| 公司官方微信 | | --- | | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | 1 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（143）期 发布日期：2025-08-07 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/7 | 2025/8/6 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,223.50 | 1,221.00 | 2.50 | 0.205 | | | 焦炭 | 1,647.50 | 1,644.50 | 3.0 | 0.182 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,430.00 | 15.495.00 | -65.0 | -0.419 | | | 20号胶 | 12,280.00 | 12,320.00 | -40.0 | -0.325 | | | 塑料 | 7,305.00 | 7,321.00 | -16.0 | -0.219 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,072.00 | 7,078.00 | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from production growth, oscillating around the annual line of 4,250 ringgit. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 4,250 ringgit for upward movement; otherwise, it may fall below the annual - line support and decline to 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in high - level consolidation, influenced by the adjustment of Malaysian palm oil. They are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 9,000 yuan, as well as the gains and losses near the 20 - day moving average and whether Malaysian palm oil can stand above 4,250 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Factory sales have improved recently as some market participants are bullish. Although the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing, terminal demand is expected to improve due to the start of universities and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, so the inventory may decrease in the second half of the month. Soybean oil has a price advantage over palm oil and rapeseed oil, which supports the basis quote, and the basis quote is bullish in the long - term [4]. Bean Meal - Argentina's bean meal purchases have limited impact on the market. Due to the tight supply expected in the fourth quarter, oil mills are accelerating South American purchases, pushing up the premiums in Brazil and Argentina. The price of the Lianbo 09 contract will end in oscillation, while the upward momentum of the Lianbo 01 contract is stable, with attention on the resistance at 3,100 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton in the short term [15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - P 1 - 5 is 212 yuan/ton, up 18; Y - P 01 is - 724 yuan/ton, down 106; other spreads are also presented in the table [5]. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8,986 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4,249 ringgit/ton, down 0.96%; other prices and spreads are also provided [6]. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 8,380 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 53.38 cents/pound, down 1.18%; other prices and spreads are also given [11]. Oilseeds Futures Prices - Bean meal 01 closes at 3,072, up 7 (0.23%); bean meal 05 closes at 2,762, up 11 (0.4%); other futures prices are also listed [16]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05 is 310, down 4; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 9; other spreads are also presented [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that oils will lack driving factors and maintain range - bound oscillations. For protein meals, it is advisable to buy on dips. [8][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy 3.1.1 Oils Main Viewpoints - **Core Logic**: The good rate of US soybeans remains high. In August, weather has a significant impact. Rainfall in the main US soybean - producing areas in the next 15 days is slightly lower than normal, and soybeans are expected to grow normally. Brazil's soybean export peak is approaching, and exports are expected to decrease. US tariff policies suppress soybean exports. Argentina will lower soybean export tariffs, squeezing US soybean demand. CBOT soybeans are weak but with limited downside. Palm oil is in the seasonal production increase period, with increased production and weak exports in Malaysia in July, indicating significant inventory accumulation. Indonesia's palm oil production recovery is unfulfilled, and inventory is low. Domestic palm oil is slowly accumulating inventory, and future purchases are few. Palm oil is affected by crude oil. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Rapeseed inventory is falling, and imports are expected to increase slightly in August. [8] - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The import cost of palm oil (August shipment) is 9,340 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 506 yuan/ton and an August shipment spot - market profit of - 134 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, rapeseed is 195,000 tons, and palm oil is 180,000 tons. [8] - **Demand**: In July, the total domestic sales of bulk soybean oil from key oil mills were 463,200 tons, a 20.09% increase from the previous month. Palm oil sales were 10,376 tons, a 62.20% decrease from June. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil from coastal oil mills was 123,400 tons, a decrease of 15,900 tons from the previous month. [8] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key regions nationwide was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week and a 17.10% increase year - on - year. [8] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to conduct short - term operations within the oscillation range for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [8] 3.1.2 Protein Meals Main Viewpoints - **Core Logic**: Similar to oils, US soybeans are in a good growth situation, and Brazilian and US soybeans face export challenges. In August, soybean arrivals will be large, oil mill operating rates will remain high, and soybean meal will accumulate inventory. Pig farming is promoting the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing future demand. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Recent rapeseed arrivals are few, and coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory is low, but imported rapeseed meal inventory is high. Rapeseed imports are expected to increase slightly in August, and the operating rate may recover. [11] - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [11] - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, and rapeseed is 195,000 tons. [11] - **Demand**: In July, the total sales of soybean meal were 4.0215 million tons, a decrease of 954,800 tons from the previous month, a 19.19% decrease; a year - on - year increase of 1.0297 million tons, a 34.42% increase. From Week 27 to Week 31, the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal from coastal oil mills was 137,900 tons, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal (Nantong) was 119,500 tons. [11] - **Inventory**: In Week 30, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0431 million tons, a 4.48% increase from the previous week and a 22.50% decrease year - on - year. It is expected that soybean meal will gradually accumulate inventory in August. In July, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were stable at around 8 days. In Week 30, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 19,000 tons, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was 663,600 tons. [11] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to buy on dips for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [11] 3.2 2025 July Oils and Meals Market Review 3.2.1 Oils Market Review - **Market Trend**: In July, the oils sector oscillated strongly. The palm oil led the increase due to factors such as Malaysia's reverse - seasonal production decrease in June, strong exports and low inventory in Indonesia, and biodiesel news. The CBOT soybeans were weak, but US biodiesel news boosted US soybean oil. The rapeseed futures price oscillated, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory fell from a high level. The oils sector rose 3.29%, the palm oil main contract rose 6.84%, the soybean oil main contract rose 2.61%, and the rapeseed oil main contract rose 1.01%. [15] - **Spot Price**: In July, the spot prices of the three major oils oscillated strongly, with palm oil having the largest increase. On July 31, 2025, the mainstream price of rapeseed oil was 9,632 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton monthly; the average price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,372 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton monthly; the national average price of 24 - degree palm oil was 8,993 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton monthly. [24] 3.2.2 Protein Meals Market Review - **Market Trend**: In July, soybean meal and rapeseed meal first rose and then fell. It was expected that rapeseed imports would be few from July to August, and the operating rate of oil mills would be low. Aquaculture was in the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal was strong. The inventory of coastal oil mill rapeseed meal was low, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory fell from a high level. Rapeseed meal was strong. In late July, CBOT soybeans continued to decline, and the demand for soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased due to pig farming regulation. [28] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal increased significantly due to high demand and low inventory. The spot price of soybean meal oscillated strongly under the drive of rapeseed meal, with an average price of 2,945 yuan/ton on July 31, 2025, up 43 yuan/ton monthly; the average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton monthly. [31] 3.3 Oils and Oilseeds Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 International Situation - **US Soybeans**: The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is normal. The good rate is high, with a flowering rate of 76%, a pod - setting rate of 41%, and a good rate of 70% as of July 27. The soybean crushing volume in June decreased month - on - month but was at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the crushing profit recovered from a low level. [36][40][44] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: In July, Brazil's soybean export volume was 12.06 million tons, a 10.53% decrease from the previous month and a 25.63% increase year - on - year. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans continued to rise. [47] - **Argentine Soybeans**: In June, Argentina's soybean export volume was 1 million tons, a 18.10% decrease from the previous month and a 29.11% decrease year - on - year. Argentina will lower the soybean export tariff from 33% to 26%. [50] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons due to a surge in exports. [55] - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.6923 million tons, a 4.48% decrease from the previous month and a 4.77% increase year - on - year. In July, the production increased 7.07% month - on - month, exports were weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. [60][64] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The weather in the main Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is normal. As of July 28, the growth of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was generally in good condition, and the good rate of rapeseed in Alberta was 60.3%. As of July 27, the rapeseed export volume decreased 72.8% from the previous week to 55,100 tons. In June, the rapeseed crushing volume increased 3% from the previous month. [67][71][76] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: It is expected that 10.69 million tons of soybeans will arrive in August. As of the 30th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 645,590 