历经三轮完整的生肖循环之后，属马的A股又将迎来新的本命年。 回望前三个马年，A股从初生牛犊到野马狂奔。如今终于逐渐成长为求稳致远的良驹。第四个本命年 里，稳增长与防风险的政策平衡仍是A股"压舱石"的强力保障，"稳"字为先也是逾2亿股民最直观的市场 期待。 A股的三轮马年行情，恰是市场从野蛮生长到成熟规范的生动缩影。1990年首个马年，A股以"老八 股"起步，市场初创，奠定了资本市场的雏形；2002年的马年，A股开始告别早期的无序波动；2014年 的马年，曾走出过一轮波澜壮阔的牛市，但杠杆失控的教训也历历在目。 三轮马年，从无到有、从乱到治，A股在学习中成长，让市场各方深刻认识到，暴涨不可持续，稳健才 能长久。 站在2026年马年的新起点，A股体量已今非昔比。市场扩容至近5500家上市公司，总市值迈上百万亿元 台阶，投资者数量突破2亿，资本市场已成为服务实体经济、承载居民财富的核心载体。 追涨杀跌、题材炒作的投机逻辑逐渐退场，价值投资、长期持有成为主流共识，监管体系、交易规则、 投资者保护机制日趋完善。一系列的向好转变，都为A股的稳定提供了坚实的保障。 对于逾2亿股民来说，"稳"是最朴素的期待，也是最理性的选择 ...

通过制度创新、政策调整与规则优化，打造一个具有正财富效应的长期向上的市场。 普惠性财富效应是股票市场的魅力源泉，其核心之点在于"惠"与"普"。"惠"是指市场必须有显著的赚钱 效应，"普"是指参与股票市场的大多数人能够享受赚钱效应。当前中国股市正面临人民币升值、利率下 行、价值洼地、制度完善等多重战略机遇，必须通过制度创新、政策调整与规则优化，打造一个具有正 财富效应的长期向上的市场。 把银行储蓄转化为社会投资 近年来，我国经济发展出现了一个引人注目的新现象，大量社会资本脱离了生产、投资与消费领域，转 化为银行储蓄。2015年到2026年1月的10多年间，居民银行储蓄存款从35.2万亿元增加到168.02万亿元， 同期银行储蓄存款利率处于下降的趋势中，当前处于有史以来的最低水平。其间，M2增速为149.36%， 居民储蓄存款增速为377.33%，后者是前者的2.53倍。 这种"逆资本化"现象的出现与加剧，对中国经济发展的负面影响日益显现。2020年1月，原银保监会开 展专项行动以"多渠道促使居民储蓄入市""促使居民储蓄存款有效转化为资本市场长期资金"，但由于中 国股市处于熊市，再加上房地产市场在这以后低迷，这一 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise on February 23, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.53%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 2.65%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 3.34% [1] - Major stocks such as Zijin Mining, Meituan, and SMIC led the gains, each rising over 5%, while Tencent and Alibaba increased by more than 3% [1] - During the Chinese New Year holiday, the Hang Seng Index saw a cumulative increase of 1.94%, with the China Enterprises Index up by 1.82% and the Tech Index by 0.47% [1] Group 2 - The AH share premium index fell by 2.34% to 113.68 points, marking the lowest level since July 2, 2018, influenced by the strong performance of the Hong Kong market [1] - As of February 23, there were nine stocks with H shares trading at a premium to their A shares, including CATL with a premium exceeding 31% and others like China Merchants Bank and WuXi AppTec with premiums over 10% [1] - Market analysts believe that the positive performance of the Hong Kong market during the holiday may provide a boost to the A-share market post-holiday, with several brokerage firms optimistic about A-share performance [1]

量化择时和拥挤度预警周报（20260220） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 中盘股或先开启上行趋势 本报告导读： 从技术面来看，高频资金流模型继续显示各大宽基指数信号依旧为负向，但偏向左 侧布局的情绪模型信号转正。结合春节后的日历效应，我们认为，以中证 500 指数 为首的中盘股或先开启上行趋势。 投资要点： | | | | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 曹君豪(分析师) | | | 021-23185657 | | | caojunhao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040094 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 工 程 周 报 高频选股因子周报（20260209-20260213） 2026.02.16 低频选股因子周报（2026.02.06-2026.02.13） 2026.02.14 绝对收益产品及策略周报（260202-260206） 2026.02.11 大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the silver fund has announced a settlement plan before the Spring Festival, which is considered to be beyond expectations by investors [1][17] - The announcement from Guotou Investment Capital indicates that the financial impact of the settlement plan on its subsidiary, Guotou Ruibin Fund, is expected to be less than 5% of the net profit for 2024 [1][20] - The estimated negative impact on the company's net profit for 2026 is calculated to be below 1.347 billion, based on the 2024 audited net profit of 26.94 billion [7][23] Group 2 - The Guotou Ruibin Fund has released a special work plan regarding the valuation adjustment of the Guotou Ruibin Silver Futures Securities Investment Fund, which has attracted market attention [3][19] - The company emphasizes that the settlement will not have a substantial impact on its overall business development and will continue to enhance risk management capabilities and investor returns [4][20] - The theoretical maximum impact amount from the settlement could exceed 30% of the 2024 revenue of the Guotou Ruibin Fund, which was reported at 1.379 billion [31][32]

第三，产业链：多元化重构。美国加大从越南、墨西哥、爱尔兰、 瑞士以及泰国等地区进口，基本对冲了中国下降的份额；中国对越 南、泰国、俄罗斯、马来西亚、墨西哥、印尼、巴西、阿联酋以及 印度等加大出口，完全对冲了对美出口的下降。具体商品来看，美 国自中国进口的重点产品都面临实际关税的大幅增加，美国自中国 进口依赖度明显下降，中国对美国出口份额也明显下降。美国加大 自北美和东南亚的进口来对冲中国下滑的份额，中国则加大对东南 亚和中东的出口来对冲美国下滑的份额。 风险提示：海外风险上升，数据测算存在偏差。 | | 021-23154149 | | --- | --- | | | lijun8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040063 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | 关税一周年：全球贸易重塑的"真相" [Table_Authors] 李俊(分析师) 关税透视研究一 本报告导读： 自美国总统特朗普在 2025 年初提出新一轮关税政策以来，全球贸易已经遭受关税干 扰一年之久。本文拟从美国进口关税视角，全面分析各国、各产品实际落地的关税 水平，并进一步分析关税 ...

