Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Demand expectations are weak and there are phased emission reduction controls. Steel mills have started to lower raw material purchase prices, while the supply side is in the recovery period, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is expected that the rebound space of coking coal and coke prices is limited [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Market Situation**: On March 5, 2026, according to Mysteel, some steel mills in the Hebei region began to lower the coke purchase price. The wet - quenched coke was reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and the dry - quenched coke was reduced by 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented on March 6. Affected by market sentiment, coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated and declined, and coking coal basically gave back the previous day's gains, showing a wide - range volatile trend. The price of coking coal in the production area was reduced by 20 - 70 yuan/ton [2]. - **Policy Impact**: During the important meeting this week, on the one hand, pay attention to the changes in macro - policy expectations; on the other hand, some steel enterprises in North China will implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11. At that time, the blast furnace load will be independently reduced by no less than 30%, which will put some pressure on the demand for coking coal and other furnace materials in the short term [2]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis** - **Supply**: This week, coal mines continued the resumption process. After the Lantern Festival, coal mines in the main production areas basically resumed production comprehensively. This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.829 million tons and 748,000 tons respectively, an increase of 313,000 tons and 99,000 tons compared with the previous week. After the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port has returned to a relatively high level. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume was about 176,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area was still at a high level, suppressing the futures price [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces was about 2.33 million tons. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed the raw material inventory in the factory. Some coking enterprises had limited coke外运, and the inventory in the factory was accumulated. Affected by the environmental protection and production restriction policy this week, it is expected that the growth rhythm of hot metal production may slow down [3].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not mentioned Group 2 - Core view: The steel price is expected to move in a volatile manner [3] Group 3 - Key points from the report: The steel market continued to fluctuate yesterday, with the current market focus on the energy and chemical sectors and the black market remaining relatively calm. Steel prices have been adjusting laterally in a narrow range in the past few trading days. The turmoil in the Middle East has little impact on the domestic steel sector. Attention should be paid to the verification of demand and whether there are major macro - policies during the Two Sessions that could affect steel prices [2] - Information from the 14th National People's Congress: This year, China will adhere to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, boost consumption, and formulate laws such as the Law on Nursery Services. The basic policies of the Party and the state to promote the development of the private economy will remain unchanged. The central government will introduce more policies to benefit Hong Kong. China and the US should respect each other, coexist peacefully, and achieve win - win cooperation. China - EU economic and trade relations are based on complementary advantages and mutual benefit. China is highly concerned about the situation in Iran and calls for an immediate stop to military actions and the resumption of dialogue and negotiation to maintain peace and stability in the Middle East [2] - Cost and price changes: This week, the average tax - free hot metal cost and the average tax - included billet cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan increased slightly compared with last week. The billet ex - factory price rose, and the loss decreased to about 70 yuan/ton [2] - Later concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand conditions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production, low demand, and rapidly increasing inventory from a low level. The downstream demand is expected to gradually start, but the market's demand expectation for this year is relatively weak. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, indicating strong support below. Due to the current low valuation, the downside space may be limited [2]. - The iron ore market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The steel production is at a low level, and the hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high. The futures price has rebounded rapidly, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production of rebar from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, the apparent demand decreased month - on - month, the total inventory continued to rise, the total production of the five major varieties decreased significantly, the inventory continued to increase, and the apparent demand was at a low level for the year [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price oscillates at a low level, indicating strong support below [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different degrees of decline [2]. - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the production of electric - arc - furnace steel mills' rebar increased [2]. - **Inventory**: The social and steel - mill inventories of the five major varieties and rebar and hot - rolled coil increased [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties, rebar, and hot - rolled coil increased [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. The steel production is at a low level, and the hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory has reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude, treat it with an oscillating mindset, and avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different degrees of changes [4]. - **Supply**: The shipping volume of Australian iron ore decreased, while that of Brazilian iron ore increased. The arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production increased, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased [4]. 