2025 年 4 月 21 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石、原油、 PTA、豆粕、菜籽粕期货将偏强震荡 多晶硅、烧碱期货将震 荡偏弱 工业硅、铜、镍期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 TaoJinfeng013026@gtjas.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2506 阻力位 3729 和 3748 点，支撑位 3690 和 3673 点；IH2506 阻力位 2650 和 2658 点，支撑位 2620 和 2612 点；IC2506 阻力位 5470 和 5498 点，支撑位 536 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report conducts a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical options, including fundamental analysis, market trend analysis, volatility analysis, and provides corresponding strategy recommendations for each type of option [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Option Classification - Energy and chemical options are mainly divided into five categories: basic chemicals (methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, styrene options), energy (crude oil, liquefied gas options), polyester chemicals (paraxylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber options), polyolefin chemicals (polypropylene, PVC, polyethylene options), and other chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash, urea options) [2]. 3.2 Option Analysis and Strategy Recommendations 3.2.1 Basic Chemicals Sector - **Methanol Option**: The port inventory is at a medium - low level. The market shows a weak and bearish trend. The implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level. It is recommended to construct a bearish combination strategy of call + put options to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_MA2506P2275, S_MA2506P2250, S_MA2506C2350, S_MA2506C2375 [2]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber Options**: The downstream tire production rate has declined, and the inventory has changed slightly. The market shows a weak consolidation trend under bearish pressure. The implied volatility of rubber options is at a relatively high level. It is recommended to construct a bear - spread put option strategy to obtain directional returns, such as B_RU2505P15250, B_RU2505P15000, S_RU2505P14250, S_RU2505P14500 [2]. - **Styrene Option**: The factory inventory has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. The market has shown a weak and volatile trend after a decline. The implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level. It is recommended to construct an option combination strategy to short volatility to obtain time - value and directional returns, such as S_EB2506P7100, S_EB2506P7200, S_EB2506C7500, S_EB2506C7400 [3]. 3.2.2 Oil and Gas Sector - **Crude Oil Option**: OPEC plans to increase production, and the US supply remains high. The market has shown a bearish downward trend followed by a large - scale low - level oscillation. The implied volatility remains at a relatively high level. It is recommended to construct a strategy of selling put + call options to short volatility and obtain time - value returns, such as S_SC2506P465 and S_SC2506C485 [3]. - **Liquefied Gas Option**: Affected by China's tariff counter - measures, the PDH plant may reduce production. The market has shown a short - term weak bearish trend after a rebound. The implied volatility remains at a relatively high level above the historical average. It is recommended to construct a combination strategy of selling bearish call + put options, adjust the position delta dynamically according to the market, and close the position if the market fluctuates sharply, such as S_PG2506P4250, S_PG2506P4300, S_PG2506C4450, S_PG2506C4400 [3]. 3.2.3 Polyester Chemicals Sector - **PX and PTA Options**: PTA is in the maintenance season, and the overall load will be low. The market shows a bearish downward trend with resistance to rebound. The implied volatility of PTA options has risen to a relatively high level. It is recommended to construct a bear - spread strategy to obtain directional returns, such as B_TA2506P4300 and S_TA2506P4150 [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol Option**: The load has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The market shows a short - term weak bearish and volatile trend. The implied volatility has risen to a relatively high historical level. It is recommended to construct a strategy to short volatility and obtain time - value returns, such as S_EG2506P4050 and S_EG2506C4200 [4]. - **Short - Fiber Option**: The polyester load has slightly increased, but the short - fiber load has decreased, and there is pressure to reduce production. The market shows a bearish downward and low - level consolidation trend. The implied volatility remains at a relatively high average level. It is recommended to construct a combination strategy of selling call + put options to short volatility and obtain time - value returns, such as S_PF2506P5800, S_PF2506C6100 [4]. 3.2.4 Polyolefin Chemicals Sector - **Polypropylene Option**: The production enterprise inventory has increased, and the market shows a volatile trend under pressure. The implied volatility remains at a relatively high historical level. It is recommended to construct a combination strategy of selling bearish call + put options, adjust the position delta dynamically according to the market, and close the position if the market fluctuates sharply, such as S_PP2506P7100, S_PP2506P7000, S_PP2506C7200, S_PP2506C7300 [5]. - **Polyethylene Option**: The production enterprise inventory has increased, and the market shows a weak consolidation trend under pressure. The implied volatility has risen to a relatively high level. It is recommended to construct a bearish directional strategy to obtain directional returns, such as B_L2506P7200 and S_L2506C7300 [5]. - **PVC Option**: The capacity utilization rate has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The market shows a volatile and upward - trending consolidation under pressure. The implied volatility remains at a relatively low level. It is recommended to construct a bearish directional strategy to obtain directional returns, such as B_V2506P4900, B_V2506P4950, S_V2506C5000, S_V2506C5100 [5]. 3.3 Option Data - **Option Underlying Market Data**: Provides closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various option underlying assets [7]. - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover Data**: Includes volume, volume changes, open interest, open - interest changes, turnover, and turnover changes of various options [8]. - **Option Volume, Open Interest, and Turnover PCR Data**: Presents PCR values and their changes for volume, open interest, and turnover of various options [9]. - **Option Maximum Open Interest at Strike Prices**: Shows the strike prices with the maximum open interest, pressure points, support points, and related offsets for various options [10]. - **Option Implied Volatility Data**: Provides implied volatility, implied - volatility changes, annual averages, call and put implied volatilities, historical 20 - day volatility, and volatility differences for various options [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market shows mixed trends, with the real - estate chain being active and some sectors affected by policies and international news [2][3]. - The bond market is in a state of waiting for direction, with potential for a rebound after short - term adjustments [7]. - The precious metals market has seen a decline due to factors such as the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, but gold still has upward potential in the long - term [8][9]. - The shipping index market is in a state of shock, with suggestions to consider widening the spread between different contracts [12][13]. - The non - ferrous metals market presents different trends for each metal, with factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs influencing prices [20][22][23]. - The black metals market shows that steel production has peaked, and the iron ore market is in a state of shock [36][38][40]. - The agricultural products market has different situations for each product, such as the pressure on soybean meal prices and the shock of corn prices [53][55][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, A - share major indices mostly rose, with the real - estate chain being active. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and all had basis discounts. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields generally rose. It is expected that the bond market will have the potential to stabilize and rebound after short - term adjustments, and it is recommended to go long on dips and participate in basis and curve strategies [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell due to the European Central Bank's interest rate cut and reduced risk aversion. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to use high - throw and low - suck strategies in the short - term and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection [8][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index is in a state of shock. Spot supply and demand are still cold, and it is recommended to widen the spread between the August and June contracts and pay attention to the rebound opportunities of the June and August contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is affected by tariffs and fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [14][20]. - **Zinc**: There is still an expectation of loose supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 20500 - 21500 support level [20][22]. - **Tin**: With a weak macro - environment and gradually recovering supply, it is recommended to hold short positions and take a short - selling approach on rebounds [23][26]. - **Nickel**: After the implementation of the Indonesian policy, the market is in a state of shock. The cost has certain support, and the main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [26][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro - uncertainty, and the market is in a state of weak shock, with the main contract expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [29][31]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market has digested the tariff news, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to 6.8 - 7.2 million [32][35]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production has peaked, and the demand in the second quarter is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the domestic loose policy and the spread between steel and ore [36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron water output remains high, and the port inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to fluctuate, and the impact of terminal demand and exports needs to be observed [39][40]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [41][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is stable, but there is still a risk of decline. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [43][46]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the cost is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][48]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the mainstream steel procurement pricing, and the inventory pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, and the US soybean lacks the driving force to rise. The operation should be cautious [53][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening transaction has declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14000 - 14800 [56][57]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [58][60]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock - weak pattern [61]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [63].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Xuefeng Technology is focused on transformation and high-quality development, emphasizing its dual main businesses of civil explosives and energy chemicals [2] - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.101 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 668 million yuan, with a basic earnings per share of 0.624 yuan [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) [2] Group 2 - In the civil explosives business, Xuefeng Technology maintains an integrated development model for production, sales, and blasting services, ranking 12th in production value and 4th in blasting service revenue within the industry [3] - The company produced 119,500 tons of industrial explosives in 2024, with 48,000 tons of packaged explosives and 71,500 tons of mixed explosives [3] - The company has improved its industrial explosives production capacity from 117,500 tons/year to 119,500 tons/year and has increased the proportion of mixed explosives production capacity to 70% [3] Group 3 - The company achieved significant safety performance in 2024, with no major injuries, fires, or explosions reported, and maintained its status as an advanced unit in annual safety production management [4] - In the energy chemicals business, Xuefeng Technology produced 98,900 tons of LNG and transported 295 million cubic meters of gas in 2024, contributing to energy supply and agricultural development in Xinjiang [5] - The ammonium nitrate business saw a 39% year-on-year increase in sales, reaching a historical high, with the company being the only producer of ammonium nitrate and nitro compound fertilizers in Xinjiang [5][6] Group 4 - The acquisition of Xuefeng Technology by Guangdong Hongda is expected to enhance the company's strategic position and inject new vitality into its development, aligning with the national plan for industry consolidation [7] - The acquisition allows for potential capacity growth and market competitiveness improvements through complementary advantages and industrial synergy [7] - Guangdong Hongda is recognized as the first listed company in China providing integrated services in the mining explosives sector, while Xuefeng Technology is a leading player in Xinjiang's civil explosives market [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market continued to strengthen on Wednesday. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and silver short positions should be appropriately reduced or the gold - silver ratio should be long. The base metals market shows different trends, with copper expected to be volatile and strong, aluminum to be volatile in the short - term and potentially stabilize, and alumina to maintain a volatile run. [2] - In the agricultural products market, domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish, corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and strong, palm oil is temporarily weak, domestic sugar is easy to rise in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term, cotton can stop profit on short positions or wait and see, and eggs and logs have different price trends and trading strategies. [3][4] - In the energy and chemical market, LLDPE, PVC, PTA, rubber, glass, PP, MEG, styrene, soda ash, and caustic soda all have their own supply - demand situations and trading strategies, mainly including short - term volatility, long - term supply - demand changes, and attention to factors such as tariffs and device maintenance. [5][6][7] - In the shipping market, the overall outlook for shipping rates is pessimistic under the trade war. The Southeast Asian routes will have a supply - demand mismatch in the short - term, and the European routes will show a pessimistic outlook. [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The precious metals market continued to strengthen on Wednesday. [2] - **News**: Powell reiterated the Fed's wait - and - see approach, warning of the dilemma between inflation and the economy and denying a bailout. There were disputes over tariff policies, and economic data such as China's Q1 GDP growth of 5.4%, Canada maintaining its interest rate at 2.75%, and a 1.4% increase in US March retail sales were released. [2] - **Inventory Data**: Indian silver imports in February decreased to about 250 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 9 tons to 961 tons, and SGE silver inventory decreased by 23 tons to 1745 tons last week. London's inventory in March decreased by 335 tons to 22124 tons. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and appropriately reduce short positions in silver or long the gold - silver ratio. [2] Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated yesterday. [2] - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the Sino - US trade war, copper prices weakened during the day session. At night, the decline in US stocks and the US dollar supported metal prices, and the strengthening of precious metals also supported copper prices. The spot premium of flat - copper in East and South China was 80 yuan and 60 yuan respectively. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Treat it with a volatile and strong mindset. [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2506 contract decreased by 0.64% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 19545 yuan/ton. [2] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with a slight increase in operating capacity. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The uncertainty of US tariff policies is the main driver of aluminum price fluctuations. Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term but may stabilize if tariff policies ease. It is recommended to wait and see. [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina 2505 contract increased by 1.04% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2815 yuan/ton. [2] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, alumina maintenance, production cuts, and active production reduction were concentrated, with a significant decline in operating capacity. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production with a slight increase in operating capacity. [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The uncertainty of ore supply has increased, and the spot price has stopped falling. Alumina prices are expected to maintain a volatile run in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. [2] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose slightly overnight. [3] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, South America has a bumper harvest in the near - term, and the US may reduce soybean planting area in the long - term. On the demand side, Brazil dominates in the short - term, and US soybean demand is seasonally weak. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are expected to be volatile, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish, showing a backwardation pattern. Pay attention to trade policies and US soybean planting area changes in the medium - term. [3] Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2505 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress is over 90%, much faster than in previous years. The expected decrease in substitute imports and the increase in demand have improved the supply - demand situation. The reduction in remaining grain and the addition of tariffs are beneficial to domestic corn consumption. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: With the reduction of remaining grain, the futures price is expected to be volatile and strong. [3] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell in the short - term, trading on the expectation of increased production. [3] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, there is seasonal production increase in the producing areas, with a 17% month - on - month increase in March production. On the demand side, exports from the producing areas improved month - on - month, with a 17% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 15. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Palm oil is temporarily weak, and there are differences among varieties. Pay attention to production in the producing areas and biodiesel policies in the medium - term. [3] Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5913 yuan/ton, up 0.65%. [3] - **Fundamentals**: International raw sugar prices have broken through the support level, while domestic sugar is easy to rise. The import of processed sugar is expected to increase after the third quarter. There are differences in the market's expectations for the new domestic sugar production. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the 09 contract unilaterally. [3] Cotton - **Market Performance**: US cotton prices rose overnight, and Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to fluctuate. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton sowing progress is slow, and domestic downstream procurement has slowed down. The cotton textile PMI in March increased significantly, but orders are expected to decline. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Stop profit on short positions or wait and see. [3] Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 07 contract closed at 825.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.36%. [3] - **Fundamentals**: The ban on US log imports has been reflected in the market. The current inventory out - flow has increased, but the arrival volume is still high. Housing construction demand has increased slightly, supporting the price bottom. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. [3] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2505 contract rose, and the spot price was stable. [4] - **Fundamentals**: The new production capacity is limited in the later period, and the supply will gradually decline as old chickens are continuously culled. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, demand will improve, and inventory is at a low level. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and strong. [4] Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig 2505 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell. [4] - **Fundamentals**: The slaughter volume in April is expected to increase by 3.67%. The narrowing of the standard - fat price difference reduces the willingness to hold pigs for fattening. Secondary fattening will support the pig price, but overall, the pig price may decline resistantly. [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Secondary fattening is cooling down, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak. [4] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fell slightly yesterday. [5] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, new devices are being put into operation, and spring maintenance is ending, increasing supply. The import window is closed, and imports are expected to decrease. On the demand side, the peak season for agricultural films is ending, and exports of plastic products are expected to decline. [5] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, it is mainly volatile and weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. In the long - term, supply and demand will gradually ease, and it is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies. [5] PVC - **Market Performance**: The PVC V09 contract closed at 5041, down 0.38%. [5] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price is stable. Spring maintenance is coming, and the supply is expected to decrease. The inventory has declined from a high level. [5] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hedge after the price recovers to a high premium. [5] PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price is 738 US dollars/ton, and the PTA East China spot price is 4329 yuan/ton. [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, PX and PTA supply has decreased in April, and polyester load is high, but downstream load has decreased. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the long - short spread opportunity if there is a short - term rush to export. [6] Rubber - **Market Performance**: The RU2509 contract fell 1.98%, closing at 14635 yuan/ton. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Raw material output is limited, and the purchase price is relatively firm. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has decreased, and the social inventory has increased. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see or trade in the range, and pay attention to the support level at 14000 yuan/ton. [6] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG09 contract closed at 1179, down 0.4%. [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory is stable. The price of glass fuel has increased due to US tariffs. There are both positive policy expectations and weak actual demand. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range. [6] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fell slightly yesterday. [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, short - term maintenance is ending, and new devices are starting up. The export window is open, and pay attention to the impact of tariffs on PDH devices. On the demand side, downstream production plans vary, and pay attention to the impact of tariff suspension on exports. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, it is mainly volatile. Pay attention to the impact on PDH device operation and new device commissioning. [6] MEG - **Market Performance**: The MEG East China spot price is 4329 yuan/ton. [6] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, domestic and overseas device maintenance will reduce supply, and the inventory has decreased. Polyester load is high, but downstream load has decreased. Pay attention to export orders after the tariff suspension. [6] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be strong in the short - term but has limited upside in the long - term. [7] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell slightly yesterday. [7] - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, pure benzene inventory is high, and styrene inventory is normal and expected to decrease slightly. On the demand side, downstream profits are improving, but exports are affected by tariffs. Pay attention to the impact of tariff suspension on exports. [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate with the cost (pure benzene) and long the month - spread. [7] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed flat at 1359. [7] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate is 90%, and the inventory is high and stable. Downstream photovoltaic glass is being put into production. The supply - demand is healthy, but there is no obvious driving force. [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. [7] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The caustic soda sh09 contract closed flat. [7] - **Fundamentals**: The operating rate has slightly declined, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The price is pressured by the decline in the alumina industry chain. [7] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to continue to decline, and pay attention to the support level at 2200. [7] Shipping European Container Shipping - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell 6.21% yesterday. [8] - **Fundamentals**: The US exemption of high tariffs on semiconductor imports will slightly increase US - bound trade volume, but overall Sino - US trade volume will still be much lower than before the trade war. Exports are turning to re - export and domestic sales. The supply side is affected by tariff policies, and the demand side shows different trends in different regions. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: The overall shipping rate outlook is pessimistic under the trade war. Short the 10 - month contract on rallies. [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market, being the main trading logic. Most non - US countries aim to negotiate agreements with the US. After the US delays imposing reciprocal tariffs, other countries also delay counter - measures [1]. - The market is in a high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is gradually emerging, and risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [2][21]. - The price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather, showing different characteristics of oscillation, strength, or weakness. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market. Gold oscillated and closed higher, showing strength. The market is concerned about future Sino - US negotiation space. The actual trade has been affected, and economic downward pressure is increasing. Market sentiment is bullish, but attention should be paid to increased volatility [12]. - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility increases, so pay attention to risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market is in high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [13]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple events such as the US considering tax increases on the rich, investigating key minerals, and the slow progress of US - EU trade negotiations have occurred. The difficulty of trade negotiations persists, and the market should have a long - term expectation for tariff negotiations [15][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will rebound in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New York state's manufacturing has contracted for two consecutive months, and Canada will conditionally exempt some counter - measures against US - imported cars. The EU expects US tariffs to remain unchanged. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. - Investment advice: Although US stocks have temporarily stabilized, they have not completely reversed their weak performance [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOPA's March soybean crushing volume was lower than expected, and ANEC raised Brazil's April soybean export forecast. Domestic soybean import costs have decreased. The spot market has mixed price changes, and the basis contract is the main form of trading [22][24]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Brazil's export quotes, US soybean growing area weather, and Sino - US relations. The spot and basis of soybean meal will be under pressure [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export tariff of Malaysian crude palm oil in May remains at 10%, and the reference price is lowered. The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 15 increased. The oil market oscillated. Rapeseed oil was affected by rumors, palm oil was supported by exports, and soybean oil was affected by the expectation of high soybean arrivals [25][26]. - Investment advice: It is advisable to long - allocate distant - month soybean oil. The price of palm oil will be weak until its cost - performance is fully restored [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangxi issued a drought risk warning for sugarcane. Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of April decreased year - on - year. The sugar mill's high - price sales support the futures market, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The international market may be under pressure, and the import volume is expected to increase [30][33]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in Q2 2025, and attention should be paid to the origin weather and Brazil's crushing production [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises' losses remain unchanged. The raw material cost is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price difference is affected by complex factors, and the loss may lead to a reduction in production. The substitution of wheat may affect the regional price difference [34][35]. - Investment advice: The futures price difference of corn starch has complex influencing factors and is expected to have small fluctuations [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is stable. The import of grains is decreasing, and the inventory reduction in Northeast China is accelerating. The drought in North China wheat may affect the market [37]. - Investment advice: Before the May delivery, pay attention to inventory reduction in Northeast China and North China wheat production. Otherwise, the second - round upward repair of old - crop corn may be driven by the tightening of inventory after the May delivery [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early April, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased, and the inventory increased. The steel price oscillated, and the market driver is not obvious. The market is waiting for policy signals and the impact of administrative crude steel production cuts [38][40]. - Investment advice: Be cautious about steel price rebounds, operate with light positions, and use spot for rebound hedging [41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - In March 2025, the production of domestic cathode copper increased. The US copper industry called for export restrictions instead of tariff policies. The global economic downturn concerns and domestic supply - demand conditions may suppress copper prices [42][44]. - Investment advice: In the short term, copper prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to conduct band operations unilaterally and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage [44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon production plan is expected to increase, but the high inventory and weak demand may put pressure on the spot price. The number of registered warehouse receipts is limited [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on PS2506 at low prices and shorting PS2511 at high prices unilaterally. Hold the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The demand for industrial silicon raw materials is weak, and the price of silica has decreased regionally. The supply is loose, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is affected by factors such as factory production