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a rise before the holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.22% [1] - After the Spring Festival, the A-share market is expected to trend upwards due to policy expectations, liquidity support, and industry trends, with a focus on policy-driven opportunities [1] - Key sectors to watch include non-competitive concepts benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics, such as precious metals, oil and petrochemicals, and basic chemicals [1] - The AI and robotics sectors are anticipated to show structural highlights post-holiday, driven by increased attention during the Spring Festival [1] Group 2 - The Spring market is expected to continue, with price increases being a core focus for the first quarter, as AI technology leads to a significant expansion in code generation [2] - Industries are categorized based on physical dependency and regulatory barriers, indicating a widening gap in returns between beneficiaries of physical scarcity and those affected by code expansion [2] - The A-share market is less impacted by AI disruptions compared to US and Hong Kong markets, maintaining a positive sentiment for continued investment [2] Group 3 - The media sector is poised to benefit from new AI applications, with 2026 being a pivotal year for AI integration in media, enhancing digital marketing and content generation [3] - The Spring Festival showcased AI's potential, leading to increased public awareness and interest in technology applications within the media sector [3] Group 4 - A "red envelope market" is anticipated post-holiday, driven by external uncertainties and a favorable exchange rate for the Chinese yuan, which may enhance long-term investment in Chinese assets [4] - The technology sector is expected to see a boost from various catalysts released during the Spring Festival, raising expectations for a tech-driven market [4] Group 5 - The market is currently in a strong oscillation phase, with mixed signals from overseas markets, indicating a cautious approach to trading [5] - The A-share market is expected to experience a trendless opening post-holiday, with a focus on sectors like AI applications and robotics that have shown potential [6] - A "systematic slow bull" opportunity is still favored, with recommendations to hold positions in relatively undervalued sectors such as securities, building materials, and banks [6]

t 31 - 11 - 1 Friday of Special A JUDD 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 钟国斌 马年初八将迎来A股首个交易日，A股市场将如何运行？招商证券首席策略分析师张夏接受记者采访时表示，马年A股慢牛行情有望延续。"2026年上市公司 盈利增速有望进一步回升，预测非金融及两油A股上市公司2026年有望实现5%至10%的温和增长，盈利增速将会对A股市场上行产生关键动力。"他分析指 出，2026年A股整体仍处在盈利增速回升和估值温和扩张的阶段，预计上证指数上涨幅度介于10%至15%之间。 "A股本轮上行周期正从流动性驱动、赛道股占优的'牛市第二阶段'，向以盈利改善为驱动力的'牛市第三阶段'过渡。关键观察变量是PPI的触底回升，这通常 标志着企业盈利实质性改善"。张夏表示，在此过渡期内，市场风格将趋于均衡。 2026年以来，A股日均成交额保持在2万亿元上方。张夏认为，在A股过去两年有较好赚钱效应以及整体中高回报率资产荒的背景下，2026年A股资金供需有 望延续较大规模净流入，或达1.56万亿元，为实现慢牛带来流动性支持。 具体来看，资金供给端，公募基金将延续发行回暖趋势，如果能够有效突破扭亏阻力 ...

(2)整体协调人(为其本身及代表国际包销商)于2026年2月10日(星期二)按全球发售项下最终发售价每股发 售股份236.60港元(不包括1.0%经纪佣金、0.0027%证监会交易徵费、0.00565%联交所交易费及0.00015% 会财局交易徵费)悉数行使超额配股权，涉及合共2,326,600股发售股份，以促成将部分H股交付予已同 意延迟交付其根据全球发售认购的相关H股的承配人。 于稳定价格期间，稳定价格经办人并无出于稳定价格目的在市场上购入或出售任何股份。 格隆汇2月23日丨鸣鸣很忙(01768.HK)公告，根据香港法例第571W章《证券及期货(稳定价格)规则》第 9(2)条的规定，本公司宣布，有关全球发售的稳定价格期间于2026年2月22日(星期日)(即递交香港公开 发售申请截止日期後第30日)结束。稳定价格经办人高盛(亚洲)有限责任公司或代其行事的任何人士于稳 定价格期间进行的稳定价格行动载列如下： (1)于国际发售超额分配合共2,326,600股发售股份，约占全球发售项下可供认购发售股份总数的15%(经 计及发售量调整权已获悉数行使但于行使超额配股权之前)；及 ...

每经AI快讯，2月23日，国投资本(600061.SH)公告称，公司下属三级控股投资企业国投瑞银基金旗下国 投瑞银白银期货证券投资基金（LOF）估值调整事项预计将对公司2026年度归母净利润产生一定负面影 响，影响金额低于公司2024年度经审计归母净利润的5%，不会对公司整体业务发展产生实质性影响。 该事项最终会计处理及对公司2026年度利润的影响以年度审计结果为准。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...