Core Viewpoint - *ST Zhengping (sh603843) reached the daily limit with a price of 6.16 yuan, reflecting a 5.03% increase, driven by expectations of ST removal, infrastructure sector support, and market attention from the Dragon and Tiger list [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company primarily engages in infrastructure construction, cultural tourism, and non-ferrous metal mining, providing comprehensive services across multiple sectors [1] - Market expectations for improved performance ahead of the third quarterly report may lead to the potential removal of the ST designation, stimulating stock price increases [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The infrastructure sector is anticipated to receive policy support, with increasing market demand for infrastructure construction, contributing to the positive performance of related stocks [1] - Recent data indicates that some stocks in the infrastructure sector have been active, creating a sector-wide momentum that positively impacts *ST Zhengping as a related enterprise [1] Group 3: Market Activity - On October 24, 2025, the company was included in the Dragon and Tiger list, with a total transaction amount of 86.28 million yuan, indicating high market interest despite slightly higher selling than buying [1] - The presence on the Dragon and Tiger list attracted more investor attention, with some trading based on this information, further driving the stock price to its limit [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum International (中铝国际) experienced a significant stock price fluctuation, surging 30% before a decline of over 10% in early trading, currently trading at 3 HKD with a transaction volume of 146 million HKD. This volatility is linked to potential asset exchange discussions with Rio Tinto Group [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - China Aluminum International's stock surged by 30% yesterday but has since dropped by 7.69% to 3 HKD as of the latest report [1]. - The trading volume reached 146 million HKD, indicating high market activity [1]. Group 2: Asset Exchange Discussions - Reports suggest that Rio Tinto Group is exploring the possibility of an asset exchange with China Aluminum Group, where the latter may exchange part of its shares for certain mining assets from Rio Tinto [1]. - Potential assets of interest for China Aluminum Group include the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea and the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia, as well as Rio Tinto's titanium business [1]. Group 3: Company Overview - The chairman of China Aluminum International, Li Yihua, highlighted the company's global service capabilities and extensive overseas experience [1]. - The company operates 14 overseas institutions and has established a presence in six major overseas markets, achieving localized operations across various countries, including Indonesia, Italy, and Guinea [1]. - China Aluminum International has formed partnerships with over 40 countries and regions, collaborating with enterprises, research institutions, and universities [1].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% to close at 3889.5 points, with a high of 3895.83 points during the day [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.93% to 13231.47 points, reaching a peak of 13256.51 points [1] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 1.11% to 3078.76 points, with a maximum of 3096.4 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was -0.49% [2] - The highest performing scale index ETF was the Southern CSI 50 Enhanced Strategy ETF, with a return of 2.56% [2] - The highest performing industry index ETF was the China Tai CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme ETF, with a return of 4.59% [2] - The highest performing thematic index ETF was the E Fund CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF, achieving a return of 7.78% [2] ETF Gain and Loss Rankings - The top three ETFs by gain were: - E Fund CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF (7.78%) [4] - Fuguo CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF (7.34%) [4] - Harvest CSI Rare Earth Industry ETF (6.96%) [4] - The top three ETFs by loss were: - Tibet Dongcai CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug Industry ETF (-3.24%) [4] - Fuguo CSI Smart Car Theme ETF (-3.15%) [4] - Huatai-PB CSI Smart Car Theme ETF (-3.14%) [4] ETF Fund Flow - The top three ETFs by fund inflow were: - Huabao CSI Bank ETF (inflow of 1.131 billion yuan) [6] - E Fund CSI 300 ETF Initiated (inflow of 1.079 billion yuan) [6] - Southern CSI Shenwan Nonferrous Metals ETF (inflow of 1.063 billion yuan) [6] - The top three ETFs by fund outflow were: - Southern CSI 500 ETF (outflow of 696 million yuan) [6] - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (outflow of 495 million yuan) [6] - Huaan ChiNext 50 ETF (outflow of 472 million yuan) [6] ETF Margin Trading Overview - The top three ETFs by margin buying were: - Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Component ETF (974 million yuan) [8] - E Fund ChiNext ETF (814 million yuan) [8] - Guotai Junan CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF (640 million yuan) [8] - The top three ETFs by margin selling were: - Southern CSI 500 ETF (171 million yuan) [9] - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (107 million yuan) [9] - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (39.51 million yuan) [9] Institutional Insights - Guojin Securities noted that the strategic attributes of the rare earth sector have increased due to enhanced control measures, with expectations of price impacts reflecting previous "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" logic [10] - CITIC Construction Investment projected that the demand for rare earth permanent magnet materials will be concentrated in the fourth quarter, supported by strong orders from downstream manufacturers [11]

