12月10日，和讯投顾陆润凯表示，就在今晚，美联储今年最后一次利率决议即将来临，这不仅关乎降不 降息、降多少的问题，更有一件至关重要的事。你看近期市场反复多变，就像今天，若你盯了一整天 盘，会发现盘中几十个赛道反复轮动，最终市场又回到开盘位置，全天下来估计让人脑袋发懵。核心在 于当下市场仍处于企稳阶段，大资金正忙着调仓换股、进行切换，从近期银行和CPU表现分化巨大就能 看出端倪。所以场内风格偏向波段操作，为的是过渡，缺乏太好持续性。主力每次行动节点，更多是在 类似周五保险券商受消息面催化时，或是在市场冰点时进场拿筹码。确切地说，今晚至明天凌晨，是资 金下一个布局节点。比如正常预期是降息25个基点，市场不会有太大反应，但若一下超过50个基点，情 况就不一样了。当然，这都不是最关键的，关键在于宣布利率决议后的发言，若对方透露出明年可持续 降息的预期，对于大资金而言就可提前布局，这比降息50个基点更靠谱。如此一来，A股有望摆脱当下 反复震荡的态势，提前开启行情，12月份作为转折点也将得到确认。不过，我们切勿盲目乐观，希望越 大失望越大，只要做好交易计划，跟着策略走就行。 ...

10日，两市股指早盘弱势下探，创业板指一度跌超2%，午后逐渐止跌，一度翻红；沪指跌幅明显收 窄。 截至收盘，沪指跌0.23%报3900.5点，深证成指涨0.29%，创业板指微跌0.02%，沪深北三市合计成交 17918亿元。 盘面上看，银行、食品饮料等板块走低，地产板块午后拉升，零售、保险、酿酒、券商等板块上扬，海 南自贸、黄金概念等活跃。 德邦证券指出，近期指数分化与板块轮动加剧，资金向科技成长与政策催化板块集中，算力硬件、消费 等板块或成为短期主线。未来1—2周或将是国内外政策密集落地期，美联储政策、国内经济工作会议、 AI技术迭代等或将成为影响市场走势和风格的关键变量，需密切跟踪事件落地节奏与市场预期差。市 场当前预期美联储12月大概率降息25BP，若落地或将提振全球风险偏好，推动外资回流A股市场的概率 增加，但需警惕若出现"鹰派降息"对流动性冲击的影响。 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market continued to show weakness, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.43% to 25,324.75 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.68%, and the National Enterprises Index down 0.51% [1] - Major technology stocks exhibited mixed performance, with NetEase and Bilibili down over 1%, Tencent down 1%, while Meituan rose over 1% [1] - Precious metals performed strongly, with silver reaching a historical high and gold-related stocks rising, including Lingbao Gold which increased nearly 10% [1] - Shipping stocks declined, with Pacific Basin Shipping down 9.5% and Orient Overseas International down 5% [1] - The photovoltaic sector also fell, with China Metallurgical Group down 4.3% and other companies like Xinyi Solar and Flat Glass down over 3% [1] Company News - Datang New Energy reported a cumulative power generation of approximately 31.6521 million MWh in the first 11 months, an increase of 10.58% year-on-year [2] - Jiangshan Holdings reported a total solar power generation of approximately 279.78 thousand MWh in the first 11 months, a decrease of 5.61% year-on-year [3] - New City Development reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 17.917 billion yuan in the first 11 months, a decrease of 51.53% year-on-year [4] - Longfor Group achieved a total contract sales amount of 59.39 billion yuan in the first 11 months [5] - CIFI Holdings reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 15.1 billion yuan in the first 11 months [6] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Securities indicated that the Hong Kong stock market is still in a left-side phase, with a rebound needing to wait, but mid-term positioning appears attractive [12] - Huaxia Fund noted that the previous irrational panic in the tech sector has eased, and the future outlook for AI development is pragmatic with clear commercialization paths [12] - China International Capital Corporation highlighted that the recent weakness in the Hong Kong market is due to multiple factors including a declining credit cycle and liquidity pressure [13] - Everbright Securities mentioned that after a rebound in 2025, the current Hang Seng Index P/E ratio is above the past five-year average, indicating overall valuation repair but still within a reasonable range [13]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 60, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a strong investor confidence in the market [5][8][20] - Key themes identified for investment include non-ferrous metals, banking, and brokerage sectors, driven by various economic factors and regulatory changes [5][8] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals theme is buoyed by expectations of increased demand due to potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth, with copper prices expected to rise due to financial attributes and supply constraints [5] - Specific stocks highlighted include Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) as potential investment opportunities [5] Banking Sector - Banking stocks are noted for their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield, making them attractive for long-term investors [5] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [5] Brokerage Sector - The report discusses regulatory changes proposed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at enhancing the quality of development in the brokerage industry, which may benefit high-quality institutions [5] - Suggested stocks for investment in this sector include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan (601211) [5] Market Sentiment Analysis - The market sentiment temperature indicator suggests that when the sentiment score is below 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 70 indicate potential resistance [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sentiment levels for making informed investment decisions [8][20]

