Core Viewpoint - The company is undergoing a significant asset restructuring involving the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary, 中盐碱业, through a capital reduction agreement with 太湖投资, which will allow the company to fully control the mining rights for natural soda ash in Inner Mongolia [2][3][27]. Group 1: Restructuring Details - 中盐化工 and 太湖投资 will jointly establish 中盐碱业 with a registered capital of 40 million yuan, where 太湖投资 contributes 20.4 million yuan (51%) and 中盐化工 contributes 19.6 million yuan (49%) [2]. - 中盐碱业 successfully acquired the mining rights for natural soda ash in the Daqintala area of Inner Mongolia for 6.80866 billion yuan [2][89]. - Following the capital reduction, 中盐化工 will hold 100% of 中盐碱业, which will be included in the company's consolidated financial statements [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Assistance - 中盐化工 plans to provide financial assistance to 中盐碱业, with a total loan amount not exceeding 6.8 billion yuan, to ensure timely payment for the mining rights [88][90]. - The loan will be charged at an interest rate not lower than the bank's prevailing loan rate [88]. - This financial support is crucial for 中盐碱业 to fulfill its obligations related to the mining rights acquisition and aligns with 中盐化工's strategic goal of enhancing its competitiveness in the natural soda ash sector [90][92]. Group 3: Governance and Compliance - The restructuring and capital reduction have been approved by the board of directors and will be submitted for shareholder approval [3][27]. - The restructuring does not constitute a related party transaction, as 太湖投资 and 中盐化工 are not related parties under relevant regulations [27]. - The company has ensured compliance with all legal and regulatory requirements throughout the restructuring process [38][47].

Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rise, with the Chemical ETF (516020) showing a maximum intraday increase of 1.83% and closing up 1.53% [1] - Notable stocks in the sector include lithium battery, soda ash, and fluorine chemical companies, with significant gains from Hebang Biological (up 4.76%) and Tianci Materials (up 4.03%) [1] - The chemical sector has attracted significant capital, with a net inflow of 26.418 billion yuan over the past five days, ranking second among 30 sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is benefiting the lithium battery sector, as it leads to project delays and a healthier supply-demand balance [3] - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, facing challenges from increased competition, but supply-side reforms are expected to optimize the industry structure [4] - The current valuation of the Chemical ETF (516020) is at a low point, suggesting a good opportunity for long-term investment [4] Group 3 - The chemical sector is expected to undergo a re-pricing based on cost factors, focusing on green and low-carbon initiatives [5] - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while international uncertainties in chemical supply are increasing [5] - The Chemical ETF (516020) provides a diversified investment opportunity across various sub-sectors, with a significant portion allocated to large-cap leading stocks [6]

Market Overview - The market shows a clear bullish sentiment with 46 contracts rising and 31 contracts falling today, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving varieties [2] - The main contracts with significant price increases include焦煤2509 (+7.97%), 碳酸锂2509 (+7.21%), and 玻璃2509 (+6.87%), driven by supply and demand factors [4] Fund Flow - The most significant inflows were seen in 碳酸锂2509 (1.674 billion), 中证1000 2509 (846 million), and 沪深300 2509 (803 million), indicating strong interest from major funds [6] - Conversely, the largest outflows were from 沪金2510 (-2.829 billion), 纯碱2509 (-2.52 billion), and 沪银2510 (-954 million), suggesting a withdrawal of funds from these contracts [6] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were observed in 碳酸锂2509 (+20.62%), 焦煤2509 (+13.02%), and 沪铅2509 (+12.40%), indicating new funds entering the market and high trading enthusiasm [8] - Significant decreases in open interest were noted in 棉纱2509 (-12.76%), 纯碱2509 (-10.66%), and 豆粕2509 (-9.27%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds and warranting attention for future performance [8] Industry Insights - Recommendations for the multi-crystalline silicon and photovoltaic industry emphasize the need for careful planning to avoid blind investment cycles, with a focus on international collaboration and long-term strategic goals [9] - The domestic pure soda inventory decreased by 2.15% to 1.8646 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in stock levels, although overall inventory remains historically high [10][11] - The production of rebar steel increased by 1.39% to 2.1196 million tons, with a notable increase in demand from steel mills, suggesting a resilient market despite potential short-term corrections [12][15] Commodity Specific Analysis - The焦煤 market is experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints and strong demand from steel mills, with prices reaching a five-month high [18] - The碳酸锂 market is influenced by supply uncertainties and strong speculative interest, with prices hitting a new high, although long-term supply from South American projects may limit further increases [19][20] - The玻璃 market is buoyed by positive macroeconomic sentiment and inventory reductions, with prices reaching a five-month high, although future performance will depend on policy developments and demand from the real estate sector [21]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus is on the recent surge in soda ash futures prices, with a notable increase of 6.75% reaching 1440.00 yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and potential volatility in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Soda ash futures experienced a rapid increase, peaking at 1449.00 yuan, reflecting a strong upward trend in the market [1]. - New Lake Futures views the short-term outlook for soda ash as oscillating with a slight upward bias, citing stable yet slightly strong trends in the spot market [2]. - According to Wenkang Futures, the market sentiment remains high, with stable spot prices and a slight decrease in inventory pressure, although the supply-demand imbalance persists [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent data shows a 2.43 million ton increase in soda ash production week-on-week, with overall production slightly higher than last year [2]. - Downstream demand remains primarily driven by essential needs, with glass manufacturers supplementing low-priced soda ash, while expectations of reduced production in the photovoltaic glass sector may negatively impact demand [2]. - Inventory levels indicate a decrease of 21,400 tons in factory stocks, primarily in light soda ash, while social inventory saw an increase of 8,600 tons week-on-week, highlighting ongoing supply pressures [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall supply situation remains relatively oversupplied, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on prices despite short-term fluctuations due to maintenance disruptions [2]. - The market is advised to monitor macroeconomic policies and raw material costs, particularly coal prices, as these factors could influence market sentiment and pricing strategies [2]. - Wenkang Futures suggests that while short-term price movements may be strong, the long-term outlook remains constrained by fundamental supply-demand issues, recommending a cautious approach to trading strategies [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment has slowed down, and steel prices are fluctuating with a slight upward trend. The glass and soda ash markets have stable spot sales, but their futures opened high and closed low. The double - silicon market has firm spot prices and is operating steadily [1][3]. Group 3: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is basically stable. In the off - season, inventory has decreased but remains high, with significant de - stocking pressure. In