Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the "innovation bull market" in 2025 is a positive cycle driven by policy guidance, capital pricing, and industrial implementation, with macro policies anchoring industrial direction and capital markets facilitating value discovery [1][30] - The market liquidity and valuation have improved, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating a positive trading structure and sentiment cycle [1][30] - The initial phase of the "innovation bull" is likely to extend towards financial sectors and technology industries, particularly in areas like robotics, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][30] Industry Insights - In the soft drink industry, companies with strong single-product capabilities are positioned as leaders, with high growth potential in bottled water, sugar-free tea, energy drinks, and electrolyte water [5] - The AI chip market is dominated by Nvidia, with its NVLink technology allowing for high-speed communication between GPUs, while competitors face challenges in matching this technology [6] - The food and beverage sector is seeing a shift towards health-oriented and functional products, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring being highlighted for their strong market positions [5] Company Analysis - JD Group's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Xiaomi Group is expected to benefit from high-end product positioning and global expansion, with a maintained "buy" rating based on its automotive and AIoT business growth [8] - The newly launched "Dazhen" product from Zhenjiu Li Du aims to capture market demand with a competitive price point, indicating a strategic move to enhance market presence [9] - Xpeng Motors' cautious revenue forecast reflects increased R&D costs, yet the company maintains a "buy" rating due to improving gross margins and competitive AI capabilities [10] - Huazhu Group's Q2 results show strong revenue growth driven by a light-asset model, with an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [21]

时间点的选择同样耐人寻味。自8月1日起，宗馥莉便鲜少露面，坊间传言她身处香港或美国。然而，就 在18亿美元信托基金被冻结后，她却频频出手，一系列幕后操作浮出水面。这不禁让人猜测，这位"消 失"的掌门人，正在下一盘更大的棋。 娃哈哈暗流涌动：宗馥莉的重塑之路 娃哈哈天猫旗舰店悄然更名，从"娃哈哈旗舰店"变更为"同源康食品专营店"，这看似简单的举动，实则 预示着一场商业切割正在上演。更令人寻味的是，原店铺背后的实际控制人为杜建英，而新开设的娃哈 哈旗舰店，其背后则是宗馥莉的身影。 一、旗舰店更名背后的暗战 宗馥莉的魄力令人敬佩。她毅然决然地放弃了拥有60多万粉丝的原旗舰店，选择从零开始，重建娃哈哈 在电商平台的形象。这种与杜建英彻底划清界限的决心，非一般人所能及。客服一句轻描淡写的"合作 关系中断"，更是引人深思，其中意味，不言自明。 为扭转颓势，宗馥莉推出了新品"哇小宗"，但市场反应平平。在竞争激烈的无糖茶市场，农夫山泉占据 了70%的市场份额，娃哈哈仅能勉强跻身前八。新品表现不佳，老品持续下滑，娃哈哈正面临着内忧外 患的局面。更棘手的是，公司内部也出现了一些不稳定因素，甚至有员工直接冲进宗馥莉的办公室。变 革 ...

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；食品安全问题；市场竞争加剧。 2025 年 08 月 21 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/8/21 2024/12/20 2025/4/20 2025/8/19 食品饮料 沪深300 软饮料行业深度：后来居上，中国软饮料巨 头的平台化之路 相关研究 《硬折扣系列报告：机遇窗口期，百 舸争流》 2025-07-24 《2025Q2 基金食品饮料持仓分析：持 仓处于低位，白酒明显减配》 2025-07-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 34 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 观过往：历经三大阶段，品类多元化共振。纵向复盘中国软饮料行业的 发展，大致经历了碳酸饮料主导、多元化增长、结构性增长 ...

