Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report's Core View - The overall situation of the commodity futures agricultural products sector is under pressure, with most varieties showing a weak - oscillating trend [5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and soybean meal inventory is high. The high oil mill operating rate weakens cost support. The market doubts China's ability to complete the 12 - million - ton US soybean procurement target by the end of the year, and the strong expected South American soybean harvest weakens the cost support of US soybean futures for domestic soybeans. There are dual pressures of supply surplus and weak demand. Although the arbitrage of buying oil and selling meal provides temporary support, the key support at 3000 yuan/ton is crucial, and if broken, the downside space will open [5] For Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly, with a reference view of oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: Malaysian palm oil futures are dragged down by external edible oil markets and volatile crude oil prices. Weak export data and the expected inventory build - up in November add short - term inventory pressure. Its trend is closely linked to US soybean oil and the international oil and fat sector, and the biodiesel policy is a key variable [7] For Other Varieties (Brief Summary) - **Soybean Oil 2601**: Influenced by US soybean cost support, US biodiesel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] - **Palm 2601**: Affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, major producers' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT soybean January contract rose 4 to close at 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to close at 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 80 to 2510 yuan per ton, a 3.09% decrease [4][7]. - The higher - than - expected soybean crushing volume in the US in October and optimistic export expectations led to a significant strengthening of the outer market at the beginning of the week. As private exporters reported continuous purchases of US soybeans by China, with a cumulative purchase volume of 1.584 million tons during the week, the export expectations were fulfilled and US soybeans declined. The import cost dropped, the spot supply was sufficient, the previously worried about long - term supply gap was filled, downstream buyers purchased a large number of long - term basis contracts, and the Dalian soybean meal futures prices declined from high levels. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of seasonal demand and declined during the week [4][7]. - Precipitation increased in the central and western regions of Brazil, which was beneficial for improving soil moisture; the Argentine产区 was relatively dry, which was conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture was acceptable. Positive expectations for South American crop yields were maintained. Last week, private exporters reported a total of 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China, effectively supplementing the domestic soybean supply for the December - January shipping period. The trading volume of long - term basis contracts increased. With lower costs, sufficient spot supply, and alleviated concerns about long - term supply, soybean meal prices declined from high levels. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 4 to 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans fell 10 to 491 dollars per ton, a 2.00% decrease; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 3 to 497 dollars per ton, a 0.60% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market increased 204.75 to 47.01 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 21 to 581 yuan per ton; the East China soybean meal spot price fell 40 to 3000 yuan per ton, a 1.32% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference increased 30 to - 22 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Market**: The US soybean harvest rate as of November 16, 2025, was 95%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 96%. Private exporters reported 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China for the 2025/2026 market year. The net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 year as of October 2 was 919,400 tons, in line with expectations. The US soybean crushing gross profit in the week of November 14, 2025, was 2.81 dollars per bushel, up from 2.02 dollars per bushel the previous week. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 338.4 dollars per short ton, up from 322.08 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 51.58 cents per pound, up from 48.02 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.15 dollars per bushel, up from 11.14 dollars per bushel the previous week. In October, the US soybean crushing volume was 227.647 million bushels, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024, also breaking the monthly crushing record set in December 2024. As of October 31, the NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory rose to 1.305 billion pounds, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [8][9]. - **South American Market**: As of November 15, 2025, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 69% (Conab data), and 71% (AgRural data), but lagging behind last year's 80% due to irregular rainfall. Brazil is expected to export 4.71 million tons of soybeans in November, up from 4.26 million tons the previous week. As of November 19, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 24.6%. In the next 15 days, precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, but the increase in precipitation in the central and western regions is beneficial for soil moisture; precipitation in Argentina will decrease in the next two weeks, which is conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture is sufficient [10]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease of 142,400 tons from the previous week but an increase of 2.1711 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 992,900 tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous week but an increase of 214,300 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 5.3507 million tons, a decrease of 650,800 tons from the previous week but an increase of 965,400 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.926 million tons, a decrease of 408,000 tons from the previous week