Core Points - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will end on October 16, with new regulations implemented for annual export quotas starting from that date [1][2] - The DRC is the largest cobalt producer globally, accounting for 75.86% of the world's production in 2024 [2] Export Quota Management - The annual export quota for cobalt will be set based on the export performance of companies in 2022, 2023, and 2024, with a total export limit of 18,125 tons for the remainder of 2025 [1] - In 2026, the maximum export volume will be 96,600 tons, which includes a base quota of 87,000 tons and a strategic quota of 9,600 tons [1] - The export quotas for 2027 will remain the same as those for 2026 [1] Major Companies and Their Quotas - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. will receive a cobalt export quota of 6,500 tons in Q4 2025 and 31,200 tons in 2026, which is more than one-third of the DRC's 2026 base quota [1] - Despite this, the quotas are significantly lower than the company's production capacity, which is projected at 114,165 tons in 2024 [1] - Glencore will receive a cobalt export quota of 3,925 tons in Q4 2025 [2] Impact on Cobalt Prices - The export ban has led to a significant increase in cobalt prices, with the latest price for electrolytic cobalt in China reaching 349,500 yuan per ton, doubling since the beginning of the year [2] - The new export regulations are expected to have a major impact on the supply-demand dynamics of cobalt, likely pushing prices above 400,000 yuan per ton, which would positively affect company performance [2]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have reached new highs, nearing $4000 per ounce as of October 6, 2025, significantly ahead of Goldman Sachs' forecast of reaching this price by 2026 [3][5] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to global instability and a shift in investment strategies, with central banks increasingly purchasing gold instead of U.S. Treasury bonds [5][7] - Gold is recommended as a stable asset in investment portfolios, with a suggested allocation of 40% to mitigate risks, emphasizing a long-term investment approach rather than chasing short-term gains [7][9] Group 2: Growth Assets - Metal sectors, including copper and rare metals, have shown strong performance this year, benefiting from the global industrial recovery and the expansion of the renewable energy sector [9] - The technology sector is experiencing overcrowding, making it difficult for further growth in the short term, suggesting a potential reallocation of investments from tech to metal sectors where valuations remain reasonable [9][11] Group 3: U.S. Stock Market and Cryptocurrency - The U.S. stock market, particularly the S&P index, is showing signs of bubble formation after surpassing 6800 points, indicating a need for caution among investors [11] - The cryptocurrency market has seen significant activity, with Bitcoin reaching historical highs, but it remains highly volatile, necessitating careful risk management and diversification in investment strategies [13]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhengping Road and Bridge Construction Co., Ltd. (*ST Zhengping*), has announced a stock trading risk warning and will suspend trading for up to five days due to a significant stock price increase of 101.86% from September 1 to September 30, 2025, which deviates sharply from the Shanghai Composite Index and the construction industry [2] Company Overview - Zhengping was established on March 18, 1996, with a registered capital of 699.62337 million RMB, and is headquartered in Xining, Qinghai Province [3][4] - The company specializes in infrastructure construction, cultural tourism, and non-ferrous metal mining [4] - The current chairman is Tian Shisheng, and the company has 955 employees [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 and Q2 2025 was 1.362 billion RMB and 344 million RMB, reflecting year-on-year declines of 28.53% and 37.77% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same periods was -484 million RMB and -88.12 million RMB, with year-on-year changes of 8.97% and -12.40% respectively [4] - The company's asset-liability ratios were 90.92%, 90.60%, and 92.22% for the respective periods [4] Regulatory Issues - The company faces delisting risks due to an audit report for the 2024 annual report that could not express an opinion, and it has been placed under delisting risk warning [2] - On March 29, 2024, the company received an administrative penalty from the Qinghai Securities Regulatory Bureau, which included a fine of 1.5 million RMB [3] Risk Factors - The company has significant operational risks, including insufficient mineral resource extraction capacity and unresolved non-operating fund occupation [2] - The company has a total of 497 internal risk alerts and 821 external risk alerts, indicating a high level of risk exposure [4]

Core Viewpoint - *ST Zhengping's stock has experienced a significant increase of 101.86% from September 1 to September 30, 2025, leading to a suspension for investigation due to abnormal trading behavior and a serious deviation from its fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Trading Suspension - The stock of *ST Zhengping has seen a cumulative increase of 101.86% over the month of September 2025, with 15 days of trading halts and 4 instances of abnormal fluctuations [1]. - The company’s stock price has diverged significantly from the Shanghai Composite Index and the construction industry during the same period [1]. - The stock will be suspended from trading starting October 9, 2025, for a maximum of 5 trading days to investigate the trading situation [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, *ST Zhengping reported an operating revenue of 1.362 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -484 million yuan [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating revenue of 344 million yuan with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -88 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Listing Risks - *ST Zhengping faces the risk of delisting due to an audit report for 2024 that was unable to express an opinion, leading to a risk warning on its stock [2]. - The company has received negative opinions on its internal controls and has significant uncertainties regarding its ability to continue as a going concern [2]. - If the issues highlighted in the non-standard audit opinions are not resolved in 2025, the stock may be delisted [2]. Group 4: Mining Operations and Resource Development - The company’s subsidiary, Geermu Shengguang Mining Development Co., has obtained a mining license but lacks sufficient mining capacity and requires significant investment for future operations [2]. - There are major uncertainties regarding the progress and profitability of mineral resource development due to constraints in funding, market conditions, and operational capabilities [2]. Group 5: Non-operational Fund Occupation - In 2024, *ST Zhengping's subsidiary Guizhou Water Conservancy Industrial Co. faced non-operational fund occupation issues, with 13.2092 million