Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators in November show a divergence characterized by "strong production but weak demand, strong external demand but weak internal demand," indicating significant short-term downward pressure on the economy. Industrial production and export resilience are supported by ongoing industrial upgrades, while consumption growth is slowing, and investment continues to decline, highlighting insufficient domestic demand [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Dynamics - The economic indicators reflect a need for policy intervention to stabilize domestic demand as consumption growth slows and investment remains at low levels [3]. - Industrial production remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0% from January to November, slightly above last year's growth rate [4]. - The service sector shows signs of slowing down, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% from January to November, indicating pressure from real estate and travel-related sectors [5]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting increased pressure on consumption [8]. - The decline in consumption is notably influenced by the automotive sector and the "old-for-new" policy, which have both turned negative [8]. - Despite the overall slowdown, consumption among low- and middle-income groups remains stable, with service retail growth slightly improving [8]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.7% year-on-year from January to November, with a notable decline in real estate investment [12]. - Manufacturing investment shows initial signs of stabilization, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% from January to November, indicating a potential recovery [14]. - Infrastructure investment remains steady, supported by new policy financial tools and fiscal funding, although traditional sectors face ongoing challenges [14]. Group 4: Export Performance - November exports saw a significant year-on-year increase of 5.9%, driven by low base effects and improved export volumes [18]. - Exports to the EU rebounded significantly, while exports to the US continued to decline due to previous import surges [18]. - The overall export resilience is supported by improvements in various product categories, including home appliances and textiles [18]. Group 5: Inflation Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, supported by low base effects and rising food prices [22]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month increase, indicating a mixed inflationary environment [22]. - Future inflation is expected to continue rising, influenced by domestic policies aimed at expanding demand [24]. Group 6: Financing Conditions - Social financing data in November showed a year-on-year increase of 160 billion yuan, indicating marginal improvements in financing demand driven by policy tools [28]. - However, credit growth remains weak, with new loans significantly lower than previous periods, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer and housing market confidence [28][29]. - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates continued to decline, indicating underlying weaknesses in the economy [29].

在很多人的感受中，今年的房地产市场似乎完全由"买家主导"。 什么意思呢？就是说，由于房地产的供给比较丰富，买家并不急于买房。但只要愿意，就一定可以在心仪的地方买到房，而且往往能获得较高的折扣。 这似乎反映了一部分现状，但在实际中，也要具体情况具体分析，因为并非所有的地区都是由"买家主导"，在英国一些地区，有人甚至必须"迅速行动"才 能抢到心仪房产。 Ben Hanley和Chris Adams住在伦敦东区时尚的Fish Island。 就在不久前，他们留意到马路对面有一套更大的公寓在售。尽管两处房产离得并不远，但他们感到必须迅速行动，赶在房价进一步攀升前搬过去，才不至 于被挤出这片心爱的街区。 同时，他们还担心抵押贷款利率突然变动，生怕错过难得的时机，无法锁定更优惠的利率。 37岁的Ben说道："我们看了几套房，它们转眼就没了。机不可失。这是一个我们真正热爱、也想扎根的街区。机会来了，就必须抓住。" 在该行政区的另一端，28岁的George Reynolds也体会到了陶尔哈姆莱茨区购房的激烈程度。 近期，他刚以32.5万英镑的价格，在金丝雀码头（Canary Wharf）南边的狗岛（Isle of Dogs） ...

12月25日，离岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，为2024年9月以来首次；在岸人民币最高升至7.0061。当 天，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币 7.0392元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0471元，调升79个基点，续创2024年10月来新高。 中央经济工作会议在部署2026年经济工作时指出，要保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。人 民币在岸、离岸对美元汇率12月以来均保持强劲，这中间所涉及到的房地产、通胀、价差、利差等一系 列重要因素都不容忽视。野村中国首席经济学家陆挺认为，不如利用出口大幅增长带来的这一时间窗 口，通过结构性改革，来拉动内需，苦练内功，带动经济增长。 中美价差对人民币实际汇率形成怎样的支撑？物价水平将如何改变人民币实际汇率？房地产和汇率之间 存在着什么样的关系？需要引导人民币继续升值吗？汇率政策的安全边际应该如何界定？汇率政策在明 年整体的货币政策中的影响权重如何？明年美联储的货币政策调整对汇率有什么样的影响？第一财经 《首席对策》专访野村中国首席经济学家陆挺。 过去5年中美汇率变化不大 真正的差别表现在物价上 预言明年结束负通胀为时 ...

