行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 10 日 金属价格强势突破，有色板块景气 持续 看好 ——有色金属行业 2025Q4 业绩前瞻 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 有色金属 - ⚫ 贵金属： 1 月美联储议息会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间在 3.50%-3.75%，鲍威尔表示通胀的上行风险 和就业的下行风险都已减弱；没有太多数据表明外国投资者正在对其美元资产进行大规模对冲。特朗普 30 日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is currently experiencing fluctuations, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) showing a morning high of 0.79% but later declining by 0.35% [1][9]. Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF opened at 1.137, reached a high of 1.144, and is currently trading at 1.131, reflecting a decrease of 0.35% [2][9]. - Key stocks in the sector include Shenghe Resources and Bowei Alloys, which rose over 2%, while Zhongfu Industrial and Xiamen Tungsten also saw gains exceeding 1% [13]. Macroeconomic Factors - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan indicated that potential inflation is not a concern, and there is no significant price pressure observed in the economy. The Fed may need to cut rates by more than 100 basis points this year [4][10]. - The market is currently reacting to changes in the geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding Iran, which has influenced gold price volatility [4][11]. Industry Trends - Rare earth product prices are accelerating, with significant increases in praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices, which rose by 7.59% and 6.27% respectively on February 9. The cumulative increase for praseodymium oxide this year has reached 34% [4][11]. - Analysts expect a continued widening of the supply-demand gap for rare earths by 2026, driven by tight supply and increased demand from downstream magnetic material companies [4][11]. Investment Opportunities - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a comprehensive tool for investors to capture the beta performance of the entire sector [5][12]. - The non-ferrous metal industry is anticipated to enter a resource super cycle, with prices for metals like gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and rare earths expected to rise systematically [4][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378.HK) is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 18.675 billion, 25.299 billion, and 27.176 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [1] - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16 times for the year 2026, reflecting a premium valuation due to the company's leading position in the electrolytic aluminum industry [1] - The target price for China Hongqiao is set at 45.58 HKD, based on an exchange rate of 0.89 HKD to RMB [1] Group 2 - The market capitalization of China Hongqiao is 344.265 billion HKD, making it the top company in the industrial metals sector [1] - Over the past 90 days, three investment banks have issued buy ratings for the stock, with an average target price of 40.02 HKD [1] - The latest report from Global Fortune Management also gives a buy rating for China Hongqiao, with a target price of 45.58 HKD [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On February 9, the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with platinum rising over 10%, silver over 8%, and palladium over 7% [1][2]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1664.20 points, up 34.86 points or 2.14% from the previous trading day [1]. - The overall commodity index also increased by 48.07 points, closing at 2294.88 points, reflecting a similar 2.14% rise [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced a strong rebound, led by platinum's increase of 10.58%, silver's rise of 8.90%, and palladium's gain of 7.59% [2]. - Factors contributing to this rally include a weaker US dollar, increased buying interest, and China's central bank's gold purchases in January, which totaled 40,000 ounces, exceeding the previous month's 30,000 ounces [2]. - Despite positive consumer confidence in the US, the dollar index was not significantly boosted, and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supported bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Insights - Industrial metals also saw gains, with lithium carbonate rising over 3% due to ongoing inventory depletion [3]. - The price of lithium carbonate briefly surpassed 140,000 yuan per ton, supported by a tight supply-demand balance despite lower production during the Chinese New Year [3]. - Data showed that lithium carbonate weekly production was 20,744 tons, down 825 tons week-on-week, while social inventory decreased by 2,019 tons, reinforcing the expectation of sustained demand [3]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Trends - Styrene experienced a significant drop of nearly 3%, attributed to weakening cost support from oil prices and declining demand as the Chinese New Year approached [4]. - The market anticipates an increase in styrene supply due to returning maintenance schedules, while downstream demand is expected to decrease during the holiday [4]. - For silicon and manganese silicon, both commodities fell over 1%, with current low iron water production limiting upward price potential [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding upcoming US economic data releases, which may impact precious metals [2]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face short-term limitations on price rebounds due to macroeconomic influences and slowing transaction volumes as the holiday approaches [3]. - The outlook for silicon and manganese silicon prices will depend on the balance between supply excess and demand resilience in the steel sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market is experiencing increased volatility and overall weakness, influenced by geopolitical tensions, a stronger dollar, and diverging global economic growth expectations [3][15]. Group 1: Market Overview - The energy sector is expected to face downward pressure on oil prices due to anticipated supply being relatively loose [15]. - Precious metals are showing a "short-term pullback, long-term bullish" trend, with gold prices supported by global uncertainties and ongoing central bank purchases [15]. - Industrial metals are experiencing significant differentiation, with demand for metals related to new energy, AI, and power transition remaining resilient [15]. - The competition for strategic resources like rare earths is intensifying, with supply chain security becoming a key focus for various countries [15]. Group 2: Commodity Trends - The overall trend in commodities is characterized as oscillating, with strong bullish sectors including non-ferrous metals, precious metals, and energy chemicals, while agricultural products are underperforming [16]. - Notable bullish commodities include tin, gold, lithium carbonate, and alumina, while bearish markets include rebar, iron ore, hot-rolled steel, and live pigs [16]. - The global financial market is maintaining a mixed oscillating pattern, with stable macro sentiment and no extreme risks or strong stimulus policies impacting commodity pricing [16]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Performance - The company executed a bearish strategy on caustic soda, achieving a maximum profit of 25% before exiting the position [17]. - A bearish strategy was also implemented for live pigs, with entry points set between 11,500-11,600, stop-loss at 11,700-11,800, and take-profit at 11,400-11,300, based on supply and inventory fundamentals [17]. - Alumina is being closely monitored due to its significant price increase, indicating a strong bullish trend [18]. Group 4: Reflections and Future Strategies - The effectiveness of trend trading is highlighted, with caustic soda continuing its downward trend and alumina experiencing rapid upward movement [21]. - The market is showing extreme differentiation, necessitating a focus on strong trend commodities while avoiding weak and volatile trades [21]. - Strict risk management practices are in place, including position limits and defined stop-loss and take-profit levels, with ongoing monitoring of alumina's bullish trend and live pigs' bearish trend [21].