澳大利亚上市的Capstone Copper股价一度下跌6.8%，为11月21日以来最大跌幅，之前该公司表示智利 Mantoverde矿的四个工会之一的Union#2将从1月2日起采取罢工行动。在罢工期间预计Mantoverde将继 续以最高正常产量30%的水平运营。公司仍愿意参加会议以达成决议。工会代表了大约50%的 Mantoverde员工，占员工总数的22%。（智通财经） ...

| | | | 美国虹吸效应下，铜价重心上移 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 铜市场综述 | 3 | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 3 | | 第二部分 | 供应扰动增加 | 5 | | 第三部分 | 消费端 | 16 | | 一、 | | 新兴消费高速增长 16 | | 二、 | 传统消费收缩 | 23 | | 三、 | 消费端总结 | 26 | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡表 | 26 | | 免责声明 | | 28 | 有色金属研发报告 铜 12 月报 2025 年 12 月 31 日 美国虹吸效应下，铜价重心上移 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2025 年铜价先跌后涨，重心不断上移，全年涨幅近 40%。1-3 月铜价 缓慢上行，4 月初短线快速下跌，最低跌至 8105 美元/吨，6 月收复前期的 全部跌幅。9 月下旬铜价突破年度压力位 10160 美元/吨，10 月 29 日价格 首次 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Suspended [8] - Options: Sell put options [8] Core Viewpoints - Currently, driven by funds, the prices of metals like silver and copper have deviated significantly from fundamentals. Due to short - term supply bottlenecks, prices are supported, but there's a risk of price decline due to reduced year - end positions [8]. - High copper prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and the industry is expected to remain weak in the short term [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 30, 2025, the opening price of the main SHFE copper contract was 97,020 yuan/ton, closing at 98,090 yuan/ton, a 0.78% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The overnight session opened at 99,140 yuan/ton and closed at 99,220 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 330 yuan/ton to a premium of 150 yuan/ton against the main contract, with an average premium of 240 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 97,190 to 98,050 yuan/ton. The market was quiet, and it's expected to remain so on the last trading day of the year, with a possible slight narrowing of the spot discount [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed's December meeting minutes showed agreement on a rate cut, but there was in - depth debate on economic risks. The committee will start buying short - term Treasury bills to maintain sufficient reserve supply and remove the total limit on standing repo operations [3] - **Mine End**: The Indian Supreme Court suspended a previous ruling on redefining the Aravalli Mountains, which aims to clarify protection and mining restrictions. The court will review the case on January 21, 2026, and the suspension of new mining leases remains in effect [4] - **Smelting and Import**: Starting from January 1, 2026, the provisional import tariffs for various copper products will be 0, unchanged from 2025 [5] - **Consumption**: The operating rates of refined copper rod and copper cable enterprises decreased. Under the influence of high copper prices, downstream procurement was weak, and inventories showed different trends. Next week, the operating rates of both industries are expected to decline slightly [6] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,450 tons to 149,475 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,860 tons to 71,738 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 214,800 tons on December 30, a change of 21,200 tons from the previous week [7] Strategy - For copper, downstream enterprises are advised to conduct on - demand hedging at current prices and increase buying hedging when prices fall to 95,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [8] - Arbitrage operations are suspended [8] - For options, sell put options [8]

智利《信使报》（电子版）12月23日报道，2025年以来铜价屡创新高，目前已达到 创纪录的每吨1.2万美元，铜价有望创下自2009年以来最大的年度涨幅。一些分析师认 为未来铜价还会继续上涨，原因是全球范围内多个重要铜矿供应发生中断，如印度尼 西亚的格拉斯伯格铜矿和智利的埃尔特尼恩特铜矿。 （原标题：铜价再创新高） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, driven by funds, the prices of silver and copper have risen significantly, deviating from the fundamentals. Due to the short - term supply bottleneck, the price may not fall immediately. However, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the reduction of year - end positions. Downstream enterprises are advised to conduct on - demand hedging at the current copper price and not over - hedge excessively. If the price falls to the range of 94,000 yuan/ton to 95,000 yuan/ton, they can increase the intensity of buying hedging. Arbitrage should be postponed, and options should sell put options [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 98,310 yuan/ton and closed at 98,860 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 97,020 yuan/ton and closed at 96,060 yuan/ton, down 2.83% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the Shanghai copper spot market was in a discount pattern. The quotation range was from a discount of 400 yuan/ton to a premium of 260 yuan/ton, and the average premium increased slightly. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the short - term large - discount situation was expected to continue [2]. Important Information Summary - In terms of the Fed, Trump criticized Powell and considered suing him. Geopolitically, Trump met with Zelensky, and both sides said the talks had made progress but did not make major announcements [3]. Mine End - Aeris Resources received approval to develop the Constellation copper - gold project in the Cobar Basin, Australia. The project has proven and probable ore reserves of 2.3 million tons and a total mineral resource of 7.6 million tons [4]. Smelting and Import - Since last week, the average price of Yangshan copper premium bill of lading was 53.4 US dollars/ton, up 4.4 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The average price of warehouse receipts was 53.6 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The EQ copper CIF bill of lading average price was 11 US dollars/ton, down 0.8 US dollars/ton week - on - week. As of December 24, the import loss was about 1,400 yuan/ton. The Yangshan copper premium was expected to strengthen after a short - term stability [5]. Consumption - In the week of December 27, 2025, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 60.73%, down 2.34 percentage points month - on - month. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was expected to drop to 55.28%, and that of cable enterprises to 60.35% [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by - 1,550 tons to 154,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 7,231 tons to 65,878 tons. On December 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 214,800 tons, a change of 21,200 tons from the previous week [6]. Price and Related Data - The report also provides data on TC price, SMM1 copper premium and discount, refined - scrap price difference, copper import profit and loss, copper main contract position and trading volume, etc. It also shows the price and basis data of copper at different times (today, yesterday, last week, one month) [8][27][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the price of electrolytic copper may show an inverted "V" trend throughout the year. It may fluctuate strongly in the first half of the year, challenging new highs, and weakly in the second half. The volatility of copper prices is expected to converge to a limited extent, and call options remain highly suitable. The main influencing factors include the Fed's monetary policy, Sino - US relations, changes in copper concentrate TC, and energy storage demand [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Copper Market Review - In 2025, copper prices showed a generally strong and fluctuating trend. By December 10, the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract had risen by nearly 25% during the year. The copper futures market went through four stages: in the first stage (January - March), the first wave of price increase was driven by the tightening supply of copper concentrate and the market's expectation of rising US inflation. In the second stage (April - mid - September), after hitting bottom, the price rebounded and then consolidated for a long time, affected by trade wars, Fed rate - cut expectations, and other factors. In the third stage (late September - mid - November), the second wave of price increase occurred due to the supply shortage of copper concentrate and positive market news. In the fourth stage (mid - November - present), the price repeatedly broke through historical highs, driven by market concerns about the Fed's future policies [7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Outlook 3.2.1 Fed Policy May Remain Loose - In 2025, the Fed's policy experienced multiple adjustments, including rate cuts and the end of the balance - sheet reduction plan. Looking ahead, according to the dot - plot after the December meeting, there is still one rate cut expected in 2026 and 2027. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will continue to expand its balance sheet and the independence of the Fed after Powell's term ends [11][12]. 3.2.2 Sino - US Game Will Continue - In 2025, Sino - US tariff disputes went through several rounds of escalation and mitigation. The US used tariff hikes as a bargaining chip. In the future, Sino - US tariff disputes are expected to continue, and the US may focus on issues such as fentanyl and rare - earth exports [13][15]. 3.3 Demand Side: Emerging Demands Show Obvious Increases and May Explode in 2026 3.3.1 Traditional Industries Have Limited Growth - **Real Estate Remains in a Downturn**: In 2025, despite a series of policies, real - estate investment, new construction, and completion data continued to decline. In 2026, although the government will continue to promote real - estate stability policies, the real - estate market is expected to continue to drag down copper demand in the short term [16][19]. - **White Goods Production and Sales First Strong Then Weak**: In 2025, with the support of the "trade - in" policy, white - goods production and sales were strong in the first half of the year but weakened later. In 2026, with the possible continuation of the policy and the replacement cycle, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales of three major white goods is expected to be higher than in 2025. However, the year - on - year growth rate of exports of white goods has declined overall compared to last year, and its contribution to copper demand growth has weakened [23][24]. 