转自：每日甘肃网-甘肃日报 全省住房城乡建设工作会议在兰州召开 每日甘肃网兰州1月22日讯（新甘肃·甘肃日报记者杜雪琴）全省住房城乡建设工作会议今天上午在兰州 召开。省委常委、副省长雷思维出席会议并讲话。 记者杜雪琴 会议指出，"十四五"以来，全省住建系统紧紧围绕省委、省政府中心工作，着力补短板、强弱项、提品 质、优功能，城乡基础设施不断完善，人居环境持续改善，行业管理稳步提质，"十四五"目标如期实 现，全省住建事业实现跨越式发展。今年，全省住建系统要围绕中央城市工作会议部署，按照省委省政 府具体安排，大力实施城市更新行动，积极探索房地产发展新模式，加快构建现代化建筑产业体系，奋 力实现"十五五"良好开局。 责任编辑：杨晨雨 会议强调，要锚定"十五五"发展，聚焦现代化人民城市建设、房地产高质量发展、建筑业转型升级集中 发力，抢抓国家战略部署和政策机遇，强化规划引领、项目支撑、机制保障，切实把政策机遇转化为发 展实效。要扛牢扛实稳增长责任，发挥建筑业、房地产业支柱作用，助力全省经济高质量发展。要深入 实施城市更新行动，科学编制更新规划，完善政策支撑体系，加快项目落地实施，推动城市高质量发 展。要维护社会大局稳定 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the post-pandemic era, Chinese residents' savings willingness has surged, with total deposits reaching an astonishing 9.9 trillion yuan in Q1 2023, averaging 3.3 trillion yuan per month, driven by risk aversion and future concerns [1] Group 1: Reasons for Increased Savings - The first reason for increased savings is the unpredictable risks associated with investment channels such as stocks, funds, and real estate, making bank deposits a safer option [3] - The second reason is the desire to accumulate sufficient funds to prepare for potential risks like unemployment, illness, and retirement, as families feel insecure without a certain amount of cash [3] Group 2: Concerns About Holding Cash - Holding large amounts of cash may lead to difficulties due to inflation eroding purchasing power, with current price levels significantly higher than in the past [5] - Investment channels are limited, with the real estate market under pressure and fund investments carrying loss risks, making it hard for many to keep up with inflation through bank deposits [5] - Continuous decline in deposit interest rates since the second half of 2021 has exacerbated anxiety among cash holders, as rates above 4% are now rare [5] Group 3: Counterarguments to Cash Holding Concerns - Holding substantial cash provides a sense of security and ensures a stable living condition over time, contrasting with those without savings who face greater challenges amid rising prices [7] - Current bubbles in real estate and stock markets suggest that cautious investors may choose to wait for market adjustments before making investments, preserving their wealth [7] - For risk-tolerant investors, a diversified asset allocation strategy remains viable, allowing for a mix of bank deposits, government bonds, and equity funds to mitigate risks while seeking higher returns [9] Group 4: Conclusion - Holding cash is not inherently negative; a rational investment mindset and proper asset allocation are essential for wealth preservation and growth in a complex economic environment [10]

记者丨陈洁 实习生王钦颖 编辑丨周上祺 视频丨陈泽锴 "其实今年抢票还算顺利，不过从早上10点15分开始，到抢到票的10点18分，对我来说也算'惊 险三分钟'。"长居广州的李婷告诉21世纪经济报道，她在1月27日上午，成功抢到了2月10日从 广州返回老家的春运火车票。 不仅仅是购买火车票，记者采访了解到， 一些热门目的地的机票也并不好买。 家在河南的杨婧告诉21世纪经济报道，今年春节她计划和两位同学一起去云南西双版纳过年， 为了成功抢到票，她们设置了三个策略。 "春运期间直达西双版纳的机票很难抢，我们提前做了三个方案，第一个是提前40天在航空公 司APP设置低价提醒，第二个是选择除夕附近出发的早班机，价格相对便宜，第三个是准备了 备选方案，如果抢不到票就全程高铁，在昆明玩一天再转车。"杨婧表示。 同程旅行相关负责人接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示，春节前，铁路热门出发城市主要为 广州、重庆、北京、成都、上海、深圳 等一线及区域中心城市。热门到达城市以 重庆、成 都、广州、贵阳、北京、郑州 等为主。 2026年春运从2月2日开始，一直持续至3月13日，共计40天。按照提前15天开始购票计算， 春 运"抢票大战 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, the number of companies with a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan increased by 1, while those exceeding 100 billion yuan increased by 427, and companies with a market capitalization below 20 million yuan decreased by 379 [1] - The median market capitalization of listed companies reached 6.508 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 30% year-on-year increase [1] - By the end of 2025, there were 5,477 listed companies in the domestic stock market, with 2,302 on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, 2,887 on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and 288 on the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] Group 2 - State-controlled listed companies accounted for 27% of the total, while privately controlled companies made up 63%, with manufacturing companies dominating at 3,743 [2] - The manufacturing sector saw a net increase of 91 companies, primarily in the electrical, electronic, and communication industries, while the real estate sector saw a net decrease of 6 companies [2] - By the end of 2025, the total market capitalization of listed companies in the domestic market approached 109 trillion yuan, marking the highest point in the last five years [2]

