Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product sector is generally weak. Two types of meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oils have declined. Sugar has tumbled, and the downward space may continue to expand. Each variety has different influencing factors and future trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Both the main 2601 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have declined significantly, with rapeseed meal leading the decline. The supply is abundant, and the demand has turned weak. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position is recommended [2]. - In September 2025, the import of soybeans was 12.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The soybean inventory has increased, and the meal inventory may continue to rise. The aquaculture of rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the downstream pick - up has basically stagnated [2]. - The support and resistance levels of the soybean meal 2601 contract are 2883 and 2920 respectively, and those of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract are 2330 and 2374 respectively [2]. Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has continued to decline in a volatile manner, pressured by technical selling. Technically, it is weak, and short - term trading is recommended [3][6]. - The October MPOB palm oil supply - demand report is bearish. In late September, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased by 7.2% to 2.36 million tons, higher than expected. In early October, the production increased by 6.59% month - on - month [3]. - The support and resistance levels of the palm oil 2601 contract are 9280 and 9400 respectively [6]. Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has rebounded technically, but the downward trend has not been reversed. The short position should be held [7]. - The live pig price has continued to fall under the bearish fundamental pressure. After falling to a low level, some short - sellers have covered their positions. The supply - demand situation remains bearish, and the consumption has declined after the festival [7]. - The support and resistance levels of the live pig 2511 contract are 11200 and 11570 respectively [7]. Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has fluctuated at a low level, pressured by the new corn harvest. Technically, it is weak, and a light - short position is recommended [9]. - The new corn harvest is gradually realized, and the spot price has fallen across the board. The futures price has been pressured downwards, but there has been a large amount of short - covering at the low level [9]. - The support and resistance levels of the corn 2511 contract are 2076 and 2100 respectively [9]. Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs has rebounded at a low level, boosted by short - covering. However, the supply is still loose, and the rebound space may be limited. Profitable short positions should be reduced, and short - selling can be considered after the rebound meets resistance [11]. - The egg price has rebounded for two consecutive days due to short - sellers' profit - taking. The terminal replenishment has improved slightly, but the egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high [11]. - The support and resistance levels of the egg 2511 contract are 2820 and 2875 respectively [11]. Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has continued to decline in a volatile manner, pressured by sufficient supply. Short - term trading is recommended [13]. - In September 2025, the import of soybeans was 12.87 million tons, hitting a record high. The domestic oil mill crushing volume has remained high, and the soybean oil inventory has been at a high level. There may be phased inventory accumulation after the festival [13]. - The support and resistance levels of the soybean oil 2601 contract are 8200 and 8300 respectively [13]. Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the rebound has been blocked. Short - term trading is recommended [15]. - The new cotton in the Xinjiang main production area has entered the peak harvest period, the supply is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the commercial inventory has increased slightly [15]. - The support and resistance levels of the cotton 2601 contract are 13200 and 13370 respectively [15]. Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar has tumbled, dragged down by the sharp decline in the external market. A light - short position is recommended [17]. - The overseas sugar production is high, and the supply surplus is obvious. The domestic sugar consumption has entered the off - season, and there are multiple sugar sources in the market [17]. - The support and resistance levels of the sugar 2601 contract are 5382 and 5450 respectively [17]. Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has fluctuated narrowly at a high level, showing a strong trend. A light - long position is recommended [19]. - The apple picking in Shaanxi has been受阻, and the high - quality apple price is stable. The late - maturing Fuji apples in Shandong have not been fully listed, and some merchants have gone to Liaoning to purchase [19]. - The support and resistance levels of the apple 2601 contract are 8650 and 8720 respectively [19]. Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates has continued to oscillate narrowly, and the listing rhythm of new dates affects the market. A light - long position is recommended [22]. - The new dates in the Xinjiang main production area are about to be harvested, and the inventory of old dates is slowly decreasing but still much higher than last year [22]. - The support and resistance levels of the red date 2601 contract are 10990 and 11160 respectively [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans (Domestic): ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Corn: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★, implying a clear bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆, showing a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides insights into supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies for each product [2][3][4] - The report suggests that while some products face supply and demand challenges, others show potential for price increases or are in a state of weak oscillation. Investors are advised to pay attention to policy changes, international trade relations, and seasonal factors [6][7][8] Summary by Product Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a consolidation