the long run, supply and demand are still relatively loose [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures also opened high and closed low yesterday. Downstream transactions are stable, with a wait - and - see attitude. Supply has both复产 and maintenance, with output remaining stable month - on - month. In the summer maintenance period, the operating rate is expected to stay low. With the production cut of photovoltaic glass, demand is expected to weaken further, and there is great annual inventory pressure [1]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures slightly corrected yesterday. The market trading atmosphere is active, and the overall price is firm. The 6517 grade in the northern market is priced at 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton. Production is stable, and demand has resilience due to the recovery of hot metal production. However, high - level inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants suppress prices. The Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered, and prices fluctuate with the sector [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures fluctuated with a slight upward trend yesterday. The market sentiment is good, and the rising futures drive up the spot price. The 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is priced at 5400 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade at 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton. Production has increased month - on - month, while demand has slightly decreased. Inventories are at a medium - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment has improved, and the rising coal price boosts the valuation. In the long run, production capacity is relatively loose [3]. Group 4: Strategies Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight downward trend [2]. Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4]. - **Silicon Iron**: The recommended strategy is to expect price fluctuations with a slight upward trend [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "Oscillating", some as "Oscillating Strongly". For example, steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are in the "Oscillating" category, and the specific ratings are based on the expected price fluctuations within the next 2 - 12 weeks [9][13][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, there are continuous macro - level positive factors. The continuous rally in the market has spurred mid - stream players such as those in the futures - cash business to build positions, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, which was in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the pig iron output of steel enterprises rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. With frequent positive news and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - The news of coal mine over - production inspections was confirmed to be basically true. The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coal industry has deepened. Although some coal mines are resuming production, domestic coal supply is still affected. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke enterprises' profits are still around the break - even point. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke inventories of coke enterprises are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures will oscillate strongly [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - With coke entering the price increase cycle, the cost support for manganese silicon is strengthened. The market sentiment is warm, port miners are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of manganese silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3][7]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price was weak. In the future, the production level of silicon iron is expected to increase, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the sector [7]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, and the deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Although the sales volume was good at the beginning of the week due to downstream restocking, its sustainability is uncertain. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the view of oscillation is maintained [7]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, but it still faces the problem of oversupply after the positive feedback. Currently, the upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The expectation of stable growth in key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of a hydropower project has also brought positive expectations. After the continuous rise in the market, the macro - sentiment has cooled, and the spot price increase has slowed. In the off - season, the fundamental contradictions of steel are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials and lingering macro - sentiment, the futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The small - sample pig iron output remained stable, and the ore price slightly decreased. The spot market quotation decreased, and port transactions dropped significantly. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the small - sample pig iron output of steel enterprises remained stable at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but further upward movement requires new driving factors [9]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel has been low, and the spot price has slightly increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have deteriorated marginally, but the contradictions are not prominent due to low inventories. On the supply side, the arrival volume this week decreased, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills slightly decreased, but the profits of electric furnaces have improved, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has increased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel has slightly increased. The price of scrap steel is expected to follow the sector [10]. Coke - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the upward trend of the futures price has converged. The supply of coke has tightened, while the demand is strong, and the inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. The supply - demand structure is tight, and there is still an expectation of price increases. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Coking Coal - The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coking coal industry is strong, and the upward trend of the futures price continues. The domestic coal supply recovery is slow, and the import volume from Mongolia is high. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although the actual impact of over - production inspections on the fundamentals is small, the market sentiment is hyped, and there is still upward space in the short term [13][14]. Glass - The downstream restocking continues, and the spot sales have improved. The demand in the off - season is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the policy, and in the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, maintaining an oscillating view [14]. Soda Ash - The upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory. The long - term oversupply situation remains, and although there are short - term factors driving up the price, the price is expected to decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15][16]. Manganese Silicon - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The cost is supported, the supply is increasing, and the demand remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price will face pressure [17]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price has weakened. The production level is expected to increase, and the downstream demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand gap will gradually narrow, and the price lacks a continuous upward driving force [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand, while policy benefits continue to boost market sentiment. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: The "anti-involution" policy continues to ferment, boosting market sentiment. Alkali plants have few overhauls, and supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high. The overall outlook is bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,300 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,338 yuan/ton, with a basis of -38 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price. This is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.9056 million tons, an increase of 2.26% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5-year average. This is bearish [4][34]. - Disk: The price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. This is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. This is bearish [4]. - Expectation: Given the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals and the continuous boost of policy benefits, it is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term [4]. Influencing Factors Summary - Bullish Factors: The "anti-involution" policy continues to ferment, boosting market sentiment [5]. - Bearish Factors: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is less than expected, and macroeconomic benefits exceed expectations [6]. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low-end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,375 | 1,330 | -45 | | Current Value | 1,338 | 1,300 | -38 | | Change Rate | -2.69% | -2.26% | -15.56% | [8] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia-alkali method is -135.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co-production method is -95.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is at the lowest level in the same period in history [17]. - Operating Rate and Production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.10%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly production of soda ash is 733,200 tons, including 414,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [20][22]. - Industry Capacity Changes: In 2023, the soda ash capacity expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period. From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are planned new capacity additions. The total planned new capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and the planned new capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [7][23]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 94.24% [26]. - Downstream Demand: - Float Glass: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 157,800 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.63% [29]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in-production daily melting volume has decreased significantly [32]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, but the prices of finished products have slightly declined. In the short term, with the stimulation of eliminating excess production capacity on the supply side and the support of large - scale infrastructure on the demand side, and the current low inventory level, the futures market is expected to continue to strengthen. The significant increase in coal prices also provides good support for the prices of finished products. The market still needs to pay attention to policy signals, especially the policy trends of the Politburo meeting at the end of July, as well as the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [3]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the fundamental direction is still downward, with excess industrial pattern, marginal weakening of future demand, and potential downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations of the futures market. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market in the speculative aspect and pay attention to price - fluctuation risks. The industrial side can consider hedging operations [10]. - For industrial silicon, it still faces problems of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations. It is recommended that the speculative side rationally treat the current market, and the industrial side can carry out hedging operations [15]. - For glass, in the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies, and with continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the long term, if there are substantial policies in the real estate sector, the futures price may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is needed for significant price increases [17]. - For soda ash, in the short term, driven by market sentiment and the rising coal - chemical sector, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, and the upward space is limited [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3274 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (- 0.99%) from the previous trading day, with 86534 tons of registered warehouse receipts (no change from the previous day) and a position of 1.922698 million lots, down 101,809 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai aggregated prices of rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3438 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (- 1.12%), with 58951 tons of registered warehouse receipts, down 598 tons, and a position of 1.495321 million lots, down 87,124 lots. The Shanghai aggregated price of hot - rolled coils decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory slightly accumulated; for hot - rolled coils, production decreased, demand slightly increased, and inventory decreased. The inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest levels in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Inventory**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 812.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.34% (- 11.00), and the position changed by - 39,963 lots to 579,900 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 1.0489 million lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 26.94 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.21% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest overseas iron ore shipments increased month - on - month. Australia's shipments continued to decline due to port maintenance, while those from Brazil and non - mainstream countries increased, with Brazil contributing the main increment. The near - end arrivals decreased month - on - month. The average daily hot - metal output was 242.44 tons, up 2.63 tons. Port inventories slightly increased, and steel mills' imported ore inventories were consumed [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 1.23% at 5938 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5860 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of 112 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.72% at 5832 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a discount of 82 yuan/ton to the futures [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamental direction is downward, with an excess industrial pattern, marginal weakening of future demand, and potential downward adjustment of manganese ore and electricity prices. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 1.35% at 9525 yuan/ton. The spot price of 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton, with a premium of 225 yuan/ton over the futures; the 421 was 10250 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton, with a discount of 75 yuan/ton to the futures [13]. - **Fundamentals**: It still faces problems of oversupply and insufficient effective demand. In the short term, the bullish sentiment of commodities dominates the price fluctuations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. As of July 17, 2025, the total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises was 64.939 million weight boxes, down 2.163 million weight boxes (- 3.22%) month - on - month and up 0.29% year - on - year. In the short term, it is boosted by macro - policies, and in the long term, it depends on real - estate policies and supply - side contraction [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1320 yuan, down 40 yuan. As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers was 1.8842 million tons, down 21,400 tons (- 1.12%). In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists [18].

