Supply and Demand - As of July 18, some factories have reduced production, leading to a decline in short fiber operating rates to approximately 89.5%, a decrease of 2.8% [3] - Downstream demand for polyester yarn is weak, with reduced orders for sewing thread and an accelerated pace of inventory accumulation in factories [3] - Polyester-cotton yarn sales remain stable, but inventory levels are high [3] Profitability - As of July 22, the cash processing fee for short fibers is around 987 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for PF2509 and PF2510 contracts are 895 CNY/ton and 960 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Market Outlook - Despite short fiber factories planning production cuts in July, weak terminal demand, high temperatures, and elevated finished goods inventory are leading to increased production cuts among downstream yarn factories [4] - The overall supply and demand for short fibers are weak, with no significant drivers, and absolute prices are fluctuating with raw material prices [4] - The processing fee for PF contracts is expected to fluctuate within the range of 800-1100 CNY/ton, with limited upward or downward drivers [4] Spot Market - On July 22, the short-term futures for direct-spun polyester saw a slight increase, with factory quotes remaining stable and transactions being negotiated at discounts [1] - The average sales rate for direct-spun polyester was 55% by 3:00 PM, with some factories reporting rates of 70%, 20%, 50%, and others [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 | 一 国贸期货 直纺短纤负荷(周) 92. 30% 93.00% (0. 01) 涤纶短纤产销 -31.00% 84. 00% 53.00% 涤纱开机率(周) 66. 00% 65.00% (0. 01) 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 51. 50% 46. 00% (0. 06) 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 10000 14000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始術· T325纯涤纱价格 (零收) 解日式SZEL■ = 1.4D直纺余短 景想坝金流 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与 ...

2025 年 07 月 22 日 短纤：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 瓶片：成本支撑，短期震荡偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 短纤2508 | 昨日 6448 | 前日 6412 | 变化 36 | PF08-09 | 昨日 1 ୧ | 前日 40 | 变化 -24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PF | 短纤2509 | 6432 | 6372 | 60 | PF09-10 | -60 | -16 | -44 | | | 短纤2510 | 6492 | ୧388 | 104 | PF基差 | 1 68 | 228 | -60 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 271130 | 268777 | 2353 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 600 | 6, 600 | 0 | | | 短纤成交量 | 232464 | 333167 | - ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company plans to invest 100 million RMB in Lif Biotechnology, acquiring a 7.0175% stake, which is a strategic move to position itself in the bio-based polyester industry chain [6][7] - Lif Biotechnology is a leading manufacturer of bio-based FDCA, a key material in the "green chemistry" sector, which has the potential to replace petrochemical-based PET in the long term [6][7] - The investment is expected to create synergies with the company's existing polyester business, despite short-term challenges such as the target company's losses and industrialization risks [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.344 billion, 1.845 billion, and 2.234 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.65, 9.21, and 7.61 [8] - Revenue is expected to grow from 67.091 billion RMB in 2024 to 81.610 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.5% [11] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 5.6% in 2024 to 7.5% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" investment rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights supply disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River project expected to boost demand for civil explosives in Tibet. The elimination of outdated production capacity may improve the industry landscape [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the anticipated increase in global oil supply led by non-OPEC producers, while demand remains stable with a projected global GDP growth of 2.8%. However, the impact of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties may affect oil demand growth [3][4]. - The report suggests that the recent fire at Covestro's German facility has led to a significant drop in TDI supply in Europe, causing prices to surge from €1900/ton to €2500/ton, with domestic prices rising from ¥12000/ton to ¥14913/ton [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry, noting a significant increase in oil supply and stable demand, while also highlighting the potential impact of geopolitical tensions and tariff policies on oil prices [3][4]. - It mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors, and that the U.S. may accelerate natural gas export facility construction, potentially lowering import costs [3]. Supply Chain Disruptions - The report details the supply chain disruptions in TDI, spandex, and organic silicon, with specific companies recommended for investment, including Wanhua Chemical, Cangzhou Dahua, and Hualu Hengsheng [3]. - The report notes that the recent fire at Dongyue Silicon Material's factory may tighten supply in the organic silicon market, suggesting investment in Xingfa Group, Xin'an Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [3]. Policy and Capacity Elimination - The report highlights the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plans to promote structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity in key industries, which may lead to an improved industry landscape [3][6]. - It provides statistics on the proportion of outdated capacity in various chemical products, indicating potential benefits from policy changes [6][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on traditional cyclical stocks and specific companies within the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and various agricultural chemical firms [3]. - It also identifies growth stocks with recovery potential in sectors such as semiconductor materials and panel materials, suggesting companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Co [3].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 钱嘉寅（联系人）期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年7月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 02 观点小结 上游观点汇总 瓶片：震荡偏弱 CONTENTS 03 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 2 01 观点小结 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 01 本周观点总结-短纤 | 供应 | 7月初以来部分工厂落实6月中旬开会时的减产，预计持续时间一个月以上。本周部分工厂落实会议后的减产，总体幅度不大，涉及棉型及中空 产品。本周工厂平均开工率90%，棉型开工率92.3%，未来预计维持或小幅提升。关注反内卷措施对上游可能的影响。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 内外需订单均偏淡，内需上下游工厂因天气炎热 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical industry's stable growth plan is expected to optimize the competitive landscape of the chemical industry on the supply side [4][30] - The TDI market price has risen sharply due to supply disruptions caused by an incident at a production facility in Germany [4][24] - The overall profitability of the chemical industry is under pressure due to increased capital expenditures and concentrated new capacity over the past four years, but the upcoming stable growth plans may lead to the elimination of outdated capacity and recovery of product profitability [30] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.69% this week, with 302 out of 545 stocks in the sector rising [18] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported a decrease of 0.27% this week [20] Key Products Tracking - The TDI market price increased to an average of 14,063 CNY/ton, up 17.06% from the previous week [24] - The glyphosate market is showing strong performance with prices continuing to rise, averaging 25,901 CNY/ton [55] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in various sub-sectors [6][30] - Beneficiary stocks include Cangzhou Dahua and others that may benefit from the current market conditions [25][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company is actively investing in strategic emerging industries while consolidating its traditional business, specifically by investing 100 million RMB in Lif Biotechnology, aiming to enter the high-end bio-based fiber sector [2][3]. - Lif Biotechnology is recognized as a leader in the domestic FDCA (Furan-2,5-dicarboxylic acid) industry, with plans to establish the world's first 10,000-ton FDCA production line by 2025, which is expected to significantly reduce the price of FDCA in the coming years [3]. - The downstream applications of FDCA are extensive, with PEF (polyethylene furanoate) showing superior performance compared to PET (polyethylene terephthalate) in various properties, making it suitable for a wide range of industries including packaging, electronics, automotive, and construction [4]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with expected net profits of 1.466 billion RMB (down 28%), 1.882 billion RMB (down 22%), and 2.207 billion RMB for 2027, translating to EPS of 0.96, 1.23, and 1.45 RMB respectively [4][6]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading position in the polyester market, with increasing market share as polyester production capacity expands [4].

