Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index continues to show a differentiated pattern, with CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures expected to remain strong [19][20]. - The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed, and there may be short - term long - trading opportunities in the bond market [23]. - In the agricultural products market, protein meal is expected to fluctuate, sugar prices are likely to oscillate, and the overall trend of the oil and fat sector is to move in a range [27][30][34]. - In the black metal market, steel prices will continue to oscillate, the coking coal and coke market should be cautious about callback risks, and iron ore prices are considered bearish at high levels [56][59][63]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations, copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term with short - term fluctuations, and the prices of other non - ferrous metals have their own characteristics and trends [69][78]. - In the shipping sector, the peak of spot freight rates for container shipping is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices [113]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, asphalt prices will oscillate at high levels, and the prices of other energy and chemical products also have their own trends [118][123]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The stock index continues to be differentiated. The small - cap index performs prominently, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures are expected to maintain a strong trend [19][20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on IC and IM on dips; wait for the discount to widen for the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF; use a bull spread for options [20][21]. Bond Futures - **Core Viewpoint**: The narrative of "re - inflation" in the domestic bond market has slightly changed. Although there are factors restricting the strengthening of the bond market, there may be short - term long - trading opportunities [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on TF and T contracts on dips; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the overall price of the contract has declined. It is expected to move in a range [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - **Core Viewpoint**: Commodity price fluctuations have increased, and both domestic and international sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, while domestic sugar prices will face pressure near the upper oscillation platform [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: International sugar prices are expected to bottom - out and move in a range in the short term, and domestic sugar prices will oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell put options for options [31]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Core Viewpoint**: The overall trend is to move in a range. The inventory of palm oil is at a relatively high level, the inventory of soybean oil is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is still greatly affected by policies [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the oil and fat market will move in a range with increased volatility. For palm oil, consider shorting at the upper edge of the range after a rebound, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the oil and fat market. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Core Viewpoint**: Wheat and corn are continuously being auctioned, and the spot price is stable. The U.S. corn price is at the bottom and oscillating, and the domestic corn price will face pressure in the later stage [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the foreign market, go long on the 03 corn contract on dips and stay on the sidelines for the 07 corn contract. Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [38]. Live Pigs - **Core Viewpoint**: There is still supply pressure, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the price is expected to face pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. Peanuts - **Core Viewpoint**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is abundant, but the price is supported by factors such as cost [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 peanut contract is oscillating at the bottom. Go long on dips without chasing the rise. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option for options [43][44]. Eggs - **Core Viewpoint**: Demand has improved, and the egg price has increased steadily. The supply pressure has been relieved, but the demand is average in the short term. The near - month contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the May contract can be considered for long - position building on dips [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: The February contract is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term. Consider going long on the May contract on dips. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - **Core Viewpoint**: The cold - storage inventory is low, and the fruit price is oscillating at a high level. The cost of apple warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is acceptable. If the demand remains normal, the May contract price is likely to rise [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long position of the May contract and go short on the October contract on rallies. Long the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Core Viewpoint**: The planting area in the new year is expected to decline, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. The sales progress of cotton is fast, and there are positive factors such as the expected expansion of textile factory capacity in Xinjiang [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected that the U.S. cotton will move in a range in the short term. Consider taking profits on the long position of the recent main contract of Zhengzhou cotton. