Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a diversified asset allocation strategy that aims for absolute returns rather than relying on a single asset class or index, utilizing various strategies across multiple asset types to enhance overall returns and reduce volatility [1]. Group 1: Equity Strategies - The equity strategy involves a high allocation to stock index options (150% to 200% position), utilizing a combination of long and short options to manage risk and capture upside potential [2]. - A high-dividend stock rotation strategy is employed with a 10% allocation, focusing on a diversified portfolio of around 100 high-dividend stocks to achieve excess returns over dividend indices, targeting an annualized excess return of 5% to 10% [3]. Group 2: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond strategy has been cleared out due to high valuations, with a focus on low-risk, fundamentally sound bonds previously held to enhance returns through rotation [4][5]. Group 3: Commodity Futures - A 20% allocation to commodity futures is based on value investing principles, targeting commodities at historical lows, particularly those below production costs, to minimize risk and enhance long-term returns [6]. Group 4: Arbitrage Strategies - The remaining capital is allocated to various low-risk arbitrage strategies, which contribute significantly to overall returns, with recent performance showing a 9% weekly return and a 46% annual return, exceeding expectations [7].

瑞安建业(00983)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月中期业绩，该集团取得营业额38.15亿港元，同比减少 6.9%;公司持有人应占亏损8300万港元，同比减少5.68%;每股基本亏损0.22港元。 尽管香港建筑业面临逆风，瑞安建业业务仍展现韧性，股东应占亏损较去年同期少6%。 集团建筑业务中的室内装修工程业务表现稳健，在香港及澳门市场均获得机构客户的大力支持，持续带 来稳定的贡献。 ...

智通财经APP讯，瑞安建业(00983)发布截至2025年6月30日止6个月中期业绩，该集团取得营业额38.15 亿港元，同比减少6.9%;公司持有人应占亏损8300万港元，同比减少5.68%;每股基本亏损0.22港元。 尽管香港建筑业面临逆风，瑞安建业业务仍展现韧性，股东应占亏损较去年同期少6%。 集团建筑业务中的室内装修工程业务表现稳健，在香港及澳门市场均获得机构客户的大力支持，持续带 来稳定的贡献。 ...

| 1866.13 | 1952.00 | 2071.00 | 2210.00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4.14 | 4.60 | 6.10 | 6.71 | | 56.88 | 60.83 | 66.05 | 72.15 | | 4.82 | 6.94 | 8.59 | 9.24 | | 10.11 | 9.78 | 9.87 | 9.92 | | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.18 | | 8.11 | 7.58 | 6.98 | 6.39 | | 市场数据 | 2025-08-26 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 601117 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 8.29 | | 上证指数 | 3,868.38 | | 总股本(万股) | 610,688 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 606.958 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 503 | 公司点评报告 ·建筑行业 E券|CGS 附录: 公司财务预测表 | 资产负债表(亿元) | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The Shandong Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a press conference to announce the leading cities, counties, and enterprises in the construction industry for 2024, along with the first batch of "Qilu Construction" brands for 2025 [2] - The evaluation identified five leading cities and ten leading counties, emphasizing the importance of scientific evaluation in guiding the development direction of the construction industry [2][3] - The total construction output value of the eight leading and developing cities accounts for 80% of the province's total, while the related counties and districts contribute 71% [3] Group 1 - The evaluation method considered various indicators such as development scale and outward orientation, including both traditional large-scale construction areas and rapidly developing regions [2] - The aim is to stimulate the internal motivation of local governments to strengthen the construction industry, creating a collaborative effort for high-quality development across provincial, municipal, and county levels [2][3] - The 50 leading enterprises in the construction industry are projected to have a total output value exceeding 900 billion, representing 45.4% of the total output from 13,000 enterprises in the province [3] Group 2 - The first batch of "Qilu Construction" brands includes 177 enterprise brands, 47 service brands, 37 component material brands, and 7 regional brands [3] - The provincial government plans to enhance the application of evaluation results and provide targeted support to leading regions and enterprises, encouraging smaller but rapidly developing areas to tap into their potential [4] - There will be a focus on brand management and development to leverage brand power for promoting the construction industry and achieving high-quality growth [4]