3.3 Industry Information - The PMI of the steel industry in February 2026 was 46.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2 percentage points, indicating that the operation of the steel industry slowed down in the short term due to the Spring Festival holiday. The supply and demand at both ends of steel contracted, the finished - product inventory decreased, and the prices of raw materials and steel were weak [7]. - Some steel mills in Tangshan and Xingtai regions lowered the prices of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on March 6, 2026 [8]. - As of the week ending March 4, the national building materials production increased, the total inventory increased, the national hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the total inventory increased [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, focus on risk defense. After the market sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may continue to outperform the weighted stocks. Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline [11][13]. - For steel, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend. For iron ore, short - term high - level short positions can take profits, and long - term partial short positions can be held lightly. For double - coking, the price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines, downstream demand recovery, and international crude oil price fluctuations after the Spring Festival [15][16][18]. - For various non - ferrous metals and new materials, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, zinc is recommended to maintain a bearish view, and lead is recommended to hold short positions [24][27]. - For agricultural products, different varieties also have different trends. For example, cotton is expected to enter a volatile stage, sugar is recommended to be operated with a volatile mindset, and eggs are expected to have a limited increase in price in March [34][35][36]. - For energy and chemical products, the short - term trading of crude oil is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and the price of fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation after continuous daily limit increases. Different chemical products such as plastics, rubber, and methanol also have their own characteristics and trends [42][44][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Information - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held from March 5th to March 12th. The State Council Premier Li Qiang will deliver the "Government Work Report", and relevant personnel will interpret it [6]. - The US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer. The US will control the rhythm and intensity of the operation. NATO's interception of Iranian missiles will not trigger the collective defense clause. China will send a special envoy to the Middle East for mediation [6]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the tariff rate will soon return to the level before the Supreme Court rejected Trump's reciprocal tariffs, and the US may officially adopt a 15% global tariff rate this week. The US will provide insurance for oil tankers and cargo ships in the Persian Gulf [7]. - The South Korean stock market fell sharply, and the financial regulatory agency will start a 100 - trillion - won market stabilization plan if market fluctuations intensify [7]. - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points [7]. - NVIDIA's CEO said that the company's $30 billion investment in OpenAI may be its last investment before the company goes public, and OpenAI is expected to start an IPO by the end of the year. The $10 billion investment in Anthropic may also be the last [8]. - Mediterranean Shipping Company will unload all goods bound for ports in the Gulf region at the nearest safe port and charge a mandatory surcharge of $800 per container. Maersk will temporarily stop accepting cargo bookings to and from the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia [8]. - US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh will replace the current Fed Chairman Powell for a four - year term [8]. - The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest increase since November 2025. The eurozone's unemployment rate in January unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%, a record low, and the PPI showed different changes [9]. Macro - finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market adjusted with shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.98% to 4082.47 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.75%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.41%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 0.69%. The market traded 2.39 trillion yuan throughout the day. The market's focus shifted to food and fertilizer sectors, and the oil and gas sector's volatility increased. The semiconductor sentiment weakened due to the sharp decline in the South Korean stock market [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks reduce risk appetite, push up global inflation expectations, and may suppress the performance of the equity market. Bond yields may decline. The official PMI was affected by seasonality and was weak, while the Hong Kong ratingdogPMI was strong. The continuous sharp rise in crude oil prices pushed up the bond market due to market risk - aversion sentiment [13]. Black Steel - The current order - receiving situation of steel is acceptable, but the inventory is high, especially for coils, which suppresses steel prices. The real - estate sales and new construction data are weak, and infrastructure projects have not started much. The downstream consumption of coils is acceptable, and the export and steel mills' orders are good. The supply side has low - level profits, and the iron - water output has increased slightly. The cost of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal fluctuates, and the overall steel price is expected to fluctuate. The recommended strategies include selling