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [54]. Black Metals Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: Steel has started to accumulate inventory, and the steel price will continue to oscillate. The supply of the five major steel products has increased, the inventory has started to accumulate, and the demand has weakened seasonally [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the coal and coke market and oscillate. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading; short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; stay on the sidelines for options [57]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and attention should be paid to callback risks. The current supply and demand of coking coal are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly driven by macro - sentiment and funds [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about callback risks for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Iron Ore - **Core Viewpoint**: Market expectations are fluctuating, and the iron ore price at a high level should be treated bearishly. The supply is abundant, and the domestic steel demand is expected to decline, limiting the upward space of the iron ore price [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the iron ore contract at a high level with a light position [63]. Ferroalloys - **Core Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has generally cooled down, and it will move in a range in the short term. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon have their own characteristics, and the cost has a certain impact on the price [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move in a range in the short term for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - **Core Viewpoint**: The Bloomberg Index has started to adjust, and gold and silver are fluctuating widely. The adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index has brought selling pressure to the gold and silver markets, and the impact on silver is more significant [69]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines temporarily and wait for the market to stabilize. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70]. Platinum and Palladium - **Core Viewpoint**: The BCOM has adjusted the weights, and precious metals are fluctuating widely. The supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are different, and the price is affected by factors such as index adjustment and macro - environment [73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options [74]. Copper - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Buy after the price stabilizes after a callback. Trump's policies and factors such as supply - demand mismatch and financial attributes support the long - term rise of the copper price, but short - term fluctuations are affected by funds and sentiment [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton and buy in batches while controlling the position [78]. Alumina - **Core Viewpoint**: The expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has led to a price callback. After the price increase, the import window has opened, and the expectation of an increase in warehouse receipts has put pressure on the price [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure [81]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term risk of a callback. After the price approaches the previous high, funds have taken profits, and the price has followed the sector to correct. However, the fundamentals still have support [83][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the price corrects due to capital outflows, maintain a bullish view after the price stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [86]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Viewpoint**: It has corrected with the sector. The price has corrected with the non - ferrous metal sector, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the price, but the demand is weakening [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will correct in the short term due to capital outflows and move with the sector. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [88]. Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the impact of the capital side. The shortage pattern of zinc ore is difficult to reverse, the supply of refined zinc may increase slightly, and the consumption has resilience. The price may be affected by capital withdrawal and inventory changes [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the zinc contract at a high level with a light position and be vigilant about the pull - up of the zinc price by long - position funds. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [91]. Lead - **Core Viewpoint**: Buy on dips after the price stabilizes. The supply of lead ingots is difficult to increase significantly, the consumption has resilience, and low inventory and other factors may attract long - position funds [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain the idea of going long on dips after the price corrects. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage; buy out - of - the - money call options in a timely manner for options [95]. Nickel - **Core Viewpoint**: After an over - rise and correction, it is ready to rise again. The supply of nickel is in surplus, but the price has risen due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations. It is recommended to control the position and operate cautiously [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips after the price corrects and stabilizes. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97][98]. Stainless Steel - **Core Viewpoint**: It moves following the nickel price. The price is supported by factors such as the expected reduction of nickel ore RKAB quotas, but the upward drive is weaker than that of nickel [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Move following the nickel price. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [100]. Industrial Silicon - **Core Viewpoint**: Be bearish. The production of industrial silicon is difficult to reduce, the downstream demand may decline, and the inventory may continue to accumulate, so the price may fall [101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions and go short on rallies for new strategies. There is no arbitrage opportunity; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [102]. Polysilicon - **Core Viewpoint**: The market trading of industry self - regulation falls short of expectations, and the futures price is weak. The futures price has fallen due to market rumors, and the industry needs to reach a new balance between "anti - involution" and "anti - monopoly" [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is weak. Participate cautiously and control risks. There is no arbitrage and option strategy [105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core Viewpoint**: A strong variety has corrected but is still running at a high level. Although there is a callback risk due to factors such as industry meetings, the long - term trend is good, and the price center will move up [107]. - **Trading Strategy**: Control the position and operate cautiously. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [107]. Tin - **Core Viewpoint**: Short - term fluctuations have intensified. Pay attention to the tariff ruling and non - farm payroll data. The import of tin concentrate has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the demand is in the off - season [109][110]. - **Trading Strategy**: Correct with the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term and pay attention to the non - farm payroll data on Friday. Stay on the sidelines for options [110]. Shipping Sector Container Shipping - **Core Viewpoint**: The peak of spot freight rates is gradually being established, and attention should be paid to the decline rate of spot prices. The demand growth has slowed down, and some shipping companies have started to lower their spot quotes [113]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the rate of shipping companies' price cuts. Look for opportunities to go long on the 6 - 10 spread on dips for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and the oil price has rebounded significantly. The situation in Venezuela remains unchanged, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, leading to a significant rebound in the oil price. The oil price is expected to fluctuate widely [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate widely for single - side trading; the domestic gasoline is strong, the diesel is weak, and the crude oil calendar spread is strong for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Asphalt - **Core Viewpoint**: The sharp rise in the crude oil price provides strong cost support. The cost support is obvious due to the rise in the crude oil price, and the asphalt price is expected to oscillate at a high level [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate at a high level for single - side trading; stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [123]. Fuel Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and price fluctuations have intensified. The situation in Venezuela has an impact on fuel oil exports and production, and the supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have their own characteristics [127]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term and be vigilant about geopolitical risks for single - side trading; look for opportunities for the FU59 spread for arbitrage; stay on the sidelines for options [127]. Natural Gas - **Core Viewpoint**: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is oscillating weakly. The demand in Europe and Asia is weak, and the supply in the United States is relatively loose. The price is expected to decline in the long term [130][131]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the third - quarter TTF or JKM contracts. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [131]. LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: There is a short - term geopolitical premium, but the expectation is still under pressure. The increase in the Saudi CP price provides support, but the continuous loss of PDH profits may lead to a decrease in the operating rate [135]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the follow - up of the Iranian incident. Be bearish on the far - month contracts in the long term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [135]. PX&PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: The news of polyester production cuts has fermented. The PX supply is relatively abundant, the PTA production rate has not changed much, and the downstream polyester production cuts have increased, but the cost is supported by the rise in the oil price [137]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Fed Governor Milan indicates about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026, and CME rate futures price in two rate cuts in June and September. The US labor market shows mixed signals, with initial jobless claims low but