1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, etc. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures showed different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, crude oil (SC2511) was at 483, down 6 (-1.31%), with a trading volume of 2.92 million lots (down 0.40 million lots) and open interest of 2.26 million lots (up 0.09 million lots) [4] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties had different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil was 0.85 (up 0.18), and the open interest PCR was 0.85 (up 0.12) [5] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of each option variety were analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil was 570 and the support level was 415 [6] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option variety was presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil was 29.61%, and the weighted implied volatility was 33.95% (up 2.83%) [7] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options: Crude Oil - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical short - term disturbances, long - term supply - demand negatives, and concerns about employment and the economy. **Market analysis**: A bearish market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility around the mean, open interest PCR above 0.80, pressure level at 570 and support level at 415. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] 3.5.2 Energy - related Options: Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Fundamentals**: Loose supply and low demand. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility near the mean, open interest PCR around 0.70. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.3 Alcohol - related Options: Methanol - **Fundamentals**: Increased production and capacity utilization. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR around 0.90. **Strategies**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.4 Alcohol - related Options: Ethylene Glycol - **Fundamentals**: Decreased inventory. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a short - volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.5 Polyolefin - related Options: Polypropylene - **Fundamentals**: Increased maintenance losses. **Market analysis**: A weak market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility below the mean, open interest PCR around 0.60. **Strategies**: A long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.6 Rubber - related Options: Rubber - **Fundamentals**: Decreased tire production load. **Market analysis**: A gradually warming - up market with support and pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility near the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.7 Polyester - related Options: PTA - **Fundamentals**: Stable supply - demand, low inventory and processing fees. **Market analysis**: A weak bearish market with pressure. **Option factors**: Implied volatility above the mean, open interest PCR around 0.70. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12] 3.5.8 Alkali - related Options: Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: Changes in production load. **Market analysis**: A market with pressure and downward fluctuations. **Option factors**: High - level implied volatility, open interest PCR around 1.00. **Strategies**: A long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.9 Alkali - related Options: Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: Increased production, weak price due to market supply. **Market analysis**: A low - level weak consolidation market with pressure. **Option factors**: High - level implied volatility, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.10 Urea Options - **Fundamentals**: Weak supply - demand, slow new order transactions. **Market analysis**: A low - level weak consolidation market. **Option factors**: Implied volatility around the mean, open interest PCR below 0.60. **Strategies**: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - The current core contradiction in the polyolefin market is not prominent. In the PE market, the current maintenance remains high, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively limited. In the PP market, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases. However, after the new device is put into production in early September, the pressure in East China increases, driving the basis to weaken rapidly, and market transactions are dull [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to be more relaxed than expected due to the maintenance of a reforming device in East China, and the weakening demand support will limit the price drive. For styrene, the overall start - up of downstream 3S has rebounded this week, and the port inventory has fallen from a high level. There is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future, but the rebound space is limited due to high port inventory [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda market has stabilized slightly in the past two days, and the supply is expected to decline next week. The demand is expected to weaken in the future, but the inventory pressure of caustic soda enterprises is not large, and the spot price may remain firm in the short term. The PVC market has stopped falling and stabilized recently, but the overall pattern of oversupply is difficult to reverse, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in demand [30]. Polyester Industry - PX supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the supply - demand expectation in September is relatively loose, but the medium - term supply - demand is still expected to be tight. PTA supply - demand is expected to be tight in September, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol supply is strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - fiber supply - demand is still weak in the short term. Bottle - chip supply - demand may be balanced in September, and inventory may increase slightly [33]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fell due to concerns about supply surplus overwhelming the premium brought by geopolitical risks. In the short term, oil prices are likely to run weakly, and it is recommended to take a short - side approach [38]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the dual pressure of increased supply and weak demand. The domestic urea daily output has rebounded, while agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is limited [42]. Methanol Industry - The methanol supply is expected to increase in September as domestic maintenance devices return and foreign start - up reaches a seasonal high. