Core Viewpoint - The snack brand "Liuliu Mei," produced by Liuliu Guoyuan Group Co., Ltd., is attempting to go public again after six years, having previously withdrawn its A-share application in 2019 due to concerns over product singularity [1][2]. Company Overview - Liuliu Guoyuan, founded in Wuhu, Anhui, initially focused on pastry production before launching the "Liuliu Mei" brand in 2001 to meet the market demand for green plum products [1]. - The brand has expanded its sales to international markets, including Australia, Russia, Japan, and South Korea [1]. Financial Performance - The company has diversified its product offerings, with three main products—dried plums, plum jelly, and western plums—generating nearly 1.6 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 99.5% of Liuliu Mei's performance [2]. - In 2024, revenue from dried plum snacks is projected to be 973 million yuan, representing 60.3% of total revenue; plum jelly is expected to generate 410 million yuan (25.4%); and western plum products are anticipated to bring in 224 million yuan (13.8%) [2]. Market Position - Liuliu Guoyuan ranks first in China's fruit snack industry with a market share of 4.9% in retail sales for 2024, and it holds a 45.7% market share in the natural jelly sector [2]. - The introduction of the low-calorie plum jelly product has become a new growth driver for the company, leveraging advanced preservation technology and natural ingredients [2]. Challenges - Despite the growth in plum jelly products, the company still relies heavily on dried plum products for revenue, indicating ongoing challenges in reducing dependence on a single product line [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.89%, and a net profit of 640 million yuan, up 26.53% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company continues to expand its product categories and channels, with significant growth in its major products, particularly in the spicy snacks and dried fruit segments [2][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its cost structure and improving operational efficiency, which has led to a decrease in expense ratios [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 5.304 billion yuan, with a net profit of 640 million yuan, and a net profit margin of 12.07% [1][3]. - The revenue growth rates for major product categories in 2024 were as follows: spicy snacks at 32.36%, deep-sea snacks at 9.10%, baked potato products at 17.31%, and dried fruits and nuts at 81.50% [2]. Channel Expansion - The company is actively expanding its sales channels, with revenue from direct supermarkets, distribution, and e-commerce channels reported at 1.88 billion yuan, 3.956 billion yuan, and 1.159 billion yuan respectively in 2024 [2]. - The company is also entering high-end membership stores and overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, to drive future growth [2]. Cost Structure and Efficiency - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 30.69%, with a slight decline in Q1 2025 due to changes in channel structure [3]. - The company has successfully reduced its sales and management expense ratios, indicating improved operational efficiency [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for the company are maintained at 855 million yuan for 2025 and 1.225 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding EPS estimates of 3.13 yuan and 4.49 yuan [4][10]. - The current P/E ratios are projected to be 29 for 2025, 24 for 2026, and 20 for 2027, reflecting a favorable valuation outlook [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The innovative "queue-free" business model, particularly in the health beverage sector, has significantly enhanced consumer engagement and purchasing behavior by leveraging the psychology of seeking "free" products, transforming consumption into an investment-like expectation [3][17]. Group 1: Application Strategies in Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) - The "queue-free" model allows consumers to receive refunds from a pool funded by new users, creating a compelling incentive for initial purchases [3]. - User incentives include a direct referral acceleration mechanism, where each new referral increases the cashback priority by 30%, and a repurchase leverage effect that accelerates cashback by 10% on subsequent purchases [8]. - The low entry barrier for store franchises, requiring only a deposit of 28,000 yuan, encourages rapid expansion, with profits of 2 yuan per bag sold, and a structured commission system for agents [9]. - A crash prevention mechanism, such as the order-splitting strategy, ensures liquidity in the cashback pool, maintaining the sustainability of the model [10]. Group 2: Product Selection and Pricing - High-frequency consumer products, such as snacks and beverages, are prioritized, with a focus on health-oriented items that align with consumer trends [7]. - Pricing strategies involve setting product prices between 15 to 25 yuan, with 50% to 60% of the price entering the queue pool to balance profitability and consumer appeal [7]. Group 3: User Incentive System Construction - The direct referral acceleration mimics the original model, enhancing cashback priority for users who successfully refer new customers [8]. - The repurchase acceleration mechanism increases cashback speed by 10% for repeat purchases, fostering brand loyalty and long-term consumer relationships [8]. Group 4: Channel Expansion and Store Collaboration - A low-threshold franchise model for convenience stores and supermarkets encourages participation, with profit-sharing of 10% to 15% on sales [9]. - A recruitment system for agents