Core Insights - The overall price index of Linyi Mall decreased slightly to 102.57 points, with a marginal decline of 0.01 points or 0.01% compared to the previous week [1] Price Index Summary - **Steel Category**: The weekly price index for steel rose to 98.02 points, increasing by 0.08 points. This was driven by price increases in plate steel, construction steel, and profile steel, while pipe prices remained stable. The steel futures market showed an upward trend, and the increase in raw material prices contributed to a slight rise in sales volume [1] - **Home Appliances and Audio-Visual Equipment**: The index for this category increased to 103.19 points, up by 0.04 points. Prices for kitchen appliances and electric fans rebounded, while personal appliances saw a slight increase. The wholesale prices for kitchen appliances remained stable, but sales of high-priced air conditioning fans rose [2] - **Grain, Oil, and Food**: The index for this category rose to 95.15 points, with an increase of 0.02 points. Prices for seasonings, grains, and dried fruits increased due to heightened demand from the restaurant sector and rising procurement needs for dried fruits like jujubes and walnuts [3] - **Clothing and Accessories**: The index for this category fell to 104.22 points, decreasing by 0.08 points. The decline was attributed to high inventory levels of summer clothing and low consumer willingness to spend, coupled with insufficient market acceptance of new autumn products [4] - **Board Materials**: The index for board materials decreased to 96.48 points, down by 0.05 points. The overall market for board materials was sluggish, influenced by weak demand in the real estate sector, leading to price reductions in various board products [5] - **Furniture**: The index for furniture dropped to 88.90 points, with a decrease of 0.02 points. The furniture market is currently weak, with consumers focusing on cost-effectiveness and practicality, prompting price reductions on certain furniture items to accelerate turnover [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in international relations, particularly the meeting between the US and Russia, and its implications for various commodities, including oil, precious metals, and steel. It highlights the impact of inflation data on market expectations and the ongoing adjustments in supply and demand dynamics across different sectors [1][2][3]. Group 1: International News - The meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky is set for August 18, with potential for a trilateral meeting involving Russia [1]. - The US government has expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum imports by 50%, affecting hundreds of derivative products [1]. Group 2: Commodity Focus Oil - SC night trading saw a slight decline, with no clear conclusions from the US-Russia talks. Initial jobless claims in the US decreased, but weak domestic demand may push the unemployment rate to 4.3% in August [2][13]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9% month-on-month, leading to reduced bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [2][13]. Precious Metals - Inflation data exceeded expectations, putting pressure on gold and silver prices. The PPI for July increased by 0.9% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, the highest in five months [3][18]. - The US Treasury Secretary indicated a significant likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, affecting market sentiment towards precious metals [3][18]. Steel - Steel mills are maintaining profitability, but supply pressures are beginning to show. Steel inventories continue to decline, and while exports face tariff challenges, the export of steel billets remains strong [4][24]. - The overall steel market is currently balanced, with no significant supply-demand conflicts, and is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the near term [4][24]. Group 3: Domestic Developments - The Hong Kong government is progressing towards establishing a commodity trading ecosystem, focusing on becoming an international gold trading center [6]. - Reports from various wealth management companies indicate growth in their product scales, with some companies experiencing significant increases in their asset management [7]. Group 4: Market Performance - The US stock indices showed mixed results, with a notable increase in financing balances, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by anti-involution policies [10]. - The bond market saw a rise in yields, with the 10-year treasury yield reaching 1.7355%, influenced by inflation data and expectations of future rate cuts [11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The USDA report indicated a reduction in US soybean planting area, leading to a decrease in projected soybean production, which is expected to tighten inventories [26]. - The palm oil market is experiencing mixed signals due to production increases and export growth, while the market is also digesting the implications of anti-dumping measures on canola [27]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index showed fluctuations, with a notable drop in container prices, indicating potential pressure on shipping rates as the market adjusts to seasonal demand [31].