Core Insights - The global commodity market is experiencing a significant surge in demand for a specific metal, primarily driven by China, with countries rushing to secure supplies ahead of expectations [2][4][6]. Global Demand Surge - Countries including the US, India, UAE, and others are actively participating in the rush for this metal, which has become a highly sought-after commodity [4]. - In Shenzhen's precious metal wholesale market, there has been a noticeable increase in demand for silver ingots, particularly those without processing fees, leading to inventory shortages [4][6]. Central Bank Activities - Central banks, including Russia's, have incorporated this metal into their foreign exchange reserves, with Russia holding 92,000 tons as of 2025, representing 14.67% of global reserves [6]. - The US has classified this metal as a critical mineral, prompting other nations to follow suit and designate it as a strategic asset while limiting domestic outflows [6][8]. Price Escalation - The price of silver has surged, with London spot silver prices exceeding $59.33 per ounce, marking a historical high, while futures contracts approached $60 per ounce [8]. - In the domestic market, silver jewelry prices have risen to 16.52 yuan per gram, and wholesale prices for silver ingots reached a record high of 13.378 yuan per gram, reflecting a price increase of over 140% in one year [9]. Industrial Significance - The metal's value has shifted from jewelry to industrial applications, becoming essential for high-tech industries, particularly in the context of global energy transitions [11][20]. - In the photovoltaic industry, a 100 MW solar project requires 2.5 to 3 tons of this metal, while larger projects can demand over 20,000 tons [12]. - The rise of the electric vehicle industry further amplifies demand, with China's production of over 30 million electric vehicles in 2025 alone requiring 1,500 to 3,000 tons of this metal annually [16]. Supply Chain Dynamics - China plays a crucial role in the global supply chain for this metal, handling 60% to 70% of its refining, despite holding only 11% of global reserves [23][24]. - In 2025, China's export volume reached 9,126 tons, accounting for 23.4% of global trade, indicating its dominance in the market [24][25]. Export Control Policies - China has implemented new export control measures, elevating this metal to a strategic material status, requiring strict approval for exports [26][28]. - These policies aim to prioritize domestic supply while managing global market stability amid increasing international demand [30][32]. Conclusion - The ongoing rush for this metal reflects a broader competition for dominance in high-tech industries and resource strategy on a global scale [34][36]. - China's strategic export controls position it favorably in the global market, ensuring resource security for its own industrial upgrades while navigating international competition [38].

（原标题：深夜突发！全线暴跌） 【导读】贵金属全线暴跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现！ 1月7日晚间，美股三大指数涨跌 不一，道指跌近200点，纳指涨约0.4%，标普500指数接近平盘。 贵金属在此前上涨后出现回调，全线大跌，白银跌破每盎司80美元，黄金结束三连涨；铜价也从历史高 位回落。 TD Securities策略师Daniel Ghali在报告中写道："我们预计，在综合商品指数再平衡资金流的推动下， 将出现大规模抛售。"他还称白银此前的走势出现了类似"冲顶式暴涨"的特征。 石油价格跳水，消息面上，特朗普政府计划控制委内瑞拉未来的石油销售，特朗普在周二晚间表示，委 内瑞拉将向美国交出最多5000万桶原油，按当前市场价格估算价值约28亿美元，引发了人们对石油供应 增加的担忧， 此外，美国欧洲司令部称，美军在北大西洋扣押了一艘与委内瑞拉有关、悬挂俄罗斯旗的船只。 经济数据方面，今晚公布的ADP数据显示，美国企业在2025年12月的招聘在进入2026年前以"温和"的速 度增长：私营部门新增就业仅4.1万人，低于经济学家的预期。投资者正等待周五发布的非农就业数 据，以判断劳动力 ...

