油脂油料
Search documents
油脂油料产业日报-20251103
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 10:45
1. Report's Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures show an obvious sign of breaking downward, pressured by concerns of increased production and slowed exports. It is expected to seek support between 4,000 - 4,100 ringgit. The potential increase in end - month inventory may further dampen the market [3]. - Domestically, the Dalian palm oil futures are dragged down by the Malaysian market, with short - term pressure to decline to 8,500 yuan. It may follow the upward trend after the Malaysian palm oil stabilizes around 4,000 ringgit, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong pattern [3]. Soybean Oil - Domestically, the supply of soybean oil is abundant while demand is weak, and high soybean import costs support the oil mills. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil reached a low of 8,066 yuan today. It is supported at 8,000 yuan in the short term. Its trend depends on the movement of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil [4]. Bean Meal - The Dalian bean meal 01 contract fluctuates upward, influenced by import costs and the weak performance of the oil sector. It follows the movement of US soybeans, and there is a risk of profit - taking causing a price dip to test the 3,000 - yuan support. The overall upward trend remains. Spot prices are adjusted within the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [16]. 2. Price and Spread Information Palm Oil - Futures spreads: P 1 - 5 is - 50 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; P 5 - 9 is 202 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; P 9 - 1 is - 152 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [5]. - Spot and futures prices: BMD palm oil主力 is 4,097 ringgit/ton, down 2.61%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8,550 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [7]. Soybean Oil - Futures spreads: Y 1 - 5 is 170 yuan/ton, unchanged; Y 5 - 9 is 92 yuan/ton, unchanged; Y 9 - 1 is - 262 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Spot and futures prices: CBOT soybean oil主力 is 48.62 cents/pound, down 1.94%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8,270 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [13]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Futures prices: Bean meal 01 is 3,026 yuan, up 5 yuan (0.17%); Rapeseed meal 01 is 2,491 yuan, up 103 yuan (4.31%) [17]. - Spreads: M01 - 05 is 208 yuan, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 46 yuan, down 20 yuan [18].
国贸期货油脂周报(P&Y&OI)-20251103
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 07:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expectation that the supply of oils and fats in both the producing regions and the domestic market will be abundant, oils and fats, mainly palm oil and rapeseed oil, are expected to continue to weaken. It is recommended to short-term short, and exit when the price in the producing regions stabilizes or there is new positive driving force [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Palm oil is neutral to bearish, soybean oil is neutral to bearish, and rapeseed oil is bearish. Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil producing regions have high inventories, and the expected imports to China in the fourth quarter will increase. China is expected to import 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, but it is uncertain how much will enter commercial crushing. There are expectations of reconciliation between China and Canada, and the bumper harvest in producing regions such as Canada and Australia this year is marginally bearish [5]. - **Demand**: It is in a wait - and - see state. In the producing regions, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is being actively promoted, and B40 provides support, but the implementation time of B50 is far away and difficult to drive. Due to the US government shutdown, the biodiesel RVO originally scheduled to be finalized on October 31 has not been determined. The domestic peak season is lackluster, and the domestic demand for oils and fats in the fourth quarter is difficult to drive, but there is an expected increase in soybean oil exports [5]. - **Inventory**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is still at a high level. Rapeseed oil is continuously destocking due to raw material shortages. Palm oil has the expectation of restocking due to a large number of vessel purchases by traders. For soybean oil, it is necessary to pay attention to the destination of imported US soybeans (state reserve/commercial crushing) [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: It is in a wait - and - see state. The Sino - US trade agreement stipulates that China will repurchase US soybeans, which has a phased impact on CBOT soybeans and Brazilian premiums. Indonesia officially announced that B50 is in the road test phase and is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year, but some analysts believe there are still obstacles to implementation next year. The US biodiesel RVO is still uncertain. There are expectations of reconciliation in Sino - Canadian trade relations, which is bearish for rapeseed oil [5]. - **Investment View**: Short - term shorting is recommended [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short palm oil and rapeseed oil. For arbitrage, go long Y01 and short P01. For options, buy call options for protection. Risk factors to focus on include unexpected production cuts and policy