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and the port inventory has increased significantly, with weak basis performance and prominent pressure [44]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, with decreases of 0.24%, 0.43%, 0.13%, and 0.71% respectively. The spreads of L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased by 28.00% and 42.55% respectively [23]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends last week, with PE de - stocking and PP stocking. The current maintenance of PE remains high, and short - term supply pressure is limited. For PP, propane is strong, PDH losses intensify, and short - term unplanned maintenance increases, but new devices will increase pressure after being put into production in September [23]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR China pure benzene, and styrene in East China all changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.7%, and the price of styrene in East China increased by 0.3% [26]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10.2%. The supply of pure benzene in September is expected to decrease, and the demand support is weakening. For styrene, there is an expectation of improvement in supply and demand in the future [26]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% remained unchanged, the price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.2%, and the price of East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged [31]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 7.8%, and the total social inventory of PVC increased by 2.1%. The supply of caustic soda is expected to decline next week, and the demand for PVC remains weak [31]. Polyester Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and various polyester products changed. For example, the price of POY150/48 increased by 0.5%, and the price of FDY150/96 decreased by 0.5% [34]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The supply of PX is gradually increasing, and the supply - demand in September is expected to be relatively loose. The supply - demand of PTA in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fees have limited repair drivers. Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term supply - demand balance but may face oversupply in the fourth quarter [34]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price Change**: On September 12th compared with September 11th, the prices of Brent, WTI, and various refined oil products decreased. For example, the price of Brent decreased by 1.66%, and the price of NYM RBOB decreased by 0.51% [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of crude oil is expected to be in a record - high surplus next year, and the increase in Saudi Arabia's export quota to China confirms the supply pressure. The increase in the number of initial jobless claims in the United States has raised concerns about economic and demand slowdown [38]. Urea Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing price of the methanol main contract decreased by 0.83%, and the prices of various urea futures contracts and spreads also changed [42]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The domestic urea daily output has rebounded to 18.44 tons, and the start - up rate has increased month - on - month. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial rigid - demand procurement is limited. Although export containerization provides some support, the decline in Indian consumption weakens the positive effect [42]. Methanol Industry - **Price Change**: From September 10th to 11th, the closing prices of MA2601 and MA2509 decreased by 0.83% and 2.30% respectively, and the MA91 spread decreased by 22.54% [44]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.43%, and the port inventory increased by 8.59%. The domestic maintenance devices are expected to return in early September, and the foreign start - up has reached a seasonal high, while the traditional downstream demand remains weak [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost - end demand expectation is poor, the medium - and long - term operating center is declining, the cost support is loosening, and the demand at the initial stage of recovery is insufficient to support raw materials, so the market is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the actual improvement of consumption in September [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: The opening prices of plastic 2601, 2605, and 2509 were 7222, 7235, and 7142 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 7209, 7220, and 7145 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.33%, - 0.32%, and - 0.28% respectively. The trading volume of plastic 2601 was 218,000 lots, and the positions increased by 16,282 lots to 533,469 lots [5][6]. - **PP Futures**: The opening prices of PP2601, 2605, and 2509 were 6952, 6977, and 6773 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 6939, 6961, and 6805 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.17%, - 0.17%, and - 0.40% respectively. The positions of PP2601 increased by 9293 lots to 624,200 lots [5][6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: For PP, the impact of maintenance is weakening, new production capacity is continuously released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream is in the transition stage between peak and off - peak seasons, and the overall recovery trend is not good. For PE, the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the short - term maintenance loss is increasing, the new supply is slow, and the downstream agricultural film is expected to drive social inventory reduction [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 655,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.96%. The inventory in the same period last year was 790,000 tons [7]. - **PE Market**: The PE market prices were partially weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7120 - 7450, 7200 - 7650, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6680 - 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream product cost pressure increased, the market trading atmosphere was average [7]. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to be weakly adjusted. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6700 - 6870, 6720 - 6940, and 6700 - 6930 yuan/ton respectively [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][16]

