1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price cannot continue to rebound. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. However, due to the rising market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price still shows a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range approximately between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 27, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 79,190 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,820 yuan/ton and closed at 78,850 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,420 - 79,670 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 - 260 yuan/ton over the current 2509 contract, and an average premium of 170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market trading sentiment was weak, and the spot premium was expected to remain in a stalemate [2] Important Information Summary - **Overseas Macro**: New York Fed President Williams said it was appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time, strengthening the market's expectation of future easing. US Treasury Secretary Besent said there were 11 "very strong" candidates for Fed Chair, and the selection would be announced this fall. The Trump administration was studying plans to exert more influence on the 12 regional Fed banks [3] - **Mine End**: First Quantum Minerals Ltd. shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in Zambian copper mines due to a $1 billion gold deal that eased balance - sheet pressure [3] - **Smelting and Import**: PT Freeport Indonesia expected to complete the maintenance of its joint - venture smelter in East Java in early September. The Gresik smelter, a joint venture with Mitsubishi Materials, had been under maintenance for a month and consumed about 40% of the copper concentrate output from the Grasberg mine, with an annual cathode copper production capacity of 342,000 tons [4] - **Consumption**: In July, China's copper strip processing industry continued to decline. The consumption demand at the terminal decreased, orders shrank, and the capacity utilization rate continued to decline. Among 29 sample enterprises, the total copper strip output was 141,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The average capacity utilization rate was 83.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 975 tons to 156,100 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,630 tons to 21,287 tons. On August 27, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 123,000 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to conduct buy - hedging on dips, with the buying range approximately between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] - **Arbitrage**: Put on hold [7] - **Options**: short put@77000 yuan/ton [7] Data Table The report provides data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profit, and the Shanghai - London ratio from August 21, 2025, to August 28, 2025, covering multiple aspects such as SMM 1 copper, premium copper, flat - water copper, and more [25][26][27]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in its lithium business, despite facing challenges in its copper operations [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.292 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.41% [3]. - Total operating revenue reached 167.711 billion yuan, marking an 11.50% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The overall gross margin for mineral products increased by 3 percentage points to 60.23%, attributed to rising prices and cost optimization [3]. Group 2: Lithium Business - Zijin Mining's lithium production saw a remarkable increase, with carbonate lithium output reaching 7,315 tons, a staggering growth of 2,961% year-on-year [1]. - The significant growth in lithium production was primarily due to the inclusion of Zangge Mining in the consolidated financial statements, which contributed 5,170 tons from the Qarhan Salt Lake [1]. - The company plans to proceed with its lithium projects cautiously, focusing on cost management, with the first phase of the lithium salt lake project in Argentina expected to commence production in September 2025 [4]. Group 3: Copper Business Challenges - The company faced setbacks in its copper operations, particularly at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where multiple seismic events led to flooding and halted mining activities [3]. - As a result of these challenges, the annual copper production forecast was revised down from 520,000-580,000 tons to 370,000-420,000 tons [3]. - The company is currently focused on dewatering efforts to restore production, which is expected to take considerable time [3]. Group 4: Gold Business Strategy - Zijin Mining plans to spin off its major gold assets, which include eight world-class gold mines located in South America, Central Asia, Africa, and Oceania, reflecting its confidence in increasing gold investments [4]. - The company aims to achieve a gold production target of 100-110 tons by 2028, which is strategically significant for its growth [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8] Core Views - The current copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price still cannot recover continuously. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. However, due to the rising market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price remains in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper price operations, with the buying range roughly between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On August 26, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,600 yuan/ton and closed at 79,190 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 79,420 yuan/ton, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 80 - 180 yuan/ton, with an average of 130 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decline from the previous day. The spot price was 79,480 - 79,690 yuan/ton. The downstream's acceptance of high copper prices is low, but holders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the downward space for spot premiums is expected to be limited [2] Important Information Summaries - **Tariffs and Fed News**: Trump said trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea were completed, and he will soon impose "high" tariffs on imported furniture, possibly up to 200%. Trump removed Fed理事 Lisa Cook, but Cook said Trump has no right to do so, and the Fed spokesman said the president can only remove a governor for "just cause" [3] - **Mine - end News**: Capstone Copper's Pinto Valley copper mine in Arizona obtained Copper Mark certification. First Quantum Mining shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in Zambian copper mines due to a $1 - billion gold deal that eased balance - sheet pressure [4] - **Smelting and Import News**: US metal traders are transshipping scrap copper to China through Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam to avoid China's 10% import tariff. China's direct imports of scrap copper from the US dropped sharply, but overall imports remained stable. The net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds declined, but the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is still strong [5] - **Consumption News**: The domestic refined copper rod enterprise's operating rate rose 1.20 percentage points to 71.80% last week, mainly driven by the resumption of production of previously - overhauled enterprises. Downstream consumption is weak, and the overall market is lackluster. The raw material inventory decreased by 2.31% to 3.38 million tons, and the finished - product inventory decreased by 5.44% to 6.61 million tons [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 375 tons to 155,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 830 tons to 22,917 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons to 12.30 million tons on August 25 [7] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, recommend buy - on - dips hedging with a buying range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton - **Arbitrage**: Suspended - **Options**: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8]

