Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, while energy-intensive industries continue to decline, with a PMI of 47.0%[6][19] Group 2: Service and Construction Sectors - The service sector PMI slightly increased to 50.2%, driven by the "May Day" holiday effect, with significant activity in tourism and hospitality[31][32] - The construction sector PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion due to housing demand constraints, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35][36] - Special bonds issuance in May reached 443.2 billion yuan, significantly higher than April's 230.1 billion yuan, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the temporary easing of China-US trade negotiations led to the release of previously postponed production demand, driving the PMI to rise. However, there is still uncertainty about the tariff outlook, and the recovery of new orders is relatively slow. The domestic off - season effect is becoming more prominent, and the contribution of domestic demand to new order growth has decreased compared to April [3][9]. - For the bond market, the fundamental conditions still provide support. Considering the historical experience of trade frictions from 2018 - 2019, there may be fluctuations in subsequent tariff policy negotiations. The uncertainty of external conditions may affect expectations, production, and inventory - stocking intentions and rhythms. The "rush - to - export" elasticity in May is not significantly higher than that in April, and the year - on - year increase in May's exports may be lower than expected. In the traditional off - season, the potential for unexpected growth in domestic demand in May is limited, so the bond market is still supported. Attention should be paid to the data verification in June and potential "expectation gaps" [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: External Disturbances Ease, PMI Moderately Recovers 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Tariff Disturbances Ease, Production Accelerates Recovery - In May, production increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 50.7%, returning to the expansion range. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in mid - May slowed the decline in exports, and the demand for existing foreign trade orders was released in an orderly manner, accelerating the production and procurement rhythms compared to April. The procurement volume index increased by 1.3 pct month - on - month to 47.6%, and imports increased by 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.1%, with the decline significantly narrowing [16]. - Demand stabilized in May, and new orders improved moderately. New orders increased by 0.6 pct month - on - month to 49.8% but remained in the contraction range. After the easing of trade negotiations, export orders recovered marginally, reducing the contraction of new orders. However, the difference between "new orders - new export orders" narrowed, and domestic demand orders decreased due to the off - season, which may limit the recovery of new orders [19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: Negotiations Ease, New Export Orders are Concentratedly Released - In May, the easing of tariff negotiations led to the release of overseas order increments. New export orders and imports increased by 2.8 pct and 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.5% and 47.1% respectively, with their elasticity restored. Combining the month - on - month changes in April and May, both were better than the same period in previous years, indicating a wider improvement in the foreign trade prosperity of manufacturing enterprises in May [26]. 3.1.3 Price: External Disturbances Narrow, Price Decline Slows - In May, the impact of the traditional off - season became more evident, and the prices of upstream bulk commodities remained weak, causing prices to decline slightly. The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price both decreased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 46.9% and 44.7% respectively. Although the price continued to weaken marginally, the narrowing of external disturbances slowed the price decline [31]. 3.1.4 Inventory: Increased Procurement Boosts Raw Material Replenishment, and Products are Rapidly De - stocked - In May, with the acceleration of procurement, raw material inventories increased, and downstream de - stocking accelerated. The easing of the negotiation situation accelerated the shipment of downstream exports, and finished product inventories decreased by 0.8 pct month - on - month to 46.5%. As the production rhythm recovered, the material procurement volume increased month - on - month, and raw material inventories increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 47.4% [35]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: The Drag of Real Estate Construction May Continue to Expand, and the Service Industry during the Holiday Season Shows Many Highlights - In May, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 pct. Among them, the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 50.2%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 51.0%, with the expansion continuing to slow due to the drag of real estate construction demand [36]. 3.2.1 Construction Industry - In May, the construction industry PMI continued to decline, while infrastructure demand further strengthened. The new export orders of civil engineering construction rose above 60%, significantly driving the industry PMI to climb for two consecutive months and reach above 62%. The easing of trade negotiations boosted the acceleration of overseas infrastructure investment to some extent. However, the overall construction industry PMI continued to decline, indicating that the activity rhythm of the housing construction industry may have further contracted in May [2][36]. 3.2.2 Service Industry - Holiday consumption boosted the improvement of the service industry PMI. In May, the expansion of the service industry PMI accelerated slightly. The production and new order indices of the information service industry maintained strong expansion. The release of consumption demand during the May Day holiday significantly increased the month - on - month PMI of railway, air, and water transportation industries. The accommodation and catering industries rose above the boom - bust line, ending three consecutive months of contraction [2][36].

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

高技术制造业PMI连续四个月保持在扩张区间 5月份制造业PMI比上月有所回升。从13个分项指数来看，同上月相比，生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单 指数、积压订单指数、采购量指数、进口指数、原材料库存指数、从业人员指数和生产经营活动预期指数上 升，指数升幅在0.2至3.7个百分点之间。 产成品库存指数、购进价格指数、出厂价格指数和供应商配送时间指数下降，指数降幅在0.1至0.8个百分点之 间。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出现回升，表明在多项 政策综合效应下，企业预期趋向改善，生产经营活动有回暖迹象。 制造业PMI数据出炉。 5月31日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示，5月制造业采购经理指数（制造 业PMI）为49.5%，综合PMI产出指数为50.4%，分别比上月上升0.5和0.2个百分点，均比上月改善。非制造业 商务活动指数为50.3%，今年以来连续保持在50%以上，保持扩张。 分析认为，5月份制造业PMI指数出现回升，表明加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现，非 制造业继续在扩张区间平稳运行，细分指数变化显示，投资、消费 ...

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装备制造业生产指数较上月上升超过4个百分点，升至54%以上，连续10个月保持在50%及以上。 随着稳增长政策落地显效，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）较上月回升，制造业景气水平有所改善，经济 运行回稳。 国家统计局5月31日发布的数据显示，5月份，制造业PMI为49.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点；非制造业 商务活动指数为50.3%，比上月下降0.1个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.4%，比上月上升0.2个百分 点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业生产经营活动预期指数为52.5%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业企业对近期市场发展信心总体 保持稳定。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，5月份PMI指数出现回升，表明加紧实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策综合成效已开始显现。生产指数、采购量指数、新订单指数均出现回升，表明在多项政策综 合效应下，企业预期趋向改善，生产经营活动有回暖迹象。同时也要注意到，价格指数仍小幅回落，表 明市场供大于求格局仍较突出，需求收缩导致的宏观经济总量失衡尚未改变。 张立群强调，要着力加强和巩固经济回升向好的基础，特别要通过政府公共产品投资力度持续加大，显 著增加市场需求，增加企业订 ...

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