12月26日，厦门国贸涨5.67%，截至发稿，报8.38元/股，成交17.31亿元，换手率10.39%，总市值179.13 亿元。厦门国贸股价已经连续5天上涨，区间累计涨幅27.7%。 资料显示，厦门国贸集团股份有限公司位于福建省厦门市湖里区仙岳路4688号国贸中心，成立日期1996 年12月24日，上市日期1996年10月3日，公司主营业务涉及供应链管理、房地产经营、金融服务。主营 业务收入构成为：供应链管理业务99.63%，健康科技业务0.36%，其他板块业务0.02%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，易方达基金旗下1只基金重仓厦门国贸。易方达国证自由现金流ETF（159222）三季度减持 52.49万股，持有股数171.62万股，占基金净值比例为2.8%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈 赚取约77.23万元。连续5天上涨期间浮盈赚取295.19万元。 易方达国证自由现金流ETF（159222）成立日期2025年4月9日，最新规模3.79亿。成立以来收益 27.31%。 易方达国证自由现金流ETF（159222）基金经理为张泽峰。 从厦门国贸十大流通股东角度 数据显示，易方达基金旗下1只基金位居厦 ...

Group 1 - Hualian Holdings' stock price reached a historical high, increasing by 10.00% to 7.81 yuan, with a trading volume of 40.65 million shares and a transaction amount of 317 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 2.90% [2] - The latest total market capitalization of Hualian Holdings in A-shares is 10.964 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 10.943 billion yuan [2] - In the real estate industry, the overall decline is 0.10%, with 31 stocks rising, including Hualian Holdings, Hefei Urban Construction, and Tibet City Investment, which increased by 10.00%, 1.94%, and 1.92% respectively [2] Group 2 - The latest margin trading data shows that as of December 25, the margin balance for Hualian Holdings is 583 million yuan, with a financing balance of 582 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 180 million yuan over the past 10 days, a growth of 44.71% [2] - Recently, one institution rated the stock, with Huatai Securities setting a target price of 5.15 yuan on December 23 [2] - The company's Q3 report indicates that for the first three quarters, it achieved an operating income of 324 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.45%, and a net profit of 35.68 million yuan, down 4.73% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share of 0.0243 yuan and a weighted average return on equity of 0.70% [2]

