离岸人民币兑美元升破6.97，最高升至6.9678，创2023年5月以来新高。 | VV | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | 6.97381 | 前收 6.98000 开盘 | | | | | -0.00619 | 菜品 6.97392 -0.09% 买入 | | | | | 最高 | 6.98173 今年来 -0.02% 20 日 | | | | | 最低 | 6.96870 10 日 -0.85% 60 日 | | | | | से स्थि | 五日 日K 月K | | | 白菜 | | 叠加 6.99130 | | | 均价: -- | | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | 6.98000 | | | 0.00% | 20.10 40 | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | 6.96870 | | | -0.16% 20:19 6.9 ...

社服行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 摘要 国家政策支持内需扩张，老龄化和 Z 世代崛起驱动体验式、个性化消费， 康养旅游和新消费成投资重点。 旅游出行行业持续复苏，各地促销活动显著推动，景区产业资源整合加 速，行业向高质量发展。 OTA 平台占据旅游产业链重要地位，美团、携程等通过差异化竞争提升 盈利能力并巩固核心竞争力。 酒店行业与经济状况密切相关，需求分化下供给降速，头部企业具备溢 价能力，建议关注首旅锦江、华住及亚朵等龙头企业。 免税行业关注度提升，低基数效应下数据转正，高货值商品比例提升客 单价，海南封关及新政带来增长空间，关注中免、王府井及珠海免税。 本地生活领域竞争激烈，美团面临京东、阿里等竞争对手，长期价值回 归存在分歧，但仍是值得关注的重要标的。 K12 教育领域政策逐步稳定和市场复苏，龙头企业如好未来、新东方等 受益于品牌力、教学质量和扩张能力。 Q&A 2026 年服务业消费的投资机会有哪些？ 旅游出行行业在 2026 年的发展趋势如何？ 随着全球重新开放及复苏，旅游出行行业将继续回暖。无论是出境游还是国内 游，都处于持续复苏状态。各地文旅部门和 OTA 平台（如美团、携程 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Duty-Free Industry Industry Overview - The duty-free market in Japan is influenced by Sino-Japanese relations, with a significant contribution from Chinese tourists, accounting for 23.7% of the total consumption in Japan, which is projected to reach approximately 30 billion RMB in 2024 [1][3] - The new duty-free policies in Hainan and the effects of customs closure have led to a 27% year-on-year increase in duty-free sales in November, with average transaction values rising by 41% [1][4] Key Insights - The growth in Hainan's duty-free market is expected to come from two main customer groups: departing tourists and local residents, alongside the attraction of high-end industries due to low tax policies [1][4] - The number of inbound tourists to Hainan reached 1.26 million by the end of November, a 31% increase year-on-year, supported by a visa-free policy for 86 countries, which is expected to continue attracting foreign visitors [1][5] - If 10% of Hainan's resident population of approximately 10.48 million converts to duty-free purchases, it could create a market potential of over 10 billion RMB [1][6] Competitive Landscape - The recent re-tendering of port channels has introduced a model of minimum rent plus sales commission, encouraging the introduction of popular products such as domestic goods, smartphones, and drones [1][7] - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) has established a joint venture at Shanghai Pudong Airport, which may slightly reduce its operating area and profits by approximately 100-200 million RMB [1][8] - Despite increased competition, CDFG maintains a competitive advantage by securing key segments at major airports [1][7] Future Expectations - The duty-free market is expected to grow further in 2026, driven by the visa-free policy and an expansion in product categories and duty-free store sizes [2][10] - The indoor store segment has seen the opening of 8 new stores, with existing stores undergoing upgrades, indicating a positive trend in the retail environment [2][10] - The online channel, which saw significant growth during the pandemic, is expected to focus more on driving traffic to physical stores rather than competing directly with e-commerce platforms [12] Long-term Industry Outlook - The duty-free market in Hainan is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory due to seasonal tourism peaks and favorable policies aimed at boosting consumption [13] - Major players like China Duty Free Group are expected to see sales growth of 20-30% and profit growth of 10-15% in the coming year, despite increased competition [14] - Wangfujing and Zhuhai Gongbei Port Group are also positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, with a focus on expanding their duty-free operations [14]