在谨慎的市场氛围下，聚烯烃下游需求在"金九银十"旺季是否还有增长机会？ "聚烯烃装置9月检修率较高，且受上半年市场行情影响，中下游企业在旺季前库存偏低、备货不多，这 为需求短期反弹提供了空间。"钱程表示，但是，"旺季不旺"已逐渐成为近年来聚烯烃行业的常态，旺 季的"热度"可能会打折扣。 "金九银十"本是大宗商品市场期待的消费旺季，然而，今年聚烯烃下游却"冷暖不一"，市场信心受到考 验。 聚烯烃下游表现明显分化。嘉悦物产集团有限公司高级业务总监钱程告诉期货日报记者，家电等行业受 补贴政策退坡影响，需求增长乏力；管材行业则长期处于低位运行，复苏动力不足。不过，并非所有下 游环节都"一片冷清"。据钱程介绍，包装膜行业有所回暖，订单量稳步增长，开工率也随之提升；农业 膜行业虽然启动时间与往年相比偏晚，但依然扛起了旺季"主力军"的大旗，在下游市场中发挥了重要的 支撑作用。 "虽然市场期待'金九银十'引领需求复苏，但聚烯烃供应持续增长，中期来看供应压力依然较大。"广发 期货能化首席分析师张晓珍表示，即便当下处于需求旺季，从业者依然担心供应过剩会进一步冲击市 场，影响产品价格和企业利润水平。 "今年聚烯烃新项目大量投产，实 ...

Energy and Chemicals - Oil prices increased on Wednesday, with WTI October contract closing at $63.67 per barrel, up $1.04, a rise of 1.66%. Brent November contract closed at $67.49 per barrel, also up $1.10, a rise of 1.66% [2] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose by 3.9 million barrels to 424.6 million barrels as of the week ending September 5. U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day to 2.8 million barrels per day [2] - The geopolitical risks are influencing oil prices, leading to fluctuations in the market [2] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2510 rose by 1.44% to 2827 yuan/ton, while the low-sulfur main contract LU2511 increased by 0.48% to 3383 yuan/ton [3] - An increase in supply from Singapore has been noted, with more low-sulfur fuel oil components flowing from Western markets to Asia [3] - The high-sulfur fuel oil market is weakening due to low demand for raw materials ahead of the autumn refinery maintenance season [3] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2510 closed up 0.55% at 3463 yuan/ton. Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 27.11%, a rise of 0.66% week-on-week [4] - The operating rate of domestic asphalt plants decreased to 39.59%, down 0.63% week-on-week [4] - The upcoming demand peak in September is expected to ease supply-demand conflicts, potentially leading to further price increases [4] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2601 rose by 40 yuan/ton to 15980 yuan/ton, while NR main contract fell by 20 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [5] - China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, a decline of 0.57% [5] - The market is expected to remain strong due to stable demand and inventory depletion [5] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA601 closed at 4698 yuan/ton, up 0.43%, while EG2601 closed at 4319 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [6] - PX main contract closed at 6770 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with spot prices at $838 per ton [6] - The PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA is expected to improve as maintenance is completed [6] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2295 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $261-$265 per ton [7] - Domestic supply is expected to gradually recover as production resumes, while Iranian shipments remain stable [7] - The market is anticipated to reach a temporary bottom as inventory levels peak after mid-month [7] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for East China PP were between 6750-6960 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported [8] - Demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the "golden September and silver October" demand season [8] - The market is transitioning towards a balanced supply-demand scenario, but cost pressures remain [8] PVC - PVC market prices in East China are stabilizing, with electric stone method prices ranging from 4620-4730 yuan/ton [9] - Domestic construction activity is recovering, but overall demand remains weak compared to last year [9] - The market faces high inventory pressure, leading to a gradual compression of production profits [9] Urea - Urea prices continued to trend weakly, with the main contract closing at 1669 yuan/ton, down 1.01% [10] - The supply level remains stable, but demand sentiment is weak, with low sales rates reported [10] - The market is under pressure due to inventory increases and limited new export expectations [11] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices remained firm, with the main contract closing at 1281 yuan/ton, down 0.47% [12] - The market is stable, with production levels declining due to increased maintenance and equipment changes [12] - Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, but macro sentiment continues to support prices [12] Glass - Glass futures prices showed stability, with the main contract closing at 1181 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [13] - The domestic float glass market average price was 1164 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [13] - Demand sentiment remains positive, but no significant improvements in supply-demand balance are observed [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - Alkali Industry - The caustic soda futures price may have limited downside space. The spot price may remain firm in the short - term due to low inventory pressure on caustic soda enterprises and expected supply decline. Attention should be paid to the alumina plant's purchasing rhythm and device fluctuations [2]. - The PVC futures price will continue to be weakly volatile. The supply - demand pressure increases, and the demand has not improved. Although in the traditional peak season, the demand remains sluggish. The cost side provides some support [2]. Methanol Industry - On the supply side, inland maintenance devices are expected to gradually resume in early September, and the import volume will still be large. On the demand side, traditional downstream sectors