Market Performance - On July 23, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and lost the 3600-point level, closing at 3582.30, up 0.01%[15] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37%, closing at 11059.04, while the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.01%[15] - Total market turnover was 18642.75 billion CNY, a decrease of 284.50 billion CNY from the previous trading day[15] Sector and Style Analysis - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, most sectors declined; leading sectors included Non-Bank Financials (up 1.31%), Home Appliances (up 0.51%), and Banks (up 0.38%)[20] - The worst-performing sectors were Building Materials (down 2.56%), Defense and Military (down 1.80%), and Comprehensive Finance (down 1.35%)[20] - In terms of investment style, Financials outperformed, followed by Consumption and Growth, while Large-Cap Value stocks led over Large-Cap Growth stocks[20] Capital Flow - On July 23, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 646.03 billion CNY, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 346.87 billion CNY and super large orders a net outflow of 299.17 billion CNY[24] - Small orders continued to see a net inflow of 609.73 billion CNY, while medium orders had a slight inflow of 10.19 billion CNY[24] ETF Trading Activity - Major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw varied trading volumes, with the SSE 50 ETF trading at 21.25 billion CNY, an increase of 2.14 billion CNY from the previous day[29] - The CSI 500 ETF had a trading volume of 17.65 billion CNY, up by 3.66 billion CNY, while the CSI 1000 ETF traded at 10.37 billion CNY, an increase of 2.32 billion CNY[29] Global Market Overview - On July 23, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.62% at 25538.07 points and the Nikkei 225 up 3.51% at 41171.32 points[33] - In contrast, European indices showed mixed results, with the DAX down 1.09% and the FTSE 100 up 0.12%[33]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the non-bank sector [1] Core Insights - In the second quarter, the non-bank sector saw an increase in allocation but remains under-allocated by 4.72 percentage points. The effect of medium to long-term institutional capital entering the market is becoming evident, with optimism surrounding profit improvement and low valuations in non-bank stocks [3][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The second quarter market rally led to an increase in institutional allocation to the brokerage sector, with the proportion of public fund holdings (excluding passive index funds) rising from 0.51% to 0.80%, still under-allocated by 3.02 percentage points. The Wind All A-Share Index increased by 3.86%, contributing to a 4.67% rise in the brokerage index. Notable individual stock movements include: - Dongfang Wealth's holding value proportion increased from 0.1093% to 0.1484% - China Galaxy's holding value proportion rose from 0.0285% to 0.0465% - CITIC Securities' holding value proportion decreased from 0.0889% to 0.1662% [5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's allocation increased from 0.84% to 1.40%, still under-allocated by 1.23%. The insurance index rose by 11.53% in the second quarter. Key stock movements include: - China Ping An's holding value proportion increased from 0.54% to 0.85% - China Life's holding value proportion rose from 0.016% to 0.019% - New China Life's holding value proportion increased from 0.05% to 0.13% [5] Multi-Financial and Fintech Sector - The allocation to the multi-financial and fintech sectors increased from 0.176% to 0.182%. Notable stock movements include: - Tonghuashun was reduced in allocation, with its holding value proportion decreasing from 0.092% to 0.063% - Zhinan Compass saw an increase in institutional holdings from 2.39 million shares to 4.36 million shares, an 82% increase - Jiangsu Jinzhong's institutional holdings decreased by 7.6% to 179 million shares [5] Investment Recommendations - The non-bank sector remains under-allocated, with a total under-allocation of 4.72 percentage points. The report recommends increasing positions in undervalued non-bank stocks, particularly those with a high discount rate relative to A-shares. Recommended stocks include: - China Life H, CICC H, New China Life, China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance - Leading consumer finance company Yixin Group - M&A targets Xiangcai Securities and Industrial Securities - Stablecoin-related stocks Zhong An Online and Lakala [5][7]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, serving as market indicators and highlighting the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies [1][4] - As of July 18, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 0.00%, Shenzhen Component Index 5.06%, CSI 300 4.64%, CSI 500 3.65%, CSI 1000 0.91%, CSI 2000 0.00%, ChiNext Index 10.71%, and STAR 50 Index 10.59% [5][21] - Among the first-tier industry indices, non-ferrous metals, steel, basic chemicals, communications, and defense industries are closest to their 250-day new highs, while coal, food and beverage, real estate, consumer services, and transportation industries are further away [8][21] Group 2 - A total of 1,001 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number of new highs in the pharmaceutical, basic chemicals, and machinery industries, totaling 129, 122, and 114 stocks respectively [2][13] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the banking, comprehensive finance, and steel industries, with respective proportions of 88.10%, 40.00%, and 33.96% [13][15] - By sector distribution, the manufacturing and cyclical sectors had the most new high stocks, with 289 and 245 stocks respectively, representing 18.65% and 21.88% of their respective sector stock counts [15][22] Group 3 - The report identifies 46 stable new high stocks, including Shenghong Technology, Borui Pharmaceutical, and Shijia Photon, with the most new high stocks in the manufacturing and technology sectors, totaling 14 and 13 stocks respectively [3][19][22] - The manufacturing sector's highest number of new highs is in the machinery industry, while the technology sector's highest is in the computer industry [19][22] - The selection criteria for stable new high stocks include analyst attention, relative strength of stock prices, price