2026 年食品饮料行业的展望如何？ 展望 2026 年，我们认为经过几年的深度调整后，行业整体的调整周期将逐步 进入尾声，这是行业能否回升的关键转折点。从库存角度来看，大众品自 2024 年底至今已基本完成去库存过程，而白酒从 2025 年二季度开始进入加 静水深流，大象无形 - 食品饮料行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251222 摘要 2026 年食品饮料行业预计将结束深度调整周期，大众品已基本完成去 库存，白酒预计在 2026 年二季度达到新的平衡点，CPI 企稳回升将缓 解价格通缩压力，具备创新或供应链优化能力的企业将脱颖而出。 白酒板块预计明年二季度左右达到新的平衡，呈现前低后高特征，目前 处于筑底过程，中期配置价值值得重视。大众品受益于效率革命和新旧 动能切换，新兴渠道发展和成本红利将持续。 2025 年食品饮料细分板块表现分化，黄酒、软饮料、乳制品和肉制品 涨幅居前，白酒受高端价格下行挤压影响显著，三季度报表下滑，四季 度延续调整。 CPI 和 PPI 剪刀差震荡，涨价预期较弱，未来 CPI 企稳回升将缓解价格 下行压力。白酒价格均值回到较高水平，未来下行空间有限，企业需维 持量价平衡，预计 ...

去年2月，娃哈哈创始人宗庆后离世，农夫山泉创始人钟睒睒被推上舆论的风口浪尖。从"农夫与蛇"的 叙事，到"媚日包装"的指控，再到"儿子国籍"的质疑，舆情如潮水般涌来，他遭遇人生的至暗时刻。 2025年的钟睒睒，和2024年的钟睒睒相比，判若两人。他变沉默了，很少公开发声。 钟睒睒奋起反击。因为事关个人和企业品牌声誉，他必须反击。 他先是发表长文《我与宗老二三事》，回应"忘恩负义"的传闻，表示"从未在娃哈哈领薪、更谈不上因 冲货被开除"。 在2024年，他可不是这样。 但效果并不十分理想。2024年，农夫山泉一度市值腰斩，包装水市占率连续三月下滑，全年收益暴跌 21.3%。公司不得不在年度财报中，写下"品牌形象遭受了历史性考验"的沉重字句。 这一切，在2025年发生了逆转。 后来，钟睒睒接受央视《对话》栏目两次专访，回应舆论质疑，包括儿子钟墅子的美国国籍问题。他称 儿子已成年，有自己的选择权，澄清其没有股权，承诺农夫山泉永远是中国企业。 当时，他也曾留下一句笃定的预言："天一定会亮。" 2024年11月，钟睒睒又在江西赣州召开媒体交流会，阐述自己的商业理念和价值观，炮轰一些平台的网 络暴力和算法"作恶"，认为它们 ...

美银证券将百事可乐的目标价从155美元上调至164美元，将可口可乐的目标价从80美元上调至85美元。 (格隆汇) ...

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the capital market in 2026 will focus on "structural transformation and confidence restoration, with a complete turnaround in external demand" [4] - The report emphasizes that the risk排雷 is not a bearish outlook but aims to enhance long positions through contrarian thinking [6] - The annual strategy highlights the importance of identifying risks in various industries to better understand market misjudgments and challenges [5] Group 2 - In the liquor industry, the report suggests that the valuation is at a bottom range, making it a good time for allocation, especially with the upcoming Spring Festival sales [10] - The investment logic for the liquor sector is based on the expectation that performance expectations have bottomed out, and the price of Moutai has also reached a low point, signaling a potential rebound [10] - The report recommends focusing on leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as other brands with lower valuations and growth potential [10] Group 3 - The beer industry is expected to see stable volume and rising prices, but the cost advantages are diminishing, presenting seasonal investment opportunities [15] - The investment strategy for the beer sector emphasizes the importance of high-end upgrades driving revenue growth, while cost control will enhance profitability [17] - Recommended stocks include Yanjing Beer and Qingdao Beer, with a focus on companies that can leverage high-end market trends [17] Group 4 - The snack food industry is viewed positively, with ongoing reforms expected to yield results, suggesting active investment [21] - The report highlights that growth opportunities in the snack sector will come from category expansion and new channel penetration, supported by supply chain improvements [23] - Recommended stocks include Weilian Meishi and Yanjin Puzhi, with a focus on companies that are actively adjusting and innovating [23] Group 5 - The soft drink industry is characterized by significant differentiation among segments, with profitability continuing to improve [28] - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of strong product categories and channel capabilities for sustained growth [31] - Recommended stocks include Dongpeng Beverage, with a focus on companies that can capitalize on high-growth segments and enhance channel operations [31] Group 6 - The dairy industry is expected to focus on profitability during the current downturn in raw milk prices, with leading companies likely to see improved margins [40] - The report suggests that the recovery of raw milk supply is crucial for the industry's performance, with a focus on companies like Yili and New Hope Dairy [40] - The key risk is that the supply recovery may not meet expectations, impacting revenue performance [40]

