12月31日盘中，螺纹钢期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至3114.00元。截止发稿，螺纹钢主力合约报 3123.00元，跌幅0.45%。 光大期货 预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主 螺纹钢期货主力小幅下跌0.45%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 国都期货 螺纹钢节前轻仓操作 机构 核心观点 新世纪期货 钢材价格估计还将保持底部震荡 光大期货：预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主 据统计，2026年中天钢铁1-1期华东地区建材计划量折扣为螺纹5折(上期5.5折)，线材6折（上期6.5 折），盘螺6折（上期6.5折）。钢厂供应量有所下降，将在一定程度上缓解市场压力。目前螺纹市场矛 盾不大，但驱动也不强，市场情绪偏谨慎。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 国都期货：螺纹钢节前轻仓操作 五大钢材品种供应796.82万吨，周环比降幅0.1%，五大钢材总库存1257.99万吨，周环比降2.8%，五大 品种周消费量为833.61万吨，其中建材消费环比降3.2%，板材消费环比增1.4%。消息面，2026年国补对 象新增智能眼镜、智能家居等智能产品，剔除家装、电动自行车两大类。钢材供需趋于宽松，库存压力 或将开始累 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing fluctuations due to production adjustments and seasonal demand changes, with potential impacts on pricing and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Supply - Shanxi Jianlong's 850mm hot-rolled steel line has begun maintenance on December 29, with a planned downtime of 36 days, expected to reduce daily hot-rolled steel output by 0.5 million tons [1]. - The hot-rolled steel inventory has significantly decreased, primarily due to production cuts, although there are concerns that demand may decline more sharply than production reductions [2]. Group 2: Market Prices - On December 31, the market price for hot-rolled coils in Tangshan dropped by 10, with mainstream prices for 4.75-11.75*1500*C hot coils ranging from 3170 to 3190, and manganese coils priced between 3290 and 3310 [1]. Group 3: Futures Market - As of December 30, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 1.1351 million long positions and 1.0915 million short positions in hot-rolled futures, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.04, with a net position decrease of 0.0436 million contracts compared to the previous day [1]. Group 4: Analyst Insights - Nanhua Futures notes that while hot-rolled steel consumption has improved month-on-month, export controls may affect the sustainability of demand, and seasonal slowdowns are impacting end-user demand [2]. - Zhengxin Futures indicates that while policy expectations are supporting the market, the recovery in blast furnace capacity utilization and seasonal demand slowdown are weakening the supply-demand structure, suggesting that prices may have room for adjustment [2].

黑色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3134 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 持平于 2950 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3240 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.32 万吨。据统计，2026 | 窄幅整理 | | | 上涨 4 元/吨，涨幅为 0.13%，持仓增加 3 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | | | | 年中天钢铁 1-1 期华东地区建材计划量折扣为螺纹 5 折(上期 5.5 折)，线材 6 折（上期 6.5 折），盘螺 6 折 | | | | （上期 6.5 折）。钢厂供应量有所下降，将在一定程度上缓解市场压力。目前螺纹市场矛盾不大，但驱动 | | | | 也不强，市场情绪偏谨慎。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格有所下跌，收于 789 元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价下跌 7.5 元/吨， 跌幅为 0.9%，成交 30 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Million Talents Gather in Guangdong" autumn recruitment fair reflects a shift in Guangdong's focus from merely pursuing wealth to seeking sustainable development, with significant participation from both job seekers and employers [1][2]. Group 1: Recruitment Fair Overview - The recruitment fair held in Shenzhen on December 27-28 featured 1,825 key employers offering over 65,000 job positions, attracting nearly 150,000 job seekers from more than 1,700 universities [1][2]. - This event marked a collaborative effort among major companies, including BYD, Gree, and Tencent, to recruit talent across the entire supply chain, showcasing a comprehensive demand for various roles in research, manufacturing, and operations [2]. Group 2: Talent Attraction Initiatives - Guangdong has launched a series of talent recruitment initiatives throughout the year, aiming to attract 1 million graduates to stay and develop in the region within a year [2][4]. - As of November, over 5,000 recruitment events have been held under the "Million Talents Gather in Guangdong" initiative, reaching over 10 million graduates, with more than 1.1 million choosing to work in Guangdong [4]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Job Demand - The recruitment fair highlighted a strong demand for talent in sectors such as artificial intelligence, robotics, low-altitude economy, and biomedicine, indicating a vibrant job market [4][5]. - Companies emphasized the need for candidates with English communication skills and AI-related expertise, reflecting the growing integration of AI across various industries [5]. Group 4: Regional Talent Dynamics - Shenzhen's appeal to talent is driven by its strong industrial empowerment and a conducive learning environment, fostering personal and professional growth [7][8]. - The city has evolved into a "people-driven" metropolis, with its development heavily reliant on attracting high-quality talent, particularly in cutting-edge fields like AI [8][10]. Group 5: International Collaboration and Opportunities - The recruitment fair included an "APEC Talent Connection Service Zone," aimed at attracting foreign and returning talents, leveraging the upcoming APEC summit in Shenzhen to enhance international business engagement [13]. - This initiative underscores the importance of talent in driving regional competitiveness and sustaining opportunities in Guangdong [13].

