1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the caustic soda in the alumina industry chain is "Long" [1] - The investment rating for alumina in the alumina industry chain is "Bullish" [3] - The investment rating for aluminum in the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" [4] 2. Core Views - For caustic soda, influenced by the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the futures price continues to rise, with good fundamentals. There may be a short - term correction after a significant increase, and a long - term bullish view is maintained, with short - term prices expected to oscillate slightly [1] - For alumina, the industry's supply - demand situation has improved, supporting the price. It is expected that the alumina price will oscillate slightly higher in the short term, and the actual production capacity changes should be monitored [3] - For aluminum, due to the improvement of international trade and domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals, the aluminum price is supported. After the release of the US April CPI data, the market sentiment may change. The continuous decline of domestic aluminum ingot inventory has raised some concerns, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose during the day, fell after the night - session opening, and closed at 2533 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.85%. The trading volume was 70.64 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 2.046 million lots, an increase of 23,450 lots; the trading volume was 52.676 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - The weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.39%, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic caustic soda output was 829,500 tons, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic factory inventory was 249,100 tons, a 1.66% decrease from the previous week - The weekly cost per hundred tons was 182.51 yuan/ton, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week; the gross profit per hundred tons was 1,189.8 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease from the previous week [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 950.46 yuan/ton, a 3.48 - yuan or 0.37% increase from the previous statistical day. The domestic liquid caustic soda spot market transaction price continued to rise. The North China market had good transactions, supported by alumina demand orders and recent chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, with a good supply - demand situation. Other regions had stable transactions, with low inventory pressure and active sales [1] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold low - position long orders [1] 3.2 Alumina 3.2.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose in the afternoon, slightly declined at night, and closed at 2832 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.60%. The trading volume was 95.49 million lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; the open interest was 3.842 million lots, a decrease of 1735 lots; the trading volume was 53.764 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Last week, the domestic alumina factory inventory was 1.585 million tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 76,000 tons, a 52% increase from the previous week - This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.6374 million tons, a 4.6% decrease from the previous week, and the weekly operating utilization rate was 77.2%, a 7.36% decrease - The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3332.86 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week; the industry gross profit was - 436.59 yuan/ton, a 1.19% increase from the previous week [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The average price of the spot market was 2905.71 yuan/ton, an 11.68 - yuan or 0.40% increase from the previous trading day. The spot market inventory continued to decline, and the spot transaction price was at a premium to the futures price. The overall supply has not changed recently, and the industry operating rate remained at 78.25%. The spot market transactions increased recently, with prices ranging from 2900 - 2960 yuan/ton, boosting market sentiment. Overseas, the alumina market supply was tight, supporting price increases, but the domestic alumina export advantage was limited, and the import - export pattern has not changed in the short term [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [3] 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2506 contract continued to rise, jumped and then corrected at night, and closed at 19,935 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The trading volume was 40.43 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 5.492 million lots, a decrease of 22,204 lots; the trading volume was 39.866 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [4] 3.3.2 Important Information - The weekly bauxite output was 1.124 million tons, a 1.72% increase from the previous week - The weekly electrolytic aluminum output was 84.07 tons, unchanged from the previous week - This week, the industry production cost was 16,794.64 yuan/ton, a 0.65% decrease from the previous week. The industry average gross profit was 2876.67 yuan/ton, a 7.33% decrease from the previous week - The factory inventory during the week was 55,200 tons, a 14.95% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 65,200 tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week; the LME inventory was 403,500 tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 65,000 tons, a 1.65% decrease from the previous week - On May 9th, the LME aluminum price rose, ranging from 2399 - 2440 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2418 US dollars/ton, up 9.5 US dollars/ton or 0.39% [4] 3.3.3 Market Logic - The international trade situation has improved significantly, with the easing of Sino - US tariffs and a positive international macro - situation, boosting commodity prices, and both domestic and foreign aluminum prices have risen. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory has decreased again. According to the CPCA, the cumulative retail sales of new - energy passenger cars from January to April were 3.324 million units, a 35.7% increase, and new - energy vehicle consumption continues to support the rise of the aluminum price. Domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals support the aluminum price [4] 3.3.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [4]