state after a rebound. The recent auction had a 66.3%成交 rate with an average price of 3900 yuan/ton. Domestic soybeans are stronger than imported ones, and the price difference is widening. Concerns about US soybean export demand may pressure US soybean prices [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of domestic soybean meal futures decreased by 1.16% today. As of October 10, the inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills was 812 million tons, showing an increase. Domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be a shortage in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations worsen. US soybean sales are slow, and relevant policies are delayed. It is advisable to wait and observe [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil followed the general decline of most commodities today. However, from the perspective of the oil - meal ratio, oils are still stronger than meals. The US soybean price is expected to be pressured by weak demand. The Malaysian palm oil market has weak demand and inventory pressure, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. It is recommended to buy oils at low prices after the price bottoms out [4][5] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures declined today and were among the top decliners in the oil - seed sector. The macro - economic sentiment has a greater impact than the fundamentals. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply is abundant, and rapeseed is not cost - effective in the demand side. It is recommended to use rapeseed as a short - position in cross - competitor strategies. Canadian rapeseed prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the domestic rapeseed market will likely oscillate weakly [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are oscillating widely at the bottom. The new corn harvest in the northeast may lead to a price decline, but the winter wheat price increase may have an impact. The corn price is currently weak at the bottom, and a policy - based bottom is approaching [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market rebounded with increased positions. The decline of the spot price has slowed down, and some areas have seen a price rebound. Although the current price is at the bottom historically, there are no obvious bullish factors in the fundamentals. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, which will support the futures contracts of the second half of next year [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs has mixed trends, with some areas rising and others falling. The futures market shows a rebound in the near - term contracts and a decline in the far - term contracts. The mid - term egg price bottom has not been determined, and the industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old hens. It is recommended to hold a short position in the near - term contracts and a long position in the far - term contracts [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Apple: Neutral to bullish [3] - Red dates: Neutral [7] Core Views - Apple prices are oscillating downward, and red dates' futures and spot prices are stable but weak. For apples, the supply of new-season late Fuji is limited due to weather, and prices are expected to show a significant polarization. For red dates, the new season's harvest is approaching, and the market is in a transition period with relatively stable prices and uncertain future trends [1][2][3][4][6][7] Market News and Key Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8,638 yuan/ton, a change of -106 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.21%. - Spot: The price of semi-commodity late Fuji above 70 in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 3.85 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was -938, a change of +106 from the previous day. - Recent news: The supply of red late Fuji in the new season's main producing areas is limited. The prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu are 0.5 - 1.0 yuan/jin higher than last year. The demand in the sales areas has not improved after the holidays. Merchants are cautious overall but active in purchasing high-quality goods. This week, the late Fuji in the eastern and western regions will be on the market successively, and the price polarization is obvious [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 11,130 yuan/ton, a change of -15 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.13%. - Spot: The price of first-grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was -1,630, a change of +15 from the previous day. - Recent news: The new-season red dates in the Xinjiang main producing area are about to be harvested, and the harvest time may be about a week earlier than last year. Inland merchants are going to the producing areas to prepare for the new season, and the price range for orchard reservation has expanded [4] Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price oscillated downward. The supply of red late Fuji in the main producing areas was limited due to slow coloring caused by rain. The prices in various regions increased year-on-year, and the price difference between regions and qualities was significant. The demand in the sales areas did not improve after the holidays. Merchants were cautious overall but active in purchasing high-quality goods. This week, the late Fuji in the eastern and western regions will be on the market successively, and the price polarization is obvious. In the future, attention should be paid to the game between merchants' purchasing mentality and fruit farmers' selling mentality [2] Red Dates - The red dates futures price oscillated narrowly yesterday. The red dates are in a critical period of transition between peak and off-peak seasons and "new and old seasons." The grey dates in the Xinjiang main producing area are about to be harvested, and merchants have started to make small-scale orchard reservations. Affected by the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the sales areas' spot market this week is average, with mainly rigid demand from downstream buyers. The spot price fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is relatively light. The inventory depletion rate of 36 sample points is flatter than in previous years, and the inventory pressure remains. The supply-demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The output of red dates in the 2024 production season was large, the inventory was high, but the quality was poor. It is expected that the new-season