Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to maintaining stable pricing and market conditions, avoiding participation in price wars [1] Group 1: Company Commitments - The company ensures the protection of dealer interests without compromise [1] - The company guarantees stability within its workforce and management team [1] - The company commits to maintaining relative price stability while adapting to market changes, explicitly stating it will not engage in price wars [1] - The company ensures the stability, operability, and sustainability of its policies to maintain market stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of the Chinese equity market, highlighting a shift in global perception of Chinese assets and the potential for A-shares to catch up with the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the coming months to a year [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Recent months have shown a recovery in the Chinese market, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounding quickly after initial shocks from tariff disputes [3]. - The Hang Seng Index has increased by 27.64% from September 24, 2024, to May 31, 2025, while the CSI 300 Index has risen by 19.53% during the same period, indicating a stronger performance in Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [3]. Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - Four key sectors are highlighted for future investment: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and power batteries [4][5]. - AI is seen as a core direction for global technological development, with significant investment opportunities in computing power and related hardware [4]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to grow, driven by advancements in research and development within Chinese companies [7]. - The consumer sector is viewed as having no clear distinction between "new" and "old" consumption, with opportunities arising from cultural exports as China continues to grow as a super economy [4]. - The power battery sector remains promising due to its vast market potential across various applications, including energy storage and robotics [5]. Group 3: Healthcare Sector Insights - The innovative pharmaceutical market is anticipated to be a long-term trend, with China's pharmaceutical capabilities aligning with global standards [7]. - Investment opportunities are focused on companies in pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and high-value consumables, with a preference for firms with strong clinical and sales capabilities [7]. Group 4: Consumer Sector Dynamics - The future performance of the consumer sector is closely tied to domestic demand, which is influenced by residents' income expectations [9]. - Recent consumer subsidies in sectors like automotive and home appliances have created opportunities, and sustained policy support could further drive growth [10]. Group 5: Technology Sector Developments - The technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to play a crucial role in overcoming current economic challenges, with AI development projected to continue for decades [12]. - Investment opportunities are identified in smart driving and humanoid robots, with the latter expected to see production growth in specific industries [12]. Group 6: Manufacturing and Resource Insights - The manufacturing sector is poised for growth, with opportunities for Chinese brands to compete globally due to improved product performance and stability [16]. - Resource-related companies are also highlighted, as limited supply supports pricing and profitability [16]. Group 7: Financial Sector Outlook - The banking sector has shown resilience, with improved performance attributed to better-than-expected corporate conditions outside the real estate sector [18]. - As the economic outlook improves, expectations for the banking sector are also anticipated to recover [18]. Group 8: Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The white liquor industry is undergoing adjustments primarily due to inventory cycles and operational challenges, with potential for recovery as internal adjustments take place [21].