incentivizes the development of new stores, with commissions of 0.5 to 1 yuan per product sold [9]. Group 5: Optimization in the Health Product Sector - Precise product positioning targeting specific demographics, such as office workers and seniors, is essential for competitive differentiation [12]. - Collaborations with reputable research institutions enhance product credibility and market competitiveness [12]. Group 6: Online and Offline Sales Integration - Establishing an official e-commerce platform and leveraging major online marketplaces improves consumer access and shopping experience [15]. - Collaborations with pharmacies and fitness centers for product displays and sales points facilitate targeted marketing efforts [15]. Group 7: Risk Control and Compliance Operations - Strict adherence to national quality standards and regulations ensures product safety and efficacy, mitigating potential trust crises [16]. - Compliance with advertising laws prevents misleading claims and protects brand reputation [16]. Conclusion - By effectively utilizing the innovative "queue-free" model and adapting strategies for both FMCG and health products, the company is positioned to achieve strong performance and growth in new markets [17].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating to "Accumulate" [4][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 7.159 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.02%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 46 million yuan, compared to a profit of 180 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.732 billion yuan, down 29.34% year-on-year, with a net loss of 36 million yuan, contrasting with a profit of 62 million yuan in the same quarter of 2024 [1][2] - The company is undergoing adjustments across various business lines due to intensified competition and the impact of the Spring Festival timing [2] Revenue Analysis - In Q1 2025, online and offline channels generated revenues of 901 million yuan and 1.038 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting declines of 30.00% and 28.83% year-on-year [2] - The total number of stores decreased by 123 from the end of 2024, with 2,581 stores remaining as of the end of Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 26.14%, with a decline in Q1 2025 to 24.64%, down 1.78 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was -0.64%, indicating continued pressure on profitability [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been significantly reduced to 20 million yuan and 122 million yuan, respectively, representing decreases of 93.7% and 66.5% from previous estimates [4] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.05 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 237 times based on the current stock price [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - Wanchen Group (300972) experienced a significant drop in stock price, falling over 8% at one point, closing down 6.59% at 153.9 CNY, with a total market capitalization of 27.7 billion CNY. This decline comes after a period of record highs for the stock, reflecting volatility in the A-share market related to domestic consumption stocks [1][4]. Company Performance - Wanchen Group focuses on the bulk snack and edible mushroom business, with a daily production capacity of 379 tons for edible mushrooms, ranking among the top in the domestic industry [4]. - The company reported a net profit of 294 million CNY for 2024, marking a turnaround from losses, and achieved a net profit of 215 million CNY in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 33.44 times [4]. Market Context - The A-share market has seen a surge in domestic consumption stocks, with other notable performers including Yizhi Mogu, Yipin Hong, Huisheng Biological, Rejing Biological, and Anbiping [4]. - The government has prioritized boosting consumption and investment efficiency, with specific measures to enhance consumer capacity and improve the consumption environment, aiming to stimulate domestic demand [4][5]. Policy Support - Recent government meetings in Shanghai and Guangdong have outlined targeted actions to stimulate consumption, including expanding service and exhibition consumption, and promoting domestic and inbound tourism [5]. - Jiangxi province has committed to expanding domestic demand comprehensively, focusing on major project construction and innovative consumption models to enhance market vitality [5].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the new consumption sector is driven by demand upgrades, technological changes, and policy support, creating significant investment opportunities in the market [12]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - The "May Day" holiday saw a surge in consumer activity, with events like the Guangzhou Firefly Exhibition and various pop-up events in Shanghai attracting large crowds, particularly among the Z generation [2][4]. - New consumption scenarios are invigorating the market, with a focus on "self-indulgent" and "emotional" consumption trends led by younger consumers [4][6]. - Fund managers are increasingly recognizing the potential of the new consumption market, with some actively researching and investing in related companies [4][6]. Group 2: Stock Performance - New consumption concept stocks have become a focal point for capital, with significant stock price increases observed in companies like Lao Pu Gold, Wei Long, and Pop Mart, with some stocks doubling in value [5][10]. - In the A-share market, leading companies in the snack and pet economy sectors have also seen substantial stock price increases, with Wanchen Group's stock price doubling