Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant volatility observed in precious metals and non-ferrous metals [3][4][7]. Precious Metals - Silver futures experienced a drastic drop, with SHFE silver contracts falling by 15%, while gold also saw a decline of over 5% at one point during the trading session [15][31]. - The recent sell-off in precious metals is attributed to a combination of profit-taking by investors and increased trading costs due to margin hikes (gold to 9%, silver to 18%) [7][23]. - Analysts suggest that the macroeconomic environment remains bearish, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a tightening stance to control inflation, which diminishes support for precious metal prices [31][30]. Coal and Coke - The main contract for coking coal fell by 3.68% to 1138.5 yuan/ton, while coke prices decreased by 2.64% to 1698.5 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand and ongoing inventory accumulation at steel mills [16][17]. - The market is expected to continue facing weak demand post-holiday, with a focus on inventory digestion rather than new purchases [32][17]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, with WTI and Brent crude both dropping over 3% recently [33][34]. - The SC crude oil contract showed relative resilience, closing down only 0.37% at 465.4 yuan/barrel, despite initial larger declines [33][34]. - Market analysts note that while geopolitical risks remain, concerns about direct military conflict in the Middle East have eased, leading to a complex interplay of supply and demand factors affecting oil prices [34][18].

1. Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] 2. Investment Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Unilateral Strategies - RB2605: Price at 3077, expected to be volatile and weak. Influenced by factors such as a decline in the weekly output of five major steel products, significant increase in factory and social inventories, large drop in weekly demand, slow resumption of steel production, pressure on steel raw fuel prices, and a decline in steel costs [6]. - HC2605: Price at 3251, expected to be weak. The gap in imported ore arrivals may appear in the next few weeks, and the Indonesian coal export policy is affecting the market. Wait for the pre - Spring Festival negative factors to be realized [6]. - J2605: Price at 1698.5, relatively resistant to decline. Affected by the Indonesian government's production quota reduction policy, the loss of coking enterprises has narrowed significantly, and there is support from the expected tightening of imported coal supply [6]. - JM2605: Price at 1138.5, relatively resistant to decline. Affected by the Indonesian government's policy, the recent Mongolian coal customs clearance has fluctuated, and there is support from the expected tightening of imported coal supply [6]. - I2605: Price at 760.5, expected to be weak first and then strong. Australian and Brazilian shipments have recovered while arrivals have declined. The output of five major steel products has turned down, and demand has decreased. Steel mills' pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end [6]. 2.2 Spread Strategies - For cross - period and cross - variety spreads such as RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM, no clear trading directions are given [6]. 3. Core Views - Steel: The price has limited room for continuous decline, but the short - term weakness is difficult to reverse. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, black commodity futures may turn from weak to strong [8][32]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Supported by the expected tightening of imported coal supply, they may remain relatively resistant to decline. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, coke and coking coal futures may enter a new upward cycle [10][54]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to be weak first and then strong. High port inventories and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space. One can consider buying hedging or investment strategies at the lower end of the shock range [12][85]. 4. Industry Analysis by Category 4.1 Steel 4.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of February 6, the price of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined [13]. - Production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased, while the average daily output of key large and medium - sized enterprises' crude steel decreased. The average daily iron - water output increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnace steel mills decreased significantly [14][17]. - Inventory: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [17][22]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the disk profit of rebar 2605 contract showed a narrowing loss [27]. - Profit: The loss of long - process steel mills' rebar spot tonnage profit narrowed, while that of short - process steel mills continued to fall [31]. 4.1.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The price has limited room for continuous decline, but the short - term weakness is difficult to reverse. Wait for the pre - Spring Festival negative factors to be realized [31][32]. - Basis: The rebar basis is expected to fluctuate between 100 - 170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate between - 30 - 30 yuan/ton [35][36]. 4.2 Coke and Coking Coal 4.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of February 6, the price of major coke spot markets remained stable, and some coking coal markets declined [38]. - Production: The daily output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke production increased [38]. - Inventory: Coke inventories in ports, steel enterprises, and coking plants all increased, and the loss of independent coking enterprises narrowed [41]. - Import and Inventory of Coking Coal: In 2025, the import of coking coal decreased. The port coking coal inventory decreased, while that of coking plants and steel enterprises increased [46]. - Production of Raw Coal and Coke: In 2025, the production of raw coal and coke increased [51]. 4.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and Coking Coal: Supported by the expected tightening of imported coal supply, they may remain relatively resistant to decline. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, they may enter a new upward cycle [53][54]. 4.3 Iron Ore 4.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price and Spread: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port declined. The spreads of some high - grade and low - grade ores changed [55]. - Inventory and Shipping: 45 - port iron ore inventory increased, and the daily shipping volume increased. Steel mills' import ore inventory days increased [61]. - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments showed different trends, and the overall shipment volume decreased. The arrival volume is expected to show a trend of low first and high later [69][70]. - Domestic Production: In 2025, domestic iron ore production decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of mines decreased. The production before the Spring Festival is expected to weaken [70]. - Transaction Volume and Cost: The 5 - day moving average of the main port iron ore transaction volume increased, and the average iron - water cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [73]. - Iron - Water Output and Related Indicators: The average daily iron - water output increased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate increased [75]. - Steel Production and Inventory: The actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased, the consumption decreased, and the inventory increased [78]. - Transportation Cost: The main iron ore freight prices and related freight indices decreased [80]. 4.3.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: The price is expected to be weak first and then strong. High port inventories and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space. One can consider buying hedging or investment strategies at the lower end of the shock range [85]. - Basis: The basis between the spot price of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the main futures contract is expected to fluctuate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [86].

