Core Viewpoint - Major global financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Vanguard Group, and BlackRock, have significantly increased their holdings in technology giants, particularly Nvidia, as revealed in their recent 13F filings for Q2 2025 [1][2][6]. Group 1: JPMorgan Chase Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, JPMorgan Chase's U.S. equity investment portfolio reached a total market value of $1.53 trillion, reflecting an 11.7% increase from the previous quarter [3]. - The top five holdings of JPMorgan Chase are all technology companies, accounting for 25.16% of the total portfolio value [4]. - The largest positions include Microsoft (MSFT) at approximately $78.12 billion (5.11%), Nvidia (NVDA) at about $73.09 billion (4.78%), and Apple (AAPL) at around $44.03 billion (2.88%) [4][5]. Group 2: Vanguard Group Holdings - Vanguard Group's U.S. equity holdings reached a total market value of $6.18 trillion as of June 30, 2025, with the top ten holdings representing 28.81% of the portfolio [6]. - Vanguard increased its positions in Nvidia and Microsoft by 39.47 million shares and 13.69 million shares, respectively, during Q2 2025 [6]. Group 3: BlackRock Holdings - BlackRock's U.S. equity holdings totaled $5.25 trillion as of June 30, 2025, with the top ten holdings making up 28.07% of the portfolio [6]. - The largest holding for BlackRock is Nvidia, with a total of 1.91 billion shares, and it also increased its positions in Apple and Amazon during Q2 2025 [6].

相关机构表示，2025年初以来，港股市场持续活跃，甚至一度领跑全球市场。在"资金盛、资产荒"的背 景下，港股日均成交额较去年同期增长约80%。对宏观不敏感的结构性行情尤为活跃：虽然整体中国基 本面趋弱且外部扰动不断，但结构性行情活跃，板块之间此消彼长、不断轮动，如年初以来的AI、新 消费、创新药等几轮主线，显著跑赢A股市场多数宽基指数。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证港股通科技ETF发起联接C（015740），国泰中证港股通科技 ETF发起联接A（015739）。 港股科技ETF（代码：513020）跟踪的是港股通科技指数（代码：931573），该指数由中证指数有限公 司编制，从港股通范围内上市的科技行业公司中精选不超过50家优质企业作为成分股。该指数旨在全面 反映可通过港股通渠道投资的科技领域上 ...

Group 1 - The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is initiating delisting procedures for FOXO Technologies due to its declining stock prices [1] - The decision reflects broader market trends affecting companies with poor stock performance [1] - FOXO Technologies is facing challenges that may impact its future operations and market presence [1]

港股科技ETF（代码：513020）跟踪的是港股通科技指数（代码：931573），该指数由中证指数有限公 司编制，从港股通范围内上市的科技行业公司中精选不超过50家优质企业作为成分股。该指数旨在全面 反映可通过港股通渠道投资的科技领域上市公司证券的整体表现，其成分股具有显著的成长潜力和市场 波动特征。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证港股通科技ETF发起联接C（015740），国泰中证港股通科技 ETF发起联接A（015739）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 相关机构表示，2025年初以来，港股市场持续活跃，甚至一度领跑全球市场。在"资金盛、资产荒"的背 景下，港股日均成交额较去年同期增长约80%。对宏观不敏感的结构性行情尤为活跃：虽然整体中国基 本面趋弱且外部扰动不断，但结构性行情活跃，板块之间此消彼长、不断轮动，如年初以来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The core warning from Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett is that the true test of the AI bubble's potential collapse lies not in stock prices but in the credit spreads of technology companies. A widening spread would indicate that massive cash consumption for investments is unsustainable, signaling a potential market crash [2][3][7]. Group 1: AI Bubble and Market Dynamics - The current AI-driven bull market is characterized by significant capital expenditures, with a projected $2.9 trillion in AI-related capital spending by 2028 [5]. - Hartnett draws parallels to the 1999 internet bubble, where a similar widening of credit spreads preceded a market crash [7]. - The market's rebound is highly concentrated, with the "Magnificent Seven" tech companies contributing 80% of the S&P 500's returns since April [9]. Group 2: Labor Market Impact - The impact of AI on the labor market is becoming evident, with the unemployment rate for U.S. college graduates rising from 4.0% in December 2023 to 8.1% [9]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Indicators - Despite underlying risks, investor sentiment remains overly optimistic, with 60% expecting a "Goldilocks" scenario of falling interest rates and rising stock prices, while zero expect deflation [13]. - Hartnett identifies a "zero expectation" as a contrarian signal, indicating potential market vulnerability [14]. - Three sell signals from fund manager surveys suggest that a drop in expected economic "hard landing" probabilities could foreshadow a market pullback [15]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Hartnett highlights China as an attractive investment opportunity, citing factors such as being overlooked, peak tariffs, consumption stimulus, and record trade surpluses [19]. - The report also maintains a bullish long-term outlook on gold, driven by inflationary pressures, geopolitical isolation, and expectations of central banks reassessing gold reserves [20].