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 02 月 09 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不改 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万）指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China for 15 consecutive months, alongside spot gold prices returning to $5,000 per ounce, which has led to heightened activity in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the Huabao ETF [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao ETF (159876) has seen a price increase of over 2.5% during the day, currently up by 1.89% [1][9]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Shenghe Resources and Hunan Silver, have surged over 9%, while Silver Nonferrous has risen by more than 6% [5][11]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with job vacancies dropping to 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020, significantly below the expected 7.25 million [2][12]. - The previous month's job vacancy data was revised down from 7.146 million to 6.928 million, indicating a continued weakening in labor demand [2][12]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, suggests that the Fed may need to implement one or two more rate cuts to address the weak labor market conditions [3][13]. - Current inflation is eroding wage income for American workers, and new job opportunities are scarce [3][13]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook - According to Zhongjin Company, the rigid demand driven by AI computing expansion and energy transition, along with structural supply-demand gaps for certain commodities, indicates that the structural market for bulk commodities may not have ended [3][13]. - The article suggests that after a short-term adjustment, resource stocks are expected to regain upward momentum [3][13]. Group 5: ETF Overview - The Huabao ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [4][13]. - The ETF serves as an efficient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the non-ferrous metals sector [4][13].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous increase in gold reserves by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) for 15 consecutive months has positively impacted the performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, which saw a price increase of 2.61% on February 9 [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) experienced a strong rise, recovering above the 5-day moving average with a price increase of 2.61% [1][10]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector showed significant gains, with Hunan Silver leading at over 4%, followed by Shenghe Resources, Northern Rare Earth, and Xingye Silver Zinc, all rising by more than 3% [1][12]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The PBOC has increased its gold reserves to 7,419 million ounces as of January 2026, up from 7,415 million ounces at the end of December 2025, marking the 15th consecutive month of gold accumulation [3][12]. - The demand for gold from the central bank remains strong, which is expected to provide a supportive floor for gold prices, even amid short-term fluctuations [4][13]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may rebound to a ten-year high of $5,600 in the second quarter, with potential to reach $6,000 by the end of the year, driven by ongoing bullish sentiment in the market [4][13]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to maintain a strong performance due to supply-demand mismatches, macroeconomic easing, and industrial upgrades, with high profitability anticipated to last for 3-5 years [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, and Chalco [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite short-term fluctuations in macro sentiment, the long-term bullish trend for non-ferrous metals remains intact. The Chinese central bank's increased gold purchases in January have provided a strong boost to precious metals [2][41]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of copper reserves, suggesting that the Chinese government is looking to expand its copper strategic reserve system [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with a stable production capacity but increasing social inventory [4]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to a cooling macro sentiment, with significant price drops observed in recent weeks [5]. - The report notes that tin prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Lithium prices have seen a decline, with ongoing inventory reduction, while cobalt prices are also under pressure as trading activity weakens ahead of the holiday season [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In January, the People's Bank of China increased its gold purchases from 0.93 tons to 1.24 tons, injecting confidence into the precious metals market. The largest silver ETF also saw a significant increase in holdings, indicating long-term investor confidence [2][41]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report stresses the importance of copper strategic reserves, with a recent increase in global copper inventories. The Chinese government is exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is facing short-term price volatility due to geopolitical issues and macroeconomic policies, with production capacity remaining stable but social inventories increasing [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have dropped significantly, with SHFE nickel falling 5.8% to 132,000 CNY/ton due to cooling macro sentiment [5]. - **Tin**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to remain volatile [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report indicates a decline in lithium prices, with carbonate prices dropping 13.2% to 138,000 CNY/ton. Inventory levels are also decreasing [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are under pressure, with a 6.3% drop in domestic electrolytic cobalt prices to 410,000 CNY/ton as trading activity slows [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [7] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing significant price volatility, with silver prices retreating from highs due to profit-taking and macroeconomic factors [3][14] - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are undergoing price corrections influenced by macroeconomic conditions, with copper prices showing signs of recovery despite inventory accumulation [4][20] - In the new energy metals sector, lithium carbonate prices have sharply declined, but strong demand signals from downstream industries may support a rebound in prices post-holiday [22][27] - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are showing mixed price movements, with some products experiencing upward pressure due to supply constraints [24][27] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have seen a significant drop, with fluctuations driven by market sentiment and macroeconomic news, including the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair [3][14] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in the gold sector [15] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have corrected, but market activity has increased, with strong buying sentiment noted despite the holiday season affecting production schedules [4][20] - Aluminum prices have experienced volatility, with a notable drop followed by a brief recovery, although the overall supply-demand structure remains weak [20][21] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased significantly, but robust demand from downstream sectors indicates potential for price recovery in the near future [22][27] - Key stocks in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium and others [23] Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market has shown mixed price trends, with some products like praseodymium-neodymium oxide experiencing upward price movements due to supply constraints [24][27] - Stocks to monitor include Hunan Gold and others in the minor metals sector [27]