期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 走势评级： 镍——观望 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 菲律宾再传禁矿消息 可靠度众说纷纭 报告内容摘要: [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 5 月 12 日 [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【菲律宾禁镍出口 印尼冶炼业恐陷"原料荒"】菲律宾政府 计划自 2025 年 6 月起实施镍矿出口禁令，预计将重创印尼镍冶炼产业。印 尼镍矿协会（APNI）矿业顾问委员会成员 Djoko Widajatno5 月 7 日表示， 尽管印尼是全球最大镍生产国，但国内多家冶炼厂仍依赖菲律宾镍矿供应， 尤其是对本土日渐稀缺的高品位镍矿。这种依赖性使莫罗瓦利、韦达湾等 工业园区的冶炼厂面临供应链断裂风险。2024 年印尼从菲律宾进口约 1000 万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak". Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and trend weakly in the medium - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the subsequent processing fees still have a trend of rising steadily. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the smelting revenue including by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is close to 1000 yuan/ton. At the same time, smelter raw material and port ore inventories are at relatively high levels, and the smelting start - up rate has generally increased in the second quarter. However, in May, smelters in regions such as Yunnan are under maintenance and shut - down, and the output may decrease by more than 10,000 tons compared with April [7]. - Consumption is gradually transitioning to a slack stage, and the downstream replenishment space is limited. In terms of terminal consumption by sector, power towers are still relatively strong, while other sectors are relatively dull. After the previous sharp price decline, the downstream had a strong willingness to replenish raw materials, which to some extent reduced the subsequent demand space. It is expected that the apparent consumption peaked in April and will show a high - level contraction trend, putting pressure on the upper price limit [7]. - Fundamentally, it shows weak supply and demand. The supply - side production cuts and low social inventories support the near - end price. However, there is still an expectation of increased supply in the far - end, the inflection point of social inventories may come, and it will still operate weakly in the medium - and long - term, and the term spread also faces convergence pressure. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, the profit - loss ratio of domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage is appropriate, but attention should be paid to structural losses [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,260 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,655.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 140,017 lots, an increase of 24,655 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 119,170 lots, an increase of 13,174 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 last Friday was 6,713 lots, an increase of 1,517 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 213,170 lots, an increase of 4,608 lots [8]. - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium last Friday was - 26.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.96 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The SHFE zinc basis showed different changes in different regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory last week was 1,903 tons, a decrease of 451 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE zinc inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The bonded - area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. The social inventory was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons [8]. 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has risen to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. The port inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at relatively high levels, while the seven - region inventory and smelter finished - product inventory are relatively low [10][11]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level. Smelting profit has recovered and is at a historical medium level. The profit of galvanized pipe enterprises is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Start - up Rate**: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The refined zinc monthly start - up rate has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a historically low level [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined from a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE Zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short - term and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The global zinc visible inventory has decreased [25][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same historical period [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [41][44]. 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49]. - **Downstream**: The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly recovered, and most are at a medium - low level in the same historical period. The downstream raw material inventory and finished - product inventory show different trends in different sectors [50][52]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - In Europe, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries also varies [63].

集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 9 日星期五 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...

商品日报 20250509 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美英达成有限贸易协议，市场风险偏好提振 海外方面，美英达成有限贸易协议：保留对英 10%的基准关税、扩大双方市场准入、取 消对英钢铝关税、对美农产品实行 0 关税、对英汽车进口实行阶梯关税；特朗普在新闻发布 会直呼"现在最好买入股票"，市场风险偏好显著回升，美股、加密货币反弹，美元指数站 稳 100 上方，美债利率上行至 4.37%，金价下跌超 1%，油价、铜价收涨。 国内方面，A 股缩量上涨，两市成交额回落至 1.32 万亿，创业板、小微盘股表现较优， 军工、光模块等板块领涨，上证指数已修复 4 月对等关税宣布来的跌幅，在二季度增量政策 已落地、中美贸易即将进入谈判期的背景下，关注资金的追涨意愿。债市方面，降准降息后 资金面显著转松，长短端利率均走低，利率曲线继续走陡，近期关注 4 月外贸数据、金融数 据及物价数据。 贵金属：经贸关系缓和，金价延续调整 周四国际贵金属期货双双收跌，COMEX ...