过去五年，中国房地产市场经历了一场罕见的深刻调整，房地产在家庭财富中的作用发生本质转变。与 此同时，随着银行利率持续走低，居民理财收益下降，存款"搬家"现象呈加速趋势。 站在资产配置的十字路口，普通人何去何从？当房地产普涨时代落幕，什么样的房产能够穿越周期、实 现保值增值？股市能否接棒楼市，成为居民财富增长的新引擎？在避险情绪中屡创新高的黄金还能涨多 久？ 本期《思路打开》对话中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平，深入解析中国的 楼市、股市和居民资产配置的逻辑重构。 【对话/连平&王慧】 王慧：连平老师您好，今天想从房地产开始，跟您聊聊中国居民的资产配置问题。过去五年，中国的房 地产经历了一场罕见的深刻调整。2026年中央定调要"着力稳定房地产市场"。这个"稳定"是什么意思？ 是指市场完成探底开始企稳，还是说市场正在以平稳的态势逐步寻底、筑底？ 连平：从物理的角度来看，"稳定"是一种水平运动。从房地产市场本身来看，我认为目前至少应该是结 束或者停止向下的过程，也就是说，要结束探底的过程，然后进入横盘筑底阶段。这可能是"稳定"真实 的含义所在。 现在从成交量、价格、工程推进力度等方面来看，房地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported a total RMB loan balance of 271.91 trillion yuan at the end of Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, with an annual increase of 16.27 trillion yuan [2] Group 1: Loan Growth by Sector - Corporate loans showed a rebound with a total balance of 186.21 trillion yuan, growing by 8.9% year-on-year, and an annual increase of 15.24 trillion yuan [3] - Short-term loans and bill financing reached 64.16 trillion yuan, up 11.0% year-on-year, with an annual increase of 6.37 trillion yuan [3] - Medium to long-term loans for enterprises totaled 118.39 trillion yuan, growing by 7.9% year-on-year, with an annual increase of 8.69 trillion yuan [3] Group 2: Industrial and Service Sector Loans - Industrial medium to long-term loans stood at 26.63 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, adding 2.11 trillion yuan for the year [4] - Service sector medium to long-term loans reached 72.87 trillion yuan, growing by 7.8% year-on-year, with an annual increase of 5.24 trillion yuan [4] - Infrastructure-related medium to long-term loans totaled 43.73 trillion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year, with an annual increase of 2.8 trillion yuan [4] Group 3: Inclusive and Green Loans - Inclusive micro and small loans reached 36.57 trillion yuan, growing by 11.1% year-on-year, with an annual increase of 3.63 trillion yuan [5] - Green loans saw significant growth, totaling 44.77 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.2%, adding 7.72 trillion yuan for the year [6] - The balance of agricultural loans was 53.57 trillion yuan, growing by 6.5% year-on-year, with an annual increase of 3.44 trillion yuan [8] Group 4: Real Estate Loans - Real estate loans decreased to 51.95 trillion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, with an annual reduction of 9.636 trillion yuan [9] - Real estate development loans were 13.16 trillion yuan, declining by 3.0% year-on-year, with an annual decrease of 3.575 trillion yuan [9] - Personal housing loans totaled 37.01 trillion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, with an annual reduction of 6.768 trillion yuan [9] Group 5: Support for Technology and Consumer Loans - Loans to technology-based SMEs reached 3.63 trillion yuan, growing by 19.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than overall loan growth [10] - Household loans amounted to 83.28 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, adding 4.412 trillion yuan for the year [11] - Operating loans reached 25.11 trillion yuan, growing by 4.0% year-on-year, with an annual increase of 9.378 trillion yuan [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is in the early stages of recovery in 2025, with 2026 being a crucial year for sustaining this recovery through effective counter-cyclical policies, particularly in monetary policy [2][3]. Economic Indicators - In 2025, various financial indicators such as the stock market, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits showed significant improvement, indicating early signs of economic recovery [3]. - Corporate profits have halted a multi-year decline, and overall consumption and labor market conditions are stable [3]. Factors Driving Recovery - The recovery is primarily driven by three factors: 1. Support from counter-cyclical policies, especially increased government borrowing and spending [3]. 2. Successful navigation of the tariff war initiated by the U.S., which helped maintain export momentum [3]. 3. Price adjustments over previous years have provided support for market rebounds [3]. Weaknesses in Recovery - The foundation of the economic recovery is fragile, heavily reliant on fiscal borrowing and external demand, with insufficient internal growth drivers [3]. - Weak investment willingness from private enterprises and low consumer confidence in housing and spending are significant concerns [3]. Private Investment Concerns - From 2010 to 2021, the average return on assets for listed companies was 6.7%, while the average yield on 10-year government bonds was 3.4%, resulting in a consistent spread of 3.3% [4]. - However, from 2022 to 2025, the average return on assets dropped to 2.7%, and the yield on government bonds fell to 2.4%, narrowing the spread to only 0.3%, which negatively impacts private investment enthusiasm [4]. - The average growth rate of private fixed asset investment