3.3.2 Emerging Demands Will Gradually Become the Main Force of Copper Demand - **AI and Computing Power May Boost Future Power Grid Demand**: In 2025, power and grid infrastructure investment showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. In the future, AI and computing - power industries will become important demand drivers for power and grid infrastructure [29]. - **New - energy Vehicles Provide Stable Increases Despite Slower Growth**: In 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales maintained a relatively high year - on - year growth rate, providing stable copper demand. In 2026, although the subsidy for new - energy vehicle purchase tax will be halved, the year - on - year growth rate of production and sales is still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32][34]. - **Photovoltaic Installation in China Has Stable Increases and Exports Are Impressive**: In 2025, due to policy changes, there was a "rush - to - install" phenomenon in the first five months, and the year - on - year growth rate of cumulative new installations and cumulative installations showed an inverted "V" trend. In 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of photovoltaic installation may be lower than in 2025 but will still be high. Photovoltaic cell exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate [35][37]. - **Energy Storage Demand May Explode**: In 2025, the new energy - storage installation volume in China is expected to increase by 24% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected to reach 230GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate close to 70%. Globally, the new energy - storage installation volume in 2026 is expected to reach 480GWh, with a year - on - year growth rate of 60%, providing significant copper demand growth [44][47]. 3.4 Supply Side: Mine - end Shortage Persists, and Smelter Production Cuts May Expand 3.4.1 Frequent Overseas Mine Incidents Lead to Continuous Decline in Copper Concentrate TC - In 2025, overseas copper mines experienced many incidents, causing copper concentrate TC to decline continuously. CSPT called on domestic smelters to jointly cut production in the fourth quarter. In 2026, the global copper concentrate increment is expected to be 45 - 56 tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The shortage of copper concentrate will persist in the first half of 2026, and TC may remain at a very low level [49][62]. 3.4.2 Copper Mine Shortage Has Limited Impact on the Smelting End - In 2025, although copper concentrate was in short supply, the global and Chinese electrolytic copper production basically maintained the highest level in the same period of the past five years. In 2026, the shortage of copper concentrate may be difficult to ease in the first half of the year, and the domestic smelting industry may have a larger - scale joint production cut than in Q4 2025 [63]. 3.4.3 The Siphon Effect of US Copper Continues, and Spot Supplies of Shanghai and London Copper Are Tight - In 2025, due to factors such as tariffs, COMEX copper was at a significant premium, leading to a change in the global copper trade pattern. Copper flowed into the US, causing the inventory of COMEX copper to rise continuously, while the inventory of Shanghai and London copper decreased, resulting in a long - term tight spot supply and high prices [68][70]. 3.4.4 High Copper Prices Pressure Downstream Demand, and Social Inventory Remains at a High Level - In 2025, electrolytic copper social inventory increased to a high level in September, but it had little pressure on copper prices, which were mainly driven by macro factors and low copper concentrate TC [77]. 3.5 Future Outlook and Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.5.1 Global Copper Concentrate Supply - Demand Balance Remains Tight - In 2025, the global copper concentrate supply - demand balance was expected to be - 35 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 40 tons, with the supply gap widening compared to 2025. The shortage will persist in Q1 2026 and gradually ease in the later quarters [79][80]. 3.5.2 Electrolytic Copper Supply - Demand Balance - **Global**: In 2025, the global electrolytic copper supply - demand balance was in a tight state at - 5 tons. In 2026, it is expected to be - 21 tons, with the gap widening. - **China**: In 2025, the supply - demand balance of Chinese electrolytic copper was - 20.04 tons, with the gap nearly doubling compared to 2024. In 2026, it may decline slightly to - 30 tons, with the gap widening slightly compared to 2025 [81][83].

铜周报 黄蕾 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2025 年 12 月 29 日 市场情绪高涨，铜价延续上行 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周铜价延续上行，主因美国三季度GDP增速好于预期， 美联储下一任主席人选或将于近期公布，特朗普表示其必 须站在拥护降息的鸽派立场上，而鲍威尔或将在明年5月 卸任后提前辞去理事职位，美元指数走势疲软提振金属市 场，另一方面，央行连续第10个月加量续作MLF保持市场 流动性充裕，楼市政策将于明年进一步松绑；基本面来看， 海外精矿供应紧缺依旧，非美地区货源偏低，国内社会库 存低位下探，现货消费受到抑制，内贸现货贴水扩大，近 月盘面C结构 ...

