Group 1 - The non-ferrous sector is experiencing a rebound, with companies like Hunan Gold and Northern Rare Earth seeing significant gains, while the non-ferrous mining ETF is also up over 2% [1] - Precious metals faced a historic downturn due to trading congestion and external pressures, with silver and gold experiencing maximum daily declines of over 30% and 10% respectively [1][14] - Short-term volatility is expected in precious metal prices due to profit-taking, but long-term trends indicate that the de-dollarization process will continue, suggesting that the current adjustment is not the end of the precious metal rally [1][18] Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining index has shown a strong performance over the past year, with a return of 146.48% and a maximum drawdown of -13.76% [3] - The index focuses on the upstream mining segment of the non-ferrous metal industry, with copper, gold, and aluminum making up over 58% of its composition [5] - Historical performance indicates that the non-ferrous mining index has a cumulative increase of 353.53% over the past decade, with an annualized return of 16.83% [10][12] Group 3 - The market outlook for 2026 suggests that central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings will continue to support gold prices, while copper prices are expected to find support amid supply disruptions [19] - The aluminum market is facing downward pressure due to seasonal factors and a decline in processing activity, with a reported drop of 1.5 percentage points in aluminum processing [19]

华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4981.85美元/盎司，环比1月23 日+35.60美元/盎司，涨幅为0.72%。周内伦敦白银价格为103.19美元/盎司，环比1月23日+4.19美元/盎 司，涨幅为4.23%。本周LME铜收盘价13440美元/吨，环比1月23日+460美元/吨，涨幅为+3.54%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 贵金属：短期贵金属巨震，但是年内仍将降息支撑贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4981.85美元/盎司，环比1月23日+35.60美元/盎司，涨幅为0.72%。周内 伦敦白银价格为103.19美元/盎司，环比1月23日+4.19美元/盎司，涨幅为4.23%。 数据方面，美国11月耐用品订单环比初值5.3%，前值-2.1%，预期3.8%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(下 限)3.5%，前值3.5%，预期3.5%。美国美联储FOMC利率决策(上限)3.75%，前值3.75%，预期3.75%。美 国1月24日当周首次申请失业救济人数20.9万人，前值20万人，预期20.5万人。美国12月PPI同比3%，前 值3%，预期2.8%。 本周美联储议息会议维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No clear - stated core view in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price Performance - **Precious Metals and Commodities**: London gold's latest price is 4714.75 with a change of - 267.10; London silver's change is noted as 127 (unit unclear); London platinum is at 2300.00 with a change of - 492.00; London lithium is 1820.00 with a change of - 286.00; WTI crude oil is 62.14 with a change of - 3.07; LME copper is 12507.50 with a change of - 768.50 [1] - **Currencies and Bonds**: The latest dollar index is 97.61 with a change of 0.50; euro - to - dollar is 1.18 with a change of - 0.01; pound - to - dollar is 1.37 with a change of - 0.00; dollar - to - yen is 155.60 with a change of 0.83 [1] Trading Data - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: COMEX silver inventory is 12618.61 with a change of - 5.88;上期所白银库存is 462.62 with a change of 7.55; gold ETF持仓is 1087.10 with no change;白银ETF持仓is 16546.59 with a change of 1023.23;上金所自银库存is 506.49 with no change [1] Precious Metals Ratios - **Gold - related Ratios**: There are graphs showing gold - crude oil ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - platinum ratio, and platinum - aluminum ratio over different time periods from 2016 - 2025 [1] - **Other Ratios**: COMEX - London spread and import profit ratios for gold and silver are presented in graphical forms [1] Other Graphs - **US Treasury Rates and Spreads**: Graphs show the relationship between US Treasury yields (including 10 - year TIPS), Treasury spreads, and London spot gold prices from 2016 - 2026 [4] - **ETF Holdings and Inventories**: Graphs display the changes in COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventories, as well as gold and silver ETF holdings from 2016 - 2026 [4] - **Shanghai Gold Exchange Positions and Deliveries**: Graphs show the positions and deliveries of gold and silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange from 2016 - 2025 [4] - **Shanghai Gold Exchange Deferred Fees**: Graphs present the payment directions of gold and silver deferred fees at the Shanghai Gold Exchange from 2017 - 2025 [4] - **COMEX Non - commercial Long Positions**: Graph shows the proportion of non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold and silver from 1986 - 2024 [4]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Precious Metals and Commodities - **Key Focus**: Gold prices, U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and commodity market dynamics Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Surge**: Gold prices surpassed $5,500, reflecting heightened global concerns over U.S. economic and political uncertainties, prompting some countries to consider increasing gold allocations, which undermines the dollar's reserve status [1][10][11] 2. **Federal Reserve's Policy Impact**: New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's potential policies may lead to interest rate cuts, but his hawkish stance on