Economic Performance - Jiangsu's GDP reached 6.7 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7%, maintaining the highest economic increment in the country [1] - The province's foreign trade import and export totaled 2.81 trillion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, with actual foreign investment at 11.54 billion USD, both ranking first in the nation [1] Reform and Support for Private Economy - Jiangsu has established a dedicated bureau for private economic development, implementing 20 policies to support private enterprises, contributing over 64% to economic growth [2] - The province's industrial output value from private enterprises increased by 8.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year [2] Investment and Financing - From January to July, private capital in the water, electricity, gas, and heat sectors increased by 36.8% on top of an 84.9% rise last year [3] - The provincial financing coordination mechanism has provided over 2 trillion yuan in loans to support nearly 10 million small and micro enterprises [3] Innovation and Financial Mechanisms - Suzhou has introduced a "four-loan linkage" mechanism, issuing loans totaling 890.61 billion yuan from October last year to August this year [4] - The digital RMB transaction volume in Suzhou exceeded 9 trillion yuan, accounting for 70% of the national total [4] Open Economy and International Cooperation - Jiangsu is enhancing its high-level openness, combining "bringing in" and "going out" strategies to create a dual open hub [5] - The province has launched over 450 institutional innovation achievements through its free trade zone, with recent approval for a comprehensive development plan for the biopharmaceutical industry [5][6] Urban-Rural Integration and Infrastructure Development - Jiangsu is advancing urban-rural integration, with 460,100 agricultural transfer populations receiving housing support through public rental and guaranteed rental housing [8] - The province is implementing a comprehensive management system for urban infrastructure, enhancing safety and intelligence in urban management [9]

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, emphasizing its integration into six key areas: scientific technology, industrial development, consumption enhancement, public welfare, governance capabilities, and global cooperation, with specific goals set for 2027, 2030, and 2035 [1][10]. Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The initiative aims to achieve widespread integration of AI in six areas, including scientific technology, industrial development, consumption enhancement, public welfare, governance capabilities, and global cooperation [3][4]. - The document highlights the importance of AI in accelerating scientific discovery and creating new job opportunities while enhancing traditional roles [3][4]. - The initiative emphasizes the need for intelligent transformation across all sectors, including agriculture, industry, and services, to foster new business models and enhance productivity [7][8]. Group 2: Goals and Phases - By 2027, the goal is to achieve over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals and applications, with significant growth in the core industries of the intelligent economy [10][12]. - By 2030, the aim is for AI to fully empower high-quality development, with over 90% penetration of intelligent applications, establishing AI as a crucial growth driver for the economy [10][12]. - By 2035, the vision is for China to enter a new stage of intelligent economy and society, providing strong support for the realization of socialist modernization [10][12]. Group 3: Implementation Strategy - The document outlines a systematic approach to implementing AI across various sectors, focusing on creating a collaborative ecosystem that includes researchers, businesses, consumers, and government entities [4][6]. - It emphasizes the need for a robust foundational support system, including advancements in models, data supply, computing power, and regulatory frameworks [9][12]. - The initiative aims to break down data silos and lower barriers for small and medium enterprises to adopt AI technologies, fostering a positive cycle of innovation and application [6][12].

扩大内需和新质生产力的整体性跃升有望成为"十五五"的主线，彼此相互牵引推动经 济实现高质量发展。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人张馨月 一、"十五五"时期的宏观环境 经济增长速度是五年规划的首要阶段性目标。与以往的五年规划不同，"十四五"规划并未提出明确的经济增长目标，而是要求"保持在合理区间、各年度 视情提出"，主要原因是当时的经济增长面临公共卫生事件带来的高度不确定性。 对于"十五五"规划而言，设定明确的年均经济增长目标是必要的、有条件的。 一方面，这有助于向市场释放积极信号，稳定社会预期。另一方面，根据 已有文献的预测，2026-2030年我国经济潜在经济增长率仍有5.1%左右。其中，国家信息中心预测"十五五"和"十六五"时期我国潜在经济增速分别为 5.01%和4.50%。 考虑到实际经济增速通常略低于潜在经济增长水平， 预计乐观情形下，"十五五"时期将年均增长指标设定为"5%左右" ，为2035年目标的实现打下坚 实基础。 从外部环境看，"十五五"时期大国竞争、大国博弈可能会进一步加剧。 2021年以来，全球地缘政治风险指数中枢较"十二五"和"十三五"时期出现抬 升，其波动明显加剧。与"十四五"时期相比， ...

