Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.58%, volume increased and positions decreased. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded to a high level while demand is weak, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is that the futures price has fallen close to the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.52%, both volume and positions expanded. At present, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, the demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that speculative demand is acceptable, and the short - term price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened with a daily increase of 1.21%, both volume and positions expanded. Currently, the shipments of miners have seasonally declined, but inventories are high, the supply pressure is not relieved, and demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and ore prices are still likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are pre - holiday steel mill restocking and the warming of commodity sentiment. It is expected that ore prices will show an oscillatory and stable trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in Xiongan New Area increased by 14% year - on - year. The coordinated development of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei has deepened. In 2025, Hebei's fixed - asset investment increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the investment of construction projects worth over 100 million yuan increased by 9.6% year - on - year, driving the province's investment growth by 6.5 percentage points [7]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in January are expected to be 1.8 million units, and new energy vehicles are expected to reach 800,000 units. Affected by the halving of purchase tax subsidies, the car market started weakly at the beginning of January, but gradually recovered. The monthly retail market is expected to be 1.8 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year slight increase of 0.3% [7]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Fortescue's iron ore production was 49.8 million tons, a 2% decrease both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The shipment volume was 50.5 million tons, a 1% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 2% increase year - on - year [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and their price changes are provided. Also included are the prices and price changes of PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight, SGX swaps, and iron ore price index [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, volume differences, positions, and position differences of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar contract closed at 3,142 with a 0.58% increase, the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,305 with a 0.52% increase, and the iron ore contract closed at 795.0 with a 1.21% increase [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore [13][14][17]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills, and the iron concentrate powder inventory of domestic mines [21][22][24]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [26][28][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply has increased to a high level while demand is weak, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and prices are under pressure during the off - season. The futures price near the valley - electricity cost provides downward resistance. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [33]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Supply pressure remains, demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is acceptable speculative demand. The short - term price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [33]. - **Iron Ore**: Miners' shipments have seasonally declined, inventories are high, supply pressure is not relieved, and demand is weak. The fundamentals have not improved, and prices are still likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are pre - holiday steel mill restocking and the warming of commodity sentiment. It is expected that prices will show an oscillatory and stable trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [34].

通过所选区间该基金净值增长率分位图，可以观察该基金与同类基金业绩比较情况。图为坐标原点到区间内某时点的净值增长率在同类基金中的分位数。 AI基金兴业国企改革混合A（001623）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润241.87万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0433元。报告期内，基金净值增长 率为1.67%，截至四季度末，基金规模为1.44亿元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金。截至1月21日，单位净值为2.65元。基金经理是刘方旭，目前管理的4只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至1月21日，兴业睿 进混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达30.97%；兴业龙腾双益平衡混合最低，为9.16%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，2026年一季度，A股市场有望延续震荡上行趋势。下一阶段，本基金将精选估值合理的价值类和顺周期类资产作为基础配置， 力争通过精选个股来实现稳定收益。 截至1月21日，兴业国企改革混合A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为1.42%，位于同类可比基金1074/1286；近半年复权单位净值增长率为8.07%，位于同类可 比基金986/1286；近一年复权单位净值增长率为15.52%，位于同类可比基金997/1 ...

