Market Overview - Precious metals experienced a significant crash, with spot silver erasing all gains for the year, plummeting by 14%, while gold fell approximately 10% [2] - International metal prices saw a widespread decline, with notable drops in various commodities [4] Price Movements - New York gold dropped by 9.01% to $1,900.87, platinum fell by 10.40%, copper decreased by 5.75%, and nickel dropped by 8.00% [5] - Domestic futures contracts also hit their limit down [6] Global Market Impact - The crash in gold and silver prices negatively affected global stock markets, with the South Korean stock market falling by 5% and Japan's market initially rising by nearly 2% before closing down over 1% [7] - Major indices in Asia, including the Korean Composite Index and the Nikkei Index, reported declines of over 2% [8][11] Investor Sentiment - Analysts noted that the market's movements reflect a reduction in risk appetite among investors, who are reassessing positions amid high valuations and tightening financial conditions [9] - The selection of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as a catalyst for the shift towards a more hawkish monetary policy, contributing to a stronger dollar and impacting commodity markets [9][10] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, all three major indices fell over 2%, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 2.48% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.69% [11] - The resource sector faced collective adjustments, particularly in precious metals and oil and gas, with several stocks hitting their daily limit down [14] Stock Specifics - In the A-share market, 771 stocks rose while 4652 stocks fell, with notable strength in the electric grid equipment sector and continued gains in liquor stocks [12] - Semiconductor stocks also faced significant declines, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Wentai Technology hitting their daily limit down [16]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 2.46% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 26,066 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,558 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,600 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that experienced significant declines included precious metals, oil and gas extraction and services, chemicals, coal, steel, semiconductors, PEEK materials, and photolithography concept stocks [1] - In contrast, the liquor and electric grid equipment sectors showed strong performance [1] ETF Performance - The new economy ETF from Yinhua rose by 7.57%, while the food and beverage sector also saw gains, with the Penghua Fund liquor ETF and the Huabao food and beverage ETF increasing by 1.48% and 1.33%, respectively [1] - The electric grid equipment sector had a strong upward trend, with ETFs from Huaxia, Guangfa, and Guotai rising by 1.33%, 1.06%, and 1.01%, respectively [1] Specific Sector Issues - The non-ferrous sector faced a wave of limit-downs, with 30 non-ferrous themed ETFs, including the Industrial Bank gold stock ETF and the Yinhua non-ferrous ETF, hitting the limit down [2] - The semiconductor sector also saw a decline, with the China-Korea semiconductor ETF reaching its limit down [2]

Market Overview - Precious metals experienced a significant crash, with spot silver erasing all gains for the year, plummeting by 14%, while gold fell approximately 10% [1][17] - International metal prices fell sharply across the board [4][20] - Various domestic futures contracts hit their daily limit down [6][22] Global Market Impact - The crash in gold and silver prices has adversely affected global stock markets, with the South Korean stock market dropping by 5% and the Japanese market initially rising by nearly 2% before closing down over 1% [7][23] - The Asia-Pacific markets reflected this trend, with the Korea Composite Index down 5.26%, the FTSE Indonesia Index down 3.95%, and the Nikkei 225 down 1.25% [24] Investor Behavior - Analysts noted a shift in investor sentiment towards reducing risk in "crowded trades," as investors reassess their positions amid high valuations and tightening financial conditions [8][24] - The market's tolerance for high-beta assets has decreased, leading to a movement of funds from momentum assets to cash and defensive stocks [8][24] Catalyst for Market Movement - The selection of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair is seen as a catalyst for the breakdown of high-momentum trades, as he is perceived to be less dovish than other candidates [9][25] - This has led to a strengthening of the dollar, suppressing sentiment in the foreign exchange market and impacting the entire commodities sector [9][25] A-Share Market Performance - In the A-share market, all three major indices fell over 2%, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component down 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.46% [10][26] - A total of 771 stocks rose, while 4652 stocks fell, with 123 stocks hitting their daily limit down [11][27] Sector Performance - The electric equipment sector showed resilience, with stocks like Tongguang Cable and Shuangjie Electric hitting their daily limit up [12][29] - In contrast, resource stocks, particularly in precious metals and oil and gas, faced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limit down [12][31] - Semiconductor stocks also suffered, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation and Wentai Technology hitting their daily limit down, and others dropping over 10% [12][32]