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China may implement further reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts around the beginning of the fourth quarter [1] - China's steel exports showed strong resilience in the first seven months, driven by emerging market expansion and high-tech product competitiveness [2] - If production restrictions are strictly enforced, steel profits in the Tangshan region could recover, impacting daily output by approximately 90,000 tons [2] - Tungsten prices have reached new highs due to supply constraints, with domestic quotas and environmental inspections leading to decreased supply [2] - The overall balance of tungsten supply remains tight, with overseas shortages more pronounced than domestic [2] Group 2 - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with upstream equipment sectors expected to benefit first as production costs decrease [2] - European countries are committing to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2025, which may drive demand for key materials and equipment [3] - The market for solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) in data centers is projected to reach $7 billion over the next three years, driven by high efficiency and rapid deployment capabilities [3] Group 3 - Monetary policy in the second half of the year may be more accommodative than expected, with potential interest rate cuts of 10-20 basis points anticipated [4] - Economic data for July showed slight contractions in both supply and demand, with a notable decline in domestic demand [5] - Industrial production growth slowed to 5.7% year-on-year in July, down from 6.8% in June, influenced by extreme weather conditions [6] Group 4 - The silver-haired consumer market is expanding, with daily consumption and health care being the main sectors, presenting investment opportunities [7] - The application of teachless robots in shipbuilding is expected to grow, benefiting companies involved in this technology as it overcomes technical challenges [8] - The chemical industry is approaching a cyclical turning point as it shifts focus from market share to profitability amid supply-demand mismatches [9] Group 5 - Wind power has a cost advantage over solar power in the short term, but solar's overall cost is expected to be lower in the long run due to technological advancements [10]

Economic Performance Overview - In July, China's economy maintained a steady growth trend, with key indicators showing positive performance [1][2] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while the added value of large-scale equipment manufacturing rose by 8.4%, significantly outpacing the overall industrial growth [2] - The service sector also saw growth, with the service production index increasing by 5.8% year-on-year in July, driven by increased tourism during the summer [2][7] Consumption and Investment - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, with commodity retail sales increasing by 4% [2] - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, despite a slowdown due to adverse weather and project delays [2] - Investment in equipment and tools saw a notable increase of 15.2% year-on-year during the same period [2] Foreign Trade - China's total goods import and export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year in July, with exports growing by 8% and imports rising by 4.8% [5][6] - Trade with ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road Initiative countries saw significant growth, with respective increases of 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7% from January to July [6] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate was stable at 5.2% in July, consistent with the same period last year [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a slight decrease of 0.2%, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March [4] New Growth Drivers - The high-tech manufacturing sector's added value grew by 9.3% year-on-year in July, continuing to outpace overall industrial growth [3] - The production of new energy vehicles surged by 17.1% in July, indicating a strong performance in this emerging sector [3] Service Sector Contribution - The service sector contributed over 60% to economic growth in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% in added value [7] - The transportation and postal services sector saw a production index increase of 5.5% in July, with significant growth in railway and international passenger transport [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18%, Shenzhen Component down 0.28%, and ChiNext down 0.20% [1] - U.S. stock markets struggled to maintain gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.03% at 6468.54 points, Nasdaq down 0.01% at 21710.67 points, and Dow Jones down 0.02% at 44911.26 points [2] - Chinese concept stocks saw a collective decline, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index down 2.13% [3] Company Performance - JD.com fell 2.86% after releasing its earnings report, while Weibo surged 11.28%, Youdao rose 9.91%, and Xunlei increased by 12.72% [4] Industry Insights - **Steel Industry**: CITIC Securities suggests that strict production limits could restore steel profits, with China exporting 67.983 million tons of steel from January to July, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [5] - **Pet Medical Industry**: CICC indicates that the pet medical sector is poised for growth, transitioning to a second growth curve in the pet economy, characterized by high barriers and profitability [6] - **Robotics in Welding**: Huatai Securities notes that the shift of teaching-free robots from steel structures to shipbuilding could benefit related companies, as these robots address labor shortages in welding [7] - **Yellow Wine Industry**: Tianfeng Securities believes that the yellow wine sector is on the verge of revival, driven by leading companies promoting nationalization, premiumization, and targeting younger demographics [8]