reduction and policy [47]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to shorting opportunities after the price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The discovery of high - grade tin - tantalum mineralization in a project may affect the market sentiment. The short - term supply reduction may help the price stabilize, but the long - term external demand is uncertain due to the tariff war [50][51]. - Investment advice: Short - term lithium prices may stabilize, and short positions can consider taking profits. In the medium - long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME will add two nickel delivery warehouses in Hong Kong. The macro - market and supply - demand factors affect nickel prices. The current nickel price may be oversold, and there are opportunities for upward repair [52][53]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices, manage positions well, and find short - matching varieties to hedge risks [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price oscillated, following macro - news. The supply of primary lead decreased, and the raw material of recycled lead was in short supply. The import window of crude lead opened, and the inventory decreased slightly [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, wait and see. Hold previous long positions and wait for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME approved four LME - approved warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The zinc price oscillated downward, and the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing. In the short term, zinc prices will oscillate widely, and in the medium term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [56][58]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to shorting opportunities on medium - term rebounds near the moving average. For arbitrage, remain on the sidelines for inter - period and hold the internal - external positive arbitrage in the medium term [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory increased, and the IEA lowered the global oil demand growth forecast. The oil price oscillated, and the market is pessimistic about the demand outlook [59][60]. - Investment advice: The short - term crude oil price will maintain an oscillating pattern [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreased, and the basis strengthened slightly. The terminal demand is affected by tariffs, and the supply - side inventory decreased due to maintenance. In the short term, it may rebound slightly, but in the long term, it is bearish [62][63]. - Investment advice: The rebound height of the PTA industry chain is limited, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is for rigid needs. The future supply may increase, and the demand is restricted by the downstream's acceptance of high - price复合肥 [65][66]. - Investment advice: The urea price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the demand in traditional and new delivery areas [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of Shandong styrene decreased. The styrene price oscillated weakly, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively better than that of pure benzene. However, the demand after May is still under pressure [67][68]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profits on the strategy of expanding the styrene - pure benzene price difference. The styrene price is expected to be under pressure [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased steadily. The supply increased, and the demand improved. The price may have bottomed out, but there is still macro - uncertainty [69]. - Investment advice: Temporarily wait and see [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some local price drops. The pulp price is affected by the macro - environment [71]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly, and the trading was poor. The market is affected by tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [74]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and the scale and type of domestic stimulus policies [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories decreased locally. The bottle chip market is affected by raw materials and tariffs. The supply and demand both increase, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate at a low level [75][76]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips will oscillate in a low - level range [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - In 2025, the national carbon emission trading market work started. Three industries will be included in the carbon market, and the carbon emission price is expected to be under pressure [77]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will be under pressure [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the southwest market oscillated at a low level. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [79]. - Investment advice: The soda ash futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium term [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price decreased, and the demand in different regions is different [80]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the near - month contract will be under pressure. Consider going long on distant - month contracts on large pullbacks, but the rebound space is not optimistic [81][82]. 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC is expected to become the world's largest terminal operator. The spot index is lower than expected, and the market is worried about the excess capacity on the US line [83]. - Investment advice: The excess capacity on the US line may suppress the upward space of the market. The European line will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to sentiment over - selling [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly volatile due to the uncertainty of the trade war, and investors are advised to pay close attention to Sino - US policy changes and adopt a cautious approach in the short term [16]. - Gold prices have reached a new high, driven by the decline in market trust in the US dollar's credit due to the US government's erratic tariff policies [2]. - In the bond market, positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [20]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the supply of soybeans in South America is expected to be abundant, which will put pressure on the spot and basis of soybean meal; the production of Malaysian palm oil is recovering, but international demand is still weak [25][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US March unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected. The US government's 3 - month budget deficit decreased by 32% year - on - year. Gold prices rose more than 3% to a new high, and the US dollar index fell 2%. The market is mainly trading based on tariff issues, and short - term market volatility remains high [12][13]. - Investment advice: Gold shows strength, but be aware of increased market volatility [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The China Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises Development Index in the first quarter reached the highest level since 2020. The Ministry of Commerce organized enterprise symposiums to help foreign - trade enterprises expand domestic sales. The market's upward momentum was slightly weak, and short - term risk - aversion is recommended [15][16]. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - aversion approach in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 65.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 157.5 billion yuan on the day. Positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [18][20]. - Investment advice: Currently, positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly export sales report of soybeans was lower than expected. CONAB raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, and USDA lowered the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 24/25 season. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the large future soybean imports will put pressure on the spot and basis of soybean meal [22][25]. - Investment advice: Pay close attention to the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans and the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans into China [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 10 increased by 29.29% month - on - month. The ending inventory in March increased by 3.52% month - on - month. The report data is slightly bearish for the market. In the long - term, the price of palm oil still depends on the production and export, as well as the price of international diesel and US soybean oil [26][28]. - Investment advice: Focus on production and export in the long - term, and be aware of the short - term impact of Indian replenishment [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The lowest bid price of Indonesian Q3800 power plants is 458 yuan/ton. The coal price is expected to be stable in April and may be supported in May, but lacks upward elasticity [31]. - Investment advice: The supply and demand are weak in April, and the price is expected to change little [31]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Global blast furnace steel mills' pig iron production in March increased by 13.0% month - on - month. The demand for steel is seasonally weakening, and the fundamentals of iron ore are still weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [32]. - Investment advice: Maintain a short - selling position and sell on rebounds [32]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The construction machinery industry may enter a new replacement cycle. The inventory reduction of five major steel products has slowed down. The market sentiment has eased, but the rebound space is limited [33][35]. - Investment advice: Be cautious with light positions in the short term and pay attention to hedging opportunities in the spot market [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The downstream startup rate of starch has declined. The inventory has only slightly decreased due to poor downstream demand. The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to fluctuate around the normal processing fee of 380 [37][38]. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to remain stable [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The total corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has slightly decreased. The outflow of grain sources in the Northeast has accelerated, and the inventory in North ports has declined for two consecutive weeks. The 07 contract is considered undervalued [39][40]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to weather in North China and inventory reduction in the Northeast [40]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The average retail price of sugar in Pakistan has exceeded the government - set limit. The production of sugar in India's Maharashtra state has decreased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of April decreased by 63.85% year - on - year. The macro - environment dominates the sugar market, and the price is expected to be volatile [41][44]. - Investment advice: Domestic sugar prices are resistant to decline, but the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the support level of 18 cents in the external market [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. reduced its holdings. The near - term contract of hogs fell, and the long - term contract rose. Speculators are advised to operate cautiously, and the industry can consider hedging opportunities [46]. - Investment advice: Speculators should be cautious, and the industry can consider hedging [47]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Northwest market is stable. The futures market is affected by the international trade situation and US tariffs, while the spot market is mainly affected by domestic fundamentals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [48]. - Investment advice: The futures and spot markets may deviate, and the short - term trend is volatile [48]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead has slightly decreased. The price of lead is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy can be considered in the medium term [49][50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term and consider a long - position strategy in the medium term [50]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a discount of 12.23 US dollars/ton. The inventory has decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term. A short - selling strategy around 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton is recommended [51][52]. - Investment advice: Short - sell around 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton and consider a long - term positive spread strategy when the time is right [52]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Panama's government confirmed that First Quantum Minerals withdrew its arbitration application. Global copper smelting activity decreased in March. China's copper demand in the second quarter is strong. The short - term strategy for copper can be bullish, but beware of the risk of repeated expectations [53][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish strategy in the short term but be cautious of repeated expectations [57]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sayona and Piedmont plan to merge. Liontown started the production of Australia's first underground lithium mine. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price is expected to decline in the long term [58][60]. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking for short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [60]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GEM and South Korea's ECOPRO signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The price of nickel has rebounded. The short - term macro - sentiment has eased, and investors are advised to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low valuations [61][63]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low valuations [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of Chinese LPG has increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises has increased slightly while the port inventory has decreased. The market is in a repricing stage, and the volatility is high [65][66]. - Investment advice: Reduce risk exposure and be cautious [67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The carbon trading market is inactive, and the price has fallen to 85 yuan/ton. The carbon market in 2025 may be weak, while the CCER market is strong [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. The supply is likely to return, and the demand lacks upward momentum. The Nymex natural gas price is under downward pressure [70]. - Investment advice: The Nymex natural gas price has a downward pressure [71]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The short - term market is dominated by macro factors [72]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of some imported wood pulp has declined. The short - term market is dominated by macro factors [73]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has rebounded, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The short - term market is difficult to predict due to high macro - influence [75]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased, and the market lacks confidence. The price is mainly affected by crude oil in the short term [77]. - Investment advice: The short - term absolute price mainly fluctuates with the crude oil price [79]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers has decreased slightly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [80][81]. - Investment advice: Short - sell on rebounds in the medium term [81]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has slightly decreased. The short - term price is expected to be low, and long - position opportunities on significant pullbacks can be considered [82]. - Investment advice: Consider long - position opportunities on significant pullbacks [83]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotations of bottle chip factories have increased. The price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and oil prices in the short term, and the processing fee fluctuates in a low - level range [84][86]. - Investment advice: The short - term price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and oil prices [86].