南财智讯12月29日电，江西铜业股份（00358.HK）发布须予披露交易公告，于2025年12月24日，公司 全资附属江铜香港投资与SolGoldplc董事会就以全现金方式收购SolGold全部已发行及将要发行的普通股 股本达成协议。基于公告日期已发行的SolGold股份总数及已授出购股权计算（不包括江铜香港投资已 持有的股份），本次交易最高总对价不超过7.64亿英镑。本次收购将以每股28便士的现金对价进行，资 金来源包括江铜香港投资现有现金资源及法国兴业银行提供的贷款融资。收购事项尚需获得SolGold股 东批准，并满足或豁免相关条件，包括法院会议及股东大會决议通过、英格兰及威尔士高等法院裁决及 向英国公司注册处交付法院命令副本等。若完成，江铜香港投资将持有SolGold全部股本，SolGold将成 为江西铜业股份间接全资附属公司，其财务业绩将并入公司合并报表。董事会认为，此次交易条款公平 合理，符合公司及股东整体利益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly, leading to a major acquisition by Jiangxi Copper, which purchased a world-class copper-gold mine in Ecuador for approximately 8 billion RMB, potentially doubling its copper production in the future [1][10] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Jiangxi Copper acquired the Cascabel mine in Ecuador, which has over 10 million tons of copper reserves and several million ounces of gold, marking a strategic move to enhance its resource base [1][10] - The acquisition price was set at 28 pence per share, with Jiangxi Copper making three price increases before the formal offer on December 24 [1] Group 2: Financial Risks - Simultaneously, Jiangxi Copper faced significant losses in the domestic futures market, estimated at nearly 4 billion RMB, which is equivalent to half the value of the mine it just acquired [3][5] - The company held an average net short position of about 40,000 contracts in the copper futures market during the fourth quarter, leading to substantial floating losses as copper prices soared [5][6] Group 3: Operational Challenges - Jiangxi Copper's self-produced copper is only about 200,000 tons annually, which is insufficient for its refining capacity, forcing it to rely heavily on purchasing copper concentrate [3][10] - The company's gross profit margin from copper sales has been low, often between 3% and 4%, indicating a reliance on processing fees rather than resource ownership [3][10] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The copper market is experiencing a "super bull market" due to supply-demand imbalances, with major copper-producing countries facing production issues while new industries like electric vehicles and solar energy are increasing copper demand [6][12] - The traditional hedging strategy of holding net short positions in futures may not be effective in such a volatile market, raising concerns about the adequacy of Jiangxi Copper's risk management practices [6][12] Group 5: Strategic Implications - The acquisition of the Cascabel mine represents a critical strategic move for Jiangxi Copper to transition from a processing-focused company to a resource-owning entity, which is essential for improving its profitability [10] - However, the financial burden from the acquisition and potential futures market losses raises questions about the company's ability to manage cash flow and financial stability [10][12]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 铜价走高 持货商集中抛售 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-24，沪铜主力合约开于 94850元/吨，收于 96100元/吨，较前一交易日收盘2.31%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 95,910元/吨，收于 95,020 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.25%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货对当月2601合约贴水380至240元/吨，均价贴水310元/吨，较昨日下跌95元。1# 电解铜价格为94420-94690元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约于94800-95230元/吨区间窄幅整理，尾盘回落至93800元附近。 铜价再创历史新高，一度突破95000元大关。受年末资金压力影响，持货商早市集中抛售，市场买盘乏力，主流平 水铜贴水已降至300元/吨以下，为今年5月下旬以来首次。高铜价已导致部分下游企业停产，预计今日贴水或将继 续扩大。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，地缘方面，乌克兰总统泽连斯基公布俄乌"和平计划"草案20点细节，包括乌克兰加入欧盟、向 乌克兰提供类似北约第五条集体防御条款的保障、乌克兰将尽快举行选举等。但关键的领土问题仍未 ...