Group 1 - On July 4, CICC Fund announced personnel changes regarding its equity fund management team, primarily involving fund manager Yan Xin [1] - Yan Xin has been appointed as a co-manager for the CICC Economic Cycle Driven Mixed Fund alongside Wang Jialie, while she has been dismissed from her position managing the CICC Consumption Upgrade Equity Fund due to business adjustments [6][4] - Yan Xin has 10 years of experience in the securities industry and 5 years in investment management, previously working as a researcher at Sunshine Asset Management before joining CICC Fund in August 2020 [3][6] Group 2 - The CICC Consumption Upgrade Equity Fund, managed by Yan Xin, has shown a return of -35.32% during her tenure, ranking 401 out of 448 in its category, with continuous losses over four years [6][10] - The CICC Economic Cycle Driven Mixed Fund, which Yan Xin is now managing, has performed better with an 11.98% increase since its inception in May 2022, and a 24.46% increase over the past year [10] - The shift in Yan Xin's management from a poorly performing fund to a stronger one reflects CICC Fund's strategy of reallocating resources to enhance overall management efficiency [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of the recent alcohol ban on the liquor industry, highlighting a sharp decline in sales and profits across various segments and regions [2][3]. Industry Overview - The overall liquor industry has experienced a downturn, with a reported 18.7% decline in revenue in Shandong province during the first month of the ban. High-end product lines, such as those from leading brands like Jingzhi and Bandaojiu, saw sales drop by 35%-40%. The inventory turnover period has increased from 45 days to 120 days [3]. - In June, the first full month affected by the policy, most liquor merchants reported a sales and profit decline of over 30%-50% compared to May. Data from the China Alcoholic Drinks Association indicates that 59.7% of liquor companies experienced a decrease in profit margins in the first half of the year [3]. Consumption Patterns - There has been a noticeable reduction in consumption scenarios, particularly in dining settings and events like "Thanking Teachers" and "Graduation Banquets," with significant impacts observed in regions like Guangdong where such events have nearly ceased. Corporate group purchases have also declined, with fewer gatherings in state-owned enterprises [3]. Price and Channel Disparities - The mid-to-high-end price segments (300-800 RMB, especially above 500 RMB) have been hit hardest, with group purchase sales in Jiangsu and Shandong dropping by 60%-70%. Notable brands have seen a decrease in wholesale prices, while mid-to-low-end products in regions like Anhui experienced a 50% decline in sales [4]. - Channel performance varies, with warehouse-style retail remaining stable or slightly increasing, while high-end retail has seen a 15%-20% decline. General retail and group purchases have dropped by 30%, and high-end group purchases and business scenarios have decreased by 50% [4]. Channel Survival Challenges - Many chain liquor stores and tobacco shops are facing significant profit declines, with some businesses in Shandong and Wuhan unable to cover rent and facing potential losses and layoffs. Poor inventory turnover and declining wholesale prices have led to cautious restocking practices [4]. Management Strategies - Liquor manufacturers are advised to "actively wash away" accumulated pressures in the second quarter to prepare for future challenges. The focus should be on achieving better performance than peers rather than absolute results [5]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical comparisons suggest that while the current situation is challenging, it may not be as severe as past crises, such as the plasticizer scandal and the "Eight Regulations" in 2012. The current ban is seen as a less drastic change, with corrective measures already being implemented [8]. - The article posits that the liquor sector's long-term prospects remain positive, with a belief that economic recovery will eventually lead to a resurgence in demand for liquor consumption [9]. Performance Indicators - The worst-case scenario for the liquor industry this year could involve negative growth for all companies except for Moutai. The stability of Moutai's wholesale prices and the sales performance of Wuliangye are viewed as key indicators for market confidence [9].