output will be between 560,000 and 620,000 tons. The growth of red dates has not shown unexpected changes, and the weather is conducive to sugar accumulation and quality improvement. Currently, the quality of red dates is better than the same period last year [6] Strategies Apple - Neutral to bullish. Currently, the late Fuji is sporadically on the market. Affected by the weather, it is difficult to organize a large amount of red goods, and the purchasing period may be shortened. It is expected that the price of high-quality goods will be stable and firm, with obvious polarization [3] Red Dates - Neutral. Overall, if the output and quality are lower than expected, the upward trend of red dates may continue. Otherwise, the red dates futures price will face a situation of limited upward movement and strong support below, showing an oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to consumption, new-season quality, and output changes [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. South American soybean sowing progress is good, with some producing areas setting new records. There are strong expectations of a bumper harvest in North America, and the global soybean supply is sufficient. Palm oil production remains at a relatively high level. Although the biodiesel policy may provide some support for prices, the market is currently a mix of long and short factors, resulting in a volatile market [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,268 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan or 0.41%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 10,022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan or 0.39% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.33% from the previous day, with a spot basis of P01 + -144 yuan, a decrease of 146 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,430 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan or 1.06%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 162 yuan, a decrease of 56 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.10%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 298 yuan, an increase of 29 yuan [1] Market Information Aggregation - Brazilian Crop Sowing: As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop had reached 14%, making it the third - fastest sowing progress in the same period. The current sowing progress is higher than 9% a week ago and 8% in the same period last year. The sowing area of Brazil's 2025/26 first - crop corn has reached 45% of the planned planting area in the central - southern region, higher than 41% in the same period last year [2] - Inventory: As of October 10, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 16,400 tons or 1.31% from the previous week. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 547,600 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous week [2] - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: From October 1 - 10, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.02% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11%, and the output increased by 6.59% [2] - Import Prices: There were various price adjustments for imported agricultural products, including decreases in the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, American and Brazilian soybeans, and some adjustments in the C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, increasing market uncertainty. The new - year production increase expectation suppresses the market, and downstream demand is weak, so short - term cotton prices may continue to decline [3]. - Sugar: Typhoons in China have affected sugarcane production, adding uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, which may support sugar prices. However, the Sino - US trade friction has intensified, and short - term market fluctuations may increase [7]. - Pulp: The tariff war has a negative impact on the macro - level. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,642 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,789 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [1]. - Exports: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.308 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. From January to September 2025, the total exports were 221.686 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.32% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, and the US government shutdown has affected data release. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose [2]. - Domestic: Cotton inventory reduction is fast, but the pre - holiday cotton purchase by ginneries was cautious. The new cotton harvest has accelerated, and the purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - The short - term cotton price has a risk of further decline due to the trade war and production increase expectation [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5470 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Exports: India's 2024/25 sugar exports from February to September 2025 totaled 775,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased year - on - year, suppressing the raw sugar price. The raw sugar price has limited downward space due to ethanol price support [5]. - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales in the peak season were poor, and imports in August hit a new high. Typhoons have affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and the impact on production needs to be tracked [6]. Strategy - The sugar price may be supported by the typhoon - affected production, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify due to trade friction [7]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 4842 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (+1.13%) from the previous day [8]. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of pulp in Shandong showed different trends, with some prices rising and some falling [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have plans to increase prices, reduce production, and transfer production, but the actual impact on supply is limited. Domestic port inventory remains high [9]. - Demand: Global pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale raw material purchases [9]. Strategy - The pulp price may continue to oscillate at the bottom due to the tariff war and weak fundamentals [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn industries is "Cautiously Bearish" [4][7] 2. Report's Core View - The overall trend of the US soybean and domestic bean meal markets is mainly fluctuating due to the lack of data updates caused by the US government shutdown. The domestic downstream soybean supply remains sufficient, and attention should be paid to policy changes. For corn, the overall production has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the new - season corn is listed. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.04%) [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Import Data**: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to September 2025, imports were 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% [2] - **Sowing Progress**: As of October 10, Brazilian farmers had sown 12.48% of the expected soybean planting area for 2025, significantly higher than the 5.28% at the same time last year [2] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The US soybean and domestic bean meal markets lack clear data guidance and are mainly fluctuating. The domestic downstream soybean supply is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is going smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [3] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2092 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.55%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2401 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - **Production Forecast**: The Rosario Grain Exchange expects Argentina's corn production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 61 million tons, higher than the previous year's 50 million tons. As of October 8, the corn sowing progress in Argentina was 25.6%, 7.9% faster than the same period last year [5] - **Export Data**: As of October 10, Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/26 season were 7.19 million tons, lower than 11.739 million tons in the same period last year [5] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In China, the new - season corn in some northeastern regions has started to be listed, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year. However, the overall production has increased, and the purchase price is expected to decline after the concentrated listing. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of grain farmers and the acquisition situation [6] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for some and "oscillating weakly" for others [5][6][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][17][18][20] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products facing downward pressure while others are in a state of oscillation. The macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and policy factors all have an impact on the market [1][5][6][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][17][18][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook for Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: Concerned about the effectiveness of the lower technical support. Due to the pessimistic outlook for US soybean export demand, the market is in an oscillating and downward - adjusting state. Palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory, while domestic soybean oil inventory may peak and decline, and rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decrease. Overall, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] - **Protein Meal**: The sentiment boost is limited, and the market continues to oscillate at a low level. US soybeans are facing challenges in exports, and the domestic supply pressure is large in the short - term, but the demand may increase steadily in the long - term [5][6] - **Corn/Starch**: With the new grain selling pressure coming, the spot price drives the futures price to decline significantly. In the short - term, the market needs to deal with the new grain listing pressure, and in the long - term, it may show a pattern of short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7] - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter volume in October increases, and the pig price is under pressure. In the short - term, the supply pressure increases, and in the long - term, if the capacity reduction is implemented, the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [8] - **Natural Rubber**: The negative factors have not been realized, but the market sentiment remains weak. The futures price may have over - declined due to sentiment. NR may show a relatively strong performance in the near - term. In the short - term, it can be considered from a long - bias perspective of oversold rebound, but the increase range is limited [1][9][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The raw material has weakened significantly, and the futures price has dropped sharply. The high production volume and high inventory are the main pressures, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [13] - **Cotton**: The decline of cotton price has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. Based on the expected increase in production, the cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [14] - **Sugar**: Both domestic and international sugar prices have weakened. In the medium - and long - term, the sugar market is expected to be in a bearish pattern due to the expected increase in global supply [15] - **Pulp**: The game of the virtual - to - real ratio may lead to intraday fluctuations, but the effectiveness needs to be observed. The high supply and the issue of birch pulp warehouse receipts are the main downward drivers [17] - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. The market supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and the price may decline slightly after the festival [18] - **Logs**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the logs oscillate weakly. The weak demand and high inventory are the main factors affecting the market [20] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - glued paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [22][54][67][113][126][140][163] 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [175]

Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Change the previous bullish view to a sideways view. The near - term market focuses on the reality of high supply and high inventory of soybean meal. However, with the 23% import tariff on US soybeans, the depletion of soybean inventory at Chinese ports in the middle of the fourth quarter will support the futures market. Also, there is potential upside as US soybean yield may be further adjusted downwards, making it difficult to form a unilateral trend in the short - to - medium term [6] - Future attention points include when the US resumes report publication and the production adjustments in the report, the results of China - US trade negotiations, and whether Argentina's export policy will be liberalized again, which will affect the valuation of the 01 contract [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review**: - Domestic soybean meal futures contracts showed different price movements. For example, the price of the bean粕2601 contract increased by 0.27%, the bean粕2603 contract by 0.38%, and the bean粕2511 contract by 0.76% [6] - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1010 cents. Due to the recent China - US trade disputes, the CBOT soybean futures dropped significantly on Friday night and then stabilized on Sunday [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: - The current view is changed from bullish to sideways. Although the near - term market faces high supply and high inventory, the depletion of soybean inventory at Chinese ports in the middle of the fourth quarter and the potential reduction in US soybean yield will support the market [6] - Pay attention to the resumption of US report publication, China - US trade negotiation results, and Argentina's export policy, which will affect the valuation of the 01 contract [6] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - As of the week of October 7, about 39% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, compared with 37% in the previous week and 43% in the same period last year [9] - As of October 10, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season had reached 21.22% of the expected total, up from 15.03% in the previous week and 8.81% in the same period last year [9] - Brazilian farmers had sown 12.48% of the expected soybean planting area in 2025, significantly higher than the 5.28% sowing progress in the same period last year [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **For Soybean Meal (M2601)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and harvest weather in the US soybean - producing areas. In the domestic market, high imports of soybeans in October and spot price discounts suppress the futures price, but the variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas supports the bottom of the market. Overall, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. Similar to soybean meal, the US soybean market has uncertainties. In the domestic market, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones supports the price, but high imports and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the market. It is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - China - US tariff negotiations are at a standstill, which is a short - term negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China in October remains at a relatively high level. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The soybean market is in a critical period affected by US soybean weather and China - US trade negotiations, and the September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. Soybean meal is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, which weakens the demand for soybean meal in October, suppressing the price. However, due to the uncertainties in China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal is still in a range - bound pattern [13]. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still the possibility of speculation about the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the China - US tariff war. Soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, waiting for clear information on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: High total arrivals of imported soybeans in China in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest [14]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the China - US trade tariff game [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - **Bearish Factors**: A bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the price [15]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal Transaction Data**: From September 25 to October 13, the transaction price of soybean meal was between 2981 - 3004 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.81 - 22.38 million tons. The price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 431 - 504 yuan/ton [16]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From September 25 to October 13, the price of soybean meal futures (M2601) was between 2922 - 2967 yuan/ton, and the spot price was between 2880 - 2910 yuan/ton. The price of soybean futures (A2601) on October 13 was 3967 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 4100 yuan/ton [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From September 23 to October 13, the soybean (A) warehouse receipts decreased from 7606 to 7090, the soybean (B) warehouse receipts increased from 0 to 600, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 39055 to 41285 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, production, consumption, inventory, etc. from 2015 to 2024, reflecting the overall supply - demand situation of soybeans [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress data of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 to 2025 are provided, which helps to understand the production situation in different regions [34][35][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 show changes in planting area, yield, production, and other data, which have an important impact on the soybean market [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. The expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the price of the 2601 contract [5]. - For palm oil, after the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound despite the short - term fluctuations caused by factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the domestic soybean futures price is stronger than the foreign market. There is a procurement gap for the 12 - 1 January shipment, and the expected tightening of long - term soybean supply supports the 2601 contract [5]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the decline in international oil prices and the weakening of the industrial chain, the decline of palm oil futures prices has widened. After the release of market risks, the price may stop falling and rebound [7]. - **Key Factors**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Not in detailed description but in overview) - **Viewpoints**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [6]. - **Key Factors**: Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].