Core Viewpoint - As of April 30, 2025, the caustic soda futures market shows a slight upward trend, with the main contract closing at 2479 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.64% [1] Market Performance - The caustic soda futures opened at 2425 CNY/ton, peaked at 2481 CNY/ton, and dipped to a low of 2403 CNY/ton during the week [1] - The trading volume decreased by 31,192 contracts compared to the previous week [1] Production and Capacity Utilization - The average capacity utilization rate for caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 20,000 tons or more was 83.9%, up by 1.8% from the previous week [1] - New production facilities were restarted in regions including Northwest, Central China, East China, South China, and Southwest, contributing to varying degrees of load increase [1] - A reduction in production was noted in North China, leading to a decline in load [1] Pricing Trends - On April 30, liquid chlorine prices in some areas of Shandong dropped by 100-150 CNY, while prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - The procurement price for caustic soda in major alumina plants in Shanxi for May remained stable compared to April, with the delivered price for 50% ion membrane liquid caustic soda around 2840-2940 CNY/ton [1] Future Market Outlook - Current caustic soda production is at a high level year-on-year, and the overall profit margins in the chlor-alkali sector remain acceptable, with manufacturers showing low willingness to conduct maintenance [1] - The spot market for caustic soda remains under pressure, with a recommendation for traders to take profits on short positions before the holiday and adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - One德期货 suggests that the comprehensive profit margins are slightly below neutral, with significant fluctuations in liquid chlorine prices and a downward trend in liquid caustic soda prices [1] - Demand from textile printing and dyeing sectors is weak, while recovery in other demand areas remains slow [1] - Tariffs have minimal direct impact on caustic soda, but there are expectations of weakened terminal demand [1]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 公司代码：601678 公司简称：滨化股份 第一节 重要提示 1、本年度报告摘要来自年度报告全文，为全面了解本公司的经营成果、财务状况及未来发展规划，投 资者应当到www.sse.com.cn网站仔细阅读年度报告全文。 2、本公司董事会、监事会及董事、监事、高级管理人员保证年度报告内容的真实性、准确性、完整 性，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 3、公司全体董事出席董事会会议。 4、天职国际会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）为本公司出具了标准无保留意见的审计报告。 5、董事会决议通过的本报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 2024年度利润分配预案为：以实施权益分派股权登记日登记的总股本，扣除公司回购专用账户所持股份 为基数分配利润，向全体股东每10股派发现金红利0.30元（含税）。实际派发现金红利总额将根据股权 登记日可参与利润分配的股份数量确定。如在董事会审议通过本次利润分配方案之日起至实施权益分派 股权登记日期间，因可转债转股/回购股份/股权激励授予股份回购注销/重大资产重组股份回购注销等致 使公司总股本发生变动的，公司拟维 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LL: In May, maintenance increases and imports decrease. If the exemption of ethane imports weakens the expectation of supply reduction, attention should be paid to the demand situation after May. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is still large, and there is a possibility of decline in the long - term pattern [4]. - PP: In the second quarter, the peak maintenance season eases the supply pressure slightly, but the output is still high. The demand has bottom support but is gradually weakening. The long - term pattern is weak, and there is a downward risk [4]. Styrene Industry - The market price of pure benzene continues to decline. The raw material trend is weak, and the downstream styrene futures are also weak. The supply of pure benzene has returned, and there is no sign of improvement. The styrene market is weakly volatile, and there is supply pressure in May. In the medium term, due to the impact of tariffs, there is price pressure on styrene. The strategy is to participate in high - altitude operations, with the upper resistance line at 7300 [11]. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term trading may be stronger, and the strategy is to focus on expanding the low - level spread of PX - SC. - PTA: The supply and demand drive becomes stronger, and the price support is relatively strong. The strategy is to wait and see before the festival, and treat TA9 - 1 as a short - term positive spread and a medium - term reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol: It is expected to fluctuate in May. The strategy is that EGO9 is expected to fluctuate between 4050 - 4300. - Short - fiber: The rebound space is limited, and it will be mainly adjusted by shock before the festival. The strategy is similar to PTA for one - side trading, and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee of PFO6 below 900. - Bottle chips: The output is expected to be high, and the relative price follows the raw material fluctuations. The strategy is similar to PTA for one - side trading, and the main contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 550 yuan/ton [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The short - term supply and demand improve marginally, but the long - term expectation is weak. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival, and mainly go short in the medium - term for the 09 contract. - PVC: The start - up rate increases slightly, and the social inventory continues to decline seasonally. The demand is average, and there are problems in exports. The short - term operation should be cautious, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to participate in high - altitude operations [24]. Urea Industry - The main problem is the poor connection between supply and demand under the background of high supply. The supply pressure is increasing. The demand shows structural differentiation. The main contract 2509 may have a small rebound after the festival. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival, and take a short - selling strategy on rallies after the festival if there is a small rebound and no obvious improvement in the fundamentals. The option strategy is to buy and expand the spread in the short - term [30][31]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price was weakly running, pressured by macro - pressure and supply - side easing expectations. If the consumption end fails to replenish stocks in May, the downward channel of the market may further open. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival. The volatility ranges are given as [59, 69] for WTI, [62, 72] for Brent, and [460, 520] for SC. The option strategy is to focus on increasing volatility [49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry PE and PP Prices and Spreads - L2505, L2509, PP2505, PP2509 closing prices decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, with the largest decline of - 0.59% for L2509. The spreads between different contracts and the basis also changed, such as the spread of L2505 - 2509 increased by 5.82% [1]. PE and PP Non - standard Prices - The price of East China LDPE increased by 1.09% to 9250 yuan/ton, while the prices of other non - standard products such as East China HD film and PP injection showed different degrees of change [2]. PE and PP Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventories - PE device operating rate decreased slightly by 0.07% to 83.8%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased slightly by 0.02% to 40.2%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 3.41% to 49.7 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.52% to 60.1 million tons. PP device operating rate decreased by 3.3% to 75.5%, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 0.4% to 50.1%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 2.37% to 60.4 million tons [2][3]. Styrene Industry Styrene Upstream - Brent crude oil (June) and CFR Japan naphtha prices decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, with decreases of - 2.4% and - 1.0% respectively. The prices of other upstream products such as CFR Northeast Asia ethylene and CFR Korea benzene also changed [8]. Styrene Spot and Futures - The East China spot price of styrene decreased by - 0.2% to 7250 yuan/ton on April 29 compared with April 28. The prices of EB2505 and EB2506 also decreased slightly [9]. Styrene Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - The overseas quotes of styrene remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, and the import profit was - 243 yuan/ton [10]. Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - The domestic comprehensive operating rate of pure benzene increased by 1.1% to 71.1%, and the styrene operating rate increased by 1.7% to 67.9%. However, the operating rates of PS, EPS, and ABS decreased. The profits of styrene integration and non - integration decreased significantly, while the profit of PS increased by 133.3% [11]. Polyester Industry Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY150/48, FDY150/96, and polyester bottle chips showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28. The cash flows of some products also changed, such as the cash flow of POY150/48 decreased by - 35.6% [16]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of PX - related products such as CFR China PX and PX spot price (RMB) decreased slightly on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads also changed [16]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The PTA East China spot price decreased by - 1.0% to 4540 yuan/ton on April 29 compared with April 28. The prices of TA futures also changed, and the basis and spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [16]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG port inventory increased by 3.2% to 800,000 tons, and the expected arrival decreased by 37.8% to 122,000 tons on April 21 compared with April 28. The prices of MEG futures and the basis also changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rate Changes - The operating rates of different links in the polyester industry chain such as Asian PX, PTA, and MEG showed different degrees of change on April 25 compared with April 18 [16]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and East China ethylene - based PVC remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, while the prices of other products such as Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda and PVC futures contracts changed [20]. Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 7.0% to 400 US dollars/ton on April 24 compared with April 17, and the export profit decreased significantly by - 125.8% [20]. PVC Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - The overseas quotes of PVC remained unchanged on April 24 compared with April 17, and the export profit increased by 90.5% [21]. Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rates and Industry Profits - The operating rates of caustic soda and PVC increased slightly on April 25 compared with April 18. The profit of external - purchase calcium - carbide - based PVC remained unchanged, while the profit of Northwest integration decreased by 6.8% [22]. Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rates - The operating rates of caustic soda downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber decreased on April 25 compared with April 18 [23]. Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rates - The operating rates of PVC downstream products such as Longzhong sample pipes increased slightly on April 25 compared with April 18, and the pre - sales volume also increased [24]. Chlor - alkali Inventories: Social and Factory Inventories - The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories decreased by 1.1% to 183,000 tons on April 24 compared with April 17, and the PVC total social inventory decreased by 4.7% to 421,000 tons [24]. Urea Industry Urea Futures Contracts - The prices of urea futures contracts such as 01, 05, and 09 decreased on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [26]. Urea Upstream Raw Materials - The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces and steam coal remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, while the price of synthetic ammonia decreased by 3.21% [26]. Urea Spot Market Prices - The prices of urea in different regions such as Shandong and Henan showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28, and the spreads between different regions also changed [26]. Urea Downstream Products - The prices of urea downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers remained unchanged on April 29 compared with April 28, and the ratio of compound fertilizer to urea decreased by 1.10% [28]. Fertilizer Market - The prices of fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate and phosphoric acid mono - ammonium showed different degrees of change on April 29 compared with April 28 [29]. Urea Supply and Demand Overview - The daily and weekly production of urea remained unchanged, and the factory inventory remained stable. The port inventory increased slightly. The demand showed structural differentiation, with industrial demand maintaining rigid procurement and agricultural fertilization not yet started [30]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices decreased on April 30 compared with April 29. The spreads between different contracts and regions also changed, such as the spread of Brent M1 - M3 increased significantly by - 2050.00% [49]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and ICE Gasoil changed on April 30 compared with April 29, and the spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [49]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack spreads of refined oil products in different regions such as the US and Europe showed different degrees of change on April 30 compared with April 29 [49].