Group 1: Government Policies and Economic Initiatives - The State Council issued an opinion on the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan, aiming for deep integration of AI with six key sectors by 2027, with over 70% application penetration of new intelligent terminals and agents [1] - By 2030, AI is expected to fully empower high-quality development, with application penetration exceeding 90%, making the intelligent economy a significant growth driver for China's economy [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new round of fuel price adjustments, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 180 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton respectively, translating to a reduction of 0.14 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline [2] Group 2: Investment and Trade - Since 2012, China's outbound investment flow has ranked among the top three globally for 13 consecutive years, with over 50,000 enterprises established abroad by the end of 2024 [3] - China's outbound investment stock exceeds $3 trillion, maintaining a global share of 7.2% [3] Group 3: Company Performance - Cambrian reported a net profit of 1.038 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a turnaround from losses [5] - China Ping An's operating profit attributable to shareholders grew by 3.7% in the first half, with an interim dividend of 0.95 yuan per share [5] - Nongfu Spring's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 7.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.1% [6] - Northern Rare Earth reported a 45.24% increase in revenue and a staggering 1951.52% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half [6] - Victory Technology's net profit surged by 366.89% to 2.143 billion yuan in the first half [6] - Light Media's net profit increased by 371.55% to 2.229 billion yuan in the first half [6] Group 4: Market Trends and Insights - Citic Securities noted that improving liquidity supports a rebound in Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on innovative drugs and internet opportunities [6] - Guotai Junan predicts that the paper industry chain prices are likely to continue rising due to seasonal demand, collaboration among leading firms, and low inventory levels [7]