continuing claims rising. The dollar index rebounds, and metal prices adjust for two consecutive days. In China, January economic data is in a vacuum, and the A - share market is in a structural game phase [2]. - Precious metals face increased adjustment pressure due to regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3][4]. - Copper prices are under short - term pressure from long - position profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend. Supply disruptions in Chile and inventory changes are key factors [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment as funds flow out and inventory accumulates. Alumina and cast aluminum are also adjusting in line with the overall market [7][8][11]. - Zinc, lead, and tin prices are adjusting due to factors such as market caution before non - farm data, changes in environmental policies, and profit - taking by funds [12][14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices decline as the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry falls short of expectations [17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are affected by factors such as inventory changes, demand seasonality, and supply trends. Double - coking prices are influenced by production news and market sentiment [18][19][21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices show different trends. Rapeseed meal drops significantly, and soybean meal returns to a volatile state, influenced by export data, weather, and trade relations [22][23]. - Palm oil is expected to trade in a range. Factors include Indonesia's bio - diesel policies, potential export tax hikes, and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Macro - Overseas: Fed Governor Milan says current rates are above the neutral level and restrictive. There's about 150bp of rate - cut space in 2026. Initial jobless claims are at a historical low, but continuing claims are rising. The dollar index rises to 98.9, and metal prices adjust for two days, with precious metals relatively resilient and oil prices rebounding. - Domestic: January economic data and policies have limited impact on the market. The A - share market is in a structural game, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down at 4083 points, and a structural differentiation among broad - based indices. The trading volume drops slightly to 2.83 trillion, and over 3730 stocks close higher [2]. Precious Metals - During Thursday's trading, precious metal prices are mixed. COMEX gold futures rise 0.57% to $4487.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 1.19% to $76.69 per ounce. Regulatory tightening and index fund position adjustments put pressure on gold and silver prices. The market is waiting for the US non - farm payrolls data [3]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual rebalancing from January 8 - 14 will bring selling pressure on precious metals, especially silver, increasing short - term adjustment pressure [4]. Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper futures continue to decline, and LME copper adjusts to around $12,700. The domestic spot market is quiet, and the LME inventory drops to 141,000 tons while the COMEX inventory rises to 515,000 tons. The market expects about two rate cuts in 2026. A copper mine in Chile is on strike, and the plant's operation capacity is only 30% of normal. After reaching a high, copper prices are under short - term pressure from profit - taking but may still have an upward mid - term trend [5][6]. Aluminum - On Thursday, Shanghai aluminum futures close at 23,765 yuan/ton, down 2.94%. LME aluminum closes at $3088.5 per ton, up 0.16%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, and due to high prices and the off - season, terminal demand is suppressed. With the outflow of funds, the market is dominated by fundamentals, and aluminum prices are in a volatile adjustment [7][8]. Alumina - On Thursday, alumina futures close at 2863 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The spot - futures price difference is large, and electrolytic aluminum enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The increase in futures prices may lead to more imports and delay domestic production cuts. Alumina prices are expected to adjust following the overall market [9][10]. Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, cast aluminum alloy futures close at 22,585 yuan/ton, down 2.19%. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and prices follow the trend of aluminum. With market enthusiasm cooling and long - position profit - taking, cast aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, Shanghai zinc futures continue to adjust. As zinc ingots arrive, market supply increases, but downstream consumption is poor in the off - season. The social inventory rises slightly. The market is cautious before the non - farm data, and zinc prices are expected to adjust in the short term [12]. Lead - On Thursday, Shanghai lead futures decline. After the environmental control in Anhui is lifted, some recycled lead smelters resume production, but the supply increase is limited. The social inventory rises slightly but remains below 20,000 tons. With weak consumption in the off - season, lead prices are expected to be weak due to the outflow of funds [13][14]. Tin - On Thursday, Shanghai tin futures adjust. Before the release of the US non - farm payrolls data, the market is nervous, and some funds take profits. The fundamentals change little, with slow recovery of tin mines and uncertain production in major producing countries. Tin prices are expected to continue high - level adjustment [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon futures slightly rebound. The supply side shows a marginal contraction, and the demand side is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. The anti - involution policy falls short of expectations, and industrial silicon prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase [16][17]. Steel and Iron Ore - Steel: On Thursday, steel futures decline. The supply of five major steel products increases slightly, and the total inventory rises. The consumption of building materials drops significantly, and the market is expected to return to a volatile mode. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, iron ore futures adjust. The supply is abundant as overseas miners increase shipments at the year - end, and port inventories accumulate. Demand is weak with low blast furnace operating rates. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18][19][20]. Double - Coking - On Thursday, double - coking futures rise and then fall. Mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have not received official notices of capacity reduction. With increased domestic coal production and high import inventories, and high inventory pressure in the downstream off - season, the price increase space is limited. Prices are mainly driven by short - term market sentiment [21]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean meal 05 contract closes down 0.32% at 2782 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 05 contract closes down 1.71% at 2358 yuan/ton. Brazil's January soybean export is expected to reach 2.4 million tons. The US soybean export sales decline. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations and good weather in South America, rapeseed meal drops, and soybean meal is expected to continue to fluctuate [22][23]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil 05 contract closes up 1.13% at 8612 yuan/ton. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil biodiesel consumption increases by 7.6%, and it plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year. There are also plans to increase export taxes. With the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil weakens, and palm oil is expected to trade in a range [24][25].

农产品早报 2026-01-09 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周四郑州白糖期货价格震荡，郑糖 5 月合约收盘价报 5279 元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 2 元/吨，或 0.04%。 现货方面，广西制糖集团新糖报价 5320-5380 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；云南制糖集团新糖报价 5180-5230 元/吨，报价较上个交易日持平；加工糖厂主流报价区间 5810 元/吨，报价较上个交易日上涨 0-10 元/吨。广西现货-郑糖主力合约基差 41 元/吨。 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 根据印度食品与公共分配部(DFPD)发布的通知，政府将在 2026 年 3 月 31 日后审查糖厂的出口表现，并 可能将未使用的配额重新分配给出口表现更好的糖厂或有意愿的糖厂。据巴西对外贸易秘书处(Secex)公 布的出口数据显示，巴西 12 月出口食糖 291.3 万吨，较去年同期增加 8 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - In the short - term, corn prices may rise again due to downstream seasonal restocking after New Year's Day, and long - term price trends depend on import and domestic auction policies. Starch prices are expected to strengthen slightly in the near future, and long - term prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] - Egg prices could benefit in the second quarter if there is a concentrated culling of hens before Laba Festival. The key driver is the culling rhythm [6] - Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the medium - term due to consumer competition [9] - Short - term pig market sentiment is weak, and stage supply - demand mismatches may still exist in January. Long - term expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] - Short - term sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices, and may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10] Group 3: Corn/Starch Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, corn prices in some regions remained stable, with a 20 - unit change in蛇口 price, a - 18 change in basis, and a 20 change in trade profit. Starch basis decreased by 8, and processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are affected by policy and supply, with strong basis and potential for price increase due to downstream restocking. Starch prices are weak due to slow de - stocking, but may strengthen slightly later [3] - Long - term: Corn prices depend on import and auction policies, and starch prices depend on downstream consumption rhythm [3] Group 4: Eggs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, egg prices in some regions increased, with a - 16 change in basis, and slight changes in substitute prices [5] Market Analysis - The key to egg price trends is the culling rhythm of hens. Concentrated culling before Laba Festival may benefit second - quarter prices [6] Group 5: Apples Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, apple spot prices remained stable, basis changed, and inventory decreased slightly [8][9] Market Analysis - Short - term: The apple market has a weak trading atmosphere, but prices are firm, and the futures market may maintain high - level oscillations [9] - Medium - term: The market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to consumer competition [9] Group 6: Pigs Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, pig prices in some regions changed slightly, with a - 35 change in basis [9] Market Analysis - Short - term: Market sentiment is weak after New Year's Day, but there may be supply - demand mismatches in January [9] - Long - term: Expectations depend on further production and inventory reduction [9] Group 7: Sugar Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, sugar spot prices changed slightly, basis increased by 2, import profit changed, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10] Market Analysis - Short - term: Sugar