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-04-29 供需驱动不足，烧碱延续弱势整理 氯碱观点 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4989元/吨（+28）；华东基差-159元/吨（-8）;华南基差-139元/吨（-28）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4830元/吨（+20）；华南电石法报价4850元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；电石利润206元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-533元/吨（+27）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-584元/吨（-18）；PVC出口利润13.7美元/吨（+0.0）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存42.0万吨（+0.9）；PVC社会库存42.1万吨（-2.1）；PVC电石法开工率77.22%（-0.78%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.67%（+4.67%）；PVC开工率75.67%（+0.67%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量60.2万吨（+3.4）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2441元/吨（+2）；山东32%液碱基差-4元/吨（-96）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（+0）；山东 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The overall comprehensive profit of caustic soda was relatively high in the first quarter of this year, and enterprises had a weak willingness to reduce production through maintenance, mostly maintaining high operation rates [4][10] - The cost of caustic soda mainly consists of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda for enterprises with self - supplied power plants may further decrease, and the expectation of loss - induced production reduction is difficult to occur [4][10] - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than the same period last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. The demand for alumina also declined due to cost - related maintenance and production reduction of some alumina enterprises, and the short - term stocking demand for caustic soda in alumina plants was weak [4][10] Group 2: Upstream Device Maintenance and Production Reduction - Upstream production enterprises generally conduct a large - scale routine maintenance every 2 - 3 years and a small - scale production line rotation inspection every year. In the first quarter of this year, due to high comprehensive profits, most enterprises maintained high operation rates [4][10] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost of caustic soda is mainly composed of raw salt and electricity prices. After the Spring Festival, the price of raw salt decreased slightly, with the price of raw salt in surveyed chlor - alkali enterprises ranging from 280 - 300 yuan/ton (delivered). The cost of self - supplied power plants is lower, and with the decline of coal prices, the production cost of caustic soda may further decrease [4][10] Group 4: Downstream Demand - The downstream terminal demand was significantly weaker than last year. The weak demand led to a continuous decline in caustic soda prices. Downstream enterprises and traders were cautious in purchasing, mainly for rigid demand. Non - aluminum terminal inventories were generally low, showing a "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality [4][10] - Recently, the price of alumina was low, and some alumina enterprises reduced production due to cost issues, dragging down the rigid demand for caustic soda. Alumina plants had high inventories of caustic soda raw materials, and the short - term stocking demand was weak [4][10] Group 5: Specific Situation of Surveyed Enterprises Caustic Soda Enterprise A - It has a designed capacity of 150,000 tons and an actual capacity of 200,000 tons, with chloroacetic acid as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and some liquid chlorine sold externally [11] - It purchases industrial electricity externally, with a production electricity price of over 0.6 yuan, a delivered price of raw sea salt of 300 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive production cost of about 2,400 yuan/ton [11] - The current direct sales ratio is about 60% - 70%, with a target of 80% [12] Caustic Soda Enterprise B - It has a capacity of 200,000 tons, with CPE as the downstream chlorine - consuming product and a small amount of liquid chlorine sold externally [13] - It has a storage capacity of 15,000 tons, a normal inventory level of 5,000 tons, and an inventory of about 2,000 - 3,000 tons during the survey [14] - It purchases electricity externally, with a delivered price of sea salt for production of 250 - 260 yuan/ton and a full production cost of caustic soda between 2,300 - 2,400 yuan [14] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will bottom out and rebound, with a minimum price of - 350 yuan. In April, there were few export orders, and the export outlook for May was not optimistic [16] - During the survey, it was believed that the spot price of caustic soda could still rise, but the duration might be short. Qingdao Bay planned to officially put into operation 200,000 tons in May, and Jinling planned to start the 50% caustic soda device on April 19th [17] Enterprise C (Caustic Soda Flakes Trader) - It is a secondary trader of caustic soda flakes, mainly sourcing from Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi. During the survey, the social inventory of caustic soda flakes in Shandong was low due to traders' pessimistic expectations [18] - The freight from Inner Mongolia to Shandong is 240 - 260 yuan/ton excluding tax, and from Xinjiang to Shandong is 480 yuan/ton. Shandong's caustic soda flakes mainly come from Inner Mongolia [18] - It has a short - term bearish view on the market, and the price of caustic soda flakes in Inner Mongolia was 3,250 yuan/ton during the survey, with an expected further decline [18] Enterprise D (Liquid Chlorine Trader) - It is a liquid chlorine trader. Due to the high requirements for production and transportation, the threshold for liquid chlorine traders is high [19] - The sales radius is generally within 300 kilometers. Liquid chlorine is usually shipped on the same day or the next day without inventory [19] - It is expected that liquid chlorine will not decline too much in the short term and may rebound to 1 - 100 yuan/ton, with a fluctuation range between - 300 and 200 yuan/ton. The liquid chlorine markets in Shandong and Jiangsu are differentiated, and summer is a relatively off - season for small liquid chlorine - consuming enterprises [21]