disturbances [5]. PART TWO: Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences of different contracts such as P1 - 5, Y1 - 5, and OI1 - 5, and the spot price differences of domestic soybean oil and palm oil. The data sources are Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [7][9][14]. PART THREE: Fundamental Analysis of Oils and Fats Supply and Demand - **Southeast Asian Weather**: It shows the precipitation and temperature data of Southeast Asia in the past and future periods, including the precipitation in the past 14 days, the precipitation anomaly in the past 14 days, the precipitation forecast in the next 7 days, the temperature anomaly in the next 7 days, and the precipitation and temperature anomaly in the next 8 - 14 days [18][20][21]. - **Indonesian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It presents the monthly data of Indonesian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is GAPKI and the research institute of Guomao Futures [29][33][31]. - **Malaysian Monthly Supply and Demand**: It shows the monthly data of Malaysian palm oil production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory from 2021 to 2025. The data source is MPOB and the research institute of Guomao Futures [34][40][39]. - **Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference**: It presents the monthly import volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil in India from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [41][45][44]. - **Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand**: It shows the cumulative import volume, daily trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost price, import hedging profit, and monthly import volume of palm oil in China from 2021 to 2025. The data source is Wind and the research institute of Guomao Futures [47][51][58]. - **Weather and US Soybean Production Situation**: It presents the temperature and precipitation distribution in the US and Brazilian soybean - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the US soybean good - to - excellent rate and harvest progress from 2021 to 2025 [59][61][67]. - **US and Brazilian Export Situations**: It shows the cumulative export sales volume, cumulative export volume, and export volume to China of US soybeans, as well as the monthly export volume and CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2026. The data sources are USDA, ANEC, Steel Union, and the research institute of Guomao Futures [71][76][82]. - **China's Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation**: It presents China's weekly soybean arrival volume, weekly soybean oil production of domestic crushers, daily trading volume of domestic soybean oil, and weekly soybean oil inventory of Chinese crushers from 2021 to 2025 [86]. - **Canadian and European Rapeseed Situation**: It shows the precipitation forecast, precipitation distribution, and temperature distribution in the Canadian and European rapeseed - producing regions in the next 15 days, as well as the Canadian soil moisture [87][96]. - **Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation**: It presents the FOB price of rapeseed, weekly export volume of Canadian rapeseed, export volume of Canadian rapeseed oil, import hedging profit of Canadian rapeseed, expected domestic arrival volume of rapeseed, and domestic arrival volume of rapeseed oil. The data sources are public information and the research institute of Guomao Futures [99][101][111]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation**: It shows the weekly crushing volume of Chinese rapeseed, weekly production volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, weekly pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in oil mills, and weekly inventory of domestic rapeseed oil from 2021 to 2025 [105][108].
短期供应扰动仍在 棕榈油期价上方压力延续
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-03 06:49
Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent data indicating an increase in production and exports, but facing pressure from high domestic oilseed inventories and uncertain policies in Indonesia [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On November 3, the palm oil futures market showed a decline, with the main contract opening at 8732.00 CNY/ton and fluctuating between a high of 8754.00 CNY and a low of 8638.00 CNY, reflecting a drop of approximately 1.36% [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Producers Association (SPPOMA) reported a month-on-month increase in palm oil yield by 4.50%, oil extraction rate by 0.20%, and production by 5.55% for the period of October 1-31, 2025 [1]. Group 2: Price Influences - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade set the reference price for crude palm oil at $963.75 per ton for November, slightly higher than October's price of $963.61 per ton [1]. - Amspec, an independent inspection agency in Malaysia, noted that palm oil exports for October 1-31 reached 1,501,945 tons, up 4.31% from the previous month [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Donghai Futures indicated that palm oil has entered a technically oversold phase after consecutive declines, suggesting increased risks for short positions. Despite short-term production pressures, the seasonal destocking trend remains unchanged [1]. - Industrial factors such as disappointing domestic production and sales data, uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's biodiesel policies, and high domestic oilseed inventories are expected to continue exerting pressure on palm oil prices in the short term [2].