balance sheet reduction adds market uncertainty. This could trigger liquidity crises or market shocks, increasing risks [1][6][11] 3. **Investor Behavior**: The significant influx of ETF funds indicates strong retail and individual investor participation in gold, making it a liquidity and sentiment-driven asset [2][3] 4. **Geopolitical Factors**: Increased geopolitical uncertainties have driven demand for safe-haven assets like gold, although the timing of these impacts remains unpredictable [3][6] 5. **Decoupling of Fundamentals**: Traditional factors influencing gold prices, such as real interest rates, have decoupled from gold price movements, suggesting that market expectations and speculative behavior are now more significant drivers [4][5] 6. **U.S. Debt Concerns**: U.S. debt faces challenges such as high interest payment pressures and low foreign ownership, leading investors to diversify into gold. The perception of U.S. debt as a safe asset is being reevaluated [8][9] 7. **De-dollarization Process**: The de-dollarization process is gradual, with some countries selling U.S. debt and buying gold, but others continue to increase their U.S. debt holdings, indicating a complex and slow transition [9][11] 8. **Commodity Market Dynamics**: The commodity market is experiencing structural supply-side shortages, influenced by macro narratives and policy changes. The nomination of Warsh may lead to a broad market downturn, but fundamental differentiation could lead to rebounds [15][16] 9. **Energy Market Opportunities**: There are marginal recovery opportunities in the energy market due to OPEC's production delays and geopolitical risks, despite current oversupply conditions [22] 10. **Copper Market Outlook**: The copper market is expected to see price increases, with projections for 2026 placing prices between $11,000 and $12,000, driven by limited new capacity and demand dynamics [19] Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: The current situation mirrors past instances of inflation and economic turmoil, where aggressive monetary policy was required to restore confidence in the dollar and U.S. debt [12] 2. **Long-term Economic Balance**: The U.S. faces challenges in balancing low inflation, low interest rates, and maintaining dollar hegemony, with historical precedents suggesting that aggressive rate hikes may be necessary but politically challenging [13] 3. **Investment Risks**: Investors in commodities should be cautious of consensus expectations, which can lead to limited trading opportunities and increased risks if market narratives shift [23] 4. **Real Estate Market Changes**: Recent policy changes in the real estate market have positively impacted transaction volumes, but the overall market remains sensitive to inventory issues and economic conditions [24][25][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, focusing on the implications for the gold market, U.S. monetary policy, and broader commodity market dynamics.

Copper - Copper prices have stabilized slightly overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining an import window closure status [3][13] - The US ISM manufacturing index for January rose to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since February 2022, driven by robust growth in new orders and output [3][13] - China's January manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 50.3, with sales prices increasing for the first time in 14 months [3][13] - LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 174,675 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 1,859 tons to 525,967 tons [3][13] - The market is facing short-term price pressure due to weak fundamentals, accumulating inventory, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival, with potential support testing in the range of 95,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [3][13] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.91% to $17,045 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.83% to 132,670 yuan per ton [14][15] - LME inventory decreased by 756 tons to 285,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 302 tons to 46,574 tons [14][15] - Despite market sentiment dragging prices down, there are concerns about tight resource supply, which may support boundary costs [14][15] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - The price of alumina showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan per ton, up 1.18% [16] - SHFE aluminum experienced a decline, with AL2603 closing at 23,520 yuan per ton, down 2.12% [16] - Recent regional alumina maintenance has led to supply disturbances, causing inventory to gradually accumulate [16] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,795 yuan per ton, down 1.18% [17] - Polysilicon prices also fell, with the main contract closing at 47,050 yuan per ton, down 1.66% [17] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, impacting overall supply [17] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures dropped to 132,440 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices falling by 7,500 yuan to 160,500 yuan per ton [18] - Weekly production decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 670 tons [18] - The market sentiment is currently negative, with prices under pressure, but strategic stocking demand from downstream may provide some support [18]