yuan occupied by a minority shareholder [3]. - As of July 2025, 9 million yuan of the occupied funds were returned, leaving a balance of 4.2092 million yuan still occupied [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Opened higher in the morning and fluctuated throughout the day with little change in open interest. After Freeport's copper mine production cut announcement on September 24, copper prices rose with increasing positions and market attention. Downstream industries showed low acceptance of the sharp price increase, and domestic pre - holiday stockpiling ended, leading to a weaker spot premium, which suppressed copper prices. With the upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays in China, overseas market volatility risks should be noted [4]. - **沪铝**: Traded strongly with a slight decline in open interest. Affected by the sharp rise in copper prices last week, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded but with weak momentum. Before the domestic holiday, there were signs of inventory reduction in electrolytic aluminum, providing support. With a loose macro - environment and an improved supply - demand balance in the peak season, aluminum prices are expected to continue to stabilize and rise [5]. - **沪镍**: Traded in a range with a decline in open interest. The sector effect driven by copper prices faded, and nickel prices dropped back to the level at the beginning of last week. The long - term oversupply of nickel elements continued to suppress nickel prices, but in the short term, the slowdown in port nickel ore inventory accumulation and the reduction of SHFE nickel inventory provided support. With the overall decline of non - ferrous metals in the short term, technical support at the late - September low should be monitored [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On September 28, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)". The plan aims to promote project construction in an orderly manner, avoid low - level redundant construction, and improve investment efficiency. It also emphasizes strengthening resource exploration and utilization, including implementing a new round of ore - finding breakthrough strategies, improving resource recovery and utilization rates, and promoting the comprehensive utilization of recycled resources [8][9]. - **Nickel**: Reuters analysis pointed out a serious disconnect in the key minerals market. Despite the expected surge in long - term demand for energy transition, the current situation is one of oversupply and weak prices. New capacity investments, especially in Indonesia, have led to a significant oversupply of nickel. As of September 29, the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price was 120,700 - 123,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report presents charts on copper basis, monthly spreads, domestic and overseas exchange inventories, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spreads, domestic social inventory, overseas exchange inventory, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][37][40].

Core Insights - The recent policy from eight departments aims to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on resource exploration and recycling [1][3] - Despite the positive outlook from the policy, market reactions have been negative, with declines in ETFs and key metals like copper and aluminum [1][3] Policy Details - The policy emphasizes two main areas: resource exploration and technological advancements [3] - It targets essential metals such as copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel, which are crucial for manufacturing and the new energy sector [3] - Significant discoveries include a billion-ton copper reserve in Tibet and Asia's largest lithium mine in Sichuan, enhancing supply chain security [3] - There is a focus on improving recovery rates for low-grade ores and recycling waste materials, with plans for data platforms to enhance resource utilization efficiency [3] Market Reactions - Short-term market sentiment is sensitive, influenced by concerns over demand and external factors like Federal Reserve policies, leading to market adjustments [3] - Long-term prospects remain solid due to the core principles of resource scarcity and policy support, indicating a stable development direction for the industry over the next two to three years [3] Investment Opportunities - Companies with resource reserves are likely to benefit from increased mining rights opportunities, especially those with established positions in key domestic mining areas [4] - Firms specializing in technology for low-grade ore extraction and recycling will gain significant leverage in the market [4] - Sectors related to new energy, particularly lithium, nickel, and cobalt, are expected to see sustained demand supported by policy measures ensuring resource availability [4]

Group 1 - The core incident involves an accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine, specifically in the PB1C production block, where approximately 800,000 tons of wet material surged into the mine, leading to operational suspension and infrastructure damage [1] - As of September 24, the accident resulted in 2 confirmed deaths and 5 missing persons, with ongoing search and recovery efforts, as well as an investigation into the incident [1] - According to Huatai Securities, since 2025, there has been a frequency of disturbances in copper mines, with most disturbances being short-term and having limited supply impact; however, the Grasberg mine's supply reduction is expected to significantly affect the market [1] Group 2 - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been fluctuating, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation in the market [1] - The Grasberg mine is projected to reduce supply by 200,000 tons by Q4 2025, which may assist in depleting electrolytic copper inventories [1] - For 2026, it is estimated that the combined supply reduction from Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines could reach 400,000 tons, potentially offsetting all global copper mine increases, leading to a significant improvement in the copper supply-demand balance [1] Group 3 - The market anticipates that the expansion of AI-related infrastructure will drive copper demand, alongside frequent disturbances in copper mines and a globally loose fiscal and monetary environment [1] - The price of gold is expected to have a certain drag effect on copper prices, suggesting a potential upward trend in copper prices [1]