tons, up 0.52% from the previous week. In July, the soybean import cost oscillated, and the crushing profit increased slightly. In July, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 10.1292 million tons, and it is estimated to be 10.15 million tons in August. [81][85][94] - **Palm Oil**: The import cost of palm oil increased in July. The import profit improved. It is estimated that the palm oil import volume in August will be 180,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from July. [98][102][106] - **Rapeseed**: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed oscillated in July. The crushing profit of imported rapeseed increased in terms of spot profit and decreased in terms of spot - market profit. It is estimated that the rapeseed arrival volume in August will be 195,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons from July. In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills increased. [111][114][123] - **Inventory and Sales of Oils**: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week. The inventory trends of the three major oils diverged, with soybean oil and palm oil accumulating inventory and rapeseed oil inventory falling from a high level. In July, the sales of soybean oil increased, while the sales of rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased. [127][133][136] - **Inventory and Sales of Protein Meals**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased rapidly. In July, the sales of soybean meal decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills recovered from a low level, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was still high. The consumption of rapeseed meal increased due to aquaculture demand. [140][144][156]

Group 1: Market Performance - Palm oil futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 9064 yuan/ton, up nearly 3%, surpassing the 9000 yuan/ton mark [1] - However, the night session saw a decline, bringing prices back below 9000 yuan/ton [1] - The strong performance was attributed to rising production costs and the impact of typhoon weather on import arrivals [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Expectations for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue increasing in July, projected to reach 2.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of over 10% [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports showed growth in May and June, with biodiesel consumption exceeding 1 million tons per month since February [2] - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy by 2026 is expected to increase palm oil consumption by nearly 3 million tons [2] Group 3: Tariff Changes and Import Trends - The U.S. reduced the tariff rate on Malaysian palm oil from 25% to 19%, while the EU lowered tariffs by 20-40% [3] - India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% in July to 858,000 tons due to previous price increases, but there remains a demand for stocking ahead of the Diwali festival [3] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic palm oil commercial inventory as of August 1 was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons (5.41%) month-on-month [3] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil rose to 9291.27 yuan/ton, ending a three-day decline [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The palm oil market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to the upcoming MPOB report [4][5] - The 2509 contract may face downward pressure due to ample domestic inventory and supply, while the 2601 contract is anticipated to maintain a strong upward trend driven by seasonal demand and biodiesel policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating between 8806.00 and 9018.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.18% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for palm oil opened at 8808.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 9018.00 CNY/ton during the trading session [1] - The market is showing a strong performance with a general upward trend in palm oil prices [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures indicates that the macroeconomic environment is weakening, and with OPEC+ agreeing to a significant production increase in September, the palm oil market may face downward pressure [1] - Ningzheng Futures notes that typhoon weather has delayed palm oil shipments to East China, leading to a slight decrease in domestic commercial inventory and a minor recovery in the soybean-palm oil price spread [1] - Zhonghui Futures highlights that policies in Indonesia and Malaysia favor palm oil consumption, with buying demand from China and India, suggesting a bullish outlook for the market [1]

广东作为国内重要的油脂油料市场，油脂品种丰富、市场规模大，同时，广东也是国内主要的饲料及水 产养殖产地，因此形成了具有集群效应的油脂油料产业链。不过，在供应压力下，油脂行业产能利用率 逐年下降，管理压榨利润风险对于油脂油料企业来说至关重要。面对全球供应链重塑与市场波动加剧的 双重挑战，一场关乎"油瓶子"安全的产业升级正在这里展开。 产能持续扩张行业产能利用率下行 据了解，广东地区形成粮油加工产业集群，主要依托三大地域优势。"首先，广东作为国内第二大饲料 原料消费市场，饲料年产量持续位居全国前列，其中水产饲料产量更居全国首位，这使得广东的菜粕等 原料的核心需求量成为全国之最；其次，区域内物流体系高度发达，港口码头的中转能力和运输效率显 著优于其他地区，为原料进口及成品流通提供了关键支撑；最后，产业链下游龙头企业如海大集团、温 氏股份等均在广东集中布局，形成了紧密协同的产业生态。"东莞市富之源饲料蛋白开发有限公司（下 称东莞富之源）总经理范振宇告诉期货日报记者，基于庞大的市场容量、高效的物流基础设施以及完善 的产业链配套，广东地区已成为粮油压榨行业规模化发展的战略要地。 当前，国产菜籽的崛起正悄然改变产业格局。