新湖期货认为，黄金价格中长期支撑仍存，指出沃什获提名及由此引发的汇率波动属于短期扰动，中期市场焦点仍将集中于地缘政治风险升温与特朗普政 府政策的高度不确定性；而长期来看，全球债务可持续性恶化与去美元化趋势的深化，是支撑黄金结构性走强的核心变量。目前，上述中长期逻辑并未发 生根本性逆转。 仍有机构在市场恐慌中，坚持长期看多有色金属板块，中信证券指出，在经历2025年的大涨行情后，有色金属价格与股票行情的上涨动能依然充足，供应 扰动、需求局部高景气和囤货行为为金属价格带来强支撑，流动性宽松带来的交易活跃度上升以及地缘冲突带来的避险情绪升温有望放大金属的价格弹 性。看好贵金属、工业金属、电池金属和战略金属板块的配置价值。 今日（2月3日）现货黄金开盘反弹，截至发稿，重回4800美元/盎司，日内涨超3%。分析指出，量化基金去杠杆化、杠杆ETF和趋势跟踪策略头寸调整所 引发的强制抛售潮，其主体部分可能已基本释放。 消息面上，特朗普称正在与伊朗对话。当地时间2月2日，针对伊朗问题，美国总统特朗普表示，美方已向相关地区调动大型军舰，同时与伊朗保持沟 通，"将观察事态如何发展"。 尽管近期黄金价格大幅波动，但美银仍将其看作对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [11]. Core Insights - The domestic copper inventory is beginning to decrease, which may lead to stronger prices [6]. - The gold market is expected to stabilize and rise further due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The aluminum supply remains rigid, supporting the investment outlook for the aluminum sector [11]. - Tin prices are expected to be supported by tight supply conditions [11]. - Antimony prices are rebounding after a six-month decline, indicating potential investment opportunities [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown significant performance with a 1-month increase of 22.6%, a 3-month increase of 35.7%, and a 12-month increase of 128.5% [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices reached $4981.85 per ounce, with a week-on-week increase of $35.60, or 0.72%. Silver prices were $103.19 per ounce, up $4.19, or 4.23% [4]. Copper and Aluminum - Copper prices closed at $13,440 per ton on the LME, up $460 per ton, or 3.54%. SHFE copper closed at ¥103,170 per ton, up ¥2,120, or 2.10% [6]. - Domestic aluminum prices were ¥24,640 per ton, with a week-on-week increase of ¥510 [7]. Tin and Antimony - Domestic refined tin prices were ¥423,630 per ton, down ¥110, or 0.03%. The supply and demand for tin are weak, leading to a price fluctuation around high levels [9]. - Antimony prices remain supported due to tight supply conditions, with current prices at ¥160,000 per ton [10]. Recommended Stocks - For the gold sector, recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International. In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining. For aluminum, recommended stocks are Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12].

Group 1: Copper Industry - The market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March 2026 is low; short-term declines in gold and silver may negatively impact overall commodity sentiment [5] - Cable companies' operating rates have rebounded week-on-week, but demand may weaken as the Spring Festival approaches; copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - The supply-demand tightness in 2026 remains unchanged, and there is continued optimism for copper price increases [5] Group 2: Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX plans to deploy one million computing power satellites, further expanding the commercial aerospace demand space [5] - The manufacturing and launch capabilities of reusable rockets are fundamental for large-scale constellation construction [5] - Laser communication networks are key to achieving large-scale inter-satellite communication [5] Group 3: Jiuri New Materials (688199.SH) - Jiuri New Materials expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21 to 31.5 million yuan in 2025, turning from loss to profit year-on-year [5] - The company anticipates a net profit of 14.4 to 21.6 million yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, also turning from loss to profit year-on-year [5] - The recovery in the price of photoinitiators and the gradual production of new projects are solidifying the company's leading position in the industry [5] Group 4: Keda Manufacturing (600499.SH) - Keda Manufacturing is planning a major asset restructuring to acquire 51.55% of the shares of Tef International, aiming to hold 100% of the shares post-transaction [7] - The transaction is expected to significantly enhance the company's net profit attributable to shareholders [7] Group 5: Tesla (TSLA.O) - Tesla's total revenue for 2025 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year to $94.83 billion, while the Non-GAAP net profit fell by 26.4% to $5.86 billion [8] - In Q4 2025, Tesla's total revenue decreased by 3.1% year-on-year and 11.4% quarter-on-quarter to $24.9 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit decline of 16.4% year-on-year to $1.76 billion [8] Group 6: Apple (AAPL.O) - Apple's FY1Q26 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series and the continued penetration of AI features [8] - Despite rising storage costs, Apple managed to maintain and even increase its gross margin through product mix optimization and high-margin service business [8] Group 7: Ausnutria (1717.HK) - Ausnutria is expected to see a 1.1% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, with a slowdown in growth primarily due to domestic milk powder business challenges [9] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to remain flat year-on-year, with a