| | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年07月01日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 锰硅 | な☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ☆☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面下探回升。螺纹表需短期趋稳，产量继续回升，库存去化放缓。热卷需求回落，产量维持高位，库存稍有累积。目前 高炉仍有利润，铁水产量维持相对高位，负反馈预期有所缓解，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，基建回暖缺乏持续 性，地产销售低位徘徊，投资、新开工等指标继续大幅下滑，6月PMI回升至49 ...

市场消息：印度4-5月铁矿石产量同比增长0.6%。 ...

2025年07月01日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：情绪利好，价格坚挺 | 5 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 7 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 9 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 9 | | 碳酸锂：仓单矛盾缓解，偏弱运行 | 11 | | 工业硅：上游工厂开始复产，盘面或回调 | 13 | | 多晶硅：关注实际现货成交情况 | 13 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 15 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 22 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 25 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 27 | | LLDPE：短期震荡为主 | 29 | | PP：现货震荡，成交偏淡 | 31 | ...

| | | | | 铁矿石早报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 | | 2025/7/1 | | | | | 现货 | | | | 远期 | | | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | 普氏62指数 | | 94.40 | 1.10 | 0.60 | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 703 | 0 | 1 | 750.8 | 91.55 | -0.15 | 0.45 | -33.81 | | | PB粉 | 708 | 1 | 0 | 748.1 | 93.70 | -0.05 | 0.10 | -13.08 | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 691 | 1 | 0 | 755.1 | 89.65 | -0.15 | 0.50 | -9.50 | | | 金布巴 | 660 | 1 | 0 | 746.3 | 85.90 | -0.15 | 0.35 | - ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2509 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 供需格局平稳，矿价延续震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来改善，淡季钢厂生产积极，矿石终端消耗维持高位，需求韧性表现尚可，给 予矿价强支撑。与此同时，港口到货和矿商发运均迎来回落，多因财年末冲量结束后外矿供应如期收 缩，但整体维持相对高位，关注后续降幅情况，相应的内矿生产恢复积极，已重回年内高位，矿石高 位趋稳 ...

点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Repor ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency has maintained an AA rating for the company, indicating strong operational capabilities and significant resource advantages in iron ore and lithium mining, despite facing challenges related to capital expenditure and market conditions [2][4]. Company Overview - The company is a leading player in iron ore mining in China, with substantial production capacity and cost advantages, ranking high in profitability and operational efficiency [2][4]. - As of the end of 2024, the company's iron ore reserves have increased significantly, with lithium resources also ranking among the top in the industry, indicating strong growth potential [3][16]. Financial Performance - The company's total assets reached 158.11 billion yuan, with equity attributable to shareholders at 65.12 billion yuan, and total debt at 75.55 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase [2][3]. - The operating income for the company was 40.58 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.25 billion yuan, indicating a decline compared to previous periods [3][4]. - The EBITDA margin was reported at 44.57%, showcasing the company's ability to maintain profitability despite market pressures [3][4]. Market Conditions - The iron ore market is expected to face downward pressure due to weak demand from the steel industry, with iron ore prices likely to decline further [4][9]. - The company is experiencing challenges in the downstream steel market, with reduced demand for its products, particularly pellets, leading to lower production utilization rates [4][11]. Investment and Capital Expenditure - The company is under significant capital expenditure pressure due to ongoing mining projects, particularly in the lithium sector, which require substantial investment and have long construction periods [4][6]. - The company has adjusted its fundraising plans to allocate more resources to lithium projects, indicating a strategic shift towards diversifying its resource base [6][8]. Competitive Position - The company maintains a competitive edge in the iron ore sector, with a strong resource base and established relationships with major steel manufacturers [4][16]. - The company’s lithium resources are positioned to become a significant part of its portfolio, enhancing its market position in the growing battery materials sector [16][18]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency has a stable outlook for the company, anticipating continued operational strength and cash flow stability, despite the challenges posed by market conditions [4][9]. - The company is expected to leverage its resource advantages to navigate the competitive landscape effectively, with a focus on enhancing production efficiency and expanding its market share [4][16].

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the issuance of convertible bonds by Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd., detailing the bond's terms, the company's financial performance, and the management of the raised funds. Group 1: Bond Overview - The issuer is Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd., which changed its name from Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd. on July 31, 2024 [2]. - The total amount raised from the issuance of convertible bonds is RMB 1.52 billion, with each bond having a face value of RMB 100 [3][4]. - The bonds have a six-year term, with a fixed interest rate that increases annually from 0.30% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company produced 3.7666 million tons of iron concentrate and 1.0501 million tons of pellets, generating total revenue of RMB 3.843 billion [20]. - The net profit for the year was RMB 751 million, with earnings per share of RMB 0.51 [20]. - The company's total assets increased by 9.67% year-on-year, reaching RMB 15.42 billion by the end of 2024 [21]. Group 3: Fund Utilization - The raised funds are allocated to various projects, including RMB 243.93 million for the iron selection technology transformation project and RMB 462.65 million for the intelligent mining mechanization upgrade project [18][24]. - The company plans to adjust the use of remaining funds to implement a lithium carbonate project, reflecting a strategic shift towards the lithium mining sector [24]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company had an unused balance of RMB 728.36 million from the raised funds [24]. Group 4: Management and Oversight - The trustee, Guodu Securities, has established a monitoring mechanism to oversee the issuer's credit status and the use of raised funds [19]. - The trustee has ensured compliance with the bond issuance regulations and has reported on the issuer's significant events and financial obligations [19][20].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-06-30 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 关注央行季度例会的变化，删除"择机降准降息" 观点分享： 6 月 27 日，央行发布 2025 年二季度货币政策委员会例会通稿，与一季度相比，通稿的 一些变化值得关注。在政策基调上，例会删去了"把实施扩大内需战略同深化供给侧结构性 改革有机结合起来"，并增加了"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置，统筹好总供给和 总需求的关系"这一表述。；在货币政策思路上，删去了"择机降准降息"，增加了"灵活 把握政策实施力度和节奏的表述"；汇率表述上，删去了"加强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周 期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置"的表述。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★★★★ | 铜：价格上涨，主要因微观和宏观形成阶段性共振。铜现货依然偏紧，国内库存低位，LME 库存快速回落，现货持续升水。海外逻辑对价格拉动作用更加明显，美国经济存在底部支 撑，且特朗普对铜存在加征关税的预期，推动 COMEX 铜价涨幅明显，与 LME 铜价差扩大 至 1400 美元/吨附 ...

12/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (50) 0 50 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/6/30 地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 93.30 0.55 0.25 纽曼粉 703 8 0 750.8 91.70 1.00 0.95 -35.10 PB粉 707 7 -3 747.0 93.75 0.85 0.35 -14.58 麦克粉 690 7 -3 754.0 89.80 0.95 0.90 -11.72 金布巴 659 7 -3 745.2 86.05 1.05 0.80 -19.73 主流 混合粉 643 5 -10 765.1 82.75 0.90 0.95 -7.01 超特粉 601 6 -3 807.9 79.55 0.90 0.95 -15.83 卡粉 805 10 0 742.1 104.75 0.85 0.75 -6.21 巴西 巴混 741 7 -3 749.8 96.50 1.10 1.05 - ...