炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：政策预期有望上修，市场交投有望活跃，在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗 鼓，拾级而上并站上新高度。跨年攻势已经开始，看好科技/券商保险/消费。 摘要 ▶在较长时间的横盘震荡后，中国"转型牛"将重振旗鼓，拾级而上。11月24日上证指数跌至3800点悲观 之际，国泰海通策略团队判断"关键位置：进入击球区，布出先手棋"，近两周以来创业板指已基本收复 失地。对于后市，国泰海通比市场共识更乐观：部分投资者以"跨周期"解读政策不积极存在谬误，2025 年超常规是相较以2024年尾部风险暴露。面向2026年，中央经济工作会议明确"巩固拓展经济稳中向好 势头"，并要求财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主导"，首次提出"推动投资止跌回稳"（2025年负增长）， 并时隔十年重提房地产"去库存"；中财办副主任韩文秀表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，继续实 施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，隐含了实现"十五五"良好开局的开门红重要性。考虑近期经济 活动转淡与房地产销售面积下滑加快，政策预期有望上修。在人民币稳定的前提下， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of PPI as a significant macroeconomic theme for 2026, which is expected to strengthen corporate profitability and provide solid fundamental support compared to 2025 [7][19][20] - The report predicts that the net profit growth rate for the non-financial sector of the entire A-share market is expected to exceed 10% in 2026, driven by the recovery of PPI [20][22] - The report highlights that the recovery slope of PPI will depend on the degree of fiscal expansion, with a steeper recovery indicating stronger market performance [26][32] Group 2 - The report identifies key industry configurations for 2026, including sectors benefiting from U.S. interest rate cuts, external demand, AI, price increases, and an active capital market [8][19] - Specific sectors such as industrial metals, electric grid equipment, energy storage, battery materials, and certain chemicals are expected to benefit from increased external demand and U.S. capital expenditure expansion [8][19] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, will continue to see high demand and potential growth, with a focus on software, media, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][19][40] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will present a favorable time window for growth performance, driven by domestic policy initiatives and external interest rate cuts [7][44] - The potential for a "spring rally" is highlighted, with expectations that it may occur earlier than usual due to clearer interest rate cut expectations and favorable market conditions [7][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pace of resident deposit migration and foreign capital inflow as critical variables influencing market dynamics [7][36][41]

Group 1 - The macro effects brought by AI investment will be more important than AI itself, as evidenced by the significant drop in AI tech stocks like Oracle and Broadcom, which reflects market concerns about future performance despite increased capital expenditure guidance [2][12][13] - The recent drop in AI stocks does not affect the upward adjustment of AI investment guidance, indicating a divergence between AI stock performance and the broader macroeconomic benefits of AI investment [2][12][33] Group 2 - The recent interest rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's announcement to purchase short-term government bonds are expected to strengthen the trend of investment exceeding consumption in the real economy [3][15][17] - The rising unemployment rate and declining average hourly wages in the U.S. are likely to catalyze further interest rate cuts, with a potential path from AI investment to monetary policy and then to real economic demand recovery [3][17] Group 3 - The Central Economic Work Conference in China has set the tone for expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution," clarifying the path out of deflation [4][20][22] - The focus on expanding domestic demand has shifted from government-led initiatives to endogenous drivers, emphasizing income growth for a broader population and activating private capital [4][22][23] - The conference's emphasis on "anti-involution" in the manufacturing sector is crucial for corporate profit recovery, which historically leads to improvements in employment and wages [4][23][26] Group 4 - Despite market volatility related to AI stock performance and interest rate expectations, the actual impacts on the fundamentals should be the focus, as AI investment continues to be adjusted upwards and will stimulate manufacturing demand [5][33] - Recommendations include focusing on industrial resource chains benefiting from AI investment and the recovery of global manufacturing, as well as opportunities in China's equipment exports and consumer sectors [5][33]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The report indicates that after a prolonged period of sideways movement, China's "transformation bull market" is expected to regain momentum and reach new heights, with a cross-year offensive already underway [1][3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,800 points on November 24, which was seen as a critical position for market recovery, with the ChiNext Index having recently regained lost ground [7][9] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of the economy, calling for a more proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand [4][8] Group 2: Spring Market Trends - Historical analysis shows that spring market trends typically occur from December of the previous year to April of the current year, with a significant start point around 10-15 trading days before the Spring Festival [9][10] - The report notes that large-cap stocks tend to perform better before the Spring Festival, while small-cap stocks often outperform after the festival due to seasonal liquidity improvements [10][12] - The current market environment, characterized by significant prior adjustments and supportive policies, presents an important window for positioning ahead of the spring market [10][12] Group 3: Industry Comparisons - The report highlights a positive outlook for technology, financial services, and consumer sectors as the market transitions into a cross-year offensive [4][8] - In the technology sector, advancements in AI models and applications are accelerating, with a recommendation for investments in internet, media, computing, and competitive manufacturing sectors [4][8] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from deepened capital market reforms, with recommendations for brokerage and insurance stocks [4][8] - The consumer sector is showing signs of recovery after three years of adjustment, with recommendations for low-priced, low-inventory consumer stocks such as food and beverage, agriculture, and tourism services [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it is expected to outperform the overall market in the coming months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the central government's economic meetings have emphasized the need for structural reforms in the financial sector, aiming for a more efficient capital market and improved financial supply-side reforms [2][21]. - The insurance sector is expected to undergo a systematic revaluation, driven by the asset side's influence on company valuations, with a focus on sustainable business models and risk management [2][10]. - The brokerage sector is currently experiencing a mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, with potential catalysts including mergers and acquisitions and upcoming performance reports [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,580.95 with a slight decline of -0.08%, while the non-banking index rose by 0.81% to 1,991.97. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported respective changes of +0.31%, +2.36%, and -1.62% [5][6]. Non-Banking Industry Data - As of December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 18,247.40 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 14.23% from the previous month [15][44]. - The financing balance in the margin trading market reached 25,079.82 billion yuan, an increase of 34.5% compared to the end of 2024 [15][48]. Non-Banking Industry News - The central bank reported that in the first eleven months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 15.36 trillion yuan, and the total social financing scale reached 33.39 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's total [16]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is set to introduce new regulations on public fund sales to address long-standing issues in the industry [17]. Individual Stock Highlights - China Life Insurance reported total premiums exceeding 700 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025 [29]. - The brokerage sector saw significant stock performance, with Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities leading in gains [7][12].