wide - straddle options and holding, taking profits on short positions in iron ore in the short - to - medium term, and holding partial short positions in the long term [15][16]. Coal and Coke - The price of double - coking may fluctuate in the short term. After the Spring Festival, the supply of coal mines has recovered, and the demand from steel mills will increase. However, the recovery of terminal steel demand is uncertain, and there is still an expectation of price cuts for coke. The rise in international crude oil prices may support the price of double - coking [18]. Iron Alloys - The current double - silicon market may be driven by off - industry forces. The current price is at a stage high, and there are negative impacts such as hedging pressure and production resumption pressure. It is recommended to exit long positions and try short positions at high prices [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, the supply is high, and some enterprises have maintenance plans. The new production capacity of leading enterprises has made progress. For glass, the upstream price has loosened, and there are both cold - repair and ignition plans on the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see at present [22]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Copper - In the short term, due to geopolitical conflicts, the expectation of interest - rate cuts has cooled, and Kevin Warsh may promote balance - sheet reduction, which will put pressure on copper prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate widely. In the long term, the global copper - mine supply is tight, which will support the copper - price center [24]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm is low, and it is recommended to maintain a bearish view and treat it with a volatile mindset [24]. Lead - The consumption of lead is gradually recovering, and the supply recovery is slower than the consumption end. It is recommended to hold short positions [27]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate show a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The short - term supply increases, and the demand may weaken due to the Israel - Iran war. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [29]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is valued at a relatively low level, and previous long positions can be held. Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [30][32]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to enter a volatile stage. The global cotton output is expected to decline, and the demand remains stable. The domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage, and the actual consumption and orders of textile enterprises are the key to the market [34]. Sugar - The global sugar market has a supply surplus, but the surplus has been adjusted. The domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, and there is a replenishment demand after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to operate with a volatile mindset [35]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs may stabilize, and there is an expectation of price increase in March, but the increase space is limited. The futures contracts in the second quarter are supported by the expectation of spot - price increase, but the premium over the spot is large, and the upside pressure is large [36]. Apples - High - quality apple products may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly. The prices of high - quality products in the western region are rising, while those in the Shandong region are stable [38]. Corn - It is recommended to choose the 5 - 7 reverse spread. The domestic corn price is strong in the spot market and fluctuates in the futures market. There is a certain stage pressure, but the low inventory supports the price [39]. Red Dates - The red - date market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The consumption after the Spring Festival is in the off - season, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm in the sales areas and the mentality of purchasers [40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Strait of Hormuz is still impassable, and the domestic crude - oil price continues to rise sharply. Geopolitical factors are the main trading line in the short term. The conflict between the US and Iran has a great impact on global crude - oil supply. The oil - price premium is relatively high, and the increase range is limited if there is no extreme conflict [42]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focus is the impact of oil prices on fuel oil under the influence of geopolitics. After continuous daily limit increases, it is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. The supply risk has not been eliminated [44]. Plastics - The unstable situation in the Middle East may support the price of polyolefins. It is recommended to beware of the rebound risk and adopt a bullish mindset [45]. Rubber - The conflict may affect tire exports, and it is recommended to be cautious in going long in the short term. Pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between RU - NR and RU - BR [46]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to go long on dips, but be cautious about the rapid decline of energy prices and high inventory. Partially take profits on the strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber [48]. Methanol - The current supply - demand situation of methanol has improved slightly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, which may affect the supply of Iranian methanol. It is recommended to adopt a bullish - volatile mindset, but beware of the callback caused by the shutdown of downstream MTO factories [49]. Caustic Soda - The caustic - soda market is expected to fluctuate widely. The spot price is relatively weak, and the futures price has insufficient upward drive and relatively high valuation [50]. Asphalt - Asphalt follows the oil - price fluctuation, and the amplitude is expected to be smaller than that of crude oil. Pay attention to the replenishment demand after winter storage in March [51]. PVC - The short - term PVC may be bullish - volatile. The increase in oil prices will raise the cost of ethylene - based PVC. It is recommended to be cautious and adopt a range - volatile mindset [52][53]. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment, and it is expected to continue to run strongly. Pay attention to the implementation of device maintenance and the substantial recovery of polyester demand in the long term [54]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The supply of LPG is abundant in the future, and the price is difficult to stay high. The demand is restricted. The short - term geopolitical situation increases volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. Pulp - The market is in a multi - empty game. The high inventory pressure and the forced production cuts of overseas pulp mills are the focus. Pay attention to the port inventory and the implementation of product price increases [57]. Logs - The demand in the Rizhao area is gradually recovering, and the forward - spot price is difficult to fall under the support of the cost. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the commodity and macro - sentiment [58]. Urea - The futures market is highly emotional, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to lay out short positions when the price rises [59].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that low-carbon technology and industries are essential for high-emission sectors to respond to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and achieve green transformation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The three major high-emission industries—steel, aluminum, and cement—will focus on the circular economy, supported by both policy and corporate transformation needs, becoming a new engine for green low-carbon growth [1] - Leading companies in high-emission industries that have made significant progress in transformation possess technological and financial advantages, which may enhance their international competitiveness through low-carbon transformation [1] Group 2 - The CBAM will officially take effect on January 1, 2026, after a two-year transition period, initially covering six high-emission industries, including steel, aluminum, and cement [1] - Importers will need to pay for carbon emissions from the previous year, with the first CBAM certificate payments due in 2027, and the scope may expand to downstream industries by 2028 [1][2] - The CBAM is part of the EU carbon market reform, which will gradually increase the proportion of paid certificates while phasing out free allowances for relevant industries by 2035 [2] Group 3 - The CBAM is essentially a green trade barrier aimed at revitalizing the EU economy and addressing internal and external challenges, including the post-COVID recovery and energy crisis [3] - The EU is implementing a "Brussels effect" through the CBAM, encouraging other countries to adopt similar measures, thereby strengthening its position as a global regulator in green trade [3] Group 4 - The CBAM will significantly increase short-term carbon costs for China's high-emission industries, with cement facing the highest cost pressure, followed by steel and aluminum [4] - The carbon cost as a percentage of the value of corresponding export products is estimated to be 14.2%-15.9% for cement, 8.5%-9.5% for steel, and 2.9%-3.2% for aluminum [4] - Exporting companies in these sectors will also incur additional "hidden costs" related to carbon auditing and data management to comply with CBAM requirements [4] Group 5 - In response to the CBAM, China has made some preparations and achieved certain industry transformation results, but stricter carbon management and assessment will be enforced during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - High-emission industries will face dual carbon costs domestically and internationally, necessitating gradual low-carbon transformation through technological innovation [5] - The evolving trade landscape and supply chain restructuring present opportunities for accelerated transformation, with companies that adapt effectively likely to excel in innovation and operational performance [5]

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/03/05 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/02/26 | 2192 | 2265 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/02/27 | 2193 | 2266 | 2063 | 2220 | 2215 | 2107 | | 2026/03/02 | 2194 | 2271 | 2061 | 2223 | 2215 | 2108 | | 2026/03/03 | 2194 | 2272 | 2061 | 2222 | 2215 | 2109 | | 2026/03/04 | 2195 | 2274 | 2061 | 2223 | 2215 | 2109 | | 环比 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The demand for rebar shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the price below the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line trending downwards, and the main position being net short, the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the 3020 support level [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are both weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked. Although the main position is net long and increasing, the market is still expected to be volatile due to weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the 3200 key support level and the policy guidance of the Two Sessions, which is greatly affected by macro - market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Spot and Basis** - **Rebar**: The spot price of rebar is not given, and the basis is 119, which is considered bullish [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3220 yuan/ton, and the basis is 8, which is considered neutral [2]. **Profit and Cost** No relevant content is provided in the report. **Capacity and Inventory** - **Rebar**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 567.76 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is considered neutral [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 357.37 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is considered bearish [2]. **Rebar Demand and Downstream** - The demand for rebar shows no improvement, and the real - estate industry, a major downstream sector, is in a downward cycle, with traders' purchasing willingness remaining weak [1]. **Hot - rolled Coil Demand and Downstream** - The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil are both weakening, and exports are blocked, indicating a weak downstream demand situation [2]. **Macro** - The real - estate market is still weak, and there are domestic capacity - reduction plans that will impact the market. The hot - rolled coil market is