Core Insights - The core point of the article is the financial performance of Codelco, Chile's state-owned copper company, which reported a significant increase in copper production but a substantial decline in net profit for the first half of the year [1] Group 1: Production Performance - Codelco's copper production for the first half of the year reached 634,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The net profit for Codelco in the first half of the year was $116.6 million, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 58% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage investment rating: On hold [7] - Option investment rating: short put@77,000 yuan/ton [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Although the downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong, due to the increased market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices remained relatively strong on Friday. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range around 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Market**: On August 25, 2025, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 78,710 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,690 yuan/ton, up 1.27% from the previous trading day's close. The overnight opening price was 79,600 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 79,640 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon closing price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 80 - 220 yuan/ton, with an average of 140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price was 79,270 - 79,520 yuan/ton. After entering the next - month invoice, it is expected that the trading will slow down, and the spot premium of Shanghai copper may remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro - level**: Fed Chairman Powell's speech increased the market's bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and the US has included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list [3] - **Mine - end**: The Asian Development Bank will provide $410 million in financing for Barrick Mining's Reko Diq copper mine in Pakistan. Codelco's El Teniente copper mine has partially restarted operations [4] - **Smelting and Import**: Amid the Sino - US trade war, US metal traders are transshipping scrap copper through third - countries to avoid China's 10% import tariff. China's direct imports of scrap copper from the US have dropped significantly, but the overall import volume has remained stable [4] - **Consumption**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 1.20 percentage points to 71.80%, mainly driven by the resumption of production of previously overhauled enterprises. The overall downstream consumption is weak, and it is expected that the operating rate will decline next week. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased slightly, and it is also expected to decline next week [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 375 tons to 155,975 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 401 tons to 23,747 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons to 12.30 million tons [6] Strategy - **Copper**: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range around 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton [7] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7] - **Option**: short put@77,000 yuan/ton [7] Data Table - The table shows the price, basis, inventory, warehouse receipt, arbitrage, import profit, and other data of copper on August 26, 2025, August 25, 2025, August 19, 2025, and July 27, 2025 [24][25][26]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - Copper prices rose with increasing volume, hitting a new high in August. With the release of a potential interest - rate cut signal by Powell at the global central bank meeting and the relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai, the market's bullish sentiment was high. In the short term, supported by a stronger fundamental outlook and growing expectations of a Fed interest - rate cut, copper prices are expected to break through the range, and attention should be paid to the previous high resistance level [10] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices soared on high volume, reaching an August high. The LME was closed, and COMEX copper edged up. The market's bullish sentiment was strong. The monthly spread structure on the futures market slightly narrowed. Spot prices rose by 565 to 79,395, while the spot premium dropped by 10 to 140. Social inventories decreased by 0.87 million tons to 12.3 million tons compared to last Thursday, which supported the spot premium [10] 2. Industry News - Codelco announced that the Andes Norte and Diamante mines of the El Teniente copper mine in Chile have been approved to resume production by the mining regulator Sernageomin after a suspension due to an accident on July 31 [11] - According to the ICSG report, after adjusting for inventory changes in Chinese bonded warehouses, the supply surplus in June was 42,000 tons, down from 58,000 tons in May. In June, the global copper market had a supply surplus of 36,000 tons, down from 79,000 tons in May. Global refined copper production in June was 2.43 million tons, and consumption was 2.4 million tons [11] - Luoyang Molybdenum's 2025 H1 financial report showed that the company's mining revenue reached a record high of 39.402 billion yuan, accounting for about 42% of total operating revenue, up 11 and 28 percentage points from the same periods in 2024 and 2023 respectively. The proportion of copper - related mining revenue also reached a record high. With the help of the TFM and KFM projects, the company produced 353,600 tons of copper in H1, a year - on - year increase of 12.68%, and achieved about 56.1% of the annual production target. The copper mining revenue was 25.718 billion yuan, accounting for about 65% of the total mining revenue, up 1 and 31 percentage points from the same periods in 2024 and 2023 respectively [11]

Core Viewpoint - China Gold International (02099) has seen its stock price rise over 7%, reaching a historical high of 96 HKD, driven by strong mid-year performance and positive production outlook [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a sales revenue of 580 million USD, an increase of 178.36% year-on-year [1] - Mining operating profit reached 277 million USD, reflecting a significant increase of 1443.71% year-on-year [1] - Shareholder profit amounted to 200 million USD, a turnaround from a loss of 31.67 million USD in the same period last year [1] Production Metrics - Total gold production for the first half of the year was 2.74 tons, up 69% year-on-year [1] - Total copper production reached 35,000 tons, marking a 231% increase year-on-year [1] - Both gold and copper production exceeded 50% of the annual guidance [1] Future Expansion Potential - The company’s Jiama mine has significant expansion potential, with the Yulong tailings project expected to be operational by mid-2027, increasing daily processing capacity from 34,000 tons to 44,000 tons [1] - There is a possibility of further increasing processing capacity to 50,000 tons per day, pending safety permit approvals [1] - Exploration activities in the Bayi Ranch and Zhegu Langbei areas have shown substantial resource potential, supporting future expansion plans [1]