临近年末，保险圈掀起了一场高管招聘潮！12月24日，北京商报记者注意到，近日猎聘、公众号"智联 招聘广州站"发布了珠江人寿保险股份有限公司(以下简称"珠江人寿")公开招聘高级管理人员公告，根据 招聘信息，珠江人寿将公开招聘包括总经理在内的5位高管。 珠江人寿开业至今13年，诞生于保险业快速发展期，曾在寿险市场崭露头角被视为"黑马"。如今却身陷 困局，偿付能力报告持续"难产"，年报也并未披露资产负债及盈利情况。人事调整下，珠江人寿能否翻 盘？谁又能扛起珠江人寿扭转乾坤的重任？ 集中选聘高管 根据招聘信息，珠江人寿本次招聘的高级管理人员岗位有总经理、财务负责人、董事会秘书、首席投资 官、首席合规官。简历投递截止时间为2026年1月15日。 以总经理为例，应聘者需满足15年以上金融/保险行业工作经验，其中10年以上寿险行业管理经验等要 求，做过寿险全面管理者优先。 珠江人寿前任总经理为傅安平，目前珠江人寿官网已经没有其简历。此外，根据幸福人寿公告，傅安平 将出任幸福人寿董事，任职资格尚待核准。 从珠江人寿目前高管构成来看，其高管团队仅有4人。其中，总精算师兼首席风险官由谷小春担任，去 年加入珠江人寿；还有副总经理李 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of effectively reducing real estate inventory as a key measure to stabilize the real estate market in the coming year, highlighting the need for coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides [1][4]. Group 1: Inventory Reduction Strategies - The national inventory of unsold commercial housing has been decreasing for nine consecutive months since March, yet it still exceeds 750 million square meters as of the end of November, indicating significant inventory pressure [1]. - Revitalizing existing stock through the acquisition of surplus housing for affordable housing is a crucial strategy. This approach not only accelerates inventory reduction but also alleviates financial pressure on some real estate companies [2]. - The progress of the stock acquisition policy has been slow due to challenges such as funding sources, pricing mechanisms, and project selection criteria. Future efforts will focus on optimizing related policies to enhance local government autonomy in acquisition [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Measures - The shift in urban development from large-scale expansion to improving existing stock necessitates a focus on quality housing rather than merely increasing supply. This includes limiting land supply in high-inventory areas to prevent exacerbating the inventory issue [2]. - The construction of high-quality housing is expected to stimulate demand for upgrading and improving living conditions, with an emphasis on orderly development to avoid short-term disruptions to existing inventory [2]. Group 3: Demand-Side Measures - The real estate market shows significant differentiation across cities, requiring targeted measures to unleash residents' rigid and improvement-driven housing demands. Policies may include loosening restrictions in first-tier cities and providing subsidies and housing fund support in others [3]. - Financial support policies, particularly regarding housing funds, are anticipated to strengthen, potentially including higher loan limits, lower down payments and interest rates, and expanded usage of funds to lower purchasing costs [3]. - The ongoing urbanization process is expected to continue driving the demand for housing among new urban residents, while the potential for upgrading existing housing remains substantial due to rising living standards [4].

2025 年 12 月 26 日 开源晨会 1226 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 2.913 | | 轻工制造 | 1.588 | | 机械设备 | 1.513 | | 汽车 | 1.465 | | 非银金融 | 1.078 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 综合 | -1.118 | | 有色金属 | -0.771 | | 商贸零售 | -0.472 | | 煤炭 | -0.240 | | 银行 | -0.178 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【策略】组合管理崛起：公募新时代的投资体系重构——"组合管理"系列报告 之一-2025122 ...

主编：于佳欣、刘夏村 记者：刘慧、王优玲 拍摄：郝晓江、刘晓霞 制作：胡戈、刘羽佳 新华社国内部出品 策划：邹伟 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王萌萌】 ...

Core Insights - The Nanjing real estate market showed a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, with 1,772 units sold last week, representing a week-on-week growth of 10.8% and an average daily transaction of 253 units, surpassing the 10-week average by 11.2% [1] - Cumulatively, the market recorded 4,849 transactions in December, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [1] Transaction Details - The most sold properties were in the 60-90 square meters range, accounting for 36.1% of total transactions, followed by the 90-120 square meters range at 28.1%. Properties sized between 60-120 square meters made up 64.1% of total sales [1] - Properties priced under 1 million yuan represented the highest share at 44.3%, while those priced between 1 million and 2 million yuan accounted for 33.3%. Overall, properties priced below 2 million yuan dominated the market, making up 77.6% of total transactions [1] Pricing Trends - The average transaction price for properties sold last week was 1.49 million yuan, showing a week-on-week decrease of 2.3%. The highest average transaction price was recorded in Jianye District at 2.615 million yuan, followed by Gulou District at 1.951 million yuan [1] - The average price per square meter for transactions was 16,413 yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1%. Gulou District had the highest average price per square meter at 25,655 yuan, closely followed by Jianye District at 25,654 yuan [1] - The average listing price for newly added properties was 21,460 yuan per square meter, which is a week-on-week increase of 6% [1]