油脂油料早报-20251103
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 03:14
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents overnight market information on the oils and fats industry, including data on palm oil exports, reference prices, rapeseed harvest rates and exports, and soybean oil usage in biofuels, as well as spot prices of related products [1][2]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - Malaysia's October palm oil exports increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 1,639,089 tons [1] - Indonesia set the November crude palm oil reference price at $963.75 per ton, slightly higher than October, with an export tax of $124 per ton and a 10% special tax [1] - As of the week ending October 22, the rapeseed harvest rate in Saskatchewan, Canada was 98.14%; Manitoba's harvest was nearly complete with an average yield of around 45 bushels per acre; Alberta's harvest rate was 98.5%, higher than the five - year average. Future 15 - day weather in Canadian rapeseed areas is expected to have above - normal temperatures and precipitation [1] - As of the week ending October 26, Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 25.4% week - on - week to 155,500 tons. From August 1 to October 26, 2025, exports were 1.2348 million tons, a 57.4% decrease from the previous year. The commercial inventory as of October 26 was 1.3483 million tons [1] - U.S. soybean oil usage in biofuels dropped to 1.041 billion pounds in August from 1.108 billion pounds in July [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from October 27 to October 31, 2025 are presented in a table [2] Other Information - The report also mentions protein meal basis, fats and oils basis, and fats and oils futures price spreads, but no detailed content is provided [3][6][8]
油脂油料产业日报-20251102
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-11-02 01:31
Report Date - The report is dated October 31, 2025 [1] Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and trending weaker. There's potential to fall below 4,200 ringgit and further to 4,000 - 4,100 ringgit due to concerns of slowing exports and increasing production. After the current decline and risk release from the MPOB report, prices may stabilize and rebound. Starting from November, decreasing production and inventory will support price increases [3] - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward trend. After breaking below the 8,800 yuan support, there's pressure to fall to 8,500 - 8,600 yuan. Following the rebound of Malaysian palm oil above 4,000 ringgit, Dalian palm oil may also strengthen. A near - weak, far - strong market view is maintained [3] Soybean Oil - Dalian soybean oil futures opened higher but closed lower, dragged down by the falling BMD palm oil and the decline of CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the supply is abundant and demand is weak. There's a possibility that the January contract may fall to 8,000 yuan. If CBOT soybeans and soybean oil rebound, Dalian soybean oil will be boosted; otherwise, the January contract may break below the integer mark [4] Oilseeds - Soybean Meal - The factory - set price of soybean meal has increased by 20 - 40 yuan/ton, while the near - month basis has declined. Due to falling pig prices and continuous losses in the breeding industry, downstream demand is mainly for essential needs. Traders are cautious. If US soybeans are imported at the basic tariff, it will improve the supply in the first quarter of next year, but the key lies in the release of oil mill profit margins. After the price correction, there's still a chance for the price to rise [17] Price and Spread Information Oil Price and Spread - Palm oil: P 1 - 5 is - 46 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2; BMD palm oil主力 is 4,211 ringgit/ton, down 1.15% [5][8] - Soybean oil: Y 1 - 5 is 184 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 12; CBOT soybean oil主力 is 49.58 cents/pound, down 1.06% [5][14] Oilseed Price and Spread - Soybean meal: The closing price of bean粕01 is 3,021 with a daily increase of 27 and a rise of 0.9%; the difference between M01 - 05 is 195 with a daily increase of 29 [18][19] - Rapeseed meal: The closing price of菜粕01 is 2,388, down 13 and - 0.54%; the difference between RM01 - 05 is 66 with a daily increase of 23 [18][19]
油油油油2025、10、28
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 06:28
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the palm oil industry [3] Core Viewpoints - If Indonesia's palm oil production increases by 10% this year, the final output will reach a record high of 58 million tons. The production growth rate has gradually slowed since 2018 when Indonesia banned the development of new land for oil palm cultivation, with only 2019 seeing a growth rate of 9.37%. Whether Indonesia can achieve a 10% annual increase remains to be seen [3] - Even though the market expects the production to enter a decline cycle in November, there are still concerns about export demand. There were only rumors of a small amount of palm oil transactions last week ahead of India's Diwali in late October. Argentine sunflower oil is cheaper than that from the Black Sea, and there are also reports of domestic soybean oil exports to India. November may be a turning point for the oil market, depending on whether the US government will announce the compliance obligation volume for 2026. After the decline in oil prices, the market is waiting for demand to pick up and stabilize, and also needs confidence in biodiesel demand from Indonesia and the US. Additionally, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be any unexpected