研究员： 屠越海 执业编号:Z0019382 审核：唐韵Z0002422 http://www.eafutures.com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】 1515号 能化产品周报—烧碱 2025年4月28日 基本面要点： 价格：4 月 25日，烧碱主力合约（SH2505）收盘报 2439元 / 吨，较前一交易日下跌1.26%。山东32%液碱折百价在2531元/吨附近。 供给：本周全国氯碱装置检修、提负并存，产能利用率环比-0.2%至82.1%，较上周变化不大。烧碱产量 ：79.20 万吨 ，环比-1.71 万吨。 需求：国内氧化铝开工率持续回落；粘胶短纤开工率环比-1.05%至77.17%，印染开工率环比-1.89%至60.06%。 库存： 库存方面，本周液碱工厂 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro Aspect**: Domestic important meetings have released positive policy signals, and the negative impact of US tariffs has weakened. Market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation [4]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: It is expected that the previously overhauled plants will resume production this week. The market's end - of - month settlement prices are gradually released, and demand for restocking has slowed down. The East China liquid caustic soda market is expected to be weak and stable. With the approaching of the May Day holiday, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices. To keep inventory levels stable, some enterprises have offered discounts on sales, which is reasonable [4]. - **Overall Logic**: The weak operation of alumina prices continues to have a negative feedback effect on caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the cost - end support below. Caustic soda may be weak and consolidate at a low level this week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has weakened again. The basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has fluctuated steadily. From April 18th to April 24th, the price of 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped from 820 yuan/ton to 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22%; the price of 50% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda dropped from 1460 yuan/ton to 1420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74%. The prices of other products such as raw salt, flake caustic soda, and light soda ash remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures (active contracts) compared with soda ash, alumina, PVC futures, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipts [15][16]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Affected by newly added overhaul plants in Northwest, Central, and South China, the load decreased, while the load in North and Southwest China increased after the overhaul of plants ended. In Shandong, there were both复产 and减产 enterprises, and the复产 capacity was greater than the减产 capacity, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 4.0% to 91%. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda will rise to about 84%, and the weekly output will be about 809,500 tons [20]. - **Downstream - Alumina**: There were both production increases and decreases in the alumina market during the week. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina increased significantly. Some previously overhauled alumina enterprises resumed production after the overhaul, while some enterprises started roasting furnace overhauls due to unstable product quality. As of April 24th, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 85.4 million tons, and the operating rate was 81.97% (+ 0.23%) [25]. - **Inventory Side**: As of April 24th, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in China was 24.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The storage capacity ratios in Northwest, Central, Northeast, and Southwest China increased month - on - month, while those in North, East, and South China decreased month - on - month [29]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 143 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25%. At the beginning of the week, the supply was stable, but downstream enterprises carried out plant overhauls due to profit shrinkage, resulting in a significant reduction in demand, poor trading atmosphere, and mostly lower prices. The price of liquid chlorine in Jiangsu also decreased following the trend in Shandong, with the current mainstream price at around - 250 yuan/ton. The downstream operating rate was not high, and purchases were made on demand. The mainstream price in Anhui was - 50 yuan/ton. The domestic PVC market continued to operate weakly [32]. - **Chlor - alkali Cost and Profit**: From April 18th to April 24th, 2025, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was 347 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 46.41%. During the week, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased, while the price of liquid chlorine decreased slightly, resulting in an overall increase in chlor - alkali profits [35].