Group 1: Commodity Sector Outlook - The commodity sector remains a key focus for 2026, but caution is advised regarding specific small metals [2][9] - The long-term potential for significant price declines in resource products is low due to inelastic supply and steady demand growth [2][26] - Even with material substitution and downstream control measures, the overall upward price trend is expected to continue [2][26] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The core strategy for new consumption involves identifying the strongest marginal changes among numerous SKUs each year and closely tracking their growth rates [2][10] - The global consumption beta is currently poor, indicating that structural opportunities still exist despite a lower ceiling compared to traditional sectors like liquor [10][13] - The market is becoming increasingly fragmented, necessitating a focus on data and marginal changes rather than personal preferences [10][12] Group 3: AI Industry Insights - The AI industry is rapidly evolving, with many subfields beginning to form commercial closed loops, provided that underlying technologies continue to improve [2][15] - AI investments have become a core industry influencing macroeconomic trends in both the US and China, with significant scale [15][17] - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal year for AI, with numerous large model companies expected to go public, marking a critical phase for the industry [2][15] Group 4: Resource Price Dynamics - Resource prices have been on a gradual rise since 2023, driven by increasing extraction costs and decreasing reserves [5][63] - The trend of resource price increases is supported by geopolitical factors and strategic stockpiling of rare metals by various countries [6][66] - Chinese mining companies have shown strong manufacturing advantages, leading to higher profit margins compared to their Western counterparts [7][67] Group 5: Investment Strategy and Market Behavior - A prudent investment strategy involves controlling positions when direction is unclear and increasing investments as trends become more defined [4][21] - The market's reaction to AI-related investments has been volatile, with significant fluctuations in stock prices reflecting broader economic uncertainties [16][79] - The importance of understanding the long-term potential of technologies while managing short-term volatility is emphasized [19][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that beyond the hype surrounding AI, the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, is poised to be the ultimate winner in the market [4]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector achieved an impressive cumulative increase of nearly 100%, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan, marking an increase of 6.468 billion to 7.268 billion yuan year-on-year, which translates to a growth of 47.8% to 53.71% [5]. Luoyang Molybdenum's Financial Highlights - Luoyang Molybdenum's A-shares saw a 212% increase, while H-shares surged by 286.9% in 2025, with its market capitalization surpassing 500 billion yuan at one point [7]. - The company’s actual controller, Yu Yong, saw his net worth rise to 129.5 billion yuan due to the stock price surge [9]. Historical Context and Strategic Moves - Luoyang Molybdenum's transformation began in the early 2000s when it faced severe financial difficulties, leading to a restructuring that introduced Shanghai Hongshang Industrial Holding Group as a significant stakeholder [10][11]. - The company successfully listed in Hong Kong in 2007 and later on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2012, allowing it to access both domestic and international capital markets [14]. Strategic Acquisitions - The company made significant acquisitions, including a $1.5 billion purchase of high-quality niobium and phosphate assets in Brazil in 2016, and a $2.65 billion acquisition of a 56% stake in the Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine [15][16]. - In 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum announced the acquisition of Lumina Gold, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador, and plans to acquire three gold mines in Brazil for $1.015 billion [20][21]. Future Outlook - The copper price is expected to rise significantly, with predictions of a global refined copper deficit of about 330,000 tons by 2026, and prices potentially reaching $12,500 per ton [18]. - The company's diversification into gold mining is seen as a strategic move to balance its industrial-focused portfolio with the financial and hedging attributes of gold [21].

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 16766.53 310.73 9388.82 281.9 2659.7 40.19 228.1 78.68 85.51 40.69 10.50 上期 16555.1 319.89 9262.22 281.84 2920.4 39.66 228.01 78.84 85.48 39.83 7.00 周变动 211.43 -9.16 126.60 0.06 -260.70 0.53 0.09 -0.16 0.03 0.86 3.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 12609.17 2204.9 406.14 1546.32 本期 11124.84 5628.71 7588.05 上期 12480.26 2154.13 391 1529.71 上期 10947.85 5707.14 7389.21 周变动 128.91 50.77 15.14 16.61 周变动 176.99 -78.43 198.84 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-23 宏观与地缘方面，美国总统特朗普表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美国"一切想要的军事进入权"。特朗 普还威胁称，如果欧洲国家因其与格陵兰岛相关的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，美方将进行"强烈报复"。经济数据 方面，美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美联储青睐 的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。劳动力市场方面，美国上周 初请失业金人数20万人，低于预期的21万人。 矿端方面，外电1月21日消息，智利当选总统何塞・安东尼奥・卡斯特上演反转操作，令矿业界哗然。就在数小时 前，他还暗示将任命一位专职矿业部长，最终却宣布将矿业部门并入经济部。卡斯特在仪式上任命丹尼尔・曼 （Daniel Man）担任经济与矿业部长（双重职务）。这一决策遭多方质疑，外界对这一决定的批评主要集中在两点： 一是新任部长丹尼尔・曼的专业背景为农艺学，缺乏直接的矿业从业经验；二是将长期被视为国家经济战略部门 的矿业部降级合并，此举具有强烈的象征负面意义。矿产咨询集团董事何塞・卡贝略表示，这一 ...

