用存疑。中美贸易和谈进度目前较乐观提 振美豆，支撑豆油相对偏强，但美豆恢复购买后国内豆油供应压力或增加，成本支撑逻辑走完后或转化为供 应压力现实，且美豆出口好转，美国政府对生物燃料政策的力度有减弱可能，等待最终结果；但中加和谈目 前并不像中美和谈乐观，菜系后市供 ...

油脂周报：油脂缺乏利多驱动，盘面整体震荡下跌 研究员：张盼盼 期货从业证号：F03119783 投资咨询证号：Z0022908 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. SPPOMA预计11月1-20日马棕产量环比增加10%，ITS预计11月1-20日马棕出口环比减少20%。 2.美国能源部计划撤销清洁能源示范办公室和能源效率与可再生能源办公室，并新增碳氢化合物和地热能源办 公室以及聚变能源办公室。 目录 3.本周受生柴政策以及高频数据利空等因素影响，油脂震荡偏弱运行。目前马棕逐渐进入减产季，马棕也将逐 渐去库，但预计整体仍处偏高水平，去库速度偏慢，印尼库存持续处于偏低水平，产地报价稳中有增，短期棕 榈油缺乏持续性利多，反弹高度可能有限。目前豆油没有一个比较突出的核心矛盾点，豆油价格更多跟随油脂 整体走势波动，上涨较为乏力，但也更为抗跌。短期国内菜籽供应不足，菜油进口量也较为有限，国内菜油预 计仍是继续去库，对菜油价格仍存在一定支撑。 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国际市场—马棕11月存增产预期，12月出口税率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's decision to delay the import biofuel subsidy reduction plan from 2026 to potentially 2027 or 2028 has caused significant market reactions, particularly affecting soybean farmers and the biofuel industry [1][3][34] Policy Reversal Impact - The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) initially planned to halve the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits for imported biofuels starting January 2026, which would have reduced the competitive advantage of imported waste cooking oil, pushing refineries to buy more domestic soybean and canola oil [5][9] - The sudden policy change is primarily driven by concerns over rising fuel prices, as the biofuel industry heavily relies on imported raw materials [7][9] - The postponement of the subsidy reduction has led to a 2% drop in Chicago soybean oil futures, reflecting immediate market reactions [13][16] Market Reactions - The delay in policy implementation is expected to result in a reassessment of planting strategies among soybean farmers, as the attractiveness of soybeans compared to corn and cotton diminishes without policy support [15][22] - The U.S. biodiesel industry will continue to depend on imported waste oils and animal fats, easing competitive pressures on suppliers from the EU and Southeast Asia [16][22] Long-term Trends - The EPA's long-term goal remains to reduce import dependency and enhance domestic biofuel competitiveness, aligning with the "America First" energy policy [23][28] - Future biodiesel blending quotas are likely to increase, indicating a growing demand for biofuels despite the current policy delay [26][31] - The existing biodiesel production capacity significantly exceeds the proposed quotas, suggesting that large refineries may control output to stabilize RIN prices [31][33] Strategic Considerations - Investors should recognize that policy variables are critical in the oilseed market, often more influential than weather or inventory levels [28][30] - The interplay between energy transition, inflation pressures, and political maneuvering will continue to shape the market landscape for U.S. soybean farmers and related industries [34][36]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, the prices of vegetable oil futures rose first and then fell. The uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the decrease in palm - oil exports in Malaysia from November so far led to the decline of the international vegetable oil market, which in turn drove the overall decline of domestic vegetable oil futures prices. - For soybean oil, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy dampens market confidence. Domestic oil mills maintain a high operating rate, with sufficient supply, and the inventory is expected to remain high. - For rapeseed oil, the upcoming arrival of Australian rapeseeds weakens the market's concern about future supply. - For palm oil, both the international and domestic markets are in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the fundamentals lack positive support. It is expected that vegetable oil prices will be weak in the near future. [9][31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - This week, the soybean oil Y2601 contract fell 0.80% to close at 8,190 yuan/ton, the palm oil P2601 contract fell 1.09% to close at 8,550 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil OI2601 contract fell 1.08% to close at 9,816 yuan/ton. [5][30] 3.2 Important Information - **Palm Oil**: According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from November 1 - 20 were 828,680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month. According to shipping survey agency SGS, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from November 1 - 20 are expected to be 471,222 tons, a 40.6% decrease from the same period last month. Malaysia's palm oil fell 1.38%. [7][30] - **Soybean Oil**: The International Grains Council lowered the global soybean production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 1.6 million tons to 426.4 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous year, but still much higher than the recent average. Argentina's soybean production forecast was lowered to 47.8 million tons, China's to 20.9 million tons, and India's to 13.3 million tons. US soybeans rose 0.36% this week. [7][30] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [13] 3.4 Other Data - As of November 19, 2025, the national soybean - oil inventory increased by 0.30 million tons to 1.373 million tons, and the national commercial palm - oil inventory increased by 6.60 million tons to 0.689 million tons. [17] - As of November 20, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,170,220 tons. [19] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 104 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [22] - As of November 21, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 344 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [24]

近一年中国豆油进口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国豆油行业市场供需态势及发展前景研判报告》 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国豆油进口数量为2万吨，同比增长38.2%，进口金额为0.24亿美 元，同比增长60%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The high - yield of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. The current situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply in the short - term may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield does not persist, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains high - yield, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view the market with an oscillatory perspective and turn to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: This week, the three major oils showed weak trends. Palm oil was still underweighted by foreign investors, and long positions in other oils also decreased. High - frequency data from palm oil producing areas were average. From November 1st to 15th, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 1.82% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production grew by 4.09%. High - frequency exports from November 1st to 20th decreased by 14.1% - 20.5%. Rapeseed