提成比例、保底费大幅下降 2025年末，国内免税行业迎来重磅变局，京沪两大核心枢纽机场免税经营权集中更迭。 12月28日，王府井（600859）发布中标公告，确认成为北京首都国际机场免税项目T2航站楼中标人， 这也是王府井在国内超大型国际枢纽机场的首次布局。 与此同时，中国中免（601888）全资子公司中国免税品（集团）也拿下3号航站楼免税经营权。 王府井、中免顺利分食首都机场核心免税标段，也标志着长期主导首都机场免税业务的"日上"正式离 场。 业内人士分析称，此次调整不仅将为出入境旅客带来更丰富的免税消费选择，也将推动国内免税行业在 核心交通枢纽场景的竞争与创新升级。 提成比例、保底费大幅下降 另一边，中免T3航站楼免税项目首年保底经营费达4.8亿元，首年销售额提成比例同样为5%。 对比以往，这次招标的核心条件大幅放宽。据2017年首都机场免税经营权招标结果，当时，中免集团和 日上免税行（中国）分别中标T2航站楼标段及T3航站楼标段，两大标段首年保底经营费合计30.3亿元， 销售额提成比例分别为47.5%和43.5%。 2023年，首都机场与中免签订新一轮免税补充协议，年保底经营费为5.58亿元，销售额提成 ...

⚫ 2025 年回顾：国内服务消费占比已提升至 47%，预计将进入快速增长 阶段，成为居民消费的主要构成部分。从政策着力点看，政策的长期性 和稳定性更受重视，服务消费在政策布局中的地位得到进一步凸显。从 估值角度看，社会服务板块当前市盈率仍低于近五年平均值，修复空间 仍存。 ⚫ 出行链：2025 年旅游市场收入承压，景区"冷热不均"成为突出特征。假 期时间的增加与春秋假制度的落地和推广将有效延长消费时长，出行需 求加速释放，行业迎来边际改善。 ⚫ 免税：机场免税市场格局迎来重要变革，引入国际免税零售商与机场股 权投资的双重创新有望为口岸免税市场注入新活力。政策利好与封关效 应直接催化离岛免税消费热潮，封关初期吸引的购物客流带动市场迅速 回暖。 ⚫ 餐饮：连锁化进程加速，头部餐饮企业通过标准化运营和品牌效应实现 快速扩张，行业预计将迎来加速出清，区域性连锁品牌加速向全国范围 扩店，具备规模优势和品牌效应的连锁龙头有望获得更大发展空间。 [Table_Title] 向阳花木易为春 [Table_ReportType] ——2026 年社会服务行业投资策略报告[Table_ReportDate] [行业核心观点： ...

Industry Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a large-scale equipment update and consumer goods replacement policy for 2026, providing a 15% subsidy for personal consumers purchasing specific electronic products, with a cap of 500 yuan per item [2] - The total subsidy amount of 625 billion yuan for 2026 is lower than the previous year's 800 billion yuan, indicating that the current subsidy policy does not exceed expectations [2] Company Insights - Zijin Mining (601899.SH) expects a net profit of approximately 51-52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 59%-62%, exceeding market expectations. The company plans to produce 105 tons of gold and 120 million tons of copper in 2026, with a continued positive outlook on long-term performance due to the demand for copper, silver, and lithium carbonate driven by the development of new energy and AI [3] - Changxin Technology Group reported a revenue of 32.08 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97.79%. The company expects to turn a profit for the full year 2025, benefiting from rising storage prices. The IPO aims to raise 29.5 billion yuan for technology upgrades and capacity expansion [4] Advanced Manufacturing Sector - Sodium-ion batteries are primarily in the demonstration application stage domestically, with commercial orders and profit growth focusing more on overseas markets. The core competitiveness of sodium batteries lies in their thermal safety and stability rather than direct cost competition with lithium batteries [7] Consumer Sector - The duty-free industry is experiencing a boost from the Hainan closure policy and the establishment of core airport channel patterns, with significant sales growth observed in the first week of the Hainan Free Trade Port's operation. The sales amount reached 1.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.9% [9] - The New Year's holiday tourism market shows a trend of short trips dominating, with 73.4% of trips being within three days. Young consumers are driving demand, with a notable increase in spending on unique experiences and themed activities [10]

行情回顾：年初至今社服板块整体跑输，板块基金持仓回落至历史低位，Q4以来底部企稳跑赢基准 今年以来社服板块整体涨14.55%，跑输沪深3003.81pct;伴随国家逐步出台促进消费相关政策，部分龙头 预期迎来企稳好转，叠加本身市场流动性好转，25Q4板块涨7.81%，跑赢沪深3007.45pct。细分板块以 结构性行情主导。细分来看，年初至今强α茶饮酒店龙头与强就业导向龙头领涨，Q4以来底部顺周期切 换下免税、酒店龙头领涨。2025Q3末国信社服板块重仓基金持仓比例0.29%，较25Q2下降0.10pct，处于 历史低位。 子行业：需求分层与供给迭代下表现分化，后续服务消费政策与CPI趋势是关键变量 免税：伴随政策发力、供给侧核心枢纽协议落地与龙头供应链强化，国内免税有望逐步承接高端需求 β，政策驱动的消费回流叙事与国货平台搭建有望助力新一轮周期与估值抬升。 国信证券发布研报称，2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重，其中我国居民服务消费对比海外具备较 大提升潜力，有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手，金钱、时间、供给侧约束都为 政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲 ...

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed a growth style leading the rally in December, with the ChiNext and North Star 50 indices rising over 5% [1] - The core drivers for the cyclical sector include economic recovery expectations and the revaluation of strategic resources, particularly benefiting from global manufacturing recovery and resource security themes [1][2] - The growth style focuses on technological self-reliance and new productivity, with capital concentrating on sectors like defense, communication, and AI-related high-end manufacturing [1][2] Group 2 - In January, the A-share market will enter a critical data verification period, influenced by policy effects, macro data, corporate performance, and liquidity changes, leading to potential increased volatility [2] - Key sectors such as defense, 6G, and satellite internet will require performance or order validation to digest previous gains, while commercial aerospace and AI computing sectors may still present active opportunities [2] - Strategic resource segments, especially rare metals like antimony, tungsten, and rare earths, are being revalued by the market due to their essential role in advanced technology breakthroughs [2] Group 3 - The company has excellent asset allocation in mineral resources, with a projected CAGR of 24% for copper production and 12% for gold production from 2020 to 2024, leading in growth among major copper/gold mining companies [6] - The company has successfully completed several significant acquisitions, contributing to production and profit, with ongoing projects expected to support sustainable growth in copper and gold businesses [6][8] - The company has effectively controlled costs, with production costs for copper and gold remaining competitive, positioning it within the top 20% globally [7] Group 4 - The company is benefiting from a stable coal production capacity of 48 million tons/year and has seen an increase in profitability due to low extraction costs and high long-term contracts [18] - The company is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity, with a projected increase to 121,000 tons/year by the end of 2025, supported by cost advantages from proximity to coal sources [19] - The company is actively promoting clean energy transition, with significant growth in renewable energy installations, aiming for 700,000 kW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [19] Group 5 - The company is a leading supplier of air conditioning refrigeration valves, with rapid growth in automotive and humanoid robot businesses, actively developing new growth curves [47] - The company achieved a revenue of 240.29 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 16.86%, and a net profit of 32.42 billion yuan, up 40.85% [47] - The company is focusing on the development of robotic components, with plans for overseas mass production to strengthen its position in the global supply chain [49]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption in 2026, highlighting a year of strategic layout and potential improvements in specific sectors and cycles [4][6][8] - The overall recovery of the service sector is characterized by a moderate rebound and structural prosperity, with service consumption growth outpacing that of goods consumption [11][12] - The report identifies three key changes affecting demand, policy, and technology, including a shift towards more rational consumer behavior, the impact of policy and globalization on corporate decisions, and accelerated technological iterations [11][4][6] Group 2 - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on boosting domestic demand, with significant potential for service consumption in China compared to developed countries [19][26] - The report outlines specific sub-sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and education, which are expected to perform differently based on demand and supply dynamics [7][8][34] - Recommendations include focusing on cyclical recovery and sector-specific prosperity, with suggested investments in companies like China Duty Free Group, Huazhu Group, and Meituan [4][34][8] Group 3 - The report notes that the service sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 14.55%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index [14][12] - Structural trends indicate that leading companies in tea drinks and hotels have outperformed, while duty-free and hotel stocks have shown strength in the fourth quarter [14][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy measures aimed at enhancing service consumption, including various initiatives to stimulate demand and improve the consumer environment [26][28][27]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内上涨 6.28%，跑赢大盘 4.61pct。报告 期内（2025 年 12 月 15 日-2025 年 12 月 28 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的 股票为中国中免（16.91%）、中教控股（13.76%）、科德教育、凯撒旅业、 首旅酒店、同道猎聘、君亭酒店、天立国际控股、桂林旅游、豆神教育。 行业与公司动态：海南全岛封关运作首周离岛免税购物金额即实现 11 亿 元，同比增长 54.9%，人均消费达 6667 元，同比增长 16%；上海浦东、 虹桥机场及北京首都机场免税店招标结果相继落地，中国中免成功连中 三标。亚朵持续推进产品迭代以提振经营效率，旗下新品"亚朵 3.6" 通过模块化建设实现筹建周期缩短 20%，首批门店 RevPAR 显著优于同商 圈酒店。临近元旦假期，旅游市场升温，2026 年元旦假期国内航线机票 预订量已突破 106 万张，同比增长约 45%；出入境航线预订量超 53 万张， 同比增长 15%。此外，氛围十足且活动丰富的主题乐园成为年轻人跨年 狂欢的又一选择。12 月 27 日至 28 日，东方甄选"看世界"团队赴 ...