path stability, and continuity of new highs [18][22]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a mixed performance on July 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3519.65 points, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10684.52 points, down 0.11% [1][5][9] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 20 sectors saw gains, with machinery, petroleum and petrochemicals, and electric power and utilities leading the increases, while comprehensive finance, real estate, and media sectors faced significant declines [1][5][9] - The total trading volume for the A-share market was 14809 billion, showing a noticeable decrease compared to the previous day [1][5][9] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indices recorded slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.2%, the S&P 500 up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq up 0.27%, reaching a historical high [2][5] - The Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index fell by 0.1%, with Apple dropping over 1% and Nvidia down 0.52% [2][5] Key News Highlights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China released opinions on strengthening judicial work in the new era, emphasizing the need to combat financial crimes and improve regulations in emerging financial sectors [11] - The People's Bank of China announced that the social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, which is 4.74 trillion more than the same period last year [10][13] - China's total import and export value for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [14][15]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to construction, testing, or evaluation[1][2][3]

Market Performance - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.45%[2] - The total market turnover was 14,584.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,533.86 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day[2] - Out of 5,305 stocks, 3,205 rose and 2,100 fell, indicating a generally positive market sentiment despite the turnover decline[2] Sector and Industry Analysis - The top-performing sectors included Machinery (up 1.21%), Oil & Petrochemicals (up 0.92%), and Power & Utilities (up 0.65%) while the worst performers were Comprehensive Finance (down 3.81%), Real Estate (down 1.25%), and Media (down 1.13%)[2][21] - The market style ranking was led by Cyclical > Defensive > Consumer > Growth > Financial, with large-cap value outperforming mid-cap growth[21] Capital Flow - On July 14, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 407.42 billion yuan, with large orders contributing to a net outflow of 155.83 billion yuan[3][25] - Small orders continued to see a net inflow of 302.45 billion yuan, indicating retail investor interest despite institutional selling[25] ETF Trading Activity - Major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF saw significant decreases in trading volume, with changes of -21.11 billion yuan and -18.33 billion yuan respectively[3][30] - The total trading volume for these ETFs was 15.00 billion yuan for the SSE 50 ETF and 33.51 billion yuan for the CSI 300 ETF on the same day[30] Global Market Overview - On July 14, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.26% while the Nikkei 225 fell by 0.28% and the KOSPI increased by 0.83%[4][33] - The U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.63% and the S&P 500 down 0.33%[5][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The US has extended the tariff exemption period for various countries until August 1st. The impact of US tariff policies on the market remains uncertain, and there is a risk of emotional shocks similar to the situation in 2018. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and there are strong expectations for macro - policies before the Politburo meeting at the end of July [4]. - The real - estate sales are seasonally declining at a low level, and the service industry is experiencing structural differentiation and a decline due to high summer temperatures. The manufacturing's rush - to - export phase is ending, and there may be a decline in the third quarter. The PPI deteriorated significantly in June, and domestic anti - involution policies are expected to reverse the commodity supply - demand balance and lead to a recovery in prices [4]. - Domestic liquidity is generally neutral, with marginal tightening. Overseas liquidity is also tightening marginally. The US dollar index is expected to rebound from an oversold position. The domestic stock market will receive south - flowing return funds, but there is an outflow from passive ETF shares. IPO and other equity financing are increasing, and margin trading funds are continuously flowing in, while the pressure of share unlocks is decreasing marginally [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a relatively high level in the historical range. The stock - bond risk premium at home and abroad has further declined, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the broad - based index market is expected to oscillate, reach a peak, and then decline. It is recommended to reduce long positions in stock index futures after a sharp rise this week. In terms of style, hold long positions in IC and IM, and short IF and IH on rallies, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of long IM and short IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: A - shares led the rise last week, while US stocks led the decline. The ranking of index increases is: ChiNext Index > German stock market > Shenzhen Component Index > FTSE Europe > Hang Seng Index > FTSE Emerging Markets > Nikkei 225 > NASDAQ Index. Specific increases include: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% [8][9]. - **Industry Performance**: The comprehensive finance industry led the rise, while the automobile industry led the decline [12]. - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.56%, 0.46%, 0.56%, and 0.67% respectively last week, with the discounts of IF and IH narrowing significantly. The inter - period spread rates (between the current month and the next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.08%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.22% respectively, with the inter - period discounts of IF and IM narrowing slightly. The inter - period spread rates (between the next quarter and the current month) of the four major stock index futures changed by 0.1%, 0.17%, 0.15%, and 0.33% respectively, with the long - term discounts of the four major index futures converging significantly, especially for IM [21]. 