【相关产品】 证券ETF(159841)，对应场外联接基金（A：008590，C：008591）。 【热点事件】 证监会：稳步推进券商国际化布局，提升跨境金融综合服务能力 资金流入方面，证券ETF(159841)近20个交易日内有17日资金净流入，合计"吸金"2.07亿元。 【产品亮点】 证券ETF(159841)跟踪标的一键打包优质上市券商，其中近6成仓位集中于十大龙头券商，"大资管"+"大投行"龙头齐聚；另外4 成仓位兼顾中小券商的业绩高弹性，吸收了中小券商阶段性高爆发特点，是集中布局头部券商、同时兼顾中小券商的高效率投 资工具。 截至2025年12月9日收盘，证券ETF(159841)成交2.71亿元。跟踪的中证全指证券公司指数(399975)下跌1.24%。成分股光大证券 (601788)、中信建投(601066)收涨。 截至12月9日，证券ETF(159841)近3月规模增长23.88亿元，近1月份额增长2.30亿份，实现显著增长。 12月6日，在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上，证监会主席提到，证券机构需要提升跨境金融综合服务能力，稳步推进国际化 布局，包括"一带一路"沿线市场拓展，加强境内外协同， ...

来源：国金证券第5小时 新股上市：N百奥 688796.SH 中签缴款：纳百川 301667.SZ 中签缴款：优迅股份 688807.SH 新债上市：茂莱转债 118061.SH 据21世纪经济报道，闻泰科技已正式向荷兰方面指定的安世半导体股权托管人迪里克（Guido Dirick）等人发出函件，提议就安世半导体相关争议开展建 设性会谈，以期通过对话弥合分歧、寻求符合各方利益的长期解决方案。会谈的核心议题，预计将围绕恢复闻泰科技对安世半导体的合法控制权与完整股 东权益展开。 1、国务院总理李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会。李强强调，今年中国经济顶压前行，取得新的发展成绩，我们有信心有能力完成全年 经济社会发展目标任务。中国经济将保持稳健向好势头，经济总量将再上新台阶，产业升级将创造新的发展空间，超大规模市场需求将加快释放。 2、商务部部长王文涛在京会见国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃。王文涛强调，中方希望国际货币基金组织就有关国际经贸热点问题开展客观研究， 愿加强双方政策沟通，携手应对挑战，为全球经济持续稳定发展贡献力量。 3、美国总统特朗普称将批准向中国出售英伟达H200人工智能芯片，外交 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates an upward trend in the market with improved win rates, despite limited upward space, maintaining a mid-term oscillating pattern [3][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of mid-cap blue-chip stocks with solid fundamentals and clear industry positions, which are expected to attract incremental capital during the market's upward oscillation [4][9] - The brokerage sector is poised for growth due to favorable policy changes and internal transformations, leading to a clearer growth path for brokerage firms [5][9] - The military industry is highlighted for its dual demand from domestic and international markets, with significant investment opportunities anticipated as new equipment construction plans are set to be clarified [6][9] Market Strategy - The report notes a slight recovery in market sentiment following favorable policies for domestic insurance companies and a shift in the U.S. national security strategy, leading to a rebound in non-bank financials, metals, communications, and AI sectors [9] - It suggests that the "slow bull" market will continue, with mid-cap blue-chip stocks being the backbone of the market's upward movement [4][9] Industry Strategy - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from a positive regulatory environment that encourages the differentiation of firms, promoting high-quality development and improved profitability [5][9] - The military sector is projected to see growth driven by new production capabilities and the expansion of military trade markets, particularly in unmanned systems and advanced equipment [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new performance evaluation regulations in the non-bank financial sector, emphasizing the importance of investor experience and the growth of mixed FOF products [5]. Group 1: Fund Market Overview - As of November 2025, the total net asset value of public funds in the market reached 36 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease of 0.06% month-on-month [3]. - The total number of public fund shares was 31.36 trillion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.37%. Equity funds accounted for 6.5 trillion shares, up 1.55%, while bond funds totaled 9.15 trillion shares, up 0.21%. Money market fund shares were 14.61 trillion, down 0.44% [3]. - In November 2025, 945.67 billion new fund shares were issued, marking a month-on-month increase of 30.81%, with equity funds contributing 546.69 billion shares (up 42.27%) and bond funds 216.66 billion shares (up 49.2%) [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - There was a slight recovery in individual investors' risk appetite, with ordinary stock, enhanced index, and mixed funds showing month-on-month increases of 0.18%, 3.62%, and 0.41%, respectively. QDII and FOF funds continued to see net inflows, with growth rates of 3.97% and 8.88% [4]. - Institutional investors are seeking to enhance returns amid interest rate fluctuations, with funds primarily flowing into secondary bond funds and REITs, which saw month-on-month increases of 0.50% and 1.10% [4]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is placing greater emphasis on investor experience, with the issuance of mixed FOF products continuing to grow month-on-month. The new performance evaluation regulations are currently under consultation [5]. - The 10-year government bond yield has fluctuated upwards, leading to increased volatility in the bond market. This has made capital gains more challenging, prompting new fixed-income products to shift towards more attractive fixed-income plus products [5]. - The "TREE Changying Plan," launched by China Merchants Bank in collaboration with public funds, aims to provide a one-stop asset allocation solution for clients, focusing on risk control and stable returns through optimal FOF selection [5].