据悉，大窑嘉宾饮品股份有限公司成立于2019年4月，注册资本约1.36亿人民币，经营范围包括食品及 生物工程的技术开发、技术咨询、技术服务等，由上海蒙清企业管理有限公司、李侠、上海政岳企业管 理中心（有限合伙）等共同持股。 近日，据天眼查APP显示，大窑嘉宾饮品股份有限公司发生多项工商变更，其中，大窑汽水创始人王庆 东卸任该公司法定代表人、董事长，戴诚接任法定代表人并担任董事、财务负责人，公司多位高管也同 步发生变更。 ...

Group 1 - The central financial office emphasizes expanding domestic demand as the top priority for next year, highlighting the significance of the domestic demand theme [1] - Nongfu Spring, as a leading soft drink company, has shown resilience despite the impact of price wars on the beverage industry this year [1] - The company's packaged water business has recovered from previous negative publicity, continuously expanding market share this year [1] Group 2 - The operational focus of Nongfu Spring has shifted back to red bottle natural water from green bottle purified water, with the no-sugar tea business maintaining a strong revenue growth rate [1] - The company is accelerating penetration into lower-tier markets, further gaining market share, while products like NFC juice, carbonated tea, and health water are enhancing consumer engagement [1] - In terms of profitability, the company is expected to maintain stable earnings due to ongoing cost advantages and strong expense management without engaging in chaotic price competition [1] Group 3 - Digital initiatives such as the 1 yuan enjoyment program have strengthened the company's digital operations, enhancing connections with channels and consumers [1] - The company is expected to continue its upward trajectory in future developments, supported by a solid foundation as a platform-based enterprise [1] - The target price for Nongfu Spring has been raised from HKD 56.37 to HKD 59.23, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Huanlejia has shown significant growth this year, with a year-to-date increase of 114.86%, and recent trading activity indicates continued interest from investors [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Huanlejia's stock price decreased by 2.37% to 32.60 CNY per share on December 22, with a trading volume of 3.08 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 2.39% [1]. - The stock has increased by 17.52% over the last five trading days, 46.06% over the last 20 days, and 68.39% over the last 60 days [2]. - The company has appeared on the stock market's "龙虎榜" (top trading list) six times this year, with the most recent appearance on December 16 [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Huanlejia Food Group Co., Ltd. is located in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, and was established on December 12, 2001, with its stock listed on June 2, 2021 [2]. - The company's main business includes the research, production, and sales of canned fruits, plant protein beverages, fruit juices, and lactic acid bacteria beverages, with revenue composition being 55.73% from beverages, 38.66% from canned goods, and 5.61% from other products [2]. - Huanlejia belongs to the food and beverage industry, specifically in the soft drink sector, and is associated with concepts such as plant protein, mid-cap stocks, margin financing, historical highs, and rural revitalization [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Huanlejia reported a revenue of 1.042 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 22.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.53 million CNY, down 87.43% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 477 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 346 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, Huanlejia had 18,600 shareholders, a slight decrease of 0.11%, with an average of 20,802 circulating shares per shareholder, which increased by 0.11% [2].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector Outlook**: The consumer sector is expected to face challenges in the first half of 2026 due to the tapering of the trade-in policy, which may lead to a slowdown in durable goods consumption. However, service consumption is showing strong internal momentum, with growth expected in sectors like elderly care and home services, which may receive more policy support [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Consumer Data Trends**: In November 2025, retail sales growth fell to 1.3%, the lowest of the year, primarily due to the early Double Eleven promotions, the impact of the trade-in policy, and weakened consumer confidence due to falling housing prices [2][3]. - **Trade-in Policy Impact**: The decline in the trade-in policy is anticipated to negatively affect consumer spending in early 2026, particularly in durable goods like home appliances and automobiles, which are expected to see continued low growth [3][21]. - **Service Consumption Growth**: Service retail growth has increased from 4.9% at the beginning of the year to 5.4%, with significant contributions from education and dining sectors [4]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on the AI industry and emerging sectors like pet economy and trendy toys. Real estate is expected to recover by 2026-2027, benefiting related industries [1][6][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - **High-End Consumption and Travel Chain**: The service sector in 2026 will focus on high-end consumption and travel, with recommendations for companies in the duty-free, hotel, aviation, and dining sectors, such as China Duty Free Group and hotel chains like Jin Jiang and Huazhu [7]. - **Overseas Expansion Opportunities**: Companies like Anker Innovations and Huakai 100 are recommended for their potential in overseas markets, despite current low stock prices [9][10]. - **Alcohol and Beverage Sector**: The alcohol sector is currently in a low season, but some brands are seeing price recovery due to channel control measures. The soft drink market is also expected to show potential growth despite current sales being slow [11][12][13]. - **Food and Beverage Trends**: The snack sector is seeing positive demand ahead of the Spring Festival, with health-oriented products like konjac and oats showing significant growth. Companies like Wancheng and Yanjinpuzi are highlighted for investment [12]. - **Investment in New Consumption Areas**: The new consumption sector is showing upward trends, particularly in the vaping and AI glasses markets, with companies like Smoore and Kangnai Optical recommended for their growth potential [16]. Conclusion - The consumer sector is navigating a complex landscape with both challenges and opportunities. The focus on service consumption, emerging sectors, and strategic investments in high-potential companies will be crucial for navigating the anticipated economic conditions in 2026.