Market Performance - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 1.54%, while the Shenwan Food and Beverage Index rose by 0.31% during the period from June 30 to July 4, 2025 [1] Institutional Insights - New consumption sectors (low-alcohol beverages, drinks, snacks, dairy products) have significantly outperformed traditional consumption sectors (liquor, beer) this year, driven by high growth in channel revenue and expectations for new product launches [2] - The second quarter is expected to show limited profit pressure for food and beverage companies due to low base effects and declining raw material costs, with a focus on revenue marginal changes and product structure [2] Macro Events - The National Health Commission approved the application of nine substances, including aminopeptidase, as new food additives, and five substances, including D-allo-inositol, as new food raw materials [4] Industry News - The Chinese liquor industry faced challenges in sales, with a 7.2% year-on-year decline in production in the first quarter of 2025, attributed to multiple structural issues beyond the "ban on alcohol" [7] - Liquor companies are increasingly targeting younger consumers by introducing low-alcohol products, as traditional high-alcohol beverages face declining interest from younger demographics [8] - High-end liquor prices have shown volatility post-promotions, with major brands like Moutai experiencing price drops, leading to a focus on inventory management and market confidence [9] Company Developments - Langjiu's revenue in the Henan market is projected to exceed 5 billion yuan in 2025, following a significant growth trajectory since 2017 [10] - The Fenjiu Group opened its first "Xinghua Village Restaurant" in Beijing, enhancing brand experience through a combination of tasting, dining, and cultural displays [11] - The CEO of OB Beer Company and nine others were indicted for tax evasion amounting to 16.5 billion won (approximately 86.79 million yuan) [12]

证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 策略深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 04 日 银行：趋势的力量，坚定的胆量 ——从白酒、新能源汽车和煤炭牛市看银行未来的时间及空间 核心观点 本轮中信银行指数从 2022 年 11 月开始上涨，至今已持续 2 年零 8 个月。当上证指数 在 2024 年 11 月至 2025 年 6 月连续 8 个月窄幅震荡时，中信银行指数已悄然走出技术 性牛市，近期指数更是周线 8 连阳，股价不断创历史新高。伴随着指数走高，市场对 银行指数是否见顶的讨论逐渐增加。以史为鉴，本篇报告复盘了白酒、新能源汽车和 煤炭三大行业牛市的驱动因素及 DDM 模型股价归因。通过对比，我们认为当下银行 板块或处于"牛市"中段，中信银行指数 PB 有望从 2022 年 10 月的 0.5X 修复至 0.8-0.9X 左右。 ❑ 白酒：2016-2021 年，消费红利释放，外资加速配置 1）2016 年 1 月-2018 年 6 月：房地产价格上涨带来财富效应，居民消费升级背景 下，白酒行业迎来量价齐升。在此期间，盈利为拉动股价上涨的主要因素。 2）2018 年 11 月-2021 年 ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with banking, liquor, semiconductor, and logistics sectors rising, while non-ferrous metals and chemical pharmaceuticals sectors weakened [1] - BYD's stock price fell over 1% [1] Sector Performance Banking Sector - Major banks like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance reported market capitalizations of 382.98 billion, 357.30 billion, and 1,030.15 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 9.81 million, 36.96 million, and 7.85 million [3] Liquor Industry - Key players such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1,786.59 billion, 214.35 billion, and 467.31 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 40.87 million, 10.51 million, and 20.49 million [3] Semiconductor Sector - Companies like Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information had market capitalizations of 241.84 billion, 229.03 billion, and 315.09 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 24.36 million, 31.12 million, and 15.15 million [3] Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of 1,818.73 billion, 186.84 billion, and 278.88 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 34.54 million, 4.39 million, and 5.94 million [3] Oil Industry - China Petroleum, Sinopec, and COSCO Shipping had market capitalizations of 239.78 billion, 688.67 billion, and 1,573.98 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 8.63 million, 6.43 million, and 7.64 million [3] Coal Industry - Major companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 187.79 billion and 815.60 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 12.39 million and 6.45 million [3] Power Industry - Key players such as Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power had market capitalizations of 360.33 billion and 737.96 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 20.49 million and 8.29 million [4] Food and Beverage Sector - Companies like Citic Securities, Guotai Junan, and Haitian Flavoring had market capitalizations of 409.94 billion, 340.96 billion, and 226.93 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 28.30 million, 3.94 million, and 16.84 million [4] Consumer Electronics - Industrial Fulian, Luxshare Precision, and Gree Electric Appliances had market capitalizations of 472.85 billion, 255.90 billion, and 242.55 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 30.57 million, 77.50 million, and 25.48 million [4] Chemical Products - Companies like Wanhua Chemical and SF Holding had market capitalizations of 239.20 billion and 271.34 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 12.28 million and 8.32 million [4] Construction and Engineering - China State Construction and Zijin Mining had market capitalizations of 532.88 billion and 166.95 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 27.26 million and 8.53 million [4]

