Core Points - Yunnan Copper Co., Ltd. completed the issuance of its third phase of medium-term notes for 2025 on October 21, 2025, with the funds fully received by October 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 1 - The company issued technology innovation bonds as part of its financing strategy [1] - The announcement confirms the accuracy and completeness of the information disclosed by the company and its board [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production, indicating a significant increase in output and suggesting a positive investment outlook for the industry [1]. Industry Summary - In August 2025, China's refined copper production reached 1.3 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of refined copper in China totaled 9.891 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 10.1% [1]. - The report provides insights into the market status and investment prospects of the electrolytic copper foil industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1]. Company Summary - Listed companies in the copper industry include Jiangxi Copper (600362), Yunnan Copper (000878), Zijin Mining (601899), Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630), Western Mining (601168), Baiyin Nonferrous Metals (601212), Chuanjiang New Material (002171), Hailiang Co. (002203), Xinke Materials (600255), and Xiyang Co. (000960) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report takes a neutral view of copper prices, with an expected trading range of RMB 81,600/ton to RMB 86,600/ton this week [7] Core View of the Report - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, strong precious metal prices, and frequent disruptions at overseas mines, copper prices rose. Now, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. The overall demand on the demand side is difficult to improve significantly, and copper prices will maintain a volatile pattern [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On October 21, 2025, the Shanghai Copper main contract opened at RMB 85,220/ton and closed at RMB 85,400/ton, up 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at RMB 85,300/ton and closed at RMB 85,020/ton, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - On the previous day, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at par to a premium of RMB 100/ton, with an average premium of RMB 50, down RMB 10 from the previous day. The copper price ranged from RMB 85,560 - 85,900/ton. The market's purchasing and selling sentiment was divided. High copper prices suppressed purchasing willingness, and it is expected that the demand will not improve under high prices, and the spot premium will remain under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical risks are easing as European leaders support a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations. Japan's new female Prime Minister, Takamori Sanae, is considering a supplementary budget to address high prices [3] Mine - end - BHP's Escondida copper mine produced 328,900 tons in Q3 2025, an 8% year - on - year increase and unchanged quarter - on - quarter. The increase was due to record processing volume and improved recovery, partially offset by lower ore grades. The 2026 fiscal year production guidance remains at 1.15 - 1.25 million tons, and the expected annual ore grade is about 0.85% [4] Smelting and Import - In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,079.92 tons, a 2.67% month - on - month increase and a 14.84% year - on - year increase. Japan and Thailand were the top two import sources [5] Consumption - In September 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 95,869 tons, a 26.0% year - on - year increase. The operating rates of domestic refined copper rods and copper cables rebounded last week but were still below pre - holiday levels and down over 15 percentage points year - on - year. High copper prices continued to suppress downstream demand, and the overall recovery space is limited [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 137,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,641 tons to 37,678 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 186,600 tons, an increase of 9,100 tons from the previous week [6] Arbitrage and Options - Arbitrage: Put on hold - Options: Short put @ RMB 81,000/ton [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations has disrupted the upward rhythm of copper prices. Due to the expected future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, along with production disruptions in multiple overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions after the price pullback, and pay attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spread and Inventory Situation - **Spread Situation**: The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is also positive and reasonable. The LME copper (0 - 3) contract spread is negative and reasonable, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and at a relatively high level. The COMEX copper near - far month contract spread is negative and reasonable. The spreads between LME copper and Shanghai copper, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper are positive and reasonable, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and reasonable. It is recommended that investors temporarily observe the arbitrage opportunities in these spreads [9][10][12]. - **Inventory Situation**: The closure of the import window may limit domestic electrolytic copper imports, leading to an increase in the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas and social inventory compared to last week. The LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased, while the COMEX copper inventory increased. The ratio of non - commercial long to short positions in COMEX copper decreased month - on - month [19][22]. 3.2 Mid - upstream Supply Situation - **Copper Concentrate**: The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may reduce copper production in 2026. The import index of Chinese copper concentrate is negative and decreased compared to last week, and the port copper concentrate inventory in China increased [29]. - **Scrap Copper**: The restriction on high - quality scrap copper exports in Europe, the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the positive spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase domestic scrap copper production in October but reduce imports, resulting in a tight supply - demand expectation [32]. - **Blister Copper**: The production and import of domestic blister copper in October may decrease month - on - month due to the ignition of the smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry and the increase in the maintenance capacity of domestic smelters [33]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The production and import of domestic electrolytic copper in October may decrease month - on - month due to factors such as production cuts in Congo - Kinshasa, maintenance in Japan, and production resumption in Indonesia [40]. 3.3 Downstream Demand Situation - **Copper Rod**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined and recycled copper rods increased compared to last week. The processing fees of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventories of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises decreased [44][46]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper wire and cable increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventories decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may increase month - on - month [56][63]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: The order volume and capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper enameled wire increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may increase month - on - month [60][63]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The processing fees of Chinese brass plate and strip increased, and the capacity utilization rate and production of copper plate and strip samples increased compared to last week. The raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may increase month - on - month [65][71][73]. - **Copper Foil**: The processing fees of Chinese lithium - ion (HTE) copper foil were flat or increased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper foil in October may increase month - on - month [67][73]. - **Copper Tube**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper tube samples increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may decrease month - on - month [75][80]. - **Brass Rod**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese brass rod samples increased compared to last week, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased. The capacity utilization rate in October may decrease month - on - month [77][80].