Core Viewpoint - The management transition at Dayao Beverage Co., Ltd. marks a significant structural change, with founder Wang Qingdong stepping down and handing over control to KKR's representative, Dai Cheng, indicating a shift towards capitalization and potential IPO plans [3][5][6]. Group 1: Management Changes - On December 16, Dai Cheng was appointed as the legal representative and chairman of Dayao, replacing Wang Qingdong, who has been at the helm for decades [5][19]. - Wang Qingdong may retain a minority stake but has transferred absolute control to the investors, signaling a major shift in governance [5][19]. - The board of directors has been significantly reduced from seven members to two, with Dai Cheng and a new supervisor, Jiang Yaqi, indicating a consolidation of power [7][22]. Group 2: Capitalization and IPO Plans - Dayao is reportedly preparing for an IPO, with plans to raise up to $500 million (approximately 3.657 billion RMB), which would support market expansion and brand nationalization [6][20]. - KKR's acquisition of an 85% stake in Dayao is seen as a pivotal event in the beverage industry, reflecting a strategic partnership rather than mere foreign investment [7][22]. - The involvement of KKR suggests that Dayao is entering a critical phase aimed at enhancing its operational efficiency and preparing for public listing [7][22]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - Dayao's sales predominantly come from fragmented channels like barbecue stalls and hot pot restaurants, which KKR views as a valuable asset [8][22]. - Despite its stronghold in certain markets, Dayao faces challenges in national expansion, particularly in southern regions where it has struggled to penetrate [10][24]. - The company is also experiencing product challenges, as its attempts to diversify into tea and energy drinks have not met market expectations, and it continues to rely on traditional flavoring methods that may not align with current health trends [10][24][26]. Group 4: Historical Context - Dayao's origins trace back to the 1980s, with significant developments occurring under Wang Qingdong's leadership, including the establishment of the Dayao brand in 2006 [12][26]. - The current transition represents a critical juncture in Dayao's history, as it seeks to evolve from a traditional beverage company to a more diversified brand management entity [13][26].

据统计，活动首日便吸引近千名参与者，以花溪大学城学生为主。"活动很有趣，茉莉奶绿的茶香和奶 香搭配得刚刚好，已经推荐给室友了。"现场一名学生的反馈道出不少参与者的心声。不少人还在社交 媒体分享体验，通过"体验+分享"模式，让产品特色精准传递，同时拉近品牌与消费者的情感距离。 12月20日，阿萨姆茉莉奶绿在花溪大学城思雅美食广场开启"茉莉绽放 好心情乐园"快闪活动，以沉浸 式体验与清新产品，为校园周边夜间消费场景注入活力，精准激活区域消费潜力，响应城市消费提质扩 容号召。 本次活动将产品特色与音乐、互动游戏、手工DIY深度融合，分下午、晚上两个时段开展，环节紧凑亮 点纷呈。活动以暖场彩排拉开序幕，主持人通过趣味问答科普产品核心优势：精选高山绿茶为基底，搭 配进口奶源，成就清甜不腻、入口回甘的独特口感，让"一口轻松享，顺滑好心情"的品牌主张深入人 心。问答间隙，工作人员持续发放试饮装及定制礼品，让参与者直观感受产品魅力。晚间的歌曲串烧、 舞蹈表演及本土乐队演绎将氛围推向高潮，乐队在互动中推荐产品，让茉莉风味与欢快旋律相得益彰。 此次活动选址精准契合贵阳贵安夜间经济及校园周边消费场景发展方向。周边商户反馈，活动期间 ...