Group 1 - The Thai government is preparing a series of measures to mitigate the impact of US tariffs and enhance national competitiveness [1] - Proposed measures include stimulus initiatives, accelerated public investment budget disbursement for infrastructure projects, and tax reduction policies to boost domestic consumption [1] - The government plans to allocate a budget fund of 100 billion Thai Baht to support various projects [1] Group 2 - Tax measures will be implemented to help businesses reduce costs and increase liquidity, such as speeding up export tax refunds and extending tax payment deadlines for affected companies [1] - Regulatory reforms are planned, including modifications to Thai laws regarding import tariffs on US goods and adjustments to import quotas and health standards [1] - Structural regulatory reforms will aim to improve the investment environment by removing unnecessary licenses, updating labor and investment laws, and expanding digital systems [1]

数据还显示，构成商业景气指数的制造业、服务业、建筑业和贸易4个主要领域的当前表现指标环比均 有所下降。 慕尼黑经济研究所所长克莱门斯·菲斯特表示，数据反映出德国经济复苏依然乏力，尽管企业对未来展 望相对乐观，但对当前业务状况评价趋于消极。 新华财经柏林8月25日电（记者车云龙张毅荣）德国慕尼黑经济研究所25日公布的数据显示，因企业对 未来数月前景预期改善，经季节调整后，德国8月商业景气指数从上月的88.6点升至89点，连续第八个 月改善。 荷兰国际集团宏观研究主管卡斯滕·布热斯基认为，企业信心改善可能与德国近期公布的财政刺激措施 有关。考虑到二季度德国国内生产总值环比下降0.3%，以及美国关税政策持续冲击出口，德国经济能 否保持动力尚不明朗。 慕尼黑经济研究所商业景气指数被视为德国经济发展的风向标，对观察德国经济形势具有重要参考价 值。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

谁能想到，俄乌战争打到现在，看起来饱受创伤的欧洲，居然也因祸得福，偷偷地赚取了一 大笔的乌克兰红利。 最近，一年一度的美国杰克逊霍尔央行年会上，欧洲央行行长拉加德的一席话，听得让人心惊肉跳。 她在讲话中提到：疫情后外国出生工人比例的大幅增加，帮助欧洲降低了通胀率，而经济增长速度却没 有大幅放缓。 她甚至举例说：没有这些外国工人，德国的GDP就得比2019年还要低6%，西班牙的经济复苏也难以想 象。 她可能只是基于经济现状进行的具体而专业的分析，但却不小心暴露出一个残酷的现实： 欧洲这几年享受了大把的乌克兰人口红利，来自乌克兰的廉价工人有效地帮助欧洲抵御了疫情后的经济 疲软。 为什么说这些外国工人主要是乌克兰人呢？ 因为这几年，欧洲主要涌进去的外国工人就是乌克兰人。 庞大的欧洲人口流动。 2022年2月，俄乌冲突爆发，数百万乌克兰人迅速向西逃到了中西欧国家。 比如，要乌克兰人学习本国语言、学习工作技能，希望他们自食其力，依靠自己养活自己。 说白了，欧洲人盯上了乌克兰人的劳动价值。 他们先是沿着边境线跑到了波兰、匈牙利等国，再不断向西，到了西欧、西南欧、北欧等地。 战争初期，支持乌克兰成为欧洲最大的政治正确，各国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the challenges and opportunities for China's economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development and the need to address demand insufficiency [5][6][9] - The external environment is characterized by intensified trade friction with the U.S., which has escalated into a comprehensive confrontation affecting China's external demand and supply chains [4][6] - Internally, China faces structural issues such as aging population and insufficient demand, necessitating reforms in consumption and investment structures to stimulate economic growth [6][8] Group 2 - The economic growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" is projected to be in the range of 4.5% to 5%, with a focus on balancing nominal and actual growth rates [6][10] - Key challenges include ongoing trade tensions, demographic shifts leading to labor shortages, and local government debt issues that require systemic reforms [6][11] - Opportunities arise from strengthening non-U.S. trade alliances, leveraging the potential of a unified domestic market, and fostering human capital and technological innovation [7][9] Group 3 - The planning and reform strategies for the "14th Five-Year Plan" should focus on balancing supply and demand, optimizing investment and consumption, and enhancing the relationship between manufacturing and service sectors [8][9] - Macro-control systems need to transition to prioritize nominal growth and adjust fiscal and monetary policies accordingly [10][13] - Structural reforms should aim to improve income distribution, accelerate urbanization, and enhance the fiscal system to support consumption and economic balance [11][12][13] Group 4 - The development of high-quality services in sectors such as healthcare, tourism, and elder care is essential to meet the growing demand for quality services [16] - Encouraging private sector participation and reducing market entry barriers will be crucial for service industry growth [16] - Strengthening regulatory frameworks to protect consumer rights and promote new service consumption models will enhance market stability and growth [16]