but an increase of 3.0947 million tons from the same period last year. As of November 21, 2025, the national daily average trading volume of soybean meal was 242,600 tons, including 70,960 tons of spot trading and 171,640 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 222,860 tons the previous week; the daily average soybean meal pickup volume was 190,360 tons, up from 183,700 tons the previous week; the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3344 million tons, up from 2.0776 million tons the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.98 days, up from 7.74 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Secex reported that Brazil exported 2.3021241 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 230,212.4 tons, a 71% increase from the daily average export volume in November last year. The total export volume in November last year was 2.5530339 million tons [13]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be a record - high 177.7 million tons (previously estimated at 178.5 million tons), higher than 172.1 million tons in the previous year. The soybean crushing volume in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 60.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 58.5 million tons in the previous year. The Brazilian soybean export volume in 2026 is expected to reach 111 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 109 million tons in 2025 [13]. - As of November 17, the soybean sowing rate in Paraná state was 92%, up 6 percentage points from the previous week but lower than 96% last year. The growth of soybeans improved slightly, with 92% of the evaluated areas in good condition. According to the latest estimate, the soybean harvest in Paraná state in the 2025/2026 season is estimated to be 21.96 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [14]. - As of November 16, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/2026 year were 1.08 million tons, compared with 1.32 million tons last year; soybean imports were 4.4 million tons, compared with 5.25 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 6.74 million tons, compared with 7.37 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 1.4 million tons, compared with 2.44 million tons last year [14]. - S&P Global Energy predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would be reduced by 3.8% compared with 2025 to 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres; the soybean planting area would be increased by 4% to 84.5 million acres, an increase of 3.4 million acres [15]. - Safras& Mercado estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be 178.76 million tons, a reduction of more than 2 million tons from the September forecast. The soybean production is still expected to reach a record high, a 4% increase from the previous year. In Tocantins state, the yield potential decreased from 3800 kg/ha to 3660 kg/ha, with an expected output of about 5.7 million tons. In Paraná state, due to adverse weather conditions such as tornadoes, the production estimate was adjusted to 21.7 million tons, still higher than the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.4% to 48.31 million hectares [15]. - As of November 12, Argentine farmers sold 533,500 tons of 2024/2025 season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 39.3662 million tons [16]. - The soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, "steadily" advanced last week, reaching 43% of the estimated planting area, but still lagging behind last year and the five - year average [16]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the trends of US soybean futures contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rates, regional soybean crushing profits, management fund CBOT net positions, regional soybean meal spot prices, soybean meal spot - futures price differences, soybean meal 1 - 5 month spread, South American soybean产区 precipitation and temperature, Brazilian and Argentine soybean sowing progress, US soybean sales and export volume, US oil mill crushing profits, soybean meal trading and pickup volume, port and oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, oil mill soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [17 - 47].

Core Viewpoint - The corn futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with a weekly increase of 0.60% in prices, while supply pressures are gradually easing due to consumption of existing stocks [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the main corn futures contract closed at 2195 CNY/ton, with a weekly trading range between 2162 CNY/ton and 2205 CNY/ton, and an increase in open interest by 2138 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly opening price was 2188 CNY/ton, indicating a stable trading environment [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The USDA reported net corn export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year at 2.2597 million tons, a significant increase from the previous week's 1.3948 million tons [2] - National corn inventory among 96 major processing enterprises was recorded at 2.727 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.29% [2] - The corn prices in the Bayuquan Port region for new corn with 15% moisture content ranged from 2170 to 2175 CNY/ton, showing a decrease of 10 CNY/ton from the previous day [2] Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures noted that while supply pressures are easing, the fourth quarter's supply capacity remains sufficient, and the market is observing the selling sentiment among farmers [3] - Dongwu Futures highlighted that feed enterprises are experiencing low inventory levels, which, combined with strong demand from downstream sectors, is leading to a tightening supply situation and a rebound in spot prices [3] - The overall grain selling progress is at 22%, which is faster than the same period last year, indicating a robust selling pace [3]

2025年11月23日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 | 2 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆，盘面或震荡 | 8 | | 豆一：关注豆类市场情绪，盘面震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 13 | | 白糖：关注进口政策变化 | 19 | | 棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势 | 26 | | 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 33 | | 花生：关注油厂入市情况 | 39 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：市场担忧马来四季度产量仍大，同时缺乏 B50 和美豆油的有效需求故事，周度仍维持震荡运 行，但随着高频数据的逐步公布有二次下探趋势，棕榈油 01 合约周跌 ...