and Zhongchong shares rising by 58% [5][10]. - The upcoming wave of restaurant industry IPOs is expected to further enhance market dynamics, with companies like Mixue Group and Gu Ming achieving significant stock price increases post-IPO [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are shifting their focus from traditional consumption growth to identifying structural opportunities within the new consumption sector, which is characterized by high engagement and demand for personalized products [9][12]. - The performance of funds heavily invested in new consumption stocks, such as Guangfa Growth Navigator and Hengyue Craftsman, has been strong, with net asset values increasing significantly [9][10]. - The new consumption sector is seen as a key investment theme for the year, with fund managers planning to continue exploring opportunities in areas like trendy toys, gold jewelry, and pet products [13].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Views - The current value of domestic demand is highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong financial reports and sustained fundamentals. New consumption trends favor snacks, while traditional consumption is recommended for companies showing signs of recovery. The report emphasizes the strategy of "fishing in the domestic demand safe haven" and suggests prioritizing leading companies in the industry [1][23] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a transitional year for 2025, with a focus on companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms. The report also highlights investment opportunities in snack companies and seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest of the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets. The report suggests that the current external uncertainties, such as tariffs, enhance the value of domestic demand for liquor, potentially leading to a structural bull market in the sector [2][23] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu. The report also emphasizes the importance of "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery" strategies [2][23] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a rebound, with a focus on snack companies benefiting from category dividends and new product launches in membership stores. The report continues to recommend seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors, highlighting investment opportunities driven by retail transformation and cost cycles [1][27] - Recommended stocks include Salted Fish, Yili, Wanchen Group, Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Three Squirrels, and others [1][27] Performance Metrics - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 7.56% in 2024. In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue growth of 1.8% and a net profit growth of 2.25%. The report suggests that the industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies successfully navigating pressure tests [7][19] - Specific company performance includes Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, a growth of 11.56% [17] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.79 times earnings. The liquor sector's valuation is at 19.69 times, while beer and wine are at 27.67 and 74.88 times, respectively [39] - The report also tracks price trends for key liquor brands, indicating stability in prices for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [22][54]

Core Points - The FBIF Food Innovation Exhibition (FBIF Super Selection Conference) will take place from May 8-10, 2025, at the National Exhibition and Convention Center in Shanghai, featuring over 600 exhibitors and attracting more than 47,000 attendees [1][52]. - The exhibition will showcase over 2,000 innovative products and host the FBIF 2025 Food and Beverage Innovation Forum with more than 200 speakers and judges [1][52]. Exhibition Details - The exhibition will be held in halls 4.2, 5.2, and 6.2 of the National Exhibition and Convention Center, located at 333 Songze Avenue, Qingpu District, Shanghai [4][44]. - The exhibition hours are from 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM on May 8-9 and from 9:00 AM to 2:00 PM on May 10 [3]. Exhibitor Activities - Various exhibitors will host activities, including product tastings, brand membership promotions, and interactive games [5][12][18]. - Notable exhibitors include Innova Market Insights, which will present global food and beverage trends and insights into functional beverage innovations [8][10]. Audience Engagement - The exhibition will offer free admission tickets for consumers on May 10, while professional attendees can register for a three-day ticket [45][48]. - Attendees can participate in various interactive activities and receive promotional gifts by engaging with exhibitors [16][30][32]. Industry Focus - The exhibition aims to provide a professional platform for food companies to showcase innovations and foster industry development, covering sectors such as dairy, beverages, snacks, and functional foods [51][52].

大众品：表现分化，结构性增长。 1 ）啤酒： 25Q1 收入同比 +4% 、净利润同比 +11% ， 销量景气修 复吨价承压，成本优势利润率持续改善。 2 ）软饮料： 25Q1 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +1% ，继 续保持较好景气度，龙头亮各有亮点。 3 ）零食： 食品综合板块分化明显，其中新渠道和新品类驱动下 零食成长性凸显， 24Q4 、 25Q1 收入分别同比 +18% 、 +2% ， 25Q1 受高基数和春节提前等因素影 响业绩增速阶段性下滑。 4 ）乳制品： 2024 年（ A 股）收入同比 -7% 、净利润 -27% ，度过调整期 后 25Q1 景气度和毛销差边际改善。 5 ）调味品： 2024 年板块收入边际改善， 25Q1 业绩稳步增长， 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +7% 、毛利率同比 +1.6pct 。 6 ） 餐饮供应链： 竞争加剧导致 2024 年 板块利润承压， 25Q1 收入同比 -5% 、利润同比 -13% 环比降速。 风险提示： 消费复苏不及预期、市场竞争加剧、成本进一步上涨、食品安全问题。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月5日发布的 结构分化，重视成长——食品饮 ...