greatly affected by macro - market sentiment and policy guidance from the Two Sessions [1][2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - Currently, the supply in the first quarter is relatively tight, while the demand side still faces certain policy pressures before the Two Sessions. However, the overall resumption of production is expected to accelerate. It is predicted that the iron ore price may turn from weak to strong, but the high port inventory and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space of the iron ore price. One can consider deploying buy hedging or investment strategies at the lower edge of the trading range [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 - **Market Review**: On March 4, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. After a small increase at the opening, it declined slightly and then fluctuated upward, closing at 752.0 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [7]. - **Spot Market and Technical Analysis**: On March 4, the main iron ore outer - market quotes were adjusted down by 0.2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 0 - 7 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J - value turning down and the K - value and D - value continuing to rise; the green column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract narrowed for 6 consecutive trading days [9]. - **Outlook**: Before the Spring Festival, the shipments from Australia and Brazil significantly declined, partly due to the impact of the Australian hurricane, and rebounded after the festival. The iron ore shipments in February continued to decline overall. It is expected that the subsequent shipments may see a slight recovery, but they will remain at a relatively low level in the first quarter due to weather factors. The arrival volume in February decreased significantly compared with that in January. Considering the recent shipping situation, it is expected that the arrival volume in early March will remain low and then may recover. On the demand side, before the Spring Festival, the daily average pig iron output slightly recovered to over 2.3 million tons, and the demand remained resilient. After the festival, it continued to rise. Although February is still in the off - season for demand, the current profit performance is good. The profit per ton of steel in blast furnaces for rebar and hot - rolled coils is in the positive range. Driven by profits, the resumption of production may accelerate after the Two Sessions. In terms of inventory, steel mills replenished their stocks sufficiently before the festival, and the inventory decreased significantly after the festival. It is expected that the available days of inventory will continue to decline to around 20 days. The port inventory increased slightly in February, mainly affected by the decline in arrival volume and the low downstream production during the festival. Considering that the shipments remained low in February, it is expected that the arrival volume in March will still be at a low level, while the production rhythm of downstream steel enterprises will gradually resume. It is expected that the port inventory will fluctuate around 170 million tons, still remaining at a historical high [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - Goldman Sachs' equity strategists said in a report that as tensions in the Middle East intensify and investors re - evaluate the capital expenditure risks related to artificial intelligence, global stock markets may face a short - term correction, but the probability of a full - blown bear market remains low. The current high valuation makes the market more vulnerable to corrections, but if an adjustment occurs, it may also provide a buying opportunity, and the risk of a deeper decline is limited. Strong economic growth, robust corporate earnings, and a healthy private - sector balance sheet should help buffer systemic risks. They still recommend diversified allocation across a wide range of regions, factors, and industries to improve risk - adjusted returns [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between different grades of iron ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the May contract, the shipping volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization rates, the trading volumes of iron ore at main ports, the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the cost of pig iron without tax in sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [14][15][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillating" [7] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost side is strongly supported due to the convening of the Two Sessions, geopolitical disturbances, rising energy valuations, and increasing shipping costs. Iron ore and alloy prices are strong, and steel prices are firm. However, real - world demand lacks highlights, coking coal demand release is limited, the first round of coke price cuts has begun, and the fundamentals of glass and soda ash still face pressure, with the futures market struggling to rise [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly and remain at a high level. The current arrival at ports is low but is expected to rebound. There are still hurricane disturbances in Australia. The supply of scrap steel is in a seasonal recovery stage [4][9]. - **Demand**: The resumption and maintenance of blast furnaces are staggered, and the iron - water output has increased significantly. The profitability of steel mills has slightly recovered, and the rigid demand has marginally increased. During the Two Sessions, production in some regions will be restricted, affecting the recovery rhythm of iron - water. The demand for scrap steel is also in a seasonal recovery stage [4][9]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventory has increased, and the inventory at steel mills has decreased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel at steel mills has also decreased, and some steel mills have rigid restocking needs [4][9][11]. - **Outlook**: Iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. Scrap steel prices may oscillate within a narrow range [4][10][11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke** - **Supply**: Coking profits are stable, but during the Two Sessions, some coke oven production capacity may be