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 0.09% to 30.1329 points, with a cumulative decline of 0.61% for the week [1] Summary by Category Corn - CBOT corn futures remained flat at $4.3775 per bushel, with a cumulative decline of 1.41% for the week [1] Wheat - CBOT wheat futures rose by 0.28% to $5.4225 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.14% for the week [1] Soybeans - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.36% to $11.2650 per bushel, with a cumulative increase of 0.18% for the week [1] - Soymeal futures experienced a cumulative decline of 1.48%, while soybean oil futures saw a cumulative increase of 0.24% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Beans meal (short - term), Rapeseed meal (short - term), Rapeseed oil (short - term), Cotton (medium - to - long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Palm oil, Red dates, Live pigs (near - term) [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean oil, Cotton (short - term) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans meal**: Short - term consolidation, look for short - term long opportunities after adjustment, focus on Brazilian soybean planting weather [1][3] - **Rapeseed meal**: Short - term stop - falling and consolidation, with a tendency to rebound, pay attention to the follow - up progress of China - Canada trade [1][6] - **Palm oil**: Weak consolidation, with inventory accumulation expected in November, hold off on going long for now [1][8] - **Soybean oil**: Short - term oscillation, limited adjustment space, look for long opportunities after adjustment [1] - **Rapeseed oil**: Short - term bullish, fundamental is strong, be cautious about shorting [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish, short - term weak oscillation, consider range trading; medium - to - long - term, look for low - buying opportunities [1][12] - **Red dates**: Rebound under pressure, maintain a bearish attitude in the long - run, short - term wait - and - see [1][14] - **Live pigs**: Oscillate weakly in the near - term, consider rolling short - selling and reverse arbitrage; may enter a new cycle after H2 2026 [1][17] 3. Summaries by Variety Beans meal - **Market situation**: Futures price is 3017 yuan/ton, down 0.17%; national average spot price is 3079.71 yuan/ton, down 0.39% [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 992.6 million tons, down 40.8 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 747.71 million tons, down 1.87%; bean meal inventory is 99.29 million tons, down 0.57% [3] - **Analysis**: Brazilian rainfall is expected to be slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days. Spot oil mills' sales pressure is down. US - China soybean import tariff issue remains unresolved. Look for short - term long opportunities after adjustment [1][3] Rapeseed meal - **Market situation**: Futures price is 2412 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; national average spot price is 2500.53 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 0 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory is 0.2 million tons, down 0.3 million tons week - on - week [6] - **Analysis**: Canada can't cancel tariffs on China, new Australian rapeseed will arrive at the port on November 22, bearish for market sentiment. But the contract rebounded after short - sellers took profits. It may stop falling and rebound [1][6] Palm oil - **Market situation**: Futures price is 8646 yuan/ton, down 2.33%; national average price is 8755 yuan/ton, down 1.16% [7] - **Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, national commercial inventory is 65.32 million tons, up 9.36% week - on - week [8] - **Analysis**: Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 20 days of November weakened, price fell. Inventory accumulation is expected in November, hold off on going long [1][8] Cotton - **Market situation**: Futures price of main contract (CF2601) is 13465 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; US cotton main contract is 63.78 cents/pound, down 0.15% [9] - **Inventory**: National commercial inventory is 328.24 million tons, up 43 million tons; Xinjiang commercial inventory is 270.51 million tons, up 39 million tons [9] - **Analysis**: USDA's negative data increased the global stock - to - use ratio, pressuring US cotton. Domestic supply is high, but new cotton sales are fast. Short - term range trading, medium - to - long - term low - buying [1][12] Red dates - **Market situation**: Futures price of main contract (CJ2601) is 9300 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [13] - **Inventory**: 36 sample enterprises' inventory is 9840 tons, up 299 tons week - on - week [13][14] - **Analysis**: New jujube production is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons, supply is excessive. Maintain a bearish attitude, short - term wait - and - see [1][14] Live pigs - **Market situation**: Futures price of main contract (lh2601) is 11440 yuan/ton, down 1.04%; national average spot price is 11810 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [15] - **Inventory**: National sample enterprise pig inventory is 3844.62 million heads, up 0.15%; slaughter volume is 11.9653 million heads, up 11.85% [15] - **Analysis**: Near - term supply is loose, Q4 will see cost - based competition. Long - term, a new cycle may start after H2 2026 [1][17]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) continue to decline, with the current price at 63.75 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.05% from the previous trading session [1]. Group 1: Cotton Futures Market Overview - On November 20, the ICE cotton futures opened at 63.97 cents per pound, reached a high of 64.40 cents, a low of 63.63 cents, and closed at 63.81 cents, marking a decrease of 0.25% [2]. - The latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) indicates that as of October 17, the number of unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton was 46,720 contracts, a decrease of 372 contracts from the previous week. Unpriced buy orders totaled 111,971 contracts, down by 1,000 contracts [2]. - The ICE cotton futures contract saw a reduction in unpriced contracts for sellers, with 11,129 contracts reported, a decrease of 2,029 contracts from the prior week [2]. Group 2: Export Sales Data - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, for the week ending October 2, net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 199,000 bales, an increase from 155,400 bales the previous week. For the 2026/2027 marketing year, net sales were reported at zero bales, down from 44,100 bales the prior week [2]. - On November 20, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported 4,650 cotton futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 14 receipts compared to the previous trading day [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market has a mixed situation with limited downside in prices due to farmers' reluctance to sell and support from the grain depot's purchase price, but the upward trend is restricted by weak downstream demand [1][2] - The peanut market is currently characterized by low - level fluctuations. The supply has not been fully released, and the demand is generally weak, but the start of procurement by Qingdao Yihai Kerry provides some support [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soy - one 2601 contract yesterday was 4,107.