Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral trading returns to a wait - and - see approach; focus on positive arbitrage entry opportunities when the basis partially falls; pay attention to the fluctuation range of the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Adopt a short - long strategy on dips [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral trading is on a temporary wait - and - see; consider establishing long - spot positive arbitrage positions in batches [5][7] - Iron Ore: Wait for the conflict to ease and the crude oil price to fall back before shorting iron ore [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: After the release of market sentiment, be cautious about chasing high prices. The black sector currently has weak supply and demand. In the future, it may enter a stage of high supply and demand. The spillover effect of the energy - chemical sector may drive up coal prices, but after many varieties hit the daily limit on Monday, chasing long positions requires caution [2] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Due to the continuation of geopolitical conflicts, the prices are supported by supply disruptions and cost increases. However, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, high inventory, and strong resistance to price increases. The basis is weakening, so it is not recommended to chase high prices [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Geopolitical conflicts affect the market. The futures market is dominated by geopolitical themes. Market volatility is expected to intensify. Speculators can use call option strategies, and industrial clients can consider establishing long - spot positive arbitrage positions [5] - Iron Ore: With the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, risk assets fluctuate more. It is not recommended to short black varieties, especially coal. There is a certain inventory replenishment expectation, but port inventory is a pressure factor. Wait for the conflict to ease to short iron ore [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On March 9, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3147 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan, 1.29%), HC2610 at 3282 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan, 1.39%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3119 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan, 1.30%), HC2605 at 3270 yuan/ton (up 51 yuan, 1.58%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: On March 9, the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread was 151 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.98 (down 0.02), etc [1] Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On March 9, Shanghai rebar was at 3230 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3280 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), etc. The billet - steel price difference was 270 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On March 9, Ganqimaodu coking fine coal was at 1175 yuan/ton (unchanged), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) at 1480 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Iron Ore**: On March 9, Rizhao Port PB fines were at 779 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan), Shou'an Port Super Special fines at 660 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan) [1] Basis - On March 9, the HC main contract basis was 10 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), the RB main contract basis was 111 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan), etc [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Geopolitical situation may change, and attention should be paid to the rebound opportunities of stock index. The current geopolitical situation may ease, which may drive the price rebound of other assets, but one should remain vigilant as there are still "aftershock" risks [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In China, the CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months. Overseas, Trump said the war between the US and Iran might end soon [2] - **Stock Market Performance**: A - share market: The three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% to close at 4096.6 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.64%. Most sector indexes declined, with coal, computer, and power equipment industries leading the gains, and communication, transportation, beauty care, and national defense and military industries falling more than 2%. The market turnover on that day was about 2.7 trillion yuan. Overseas: The three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 1.38% to 22695.95 points [2] - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of all IC and IM contracts rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] 3.2 Strategy - The seesaw effect between crude oil and other assets is prominent recently. The current geopolitical situation may ease, which may drive the price rebound of other assets, but one should remain vigilant as there are still "aftershock" risks [3] 3.3 Charts and Tables - **Macroeconomic Charts**: Include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [6][10][8] - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on March 9, 2026, shows that all indexes declined to varying degrees. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.74%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.64%, etc. Also include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13][14] - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest and trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the open interest of IF was 147,766, an increase of 53,708, and the trading volume was 290,004, an increase of 18,910 [17] - **Basis**: The basis of all contracts of IC and IM rebounded. For example, the basis of the current - month contract of IF was - 16.26, a decrease of 1.82 [34] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are provided, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc. [39][41]