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd. has received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for a significant asset restructuring project involving the acquisition of various subsidiaries from its controlling shareholder, China Energy Investment Corporation, and the issuance of A-shares to raise supporting funds [2][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves the acquisition of 100% equity stakes in multiple companies, including Guoyuan Power Co., Xinjiang Energy Chemical Co., and others, with a total transaction value of 133.598 billion yuan [3][4]. - The payment structure for the transaction consists of 30% in shares and 70% in cash, aimed at enhancing the company's core business capacity and resource reserves [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Resources and Earnings - Post-transaction, the coal reserves of China Shenhua will increase to 6.849 billion tons, representing a growth rate of 64.72%, while the recoverable coal reserves will rise to 3.45 billion tons, with a growth rate of 97.71% [4]. - The coal production capacity is expected to reach 512 million tons, reflecting a growth rate of 56.57%, and the basic earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to increase to 3.15 yuan, enhancing by 6.10% [4]. Group 3: Strategic Benefits - The completion of this transaction will create a complete industrial chain for China Shenhua, covering coal mining, coal power generation, coal chemical production, and logistics, significantly strengthening the company's operational capabilities [4]. - This restructuring will also resolve the long-standing issue of competition with China Energy Group, aligning with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission's encouragement for state-owned enterprises to enhance core competitiveness through mergers and acquisitions [4].

黑色产业链日报 2026/02/06 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

焦煤焦炭周度报告 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 | 报告摘要 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | PART 01 | 1. | 多数唐山钢厂已基本完成冬储补库，虽然今年有较多的钢厂存在有冬储补库行为，但是冬储增量不大。据Mysteel统计，目 | | 前唐山钢厂焦炭可用天数平均约11天，多数钢厂在去年12月及今年1月份已陆续在增库，当前库存较去年12月初平均库存天 | | | | 数增加了约2天。 | | | | 2. | 2月3日据悉印尼部分矿山暂停现货交易，引起中印市场高度关注及讨论。2月5日印尼矿产与煤炭司司长表示，2026年煤炭开 | | | 市场焦点 | 采工作计划的核准文件尚未正式发布，市场上流传的削减信息被官方认定为无效信息。 | | | 3. | 13省2026年政府工作报告中提及基建行业相关的内容。其中，河南实施1000个以上省重点项目，年度完成投资1万亿元；陕 | | | 西实施省级重点项目640个、完成投资3500亿元以上。 | | | | 1. | 临近春节假期，国内焦煤供应端小幅收缩。 | | | 2. | 炼焦煤库存去化有所不畅。 | | | ...