Group 1 - Jilin Chemical Fiber Group has made significant breakthroughs in both hard and soft materials, expanding its market presence with high-quality products [2][3] - The company produces carbon fiber, known as the "king of new materials," which has a market share of 45% in China, with applications in low-altitude economy, drones, and automotive lightweighting [2] - Carbon fiber is utilized in various consumer products such as bicycles, fishing rods, and ski boards, showcasing its versatility and strength [2] Group 2 - The company has developed a new type of high-tech fiber called "Hua Rong," which is softer than cotton, warmer than cashmere, and lighter than goose down, revolutionizing the textile industry [3] - Jilin Chemical Fiber is the largest producer of acrylic fiber globally and has seen a resurgence in its traditional business, with high demand for its artificial silk in Europe and South Asia [3] - The company has achieved over 70% digitalization in its production processes, transitioning from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing [3] Group 3 - Jilin Chemical Fiber has invested in sustainable practices, launching production lines for regenerated artificial silk and bamboo fiber that can process 12,000 tons of waste textiles and bamboo products annually [3][4] - The company has developed technology to produce high-end regenerated fibers from waste textiles and bamboo, receiving 17 international green certifications from the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) [4] - The focus on sustainability aims to give new life to old clothing, positioning the company as a leader in the textile industry's sustainable development [4]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No information provided Group 3: Price and Cost Summary - Naphtha CFR Japan spot price on 2025/7/17 was $574.75 per ton, down 1.14% from the previous value [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price on 2025/7/16 was $821.00 per ton, unchanged from the previous value [1] - Ethylene oxide ex - factory average price in East China on 2025/7/18 was 6450 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Methanol MA spot price on 2025/7/17 was 2377.50 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Tax - included lignite pit - mouth price in Inner Mongolia on 2025/7/17 was 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] Group 4: Futures and Spot Price Summary - DCE EG主力合约 closing price on 2025/7/17 was 4372 yuan per ton, up 0.48% [1] - DCE EG主力合约 settlement price on 2025/7/17 was 4367 yuan per ton, up 0.87% [1] - DCE EG near - month contract closing price on 2025/7/17 was 4226 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - DCE EG near - month contract settlement price on 2025/7/17 was 4226 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Ethylene glycol market price in East China on 2025/7/17 was 4440 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - CCFEI ethylene glycol internal price index on 2025/7/17 was 4440 yuan per ton, up 0.45% [1] - Near - far month price difference on 2025/7/17 was - 141 yuan per ton, down 34 yuan [1] Group 5: Operating Conditions and Load Rate Summary - Ethylene glycol comprehensive operating rate on 2025/7/17 was 56.46%, down 0.19% [1] - Petroleum - based ethylene glycol operating rate on 2025/7/17 was 58.73%, up 0.82% [1] - Coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate on 2025/7/17 was 53.17%, down 1.66% [1] - Polyester factory PTA industrial chain load rate on 2025/7/17 was 87.15%, unchanged [1] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms PTA industrial chain load rate on 2025/7/17 was 58.02%, down 1.10% [1] Group 6: Cash Flow and Price Index Summary - Naphtha - based ethylene glycol external cash flow on 2025/7/16 was - 103.92 dollars per ton, up 12.65 dollars [1] - Ethylene - based ethylene glycol external cash flow on 2025/7/16 was 116.65 dollars per ton, unchanged [1] - MTO - based MEG after - tax gross profit on 2025/7/17 was 1650.73 yuan per ton, down 19.34 yuan [1] - Coal - based synthesis gas method after - tax device gross profit on 2025/7/17 was 663.26 yuan per ton, up 28.76 yuan [1] - CCFEI polyester DTY price index on 2025/7/17 was 8500 yuan per ton, down 1.16% [1] - CCFEI polyester staple fiber price index on 2025/7/17 was 6605 yuan per ton, down 0.23% [1] - CCFEI polyester POY price index on 2025/7/17 was 6950 yuan per ton, down 1.42% [1] - CCFEI bottle - grade chip price index on 2025/7/17 was 5935 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - Basis on 2025/7/17 was 68 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan [1]