are still weak. The port has been significantly accumulating inventory, and the basis is weak. The key is to focus on the inventory digestion rhythm [5]. Urea Industry - The urea futures price is running weakly due to the short - term imbalance of domestic supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is abundant, while the demand is weak, leading to inventory accumulation in factories [11]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price continued to fluctuate widely. The current oil price is supported by geopolitical premiums, but the upside space is restricted by the loose fundamentals. It is recommended to mainly observe on the long - short side and wait for opportunities to expand the spread on the options side [44]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is gradually increasing to a relatively high level, and the mid - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. The price has support at the low level, but the upside space of the rebound is limited. It is recommended to treat PX11 as a short - term shock between 6600 - 6900 [39]. - PTA: The supply - demand in September is expected to be tight, but the basis and processing fee repair drive are limited. It is recommended to treat TA as a short - term shock between 4600 - 4800 and mainly conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse spreads [39]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. It is expected to slightly reduce inventory in September and enter the inventory accumulation channel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the support of EG01 at around 4300 and the EG1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [39]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is still weak, following the raw material fluctuations. The unilateral strategy is the same as that of PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [39]. - Bottle chips: In September, the supply and demand may both decrease, and the inventory is expected to increase. PR follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has limited upside space [39]. Polyolefin Industry - For PP, the loss of PDH is intensifying, and the basis has weakened rapidly. For PE, the current maintenance is still at a relatively high level, and the supply pressure is relatively limited in the short - term. The overall market will present a pattern of "decreasing supply and increasing demand" [49][51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The supply in September is lower than expected, and the demand support is weakening. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is driven by the strong oil price. BZ2603 is expected to follow styrene and fluctuate strongly [57]. - Styrene: The short - term drive is weak, but the supply - demand is expected to improve in the future. The price is supported by the oil price, but the rebound space is limited by high inventory. EB10 can be treated with low - buying on a rolling basis, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7200 and the spread expansion between EB11 - BZ11 [57]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: The spot prices of caustic soda and PVC remained stable on September 10, while the futures prices showed different degrees of changes. For example, SH2509 of caustic soda increased by 7.0%, and V2509 of PVC increased by 0.1% [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate is expected to decline next week due to maintenance. The PVC supply has an upward expectation as some device maintenance is restored [2]. - **Demand**: The demand for caustic soda is expected to weaken, especially from the alumina industry. The PVC demand has not improved, and downstream product enterprises maintain a low operating rate [2]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the methanol futures and spot prices showed different degrees of increase. For example, MA2601 increased by 0.38%, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 1.31% [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased. The port inventory increased by 8.59% [4]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic and overseas enterprise operating rates increased, while some downstream operating rates decreased, such as the formaldehyde and glacial acetic acid operating rates [5]. Urea Industry - **Prices**: The urea futures price is running weakly. The spot prices in different regions showed little change on September 10 [11]. - **Supply**: The daily output of urea remains at a high level, and some maintenance devices are expected to resume production [11]. - **Demand**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the industrial demand is for rigid procurement, resulting in insufficient total demand [11]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory increased, while the port inventory remained unchanged [11]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: On September 11, the prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased slightly. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [44]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: According to EIA data, the U.S. crude oil production, refinery operating rate, and various inventory changes are shown in the report [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and PX increased slightly, while the prices of some downstream polyester products decreased, such as the polyester bottle chip price [39]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products showed different degrees of changes. For example, the Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.9% [39]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory is at a low level, and the arrival volume in early September is moderately low [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the futures prices of LLDPE and PP showed small changes, and the spot prices remained stable [49]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and the PP device operating rate increased. The downstream weighted operating rates of both increased slightly [49]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory increased, and the PP enterprise inventory decreased. The PP trader inventory increased [49]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: On September 10, the prices of upstream crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene increased slightly, while the price of styrene remained stable [57]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of some pure benzene and styrene downstream products decreased, while the styrene operating rate increased [57]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The report maintains the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, believing that the current oil price is relatively undervalued, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - opens, the oil price will have more upside potential [2] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.80 yuan/barrel, or 0.58%, to 486.20 yuan/barrel [1] - **Inventory Data**: US EIA weekly data showed that US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.94 million barrels to 424.65 million barrels, a 0.94% increase; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 405.22 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 1.46 million barrels to 220.00 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; diesel inventories increased by 4.72 million barrels to 120.64 million barrels, a 4.07% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 1.30 million barrels to 21.21 million barrels, a 6.51% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.47 million barrels to 43.27 million barrels, a 1.11% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract rose 9 yuan/ton to 2407 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 112 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production has further increased, coal prices have slightly declined, and corporate profits are generally good. Overseas production has returned to a year - on - year high, and there is still import pressure. The port MTO load has slightly increased, and profits have continued to improve, but traditional demand is still weak. It is expected that the decline space is limited, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low prices and 1 - 5 positive spreads [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On September 10, the 01 - contract fell 14 yuan/ton to 1669 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 9 [6] - **Analysis**: As the spot price weakens, corporate profits have further declined, and the production start - up rate has significantly decreased, reducing supply pressure. However, demand is weak, and port inventories are rising. It is expected that the price will move within a range, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU fluctuated weakly, following the trend of industrial products such as coking coal. Thai standard mixed rubber was priced at 15000 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1845 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was at 1855 (+ 5) dollars [9][12] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe that rubber production in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may be limited, the seasonality of rubber usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. Bears believe that macro - expectations are uncertain, demand is in the off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view, but a neutral view in the short - term, either waiting and watching or making quick trades [10][12] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract rose 10 yuan to 4857 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 (0) yuan/ton, the basis was - 207 (- 10) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+ 6) yuan/ton [14] - **Analysis**: The comprehensive corporate profit is at a high level this year, with high valuation pressure, low maintenance volume, and high production. Domestic demand is at a five - year low, and export expectations have weakened after the determination of India's anti - dumping tax rate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - position opportunities at high prices, but also beware of short - term upward movements [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, while the futures price rose, and the basis weakened. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with large upward correction space [16] - **Analysis**: The cost - side pure benzene production is in a neutral and volatile state, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the production start - up rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory has continued to decline significantly. In the long - term, the BZN spread may be repaired, and the styrene price may rebound after the inventory decline inflection point [16][17] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 7226 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7220 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 6 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [19] - **Analysis**: There is only 400,000 tons of planned production capacity left, and the overall inventory is declining from a high level. The seasonal peak season may be coming, and the demand - side agricultural film raw material procurement has started. In the long - term, the price may fluctuate upward [19] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The main contract closed at 6948 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton, the spot price was 6955 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 7 yuan/ton, strengthening by 1 yuan/ton [20] - **Analysis**: There is still 1.45 million tons of planned production capacity, with high supply pressure. The downstream production start - up rate has rebounded seasonally from a low level. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract at low prices [20] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract rose 44 yuan to 6770 yuan, the PX CFR rose 2 dollars to 838 dollars, and the basis was 94 yuan (- 22) [22] - **Analysis**: The PX production load is at a high level, and although the downstream PTA has many unexpected maintenance in the short - term, the PX inventory accumulation is not large due to new PTA device production. The terminal and polyester data are gradually improving, and the valuation has limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices during the peak season [22][23] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract rose 20 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price rose 20 yuan to 4625 yuan, and the basis was - 63 yuan (0) [24] - **Analysis**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance has increased, and the inventory accumulation pattern has turned into de - stocking, but the processing fee is suppressed. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure is low, and the downstream and terminal production start - up rates have improved, but the terminal recovery speed is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [24] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract fell 3 yuan to 4319 yuan, the East China spot price fell 15 yuan to 4439 yuan, and the basis was 117 yuan (- 15) [25] - **Analysis**: Overseas and domestic maintenance devices have gradually started, and the production start - up rate has reached a high level. The domestic supply is high. In the short - term, the port inventory is expected to be low due to less arrival volume, but it will turn into inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The valuation is currently relatively high year - on - year, and there is downward pressure in the medium - term [25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply of olefins - polyolefins is polarized, with tight supply of propylene and stable supply of polyolefins. Market performance varies due to different demand situations [2] - The price of pure benzene is weakly operating, but there may be improvements in the third - quarter supply - demand situation. The price of styrene has certain support [3] - In the polyester industry, PX and PTA prices are related, and the demand for polyester products shows a positive trend, but there are also issues such as high inventory [5] - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, while the urea market is expected to remain weak [6] - The PVC market is under supply pressure and may decline, and the caustic soda market will likely fluctuate widely [7] - The soda ash market may be short - sold at high prices, and the glass market is expected to fluctuate widely [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate narrowly around the 5 - day moving average, with tight supply and strong downstream demand. Polyolefin futures are in a low - level range, with stable supply but slow demand growth [2] Pure Benzene - The price of pure benzene fluctuates above 6000 yuan/ton, with increasing supply and demand, and a weak price due to factors such as poor downstream profitability. The price of styrene has certain support due to device maintenance [3] Polyester - PX price rebounds, PTA follows up slightly, and the demand for polyester products is improving, but there are issues such as high inventory. Ethylene glycol has a strong basis, and short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market may stabilize after a weak period, with port inventory accumulation and expected demand improvement. The urea market is expected to remain weak due to factors such as high inventory and weak demand [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC has supply pressure and may decline due to new device production. Caustic soda has a differentiated performance in different regions and is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash supply is slightly reduced, and the market may be short - sold at high prices. Glass production capacity is increasing slightly, and the price may fluctuate widely [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Plastic, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda, Soda Ash, Glass are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different product trends. Some products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, cost factors, and seasonal demand changes. Attention should be paid to the balance of different product chains, oil price fluctuations, new capacity, and the rhythm of seasonal demand recovery [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures had a narrow - range intraday consolidation. Downstream cost pressure led to reduced demand, and production enterprises were more willing to offer discounts [2] - Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate in a low - level range. PE supply increased while demand entered the traditional peak season. PP supply was relatively loose, and actual demand recovery was slow [2] Pure Benzene - Domestic benzene continued to rebound, with improved low - price demand after a decline. In the third quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve [3] - Styrene futures closed higher. Cost support was insufficient, and there was high inventory pressure at the terminal [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices stopped falling and fluctuated at a low level. Terminal demand was improving, and attention should be paid to the balance of PX - polyester and oil price fluctuations [5] - Ethylene glycol prices fluctuated at a low level. Supply and demand were intertwined, and there was resistance to further decline [5] - Short - fiber supply and demand were stable, and prices mainly fluctuated with costs. Positive hedging could be considered if demand improved [5] - Bottle - chip profits were passively repaired, but over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose. Supply increased significantly, and inventory continued to accumulate, but the market was expected to strengthen [6] - Urea market oscillated at a low level. Domestic production decreased, but was still high year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of Indian tenders [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated strongly. Cost support was not obvious, and there was a game between low valuation and weak reality [7] - Caustic soda oscillated strongly. There were regional differences, and the price was expected to oscillate widely [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash was strong. The supply pressure was high, and long - term over - supply was expected. Short - selling at high rebounds was recommended [8] - Glass was strong. Spot prices continued to decline, but the price was expected to rise if the macro - sentiment improved [8]