Core Insights - The recognition of Zhang Zhiliang and Guo Taohong as "Chief Wine Body Designers" highlights the scientific and quality control capabilities of Jinhui Wine Co., Ltd, as well as its talent cultivation system [1][3][4] - The title of "Chief Wine Body Designer" is a prestigious position in the liquor industry, emphasizing the importance of innovation and quality stability in product development [3][4] Group 1: Recognition and Achievements - Zhang Zhiliang has over 40 years of experience in the liquor industry, recognized for creating the northern sweet and rich style of liquor and has received multiple honors including "China's Chief Taster" and "Gansu Province May Day Labor Medal" [3][4] - Guo Taohong, as the head of the R&D center, holds multiple prestigious titles and has significant experience in technical research and quality control [4] Group 2: Industry Context - The "Chief Wine Body Designer" role is crucial in leading design teams, formulating core design plans, and ensuring product quality and style stability, especially in the context of consumer upgrades and industry transformation [3] - The China Food Industry Association is known for its authoritative and rigorous evaluation process in the liquor industry, awarding significant honors such as the "China Liquor Body Design Award" since 2012 [3]

Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a deep adjustment and transformation in the consumer market, with a decline in production among large-scale enterprises in 2024, yet leading companies are still seeing growth in revenue and profit, indicating an increase in industry concentration [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is leveraging its dual-brand matrix of "Guojiao" (over 20 billion) and "Luzhou Laojiao" (over 10 billion) to navigate market fluctuations [1] - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns by increasing dividend rates over the next 5-10 years, while focusing on strategies such as "lower alcohol content, youth-oriented, scenario-based, and digitalization" [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenue of 31.196 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit of 13.473 billion, up 1.71% year-on-year [1] - The "Guojiao" brand exceeded 20 billion, while "Luzhou Laojiao" surpassed 10 billion, supported by a strategy of "dual brands, three product lines, and major single products" [1] Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the "lower alcohol content" innovation as a strategic priority, with plans to launch a 28-degree product and consider even lower alcohol content options [1] - The 38-degree Guojiao 1573 has gained market acceptance, with sales accounting for approximately 50% and nearing 10 billion in scale [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is expanding into lower-tier markets and has doubled its online network system in the first four months, with expectations to further expand market reach over the next five years [1] Competitive Advantage - The company emphasizes a strategy of "opening bottles as king," aiming to deepen its presence in grassroots markets and optimize its channel system to enhance its ability to respond to market changes [1] - Luzhou Laojiao is committed to a "culture + technology" strategy, focusing on innovation and quality to write a new chapter in the development of the liquor industry [1]

Market Performance - A-shares indices showed a slight increase on July 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3475.24 points, up 0.41% with a trading volume of 335.9 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.05% to 10540.00 points, with a trading volume of 526.8 billion yuan, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.18% to 2168.03 points, with a trading volume of 256.6 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in sectors such as banking, gaming, electricity, cross-border payments, brain-computer interfaces, and internet finance, with several stocks reaching their daily limit [2] - Conversely, sectors like energy metals, wind power equipment, batteries, and marine economy experienced declines, with some stocks, such as Baiyang Co., hitting their daily limit down [2] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted the potential growth in the submarine cable market, projecting a 60% increase in the length of new submarine cables globally from 2026 to 2030 compared to the previous five years, with a CAGR of 13% expected for the market size from 2025 to 2030 [3] - The report also noted that leading companies in the domestic submarine cable sector are expected to enhance their competitiveness [3] - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need for a unified national market and the orderly exit of backward production capacity in the steel industry, which could lead to further profit recovery in the sector [3] Trade Relations - The Ministry of Commerce of China confirmed that both China and the U.S. are working to implement the outcomes of recent economic talks, with the U.S. taking steps to lift certain trade restrictions on China, including the resumption of exports of EDA software and jet engines [4][5] - The Chinese government is expected to approve export licenses for eligible controlled items, indicating a potential thaw in trade tensions [4] Emerging Industries - The Sichuan provincial government is focusing on advancing key technologies in nuclear fusion and high-efficiency laser fusion energy, aiming to establish innovative enterprises in fusion energy and enhance production capabilities of related components [6]