Group 1: Industry Insights on Holiday Consumption - The bright performance of holiday consumption during the Spring Festival in 2026 is attributed to a combination of the holiday consumption pulse effect, intensified policy support, and an extended holiday duration [1][12] - Service consumption saw a significant increase, with tourism spending rising by 18.7% year-on-year, while retail and catering consumption grew by 5.7%, surpassing the previous year's growth rates [1][12] - The pulse effect of holiday consumption is particularly pronounced among wage earners, whose consumption behavior is more reliant on holiday windows, leading to concentrated spending during the holiday period [12][13] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Policy Impact - The high growth in goods consumption during the holiday is primarily driven by the implementation of the "old-for-new" policy, rather than a significant holiday pulse effect [12][13] - Sales of six categories of home appliances and four categories of digital products benefiting from the "old-for-new" subsidies increased by 21.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing overall goods consumption growth during the holiday [12][13] - The overall consumer demand remains weak when combining data from January and February, indicating that the foundation for a comprehensive recovery is not yet solid [4][12] Group 3: Sector-Specific Performance - In the energy and resources sector, coal supply constraints have intensified, while demand remains weak and stable, leading to a mixed price performance [3][26] - The real estate sector experienced a notable decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes, with investment continuing to drop during the seasonal low [3][34] - The financial sector saw an increase in A-share market activity, with new credit issuance exceeding expectations in January [3][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The transmission of consumer recovery from corporate profit stabilization to disposable income growth is critical for future consumption trends [2][13] - The ongoing decline in disposable income growth, which was approximately 4.3% year-on-year as of December 2025, poses a constraint on consumption [2][13] - The adjustment of consumption targets by local governments for 2026 indicates a cautious outlook for overall consumer recovery, with many provinces lowering their retail sales growth targets [2][13]

黑色建材日报 | 2026-03-10 地缘冲突升级，原料持续走强 钢材：市场情绪转好，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日盘面震荡上行，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3119元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3270元/吨。昨日，全国建材成交11.6 万吨。 供需与逻辑： 近期宏观预期扰动增加，通胀预期升温，能化带动商品走势。当前建材依旧维持供需两弱局面，库存季节性回升， 基本面矛盾并不突出，上下空间均较为有限。板带材产量下降，日均铁水产量下降明显。目前钢厂维持基本生产 利润，预期两会后铁水产量逐步回升，板材消费力度尚可，需求有望进一步改善，库存压制价格表现。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、产业政策、库存变化、需求复苏、成本支撑等。 铁矿：发运有所回落，矿价震荡上行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石价格震荡上行。现货方面，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随行就市；钢厂采购以刚需 为主，现货市场成交少。3月9日全国主港铁矿累计成交68.7万吨，环比上涨1.48%；本周平均每日成交68.7万吨， 环比下跌14.76% 供应方面：本期全球发运总量环比下降13.3%，澳洲，巴西发运量有所回落，其他国 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Report Date: March 10, 2026 [1] Group 2: Price Information - **Domestic Coking Coal Prices** - Liulin Main Coking Coal: Latest price is 1483.00, with a year - on - year change of 14.08% [2] - Raw Coal Port Pick - up Price: Latest price is 1020.00, with a daily change of - 1.00, weekly change of 25.00, monthly change of - 7.00, and year - on - year change of 15.91% [2] - Shaheyi Meng 5: Latest price is 1370.00, with a weekly change of - 30.00, monthly change of - 60.00, and year - on - year change of 7.03% [2] - Anze Main Coking Coal: Latest price is 1460.00, with a daily change of - 20.00, weekly change of - 60.00, monthly change of - 170.00, and year - on - year change of 12.31% [2] - **International Coking Coal Prices** - Peak Downs: Latest price is 215.00, with a weekly change of - 3.00, monthly change of - 7.00, and annual change of 27.00 [2] - Goonyella: Latest price is 215.00, with a weekly change of - 3.00, monthly change of - 7.00, and annual change of 26.00 [2] - **Futures Prices** - Futures Contract 05: Latest price is 1166.50, with a daily change of 59.50, weekly change of 67.00, monthly change of - 9.00, and year - on - year change of 9.63% [2] - Futures Contract 09: Latest price is 1264.00, with a daily change of 60.00, weekly change of 65.50, monthly change of 10.50, and year - on - year change of 12.11% [2] - Futures Contract 01: Latest price is 1480.50, with a daily change of 67.50, weekly change of 