News Summary Group 1: Company Developments - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine has received approval from the mining regulator Sernageomin to resume operations at Andes Norte and Diamante, while Recursos Norte and Andesita remain closed [1] - The copper rod production rate increased to 71.80% during the week of August 15-21, up 1.2 percentage points week-on-week, but down 8.75 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Copper raw material inventory decreased by 2.31% week-on-week to 33,800 tons due to maintenance-related production cuts at some copper rod enterprises [1] - Finished product inventory fell by 5.44% to 66,100 tons following a temporary improvement in downstream orders after a drop in copper prices [1] - Domestic copper inventory saw a slight increase but remains at low levels, while LME copper inventory has accumulated [2][3] - The market liquidity has improved due to the return of imported copper and domestic supply [3] - Downstream consumption has not shown a turning point, but the demand for replenishment has increased as copper prices decline [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong outlook due to anticipated demand increases in the upcoming peak season, despite current pressures on spot premiums [3]

（原标题：Codelco上调El Teniente矿难损失预估至3.4亿美元） 智利《信使报》8月20日报道，智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）表示，因Teniente矿 区作业停摆，预计损失将达3.4亿美元。该矿区产量将较原计划减少3.3万吨，即从34.9 万吨降至31.6万吨。销售收入将减少3.21亿美元，可变成本减少8800万美元，致销售利 润下降2.33亿美元，此外计入停产区域固定成本，致使总损失达3.4亿美元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts has converged, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 75%. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a three - year high, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks have put pressure on the market. Domestically, the A - share market's risk appetite may have reached a short - term peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery. [2][3] - Most commodities are expected to show a volatile trend. Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile, waiting for Powell's speech. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and other metals are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina are expected to oscillate, and lithium carbonate is in a game - based volatile stage. Crude oil is expected to be weak after a short - term technical correction, and agricultural products such as soybean meal and palm oil are also expected to fluctuate. [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, a three - year high, with inflation pressure increasing. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have dampened the market's expectation of a September rate cut. The dollar has risen, and the US bond yield has increased. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market weakened after a high opening on Thursday, with the trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion. The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market has a chance to recover. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold futures on COMEX fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce, and silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce. The better - than - expected US PMI data and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on gold prices. The market is waiting for Powell's speech, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will remain volatile. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract maintained a volatile trend. The US manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but there are concerns about long - term demand after the tariff policy. The Fed's internal differences remain large, and the Codelco has lowered its copper production forecast. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20590 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased. The good performance of the US and European manufacturing PMIs has improved the overseas demand expectation. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the current range. [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 3124 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The supply is slightly increasing, and consumption is stable. It is expected that alumina will continue to show a weak - oscillating trend. [10] 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on zinc prices. However, the decline in zinc prices has led to increased downstream purchases, and it is expected that zinc prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. [11] 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The inflow of delivery goods has led to a slight decline in inventory, and the inverted price difference between refined and scrap lead provides support for lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [12] 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract showed a weak - oscillating trend. The supply of tin ore and scrap tin is tight, and the low LME inventory provides support, but consumption is weak. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [13] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract rebounded from a low level. The supply is marginally loose, and the demand side has different performances. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. [14][15] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a game - based volatile stage. Although the spot market has improved, the supply increase may exceed the demand, and it is recommended to wait and see. [16][17] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost pressure of nickel iron has eased slightly, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. The cost of nickel sulfate is high, and the demand has resilience. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to Powell's speech. [18][19] 3.12 Crude Oil - Crude oil oscillated strongly. Geopolitical factors are heating up, and it is expected that oil prices will be weak after a short - term technical correction. [20] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract both declined. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The market expects the state reserve to release soybeans in November, and it is expected that the domestic soybean meal will oscillate in a range. [21][22] 3.14 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of August increased slightly, and Indonesia's inventory in June continued to decline. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust. [23][24] 3.15 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver on August 22, 2025. [26] 3.16 Industry Data Perspective - The document presents the data changes of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, gold, silver, and related products including steel, iron ore, and agricultural products from August 20 to August 21, 2025, including prices, inventories, and price differences. [27][32]