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 38.00 yuan/ton or - 0.92% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 7, a change of + 38 or 32.14% from the previous day. The prices of first - class protein soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable [1] - Market situation: Northeast new - season soybean prices are firm, but the sales of grain trading enterprises are average. The price is expected to remain stable after the repayment of grain [1] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract yesterday was 7,788.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan/ton or - 0.08% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 7,980.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 - 788.00, a change of + 6.00 or - 0.76% from the previous day. The national average price of general peanut kernels decreased by 0.01 yuan/jin. Some oil mills lowered their purchase prices, and the arrival volume was average [3] - Market situation: The effective supply of peanuts in the producing areas has not been fully released, with price differentiation in Henan and low selling enthusiasm in the Northeast. The demand is weak overall, but Qingdao Yihai Kerry's procurement provides some support [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][6] Core Views - Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification, but long - term cotton prices are optimistic due to low initial inventory and consumption resilience [3] - Global sugar production is in a surplus pattern, and the downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited due to cost support and policy factors [4][5] - The pulp market has insufficient fundamental improvement, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,465 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,563 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1098, up 26 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,791 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1326, up 32 from the previous day [1] - India's clothing export value in October 2025 was 1.069 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.88% and a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. As of November 17, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 99.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points, 0.3 percentage points slower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA November report was bearish, increasing global cotton production, consumption, and ending stocks in the 2025/26 season. The Northern Hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak, so the short - term external market is expected to be under pressure [2] - Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded, but the new cotton is still expected to increase in production overall. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" was not prosperous, and now it is the off - season of the textile industry, with insufficient demand support [2] Strategy - Be neutral. Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure, but in the long - term, cotton prices can be optimistically viewed after the seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The sugar 2601 contract closed at 5366 yuan/ton yesterday, down 15 yuan/ton (- 0.28%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5555 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR01 + 189, down 30 from the previous day [3] - In October 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premix were 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,300 tons. From January to October 2025, the total imports were 1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 963,600 tons [3] Market Analysis - Globally, the sugar production in Brazil, India, and Thailand is expected to increase, suppressing the market. In the short - term, the decline space of raw sugar is limited, and in the long - term, the rebound momentum is restricted [4] - In China, the new sugar season has a strong expectation of increased production, but the price has fallen to near the sugar - making cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price. The stricter syrup control policy also supports the sugar price [4] Strategy - Be neutral. The short - term supply pressure is large, and pay attention to the support at around 5350 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The pulp 2601 contract closed at 5298 yuan/ton yesterday, down 98 yuan/ton (- 1.82%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5510 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 + 212, up 58 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 5090 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP01 - 208, up 63 from the previous day [5] - The import wood pulp spot market price was weakly adjusted yesterday, with some brand prices in different regions falling [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply was still loose [6] - In terms of demand, the pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price [6] Strategy - Be neutral. The fundamental improvement of pulp is insufficient, and pay attention to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in the prices of corn, wheat, and soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) due to slowing trade demand and high prices affecting competitiveness in the global market [1][2] Group 2 - On November 20, 2023, corn futures for March 2026 closed at $4.4150 per bushel, down 8.00 cents or 1.78% from the previous trading day [1] - Wheat futures for March 2026 closed at $5.4150 per bushel, also down 8.00 cents or 1.46% [1] - Soybean futures for January 2026 closed at $11.2300 per bushel, decreasing by 13.25 cents or 1.17% [1] Group 3 - The USDA reported that for the week ending October 2, U.S. wheat export sales were 32.6 million bushels, corn export sales were 89 million bushels, and soybean export sales were 33.8 million bushels, exceeding market expectations [1] - Cumulative export sales for the current crop year show U.S. wheat at 545 million bushels (up 108 million bushels year-on-year), corn at 1.157 billion bushels (up 462 million bushels year-on-year), and soybeans at 470 million bushels (down 265 million bushels year-on-year) [2] Group 4 - Brazil's grain export association (ANEC) reported that soybean meal exports in November are expected to reach a record 2.7 million tons, setting a new monthly export high [2]