fell from 14.4% (2010-2021) to -1.2% (2022-2025) [4]. Housing Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the cost of buying a home has become less favorable compared to renting, with mortgage rates averaging 3.9% and second-hand home price growth at -4.8% from 2022 to 2025, leading to a buying cost of 8.7% [5]. - This unfavorable comparison has exerted downward pressure on housing prices [5]. Impact of Interest Rates - Interest rates significantly influence housing prices, with even minor reductions in rates having substantial effects on price increases [6]. - The decline in private investment has weakened overall spending growth, leading to slower income growth for residents, which adversely affects consumption [6]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining necessary government borrowing and spending while emphasizing the importance of loose monetary policy in expanding domestic demand [7]. - Monetary policy should aim to improve expectations and optimize the budget constraints and incentives for both corporate investment and consumer spending [7]. - Achieving these changes requires a decisive stance from the central bank on inflation targets and a significant reduction in policy interest rates [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's corporate credit index shows a steady improvement, reaching 162.18 in Q4 2025, indicating a generally positive trend in corporate credit levels [1] - The corporate credit index increased by 0.52 points from Q3 to Q4 2025, maintaining a historically high level [1] - By December 2025, the corporate credit index further rose to 162.32, reflecting ongoing stability in credit levels across various regions [1] Group 2 - All industry credit indices experienced quarter-on-quarter growth in Q4 2025, with notable increases in the financial, real estate, and leasing sectors [2] - The top five industries by credit index in Q4 2025 were finance, education, electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply, manufacturing, and water conservancy, environment, and public facilities management [2] - By December 2025, the leading industries remained the same, indicating a solid foundation for continued improvement in industry credit levels [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline expanding [3][13] - Second-hand home transaction area has increased month-on-month and turned positive year-on-year [3][13] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has increased [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 16,000 units, down 16.2% month-on-month and down 32.2% year-on-year [14][20] - The new home transaction area was 151.5 million square meters, down 9.7% month-on-month and down 39.6% year-on-year [22][39] - Transaction volume and area for first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed varying declines [14][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transaction volume was 20,000 units, up 2.9% month-on-month and up 9.1% year-on-year [49][51] - The transaction area was 188.2 million square meters, up 4.4% month-on-month and up 18.1% year-on-year [51][52] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities exhibited different growth rates in transaction volume and area [45][49] 3. Inventory Situation - New home inventory in 12 cities was 1.373 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [35][38] - The de-stocking cycle for new home inventory was 17.7 months, increasing month-on-month and year-on-year [27][38] - Inventory levels and de-stocking cycles varied across city tiers [26][27] 4. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,044.9 million square meters, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 0.4% year-on-year [59][60] - Total land transaction value was 16.33 billion yuan, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 15.5% year-on-year [10][65] - The average land price per square meter was 1,562.8 yuan, up 1.7% month-on-month but down 15.8% year-on-year [10][61] 5. Policy Insights - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to support urban renewal [3] - Emphasis on stabilizing housing prices and improving market confidence through various policy measures [3][11]

区域企业信用水平平稳波动。第四季度，全国多数区域信用指数环比实现正增长，但整体呈窄幅波动。 在此背景下，安徽、陕西、北京、天津、重庆保持领先。12月份，信用指数排名前五的省份、直辖市分 别为安徽、浙江、重庆、陕西、天津，整体运行平稳。其中，广西等地指数环比增幅明显，排名大幅上 升。 行业企业信用水平稳中有进。相较于第三季度，第四季度所有行业信用指数均实现环比增长，其中金融 业、房地产业、租赁和商务服务业增幅显著。第四季度，信用指数排名前五的行业分别为金融业、教 育、电力热力燃气及水生产和供应业、制造业、水利环境和公共设施管理业，行业信用水平持续蓄势向 好的基础更为牢固。12月份，行业信用指数出现普遍回调，信用指数排名前五的行业分别为金融业、制 造业、教育、电力热力燃气及水生产和供应业、水利环境和公共设施管理业。 全国企业信用水平高位波动。第四季度中国企业信用指数较第三季度上升0.52点，低于第二季度0.11 点。尽管季度间略有波动，企业信用水平总体仍延续了长期向好的基本态势，并处于历史较高水平。12 月份，中国企业信用指数为162.32，较11月份下降0.34点。 本报讯(记者寇佳丽)1月26日，记者从国家市 ...