86.00, monthly change of 50.50, and year - on - year change of 25.47% [2] Group 3: Inventory Information - Total Inventory: Latest is 3786.56, with a weekly change of - 5.93, monthly change of - 411.38, and year - on - year change of - 8.30% [2] - Coal Mine Inventory: Latest is 286.26, with a weekly change of 28.60, monthly change of 21.61, and year - on - year change of - 23.29% [2] - Port Inventory: Latest is 271.97, with a weekly change of 13.56, monthly change of - 14.41, and year - on - year change of - 34.64% [2] - Steel Mill Coking Coal Inventory: Latest is 792.46, with a weekly change of - 27.89, monthly change of - 21.90, and year - on - year change of 3.08% [2] - Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory: Latest is 998.86, with a weekly change of - 80.23, monthly change of - 235.93, and year - on - year change of 25.00% [2] Group 4: Other Information - Coking Capacity Utilization: Latest is 73.95, with a weekly change of - 0.41, monthly change of 1.75, and year - on - year change of 4.33% [2] - Coking Coke Inventory: Latest is 85.89, with a weekly change of - 0.20, monthly change of - 0.44, and year - on - year change of - 1.16% [2] - **Futures Basis and Spread** - 05 Basis: Latest is - 100.06, with a daily change of - 59.50, weekly change of - 72.75, monthly change of 3.25, and year - on - year change of 0.95 [2] - 09 Basis: Latest is - 197.56, with a daily change of - 60.00, weekly change of - 71.25, monthly change of - 16.25, and year - on - year change of 0.20 [2] - 01 Basis: Latest is - 414.06, with a daily change of - 67.50, weekly change of - 91.75, monthly change of - 56.25, and year - on - year change of 0.91 [2] - 5 - 9 Spread: Latest is - 97.50, with a daily change of - 0.50, weekly change of 1.50, monthly change of - 19.50, and year - on - year change of 0.54 [2] - 9 - 1 Spread: Latest is - 216.50, with a daily change of - 7.50, weekly change of - 20.50, monthly change of - 40.00, and year - on - year change of 3.12 [2] - 1 - 5 Spread: Latest is 314.00, with a daily change of 8.00, weekly change of 19.00, monthly change of 59.50, and year - on - year change of 1.71 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [5]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading low-cost coal producer in Australia, with a strong focus on high-quality thermal coal products primarily exported to the Asia-Pacific region [4]. - The company is expected to experience a rebound in both volume and price in 2026, following a decrease in volume and price in 2025, with a notable increase in profitability anticipated due to rising coal prices [4][5]. - The company maintains a low debt level, supporting high dividend payouts, with a commitment to distribute 50% of net profit or free cash flow, whichever is higher [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company operates eight coal mines, producing approximately 70 million tons of raw coal and 55 million tons of saleable coal annually, with a significant portion of sales directed towards China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan [4]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company expects a revenue of AUD 595 million and a net profit of AUD 44 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.3% and 63.8%, respectively [4][6]. - The average selling price for coal in 2025 is projected to be AUD 146 per ton, down 17% from the previous year, with a significant market premium for high-quality thermal and metallurgical coal [4]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of AUD 867 million, AUD 1.31 billion, and AUD 1.78 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 7.68 for 2026 [6]. - The report highlights a strong potential for profit growth, with expected increases in both revenue and net profit in the coming years [5][6]. Market Position - The company benefits from a favorable market position due to its cost advantages and high-quality coal products, which are expected to command premium prices in the market [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a positive trend with significant gains in the ChiNext index, driven by a rebound in technology stocks and specific sectors like computing hardware and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][3]. Market Performance - As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.57%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.47% [2]. - The total market capitalization reached 90,876 billion, with a trading volume of 1.6 trillion, down by 190 billion from the previous trading day [4]. Sector Highlights - Technology stocks experienced a broad rebound, particularly in the computing hardware industry, with notable gains in CPO and circuit board sectors [3]. - The human-robot concept saw active trading, with stocks like Shoukai Co. and Fenglong Co. hitting the daily limit [5]. - The cultivated diamond sector showed strength, with stocks like Huanghe Xuanfeng and Sifangda rising over 10% following price increase announcements from manufacturers [6]. - The commercial aerospace sector also saw initial gains, with stocks like Xinjin Gang and Guanglian Aviation rising significantly [6]. Stock Movements - The ChiNext Index opened at 3,281.94, with a high of 3,298.01 and a low of 3,272.99, reflecting a market PE ratio of 40.8 and a PB ratio of 5.615 [3]. - The oil and gas sector