近 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower due to inventory growth concerns, with short - term pressure to break below 4,200 ringgit and potentially test 4,000 ringgit support. After a brief shock or digestion of the MPOB report, it may continue to decline, possibly briefly breaking below 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure at high levels and may test the 8,800 - yuan support. If it breaks below, it may continue to decline and could potentially fall to around 8,500 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - Due to high soybean arrivals, factory operating rates are above 60%, leading to increased soybean oil production and inventory in most regions. However, historical data suggests inventory will soon reach a peak and then decline as demand increases, causing spot basis quotes to rise after narrow - range fluctuations [4]. Bean Meal - The stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations persists. China's fourth - quarter soybean purchases are locked in South America, with high Brazilian and rising Argentine premiums supporting costs. The short - term continuous bean meal 09 contract will test the 3,040 - 3,050 yuan resistance. Spot prices are rising, and the basis is narrowing. As of the end of Week 31, 2025, domestic bean meal inventory decreased to 1.053 million tons, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [17]. Group 2: Oil Price and Spread Information Oil Price - Palm oil: The 01 contract is at 8,832 yuan/ton (-1.1%), the 05 contract is at 8,638 yuan/ton (-1.21%), the 09 contract is at 8,838 yuan/ton (-0.81%), and BMD palm oil is at 4,172 ringgit/ton (-1.72%) [7]. - Soybean oil: The 01 contract is at 8,214 yuan/ton (0.59%), the 05 contract is at 7,848 yuan/ton (0.29%), the 09 contract is at 8,250 yuan/ton (0.47%), and CBOT soybean oil is at 53.9 cents/pound (-1.55%) [13]. Spread - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 186 yuan/ton (+4), P 5 - 9 is - 166 yuan/ton (-2), P 9 - 1 is - 20 yuan/ton (-2) [5]. - Soybean oil - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 704 yuan/ton (+56), Y - P 05 is - 896 yuan/ton (+32), Y - P 09 is - 636 yuan/ton (+72) [5]. Group 3: Oilseed Futures Price and Spread Information Futures Price - Bean meal: The 01 contract is at 3,055 (+18, 0.59%), the 05 contract is at 2,746 (+8, 0.29%), the 09 contract is at 3,024 (+14, 0.47%) [18]. - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract is at 2,432 (+23, 0.95%), the 05 contract is at 2,380 (+5, 0.21%), the 09 contract is at 2,678 (+3, 0.11%) [18]. Spread - Bean meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 299 (unchanged), M05 - 09 is - 272 (unchanged), M09 - 01 is - 27 (unchanged) [19][21]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 is 34 (unchanged), RM05 - 09 is - 300 (unchanged), RM09 - 01 is 266 (unchanged) [19][21].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating between 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit, facing potential downward pressure due to increased production and decreased exports. A break below 4,200 ringgit may open a new downward space towards 4,000 ringgit. Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are strongly oscillating at high levels between 8,800 - 8,900 yuan. Affected by the potential decline of Malaysian palm oil and rising domestic port inventories, there is downward pressure. Support levels are at around 8,600 and 8,500 yuan. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, currently in a phased adjustment [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: Market demand has improved recently. Based on export news, the market anticipates a price increase, leading some traders to show purchasing interest. Factory sales exceeded 30,000 tons yesterday. Some regions have relatively low inventory pressure with rising basis quotes, while regions like Guangxi still face inventory issues affecting basis quotes. In the short - term, basis quotes will fluctuate slightly and may rise as domestic demand increases [3]. - **Bean Meal**: China is accelerating the purchase of South American soybeans to ensure Q4 supply. Brazilian premiums are rising, supporting import costs. Near delivery, institutions are accelerating position transfers, with the short - term 09 contract oscillating around 3,000 yuan. Spot prices at oil mills have increased by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. In August, due to Sino - US tariff concerns, terminal point - pricing risk - aversion has increased, improving trading volume. Mid - August may see a peak in oil mill bean meal inventories, and the market is brewing bullish sentiment, with many looking to buy far - month contracts at low prices [16]. 2. Price and Spread Information Oils - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 8,968 yuan/ton with a 0.4% increase; 05 is at 8,772 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase; 09 is at 8,970 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase. BMD palm oil主力 is at 4,249 ringgit/ton with a 0.45% increase. The Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil price is 8,930 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The Guangzhou 24 - degree basis is 40 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,226 yuan/ton with a 0.03% increase; 05 is at 7,848 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase; 09 is at 8,274 yuan/ton with a 0.33% increase. CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 54.75 cents/pound, down 2.42%. Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,240 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis is 18 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [12]. - **Oil Spreads**: Various oil spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc. are provided, showing different price changes [4]. Oilseeds - **Bean Meal**: Bean meal 01 is at 3,037 with a 0.03% increase; 05 is at 2,738 with a 0.11% increase; 09 is at 3,010 with a 0.33% increase. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal 01 is at 2,409, down 0.08%; 05 is at 2,375 with a 0.04% increase; 09 is at 2,675, down 0.89%. - **Spreads**: Spreads like M01 - 05, RM01 - 05, etc. are presented with their respective price changes [17][18][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable for the vegetable oil market, which may support the prices of CBOT soybeans and U.S. soybean oil. Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The current situation of palm oil is that Malaysia has a high inventory while Indonesia has a decreasing inventory. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but the export data of Malaysian palm oil shows weak demand. The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Affected by the current situation of weak supply and demand, rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review In July, the trends of oils and fats were divergent. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range oscillation. The U.S. biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan boosted the prices of palm oil and international oils, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations put pressure on rapeseed oil prices [9]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits**: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed biofuel blending rules for 2026 - 2027 are favorable for the industrial demand of domestic oils. The demand for soybean oil in biofuels is increasing, and the future domestic crushing demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to grow. The export tax cuts in Argentina may stimulate soybean exports, and the high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans support the price of soybean oil. Although the soybean oil inventory is currently high, the seasonal inventory inflection point is approaching in August, which also supports the price [10][13][15]. - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand Pattern is Loose**: In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July was not ideal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of high inventory and high production in the third quarter. In Indonesia, the implementation of the B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [16][17][24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Continues the Oscillation Pattern**: The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, making ICE rapeseed prices strong. The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not ended, and the trend of reducing rapeseed imports and increasing rapeseed oil imports is expected to continue. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation [20][22][24]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The high - inventory and high - production pattern of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean import in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the cost of imported soybeans is increasing, so there is an upward space for soybean oil [2][3][12] - The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, and it lacks upward momentum [3][16][24] - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern due to the current situation of weak supply and demand [3][20][24] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In July, the trends of oils and fats were differentiated. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range shock [9] - The U.S. biodiesel policy is beneficial to the consumption of vegetable oils, and the increase in U.S. soybean oil drives up the international oil prices. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan boosts the palm oil price, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations puts pressure on the rapeseed oil price [9] 3.2. Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1. U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits - The U.S. biodiesel policy is beneficial to the industrial demand of domestic oils and fats. The demand for domestic soybean crushing in the U.S. is expected to increase, which supports the CBOT soybean and U.S. soybean oil prices [10][12] - Argentina's reduction of export withholding tax on soybeans and their by - products may stimulate exports. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued levy of tariffs on U.S. soybeans in China increase the cost of imported soybeans in China and support the soybean oil price [12] - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China decreased slightly compared with the previous week and the same period last year. With the arrival of August, the seasonal inventory inflection point is coming, which strongly supports the soybean oil price [15] 3.2.2. Loose Supply - Demand Pattern of Palm Oil - In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July were not ideal. It is expected that the pattern of high inventory and high production will continue in the third quarter, and the supply - demand pattern will become looser [16] - Indonesia's B40 plan is being implemented as scheduled, and the new industrial consumption demand of palm oil is expected to be strong, which supports the price. However, overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [17][23][24] 3.2.3. Rapeseed Oil Continues the Shock Pattern - The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, so the ICE rapeseed has been running strongly recently [18][20] - The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market [20] - The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not concluded, and the trend of reducing rapeseed import and increasing rapeseed oil import is expected to continue. The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal oil mills has increased slightly, but the de - stocking process is expected to continue, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern [22] 3.3. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the tight supply expectation of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the increase in import costs, there is an upward space for soybean oil [2][3][23] - The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, and it lacks upward momentum [3][16][24] - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern due to the current weak supply and demand situation [3][20][24]