prices can be priced based on domestic sugar costs and spot prices [10] - Long - term: Prices may decline to the cost of out - of - quota imports if the global sugar surplus deepens [10] Group 8: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data - From 2025/12/31 to 2026/01/08, cotton prices changed, import profit and other indicators also changed [10] Market Analysis - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as initial inventory is low and demand is expected to improve next year [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the green consumption market in 2026 will be led by policies and initiatives aimed at promoting sustainable consumption practices across various sectors, including appliances, transportation, and agriculture [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - A joint announcement by nine government departments outlines 20 measures to promote green consumption, establishing a comprehensive policy framework that includes incentives, constraints, and guarantees [2]. - The new policies include subsidies for replacing old appliances with energy-efficient models, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and a focus on transitioning old commercial vehicles to electric ones [1][2]. Group 2: Market Demand Trends - Consumer demand is shifting from basic availability to quality and sustainability, with a notable increase in the sales of energy-efficient appliances and electric vehicles [2]. - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that from 2024 to 2025, 18.3 million vehicles will be replaced under the old-for-new policy, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles, and over 90% of replaced appliances will meet first-level energy or water efficiency standards [2]. Group 3: Industry Transformation - The demand for green products is driving companies to increase their investments in sustainable practices, leading to a transformation in the manufacturing sector towards greener supply chains and production methods [3]. - The establishment of reverse logistics systems and the promotion of "Internet + second-hand" models are expected to shift business models from linear to circular economies [3]. Group 4: Consumer and Business Perspectives - For consumers, green products should not be perceived as expensive but rather as cost-effective choices that provide long-term savings and health benefits [4]. - Companies are encouraged to view green transformation as an opportunity for innovation and growth rather than merely a compliance requirement, which can lead to cost savings and enhanced product value [4]. Group 5: Environmental Impact - The widespread adoption of green consumption is anticipated to result in significant environmental benefits, contributing to cleaner air, water, and overall improved ecological conditions [5].

香米占大米出口总量的64%。凭借独特香气与优质口感，柬埔寨香米在国际市场持续享有良好口 碑，备受消费者青睐，市场需求保持稳定增长。 除大米外，去年稻谷出口量达685万吨，出口额约15.7亿美元，成为农产品出口创汇的重要来源之 一。 为进一步提升国际市场份额，柬埔寨商业部于2025年8月正式推出《2025—2030年大米出口市场拓 展与多元化战略》。该战略明确三大方向，一是巩固柬埔寨香米在全球主要市场的领先优势；二是扩大 优质大米出口，重点面向亚洲地区中等收入消费群体；三是通过现有及未来贸易协定，以及粮食援助与 粮食安全合作机制，进一步开拓更广阔的国际市场。 据柬埔寨稻米联盟统计，2025年柬埔寨大米出口量突破94万吨，出口总额达6.02亿美元。 报告指出，2025年大米出口量同比增长45%。去年柬埔寨共向75个国家和地区出口大米，其中输往 欧洲28国的出口量为33.9万吨，向东盟8国出口27.3万吨，向中国出口23.1万吨。 （原标题：2025年柬埔寨大米出口超94万吨 出口额逾6亿美元） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated negative impact on precious metals, particularly gold and silver, due to the annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), which is expected to lead to significant sell-offs in these commodities [1][3][5]. Group 1: BCOM Rebalancing Impact - The BCOM rebalancing is set to occur from January 9 to January 15, with a focus on adjusting the weights of various commodities based on trading volume and global production [5]. - Gold's weight in the BCOM is expected to decrease from 20.4% to 14.9%, while silver's weight will drop from 9.6% to 3.94%, indicating a substantial sell-off in these metals [3][5]. - The rebalancing will result in the largest supply increases for silver, aluminum, and gold, while demand increases will be most significant for WTI crude oil, natural gas, and low-sulfur diesel [5][6]. Group 2: Historical Context and Price Correlation - Historical data shows that significant weight changes in the BCOM have generally correlated with price movements of the respective commodities, with the exception of gold in the previous year, where a weight reduction coincided with a price increase [9]. - The article references past rebalancing events and their effects on commodity prices, highlighting that the adjustments often lead to similar directional price changes [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1, with a long - position overweight strategy for the stock index. The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026 but could have a rebound after the Spring Festival, with a short - position hedge before the Spring Festival and a long - position underweight after. Commodities should be structurally allocated, with long - position overweight on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities, long - position standard allocation (timing) on black building materials and agricultural products, and short - position standard allocation on crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity Market**: In December 2025, the A - share market oscillated upward, switching back to the growth - oriented style. Most primary industry indices rose, with national defense, communications, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and machinery leading the monthly gains [8][10]. - **Bond Market**: The performance of short - and long - term bonds diverged. Short - term Treasury yields declined while long - term yields increased, and the Treasury term spread widened significantly. By December 31, 2025, the 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury yields dropped to 1.3605% and 1.3830% respectively, while the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rose to 1.8473% and 2.2674% [13]. - **Commodities**: The prices of domestic commodity futures were differentiated, with precious metals leading the gains. As of December 28, 2025, the precious metals index soared 14.38%, the metal index rose 6.18%, the industrial products index increased 1.44%, and the agricultural products index slightly declined 0.59% [17]. 