【导读】贵金属全线暴跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现！ 1月7日晚间，美股三大指数涨跌不一，道指跌近200点，纳指涨约0.4%，标普500指数接近平盘。 | 49282.17 | 3 | Company of the company of the 23649.81 | Company of the company of the first of the f 6952.05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯指数 -0.36% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 +0.44% | 标普500指数 +0.10% | 贵金属在此前上涨后出现回调，全线大跌，白银跌破每盎司80美元，黄金结束三连涨；铜价也从历史高位回落。 TD Securities策略师Daniel Ghali在报告中写道："我们预计，在综合商品指数再平衡资金流的推动下，将出现大规模抛 售。"他还称白银此前的走势出现了类似"冲顶式暴涨"的特征。 石油价格跳水，消息面上，特朗普政府计划控制委内瑞拉未来的石油销售，特朗普在周二晚间表示，委内瑞拉将向美国交出 最多5000万桶原油，按当前市场价格估算价值 ...

Group 1 - The recent surge in silver prices, surpassing oil prices, indicates a significant shift in market dynamics, with the silver-to-oil ratio fluctuating between 1.2 and 1.3 [3][4] - Historical context shows that the last time silver was more expensive than oil was approximately 45 years ago, during the Hunt brothers' manipulation of the silver market [2] - The current geopolitical situation in Venezuela has not significantly impacted oil prices, which have been on a downward trend, reflecting a broader supply surplus in the global market [3][4] Group 2 - Silver's demand is closely tied to industrial applications, particularly in sectors like electronics and photovoltaics, which are expected to drive its price, despite a projected slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth [4][5] - Oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to anticipated increases in U.S. oil production and ongoing global supply surplus, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average WTI oil price of $52 per barrel in 2026 [5][6] - The silver-to-oil ratio is expected to remain above 1, but significant increases are unlikely, with key factors including OPEC+ production cuts and global energy policy changes influencing this dynamic [6]

Market Performance - On January 7, the stock market showed strong resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up, marking a record of fourteen consecutive gains[1] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 2.88 trillion yuan, an increase of 493 billion yuan compared to January 6[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.56%[1] Capital Flow - Net inflow of southbound funds amounted to 9.178 billion HKD, with Tencent and Xiaomi seeing net inflows of 1.955 billion HKD and 1.633 billion HKD respectively[1] - Conversely, China Mobile and SMIC experienced net outflows of 1.126 billion HKD and 1.070 billion HKD respectively[1] Debt Market - Long-term interest rates showed a "V-shaped" reversal, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields rising to 1.90% and 2.34% respectively, up by 1.6bp and 2.5bp[5] - The 10-year government bond yield is facing a critical level at 1.90%, while some 30-year bonds have exceeded 2.40%[5] Commodity Market - The commodity market saw a net inflow of nearly 12 billion yuan, with the black series (steel and coal) receiving over 4.5 billion yuan in capital[9] - Precious metals faced selling pressure, with silver down 2.07% and gold slightly down 0.17%[9] Sector Performance - Semiconductor materials and equipment led the gains, with significant increases in prices for DDR5 and NAND Flash, up 573% and 63% year-on-year respectively[3] - The rare earth index rose by 4.23%, driven by the upward trend in industrial non-ferrous metals[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the current precious metal prices are influenced by various international and domestic factors, leading to price volatility and uncertainty in corresponding profits [2] - The company advises investors to pay attention to future periodic reports and related announcements for information regarding production capacity and other relevant situations [2]

标:安安期货客户中的专业投资者，请勿同读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本内容不拘成具体业务的排价，亦不应被视为任何投资、法律、会计或税务建议，且本公司不会因装放人以到 体内容而规具为客户。本内容的信息来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准朝性、完整性及未来变更的可能往不作任何保证。请您根据自身的风险承受微力作出投资决定并自主承担 投资风险、不应凭借本内容进行具体操作、本公司不对目使用本内容而造成的损失承担任何责任、除非劳有说职。本公司拥有本内容的组织和/流英地相关知识产权。 法坚本公司事先 书面许可。任何单位或个人不得以任何方式复制、转载、引用、刊登、发表、发行、修改、翻译此报告的全部或部分内容。 | 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2026/1/7 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixia ...

