Core Viewpoint - After four consecutive years of revenue decline, Three Squirrels is set to return to the "100 billion club" in 2024, bolstered by its upcoming IPO in Hong Kong, which would make it the first Chinese snack company to achieve dual listing in A+H shares [1][3]. Financial Performance - Three Squirrels reported revenues of approximately 72.93 billion RMB, 71.15 billion RMB, and 106.22 billion RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with corresponding net profits of approximately 1.29 billion RMB, 2.2 billion RMB, and 4.07 billion RMB [1][2]. - The overall gross margins for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 were 26.2%, 22.7%, and 23.8%, respectively, with a noted decline in 2023 attributed to rising raw material and logistics costs, while a recovery is expected in 2024 due to supply chain optimization [6][12]. Market Position - In the Chinese snack market, Three Squirrels ranked fourth in sales last year, trailing behind international giants Mars, Mondelez, and Pepsi, while being the top domestic snack brand [2][3]. - The company has diversified its product offerings, with nuts accounting for 50.5% of revenue in 2024, followed by fast-growing categories like comprehensive snacks, which increased from 12% in 2022 to 19% in 2024 [5][6]. Strategic Transformation - The company has undergone a strategic transformation under founder Zhang Liaoyuan, focusing on high-end cost performance and a "full-channel + full-category" operational model, which includes restructuring the supply chain and entering new sales channels [3][12]. - Three Squirrels is shifting from an OEM model to a self-owned brand model, enhancing control over product quality and cost management, which is expected to improve profitability [12][13]. Channel Strategy - The company has implemented a "D+N" strategy, combining short video platforms with traditional e-commerce, resulting in significant revenue growth from platforms like Douyin, which saw a compound annual growth rate of 99.27% from 2022 to 2024 [14][16]. - Despite challenges in offline retail, Three Squirrels aims to increase its presence in physical stores, planning to adjust its revenue structure from a 7:3 online-to-offline ratio to a 5:5 ratio over the next 2-3 years [21][22]. Future Outlook - The upcoming IPO is expected to provide the necessary capital for further expansion and to strengthen the company's supply chain and offline presence, as well as to explore new product categories such as beverages and pet food [11][23]. - The company plans to build new processing plants across various regions in China and Southeast Asia, aiming to enhance production capacity significantly [11][12].

分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/04/25-2025/05/08） 业绩表现分化，关注景气细分 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 行 业 研 究 2025 年 5 月 9 日 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业 行 业 周 报 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年4月25日-2025年5月8日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体上 涨0.64%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第二十六位，跑输同期沪深300指 数约1.17个百分点。 ◼ 行业周观点：业绩表现分化，关注景气细分。受外围市场扰动，提振内 需将成为推动国内经济增长的重要一 ...

2025年5月8日，FBIF2025食品创新展（FBIF超级选品会）在国家会展中心（上海）火热开场，作为亚太地区颇 具行业影响力的⻝品盛会之一，FBIF云集了全球知名食品企业携最新主推产品现场展示，其中最"膨"湃的展位 当属旺旺集团旗下的四大新锐品牌——卡兹脆、浪味、Got Rice、摸鱼了没。耳目一新的"椰林海岸"视觉主线 Chill十足，结合产品创新力与年轻化交互设计，开展首日即吸引了数千人次驻足，用户自发传播内容刷屏各大 社交媒体，成为2025FBIF流量断层展商之一。 为什么是他们火出圈？ 零食界的新流量 更是产品说话的实力派 新时代的零食创新，要求多面的强者，风味的究极、感官的刺激、情绪的共鸣、细分赛道的标签……拥有更多 能瞬间击穿消费者记忆点的产品内核，就拥有了更多被看见、被讨论、被分享的出圈可能。 1）卡兹脆作为携奖参展的C位的C位，其新品粟米球洋葱乳酪味上市即获奖，以iSEE全球食品创新奖"第七届创 新品牌百强"的实力背书，首次亮相FBIF即收获一批粉丝。针对儿童打造的"酥脆不腻"的奶香体验，同样受到 了现场大朋友们的喜欢。卡兹脆粟米条、粟米球以产品革新驱动全链路升级，通过非油炸工艺、原料把控 ...