从红利低波ETF（512890）十大重仓股表现来看，早盘涨跌互现：中粮糖业盘跌1.34%，南钢股份跌 2.42%，成都银行涨0.06%，大秦铁路跌0.39%，南京银行涨0.00%，兴业银行跌0.05%，农业跌0.39%， 建设银行涨0.65%，中信银行涨0.26%，四川路桥涨0.60%。具体持仓占比如下： | 股票名称 | 持仓市值(元) | 持仓数量 | 相对上期增减 | 占股票市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中根糖业1 | 695.289.225.95 | 43.591.801 | | 3.47% | | 南朝股份 1 | 570.069.953.25 | 108.584.753 | | 2.85% | | 成都银行 | 567.817.870.50 : | 32.916,978 | 12.89% : | 2.83%J | | 大秦铁路 | 538.150.834.85 | 91.366.865 | 13.02% : | 269%J | | 南京银行 | 537,824,837.14 : | 49.206.298 | | 2.69% | | 兴业银行 | 5 ...

21世纪经济报道记者雷椰 李德尚玉 北京报道 欧盟"碳关税"真的要落地了！ 2026年1月1日起，欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）正式进入"收费期"，钢铁、水泥、铝、化肥、电力和氢6类产品先被 纳入。但这只是开始，按欧盟委员会方案，到2028年，CBAM覆盖范围拟将扩大至洗衣机、汽车零部件、机械设备等 在内约180种钢铁和铝密集型下游产品。 关于产品范围的界定，业内人士向21世纪经济报道记者表示，如果出口欧盟的产品不归在CBAM税则号下，那么即便 使用了再多的CBAM覆盖产品为原料，也用不着报送数据。除了覆盖范围，具体到不同产品，CBAM所覆盖的排放也 存在差异。CBAM从2026年进入"收费期"开始，对于钢、铝、氢的间接排放，不但不收费，而且根本不要求申报。但 是，对于水泥和化肥产品，直接排放和间接排放都要收费。 "未来，除了钢铁、水泥、化肥、铝、电和氢气六大行业以外，欧盟在2025年相继出台的综合简化提案以及立法征求 意见中相继提出范围还将拓展至化工和塑料，钢铁、铝的CNcode范围延伸至下游供应链。"中国电子口岸数据中心南 京分中心相关负责人表示。 据新华社消息，欧盟委员会12月17日公布CBAM的调整方 ...

【硅铁锰硅】强预期延续,双硅偏强 需求端,随着钢材价格承压,钢厂利润不佳,铁水向下调整,直接需求走弱明显,双硅周度表需下滑至年内低点。步入终端 需求淡季,需求暂时难有改善。供给端,整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高。合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足，中期 供给过剩压力仍不减。近期硅铁产量和开工下滑较为明显,供给压力相对锰硅较轻。由于锰硅供需过剩更为明显,合金厂库 存累积不断创新高。硅铁库存虽有去化,但整体水平也偏高。近期海外主流矿山对华猛矿报价出现上涨态势,锰硅成本支撑 = 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金佳(A13. S0 走强。宏观方面,近期国内宏观政策加速出台,岁末年初稳经济需求下,刺激政策利好为主。"双碳"和反内卷目标下,近 期有关部门重提反内卷等对双硅的供给形成犹动和成本支撑预期。总体看来,近期双硅基本面延续承压,供给偏高而需求走 弱。强预期不断作用,政策利好和成本支撑下,价格走强,但后市承压回落风险较大。 1500 | | | | | | | | HE ST DVE E T | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

让衍生品成为 新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2015]75 号 作者：陈为昌 黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 报告日期：2025/12/26 2026 年年度策略报告 钢材 产业格局面临重塑，周期底部等待新生 2025 年钢材弱需求贯穿始终，对行情形成了持续压制。阶段性的上行驱 动来自控产政策预期以及焦煤供给端减量提振。全年振幅 500 元/吨左右，波 动性下降，运行中枢进一步下移。 2026 年"反内卷"将进入落地执行阶段，但在钢铁行业稳增长方案以及 焦煤进口定调增长的背景下，或难出现 2025 年 6-7 月份的拉涨行情。宏观政 策大概率维持防风险，促企稳的思路，但仍有阶段性提振。 房地产新开工面积仍存在回落空间，2026 年仍将处于寻底状态；基建投 资增速难有明显改观。"十五五"规划或推动一批重大基建项目落地，或能 为市场提供短期交易机会。制造业冷热不均，但相对 2025 年边际或有一定收 缩可能。叠加钢材及钢坯出口的减量预期，2026 年需 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Sangang Min Guang (002110.SZ) announced an expected total amount of daily related transactions with affiliated parties not exceeding 28.18235 billion yuan for the year 2026 [1] - The expected procurement transactions for 2026 are projected to reach 21.775 billion yuan [1] - Sales transactions are anticipated to be 5.45 billion yuan, while labor services received are estimated at 843.2 million yuan, and labor services provided are expected to be 76.2 million yuan [1]

12月31日，沙钢股份涨1.23%，截至发稿，报5.76元/股，成交8759.26万元，换手率0.70%，总市值 126.36亿元。 资料显示，江苏沙钢股份有限公司位于江苏省张家港市锦丰镇沙钢大厦，成立日期1999年9月28日，上 市日期2006年10月25日，公司主营业务涉及黑色金属冶炼及压延加工优特钢的生产与销售。主营业务收 入构成为：钢材、钢坯销售93.25%，其他销售6.75%。 从沙钢股份十大流通股东角度 国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）基金经理为吴中昊。 截至发稿，吴中昊累计任职时间3年339天，现任基金资产总规模253.91亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 79.64%， 任职期间最差基金回报-20.56%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，国泰基金旗下1只基金重仓沙钢股份。国泰中证钢铁ETF（515210）三季度增持1095.82万 股，持有股数1756万股，占基金净值比例为2.7%，位居第九大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约 122.92万元。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均 ...