中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月12日 --------山东地区氯碱企业开工下滑 氯碱价格双双走强，利润创新高 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为83.9%，较上周环比-0.2%。西北、华东、华南、西南新增重启或提负，带动负荷不同程度提升，周内华 | | | | 北有装置减产导致负荷下滑。山东产能利用率-2.2%至88.6%。本周来看，西北、华南、西南均有装置减产及检修，因此综合来看，预计下周烧碱产能利用率降 | | | | 至83.6%左右，周产量80万吨左右。（预估数据源自隆众资讯） | | | 氧化铝 | 山东地区主要氧化铝厂家采购32%离子膜碱自4月13日起价格下调15元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, mid - to long - term, alumina profit is worrying due to over - expansion, demand for caustic soda is insufficient, and new production capacity is being launched, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, the supply side is in the concentrated maintenance stage, pre - holiday alumina demand has improved, and the spot price has increased, with the futures price also strengthening after the holiday. [2] - For PVC, the supply - demand surplus is prominent, domestic demand is weak due to the weak real - estate chain, exports are supported in the first quarter but mostly through price cuts. After the "Golden March and Silver April" period, the terminal demand will be weak during the rainy season. The BIS extension to June may lead to an early export boom, and if it is finally implemented, it will have a negative impact on PVC. [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: Macro turned weak, caustic soda operation rate was higher year - on - year, and the liquid caustic soda plant inventory stopped decreasing weekly. The August contract repaired the basis, and the futures price dropped rapidly. The spot market was in a game, and there were concerns about the supply return and weakening demand. [6] - **Profit**: The current integrated profit of caustic soda is at a normal level in the same period. [12] - **Supply**: Maintenance is gradually concentrated, the operation rate is decreasing, and caustic soda plants are seasonally destocking. As of May 8, the national average operation rate was 87.47%, up 1.14% from last week, while the Shandong region's operation rate was 89.24%, down 0.99% from the previous week. [17][23] - **Demand from Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, the planned alumina production capacity to be put into operation is 12.3 million tons (2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated annual alumina output in 2025 is over 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina demand is equivalent to 400,000 - 550,000 tons of caustic soda per year, and the total demand increment for caustic soda is around 800,000 tons, with 150,000 tons of new demand concentrated from April to June. [28] - **Alumina Profit and Operation Rate**: Alumina profit has recently recovered but is still in the red. As of May 8, the SMM alumina industry profit was estimated at - 60 yuan/ton. The operation rate has been declining, and there is limited demand for caustic soda in the medium term. [35] - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The price has declined, which may further drive down the alumina price. [36] - **Non - aluminum Downstream**: The non - aluminum downstream industries are fragmented, and the impact of tariffs should be noted. [46] - **Export**: The theoretical export profit of caustic soda is at a low level. [53] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Market Situation**: The 09 contract is mainly trading on expectations driven by real - estate, maintenance, and export expectations. The market sentiment was hot, but then the futures price declined due to weak supply - demand drivers and a poor commodity atmosphere. [60] - **Profit**: The overall industry profit of PVC is low. [66] - **Supply**: Seasonal maintenance is concentrated, and the operation rate continues to decline. In March 2025, PVC powder production was 2.04205 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.04% and a year - on - year increase of 0.77%. As of April 24, the overall operation rate was 75.67%. [82] - **Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real - estate sector has a negative impact on demand. After the "Golden March and Silver April" period, the performance of hard products is average, and that of soft products is relatively better, but domestic demand has not improved significantly. [91] - **Real - estate Data**: The new construction area of real - estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively. [92] - **Inventory**: There was a small seasonal inventory increase during the May Day holiday, and the year - on - year inventory pressure is limited. [99] - **External Market**: The Asian PVC market price was stable weekly. The CFR China price was 700 US dollars/ton, Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, and CFR India was 700 US dollars/ton. [118] - **Import and Export**: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products, especially floor coverings. The BIS extension to June may have a negative impact on PVC if it is finally implemented. [117][118]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Urea - Despite high daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline in daily output. The new export policy allows the release of supportive export orders from May to June, and the upcoming summer top - dressing season in May - June is expected to boost agricultural demand. Market price increases are likely to be cautious, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices continued to rise, driven by the progress of China - US trade negotiations and geopolitical uncertainties. In the short term, the market risk appetite has increased, but no strong trend has been formed yet, and the sustainability of the macro - drive needs to be observed. The monthly - line fluctuation ranges are adjusted to [57, 67] for WTI, [60, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [7]. Styrene - Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium term, putting pressure on chemical products. Pure benzene supply has decreased recently, but overall supply pressure remains due to imports. Styrene downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy for styrene, with the upper resistance for the near - term contract at 7300 [13]. PE and PP - For LLDPE, although imports are expected to decline significantly from May to June and supply pressure will gradually decrease, inventory pressure is still large under the situation of weak supply and demand, and there is a long - term downward risk. For PP, supply pressure eases slightly during the second - quarter maintenance season, but production is still high, demand is weakening, and there is also a long - term downward risk [17]. Caustic Soda - In the medium - to - long term, the demand for caustic soda from alumina is insufficient, and new production capacity is being added, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, caustic soda is in the maintenance phase, and the price has been supported. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, with the near - term resistance at 2550 [26]. PVC - The supply - demand surplus of PVC is prominent. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are mainly based on price - for - volume. The long - term surplus problem is difficult to solve, and the price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, but there is a risk of price rebound during the maintenance period [26]. Methanol - The inland valuation has a downward pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered a stock - building period, and the MTO low - operation rate suppresses demand. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract on rallies [35][38]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Tight supply and short - term strong demand support its price, but the rebound space is limited. PX09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and PX9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread situation [40]. - PTA: The supply - demand pattern remains tight in the short term, and the price is expected to be relatively strong compared to oil prices, but the rebound is suppressed. TA09 is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and TA9 - 1 is in a short - term positive spread and medium - term reverse spread situation [40]. - MEG: Domestic supply is expected to increase in May, but short - term de - stocking is expected due to high polyester load and reduced imports. EG09 is expected to be strong in the short term [40]. - Short - fiber: Inventory pressure is low in the short term, but the driving force is weaker than that of raw materials. The processing fee is under pressure, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [40]. - Bottle - chip: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. The processing fee is supported, and the main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - The prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all increased, with increases ranging from 0.22% to 1.26% [1]. Contract Spreads - The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01, and UR - MA main contracts changed, with changes ranging from - 16.00% to 44.83% [1]. Main Positions - The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, with the long positions increasing by 2.05% and the short positions increasing by 2.51%. The long - short ratio decreased slightly [1]. Upstream Raw Materials - Most upstream raw material prices remained stable, except for the port price of steam - coal in Qinhuangdao, which decreased by 0.78% [1]. Spot Market Prices - Spot prices in most regions increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 2.16% [1]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily production decreased slightly, with a 1.20% decline in domestic daily urea production. Weekly production increased slightly by 0.21%, and factory inventory decreased by 10.58% while port inventory increased by 12.71% [3]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 1.34%. Spreads such as Brent - WTI and EFS also changed [7]. Product Prices and Spreads - Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, with increases ranging from 0.53% to 0.71%. Spreads also changed [7]. Crack Spreads - Crack spreads of various refined products changed, with increases ranging from 0.28% to 4.28% for some products and decreases for others [7]. Styrene Upstream - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. The opening rates of domestic pure benzene and styrene increased [10][13]. Spot and Futures - The spot price of styrene in East China decreased slightly by 0.1%, while futures prices EB2506 and EB2507 increased by 1.0% and 1.1% respectively [11]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - Overseas quotes of styrene increased slightly, but the import profit decreased by 11.4% [12]. Industry Chain Inventory - Inventories of pure benzene and styrene ports decreased, while inventories of some downstream products also changed [13]. PE and PP Prices and Spreads - PE and PP futures prices mostly decreased, and the spreads between different contracts changed. Spot prices also decreased slightly [17]. Non - standard Prices - Most non - standard PE and PP prices decreased or remained stable [17]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - PE and PP device opening rates decreased, and downstream weighted opening rates also decreased slightly [17]. Inventory - PE and PP enterprise inventories increased, with increases of 38.99% and 19.76% respectively [17]. Caustic Soda and PVC Spot and Futures - For caustic soda, the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased by 0.7%. For PVC, the prices of some futures contracts changed, with increases or decreases [21]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB price of caustic soda in East China decreased by 1.3%, and the FOB price of PVC in Tianjin decreased by 1.6% [22][23]. Supply - The opening rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly [24]. Demand - The opening rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC increased [25][26]. Inventory - The PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory increased slightly [26]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - Methanol futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and regional spreads also changed [35]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory and port inventory increased, and the weekly arrival volume increased by 12.50% [35]. Upstream and Downstream Opening Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise opening rate increased, and the downstream MTO device opening rate increased [35]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Prices of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, etc. increased, with increases ranging from 1.0% to 2.5% [40]. PX - related - PX prices and spreads changed, with the CFR China PX price increasing by 0.9% [40]. PTA - related - PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing fees of PTA also changed [40]. MEG - related - MEG prices and spreads changed, and the port inventory decreased slightly [40]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - Prices of POY, FDY, etc. increased, and cash flows and processing fees of polyester products also changed [40]. Industry Chain Opening Rates - Opening rates of various segments in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE: Petrochemical inventory pressure is low, with more maintenance in May. Import volume from May to June is expected to decline significantly, reducing supply pressure. However, beware of a significant decline in demand. It is recommended to hold short positions until the low level. Long - term pattern is weak with inventory pressure [1]. - PP: In the second - quarter maintenance peak season, supply pressure eases slightly but production is still high. Demand has bottom support but is weakening. Long - term pattern is weak with downward risk [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: In the medium - long term, alumina profit is worrying under over - expansion, driving insufficient demand for caustic soda, and new production facilities are to be put into operation, so the supply - demand outlook is weak. In the short term, the supply side is in the concentrated maintenance stage, and the spot price has increased. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy, and pay attention to the purchasing intention of Shandong's main alumina plants and the storage capacity of caustic soda plants [9]. - PVC: The oversupply contradiction is prominent. Domestic demand is weak due to the weak real - estate chain, and export growth may be limited. It is recommended to short on rallies, but beware of price rebounds due to policy stimulus during the concentrated maintenance period [9]. Styrene Industry - Pure benzene prices continue to decline, with supply increasing as some previously shut - down plants restart and demand remaining weak. Styrene market is weakly volatile, with sufficient supply in May as some plants restart. It is recommended to short styrene, with the upper resistance at 7300 [16]. Polyester Industry - PX: Due to the compression of PX profitability, some plants are reducing production or undergoing maintenance. Although terminal demand is expected to be weak, short - term support for PX is strong. PX09 is expected to fluctuate between 6000 - 6400 [22]. - PTA: In May, there are many PTA plant maintenance plans, and short - term supply - demand is tight. TA09 is expected to fluctuate between 4200 - 4500 [22]. - Ethylene glycol: In May, domestic supply is expected to increase, but imports are expected to decrease, and there is still an expectation of inventory reduction. EG09 is expected to fluctuate between 4050 - 4300 [22]. - Short - fiber: Short - term inventory pressure is not large, but demand is weak. It is recommended to follow the raw material trend and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing margin of PF06 below 900 [22]. - Bottle chips: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is also expected to rise in May. The absolute price follows the raw material, and the processing margin is supported. PR is recommended to be treated the same as PTA, and the processing margin of the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [22]. Methanol Industry - The inland methanol price is stable but has a downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production increases, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port starts the inventory - building cycle, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short MA09 on rallies [32]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices continued to strengthen, driven by technical buying and bargain - hunting. Although supply is expected to increase, short - term demand improvement reduces the inventory build. It is recommended to take a short - term long position. WTI is expected to fluctuate between [59, 69], Brent between [60, 70], and SC between [450, 510]. It is also recommended to buy volatility in the options market [36]. Urea Industry - The short - term market price follows the fundamentals. The core logic is the early arrival of the agricultural fertilizer - preparation peak season and the support of industrial orders. If the export policy is relaxed more than expected, the upside space of the futures price will expand. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side trading and buy volatility in the options market [46]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin Industry - **PE and PP Prices and Spreads**: L2505, L2509, PP2505, and PP2509 prices all declined, while the spreads between near - and far - month contracts increased. Spot prices of some products also decreased [1]. - **PE and PP Non - standard Prices**: Some non - standard product prices of PE and PP decreased [1]. - **PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, and downstream weighted operating rates also showed a downward trend [1]. - **PE and PP Inventories**: PE and PP enterprise inventories and social inventories decreased [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices**: Some caustic soda prices increased, while PVC prices decreased [5]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: FOB prices in East China ports decreased, and export profits decreased significantly [5]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: CFR prices in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged, and export profits increased [6]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rates and Industry Profits**: The operating rates of the caustic soda and PVC industries increased slightly, and the profit of some PVC production methods decreased [7]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some caustic soda downstream industries decreased [8]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some PVC downstream products increased slightly, and the pre - sales volume increased [9]. - **Chlor - alkali Inventories: Social and Factory Inventories**: Some caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [9]. Styrene Industry - **Styrene Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and some pure benzene prices decreased [13]. - **Styrene Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and the basis and month - spread changed [14]. - **Styrene Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: Overseas quotes of styrene decreased, and import profits decreased [15]. - **Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits**: The operating rates of some industries in the styrene industry chain changed, and the profits of some products decreased significantly [16]. - **Styrene Industry Chain Inventories**: Some inventories in the styrene industry chain decreased [16]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of some downstream polyester products remained unchanged or decreased slightly, and cash flows also changed [22]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX prices and some spreads