2. Fund Flows - **Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds**: Margin trading funds flowed in 20.78 billion yuan last week, reaching 1.87 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.01% to 2.25%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds was 3065.57 billion yuan, an increase of 39.88 billion yuan from the previous week, and the share was 1988.43 billion shares, with a redemption of 1.09 billion shares from the previous week [24]. - **Industrial Capital**: In the first two weeks of July, equity financing was 19.42 billion yuan, with 3 companies. Among them, IPO financing was 3.98 billion yuan, private placement was 15.44 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 8.45 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing increased marginally. The market value of stock unlocks last week was 39.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.58 billion yuan from the previous week [28]. 3. Liquidity - **Monetary Injection**: Last week, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase expired 652.2 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase injection was 425.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net monetary withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. The MLF had a net injection in June, with a total of 300 billion yuan injected and 182 billion yuan expired. The overall liquidity supply is neutral, with marginal tightening [30]. - **Monetary Demand**: The net monetary demand from national debt, local debt, and other bonds was 193.14 billion yuan, 152.2 billion yuan, and 405.57 billion yuan respectively last week. The total net monetary demand from the bond market was 750.91 billion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market remained high [33]. - **Fund Price**: The DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 4.9bp, 4.3bp, and 2bp respectively to 1.47%, 1.4%, and 1.33%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 4.1bp, and the CD rate of joint - stock banks rebounded by 3.6bp to 1.63%. The overall fund price rebounded slightly [36]. - **Term Structure**: Last week, the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds changed by 2.2bp, 3.5bp, and 4.2bp respectively; the yields of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year policy - bank bonds changed by 3.2bp, 4.7bp, and 3.7bp respectively. The yield term structure continued to flatten, and the credit spread between treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds widened at the long - end [40]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: As of July 11th, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield changed by 8.0bp to 4.43%, the inflation expectation changed by 4.0bp to 2.37%, and the real interest rate changed by 4.0bp to 2.06%. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread widened by 5.76bp to - 276.54bp, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly by 0.12% [43]. 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real - Estate Demand**: As of July 10th, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.549 million square meters, a significant seasonal decline from 3.329 million square meters in the previous week. The second - hand housing sales also declined seasonally, reaching the lowest level in nearly seven years. The real - estate market sales are generally at a low level, and the financial market expects the introduction of urban renewal policies [45]. - **Service Industry Activities**: As of July 11th, the average daily subway passenger volume in 28 large - and medium - sized cities was 83.91 million, a 0.5% decrease from the same period last year but a 25.2% increase from 2021. The congestion delay index in 100 cities decreased slightly from the previous week. The service industry economic activities are approaching a natural growth and stable level [48]. - **Manufacturing Tracking**: Last week, the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry showed a mixed trend. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by - 0.39%, that of asphalt changed by 1%, that of cement clinker enterprises changed by 0.73%, and that of coke enterprises changed by - 0.3%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand decreased significantly by 0.67% from the previous week [52]. - **Goods Flow**: The goods and passenger flows are at a relatively high level, with strong growth in the postal express and civil aviation sectors. However, the highway and railway transportation are relatively weak, and there is a risk of a seasonal decline in July - August [57]. - **Import and Export**: The logic of the rush - to - export after the Sino - US trade talks is coming to an end, and the port cargo throughput and container throughput have declined significantly. There is a risk of a second decline after the end of the 90 - day tariff exemption period in July - August [60]. - **Overseas**: The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes are still hawkish. Most officials support a rate cut in September due to concerns about the impact of tariffs. The market expects the Fed to cut rates twice in 2025, with a rate cut of about 25 - 50bp, and the rate cut times are expected to be in September and December [62]. 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium was 3.27%, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week, and was at the 65.4% quantile. The foreign capital risk premium index was 4.07%, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous week, and was at the 22.4% quantile. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices are at the 81.1%, 73.9%, 82.9%, and 65.7% quantiles respectively in the past five years, and the attractiveness of the valuations decreased marginally [64][69]. - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to seasonal patterns, the stock market is in a period of seasonal oscillation and growth with structural differentiation in July. The growth style is relatively dominant, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. There is a risk of the market reaching a peak and adjusting in the middle and late July. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM on dips and shorting IF and IH on rallies [72]. - **Financial Calendar**: This week, China will release data on June's currency and real economy. Overseas markets should pay attention to the US June CPI, PPI, retail sales, and the Fed's economic situation beige book, which will affect the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate path [75].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Models Model Name: Industry Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to recommend industry sectors based on medium-term trends and specific market conditions[2][3][10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model identifies sectors that are likely to benefit from current market trends and conditions. - It recommends sectors such as Hong Kong innovative drugs, Hong Kong securities, and photovoltaic sectors due to their potential for reversal and growth. - The model also suggests focusing on technology sectors, including military and communication, as well as A-share banks and gold stocks[2][3][10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in identifying sectors with potential growth and aligning with current market trends[2][3][10] Model Name: TWO BETA Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model focuses on recommending technology sectors based on their beta values and market conditions[2][3][10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the beta values of different sectors to identify those with higher potential for growth. - It recommends technology sectors, particularly military and communication, based on their beta values and current market trends[2][3][10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying high-potential technology sectors based on their beta values[2][3][10] Model Name: Position Management Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to manage stock positions based on valuation indicators and short-term trends[3][10] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses valuation indicators such as PE and PB ratios to determine the stock positions. - It suggests an 80% stock position for absolute return products based on the current valuation levels of the wind All A index[3][10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a balanced approach to managing stock positions based on valuation and market trends[3][10] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Industry Allocation Model**: - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile[3][10] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile[3][10] - **Position Suggestion**: 80%[3][10] 2. **TWO BETA Model**: - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile[3][10] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile[3][10] - **Position Suggestion**: 80%[3][10] 3. **Position Management Model**: - **PE Ratio**: 70th percentile[3][10] - **PB Ratio**: 30th percentile[3][10] - **Position Suggestion**: 80%[3][10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Moving Average Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the distance between short-term and long-term moving averages to identify market trends[2][9][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the 20-day moving average and the 120-day moving average of the wind All A index. - Compute the distance between the two moving averages. - The formula is: $$ \text{Distance} = \frac{\text{20-day MA} - \text{120-day MA}}{\text{120-day MA}} $$ - If the distance exceeds 3%, the market is considered to be in an upward trend[2][9][14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in identifying market trend shifts from a volatile to an upward trend[2][9][14] Factor Name: Profitability Effect - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the market's profitability effect to predict the inflow of incremental funds[2][10][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the profitability effect value based on market data. - The current profitability effect value is 3.50%, indicating a positive market trend[2][10][14] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is useful for predicting the inflow of incremental funds based on market profitability[2][10][14] Factor Backtesting Results 1. **Moving Average Distance**: - **Distance**: 3.04%[2][9][14] - **Profitability Effect**: 3.50%[2][10][14] 2. **Profitability Effect**: - **Distance**: 3.04%[2][9][14] - **Profitability Effect**: 3.50%[2][10][14]

The provided content does not contain any quantitative models or factors, nor does it include their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on market performance, sector analysis, ETF premiums/discounts, institutional activity, and other market-related data. There are no references to quantitative models or factors in the provided text.

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of July 11, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 0.00%, Shenzhen Component Index 6.95%, CSI 300 5.67%, CSI 500 4.79%, CSI 1000 2.28%, CSI 2000 0.00%, ChiNext Index 13.46%, and STAR Market 11.75% [5][24] - The sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include Power and Utilities, Steel, Comprehensive Finance, Pharmaceuticals, and Non-ferrous Metals, while Food and Beverage, Coal, Consumer Services, Automotive, and Oil and Petrochemicals are further away [8][24] Group 2 - A total of 873 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the most significant numbers in Basic Chemicals, Machinery, and Pharmaceuticals [2][13] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in Banking, Comprehensive Finance, and National Defense and Military Industry, with respective proportions of 90.48%, 40.00%, and 33.61% [13] - The manufacturing and cyclical sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 245 and 233 stocks respectively [15] Group 3 - The report identifies 38 stocks that are considered stable new highs, including Shenghong Technology, Beijing North, and Nanhua Futures, with the most in the Manufacturing and Technology sectors [3][21] - The Manufacturing sector had the highest number of new highs, particularly in the National Defense and Military Industry, while the Technology sector saw the most in the Electronics industry [21][25]