1月7日，在新的一年拉开序幕之际，全球市场依然被浓厚的不确定性迷雾所笼罩。ZFX山海证券 观察 到，被市场视为"避险天堂"的黄金与白银表现尤为亮眼，其总市值一度重返全球资产排行榜的前两名， 力压一众科技巨头。在当前避险情绪升温的环境下，实物资产的价值存储功能再次得到了市场的广泛公 认，而加密资产如比特币目前则维持在第八位。 根据 CompaniesMarketCap 最新的统计数据，黄金以 31.1 万亿美元的庞大市值稳坐全球资产头把交椅。 ZFX山海证券 表示，白银与半导体巨头英伟达（Nvidia）之间的次席争夺战已进入白热化阶段。尽管英 伟达受益于人工智能算力需求的激增而势头强劲，但白银在近期多次反超英伟达，展现出贵金属在动荡 局势中的强劲爆发力。投资者在应对全球性贸易争端与潜在地缘冲突时，倾向于将资金撤出高风险板 块，转而配置具有长久历史背书的贵金属。 宏观层面的政策转向也是驱动这一现象的关键。美联储新管理团队领导下的降息预期，是促使金银价格 屡创新高的核心动能。目前，金价与银价已分别触及 4500 美元和 80 美元附近的历史高点。尽管这股资 金流尚未完全涌入加密货币市场，但ZFX山海证券 认为，随着 ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets showed signs of a pause in their upward trend on January 7, 2026, after a previous surge driven by AI hype and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Asian stock markets entered a technically overbought zone, leading to profit-taking and declines, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index falling over 1% [1] - U.S. stock index futures displayed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq 100 futures down more than 0.2%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The commodities market experienced significant volatility, particularly in precious metals, with spot gold prices dropping below $4,450 per ounce and silver prices declining by over 3% in a single day [1] - The declines in precious metals were partly attributed to a key funding event, as the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) was set for annual weight rebalancing from January 8 to 14, leading to expected large-scale mechanical selling [1] - The anticipated sell-off could involve silver futures facing sell orders equivalent to 9% of total open interest, while gold futures could see sell orders around 3% of total open interest, exerting direct pressure on short-term market sentiment and prices [1] Group 3 - The oil market faced downward pressure following U.S. President Trump's announcement that the Venezuelan interim government would transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., raising concerns about a potential increase in global oil supply [2] - Federal Reserve officials provided policy clues, with Governor Milan stating that core inflation levels have returned close to the Fed's 2% target, suggesting further rate cuts may exceed 100 basis points this year [2] - The focus of investors is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for December 2025, as the Fed's policy direction is increasingly influenced by concerns over a weak labor market [2]

摘要周三（1月7日）贵金属市场整体呈现冲高回落态势，尤其是午后外盘大幅跳水，带动内盘承压走低。现货黄金一度失守4450美元/盎司关口，日内跌超 1%，现货白银跌破79美元/盎司，日内跌幅扩大至3.00%。截至北京时间17:13，现货黄金最新报4464.49美元/盎司，跌幅0.65%，现货白银最新报79.31美元/ 盎司，跌幅2.35%。 12月"小非农"ADP就业人数与11月JOLTs职位空缺将于北京时间今晚21:15、23:00先后公布。同样将公布的还有ISM服务业数据。不过，本周市场的关键焦点 仍是周五发布的美国非农就业报告。若进一步显现劳动力市场走弱迹象，可能促使市场提前预期下一次降息的时间。LSEG数据显示，市场目前对3月降息的 定价概率约为五五开，但直到6月才完全计入一次降息。 中国央行数据显示，中国黄金（600916）储备规模在12月底达到3194.5亿美元，高于11月底的3106.5亿美元；中国12月末黄金储备报7415万盎司（约 2306.323吨），环比增加3万盎司（约0.93吨），为连续第14个月增持黄金。 （来源：国家外汇管理局） 据外媒报道，受过去一年金价暴涨和各国央行积极购入的推动， ...