oil stocks continued to decline due to the shutdown of most coastal oil mills, but the supply from Russia and Australia limited its upside. Soybean oil mainly followed the market's oscillations [11] - **International Oils**: Based on normal production levels and international demand in previous years, palm oil will enter a rapid de - stocking phase in the first quarter of next year. However, this year's production in Malaysia and Indonesia is larger than the same period last year, and the first quarter is a low - demand season. If Southeast Asian palm oil production remains high, the expected de - stocking may reverse [11] - **Domestic Oils**: This week, the spot basis of domestic oils was stable. Total domestic oil stocks continued to decline, with sufficient supply. As soybean crushing decreased due to lower arrivals, soybean oil production declined. Rapeseed oil stocks continued to decline due to low imports, and palm oil stocks remained stable due to low imports [11] - **Viewpoint Summary**: The high - yield of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. The short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield does not persist, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains high - yield, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view the market with an oscillatory perspective and turn to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents the basis and seasonal basis charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil, the 01 contract price, and the spot price of different regions, to show the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22][24] 3. Supply Side - **Production and Exports**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil to reflect the supply situation of different oils [27][28][29][31] - **Weather in Palm - producing Areas**: The report presents the weighted precipitation charts of Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas and the NINO 3.4 index chart, which may affect palm oil production [33][34] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory**: The report shows the total inventory chart of domestic three major oils and the inventory chart of Indian imported vegetable oils [40] - **Inventory of Different Oils**: It includes the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and major oil mill inventory of soybean oil, the coastal spot average crushing profit and commercial inventory of rapeseed oil, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [43][45][46][48] 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price chart of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price chart of Malaysian palm oil [50][52] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: It includes the CNF import price chart of rapeseed oil and the import cost price chart of rapeseed [54] 6. Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: The report shows the cumulative transaction volume charts of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [57] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It presents the POGO spread chart (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread chart (soybean oil - heating oil) to reflect the profit situation of biodiesel [59]

Market Overview - China's General Administration of Customs reported that in October, palm oil imports decreased by 11.7% year-on-year to 220,000 tons, while the cumulative imports from January to October fell by 15.3% to 1.96 million tons [1] - In contrast, soybean oil imports in October increased by 38.2% year-on-year to 20,000 tons, with a total of 290,000 tons imported from January to October, marking a 7.3% increase [1] - Canola oil and rapeseed oil imports in October dropped by 10.1% year-on-year to 140,000 tons, but the total imports from January to October rose by 18.7% to 1.74 million tons [1] Soybean Processing - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that member companies crushed 227.647 million bushels of soybeans in October, a 15.1% increase from September's 197.863 million bushels and a 13.9% increase from October 2024's 199.943 million bushels [1] Palm Oil Exports - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1-15 were 702,692 tons, a decrease of 10% compared to the same period last month, and from November 1-20, exports were 828,680 tons, down 14.1% from the previous month [2] Oil Production Forecast - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that Russia's oil production forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 510 million tons, and the country does not plan to actively reduce oil production, adhering to the OPEC+ agreement [2] Market Trends - The biodiesel theme's support appears to be short-lived, with palm oil prices in Malaysia significantly retreating to around 4,150. Domestic palm oil and soybean oil also declined, indicating a return to industry-driven market logic [4]

油脂日报 | 2025-11-20 油脂供需结构稳定，盘面震荡调整 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8852.00元/吨，环比变化+144元，幅度+1.65%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8356.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.43%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9813.00元/吨，环比变化-61.00元，幅度-0.62%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8780.00元/吨，环比变化+130.00元，幅度+1.50%，现货基差P01-72.00，环比变 化-14.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8540.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.47%，现货基差Y01+184.00， 环比变化+4.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10160.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.59%，现货基差 OI01+347.00，环比变化+1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(12月船期)C&F价格1164美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调21美元/吨；阿根廷豆油 (2月船期)C&F价格1165美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上调24美元/吨。进口菜籽油C&F报价：加拿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market, and the market is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the US energy policy and further news about Indonesia's B50 to boost the market. The strategy is mainly to stay on the sidelines. For the far - month P05 contract, there may be an opportunity to go long as palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year. It is also advisable to be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [2]. - The current core contradictions in the oil market include the digestion of palm oil inventory pressure in producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: In the October MPOB report, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by over 11%, inventory by over 4%, and exports by over 18%. With the entry into the production - reduction season, the cost - performance of palm oil is expected to increase. The B50 plan in Indonesia has uncertainties, and there are also limitations on production due to the transfer of plantation ownership [1]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oils**: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The resumption of US soybean purchases may increase domestic supply pressure. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to be tight due to the less - optimistic China - Canada talks [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient in the short term, but there will be a slow destocking at the end of the year, and there are short - term strength - weakness relationships within the sector [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. The price ranges are P2601 [8400 - 9000], Y2601 [8000 - 8500], and OI [9300 - 10000]. Pay attention to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil [15]. - **Technical analysis**: Go long on the P05 contract on dips, and be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [15]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Consider a reverse spread for P1 - 5. Be bullish on the expanding spreads between rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm oils [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price range for soybean oil is 8000 - 8500, and for rapeseed oil is 9300 - 10300 [18]. - **Hedging strategies**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits. Refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills can short soybean oil futures to prevent losses from high - inventory imports [20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: In October, the US soybean crushing volume far exceeded market expectations, reaching a record high [24]. - **Negative information**: The November USDA report was slightly negative for the US soybean market. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 15 decreased, and the inventory increased [25]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed oil increased [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, MPOB data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, and the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Domestic Market - **Unilateral trend**: The oil market was mainly in shock this week. Although the market sentiment is bearish, the downward space is limited due to uncertain factors such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season in producing areas [31]. - **Fund movement**: Positions in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. Palm oil had a slight increase in short positions from foreign investors and retail investors, and weak long - position confidence. Soybean oil's positions changed little, and foreign short - positions in rapeseed oil decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil's long - positions decreased due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [32]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The soybean and rapeseed oil markets showed a Back structure, which became shallower this week. The palm oil market had a complex structure, with 05 being the strongest and 09 relatively weak [33][36]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to be weak due to high domestic inventory and general downstream demand [33]. - **Spread structure**: The spreads between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils strengthened, and the rapeseed - soybean spread rebounded slightly. Rapeseed oil remained strong in the sector, while palm oil was the weakest [53]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was mainly in shock. The negative factors in palm - oil producing areas were temporarily exhausted. The US soybean market was affected by the slightly negative November USDA report. The cost of US soybeans supported the soybean oil market, and the supply gap of rapeseed oil made it stronger than palm oil [56]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO and BOHO spreads continued to decline. The price of palm oil in producing areas was weakly volatile, and the production cost of bio - fuel decreased slightly. The cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a multi - year low [64]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - As China is a net importer of palm oil, the import profit changed slightly with the low - level consolidation of the origin price, and there were few new purchases under the negative basis [67]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Deduction - **Palm oil**: With the negative basis, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure is not expected to increase, and the driving force from the producing areas may be reflected in the 05 contract [72]. - **Soybean oil**: The arrival of raw materials will decline in December, the crushing volume may decrease, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [72]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current domestic inventory is high, but it will gradually destock in the fourth quarter. If the China - Canada relationship does not ease, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [72]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Deduction - The inventory pressure of the three major oils is high in the short term, and the demand is weak. Although the fourth quarter is a traditional consumption peak season, the boost to the market after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand is expected to remain weak [74].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of project construction as a carrier for industrial development and a cornerstone for high-quality economic growth in Changchun City [1] Investment Growth - In the first three quarters of this year, industrial investment in Changchun increased by 1.2% year-on-year, which is 10.6 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth rate, accounting for 23.2% of total social investment [1] Project Construction - A total of 424 industrial projects with an investment of over 50 million yuan have commenced or resumed construction, including key projects like the OLED display materials development and the new 600,000 tons/year oil processing project by COFCO [1] - The city has established a positive cycle of "building a batch, reserving a batch, and planning a batch" with steady progress in ongoing projects and accelerated implementation of new projects [1] National Support - Changchun successfully applied to become a pilot city for new-type technological transformation in manufacturing, securing 300 million yuan in national matching funds for support [1] Industrial Economic Performance - The industrial economy of Changchun has shown significant progress, driven by the transformation of the automotive industry, the rise of emerging industries, digital empowerment, innovation-driven breakthroughs, and robust project construction [1] - The article concludes that the path of "innovation" for Changchun's industry will continue to broaden from this new development starting point [1]