近日，国际品牌价值评估咨询机构Brand Finance正式发布了《2025年全球食品品牌价值榜》。榜单中， 养元饮品旗下六个核桃作为中国植物蛋白饮料领域的杰出代表，与可口可乐、百事可乐、农夫山泉、东 鹏特饮等国内外知名企业一同荣耀跻身《2025全球软饮料品牌价值50强》。 中国食品产业分析师朱丹蓬指出，六个核桃多次入选国际榜单并实现了排名的大幅跃升，不仅彰显了六 个核桃穿越市场周期、保持稳健发展的强大实力，更是为中国饮料品牌加速迈向国际一流水平提供了有 力的印证，成为中国品牌在全球软饮料舞台上崛起的生动缩影。 健康功能化趋势下，六个核桃的精准布局与市场突围 全球软饮料市场正迎来深刻变革。随着消费者健康意识的全面觉醒，软饮料行业已经向产品创新方向加 速探索。权威机构 BrandFinance的报告进一步印证了这一趋势——健康与功能化已成为品牌价值增长的 核心动力，那些能快速响应需求变化的品牌，正借此实现跨越式发展。数据显示，预计到2025年，中国 植物蛋白饮料市场规模将突破2000亿元人民币，年均增速保持在20%以上。 作为养元饮品旗下的核心品牌，六个核桃长期深耕核桃乳细分领域，始终专注于核桃营养价值的研发与 ...

本土汽水之王大窑，靠烧烤摊和夜市逆袭全国，年营收32亿，市场份额仅次于可口可乐和百事。可近期 根据重庆市监局的公示，美国私募巨头KKR收购了远景国际公司85%的股份，而远景国际经营的碳酸饮 料品牌极有可能就是大窑，官方还未给出明确的回复，网友已经坐不住了，说好的纯民营企业你咋就把 自己给卖了呢？ ...

东南亚市场人口结构年轻、劳动人口占比高，内卷强度提升、消费升级红利显著，能量饮料为软饮料增 速最快的子品类 东南亚六国总人口超6.1亿，其中印尼、越南、菲律宾为人口大国，东南亚人口结构偏年轻化、劳动人 口占比大，30岁以下人口占比超40%，劳动人口占比普遍超50%，人口结构特点适合具备提神充能需求 的能量饮料成长。同时，东南亚整体人均可支配收入中低速增长，消费升级与性价比需求并存。 东南亚常年高温环境为软饮料的发展提供天然基础，2024年东南亚软饮料行业整体零售额约2872亿元， 14-24年CAGR为2.2%，其中越南、菲律宾软饮料行业增长最快的国家。其中，东南亚能量饮料行业为 软饮料增长最快的子行业，2024年能量饮料整体零售额约为306亿元，14-24年能量饮料零售额CAGR为 6.0%。 越南、柬埔寨能量饮料市场领跑，格局分散蕴藏机会 东南亚能量饮料分国家来看可以分成三类市场：1)成长型市场——柬埔寨、越南：越南是能量饮料规模 最大的市场，其次为柬埔寨，同时两国也是能量饮料增长最快的市场，14-24年越南、柬埔寨能量饮料 零售额CAGR均为12%、9%，远快于东南亚能量饮料行业整体。2)成熟型市场—— ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the food and beverage industry Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing significant shifts with emerging trends in health-focused products and innovative marketing strategies [1][2][4][7][10][19] Industry Environment - The baking industry is undergoing a rapid reshuffle, with many well-known brands closing stores due to high rent and labor costs, leading to 95,000 bakery closures in 2024, while the industry still grows at 5.2% to reach 110.5 billion [2] - Tesla's restaurant model achieved $47,000 in sales within six hours of opening, with plans to enter the Shanghai market, although it faces challenges in adapting to local cuisine [2] - The powdered noodle market is expanding, projected to reach 227.5 billion in 2024, with over 1 million stores, emphasizing product innovation and local specialties [4] - The summer beverage market is shifting towards health-oriented drinks, with traditional carbonated drinks being replaced by herbal teas and health drinks, expected to exceed 10 billion by 2028 [4][8] - The carbonated beverage market is intensifying competition, with local brands like Yuanqi Forest and Dajiaolou launching innovative products to capture market share [7] - The GABA beverage market is emerging, with several companies launching products aimed at improving sleep and emotional health, although consumer education remains a challenge [13] - The herbal beverage market is growing rapidly, expected to double in the next three to five years, but faces challenges of formula homogenization [19] Top Brand News - Wudao yogurt has become the top Greek yogurt brand in four years by focusing on a niche market and high-quality production [23] - Haidilao is testing a high-end restaurant model with a price point over 500, indicating a shift towards premium dining experiences [24] - Dongpeng Beverage has successfully penetrated the market by targeting blue-collar workers and optimizing its supply chain [24] - Luckin Coffee is aggressively expanding with a low-price strategy, aiming to surpass Starbucks in China by 2025 [25] - Xiaoguan Tea has rapidly grown in the no-sugar tea market, achieving 2 billion in sales by catering to young consumers [26]