2. Outlook and Analysis of Major Asset Classes - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: Abroad, the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Fed may decrease. Domestically, the probability of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026 is low, but a reserve requirement ratio cut is still expected [19][28]. - **Equity Assets**: In the short - to - medium term, the cross - year market has started, and the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1 2026. In the long - term, the policy and liquidity environment in 2026 are favorable to the market [31][32]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026, with the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield before the Spring Festival likely between 1.90% - 1.95%. After the Spring Festival, there may be an oversold rebound opportunity [35][36]. - **Commodities**: The differentiation pattern of commodities will continue. Crude oil may remain weak after a short - term rebound. Industrial metals may face supply - demand imbalance, and agricultural product prices may fluctuate more due to various factors. Precious metals may experience significant short - term fluctuations but maintain an upward long - term trend [37][38]. 3. Allocation Strategies for Major Asset Classes - **Domestic Stock Index**: In 2026, the equity market should be strategically allocated, with a long - position overweight in January. Focus on industries such as the AI industry chain, leading companies going global, industries with improved supply - demand relationships, and the industrialization of cutting - edge technologies [40]. - **Commodities**: Increase the weight of commodities in the asset allocation. Overweight precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities; standard - allocate black building materials and agricultural products (timing); and short - allocate crude oil [41][42]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Hedge with short positions before the Spring Festival and underweight long positions after the Spring Festival. The bond market will remain volatile in 2026 and should be under - allocated [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market is affected by international trade policies and supply - demand dynamics. The CBOT soybean futures are under pressure, and the domestic soybean and bean -粕 markets are in a state of high inventory and structural shortage expectations. The protein -粕 market will oscillate, with the bean -粕 05 contract ranging from 2700 - 2870 [6]. - The rapeseed -粕 market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market is greatly disturbed by news related to imported rapeseed supply. Rapeseed -粕 mainly follows the protein -粕 market trend, with potential for a stronger performance but also risks of mood reversal. The 05 contract is expected to be in the range of 2300 - 2450 [45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean and Bean -粕 Market 3.1.1 International Situation - China maintains a 13% import tariff on US soybeans, and commercial purchases are still difficult. The progress of China's soybean purchases from the US is slower than expected, and the optimistic sentiment for exports is cooling. The focus of the January USDA report is whether US soybean exports will be adjusted downward, which could lead to an increase in the stock - to - consumption ratio. The CBOT soybean futures are oscillating downward [6]. - Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, and harvesting has begun in some areas. There is no weather premium on the futures, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remains [6]. 3.1.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Domestic soybean inventories are at a high level, and the spot supply of bean -粕 from oil mills is still relatively abundant. Downstream feed enterprises have high inventories and limited demand, with average pick - up. Oil mill bean -粕 inventories continue to accumulate and remain at a high level [6]. - In the first quarter, the forward supply gap of imported soybeans in China has been partially repaired, but the soybean purchase plan from the US needs to be observed. The expectation of tightened customs policies for arriving ships has caused temporary supply concerns, but given the high inventories of soybeans and bean -粕, there is a risk of a reversal in market sentiment [6]. 3.1.3 Price and Cost - The USDA's December report predicts that in the 2025/26 season, global soybean production will be 422.54 million tons, a decrease of 5.4 million tons compared to the previous year; the demand for soybean crushing will be 365.24 million tons, an increase of 7.04 million tons; and the export volume will be 187 million tons, an increase of 3.16 million tons. The final inventory will be 121.99 million tons, a decrease of 1.25 million tons. The supply - demand pattern has tightened slightly [8]. - The price of imported soybeans is affected by the futures price, premium, and shipping costs. The cost of imported soybeans is supported by the inverse relationship between the futures price and the premium [17]. 