食品饮料行业 2025 年 5 月 9 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 超配 （维持） 内部分化，复苏在途 食品饮料行业 2024 年与 2025 年一季度业绩综述 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，同花顺 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 业 绩 综 述 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 食品饮料行业2024年业绩增速放缓，2025Q1业绩微增。2024年SW食品饮料 行业实现营业总收入10915.80亿元，同比增长3.92%，增速同比下降3.95个 百分点；实现归母净利润2171.12亿元，同比增长5.51%，增速同比下降 11.74个百分点。今年一季度，食品饮料行业整体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising popularity of konjac products, particularly "konjac snacks," has significantly impacted the stock prices of several listed companies, driven by consumer demand for low-calorie snacks [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of konjac has surged dramatically, with raw material prices increasing more than gold, reflecting a growing demand in the market [1] - The price of white konjac rose from 6000 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, a 58% increase, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [3][7] - The planting area for konjac has shrunk by 23% over the past three years, compounded by a 15% reduction in yield due to drought, leading to a significant shortage of raw materials [7][22] Group 2: Company Performance - Companies like Weilong and Yanjinpuzi have seen substantial stock price increases due to their konjac product lines, with Weilon's stock rising 142% and Yanjinpuzi's by 39% [2] - Yizhi Konjac, a smaller player in the konjac processing sector, experienced a staggering 742% increase in stock price, highlighting the potential for smaller companies in this niche market [2][11] - The revenue from konjac products for Weilon reached 3.371 billion yuan in 2024, a 59.1% year-on-year growth, marking a significant shift in their product portfolio [9][11] Group 3: Consumer Trends - The demand for konjac snacks has been fueled by health-conscious consumers seeking low-calorie options, with the retail sales of konjac snacks in China surpassing 12 billion yuan in 2024, growing over 20% year-on-year [22][25] - Other snack brands are also capitalizing on the konjac trend, with Yanjinpuzi reporting an 76% increase in revenue from konjac products [11][12] - The introduction of konjac in various forms, such as jelly and tea drinks, has further expanded its market presence, appealing to a broader consumer base [15][18] Group 4: Quality Concerns - There are concerns regarding the quality of konjac products, with reports of inferior ingredients being used to cut costs, potentially harming consumer perception and market growth [23][24] - The high sodium content in many konjac snacks has raised health concerns, as some products exceed recommended daily sodium intake levels [18][21] - The industry faces challenges in maintaining quality standards, as the rapid growth has led to a proliferation of lower-quality products that could undermine the market's reputation [22][25]

Core Viewpoint - The rising popularity of konjac snacks, particularly "konjac shuang," has significantly impacted the stock prices of several listed companies, driven by consumer demand for low-calorie food options [1][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of konjac has surged dramatically, with raw material prices increasing more than gold, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1][7]. - The price of white konjac rose from 6000 yuan/ton to 9500 yuan/ton, a 58% increase, indicating a strong demand in the market [3][7]. - The overall retail sales of konjac snacks in China exceeded 12 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth of over 20% [21]. Group 2: Company Performance - Weitong's stock price increased from 7 HKD/share in January 2025 to 17 HKD/share by May, a rise of 142% [1]. - Yanjinpuzi's stock price rose from 64 yuan/share to 89 yuan/share, reflecting a 39% increase [1]. - Yizhi Konjac, a konjac processing company, saw its stock price soar from 7 yuan/share to 59 yuan/share, a staggering 742% increase [1]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The demand for konjac snacks has been fueled by health-conscious consumers seeking low-calorie alternatives, with brands like Weitong successfully marketing "konjac shuang" [8][10]. - Other snack brands, such as Yanjinpuzi and Liangpinpuzi, have also capitalized on the konjac trend, with significant revenue growth attributed to konjac products [10][14]. - The tea beverage industry has adopted konjac as an ingredient, further driving its popularity [14]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The konjac planting area has shrunk by 23% over the past three years, compounded by a 15% reduction in yield due to drought, leading to raw material shortages [7][22]. - The industry faces challenges related to quality control and consumer perception, as some products may not meet the expected taste and quality standards due to cost-cutting measures [22][24]. - There is a concern about the "bad money driving out good," where lower-quality products could harm the overall market perception of konjac snacks [22][24].