restricted, and supply may decrease slightly [13]. - **Demand**: The resumption and maintenance of steel - mill blast furnaces coexist, and the overall number of resumed furnaces is more than that of maintained ones. However, production restrictions during the Two Sessions may drag down the recovery of iron - water, but there is still rigid demand support [13]. - **Inventory**: Before the festival, inventory replenishment at all links was basically in place. During the festival, steel mills consumed their own inventory, and coke enterprises accumulated inventory. With the recovery of logistics, the inventory pressure is acceptable [13]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, both supply and demand of coke are expected to increase slightly. In the short term, the supply - demand structure will remain healthy. After the first - round price cut, the possibility of further cuts is small, and the futures market will follow the cost of coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: Most domestic coal mines have resumed production, and the import of Mongolian coal has returned to normal, with overall imports remaining high [15]. - **Demand**: Coke production has increased slightly. Before the festival, mid - and downstream inventory replenishment was basically completed. During the Spring Festival, there was little procurement, and most enterprises consumed in - house inventory. With the accelerated resumption of coal - mine production, the upstream has slightly accumulated inventory [15]. - **Outlook**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption speed of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal face pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. Spot prices are expected to be weakly stable, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely due to capital sentiment [15]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon** - **Cost**: The price of manganese ore is strong, and the cost of manganese silicon is gradually rising [18]. - **Demand**: Steel production is increasing, but the resumption rhythm of some steel mills may be affected during major meetings. Steel mills will first digest their previous raw - material inventory, and the restocking demand recovers slowly [18]. - **Supply**: The start - up of southern manufacturers remains low, but the production control in the north is limited, and with the continuous release of new production capacity, market inventory may further accumulate [18]. - **Outlook**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is significant selling - hedging pressure above the futures market. When the futures price rises above the cost line, there is a risk of a callback [18]. - **Silicon Iron** - **Cost**: There is an expectation of rising energy prices, and the cost support for silicon iron is expected to strengthen [19]. - **Demand**: Steel production is increasing, but the resumption rhythm of some steel mills may be affected during major meetings. Steel mills will first digest their previous raw - material inventory, and the restocking demand recovers slowly. The demand for steel - making has limited support for silicon - iron prices. The production of magnesium metal remains high, and the price of magnesium ingots is firm [19]. - **Supply**: The daily output of silicon iron is still at a low level, and the upstream inventory pressure is limited. However, with the strengthening of the futures market and the increasing steel production, manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions and insufficient driving forces. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of a high - level callback when the futures valuation quickly recovers above the cost line [19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Supply**: The spot price is low, and glass manufacturers are in large - scale losses. In the long term, the daily melting volume should show a downward trend [16]. - **Demand**: After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has not recovered, and real demand needs to be verified after the Lantern Festival. The mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral, with limited restocking ability [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate. There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, supply exceeds demand. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventory will always suppress prices [16]. - **Soda Ash** - **Supply**: The daily output increased yesterday, and supply remains high in the short term [16]. - **Demand**: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There is an expectation of a decline in glass daily melting volume, corresponding to a weakening of heavy - soda ash demand. The downstream procurement of light - soda ash has not changed significantly [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [16]. 3.5 Steel - **Supply**: After the festival, with the gradual resumption of electric - arc furnaces, the output of rebar is expected to increase month - on - month, and the supply pressure of steel will gradually increase [9]. - **Demand**: In the off - season and affected by the holiday, the recovery of post - festival demand still takes time. Currently, the demand for building materials is at a seasonal low, and the demand for the manufacturing industry is also in the off - season. The downstream restocking willingness is low, and the overall demand is at a low level [9]. - **Inventory**: After the festival, steel inventory continues to accumulate, especially the inventory of rebar. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated [9]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious. With the convening of the Two Sessions and many geopolitical disturbances, there is still uncertainty in the macro - environment. The futures market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n ⻛险提⽰：1）地缘冲突加剧风险；2）关税冲突广泛升级；3）国内增 量政策和经济修复不及预期；4）美联储货币政策大幅偏离预期 • 中信期货研究 | 晨报 2026-03-05 地缘冲突仍是短期主导，关注今⽇"两 会"经济⽬标 海外继续关注中东局势，国内关注今日"两会"政府经济工作目标的制 定。 n 海外宏观：海外消费信⼼修复、⼯业订单分化、地缘与制度⻛险升温。 2月美国谘商会消费者信心回升，显示消费韧性仍在，限制"衰退交易" 空间。12月工厂订单总量回落，但剔除运输后转为增长，非国防资本品（ 剔除飞机）继续扩张，核心资本开支保持韧性，对工业金属形成支撑。与 此同时，围绕沃什人选的政策讨论发酵，风险溢价影响美元与利率定价； 叠加特朗普强化对伊朗立场并出现以色列对伊朗空袭，中东局势升温，推 升能源与避险溢价。整体呈现"增长未失速、政策与地缘风险抬升"的格 局。 • n 国内宏观：国内政策协同强化、消费⾼频偏暖、地产边际改善，关注今 ⽇"两会"政府经济⼯作⽬标的制定。2月财政与货币投放高于季节性， 流动性环境偏稳，有利于短端利率表现。出口平稳，春节期间出行与消费 活 ...