decline in H2 2025 profits due to slower internal code adjustment progress and intensified industry competition [9]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metal prices are under pressure due to trading congestion, the new Federal Reserve Chairman, and declines in US tech stocks [1][2] - The nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to significantly impact the dollar and US Treasury yields [2] - Central bank gold purchases and rising gold ETF holdings are projected to support gold prices through 2026 [1][2] - London silver leasing rates have decreased, while US silver inventories are declining rapidly [1][2] Group 2: Copper - The nomination of hawkish Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman is leading to expectations of balance sheet reduction and a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on copper prices [3] - The market is expected to continue digesting macroeconomic correction pressures, but supply disruptions and an anticipated widening global copper mine deficit may provide price support [3] Group 3: Aluminum - Macro sentiment has cooled, leading to downward pressure on aluminum prices due to tightening liquidity from falling US stocks and short-term policy tightening expectations [4] - The aluminum processing comprehensive operating rate has decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 59.4% compared to the previous week [4] - Seasonal inventory accumulation during the off-peak period is expected to further suppress aluminum prices [4] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices have significantly corrected due to a retreat in macro sentiment and liquidation by bullish funds [5] - The return to normalcy in Indonesian RKAB approvals and increased activity in exchanges, along with high ore prices, have alleviated supply concerns [5] - Tin prices are shifting from a "panic-driven" phase to a "supply-demand normalization" phase [5] Group 5: Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate inventories continued to decline, indicating strong demand despite seasonal production decreases [6] - Anticipated reductions in battery export tax rebates may lead to front-loaded battery demand, maintaining robust off-peak demand [6] - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while cobalt companies are extending into electric new downstream sectors to enhance competitive barriers [6] Group 6: Rare Earths - Prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxides are continuously rising due to tight supply-demand dynamics and pre-holiday stocking needs [7] - The investment value of rare earths as a strategic resource is viewed positively [7] Group 7: Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have surged due to policy regulation and replenishment, driven by crackdowns on illegal mining and strong pre-holiday stocking [8] - Supply constraints and high costs are expected to keep tungsten prices elevated despite potential volume reductions during the Spring Festival [8] - Uranium prices are anticipated to rise due to rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [8]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market experienced a significant adjustment, with copper prices dropping sharply due to macroeconomic factors and profit-taking, despite the underlying fundamentals for copper remaining strong [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 2, the main copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 9.01% during the day session and continued to decline by 2.41% in the night session [1]. - The non-ferrous metal index of the China Securities Index fell by 8.02%, with the copper sector dropping by 8.32%, leading to major companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper hitting their daily limit down [1]. - Analysts expect copper prices to continue a wide fluctuation pattern in the short term, but the long-term fundamentals remain unchanged, indicating potential for price increases [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global copper supply is projected to grow at a rate of only 2% to 2.5% by 2026, while demand is expected to increase by approximately 3% due to growth in sectors like renewable energy and AI [3]. - The supply side remains tight, with limited new projects globally, and disruptions in production schedules, such as delays in the Mirador copper mine, further complicating the supply outlook [2][3]. - Demand for copper is expected to remain stable, with potential growth in the energy storage sector, particularly due to the increasing use of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which require more copper than other types [2]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, market risk preferences are shifting, and the demand from traditional manufacturing sectors is not showing significant seasonal patterns, leading to expectations of price corrections [5][4]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop may encourage downstream inventory replenishment, particularly in sectors related to green energy consumption [5]. - The upcoming implementation of new consumer subsidy policies in the home appliance sector may provide a boost to copper demand [5].