Group 1 - A-share market is expected to see a potential incremental capital scale of around 3 trillion yuan by 2026, with public funds, insurance capital, and bank wealth management as the main contributors [1] - Mixed-asset funds are anticipated to become a substitute for residents' fixed deposits, while ETFs are gaining attractiveness as equity allocation products, potentially becoming a backbone for future stock market incremental funds [1] - Structural opportunities are emerging in the A-share market, particularly in sectors like brain-computer interfaces, commercial aerospace, and embodied intelligence, driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs [3] Group 2 - Real estate policies are showing positive changes, with a stabilization in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes since the second half of 2025, and a decrease in new land supply [3] - The demand side of the real estate market remains weak, but there are signs of positive changes on the supply side, suggesting a potential increase in focus on the real estate sector in the short term [3] - The global macroeconomic uncertainty is driving demand for precious metals, with gold prices expected to challenge $5,000 per ounce in the first half of the year, while silver may reach $100 per ounce [5] Group 3 - The semiconductor industry is benefiting from geopolitical tensions, with companies like Huawei and Cambricon rapidly improving their chip performance, indicating a growing domestic semiconductor ecosystem [5] - The storage chip market is in a price uptrend due to AI demand and supply-side contraction, leading to a potential performance explosion for global storage industry companies [5] - The A-share refinancing market is becoming active, with companies raising funds primarily for strengthening core businesses, expanding advanced capacity, and upgrading technology [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a downward trend after several days of volatility, with increased selling volume despite support from the three major financial pillars [1] - The white liquor sector is attempting a rebound, but the strength of this rebound is significantly weaker compared to previous instances, indicating that a strong fundamental improvement is necessary for a sustainable price recovery [1] - The precious metals sector has seen a complete reversal, moving from a collective increase to a collective decline, reflecting market volatility [2] Group 2 - The automotive sector, particularly in new energy vehicles, is facing challenges as recent sales data shows a major player selling just over 200,000 units, with only 100,000 units sold domestically, leading to concerns about inventory and production costs [4] - The market is expected to continue its current trajectory, with opportunities anticipated for strategic entry points in the future [4]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48% to 4015 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 2.46% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.61 trillion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4600 stocks declining and more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - International precious metals continued to plummet, leading to a wave of limit-downs in the precious and non-ferrous metals sectors, with companies like Hunan Gold and Xicheng Technology among over twenty stocks hitting the limit down [1] - The fertilizer and phosphate chemical sectors also saw declines, with Dongfang Iron Tower hitting the limit down [1] - The coal sector experienced a downturn, with Dayou Energy hitting the limit down [1] - The semiconductor sector faced significant losses, with Zhongwei Semiconductor and over ten other stocks dropping more than 10% [1] - Other sectors with notable declines included storage chips, steel, combustible ice, and chemical raw materials [1] - Conversely, the electric grid equipment and ultra-high voltage sectors rose against the trend, with stocks like Tongguang Cable and Baiyun Electric hitting the limit up [1] - The liquor industry showed strength, with Jinhui Liquor hitting the limit up [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 102.20 points or 2.48% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 381.54 points or 2.69% [2] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3264.11, down 82.24 points or 2.46% [2] - The STAR Market 50 Index fell by 3.88% to 1450.90 [2] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.13% to 4605.98, while the CSI 500 Index fell by 3.98% to 8037.05 [2] Top Gainers - The top gainers included sectors such as liquor and tea, with liquor up by 1.83% and soft drinks by 0.18% [3] - The banking sector also showed a slight increase of 0.129% over five days [3] - Other sectors like highways and electric grid equipment had minimal changes, with highways up by 0.03% and electric grid down by 0.22% [3]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.69%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.46% [1] - The North Stock 50 Index decreased by 2.03%, and the total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 26,066 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,558 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,600 stocks across the three markets experienced declines [1] Sector Performance - The precious metals, oil and gas extraction and services, chemicals, coal, steel, semiconductor, PEEK materials, and photolithography concept stocks all saw significant declines [1] - Conversely, the liquor and electric grid equipment sectors showed resilience, with several stocks in these sectors hitting the daily limit [1] Commodity Market - There was a substantial sell-off in commodities during the Asia-Pacific trading session, leading to sharp declines in metals, oil and gas, chemicals, coal, and steel sectors [1] - Specific stocks such as Hunan Silver and Silver Nonferrous faced significant selling pressure, with nearly 10 billion yuan in sell orders and over 6 billion yuan in sell orders respectively [1] - More than 30 stocks, including Zhongman Petroleum and Intercontinental Oil & Gas, hit the daily limit down [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector also experienced a significant downturn, with stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation hitting the daily limit down, and Jiangbolong and Baiwei Storage dropping over 10% during trading [1] Resilient Sectors - The electric grid equipment sector benefited from policy support and increased demand for computing power, with stocks like Tongguang Cable and Baobian Electric hitting