Core Points - The China Securities Index Hong Kong 100 Consumer Index (H100) reported a value of 2694.66 points, showing a monthly increase of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 4.02%, and a year-to-date increase of 17.21% [1] Group 1 - The H100 index is categorized based on the China Securities Industry Classification Standard, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [1] - The index is fully composed of securities listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100% allocation [1] - The industry composition of the H100 index includes 40.82% in food, 32.58% in soft drinks, 15.98% in alcohol, and 10.62% in tobacco [1] Group 2 - The index sample is adjusted biannually, specifically on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] - Adjustments to the index occur in response to changes in the parent index, special events affecting industry classification, or the delisting of sample companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a cautious buy rating to the company [5]. Core Views - The company is the leader in the ready-to-drink coconut water market in mainland China, leveraging a Thai supply chain, dual-brand light asset operation, and strategic partnerships with major distributors to achieve sustained high growth [2][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from $87.44 million in 2023 to $281.96 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.8% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from $26.68 million in 2023 to $106.09 million in 2027, with a gross margin improvement from 30.5% to 37.6% [4]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from $16.75 million in 2023 to $68.12 million in 2027, with a net profit margin increasing from 19.2% to 24.2% [4]. Market Position - The company has maintained a market share of approximately 34% in the coconut water segment in mainland China as of 2024, significantly outpacing its nearest competitor [15][62]. - It ranks as the second-largest company in the global coconut water beverage market [10][62]. Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from a strong supply chain rooted in Thailand, which provides cost advantages and product differentiation that competitors find hard to replicate [32][33]. - The light asset model allows the company to focus resources on product innovation and brand marketing, enhancing operational efficiency [42][43]. Brand Strategy - The dual-brand strategy with "if" and "Innococo" targets different consumer segments, enhancing market penetration and brand recognition [20][24]. - The company has successfully engaged high-profile brand ambassadors to boost brand visibility and sales, with significant sales increases following marketing campaigns [47][48]. Growth Potential - The coconut water market is experiencing explosive growth, driven by increasing consumer awareness of health benefits and a shift towards natural, functional beverages [56][57]. - The company is expanding its market presence beyond mainland China into other Asian markets, with a notable increase in revenue from regions like Hong Kong and Singapore [30][31].

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The industry is currently experiencing a weak recovery in demand, particularly in the liquor sector, driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and infrastructure projects [2] - The industry is at a historical low valuation, with the food and beverage sector's PE-TTM at 21.08x, and the liquor sector at 18.23x, both at the 17th percentile over the past 15 years [13][19] - Guizhou Moutai's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and net profit of 45.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.89% [22][19] - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy policy is expected to boost the consumption of dairy products [30][26] - The beverage sector, particularly Master Kong, is facing challenges due to price increases and competition, but its dividend yield remains attractive [28][26] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry rose by 0.48% in the week of August 11-15, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.70% [6][7] - Among sub-sectors, the highest gains were seen in seasoning and fermentation products (+2.19%) and baked goods (+1.46%), while soft drinks saw the largest decline (-3.12%) [9][10] Liquor Sector - Guizhou Moutai's revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.590 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.24% [22] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth target of around 9% for 2025, with a strong certainty of steady growth [22][19] Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.02 yuan/kg as of August 7, 2025, with a slowing decline trend [30][26] - The new childcare subsidy policy is anticipated to increase the birth rate and subsequently boost dairy product consumption [30][26] Beverage Sector - Master Kong reported a revenue of 40.092 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, but net profit increased by 20.5% to 2.271 billion yuan [28][26] - The beverage segment's revenue was impacted by price increases and intensified competition from delivery platforms [28][26]