人工智能正在成为裁员的主要推手之一，应届毕业生和年轻科技从业者的失业率正在上升。 8月10日周日，美银Hartnett表示，美国毕业生失业率从2023年12月的4.0%飙升至8.1%，人工智能已开 始颠覆美国就业市场。 据人力资源机构Challenger, Gray & Christmas的最新数据，仅今年前七个月，美国就有超过1万个岗位的 消失与生成式AI的应用直接相关。该机构认为，AI已跃升为年度前五大裁员原因之一。 整体来看，2025年美国企业宣布的裁员总数已超过80.6万，创下自2020年以来同期最高纪录。其中，科 技行业是重灾区，已有超8.9万个岗位被削减，自2023年以来至少有2.7万个科技岗位因AI自动化而被取 代。 初级岗位首当其冲 AI正在直接取代大量初级岗位。面向Z世代的求职平台Handshake数据显示，初级职位的招聘信息（尤 其是企业类岗位）同比下降了15%。过去两年里，在招聘信息中提到AI的雇主数量激增了400%。 这些被AI"接手"的工作，大多是原本由初级员工完成的。耶鲁大学管理学院组织行为学副教授Botelho 表示，受冲击最大的是初级员工，许多刚毕业的新员工从事的都是知识密集型 ...

Group 1: Indian Market - The Indian market appears to be nearing a "panic peak," but caution is advised before buying in [2] - Since the downgrade in October, the MSCI India Index has underperformed the MSCI Global Index by nearly 20% [2] - The Indian market has seen a net outflow of $12 billion in foreign investments this year [2] - Current valuations are still above historical averages by more than one standard deviation, and corporate earnings have shown a sequential decline of 7% [2] Group 2: Japanese Market - The Japanese Topix index has recently surpassed the 3000-point mark, but there are potential risks of a pullback [3] - Valuations have returned to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, indicating the market is in an overbought territory [3] - Historically, August has been the weakest month for the Topix index, raising concerns about future performance [3] Group 3: U.S. Technology Stocks - A significant question raised is whether a low allocation to U.S. technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) could be effective [4] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech index has outperformed the MSCI Global Index by 220% over the past five years [4] - The current market breadth is considered the worst on record, suggesting a reevaluation of investment strategies [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite signs of a "stall-speed" economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a gradual rate-cutting approach [5] - The Fed is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two additional cuts in 2026 [5] - The current policy environment is markedly different from when rates were at 5.25%-5.50%, indicating a less restrictive stance [5]

印度的"关税反击战"：历史与经济的双重博弈 在全球贸易动态的舞台上，印度正处于风口浪尖之中。美国总统特朗普的关税政策像一把巨大的斧头， 猛然劈向印度，试图通过加征关税来解决其与印度之间的贸易逆差问题。然而，莫迪政府显然并没有向 这一压力屈服的计划。2025年8月初开始，美国对印度商品实施了高达50%的关税，此举不仅表面上是 为了平衡经贸关系，其背后更是隐藏着地缘政治的深层考量。 在经济层面，印度采取的反制措施既谨慎又犀利。虽然向世界贸易组织（WTO）提交了报复性关税的 方案，但并未立即实施，这种绝妙的策略不仅让印度在谈判中保留了余地，同时也给予了美国的农业和 科技行业施加压力的机会。与此同时，印度还加速了其"向东看"的战略：恢复了对中国公民的旅游签 证，重启高层互访，并适度放宽了对中资的限制。这一系列可见的动作并非偶然，而是在面对西方压力 之际，为了寻找到战略平衡而采取的必要行动。尽管金砖国家内部存在一定的分歧，但来自俄罗斯的明 确支持更加凸显了美国单边主义面临的孤立问题。 特朗普所面临的困境在于，他的关税武器并未考虑到潜在的连锁反应。美国国内债务高企，想要解决贸 易逆差并非仅依靠对印度施压就能实现。此外，印 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is significantly impacting the job market, particularly for entry-level positions, leading to increased unemployment rates among recent graduates and young professionals in the technology sector [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact of AI on Employment - Over 10,000 jobs in the U.S. have been lost due to generative AI applications in the first seven months of this year, with entry-level positions being the most affected [3][4]. - The unemployment rate for U.S. graduates surged from 4.0% in December 2023 to 8.1% [3][5]. - AI has become one of the top five reasons for layoffs in the U.S., with over 806,000 layoffs announced by companies in 2025, the highest since 2020 [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges for Young Job Seekers - Nearly half of U.S. Generation Z job seekers believe that AI has devalued their degrees, with the unemployment rate for recent college graduates rising to 6%, significantly above the national average of around 4% [5][6]. - The technology sector has seen the most significant impact, with unemployment rates for employees aged 20-30 increasing by approximately 3 percentage points this year [6][7]. Group 3: Shift in Hiring Practices - Companies are increasingly using AI to replace tasks traditionally performed by entry-level employees, leading to a 15% decline in job postings for entry-level positions [4][8]. - Major companies like Shopify and McKinsey have publicly stated that they will not hire new employees if AI can perform the tasks [8].

Economic Indicators - The US added 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is now at 88.90%, up from 80.30% the previous week[3] Market Trends - Global stock markets mostly rose this week, driven by expectations of monetary easing following Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.27%, while the US dollar index slightly declined, remaining below 100[3] Fund Flows - In the past week, overseas active funds saw an outflow of $0.96 million, while passive funds experienced a larger outflow of $3.44 million from the Chinese market[17] - Domestic funds also faced outflows, with $0.50 million leaving the market, and foreign funds withdrawing $4.40 million[17] Valuation Metrics - The equity risk premium (ERP) for all A-shares decreased from 64% to 62%, while the Shanghai Composite Index's ERP fell from 57% to 53%[3] - The risk-adjusted returns for the S&P 500 increased from the 48th percentile to the 55th percentile, indicating improved performance expectations[3] Sector Performance - In the US market, funds flowed into the communication, technology, and utilities sectors, while energy, healthcare, and financial sectors saw outflows[3] - In the Chinese market, funds flowed into financials, consumer, and technology sectors, with outflows from infrastructure, real estate, and healthcare[3]