2025年04月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属价格反弹；消息面，美联储会议纪要显示大多数官员担心关税对通胀影响持续更久， 一些人表示若通胀持续存在，增长和就业前景却减弱，可能面临"艰难取舍"；几乎全体支持上月会议的放慢 缩表决定，但多人认为此次会议没有信服的放慢理由；特朗普表示暂缓对中国以外国家的关税 90 天；经济数 据方面，欧央行表示贸易战可能拖累欧盟 GDP 约 0.25%，全年增速仅 1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进 口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 64 吨至 1060 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦 敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格走低，点价盘涌现，出现库存去化。 操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行，但凌晨一点之后特朗普宣布对除了中国外的大部分国家关税下调到 10% 且暂缓 90 天增税，外盘铜价大幅上行。精废价差 1500 元左右。交易策略：建议逢 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ■ 一、回购审批情况和回购方案内容 （四）本次股份回购方案的实施对公司的影响 本次回购股份的资金来源为公司自有资金或自筹资金（含银行回购专项贷款等）。本次回购不会对公司 的经营、财务和未来发展产生重大影响，不会导致公司控制权发生变化。 浙江嘉化能源化工股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")分别于2024年3月29日、2024年4月22日召开第十届董 事会第四次会议、2023年年度股东大会，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份方案的议 案》，同意公司以不低于人民币10,000万元、不超过人民币20,000万元的自有资金通过集中竞价交易方 式回购股份，回购价格为不超过11.98元/股，回购期限为自股东大会审议通过回购股份方案之日起不超 过12个月。有关本次回购股份事项的具体情况详见公司于2024年3月30日及2024年4月23日在上海证券交 易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Treasury Futures**: Bullish, suggesting active long - position layout [14] - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term volatility, maintaining a short - term oscillation view [19] - **Gold**: Short - term callback, suggesting reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Cautious, suggesting careful control of positions due to ongoing adjustments [24] - **Stock Index Futures**: Suggesting reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] - **Power Coal**: Stable price, with limited expected fluctuations in the short term [28] - **Iron Ore**: Cautious, suggesting reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] - **Palm Oil**: Bearish in the short term, suggesting a short - selling mindset [34] - **Soybean Oil**: Suggesting attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity [34] - **Sugar**: Short - term bullish support from spot prices, but potential risks from the trade war [39] - **Cotton**: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] - **Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil**: Suggesting light - position and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish for domestic futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans, with different impacts on near - and far - month contracts [50] - **Nickel**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] - **Copper**: Short - term pressure, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggesting holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] - **Lead**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] - **Zinc**: Short - term waiting, suggesting looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] - **Polysilicon**: Suggesting both long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] - **Industrial Silicon**: Suggesting short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] - **Carbon Emissions**: Short - term wide - range oscillation [71] - **Crude Oil**: Expected lower price fluctuation range in the second quarter [74] - **Bottle Chips**: Short - term processing fees in the low - level range [79] - **Caustic Soda**: Limited further downward space for the disk [80] - **Pulp**: Suggesting attention to the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the pulp supply chain [81] - **PVC**: Suggesting waiting and seeing due to non - prominent fundamental contradictions [83] - **Soda Ash**: Maintaining a medium - term view of short - selling at high levels [84] - **Float Glass**: Suggesting looking for long - entry opportunities at large pullbacks in the short term [86] - **Container Freight Index**: Short - term waiting, with near - month contracts in a weak - oscillation state [88] 2. Core Views The report focuses on the impact of the US tariff policy and China's counter - measures on various financial and commodity markets. The trade conflict has led to increased market volatility, risk aversion, and concerns about global economic recession. Different markets show different responses based on their own fundamentals and supply - demand relationships. For example, in the financial market, bond markets may rise, while the US dollar index shows short - term oscillations. In the commodity market, most products face price pressure due to the trade war, but some products are also affected by their own supply - demand factors, such as the potential increase in palm oil inventory and the impact of copper's macro - sentiment and inventory structure on its price. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Treasury Futures) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods starting from April 10, 2025. The central bank conducted 2234 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on April 3, with a net investment of 49 billion yuan [12][13] - Comment: The trade conflict may escalate, and the upward trend of the bond market is relatively certain. Long - term bonds may still have downward space after the holiday, and short - term bonds may rise if the monetary policy turns loose [13] - Investment Advice: Actively conduct long - position layout [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: US Treasury Secretary supports the tariff policy and denies that the US will fall into recession. The White House Chief Economic Advisor says the market crash is not Trump's strategy. The EU is ready to counter the US tariff measures [15][16][17] - Comment: White House officials believe the impact of tariffs on the economy is controllable. Short - term tariffs will continue to cause significant market fluctuations, and the US dollar index will maintain an oscillatory trend [18] - Investment Advice: Short - term oscillation of the US dollar [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Fed Chairman Powell says monetary policy needs to remain cautious. The US March non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations. China imposed a 34% tariff on US - originated imported goods [20][21] - Comment: Gold prices fell by more than 2% on Friday. The US tariff policy and OPEC's production increase led to a decline in market risk appetite, and gold was affected by liquidity. The short - term financial market's risk - aversion sentiment persists, but gold's trade - related premium is limited [21] - Investment Advice: Short - term callback, reducing positions and waiting for better allocation opportunities [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: The US March non - farm employment increased by 228,000, higher than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% [22] - Comment: The labor market remains resilient, but the market's reaction is muted due to tariff risks. The tariff policy has increased inflation risks, and the Fed may be more cautious. The market is worried about economic downturn [24] - Investment Advice: Cautious control of positions due to ongoing adjustments in the US stock market [24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's offline consumption heat index increased by 14.2% year - on - year in the first quarter. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods [25][26] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a global stock market crash. The A - share market will also face significant adjustments. In the short term, the fundamentals and risk appetite are unclear [26] - Investment Advice: Reducing positions and waiting and seeing [27] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - News: Canadian coal shipments in the 13th week of 2025 increased by 6.52% year - on - year [28] - Comment: Short - term steam coal prices will remain stable. The decline in imported coal since March has slightly increased domestic coal demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated. April is the off - season, and the power plant's inventory replenishment cycle has not arrived [28] - Investment Advice: Limited price changes in the short term [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: An Australian mining company plans to produce 2 million tons of iron ore in Madagascar [29] - Comment: The trade conflict has intensified, and the SGX swap price has declined. The black - metal market may be under pressure, especially in the plate - related sectors. The iron ore price may be supported around $90 [29] - Investment Advice: Reducing the holding period and avoiding external risks [30] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Palm Oil/Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil) - News: Malaysian palm oil inventory may increase for the first time in six months in March. CBOT