招商证券股份有限公司 关于中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司本次重大 资产重组产业政策和交易类型核查意见 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司（以下简称"中盐化工"或"上市公司"）的 参股公司中盐（内蒙古）碱业有限公司拟实施定向减资。本次交易构成上市公司 重大资产重组。 招商证券股份有限公司（以下简称"独立财务顾问"）作为本次交易的独立 财务顾问，根据中国证券监督管理委员会《监管规则适用指引—上市类第1号》 《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第6号—重大资产重组》等法律法规、 规范性文件的要求，对本次交易涉及的产业政策和交易类型进行了核查，具体如 下： 本独立财务顾问核查后认为：本次交易所涉及的交易类型属于同行业并购， 不构成重组上市。 三、本次重大资产重组是否涉及发行股份 本独立财务顾问核查后认为：本次重大资产重组不涉及发行股份。 四、上市公司是否存在被中国证监会立案稽查尚未结案的情形 截至本核查意见出具日，上市公司不存在被中国证监会立案稽查尚未结案的 情形。 本独立财务顾问核查后认为：截至本核查意见出具日，中盐化工不存在被中 国证监会立案稽查尚未结案的情形。 （以下无正文） 一、本次交易涉及的行业或企业是否属于《监管规则 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **soda ash industry** and its supply-demand dynamics for the first half of 2025, highlighting significant cost reductions and production capacity changes [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cost Reduction**: The marginal cost of soda ash decreased significantly from **1,500-1,600 RMB/ton** to **1,000-1,200 RMB/ton** due to falling prices of coal and raw salt, with raw salt prices dropping from **300 RMB/ton** to **210 RMB/ton** or lower, resulting in a cost reduction of over **100 RMB/ton** [1][9]. - **Production Capacity**: Approximately **2 million tons** of new production capacity was added in the first half of 2025, bringing the total national capacity to **41.1 million tons**. The production ramp-up is in line with expectations, but actual output has not met projections due to maintenance [1][2]. - **Market Dynamics**: Despite increased capacity, the market is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand. Exports reached nearly **1 million tons** in the first half of 2025, alleviating domestic oversupply pressures [2][8]. - **Key Production Metrics**: Daily production peaked at **10.8-10.9 thousand tons** but fell to **9.2-9.3 thousand tons** during low periods. A critical threshold is identified at **9.5 thousand tons/day**, below which a temporary supply gap may occur [3][5]. - **Glass Market Impact**: The float glass market is experiencing stable daily melting rates around **15.6 thousand tons**, with a slight overcapacity. The photovoltaic glass market is currently in a state of oversupply, which could significantly impact soda ash demand if daily melting rates drop to **77 thousand tons** [6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Levels**: The visible inventory remains high, with factory stocks around **1.8-2 million tons** and total social inventory approximately **2.1 million tons**. This high inventory level poses potential pressure on the market [2][8]. - **Production Methods**: The production methods for soda ash include ammonia-soda process (36% share), joint-soda process (43% share), and natural soda process (17% share). Despite price declines, the overall operating rates have remained stable [4]. - **Future Capacity Projections**: In 2026, new capacity additions are expected from Yuanqing and Jinshan, totaling about **4.8 million tons**, which will exacerbate the existing overcapacity situation [2][15]. - **Cost Structure**: The cost structure varies by production method, with ammonia-soda process costs around **1,130 RMB/ton** and joint-soda process costs approximately **1,000 RMB/ton**. If raw salt prices rise, costs could increase significantly [10][11]. - **Environmental Policies**: Environmental regulations may lead to the elimination of outdated production capacities in the glass industry, which is a significant downstream consumer of soda ash [14]. - **Challenges in Capacity Reduction**: The industry faces challenges in reducing capacity due to the dominance of large firms with resource advantages, making it difficult to implement effective capacity cuts [12][13]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to face continued pressure from high inventory levels and potential overcapacity, necessitating price adjustments to achieve a new supply-demand balance [15][17].