situations in weather and supply in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The report suggests focusing on the fulfillment of the MPOB October report next month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. International Oilseed Prices - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly prices of Australian and Canadian rapeseeds declined. Australian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage. European sunflower seeds had the largest single - week increase, and Ukrainian sunflower seeds also saw an upward adjustment. The increase in international soybean prices was relatively small [5] 2. International Oil Prices - As of October 27, 2025, most weekly oil prices declined. South American soybean oil dropped by over $20 per ton, while European sunflower oil prices rose [9] 3. International Oil FOB Spreads - The spread between Malaysian and Indonesian refined palm oil was $0 per ton this week, compared to $15 per ton last week and a historical average of $8 per ton - The spread between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was -$29 per ton, compared to -$9 per ton last week and a historical average of $148 per ton [21] 4. International Rapeseed Spreads - As of October 24, with the progress of the Australian rapeseed harvest, the spread between Australian and Canadian rapeseeds began to narrow, while the spreads between German, Ukrainian, and Canadian rapeseeds remained at a high level [23] 5. Indian Port Oil Spreads - As of October 24, the spread between Indian port soybean oil and palm oil was $40 per ton, down from $50 per ton last week - The spread between sunflower oil and palm oil was $210 per ton, up from $190 per ton last week - The spread between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was -$6 per ton, down from $0 per ton last week [30] 6. Import and Crushing Profits - Last week, three November - shipment palm oil vessels were traded in the domestic market - Domestic oil mills exported 10,000 - 20,000 tons of soybean oil to India for January shipment [38] 7. Biodiesel - The weekly price of US soybean oil weakened, and the processing and blending profits continued to improve - After the rebound of RME, the weekly RME processing profit improved [132][139] 8. Demand Side Weekly Oil Transactions - Weekly spot oil transactions were sluggish [146] Oil Spot Basis - Different from the weak basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the basis of rapeseed oil was relatively strong [151] Oil Inventory - The report provides monthly balance sheets for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, including data on initial inventory, imports, total supply, demand, ending inventory, inventory changes, inventory - to - consumption ratios, and surplus amounts [177]
养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251031
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 05:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: On Thursday, soybean oil showed a strong performance. Although Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, the commercial import profit of US soybeans is negative, and the cost increase supports domestic soybean prices. With ample domestic soybean oil supply and the over - hanging shadow of palm oil production increase, soybean oil will mainly bottom - out and adjust in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The support level of the main soybean oil contract is 8050 - 8080 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8350 - 8400 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On Thursday, the main rapeseed oil contract continued to be weak. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and the rapeseed sector is still affected by macro - economic and trade policies. The Sino - US summit released positive signals, which is negative for supply - side production. The expected meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders strengthens the expectation of relaxed rapeseed imports, pressuring rapeseed oil sentiment. The current rapeseed oil inventory is at a relatively high historical level, but the new supply is tightening, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. If there is no substantial relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies, the rapeseed sector is still optimistic in the medium - to - long term under the expectation of inventory reduction. For the main rapeseed oil contract, short positions should be reduced on dips. The support level of the OI main contract is 9350 - 9380, and the pressure level is 9900 - 9930 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: On Thursday, palm oil prices opened low and closed high, showing an overall weak trend. The over - expected production increase in Indonesia may offset the increase in biodiesel consumption, and the decline in international crude oil prices also weakens palm oil. As palm oil will enter the production - reduction season in November, the downward space is expected to be limited. In the short term, palm oil may bottom - out and fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the main palm oil contract is 8750 - 8780, and the pressure level is 9300 - 9350 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: On Thursday, soybean meal prices were firm. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are optimistic, and the export signal of US soybeans is positive, driving up CBOT soybeans. The export potential of South American soybeans is declining, and the cost end supports the price of soybean No. 2. The import cost of soybeans increases, and the oil mill's profit margin narrows. Soybean meal is expected to remain firm, and it is recommended to go long lightly in the short term. The support level of the main soybean meal contract is 2900 - 2930 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton. The support level of the main soybean No. 2 contract is 3600 - 3650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3750 - 3810 yuan/ton [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: On Thursday, rapeseed meal prices rebounded slightly after the opening. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and it is slightly boosted by the rebound of soybean meal. The market is worried about the relaxation of Canadian rapeseed import policies. The current supply and demand of rapeseed meal are both weak, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. However, the demand in the fourth quarter is seasonally weak. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The support level of the RM main contract is 2280 - 2300, and the pressure level is 2450 - 2480 [4][5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On Thursday, the prices continued to fluctuate weakly. The Sino - US trade negotiation results are in line with expectations, and the pressure of concentrated listing continues to suppress the market. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is coming to an end, and the selling pressure is gradually releasing, while the downstream support is insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or consider the reverse spread opportunity of the corn 1 - 5 spread. For the corn 01 contract, the support range is 2000 - 2020, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200. For the corn starch 01 contract, the support range is 2350 - 2360, and the pressure range is 2500 - 2520. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: On Thursday, the price of soybean No. 1 stagnated and adjusted. The price of new - season soybeans in the Northeast market has risen steadily, but the purchasing enthusiasm of grain trading enterprises is low. The supply of Northeast soybeans is increasing, but there is a sentiment of reluctance to sell at the grass - roots level. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has cooled slightly, and it is recommended to exit long positions. The pressure level of the soybean No. 1 01 contract is 4150 - 4200 yuan/ton, and the support level is 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: On Thursday, the peanut futures price continued to oscillate weakly at the bottom. The market lacks positive themes. The new - season peanut planting area in 2025 increased by 4.01% year - on - year, but the yield in some areas of Henan may decline due to weather. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, there is still pressure on spot and futures prices. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 [6]. - **Pigs**: On Thursday, the futures price of pigs decreased with increasing positions. The market is still worried about the risk of pig hoarding. The spot price stopped falling this week, and the basis difference between the 2511 contract and the spot price is gradually narrowing. It is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range of the 01 contract is 11800 - 12000, and the pressure range is 12500 - 12800 [7][8]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the futures price of eggs rose first and then fell. The spot price stopped rising and adjusted after a continuous rebound. The overall consumption is gradually entering a seasonal peak season, and the egg production capacity is gradually being reduced. It is recommended to go long at low prices. The reference range of the 12 contract is 2900 - 3100, and the pressure range is 3300 - 3350 [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - **Oilseeds**: Soybean No. 1 01 is expected to bottom out and stabilize, and it is recommended to exit long positions; soybean No. 2 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; peanut 11 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Oils**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to go short lightly; rapeseed oil 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to reduce short positions; palm 01 is expected to bottom out, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Protein**: Soybean meal 01 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see; rapeseed meal 01 is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions; starch 01 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold short positions [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Pig 01 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see attitude; egg 12 is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - **Cross - month Arbitrage**: For most varieties, the reference strategy is to wait and see, while for some, such as corn 5 - 1, it is recommended to go long at low prices, and for pig 1 - 3, it is recommended to do positive arbitrage at low prices [13]. - **Cross - variety Arbitrage**: Different cross - variety combinations have different reference strategies, including short - term operations, long - term operations, and waiting and seeing [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [14]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table a. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipment periods, including arrival premiums, futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [17]. b. Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [17]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including consumption, inventory, operating rate, etc., are presented [18]. c. Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, production and sales data, inventory data, and profit data [19][20][21][22]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming End (Pigs, Eggs)**: Multiple charts show the price trends, inventory, and trading volume of pigs and eggs [23][27][29][30] - **Oils and Oilseeds**: Charts cover the production, inventory, trading volume, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [32][40][49] - **Feed End**: Charts display the price trends, inventory, operating rate, and profit of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][63][68][80] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts show the historical volatility, trading volume, and open interest of options for various varieties [89][91] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - Charts present the warehouse receipt quantities of various varieties, including rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [97][100][105]
葵花籽油(一)种植分布与食用油性状
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 23:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global vegetable oils: Sunflower oil is the fourth-largest vegetable oil globally, with its total production approaching that of rapeseed oil. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to steadily advance the research and registration of sunflower oil futures [4]. - Supply and demand in China: In China, the supply of sunflower oil raw materials comes from both domestic cultivation and imports, and the supply of refined oil is about half domestic production and half imports. The consumption of sunflower oil is significantly lower than that of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and peanut oil, but higher than that of linseed oil, olive oil, and camellia oil. Its pricing needs to consider both domestic and international factors [4]. - Substitution potential: Refined sunflower oil and refined peanut oil have similar fatty acid ratios and smoke points, and may have a strong substitution relationship in the Chinese catering industry. If global sunflower seed cultivation increases, it may reduce the overall cost of China's catering cooking oil [4]. - Production and consumption: Domestic oil - pressing enterprises have mature processes and market experience in sunflower oil production, and some well - known brands have been accepted by consumers. The delivery standards of sunflower oil are expected to be widely accepted by producers and the catering industry [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil - used Sunflower: An Annual Herbaceous Oil Crop in Mid - Latitude Regions, Neighbor to Spring Rapeseed - Global status: Sunflower oil is the fourth - largest vegetable oil globally. Oil - used sunflower (oil - used sunflower) is one of China's five major oil crops. It is rich in linoleic acid and is known as the "healthy and nutritious oil" of the 21st century [21]. - Cultivation in China: In China, oil - used sunflower is mainly planted in northern provinces. It is usually sown in spring when the soil temperature at 10 cm depth is above 10°C, and harvested from August to September. It has stronger adaptability to soil pH than rapeseed, and mechanical harvesting can be considered in large - scale farms [21]. - Comparison with rapeseed: Oil - used sunflower and rapeseed are comparable in terms of oil - producing potential, but they have significant differences in crop morphology, growth laws, and cultivation requirements. Factors such as soil alkalinity, the need for large - scale mechanization, and local high - yield demonstration fields should be considered when choosing between them [25][26]. 3.2 Can Sunflower Oil Rich in Linoleic Acid Omega - 6 Integrate into Chinese Cuisine? - Consumption form: In China, sunflower oil is mainly for edible consumption, and it is unlikely to be used as a raw material for biodiesel under current policies. The retail and wholesale prices of sunflower oil are usually lower than those of peanut oil and higher than those of genetically modified soybean oil [28][30]. - Fatty acid composition: Sunflower oil and peanut oil are similar in fatty acid distribution, both being rich in linoleic acid. They may have a strong substitution relationship in Chinese cuisine, although the current annual consumption of sunflower oil in China is less than 5 million tons [30][35]. - Smoke point: The smoke point of sunflower oil is generally defined as the lowest temperature at which it produces continuous blue smoke when heated without ventilation. Refined sunflower oil can reach a smoke point of over 190°C, meeting the requirements of most Chinese restaurants. If sunflower oil futures are launched, the delivery standard is likely to be "national standard grade 3", which can be refined to "national standard grade 1" to meet catering needs [36][40][43]. 3.3 Import of Sunflower Oil: A Reference for the "Full Customs Process" - Sunflower oil import process: The import of sunflower oil requires overseas production enterprise registration, importer and exporter filing, and compliance with customs declaration document requirements. Customs conducts qualified assessment upon arrival, and there are specific storage and transportation requirements for bulk sunflower oil [49][50][51]. - Sunflower seed import: Sunflower seeds are a long - term trade surplus product in China. The import volume shows an upward trend. They are classified as "oilseeds" by customs and need to obtain the "Entry Animal and Plant Quarantine Permit" [56]. - Current market products: There are many well - known domestic sunflower oil brands, each with its own characteristics, such as market share, quality, and health - related features [58].