soybean oil fluctuated greatly last week [31][34] - Comment: Market institutions predict that Malaysian palm oil inventory will increase by 3% in March. Domestic palm oil is expected to open lower and maintain a low - level oscillation this week. Soybean oil prices may decline, but the decline of near - month contracts may be greater than that of far - month contracts [33][34] - Investment Advice: Short - selling palm oil in the short term; attention to the 5 - 9 spread reverse arbitrage opportunity for soybean oil [34] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: Brazilian weather risks may support sugar prices. Brazilian sugarcane production is expected to decline. Guangxi's sugar production in the 24/25 season reached 646.08 million tons as of the end of March [35][36][37] - Comment: Domestic sugar mills' sales progress is fast, and spot prices are firm, providing short - term bullish support for the futures market. However, the trade war may bring risks to the sugar market [38][39] - Investment Advice: The current spot price supports the futures market, but the trade war may pose risks [39] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: Xinjiang's spring weather is generally favorable for spring sowing. The US cancelled the tax - free treatment of small - value packages from China. The US cotton export in the week of March 21 - 27 increased week - on - week [40][41][42] - Comment: Although the US cotton weekly export volume increased, the next - year's export prospects face challenges due to the trade war. China's cotton textile exports are blocked, and the cotton market is under pressure [43][44] - Investment Advice: Short - term bearish, suggesting light - position and cautious operation [44] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 477,200 tons week - on - week as of April 3. The real - estate market in some hot cities was active in March [45][46] - Comment: Due to the tariff risk, the external market declined. The black - metal market's fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the long - term demand for hot - rolled coils has risks. Steel prices may decline on Monday [46] - Investment Advice: Light - position operation and using a rebound hedging strategy [47] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: Brazil exported 14.68 million tons of soybeans in March. China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods, and the tariff on US soybeans will reach 47% [48][50] - Comment: The tariff on US soybeans will accelerate China's shift to Brazilian soybeans. The new round of Sino - US trade war is bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, especially for far - month contracts. The inventory of domestic soybean meal will increase in the second half of April [50] - Investment Advice: Bullish for domestic soybean meal futures, bearish for CBOT soybeans. The increase in domestic soybean arrivals will pressure the spot and basis of soybean meal [50] 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The Shanghai nickel futures inventory decreased by 3669 tons in the week of April 4 [51] - Comment: Trump's tariff policy led to a decline in the nickel price. After the release of risk sentiment, the price may return to the previous level. The nickel ore market is tight, and the nickel - iron market is strong, but there is a risk of oversupply [52] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry opportunities after the panic sentiment subsides [53] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: US mining giants are exploring new technologies to extract copper from old mines. Zambia's copper production may increase to nearly 1 million tons in 2025. Southeast Copper's cathode copper production increased by 4.25% year - on - year in the first quarter [54][55][56] - Comment: The US tariff policy and counter - measures have led to concerns about global economic recession, suppressing copper prices. The domestic inventory is weakly destocking, and the inventory change may support copper prices in the future [57] - Investment Advice: Short - term pressure on copper prices, suggesting attention to long - position opportunities after sentiment digestion and focusing on the Shanghai copper inter - period positive arbitrage strategy [57] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Lithium Americas reached a final investment decision on the Thacker Pass lithium mine [58] - Comment: The current fundamentals of lithium prices are bearish. Domestic salt - factory production remains high, demand is weak, and the ore price is falling. The warehouse receipt registration has increased [59] - Investment Advice: Holding previous short positions and not chasing short at the current level [59] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and the LME0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $27.28 per ton on April 2 [60][61] - Comment: The US tariff mainly affects lead - acid battery exports. The lead price decline is due to market risk - aversion and concerns about future exports. The Shanghai lead may open at around 16,800 yuan, and it is recommended to wait for the macro - risk to clear and look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [61] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for long - entry opportunities at low levels in the medium term; holding the internal - external reverse arbitrage [61] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $18.13 per ton on April 2. MMG released its Q4 2024 report, and an Australian silver - zinc mine is approaching restart [62][63] - Comment: The US tariff affects zinc through market risk - aversion and concerns about future consumption in related industries. The Shanghai zinc may open at around 22,500 yuan. The demand is in the process of turning from off - season to peak season, but the short - term price may still be under pressure [64] - Investment Advice: Short - term waiting, looking for medium - term rebound short - selling opportunities; temporarily waiting for inter - period and internal - external arbitrage [64] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: China will impose a 34% tariff on all US - originated imported goods. The polysilicon production in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and the silicon wafer supply will decrease due to the Myanmar earthquake [65] - Comment: The tariff has limited impact on the photovoltaic industry chain. In April, polysilicon may destock slightly, but the spot price may decline after the peak - demand period. The polysilicon warehouse receipt registration will start in April [66] - Investment Advice: Looking for long - entry at low levels for PS2506 and short - selling at high levels for PS2511; holding the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [67] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: Sichuan sample silicon enterprises are gradually resuming production [68] - Comment: Xinjiang's large - scale silicon plants have reduced production, and the southwest region is slowly resuming production. The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon is weak, and the export may decline. The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon is difficult to improve [68] - Investment Advice: Looking for short - selling at high levels after the rebound on the disk and the Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage [69] 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The EUA main contract closed at €63.82 per ton on April 4, down 3.39% from the previous day and 7.24% week - on - week [70] - Comment: The US tariff policy led to a decline in the European natural gas price and carbon price. The short - term carbon market needs to pay attention to the macro - environment. The EU's emissions decreased by 5% in 2024 [70] - Investment Advice: Short - term wide - range oscillation of the EU carbon price [71] 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The US oil rig count increased to 489 as of April 4. OPEC + decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May [72][73] - Comment: The US tariff policy and OPEC +'s production increase led to a significant decline in oil prices. The global trade friction has worsened the oil demand outlook, and the market is worried about OPEC +'s unity and the stability of the production - cut agreement [73] - Investment Advice: The oil price fluctuation range is expected to be lower in the second quarter [74