行 业 及 产 业 非银金融 头部非银机构监管红利有望释放 2025 年 12 月 14 日 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 sunjq@swsresearch.com 金黎丹 A0230525060004 jinld@swsresearch.com 联系人 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 luozh@swsresearch.com 看好 ——非银金融行业周报（2025/12/8-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - ⚫ 券商：本周申万券商 II 指数收涨 0.31%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.39pct。1）中央政治局会议： 2025/12/8，中央政治局会议召开，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。会议指出明年经济工作要坚持 "稳中求进、提质增效"（2025 年表述为"稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集 成、协同配合"）。就证 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the macro effects of AI investment will be more significant than the performance of AI stocks themselves, as evidenced by the recent downturn in AI tech stocks despite an increase in capital expenditure guidance from companies like Oracle [10][11]. - The report highlights that the recent drop in AI stocks is linked to market concerns about future earnings realization, particularly regarding order completion, growth sustainability, and profit margins [10][11]. - It is noted that the investment in AI is expected to continue driving macroeconomic effects, with a shift in focus from AI stock performance to sectors benefiting from AI investment [10][11]. Group 2 - The report discusses the recent interest rate cuts in overseas markets, which are expected to reinforce the trend of investment exceeding consumption, particularly in the context of rising AI investment [16][19]. - It mentions that the Federal Reserve's focus may shift towards unemployment rates rather than inflation concerns, with a potential for multiple rate cuts if unemployment surpasses the 4.5% threshold [19]. - The anticipated pathway from AI investment to monetary policy and then to the real economy is outlined, suggesting that aggressive AI investment could lead to increased unemployment, prompting further rate cuts and stimulating global manufacturing investment [19]. Group 3 - The report summarizes the outcomes of the recent Central Economic Work Conference in China, which emphasizes expanding domestic demand and addressing "involution" in the manufacturing sector as key strategies to combat deflation [24][27]. - It indicates that the focus on expanding domestic demand will shift from government-led initiatives to enhancing residents' income and activating private capital [24][27]. - The report also highlights that the recovery of corporate profits is crucial for improving employment and wages, with signals of a profit bottom emerging in Q3 2025 [27][31]. Group 4 - The report asserts that despite market volatility related to AI stock performance and interest rate expectations, the fundamental impacts of ongoing AI investments and the stimulus from rate cuts on manufacturing demand remain strong [4][43]. - It recommends focusing on sectors that will benefit from increased AI investment and the anticipated recovery in global manufacturing, including industrial resource chains and non-bank financial services [4][45]. - The report also identifies opportunities in China's equipment exports and manufacturing sectors that are poised for a bottom reversal, alongside a recovery in consumer spending driven by increased capital inflows [4][45].