Group 1 - A-shares experienced significant divergence today, with over 4,000 stocks declining, primarily due to external pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and anticipated interest rate decisions [1][3] - Traditional cyclical sectors such as metals, real estate, coal, and financials underperformed, influenced by global commodity price fluctuations and a stronger dollar [1][3] - The market is facing additional pressure as year-end approaches, with a wave of share reductions and decreased trading volume reflecting cautious investor sentiment [3] Group 2 - The CPO concept emerged as a market focus, driven by news that NVIDIA was allowed to sell H200 AI chips to China, boosting expectations for AI computing investments and benefiting domestic supply chains [1][3] - CPO leading stocks are heavily weighted in public funds, and the sudden market surge, combined with year-end performance pressures, has led to a concentration of funds in these core assets [1][3] - There is a noticeable rotation of funds from traditional cyclical sectors to high-growth technology sectors, indicating a shift in investment focus [1][3] Group 3 - Despite the overall decline in A-shares, the index remained stable, suggesting potential for upward movement if stability is maintained [3][4] - Short-term market sentiment is cautious due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, while long-term outlook remains bullish [4]

（来源：燕财局） 咱们国家一年当中有4次重要经济研判会议和1次核心年度经济会议，而五次之中2次通常集中在12月。 前者的4次都由政治局主持召开，时间通常在每年的4月、7月、10月和12月，对当前经济形势进行分析和研判，尤其是12月那场通常专门研究下一年经济 工作，并为接下来（也在12月）的中央经济工作会议做准备。 后者的1次核心年度经济会议，也就是中央经济工作会议，主要任务是总结当年经济工作，分析研判经济形势，并部署下一年的经济发展规划。 换言之，今年12月有两场会议，第一场是政治局会议，这场会议会专门分析研判2026年该怎么走，给2026年经济工作定调；第二场则是之后的中央经济会 议，这场会议会完善更多的执行细则。 明眼人都能看出来，显然12月的这场政治局经济会议尤为重要，因为它将直接关系到房贷利息会不会降、收入会不会涨、养老金和育儿补贴会不会增加， 国家政策将重点向哪些产业行业板块倾斜，等等。 相当于是对2026年经济宏观政策的抢先预告，分量可以说几乎是全年之最。 上到企商界佬、投资精英，下到炒股的牛散，甚至都要逐字研究每句话背后的含义。 作者 | 燕大 12月重磅会议，给2026年经济划下大方向！ 而昨 ...