the daily limit up [1] - The liquor sector demonstrated strong performance, with stocks such as Jinhui Liquor and Huangtai Liquor reaching the daily limit up [1]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced a historic crash, with prices dropping over $40 in less than 20 hours, marking a 26% decline, while gold fell 9%, indicating a rapid shift from market euphoria to panic [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 2, international gold and silver prices faced unprecedented sell-offs, with gold dropping 9.25% to $4,880 per ounce and silver plummeting 26.42% to $85.26, the largest single-day decline in over 40 years [1]. - The immediate trigger for this crash was the nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, which sparked fears of a shift in monetary policy, leading to a rebound in the dollar index that pressured precious metal prices [1][2]. - Prior to the crash, silver had an annualized return of 183% over the past month, and gold ETF holdings reached historical highs, with leveraged long positions exceeding 40%, indicating a market already at an "overbought critical point" [1][2]. Group 2: Trading Behavior - In the lead-up to the crash, global traders exhibited frenzied behavior, with the Shenzhen market seeing gold bar buyback prices surge by 180 yuan per gram, and long queues forming at silver counters [2]. - The SLV silver ETF saw a single-day trading volume exceeding $40 billion, 20 times the normal trading volume, while the options market experienced a "short squeeze" with 65% of open call contracts [2]. - The market's turning point was influenced by a sell-off triggered by disappointing Microsoft earnings, which led to programmatic stop-loss orders and a rapid decline in gold prices [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Despite expectations of a "catch-up" in Shanghai silver prices post-crash, structural imbalances remain, with global central bank gold purchases reaching a record 5,000 tons and an industrial silver demand gap widening to 3,000 tons per year, while mineral supply growth is insufficient at under 2% [3]. - Citic Securities predicts that by 2026, gold prices could challenge $6,000, and silver may reach $120, although short-term caution is warranted due to regulatory adjustments in China, with several banks raising gold accumulation thresholds to 1,500 yuan [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The significant drop in gold prices has breached the critical psychological level of $5,000, indicating a bearish short-term outlook, with key price levels to watch being $4,600 and $4,500 [4]. - For silver, the market has retraced more than half of its January gains, with the 50% retracement level at $83.61, which may present an attractive entry point for long-term bullish investors [5]. - The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is noted at $74.63, potentially serving as a better re-entry point for an upward trend, coinciding with the 50-day moving average [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 恐慌性抛售席卷贵金属市场，金银暴跌 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-2-02 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属价格波动剧烈，先扬后抑，全线崩盘。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）上半周，在避 险需求强劲和美元走弱等因素的提振下，贵金属价格加速冲高，伦敦现货黄金逼近5600美元/盎 司，伦敦现货白银突破121美元/盎司关口。一方面，美国对伊朗极限施压，市场愈发担忧美国 对伊朗"动武"，地缘避险持续升温，驱动贵金属价格大幅上涨；另一方面，市场对美日联合干 预汇市的预期和特朗普对美元贬值的表态令美元指数一度大幅走弱至95.5附近，进一步利好贵金 属价格。（2）下半周，在金银多头头寸极度拥挤背景下，因美股流动性收紧的触发，贵金属市 场开始出现获利了结压力。随后周五亚盘外媒报道称特朗普政府将提名前理事凯文·沃什出任新 美联储主席，这一消息在昨日晚间得到特朗普确认。因沃什 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Financial Street Securities Research Institute constructs a strategy portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, referring to the strategy reports "Strategy Portfolio Report under Industry Rotation: Quantitative Analysis from the Perspective of Industry Style Continuity and Switching" (20241007) and "Research on the Overview and Allocation Methods of the Stock - type ETF Market: Taking the ETF Portfolio Based on the Industry Rotation Strategy as an Example" (20241013) [2] - From 20260126 - 20260130, the cumulative net return of the strategy was approximately - 0.24%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately - 0.39%. From October 14, 2024, to the present, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was approximately 44.34%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately 19.78% [3] - In the week of February 2, 2026, the model recommends allocating sectors such as refining and trading, cement, and industrial metals. In the next week, the strategy will newly hold products such as Building Materials ETF, Non - Ferrous Metals ETF, and Real Estate ETF, and continue to hold products such as Petrochemical ETF, Chemical ETF, and Gold Stocks ETF [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Strategy Portfolio Information - The strategy portfolio includes ETFs such as Petrochemical ETF (159731), Building Materials ETF (159745), Non - Ferrous Metals ETF (512400), etc. Each ETF has information such as market value, holding status, heavy - held Shenwan industries and their weights, as well as weekly and daily timing signals. For example, the Petrochemical ETF has a market value of 16.60 billion yuan, and the heavy - held industry is refining and trading with a weight of 27.28%, and both the weekly and daily timing signals are 1 [3] 3.2 Performance Tracking - During 20260126 - 20260130, the cumulative net return of the strategy was about - 0.24%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about - 0.39%. From October 14, 2024 to now, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 44.34%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 19.78% [3] 3.3 Portfolio Adjustment - In the week of February 2, 2026, the strategy will add holdings of Building Materials ETF, Non - Ferrous Metals ETF, Real Estate ETF, etc., and continue to hold Petrochemical ETF, Chemical ETF, Gold Stocks ETF, etc. Some previously held ETFs such as Mining ETF, Communication ETF, etc. will be removed from the portfolio [3][11][12]