中泰期货烧碱周报 2025年4月28日 --------氯强碱弱综合利润上涨 期货仓单数量稀少 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-81916257 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 目 录 CONTENTS 02 氯碱价格 03 烧碱供应 04 氯碱需求 01 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 氯碱综述 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 上周中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.1%，较上周环比-0.2。西北、华中、华南新增检修装置 | | | | 影响负荷下滑，周内华北、西南装置检修结束负荷提升。山东复产与减产企业并存，复产产能大于减产产能，山 | | | | 东产能利用率+4.0%至91%。本周来看，西北、华北、华中、华东、华南、西南均有装置复产，复产涉及企业较多， | | | | 因 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 (Caustic Soda) - The trend of caustic soda is weak. Macroeconomically, the trade war is difficult to end in the short - term. In the second quarter, it is in the off - season of demand, and profit compression and supply reduction are needed to balance supply and demand. Demand from the alumina industry is weak due to low profits and high inventory, and non - aluminum demand is generally weak. Although exports can support caustic soda, the possibility of continuous high - level stocking by foreign buyers is low. On the supply side, there will be new maintenance in May, but manufacturers' loads are generally high due to non - loss of profits. In operation, short positions can be taken for contracts 06 and 07, and reverse spreads can be used for 6 - 9 contracts. [5][7] 2.2 PVC - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The trade war is difficult to end in the short - term. Fundamentally, the northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the high - production and high - inventory structure in the first half of the year is difficult to ease. High production is hard to change in the short term as the maintenance volume in the first quarter was low, and the "using caustic soda to supplement chlorine" in the chlor - alkali industry chain makes large - scale production cuts difficult. High inventory pressure persists, and although exports can relieve the pressure periodically, the sustainability of exports is uncertain due to factors such as anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is weak. [8][10] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Views Overview - Caustic soda is in a weak trend, and PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The trade war has a negative impact on both products, affecting demand and export situations. [5][8] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,400 yuan/ton. The 09 basis of caustic soda strengthens, and the 6 - 9 month spread weakens. The 50 - 32 caustic soda spread is an advanced indicator of the market, currently higher than the evaporation cost, which is positive for caustic soda, but the high - price stocking of 50 - caustic soda is weak. China's caustic soda exports are expected to increase significantly year - on - year, mainly to Indonesia. The export FOB is around 400 - 415 US dollars/dry ton. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is small. [13][19][27] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 82.1%, a 0.2% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises above 200,000 tons nationwide is 408,500 tons (wet tons), a 3.02% decrease from the previous week and a 3.77% decrease year - on - year. There will be new maintenance in May, but manufacturers' loads are generally high due to non - loss of profits. In 2025, there will be 2.55 million tons of new caustic soda production capacity, a 5.2% increase. However, considering the continuous losses of downstream chlorine - consuming industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity launch may be lower than expected. [49][51][55] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina production starts to decline, inventory accumulates, and profits decline rapidly. The price of alumina is falling, and new maintenance and production - reduction capacities are increasing. Under low - profit conditions, the stocking demand for caustic soda weakens. Non - aluminum industries are generally affected by the trade war, with low demand. For example, the paper pulp, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries are all affected, while the water treatment industry has a relatively high year - on - year start - up rate, and the ternary precursor industry has a stable start - up. [85][98][110] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis changes little, and the 9 - 1 month spread changes little. [128] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The start - up of PVC has increased month - on - month but has not reached the level of production cuts in 2023. In April 2025, there were more PVC maintenance plans. There will be 2.1 million tons of new PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, and although there may be delays, the launch of ethylene - based production capacity is highly certain. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali marginal device is about - 870 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the profit of caustic soda in 2025. PVC production enterprises' inventories are accumulating, while social inventories are being depleted. PVC exports increased in January - February, and the number of warehouse receipts will rise again. [133][134][135]