changed [22]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads changed, and the processing margin decreased [22]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG prices and spreads changed, and the import profit decreased [22]. - **Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes**: The operating rates of some industries in the polyester industry chain decreased slightly [22]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices decreased, and some spreads and basis changed [32]. - **Methanol Inventories**: Enterprise inventories decreased, and port inventories increased [32]. - **Methanol Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream operating rate increased, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed [32]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices increased, and some spreads changed [36]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some refined oil products increased, and spreads changed [36]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products changed [36]. Urea Industry - **Futures Contract Prices and Spreads**: Urea futures contract prices increased, and some spreads changed [40][41]. - **Main Force Positions**: The number of long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume decreased [42]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of some upstream raw materials decreased [43]. - **Spot Market Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of urea in some regions increased, and some spreads changed [44]. - **Downstream Products**: The price of some downstream products increased slightly [44]. - **Fertilizer Market**: The prices of some fertilizers remained unchanged, and the price of phosphoric acid mono - ammonium increased [45]. - **Supply - Demand Overview**: Domestic urea production increased, and inventories increased [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PVC, the fundamentals remain in a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, but the current price is at a low level with low valuation, and the export end still provides support. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand drive is expected to be weak, and it is still in a negative feedback pattern. Although the spot trading has slightly improved, the short - term market oscillates. Attention should be paid to device maintenance, production reduction, and downstream demand purchasing rhythm [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,854 yuan/ton (-88), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+48), and the South China basis was -84 yuan/ton (+38) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,740 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,770 yuan/ton (-50) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 605 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,980 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 206 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit was -589 yuan/ton (-56), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit was -741 yuan/ton (-157), and the PVC export profit was 18.0 US dollars/ton (+3.6) [1]. - Inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 41.1 tons (-0.9), the social PVC inventory was 40.4 tons (-1.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 77.69% (+0.47%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 74.52% (+2.85%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.80% (+1.13%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 58.4 tons (-1.8) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,498 yuan/ton (+19), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2 yuan/ton (+44) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton (+20), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,330 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The caustic soda profit in Shandong was 1,496 yuan/ton (+63), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 704.0 yuan/ton (-97.5), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 72.04 yuan/ton (+42.50), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,330.43 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 41.58 tons (+0.73), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.51 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 83.90% (+1.80%) [2]. - Downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 75.96% (-0.20%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 60.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 79.71% (+2.54%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: In May, the scale of PVC enterprise maintenance is expected to decrease month - on - month, and new devices are expected to be put into production, so the operation is expected to increase month - on - month, and the supply - side pressure remains high [3]. - Demand: The terminal real estate market is still weak, the operation rate of downstream PVC product enterprises continues to decline and is at a low level in the same period. The downstream market mainly makes rigid purchases at low prices, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. Although PVC exports are doing well and the social inventory is decreasing, the uncertainty of Indian anti - dumping and BIS certification policies and US tariff policies are expected to have a negative impact [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Previously shut - down and maintained devices have gradually resumed operation, and the caustic soda operation rate has increased month - on - month. Since the current comprehensive profit has not fallen into the loss range, most upstream enterprises still maintain high operation, and the supply - side pressure is difficult to ease in the short term [3]. - Demand: The price of the main downstream product, alumina, is running at a low level, some marginal alumina plants are in the loss range, and there is still great pressure on alumina production reduction, which is expected to reduce the demand for caustic soda. The non - aluminum end's replenishment rhythm has slowed down, the operation of terminals such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing has declined significantly, and US tariff policies are expected to continue to impact downstream industries, so the non - aluminum demand is still expected to be weak [3]. Strategy - PVC is rated as neutral. The fundamentals are in a high - supply and weak - demand pattern, but the current price is low, the valuation is low, and the export end still provides support. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4]. - Caustic soda is rated as neutral. Although the spot trading has slightly improved and the short - term market oscillates, the overall supply - demand drive is expected to be weak, and it is still in a negative feedback pattern. Attention should be paid to device maintenance, production reduction, and downstream demand purchasing rhythm [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday, caustic soda futures may be short - term oscillating stronger based on the holiday spot price trend and the new capacity launch of alumina. However, considering the return of 05 warehouse receipts to the spot market and the weakness of the demand side, caustic soda is still in a negative feedback pattern [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On May 7, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2498, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 61 [1] 3.2 Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 800 yuan/ton today, up 2.56% from the previous period. After the May Day holiday, most enterprises in Shandong had good sales, low inventory, and the price showed an upward trend. In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in enterprise inventory and delivery volume data, and there is a possibility of further price increases [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Demand Side**: Alumina has low profit and high raw material caustic soda inventory. Although new capacity launch increases the rigid demand, the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda is weak. Non - aluminum demand is generally weak, and some industries such as viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, and pulp and paper industries are greatly affected by the trade war, with obvious declines in production. Exports can support caustic soda, but the purchasing of foreign merchants is cautious due to the trade war [3] - **Supply Side**: There will still be new maintenance in May. Since the profit is not in deficit, the manufacturer's load is generally at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply. Although in the first quarter, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream was limited due to the high profit of caustic soda, if caustic soda and liquid chlorine decline, marginal device supply will be affected by profit [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2] for integers, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing a weak recovery with significant structural differentiation among sub-industries. The average revenue growth for listed companies in the basic chemical sector was 1.07% and 4.29% for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, while net profit growth was -9.3% and 11.9% [4][21] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the chemical industry fell by 2.8% year-on-year in March 2025, with specific declines in chemical raw materials and products, chemical fibers, and rubber and plastic products [4][9] - The highest net profit growth in Q1 2025 was observed in the following sub-industries: Chlor-alkali (129.52%), Fluorine chemicals (91.39%), Food and feed additives (68.1%), Other chemical raw materials (66.78%), and Pesticides (62.22%) [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The chemical industry is under pressure from overcapacity, with a weak recovery in demand. The performance of various sub-industries is not synchronized, leading to significant structural differentiation [4][82] - The average profit margin in March 2025 dropped to 4.45%, marking a historical low [4][18] 2. Sub-Industry Insights 2.1 Chlor-alkali - The chlor-alkali sector saw a significant increase in profitability in Q1 2025, driven by improved real estate sales and stable automotive production. However, prices have started to decline since April [24][34] 2.2 Refrigerants - The refrigerant market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and steady demand from the automotive and home air conditioning sectors. The average price for refrigerants rose by 58.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [35][41] 2.3 Food and Feed Additives - The demand for food and feed additives remains stable, with a low cost share in downstream products. The market for amino acids and vitamins has seen price increases, with significant growth in net profits for leading companies [44][50] 2.4 Other Chemical Raw Materials - A supply contraction has led to structural price increases for certain chemical raw materials, such as acrylic acid and polyols, with notable profit improvements for companies in this sector [60][64] 2.5 Pesticides - The pesticide industry is facing overcapacity, but there is potential for price increases in certain small varieties due to supply constraints and inventory depletion in overseas markets [67][79] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from domestic demand, such as phosphate and potassium fertilizer leaders, as well as firms in the vitamin and AI materials sectors. The impact of tariffs on exports is also highlighted as a factor to consider [83]

--------高浓度碱大幅度下跌后企稳回升 烧碱期货仓单数量稀少 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年5月6日 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应产量 | | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为83.9%，环比+1.8%。西北、华中、华东、华南、西南新增重启装置，带动负 | | | | 荷不同程度提升，周内华北有装置减产导致负荷下滑。山东产能利用率呈现上升+0.1%至91.1%。本周来看，华北、华南、西南均有 | | | | 装置复产，因此综合来看，预计本周烧碱产能利用率涨至85%左右，周产量82万吨左 ...

Group 1: Travel and Tourism - The average daily passenger volume during the first three days of the May Day holiday in 2025 reached 305 million, a 5.4% increase from 2024's 289 million[6] - Excluding private car usage, the average daily passenger volume was 60.39 million, up 7.6% from 2024[6] - International flight numbers increased by 19.6% year-on-year, significantly outpacing domestic flight growth of 5.4%[6] Group 2: Consumer Spending - The average daily box office revenue during the May Day holiday was 170 million yuan, down from 350 million yuan in 2024, representing 39% of the 2019 level[14] - The average number of moviegoers was 4.35 million, compared to 8.78 million in 2024, which is 43% of the 2019 level[14] - Despite a decline in box office revenue, the drop in attendance was greater than the drop in total revenue, indicating some price recovery[14] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The April production synchronization index (HTPI) was 4.34%, down from 4.91% in March[20] - The April consumption synchronization index (HTCI) was 3.81%, slightly down from 3.85% in March[20] - Infrastructure investment showed signs of recovery, with cumulative issuance of special bonds reaching 1.2721 trillion yuan as of May 4[32]