Summary of the Conference Call on the Opportunities for Chinese Snack Exports Industry Overview - The Southeast Asian snack market has significant potential, with a total market size of approximately 150 billion yuan, where five core countries account for 92% of the market share, with Vietnam showing the fastest growth [1][3][6] - The long-term market share for Chinese snacks in Southeast Asia could reach 15% to 20%, corresponding to an incremental market exceeding 20 billion yuan [1][4][25] Key Insights and Arguments - **Target Markets**: Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia are identified as primary target markets due to their high growth rates and undefined competitive landscapes. Thailand has high average prices, presenting market capture opportunities, while the Philippines can be approached through innovation [1][4][18] - **Competitive Landscape**: Local brands are strong but have low concentration, with CR5 at 30.6% and CR10 at 44.4%. Major international players like Mars, Mondelez, and Unilever hold market shares of 5% to 8% [1][6] - **Chinese Brand Advantages**: Chinese snack brands possess advantages in supply chain efficiency, product innovation, and flexible strategies, allowing them to outperform local brands in operational efficiency and brand reputation [3][16] - **Challenges**: Chinese companies face localization and shelf space barriers. Localization requires compliance with varying regulations, certifications, and taste preferences across different countries. Shelf space barriers arise from the current stage of market entry, necessitating strategies to penetrate mainstream distribution channels [17][19] Strategic Recommendations - **Initial Strategy**: Companies should focus on building brands, channels, and production capacity internally while establishing specialized organizations for localized operations. Key markets should be Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand [4][20] - **Product Strategy**: Emphasize advantageous product categories and local flavor adjustments. Establish overseas organizations to develop distribution networks and leverage new media to influence overseas consumers [4][20] - **Market Penetration**: Utilize emerging trends in discount retail and e-commerce to enhance market penetration, especially in regions where traditional channels are being transformed [17][20] Notable Companies and Their Strategies - **Salted Fish**: Rapid growth in Thailand with successful product validation and channel construction [27] - **Ganyuan Foods**: Achieved overseas channel breakthroughs in Vietnam and plans to expand into Indonesia and Malaysia [28] - **Three Squirrels**: Aiming to establish factories in Southeast Asia while replicating its domestic high-end cost-effective strategy [29] - **Wei Long**: Focused on steady development in the spicy snack market, utilizing new media for brand building [30] - **Wancheng Group**: Considering overseas expansion as domestic growth slows, with potential for opening stores abroad [31] Additional Insights - The overall market in Southeast Asia is about one-third the size of China's market, presenting a significant growth opportunity for Chinese snack exports [18] - The trend of flavor snacks replacing traditional sugary snacks is evident, with flavor snacks projected to account for 37.3% of the market by 2024 [6][10] - The competitive landscape in Indonesia is fragmented, providing opportunities for Chinese companies to leverage innovative flavor products [9][19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding the opportunities and strategies for Chinese snack brands in the Southeast Asian market, highlighting both the potential and the challenges they face.

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28.89%, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 26.53% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.537 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.69%, with a net profit of 178 million yuan, an increase of 11.64% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Product Performance - The company experienced rapid growth in konjac products, with significant revenue contributions from various snack categories in 2024, including spicy snacks (1.962 billion yuan, +32.36%), baked potato snacks (1.158 billion yuan, +17.31%), and egg snacks (580 million yuan, +81.87%) [1] - The company launched a brand strategy in 2024, promoting "Big Demon King" and "Egg Emperor," which quickly gained popularity, with a specific product breaking the record for the fastest snack to reach 100 million yuan in sales [1] Group 2: Channel Performance - Direct sales in supermarkets saw a decline of 43.72% to 188 million yuan, while distribution and e-commerce channels grew by 34.01% and 39.95%, respectively, indicating a shift in the company's channel strategy [2] - The company is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia with its konjac products under the brand "Mowon," achieving breakthroughs in the Thai market and planning to extend globally [2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 30.69%, a decrease of 2.85 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to changes in channel structure with increased sales through e-commerce and bulk snack channels [3] - The company maintained good expense control, with selling and administrative expense ratios of 12.5% and 4.13% for 2024, and 11.24% and 3.44% for Q1 2025, respectively [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company anticipates continued high growth in its core categories, including konjac and quail eggs, and is adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 847 million, 1.046 billion, and 1.271 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 3.1, 3.83, and 4.66 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 28, 23, and 19 times, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