faced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit down, influenced by a drop in crude oil prices [7][9]. Opening Trends - The A-share market opened positively, with all three major indices showing gains, particularly the ChiNext Index which opened up by 2.29% [8]. - The Hong Kong market also opened strong, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.31% and technology stocks performing well [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a leading low-cost coal producer in Australia, with high-quality thermal coal products primarily exported to the Asia-Pacific region [4]. - The company is expected to experience a rebound in both volume and price in 2026, following a decrease in volume and price in 2025, with a strong market elasticity for its products [4]. - The company has a solid balance sheet with low debt, supporting high dividend payouts, and its valuation presents a safety margin [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company operates eight coal mines, producing approximately 70 million tons of raw coal and 55 million tons of saleable coal annually, with a significant portion of its sales directed towards China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan [4]. - In 2025, the company’s sales volume of thermal coal accounted for 84% of its total sales, with a historical high of 38.6 million tons sold [4]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company reported a revenue of AUD 594.9 million and a net profit of AUD 44 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.3% and 63.8%, respectively [4][6]. - The average selling price for 2025 was AUD 146 per ton, down 17% from the previous year, with expectations of price recovery in 2026 [4]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s net profit is projected to rebound significantly in the coming years, with estimates of AUD 866 million in 2026, AUD 1.312 billion in 2027, and AUD 1.775 billion in 2028 [6]. - The projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 7.68, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [6].

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector in the A-share market experienced a collective decline following a significant drop in oil prices, with major companies seeing substantial losses in their stock prices [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major coal stocks such as China Coal Energy fell over 6%, while Jiangxi Copper Equipment dropped more than 5% [1]. - Other companies like Shanxi Black Cat, Yanzhou Coal, and Haohua Energy saw declines exceeding 4% [1]. - A broader range of companies, including China Shenhua and Shanxi Coking Coal, experienced declines of over 2% [1]. Group 2: Stock Data Summary - China Coal Energy (601898) reported a decline of 6.65%, with a total market value of 225.3 billion and a year-to-date increase of 16.99% [2]. - Jiangxi Copper Equipment (600397) saw a decrease of 5.62%, with a market capitalization of 19.1 billion and a year-to-date increase of 19.32% [2]. - Shanxi Black Cat (601015) experienced a drop of 4.14%, with a market value of 9.457 billion and a year-to-date increase of 4.63% [2]. - Other notable declines include Haohua Energy (600188) down 4.09% and China Shenhua (601088) down 2.92%, with respective market values of 195.2 billion and 924.9 billion [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The fundamentals of coal and coking coal temporarily maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The recent sharp price fluctuations in the energy and chemical sector have a certain impact on the market sentiment of coking coal. Short - term risk control should be noted [3] Group 3: Summary by Category Market Performance - Yesterday, coking coal futures strengthened following the energy and chemical sector, hitting a daily limit during the session but then opening and falling back. The continuous expectation of overseas geopolitical conflicts decreased, and the prices of varieties such as crude oil significantly corrected. On the spot side, steel mills' first - round reduction of coking prices has been gradually implemented, and the prices of coking coal in production areas have been reduced by 20 - 70 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Last week, coal mines continued the resumption process. After the Lantern Festival, coal mines in major production areas basically fully resumed production. Data shows that the daily production of raw coal and clean coal last week was 1.829 million tons and 748,000 tons respectively, an increase of 313,000 tons and 99,000 tons compared with the previous week. At the import end, after the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has returned to a relatively high level. The average daily customs clearance volume last week was 186,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase [3] Demand - Currently, important meetings are being held, and some regional steel mills are implementing phased production restrictions, with a significant decline in hot metal production. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces was 2.276 million tons, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed the raw material inventory in the factory. The impact of environmental protection production - restriction policies will still exist this week, and it is expected to gradually recover next week [3]