双焦：煤矿陆续放假，现货成交趋于冷清 研究员：郭超 期货从业证号：F03119918 投资咨询证号：Z0022905 2026年02月06日 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 228/210/172 181/181/181 221/221/221 208/218/234 投资逻辑与交易策略 逻辑分析 ◼ 近日焦煤期货受印尼煤炭政策消息影响波动较大，情绪及资金交易为主，实质性影响还有待观察。2月5日印尼矿产与 煤炭司司长表示，2026年煤炭开采工作计划的核准文件尚未正式发布，市场上流传的削减信息被官方认定为无效信息。 另司长表示正在研究将2026年煤炭产量目标下调至6亿吨的可行性，并强调减产措施将按比例、差异化措施，且新一 轮产量配额分配的核心考量依据是企业向国家缴纳的非税财政收入。印尼近年煤炭相关政策实际执行落地效果不佳， 往往 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 6 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 煤焦低位整理 核心观点 焦炭：截至 2 月 6 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量 合计 110.38 万吨，周环比增 0.53 万吨，同比下降 1.62 万吨；需求端 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 228.58 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.6 万吨/天，同 比增加 0.14 万吨。整体来看，本周焦炭基本面并无明显变化，供需两端 均低位小幅增加，缺乏单边动能，预计短期内焦炭期货维持低位震荡格 局。 焦煤：截至 2 月 6 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量为 75.5 万 吨，周环比下降 1.6 万吨。临近春节，焦煤产量将迎来短期收缩，但节后 预计可迅速恢复。进口方面，1 月甘其毛都口岸合计通关 30,877 车，虽 环比 12 月下降 17.2%，但较去年同期大幅增长 42.9%，蒙煤进口量仍处于 较高水平。需求端，独立焦化厂与钢厂焦化厂的焦炭日均产量合计为 110.38 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.53 万吨。整体来看，焦煤基本面支撑有 限，中 ...

Core Insights - Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH) reported its main operational data for January 2026, indicating a coal production of 15.19 million tons and self-produced coal sales of 13.91 million tons [1] - The total electricity generation for the month was 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours, with total electricity sales reaching 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours [1] Group 1 - The coal production in January 2026 was 15.19 million tons [1] - The self-produced coal sales amounted to 13.91 million tons [1] - The total electricity generation for January was 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours [1] Group 2 - The total electricity sales for the month reached 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours [1]

Core Insights - Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SH) reported its main operational data for January 2026, indicating a coal production of 15.19 million tons and self-produced coal sales of 13.91 million tons [1] - The total electricity generation for the month reached 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours, with total electricity sales amounting to 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours [1] Production Data - Coal production in January 2026 was 15.19 million tons [1] - Self-produced coal sales for the same period were 13.91 million tons [1] Electricity Generation - Total electricity generation in January 2026 was 4.488 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - Total electricity sales during the month were 4.244 billion kilowatt-hours [1]

证券代码：601225 证券简称：陕西煤业 公告编号：2026-002 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2026 | 年 | 2025 | 年 | | 同比变化（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1 月 | 累计 | 1 月 | 累计 | 1 月 | 累计 | | 一、煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 煤炭产量 | 万吨 | 1,519.00 | 1,519.00 | 1,428.16 | 1,428.16 | 6.36 | 6.36 | | 自产煤销量 | 万吨 | 1,391.00 | 1,391.00 | 1,293.39 | 1,293.39 | 7.55 | 7.55 | | 二、发电 | | | | | | | | | 总发电量 | 亿千瓦时 | 44.88 | 44.88 | 33.18 | 33.18 | 35.26 | 35.26 | | 总售电量 | 亿千瓦时 | 42.44 | 42.44 | 31.10 | 31.10 | 36.46 | 36.46 | 以上主要运营数据来自本公司内部统计，可能 ...