泛餐饮连锁业态：单店营收仍有缺口，但有企稳的趋势 1)收入端：必选属性更强的巴比食品、锅圈表现好于卤味企业。单店营收方面，大部分公司相比2020、 2021年仍有缺口，其中锅圈的单店营收2024年同比转正。2)利润端：2024年巴比食品和紫燕食品归母净 利率实现同比提升，拆解下来主要来自费用端的缩减。绝味食品、煌上煌由于费用端支出较多，利润端 未能释放成本红利。 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2025Q1以来消费品赛道市场关注度和估值水位都有提升， 该行维持看好内需消费的观点。1)零食是相对不受宏观周期影响的行业，行业也具备结构性成长机会， 后续从产业逻辑和企业的生命周期来看，该行推荐三类公司：一是以门店为基础的万辰集团，万家门店 之后还有业态延伸、利润率提升的逻辑。二是有能力成为全品类、全渠道的平台型公司。三是在品类、 渠道、内部管理等方面具备边际改善的公司。2)速冻和连锁业态都属于典型的顺周期板块，和下游餐饮 业态的修复关联度较高，基本面上该行认为很多公司已经有触底企稳的迹象，其次板块整体估值偏低 位，有上修空间。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 休闲零食：行业具备结构性成长机会，机遇诸多 行业的成长性 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage sector as "Overweight" for 2024 and Q1 2025 [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a slowdown, with 2024 revenue and net profit expected to grow by 2% and 4% year-on-year, respectively. For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit are projected to increase by 1% and 0.2% year-on-year, indicating overall deceleration [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 1,089.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2%, and net profit at 220.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4%. The growth rate has decreased by 4.9 percentage points for revenue and 12.7 percentage points for net profit compared to the previous year [7][8] 2. Subsector Performance 2.1. Baijiu (Chinese liquor) - The baijiu sector is facing demand pressure, with revenue growth for high-end, mid-range, and regional baijiu expected to be 12%, 3%, and 0% respectively in 2024. Net profit growth is projected at 11%, -1%, and -7% respectively, indicating a clear performance differentiation among brands [12][14] 2.2. Beer - The beer sector is showing signs of recovery, with Q1 2025 revenue increasing by 4% and net profit by 11%. However, the average price per ton is under pressure, with a slight decline in prices observed [47][48] 2.3. Snacks - The snack segment is experiencing structural growth, with revenue growth of 18% in Q4 2024 and 2% in Q1 2025, although the latter is affected by high base effects and the timing of the Spring Festival [4][8] 2.4. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector maintains a good growth trajectory, with revenue growth of 3% and net profit growth of 1% in Q1 2025, driven by strong performance from leading brands [4][8] 2.5. Dairy Products - The dairy sector faced a decline in 2024, with revenue down 7% and net profit down 27%. However, there are signs of improvement in Q1 2025 [4][8] 2.6. Seasonings - The seasoning sector is showing marginal improvement, with revenue growth of 3% and net profit growth of 7% in Q1 2025 [4][8] 2.7. Food Supply Chain - The food supply chain sector is under pressure due to increased competition, with revenue down 5% and net profit down 13% in Q1 2025 [4][8] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests overweight positions in high-quality growth stocks within the baijiu sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, as well as in snack companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjin. In the beer sector, it recommends stocks like Qingdao Beer and Zhujiang Beer [4][8]