本周全球主要大类资产涨跌互现。深证成指（+4.57%）涨幅最大，上证 指数（+3.49%），CBOT豆油（+2.95%），IPE布油（+2.51%）涨幅居前；新西 兰元兑人民币（-1.92%）跌幅最大，韩国综指（-1.76%），日经225（- 1.72%），澳元兑人民币（-1.19%）跌幅居前。 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 海外市场周观察（0818-0824） 鲍威尔在全球央行年会定调宽松预期 本周美股整体先抑后扬，周五美股受鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会转鸽信号 驱动大幅走高。周初市场因对经济数据和美联储政策的不确定性而表现反 复，周五鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议转鸽，其表示尽管通胀仍受关注，但就业 市场风险上升可能使美联储在9月降息，会后市场几乎完全定价9月降息，并 且年内将降息两次，美债收益率与美元指数回落，美股大幅反弹，道指攀升 至年内新高。下周需重点关注7月核心PCE通胀数据，若低于预期，美股降息 交易或将延续。 经济数据方面：（1）美国至8月16日当周初请失业金人数为23.5万人， 略高于前值和预测值；（2）美国8月标普全球制造业PMI初值为53.3，高于 前值49.8和预测值49. ...

Domestic Macro Policy - New policy financial tools are set to be implemented, focusing on promoting the healthy development of the private economy and enhancing consumption potential[3] - The State Council emphasizes the need for comprehensive measures to release domestic demand potential, including fiscal and financial support[4] - The implementation of a loan interest subsidy policy for service industry operators has been announced, with a maximum loan subsidy of 1 million yuan per entity[12] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The central bank's second-quarter monetary policy report indicates a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for rate cuts[14] - Personal consumption loans will enjoy fiscal interest subsidies starting September 1, 2025, with a subsidy rate of 1% per year, covering loans under 50,000 yuan and significant purchases[16] - The Ministry of Finance has announced that childcare subsidies will be exempt from personal income tax starting January 1, 2025[16] Trade Relations - The U.S. and China have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, indicating a temporary easing of trade tensions[19] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has called for a new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting a potential reduction of 150 to 175 basis points from current levels[23] International Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with two rate cuts anticipated for the year[21] - The risk balance in the U.S. economy is shifting, with increasing downward risks to employment, prompting discussions on adjusting policy stances[21] Market Trends - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.27% over the past week, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices saw declines of 0.58% and 0.36%, respectively[24] - Gold prices rose by 1.12% in the same period, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards safe-haven assets[25]

Core Viewpoint - The "Skills Illuminate the Future" initiative in Shaanxi aims to enhance vocational skills training from 2025 to 2027, focusing on employment and talent development in key industries [1][2] Group 1: Vocational Skills Training - Shaanxi plans to conduct large-scale vocational skills training, targeting 1 million subsidized training sessions during the initiative [1] - The initiative will emphasize training in high-demand sectors such as elderly care, advanced manufacturing, and modern services [1] Group 2: Targeted Talent Development - Each year, Shaanxi aims to train over 20,000 skilled workers in the elderly care sector, implementing a tiered subsidy policy to promote training and employment synergy [1] - The initiative will also focus on training approximately 3,000 high-skilled workers annually in manufacturing, digital skills, and service sectors [1] Group 3: Leadership and High-Skill Talent - Shaanxi plans to cultivate around 300 leading talents in advanced manufacturing and modern services, which is expected to drive the training of approximately 150,000 high-skilled workers [1] - The initiative includes a project-based training approach for industries facing significant labor shortages [1] Group 4: Policy Support for Enterprises - The government supports enterprises in establishing training centers and provides subsidies for technician training [2] - Policies will be coordinated to enhance employment opportunities and provide skill enhancement subsidies for eligible individuals [2]