AI基金华宝新机遇混合A（162414）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润21.36万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0091元。报告期内，基金净值增长率为 0.5%，截至四季度末，基金规模为4562.05万元。 该基金属于灵活配置型基金。截至1月22日，单位净值为1.892元。基金经理是林昊和唐雪倩，目前共同管理4只基金。其中，截至1月22日，华宝新价值混合 近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达22.06%；华宝安享混合A最低，为4.23%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，权益方面，四季度权益资产震荡，但上证指数整体收红，仍然延续了上行的态势。从风格上而言，三季度表现强势的大盘成长 风格出现小幅调整，大盘价值和小微盘股票相对占优。行业方面，周期品及能源类板块占优，有色、石油、钢铁、化工行业表现居前，成长板块分化，通信 （光模块）及军工（卫星链）表现居前，其它成长行业则高位有所调整。基金在报告期内维持了权益资产的整体仓位，未来仍将恪守投资边际，在 A 股市 场中寻找具有较高盈利质量和行业代表性的股票进行组合配置，同时关注估值上行后不同板块的估值比较，希望能够在长期中为持有人寻找和实现可以满足 资产配置收益需求的资 ...

2025年，五矿资源的贵金属产量同样表现优异，高价值副产品对矿山收入和C1成本做出了积极贡献。 全年黄金总产量达11.81万盎司(同比增长22%)，白银总产量达1056.48万盎司(同比增长17%)。以上可观 产量叠加实现价格维持高位，公司获得了显著的副产品收益，有效降低了各矿山的C1成本。该成果体 现了公司以最大化副产品价值为核心的战略重点，有助于提升整体盈利能力。 智通财经APP获悉，五矿资源(01208)高开逾3%，截至发稿，涨3.61%，报9.75港元，成交1265.81万港 元。 2025年12月，董事会批准了Khoemacau扩建项目的可行性研究，标志着重要的战略里程碑。该项目有望 将矿山的年产能提升至13万吨铜精矿含铜，并使伴生银的年产量超过400万盎司，构成了五矿资源增长 计划的重要组成部分。展望未来，Khoemacau矿山已通过持续勘探活动，识别出进一步扩产的潜力，年 产能有望提升至20万吨铜精矿含铜。公司计划于2026年启动下一阶段扩建的预可行性研究。 消息面上，1月22日，五矿资源发布公告，2025年五矿资源整体运营表现稳健，多座矿山产量创下或接 近历史新高。公司全年铜总产量同比增长27 ...

人民财讯1月23日电，企查查APP显示，近日，天津市普瑞矿业有限公司成立，注册资本3亿元，经营范 围包含：金属矿石销售；贸易经纪；国内贸易代理；货物进出口等。企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由永 兴材料（002756）全资持股。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US stock market indices experienced a collective rise, driven by strong macroeconomic data and reduced geopolitical concerns, leading to increased risk appetite among investors [1]. Group 1: US Stock Market Performance - On January 23, the Dow Jones increased by 0.63% to 49,384.01, the Nasdaq rose by 0.91% to 23,436.02, and the S&P 500 gained 0.55% to 6,913.35 [2]. - Major technology stocks saw significant gains, with the "Big Seven" tech index rising by 1.47%. Notable individual stock performances included Microsoft and Amazon both rising over 1%, Meta increasing by 5.7%, Oracle by over 2%, and Tesla by over 4% [2]. Group 2: Intel's Financial Performance - Intel's stock fell nearly 10% after reporting Q4 revenue of $13.67 billion, a 4.1% year-over-year decline, which was slightly above market expectations of $13.43 billion. The adjusted EPS for Q4 was $0.15, compared to $0.13 in the previous year, exceeding the forecast of $0.09 [3]. - For Q1, Intel projected an adjusted EPS of $0.00, below the market expectation of $0.08, and revenue guidance of $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, compared to the market estimate of $12.56 billion [3]. Group 3: Commodities Market - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.59%, with many popular Chinese concept stocks increasing, including Alibaba and XPeng both up over 5% [4]. - Gold prices surged by 2.22% to a record high of $4,939.41 per ounce, while silver rose by 3.55% to $96.36 per ounce, also reaching a historical peak [4]. - The geopolitical risk premium has decreased, contributing to a drop in oil prices, with WTI crude falling below $60 [4]. Group 4: US Economic Data - On January 22, several macroeconomic data points were released, showing a Q3 2025 annualized GDP growth rate of 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% [5]. - The core PCE index for Q3 2025 was reported at an annualized increase of 2.9%, matching expectations, while the overall PCE index rose by 2.8%, below the anticipated 3.5% [5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is at 5%, with a 95% chance of maintaining current rates [5].