油脂油料产业日报-20251029
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 11:47
Report Information - Report Title: "Oils and Fats and Oilseeds Industry Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Oils Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures have been on a continuous downward trend. Due to concerns about increased production and slower exports, the futures price has broken below the annual - line support of 4,350 ringgit. There is still pressure for an inertial decline, and it may fall further under the potential negative impact of rising month - end inventories. It is expected to test the support around 4,200 ringgit. After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report next month and with the support of the production slowdown season starting in November, Malaysian palm oil may gradually stop falling, stabilize, and rebound [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures have been dragged down by the Malaysian palm oil trend and have fallen significantly. After breaking below the annual - line support, there is pressure for further weakness. It may stop falling or stage a short - term oversold rebound around 8,800 yuan; otherwise, it may fall to 8,600 yuan. Given the increasing port inventories, the decline of Malaysian palm oil, and weakening demand due to lower temperatures, a short - term bearish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to whether it can follow the Malaysian palm oil trend and stop falling and stabilize in the first and middle of next month [3]. Soybean Oil - Currently, the domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient while demand is weak, presenting a bearish fundamental situation. CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil may continue to fall, dragging down Dalian soybean oil. The market is closely watching the Sino - US trade negotiations. If the negotiation results lead to a breakthrough rise in CBOT soybeans, Dalian soybean oil may quickly rebound; otherwise, if CBOT soybeans fall again, the January contract of Dalian soybean oil may break below the integer - level support [3]. Oilseeds Soybean Meal - News of COFCO's purchase of 180,000 tons of US soybeans this week has led to a mixed sentiment among the long and short sides. The market is trading cautiously, waiting for the final result and specific details of the Sino - US trade agreement. The short - term main contract of Dalian soybean meal may consolidate in the range of 2,950 - 2,980 yuan. In the spot market, most of the oil mills' fixed - price offers remain stable, with some decreasing by 10 yuan/ton, and the near - month basis remains stable. The pattern of weak oils and strong meals continues, and the improvement of oil mills' crushing profits is limited. The small - scale arrival of Argentine soybean meal has little impact on the market. The rebound of pig prices has stimulated some breeding enterprises to enter the secondary fattening market. Feed mills are generally waiting due to safety inventories, and traders have limited motivation to chase the rising prices due to a small number of low - price contracts. Both are waiting for the clarity of the Sino - US negotiations [14]. Data Summary Oils Oils' Inter - monthly and Inter - variety Spreads - P 1 - 5: - 22 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan; Y - P 01: - 776 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; etc. [4] Palm Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Palm oil 01: 8,842 yuan/ton, down 1.29%; BMD palm oil main contract: 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 1.67%; etc. [5] Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Daily Prices - Soybean oil 01: 8,132 yuan/ton, down 0.2%; CBOT soybean oil main contract: 50.16 cents/pound, down 1.01%; etc. [11] Oilseeds Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01: 2,969 yuan, down 6 yuan, down 0.2%; CBOT yellow soybeans: 1,093.5, unchanged; etc. [15] Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05: 180 yuan, up 39 yuan; RM01 - 05: 58 yuan, up 46 yuan; etc. [16]
油脂油料产业日报-20251027
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 10:54
Report Information - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Palm Oil - **International Market**: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are trending weakly due to increased production and slower exports. There is pressure to test the annual line support at 4,350 ringgit. After effective correction and risk release, there is a chance for the futures to stabilize and strengthen, supported by decreased production and inventory and the hype of Indonesia's B50 policy [3]. - **Domestic Market**: Dalian palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There is pressure to test the 9,000 yuan mark for support, with strong support at the annual line of 8,900 yuan. After correction and stabilization, it may follow the trend of Malaysian palm oil. The view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil - The short - term trend of CBOT soybeans and soybean oil is strong, so there is a possibility of an increase in Dalian soybean oil. However, due to sufficient domestic supply, weak demand, and the relative weakness of palm oil, the increase is expected to be limited. The 1 - month contract may face resistance at 8,250 yuan on the daily middle - rail, and if it breaks through, it may rise to 8,430 yuan on the upper - rail. If the Sino - US agreement cannot be reached on the 30th, the 1 - month contract will decline due to the bearish domestic fundamentals [4]. Oilseeds - Dalian soybean meal futures are in a narrow range between 2,900 - 2,950 yuan. The market is waiting for the result of Sino - US trade negotiations. The overall market sentiment is still cautious, with a strong wait - and - see atmosphere [17]. Price Information Oil Price Spreads - Various price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and other oils are provided, including P 1 - 5, Y - P 01, etc. For example, P 1 - 5 is 18 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 6 yuan/ton [5]. Palm Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Palm oil futures prices such as palm oil 01 are 9,100 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.24%. BMD palm oil futures are at 4,399 ringgit/ton with a decline of 0.52%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [7][8]. Soybean Oil Spot and Futures Prices - Soybean oil 01 futures are at 8,234 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.03%. CBOT soybean oil futures are at 50.29 cents/pound with a decline of 1.12%. Spot prices and basis are also provided [14]. Oilseed Futures Prices - Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, soybean meal 01 is at 2,932 yuan with a decline of 1 yuan and a decline rate of 0.03% [18]. Oilseed Price Spreads - Price spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, such as M01 - 05 and RM01 - 05, are provided. For example, M01 - 05 is 141 yuan with a daily change of - 24 yuan [19].