所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-15 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-15 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 习近平：要树立和践行正确政绩观 观点分享： 期货研究 据学习小组报道，中央经济工作会议上，习近平总书记着重强调"要树立和践行正确政 绩观"，现实指向性鲜明。向外看，中国向世界展示了从容自信："打出了中国人的志气骨 气底气，彰显了我们的硬核实力，赢得了国际社会尊重。"向内观，"对投资下滑，既要高 度重视也要沉着冷静。从基本实现社会主义现代化的要求来看，无论投资于物还是投资于人 都有广阔空间。""面对国际风云变幻和各种风险挑战，我们要保持战略定力，坚定不移把 自己的事情办好。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★★★★ | 铜：铜价周五夜盘大幅回调，主要因高位价格对利空敏感度增强。甲骨文被曝部分数据中心 推迟至 2028 年竣工，博通财报也加剧了投资者对 AI 的焦虑，使得部分多头获利平仓。从长 期基本面看，AI 算力中心建设是趋势，且相关的电力投资增速将提高，能够持续带动铜等材 料的新增消费量。在定价层面 ...

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年12月14日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：高位风险增加，价格暂时调整 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：89000-95000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 国内电解铜现货升贴水快速回落 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-11 2024-12 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 2025-05 2025-06 2025-07 2025-08 2025-09 2025-10 2025-11 202 ...

Core Insights - The price of storage chips has been continuously rising since October, with several storage-related stocks doubling in value [1] - Recent visits to the Huaqiangbei electronics market in Shenzhen revealed that the price of DDR memory modules has doubled in the past two weeks, with some stores experiencing a 33% drop in computer assembly volume due to rising prices [1] - Although the recent surge in storage chip prices has eased, there has still been a 5% increase over the past two weeks [1] - Experts attribute the current rise in storage prices primarily to the global demand for AI-related computing power centers, which has increased the market demand for high-end memory and squeezed the low-end storage capacity of major manufacturers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for power equipment, particularly transformers, is increasing due to the growth in overseas markets and rising prices of key raw materials like copper [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, the company's revenue reached 5.194 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.25% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 486 million, up 20.27% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 456 million, an increase of 19.05% [1] - The third quarter revenue was 2.040 billion, reflecting an 8.38% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 221 million, up 21.71% [1] - As of the end of the third quarter, total assets amounted to 10.233 billion, a 6.42% increase from the end of the previous year [1] Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin improved to 26.08%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 9.29%, up 0.94 percentage points [1] - Operating cash flow turned positive, achieving a net cash flow of 178 million, a significant improvement from a loss of 87.157 million in the same period last year [1] Business Segments - The renewable energy sector, particularly wind power, saw a revenue increase of 71.21%, while the power generation and supply business grew by 35.10% [2] - The data center segment experienced explosive growth, with revenue reaching 974 million, a staggering increase of 337.47%, accounting for 18.75% of total revenue [2] Market Trends - The global demand for AI data center construction is expected to drive significant growth, with projections indicating an increase in installed capacity from 7 GW in 2024 to 59 GW by 2028, representing a CAGR of 73% [3] - The commercialization of large models like ChatGPT is expected to further accelerate the demand for computing power, propelling the AIDC sector into a high-growth phase [3] Future Developments - The company plans to issue convertible bonds totaling 1.672 billion for projects related to data center power modules and energy-efficient power equipment [3] - The company has completed the design and production of a prototype solid-state transformer (SST) for a future high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power supply architecture, with testing and certification expected to be completed by Q4 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 26.89% in the first three quarters of 2025, reaching 8.076 billion yuan, and a net profit of 1.788 billion yuan, also up by 26.21% [1][2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.811 billion yuan, a 26.21% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 592 million yuan, reflecting a 29.49% growth [2] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 33.99%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 22.15%, down by 0.14 percentage points [3] Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 8.18%, a decrease of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year. The breakdown of expenses includes sales (0.78%), management (2.62%), R&D (5.65%), and financial expenses (-0.87%) [4] - R&D expenses increased by 38.57% year-on-year, while financial expenses decreased significantly due to increased foreign exchange gains [4] Business Segments - The tire mold business remains stable, benefiting from a recovery in overseas investments by Chinese tire companies, with production expansions in Thailand and Mexico to meet global demand [5] - The demand for large components is strong, driven by the construction of AI computing centers and a booming gas turbine market, with full order books for gas turbine components [5] - The CNC machine tool business is entering a high growth phase, with a 145% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, particularly in five-axis machines [5] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 2.513 billion, 3.048 billion, and 3.634 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 13 times [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.076 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.89%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.788 billion yuan, up 26.21% year-on-year [2] - The company's profitability remains stable, with a gross margin of 33.99%, a slight decrease of 0.95 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 22.15%, down 0.14 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The demand for large components is strong, and the CNC machine tool business is opening new growth opportunities. The tire mold business remains stable, while the large component machinery products benefit from the booming gas turbine market. The CNC machine tool business saw a significant revenue increase of 145% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, the total revenue is projected at 7.166 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.612 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 34.33% [1] - The company forecasts a total revenue of 11.103 billion yuan for 2025E, with a year-on-year increase of 25.97%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated at 2.513 billion yuan, a growth of 24.95% [1][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is projected to be 3.14 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.48 based on the current price [1][5]