Industry Overview - China's zinc concentrate production has shown a decline overall, stabilizing around 3.5 million tons since 2020. In 2023, domestic zinc concentrate production reached 3.69 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. However, in 2024, production is expected to decrease to 3.4688 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 6.12% [1][10] - The supply situation for zinc ore in 2024 is significantly below expectations due to adjustments in mining plans, declining ore grades, and weather conditions. Advances in exploration technology, such as deep exploration techniques, are expected to uncover more zinc resources, providing a resource base for increased zinc concentrate production [1][10] Industry Chain Definition and Classification - The zinc mining industry encompasses a complete system from resource exploration to end-product application. The upstream focuses on exploration and mining, the midstream is dedicated to smelting and processing, and the downstream involves the application and recycling of zinc products across various industries [3] Development History - The development of China's zinc mining industry has gone through three stages: initial establishment, rapid growth, and integration upgrade. Initially, the industry was weak and relied on imports, but it gradually achieved self-sufficiency. After the reform and opening up, the industry experienced rapid growth with significant improvements in mining and smelting technologies. In the 21st century, the industry began to integrate and upgrade, focusing on technological innovation and resource recycling [5][6] Current Development Status - China is one of the world's major zinc resource countries, with proven zinc reserves ranking among the top globally. As of 2023, China's zinc reserves reached 59.9271 million tons, with significant concentrations in regions such as Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Qinghai [8][12] Key Enterprises Analysis - The competitive landscape of China's zinc mining industry is diverse and intense. Key players include: - Chihong Zn & Ge Co., Ltd., which has a complete industry chain and leading technology in zinc mining and processing [14][16] - Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company, which has a strong resource reserve and comprehensive industry chain layout [14][16] - Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd., focusing on high-quality zinc smelting and processing [14][16] - Zijin Mining Group, a global mining giant with advanced technology and a global business network [14][16] Future Development Trends - Intelligent mining and ore selection are becoming important trends in the zinc mining industry, utilizing advanced technologies such as big data and AI to optimize mining processes [20] - The development of green smelting technology is crucial for sustainable development, focusing on energy conservation and resource recycling [21][22] - Extending the industry chain and enhancing product added value are key directions for transformation and upgrading, allowing companies to diversify and improve profitability [23]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-08 锌锭库存低位制约锌价下跌空间 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-39.30 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌90元/吨至22770元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨55元/吨至515元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌140元/吨至22770 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至515元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌140元/ 吨至22760元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至505元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-07沪锌主力合约开于22300元/吨，收于22210元/吨，较前一交易日下跌210元/吨，全天交易日 成交155956手，较前一交易日增加40900手，全天交易日持仓116701手，较前一交易日增加4986手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22530元/吨，最低点达到22210元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-06，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.41万吨，较上周同期减少-0.18万吨。截止2025-05-07，LME 锌库存为171400吨，较上一交易日减少15 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 锌价冲高乏力 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-33.73 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌300元/吨至22880元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨80元/吨至450元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌330元/吨至22910 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨50元/吨至480元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌300元 /吨至22960元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨80元/吨至530元/吨。 期货方面：2025-04-28沪锌主力合约开于22630元/吨，收于22520元/吨，较前一交易日下跌225元/吨，全天交易日 成交149791手，较前一交易日减少53425手，全天交易日持仓117883手，较前一交易日减少4544手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22650元/吨，最低点达到22380元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-04-28，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.59万吨，较上周同期减少-0.71万吨。截止2025-04-28，LME 锌库存为179325吨，较上一交易日减少725吨。 市 ...

一、主要会计数据和财务指标 | 报告期指标 | 2024年年报 | 2023年年报 | 本年比上年增减(%) | 2022年年报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本每股收益（元） | 0.2512 | -0.2356 | 206.62 | 0.4505 | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.02 | 3.48 | 15.52 | 3.79 | | 每股公积金(元) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.02 | | 每股未分配利润(元) | 3.32 | 3.07 | 8.14 | 3.31 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | - | - | - | - | | 营业收入(亿元) | 16.39 | 14.68 | 11.65 | 19.73 | | 净利润(亿元) | 2.3 | -2.15 | 206.98 | 4.12 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 6.70 | -6.43 | 204.2 | 13.19 | 数据四舍五入，查看更多财务数据>> | 名称 持有数量(万股) | | 占总股本比例 | 增减情况(万 | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

西藏珠峰（600338）公告，2024年营业收入16.39亿元，同比增长11.64%。归属于上市公司股东的净利 润2.3亿元，上年为亏损2.15亿元。公司董事会建议2024年度股利分配预案为每10股派发现金红利0.55元 (含税)，不实施送股及转增。 ...

沪锌：库存快速去化，现货有所支撑 研究员：潘保龙 投资咨询号：Z0019697 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 目 录 第一部分：核心观点 第二部分：产业基本面供给端 第三部分：产业基本面消费端 第四部分：其他指标 核心观点 全球锌精矿产量 万吨 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2019年 2020年 2021年 2022年 2023年 2024年 2025年 锌矿加工费-年度国际长协基准价 $300 $194 $250 $229 $191 $210 $223 $245 $203 $172 $147 $245 $300 $159 $230 $274 $165 $80 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 产业基本面-供给端 2.2 锌精矿进口量及加工费 ◆ 国内1-3月累计进口锌精矿121.77万实物吨，同比增加36.64%，进口矿进口量环比回升，助推加工费上调。 ◆ 截止4月25日，根据SMM，进口矿加工费报40美元/吨，国产矿加工费报3450元/吨，国产、进 ...