Group 1 - The core focus of the Central Economic Work Conference is to expand domestic circulation, similar to last year, but with significant differences in expectations and pricing for domestic and foreign demand stocks [10][11] - There is a strong performance expectation for overseas exposure stocks, but the difficulty in valuation increases, while domestic demand stocks have potential for valuation recovery if they exceed expectations [10][11] - The market is expected to see a short-term positive trend following the conference, with historical data indicating that the market style tends to perform well in the week following the conference [12] Group 2 - The spring market is anticipated to be a small-scale rally, with a focus on short-term price-performance opportunities in technology and cyclical sectors [13][14] - Key themes from the conference include commercial aerospace, robotics, and other sectors related to the ocean economy and energy security [13][14] - The investment strategy should focus on sectors benefiting from supply-side reforms and consumer demand stimulation, particularly in services and non-durable goods [13][14] Group 3 - The market is characterized by volatility, with a recommendation to adopt a cautious approach and wait for better entry points [16][17] - Specific sectors to watch include brokerage firms, home appliances, and mechanical equipment, with a focus on stocks that are currently undervalued [16][17] - The policy environment is expected to support structural adjustments and "anti-involution" measures, creating opportunities in social services and resource sectors [16][17] Group 4 - The investment outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from valuation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics, with continued monetary easing expected [18] - Key narratives for the future include AI technology, safety, and industry expansion, which are anticipated to provide medium to long-term investment certainty [18] - Asset allocation strategies should focus on passive investments for risk diversification and active management for capitalizing on market trends [19]

来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 核心观点 本周市场明显分化、呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲高回落。展望后市，由于以上证为代表的权 重指数勉强站上5 周均线，但还未收复前期上升趋势线；而在算力链"强势吸金"的背后，市场出现明显 分化格局。我们预计，在"权重不够强、行业大分化"的局面下，市场或继续维持区间震荡格局。配置方 面，基于"市场分化震荡继续，多看少动守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、 垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标，伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置，建议 关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块、走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，以及近期利好频出 的机械设备。个股方面，留意医药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方低位滞 涨个股。 本周（2025-12-08 至2025-12-12）行情概况（1）主要指数：市场呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲 高回落。（2）板块观察：算力携硬科技领涨，大周期和消费走弱。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比上 升，IC 股指期货合约升水。（4）资金流向：两融余额小幅上升，有色金属ETF 净流入最多。（5）量 化"黑 ...

- The report discusses the **ETF Risk Appetite Index**, which has been declining since September 19, indicating a contraction in market risk appetite. This is evidenced by the outperformance of low-valuation stocks over high-valuation stocks and a gradual decline in trading volume. However, the **Active Capital Indicator** shows that speculative funds remain active, particularly in technology-related ETFs like cloud computing, military, and science innovation, while defensive ETFs like dividend and consumption are underperforming. This suggests a fragile market balance where risk appetite is declining, but active funds are narrowing their focus within the technology sector[1][11] - The report highlights the **High-Frequency Trading Regulation Impact**, which aims to level the playing field by increasing transaction delays and removing exclusive equipment. The regulation primarily targets microsecond-level ultra-high-frequency trading strategies, which are mostly proprietary or market-making strategies. These strategies have minimal impact on the overall market due to their small scale, typically under 100 million RMB per product. The report concludes that the regulation has limited influence on the profitability of quantitative strategies, as their excess returns are driven by asset pricing rather than trading speed. The report also notes that market volatility recovery could further enhance quantitative excess returns[2][12] - The report analyzes the **Micro-Cap Stock Trends**, noting that short-term fluctuations are influenced by hedging products, while medium-term trends are supported by incremental funds from quantitative products. Since December, the issuance of quantitative products has remained robust, though the proportion of "air index enhancement" (quantitative stock selection) has decreased by 12%, while "1000 index enhancement" and other index enhancements have increased. This shift has slightly reduced the allocation to micro-cap stocks. Additionally, as market risk appetite declines, funds are concentrating on high-growth sectors, strengthening mid-cap stocks like CSI 500 and CSI 1000. Despite short-term adjustments, the report remains optimistic about medium-term inflows into micro-cap stocks[3][13]