Group 1: Copper Industry Performance - Copper stocks collectively surged, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 4.89% to HKD 14.15, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 3.54% to HKD 6.72, Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 3.2% to HKD 32.92, and Zijin Mining (02899) up 2.68% to HKD 35.2 [1] - The recent landslide incident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has led Freeport-McMoRan, the operator, to invoke "force majeure" clauses, significantly impacting global copper supply [1] Group 2: Global Copper Supply Forecast - Citigroup has revised its global copper supply forecast, predicting a production of 23.15 million tons in 2025, a 0.1% increase year-on-year, and 23.46 million tons in 2026, a 1.3% increase year-on-year, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Influencing Copper Prices - Following comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggesting a potential interest rate cut this month, copper prices have rebounded, with overseas rate cut expectations being a dominant factor [2] - The labor market data remains a key influence on U.S. rate cut expectations, but delays in data release due to government shutdowns may lead to fluctuating expectations [2] - As long as recession risks do not materialize, significant declines in copper prices are unlikely [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the support of fundamentals. Although the domestic peak season is slightly lower than expected, considering the production cuts of domestic smelters due to raw material shortages and the good demand in the power grid and auto market at the end of the year, the fundamental support logic remains unchanged [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper rose first and then fell. The market risk preference rebounded due to the possible new - round Sino - US negotiation. The release of China's macro - economic data and the convening of an important meeting strengthened the policy stimulus expectation, pushing up the price. But the increase narrowed in the afternoon due to increased selling. The spot price rose by 855 to 85630, and the premium rose by 5 to 60. The SMM statistics showed that the social inventory increased by 0.91 million tons to 18.66 million tons. The spot import loss narrowed to 620, LME0 - 3 turned to - 16.83, and the LME inventory decreased by 50 tons to 13715 tons [10] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The supply pressure of domestic spot is expected to decline as the subsequent domestic arrival volume is expected to decrease. The domestic market has continuous inventory accumulation while the overseas market has inventory reduction [10] Group 5: Industry News - **Import and Export Data**: In September 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2,586,873.52 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The imports of refined copper were 374,075.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. The exports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 95,869 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.0%; the cumulative exports from January to September were 1,142,833 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in September were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%; the cumulative imports from January to September were 4.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% [11][12] - **Mining Incident**: MMG's Las Bambas copper mine in Peru is facing the impact of informal mining activities. Illegal miners have extracted about 90,000 tons of copper in the past 15 years, which is higher than the 74,000 tons estimated in mid - 2024. The Sulfobamba community where the mine is located has mined copper on its own and refused to sell land for MMG's development [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - valued stocks and rapid rotation. Market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainty. However, in the long run, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the main strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - Recently, Sino - US trade disputes have flared up again, and the short - term decline in risk appetite is conducive to the recovery of the bond market. But the future of tariff progress is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - The Fed's monetary policy is in the early stage of the easing cycle, and the most important driver, the new Fed chair candidate, has not been announced. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals [10]. - For most commodities, Sino - US trade frictions and the uncertainty of relevant negotiations have an impact on market sentiment. However, different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends. For the black sector, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][41]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues in Sino - US economic and trade consultations. CATL's Q3 net profit was 18.5 billion yuan, a 41% year - on - year increase; revenue was 104.19 billion yuan, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. Apple's stock price hit a record high, and iPhone 17 demand was strong. Micron's CBO said the DRAM memory supply situation in 2026 would be more severe [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous rise, high - flying sectors face divergence, and short - term index is uncertain. In the long run, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. The GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate - related data showed different trends [5]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade disputes are beneficial to the bond market in the short term, but the future is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may fluctuate, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose. The market has priced in two consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts in October and December. The Fed may end quantitative tightening, and small - bank loan risks have supported precious metal prices [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a long - position strategy for precious metals. The reference range for Shanghai gold is 934 - 1050 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 10937 - 12500 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated and rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong changed, and the import loss narrowed [12]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment has improved. Copper raw material supply is tight, and prices may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 84800 - 86500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10600 - 10800 dollars/ton [13]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Aluminum prices fluctuated and declined. LME and domestic inventories changed, and the market trading atmosphere was light [14]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade tensions have eased, and the price may be strong in the short term. The reference range for Shanghai aluminum is 20800 - 21100 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2750 - 2800 dollars/ton [15]. Zinc - **Market News**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc fell. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed [16]. - **Strategy**: Domestic zinc ore inventory decreased, and zinc ingot inventory increased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [18]. Lead - **Market News**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories and basis changed, and domestic social inventory decreased [19]. - **Strategy**: Lead ore port inventory increased, and downstream demand improved. It is expected to be strong in the short term [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: Nickel prices fluctuated at a low level. Spot prices were stable, and nickel ore and nickel - iron prices were also stable. MHP coefficient prices were high [20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may have a limited impact. Nickel - iron prices are weak, and inventory pressure is high. In the long run, there is support. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips [20]. Tin - **Market News**: Shanghai tin prices fell. Supply was tight due to slow tin - mine复产 in Myanmar and crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some sectors was weak, but there was marginal improvement in the peak season [21]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, Sino - US trade frictions may affect sentiment, but supply - demand is in tight balance, and prices may fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market News**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The downstream of lithium batteries is in the peak season, and supply is less than demand. Pay attention to the supply recovery. The reference range for the 2601 contract is 73800 - 78000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose slightly. Spot prices, overseas prices, and inventory changed [24]. - **Strategy**: Ore prices have short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The smelting capacity is in excess, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may support prices. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless - steel futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changed [26]. - **Strategy**: The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Cast - aluminum - alloy prices fell. Inventory and trading volume changed [28]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade negotiations may improve sentiment, but high warehouse receipts limit the upward space [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices changed. Futures and spot prices, inventory, and trading volume all had corresponding changes [31]. - **Strategy**: The overall commodity market was weak. Steel prices may fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term trend is unchanged. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US negotiations [32]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron - ore futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [33]. - **Strategy**: Supply has increased, and demand has decreased. Steel - mill profitability has declined, and prices are expected to be weak. Pay attention to the support at 760 - 765 yuan/ton [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass prices rose, and soda - ash prices rose slightly. Inventory, trading volume, and basis changed [35][37]. - **Strategy**: Glass and soda - ash markets are expected to be weak in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [36][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices rose slightly. Spot prices and basis changed [38]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade frictions and weak demand have pressured prices, but the market may have expectations for future meetings. It is recommended to look for opportunities to rebound. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector trend, and ferrosilicon has no obvious supply - demand contradiction [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial - silicon prices rose, and polysilicon prices fell. Spot prices, inventory, and basis changed [42][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial - silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate. Polysilicon supply may decrease at the end of the month, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [43][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices fluctuated and recovered. Typhoon Fengshen may affect production areas. Tire - enterprise operating rates changed, and inventory decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber prices are stable in the short term. It is recommended to go long with a stop - loss and consider a hedging strategy [52]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude - oil futures prices fell, and refined - oil futures prices changed. Inventory data showed different trends [53]. - **Strategy**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and use a range - trading strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [55]. - **Strategy**: Import unloading is delayed, and supply has decreased slightly. Demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed. Spot prices, basis, and inventory changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Short - term production has decreased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or consider going long on dips [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure - benzene and styrene prices changed. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [59]. - **Strategy**: Spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. Supply is abundant, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices may stop falling [60]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices rose. Cost, supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [61]. - **Strategy**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to go short on rallies [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene - glycol prices were stable. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [63]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and inventory is rising. It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [65]. - **Strategy**: Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [66]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices fell. Supply, demand, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [67]. - **Strategy**: PX load is high, and downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [70]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices rose. Spot prices, basis, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [72]. - **Strategy**: Futures prices rose. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are under pressure [73]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market News**: Pig prices mainly rose. There are risks in product sales, and demand may decrease [75]. - **Strategy**: Supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [76]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices fell. Supply is normal, and demand is weak [77]. - **Strategy**: Spot prices may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybeans rose. Domestic soybean - meal prices were stable, and inventory decreased [79]. - **Strategy**: Domestic supply pressure is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [82]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Malaysian palm - oil exports increased, and production also increased. Domestic palm - oil and soybean - oil inventories changed [83]. - **Strategy**: There is support for the price center. It is recommended to buy on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices fell. Brazilian production data and Chinese import data were released [85]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be bearish in the long run, and it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices rebounded. Spot prices, acquisition prices, and import data all had corresponding changes [88]. - **Strategy**: Sino - US trade conflicts and weak fundamentals limit the upward space. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [89].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown resilience amid easing US-China trade tensions and stable economic performance in China, although domestic demand remains weak and social inventory continues to accumulate [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Copper opened slightly higher and continued to strengthen, closing up 0.73% [1] - As of October 20, domestic electrolytic copper inventory reached 195,500 tons, an increase of 12,400 tons compared to October 16 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Concerns about tight supply persist due to previous disruptions at the mining level, with domestic copper concentrate processing fees hovering around -40 USD/ton [1] - The increase in inventory is attributed to a significant inflow of imported copper and limited outflow from warehouses, as downstream consumption shows limited growth potential [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Jin Yuan Futures suggests that the resumption of US-China negotiations may boost market risk appetite, with expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Despite slightly lower-than-expected domestic consumption, the market remains in a tight balance, with supply growth from mines below 1% this year and limited growth in global smelting output [1] - The combination of easing macroeconomic disturbances and strong cost support is expected to lead to a short-term upward trend in copper prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 全球贸易摩擦反复，有色板块高位回落 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-10-20 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 ...