Price Trends in Various Markets - National production material market prices decreased by 0.2% from the previous week [1] - Wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly declined, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [1] Rubber and Steel Prices - Rubber prices experienced a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices predominantly decreased, with rebar, high-speed wire, and channel steel priced at 3452 yuan, 3639 yuan, and 3690 yuan per ton, showing declines of 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively [2] Non-Ferrous Metals and Chemical Prices - Non-ferrous metal prices showed slight fluctuations, with copper decreasing by 0.6%, while zinc and aluminum increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [3] - Basic chemical raw material prices remained stable, with soda ash and polypropylene decreasing by 0.4% and 0.3%, while methanol remained unchanged and sulfuric acid increased by 0.1% [3] Fertilizer and Coal Prices - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea and compound fertilizers unchanged from the previous week [4] - Coal prices saw a slight increase, with coking coal, anthracite, and thermal coal priced at 976 yuan, 1135 yuan, and 761 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [4]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.1% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 4.19 yuan per kilogram, rising by 2.4%, with spinach, cauliflower, and cucumber increasing by 24.5%, 16.9%, and 9.9% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of grain and oil showed slight fluctuations, with rapeseed oil up by 0.1%, while soybean oil and rice prices remained stable, and flour and peanut oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with white strip chicken increasing by 0.3% and eggs decreasing by 1.0% [1] - Meat wholesale prices slightly declined, with pork at 20.31 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.2%, while lamb decreased by 0.1% and beef increased by 0.3% [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products decreased, with large yellow croaker, large hairtail, and crucian carp dropping by 1.1%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - Fruit wholesale prices saw a slight decline, with watermelon, pear, and grape prices falling by 4.0%, 2.2%, and 1.6% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - The wholesale prices of finished oil products slightly decreased, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline dropping by 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Rubber prices showed a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber decreasing by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices predominantly decreased, with rebar, high-speed wire, and channel steel priced at 3452 yuan, 3639 yuan, and 3690 yuan per ton, down by 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed slight fluctuations, with copper down by 0.6%, while zinc and aluminum increased by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices remained stable, with soda ash and polypropylene decreasing by 0.4% and 0.3%, while methanol remained unchanged and sulfuric acid increased by 0.1% [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea and ternary compound fertilizer unchanged from the previous week [2] - Coal prices saw a slight increase, with coking coal, smokeless lump coal, and thermal coal priced at 976 yuan, 1135 yuan, and 761 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.8%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on macroeconomic data, industry news, and inventory changes in each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Wednesday, A - shares rose strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The semiconductor产业链 was hot, while high - dividend sectors such as banks and coal had a slight correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and their basis further repaired [2][3]. - News: China counter - sanctioned two EU banks. The US July CPI was in line with expectations, and the market expected a Fed rate cut in September [3][4]. - Capital: A - share trading volume increased significantly, with a turnover of over 2.15 trillion. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: The basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.14%, 0.21%, - 0.87%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price near 6400 on rallies, with a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.02%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were in a comfortable state, and the liquidity might converge slightly in the short term [5][6]. - Fundamentals: China's M2, M1, and M0 balances increased year - on - year in July. The increase in social financing scale was 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, but entity credit decreased [6]. - Operation suggestion: The credit in July was weaker year - on - year, and the bond market sentiment stabilized. The 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the tax - period funds and new bond issuance pricing [6]. Precious Metals - News: The US Treasury Secretary said that the US might increase sanctions on Russia. Some Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts, and the market continued to digest the expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - Market: International gold prices rose slightly, closing at $3355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%. International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, hitting a three - week high [8]. - Outlook: The market sentiment was affected by trade agreements, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increased. Technically, gold faced resistance at $3450. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options on price pullbacks. Silver may fluctuate in a range, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed with put options [8][10]. Shipping - Container Shipping Futures - Spot price: As of August 14, the spot prices of major shipping companies were provided [11]. - Index: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index also fell [11]. - Fundamentals: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone and US manufacturing PMIs were provided [11]. - Logic: The futures price declined, and the main contract broke through the 1400 - point support. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, the price of the October contract may be lower than last year [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and short positions in the 10 - contract can be held [12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased. The willingness of holders to sell at low prices was low [13]. - Macro: Trump signed the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days. The US July CPI data increased the probability of a September rate cut [13][14]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods decreased, while that of recycled copper rods increased. The domestic demand was resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [15]. - Inventory: COMEX and LME copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: The market expected a Fed rate cut in September, and the short - term tariff risk was released. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, and the price was expected to fluctuate in a range [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [17]. Alumina - Spot: On August 13, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Supply: The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The alumina port inventory and warehouse receipts increased [18]. - Logic: The supply - side concerns had limited impact, and the market was slightly oversupplied. The price may fluctuate between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract may run between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased [19]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio decreased [20][21]. - Demand: The downstream was in the off - season, and the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum foil, etc. were generally low [21]. - Inventory: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories increased [21]. - Logic: The market increased the bet on a Fed rate cut in September, and the aluminum price rose slightly. The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price may be under pressure in the short term, running between 20000 - 21000 [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 20000 - 21000, paying attention to the resistance at 21000 [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in June increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and cost factors [23]. - Demand: The demand in July was under pressure, and the trading activity decreased. The inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The price followed the aluminum price and fluctuated strongly. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 19200 - 20200 [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 19400 - 20400 [24]. Zinc - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream was reluctant to buy at high prices [24]. - Supply: The zinc ore TC remained stable. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - Demand: The spot premium of zinc decreased. The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement was weak [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [28]. - Logic: The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The zinc price may fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - Spot: On August 13, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream was reluctant to replenish inventory [29]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore imports in June were at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter [31]. - Demand: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry declined, and the demand was expected to be weak [30][31]. - Inventory: The LME inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased slightly [30]. - Logic: The rate - cut expectation drove the tin price up. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the Myanmar tin ore imports [31][32]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The refined nickel production in July was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and high - priced nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: The market sentiment was stable, and the price may fluctuate between 120000 - 126000. The medium - term supply was loose, restricting the upside [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 120000 - 126000 [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [35]. - Raw materials: The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel - iron price was strong, and the chrome - iron price was weak [35][37]. - Supply: The estimated stainless - steel production in August increased month - on - month [36]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased slightly [36]. - Logic: The price decreased slightly, the cost was supportive, but the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 13000 - 13500 [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 13000 - 13500 [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The upstream was bullish [37]. - Supply: The lithium carbonate production in July increased, and the production in August is expected to increase [38]. - Demand: The demand was optimistic, and the cell orders were okay [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased, the upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely. The fundamentals were in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate around 85,000. It is recommended to wait and see and go long on dips [40]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see cautiously and go long lightly on dips [41]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The steel futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreased [42]. - Cost and profit: The cost increased, but the steel price also rose, and the steel mill profit increased. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - Supply: The iron - element production from January to July increased year - on - year. The current iron - water production was stable, and the scrap - steel consumption increased. The rebar production increased, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased [42]. - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products from January to July was basically flat year - on - year. The current apparent demand decreased [43]. - Inventory: The inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the increase in trader inventory [43]. - Viewpoint: The steel price was supported by the small increase in steel mill inventory. The 10 - contract price may fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, paying attention to the support levels of 3400 for hot - rolled coil and 3200 for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased slightly [45]. - Futures: The near - month 2509 contract increased, and the main 2601 contract remained unchanged [45]. - Basis: The basis of different iron - ore varieties was provided [45]. - Demand: The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased [45]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment and port arrival decreased this week [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average port clearance increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [46]. - Viewpoint: The 09 contract fluctuated. The iron - ore price may follow the steel price. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [46]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking - coal futures price decreased, and the spot price of some coal varieties was loose, while the Mongolian coal price was stable [47][49]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased, and the production and inventory decreased [47][48]. - Demand: The coking and blast - furnace operating rates were stable, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Inventory: The overall coking - coal inventory was at a medium level, with the coal - mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [48]. - Viewpoint: The coking - coal market was stable. There was an expectation of coal - mine production restriction in August. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [49][50]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures price decreased, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented. The port price followed the increase [51][52]. - Supply: The coke production was stable, and the coal - mine复产 was less than expected [51][52]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was supportive [52]. - Inventory: The coking - plant inventory decreased, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [52]. - Viewpoint: The coke market was in short supply, but the previous bullish expectations were over - exhausted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [52]. Agricultural Products Meal - Spot: On August 13, the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices increased. The soybean meal trading volume decreased, and the rapeseed meal trading volume was zero [53][54]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's August supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean planting area and ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean and soybean meal exports in August were expected to increase, while the EU soybean imports from July to August 10 decreased [54][55]. - Outlook: The Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% margin on Canadian rapeseed imports. The US soybean price rose, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [55]. Live Pigs - Spot: The live - pig spot price was stable, and the downstream procurement was smooth. The breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices [56]. - Data: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows decreased, and the inventory of breeding sows increased slightly [56]. - Outlook: The current supply and demand were weak. The long - term 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly, but also pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - Spot: On August 13, the corn prices in Northeast China decreased slightly, and the prices in North China were stable. The port prices were stable or increased slightly [58]. - Fundamentals: The corn inventory in the four northern ports decreased, and the inventory in the Guangdong port also decreased [59]. - Outlook: The corn futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the overall sentiment was weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. In the long term, pay attention to the new - season corn growth [59].

Group 1 - The positive changes in the consumption market will benefit the valuation recovery of the consumption sector, enhancing performance growth expectations for companies supported by policy and market demand [1] - The investment attractiveness of the consumption sector is expected to increase further, boosting investor confidence and attracting more capital inflow [1] Group 2 - In July, the PPI decline in industries such as coal, steel, cement, photovoltaic, and lithium batteries has narrowed, while CPI for fuel and new energy vehicles has stabilized after several months of decline [2] - To consolidate the foundation for moderate price recovery, it is necessary to strengthen policy coordination on both supply and demand sides, promoting industrial upgrades and demand creation [2] - On the supply side, improving standards for technology, energy consumption, and emissions is essential to phase out outdated capacity and replace it with high-quality capacity [2] Group 3 - The new consumption sector is expected to further contribute to domestic demand, particularly through the acceleration of service consumption potential, innovation in consumption scenarios and channels, and the emergence of the emotional economy [3] - The "self-care economy" trend is driving growth in new sectors such as light luxury, trendy toys, pet care, and fitness, becoming new engines for industrial upgrades and economic growth [3] Group 4 - The implementation of policies like "old for new" has led to positive changes in the consumption market, with suggestions to expand subsidy coverage to essential goods and services [4] - The focus should also be on balancing the pace of subsidy distribution to ensure policy continuity and optimize financial support and tax incentives [4] - The emotional economy-related sectors in the A-share market have shown active performance, indicating high market recognition of their growth potential [4] Group 5 - The younger consumer group increasingly values "emotional value" and "cultural identity," making "emotional price ratio" a significant factor in their purchasing decisions [5] - The rise of national brands and cultural exports is driving high growth in sectors like trendy toys and IP derivatives, with companies that possess brand advantages and innovation capabilities standing out [5]