3.1.4 Purchase and Inventory - As of December 30, the purchase progress for the December 2025 shipment was 100%, 99.33% for January 2026, 82.82% for February 2026, and 77.47% for March 2026 [27]. - As of December 26, the oil mill bean -粕 inventory was 116.75 million tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous month and a 47.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The physical inventory of bean -粕 in national feed enterprises was 9.45 days, a 13.54% increase from the end of the previous month and an 11.97% increase compared to the same period last year [34]. 3.1.5 Oil Mill Operations - In December 2025, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 9.0675 million tons, a 0.55% increase from the previous month and a 9.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The annual soybean crushing volume in 2025 was 101.728 million tons, a 6.35% increase compared to the previous year [31]. 3.2 Rapeseed -粕 Market 3.2.1 International Situation - Last week, ICE rapeseed futures oscillated at a low level. Trading was light before the New Year's Day holiday. The futures declined slightly due to the pressure of a bumper rapeseed harvest during the week and were supported by the rise in the vegetable oil market on the weekend. The settlement price of the main rapeseed futures contract on the weekend was 603.9 Canadian dollars, a 7.6 - Canadian - dollar decrease from the previous week, a 1.2% decline, and a 20.1 - Canadian - dollar decrease compared to the previous year, a 3.2% decline [45]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Canada's insistence on imposing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles has led to no new progress in China - Canada economic and trade relations. There are basically no new purchase orders for Canadian rapeseed, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed -粕 in oil mills are at a low level. Rapeseed crushing plants are mostly shut down. As the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed -粕 in feed decreases, and market trading volume is limited, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [45]. - China is actively seeking alternative imports of rapeseed -粕 from multiple sources, and relevant news will have a significant impact on the futures [45]. 3.2.3 Policy Impact - The preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed maintains a 75.8% deposit for exporters, closing the window for importing Canadian rapeseed. This will significantly increase the cost of importing Canadian rapeseed, reducing import willingness, tightening the domestic rapeseed industry supply chain, and changing the current pattern of weak supply and demand in the rapeseed -粕 market [46]. 3.2.4 Market Conditions - As of the first week, the rapeseed crushing plant operating rate was 0%, and the rapeseed -粕 production was 0 tons. The pick - up volume of rapeseed -粕 in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and there was no trading in the rapeseed -粕 market [61][64]. - As of the first week, the oil mill rapeseed -粕 inventory was 0 tons, the granular rapeseed -粕 inventory was 16.7 million tons, and the consumption was 0.8 million tons [69]. 3.3 Price Spreads - The bean -粕 05 contract basis was 296 yuan/ton, compared to 311 yuan/ton the previous week. The bean -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 101 yuan/ton, compared to - 106 yuan/ton the previous week [39]. - The rapeseed -粕 05 contract basis was 119 yuan/ton, compared to 93 yuan/ton the previous week. The rapeseed -粕 5 - 9 contract spread was - 47 yuan/ton, compared to - 59 yuan/ton the previous week [75]. - The soybean oil - to - bean -粕 ratio was 2.85, compared to 2.82 the previous week. The spread between the main contracts of bean -粕 and rapeseed -粕 was 393 yuan/ton, compared to 399 yuan/ton the previous week [82].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) will significantly reduce the weight of gold from 20.4% to 14.9% and silver from 9.6% to 3.94%, leading to substantial selling pressure on silver [1][2]. Group 1: Rebalancing Impact - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities estimate that $7.7 billion worth of silver will flood the market in the next two weeks, equating to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market, which may trigger a significant price correction [2][10]. - The rebalancing process is expected to unfold over several days, not just one, indicating a prolonged period of selling pressure on precious metals, particularly silver [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that the rebalancing will negatively impact precious metals while benefiting crude oil [3][5]. - TD Securities highlights that the trading volume of the largest silver ETF has reached extreme levels, typically seen only at market peaks, indicating speculative fervor among retail investors [3][10]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that liquidity in the London market is crucial for determining silver price trends, with tight inventory conditions likely to lead to extreme price volatility [4][12]. - The current tightness in the London market is exacerbated by speculative activities surrounding U.S. trade policies, which have led to a significant outflow of silver from London inventories [12][13]. Group 4: Price Sensitivity - Deutsche Bank estimates that a sale of 2.4 million ounces of gold could lead to a price drop of 2.5%-3.0%, depending on the sensitivity model used [7]. - In tight market conditions, the sensitivity of silver prices to net demand has increased significantly, with a typical weekly demand of 1,000 tons pushing prices up by about 2%, now heightened to 7% [13].