Core Viewpoint - Greenland Holdings Group Co., Ltd. reported significant declines in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting challenges in the real estate market and broader economic conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of approximately 94.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 18.06% compared to the same period last year [2]. - Total profit for the period was a loss of approximately 3.59 billion RMB, a decline of 466.14% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately -3.51 billion RMB, down 1,772.40% from the previous year [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was approximately -2.48 billion RMB, an improvement of 52.48% compared to the previous year [2]. - As of June 30, 2025, the net assets attributable to shareholders were approximately 60.68 billion RMB, a decrease of 5.23% from the end of the previous year [2]. Industry Overview - The company operates primarily in real estate and infrastructure, with a strong presence in both domestic and international markets [3][4]. - In the real estate sector, the company reported a contract sales amount of 33.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [4]. - The real estate market is experiencing a gradual recovery, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing expectations and activating demand [4][5]. - The infrastructure sector is benefiting from national initiatives to strengthen infrastructure construction, with the company involved in various projects across over 20 countries [6][7]. Business Segments - The real estate segment remains the core business, with a diverse portfolio including residential and commercial properties [4]. - The infrastructure segment has a total project value of approximately 628.2 billion RMB, with a focus on both housing construction and infrastructure projects [6]. - The financial segment is evolving with a focus on supply chain finance, digital finance, and special opportunity investments [9][10]. Market Conditions - The overall real estate market is showing signs of recovery, but the pace is uneven across different regions, with lower-tier cities lagging behind [5][8]. - Infrastructure investment is maintaining steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% in the first half of 2025 [8]. - The energy sector is also a key focus, with the company positioned as a coal supply platform in Shanghai, ensuring stable supply and cost control [12][13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing new business opportunities in consumption, including trade, tourism, and automotive sectors, to diversify its revenue streams [15][19]. - The establishment of the Greenland Global Commodity Trade Port aims to enhance international trade and logistics capabilities [15]. - The company is leveraging its strengths in technology and design within the infrastructure sector to maintain a competitive edge [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Layout of the bottom - position is as important as flexible offense. A basket of "high - dividend × low - volatility" dividend assets can provide a natural "shock absorber" for the portfolio, and the combination can withstand extreme market conditions by suppressing volatility with stable cash flows and low β and then capturing market mismatches with the remaining positions [3]. - To amplify returns in the dividend pool, a dual - screening approach is more reliable than relying solely on the "high - dividend" indicator. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility, earnings quality, or institutional holdings can eliminate potential risks and further increase the returns of general dividend assets [3]. - On top of the dividend bottom - position, there are systematic excess opportunities from the left - to - right shift of the industrial cycle. Priority should be given to companies with stable cash flows despite pressured profits. Industries such as cement, silicone, and phosphate chemicals are currently in the preferred range, while the photovoltaic chain is still in a state of "double losses in profit and cash flow". The overall allocation strategy involves initially establishing an observation position, increasing the position after confirming the leading indicators of the profit inflection point, and exiting when profits weaken again or the gross margin is inverted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bottom - Position Allocation Necessity: "Pure Left" and "Pure Right" Are Not Desirable - In a market with an increasing industry rotation center, it is crucial to build a long - term core position first. A 15 - year quarterly rotation experiment on 31 Shenwan primary industries shows that both extreme left - side bottom - fishing and extreme right - side chasing result in single - digit annualized returns and significant drawdowns. In contrast, a dividend portfolio characterized by "high - dividend × low - volatility" can provide double - digit annualized returns and keep drawdowns within an acceptable range. Therefore, increasing the exposure of "high - dividend + low - β" in the bottom - position can provide a safety cushion for the portfolio [7]. - Dividend assets are the optimal core bottom - position in terms of return - to - drawdown. Historical stress tests show that the dividend index has shallower drawdowns, a stable 3 - year rolling Sharpe ratio, and does not require market timing in the long - term perspective. It also has higher probabilities of achieving positive returns in different holding periods compared to most broad - based and style indices [10][12][21]. 3.2 Dividend Yield Single - Factor Trap - Selecting stocks based solely on the "high - dividend" factor often leads to choosing high - volatility stocks with limited return increases and large drawdowns. Adding a second filter such as low - volatility or earnings quality can improve the overall cost - effectiveness. Statistical regression shows that the dividend yield alone has a weak explanatory power for future returns [29]. - Several case studies illustrate different types of "false high - dividend" traps. For example, some companies rely on one - time gains to support high dividends, some have high dividends due to falling stock prices rather than improved profitability, and some have high dividends at the peak of the business cycle or due to high leverage. To avoid these traps, specific financial and operational criteria need to be set [37][40][44]. 3.3 High - Dividend Smart - Beta's Distortion Risk - Modified dividend indices such as "Dividend Quality" and "Dividend Potential" have larger fluctuations and deeper drawdowns than the CSI Dividend Index. Their style drift and uncontrolled risk exposure lead to higher volatility, especially in bear markets. The main reasons are their high - concentration weighting, high - valuation requirements, and frequent chasing of market highs [60][64]. - The CSI Dividend Index selects 100 stocks based on a three - year dividend yield with a diversified weighting, while the Dividend Quality and Dividend Potential indices select 50 stocks by adding factors such as ROE and EPS growth, with a more concentrated and high - chasing weighting. As a result, they are more likely to suffer from double - kills of earnings and valuation when the market weakens [64]. 3.4 Potential Ways to Enhance Dividend Low - Volatility - **Dividend + Pricing Power Approach**: Traditional high - dividend indices have several drawbacks, including style drift, inclusion of high - risk high - dividend stocks, and right - side trading characteristics. A comprehensive scoring system based on pricing power, price - to - earnings ratio, and stability can be used to select the top 20 stocks for a portfolio. A ten - year back - test shows that this combination has better performance in terms of cumulative return, annualized return, and drawdown control compared to the CSI Dividend Index [83][84]. - **Considering Institutional Participation Rate**: Incorporating institutional holdings into high - dividend screening reveals that stocks with high institutional participation (≥20%) from stable - cash - flow industries have better risk - return profiles, including higher cumulative returns, greater upside potential, and controlled drawdowns. In contrast, stocks with low institutional participation (<20%) from cyclical industries perform less well. Therefore, combining high - dividends with institutional recognition can build a safer and more sustainable dividend portfolio [89]. 3.5 Bottom - Position Is Not Just Dividends: Quality Low - Volatility and Cash Cows - The "quality + low - volatility" dual - screened bottom - position established in June 2020 can achieve a balance between offense and defense. By filtering out high - leverage and low - resilience companies and compressing risk thresholds, it has achieved a five - year rolling net value increase of about 1.6 times, with stable single - digit annualized returns and significantly reduced volatility and drawdowns compared to ordinary low - volatility strategies [94]. - The long - term returns of dividend assets mainly come from stable dividends and profits rather than valuation increases. From 2014 - 2025, the annualized total returns of Dividend Low - Volatility and CSI Dividend after reinvestment were 13.9% and 13.2% respectively, with dividend contributions exceeding 9 percentage points and accounting for over 70% of the total returns [98]. - The cash - cow enhancement framework uses six dimensions to examine potential risks in high - dividend portfolios and provides corresponding enhancement measures. These measures include equal - weighting industries and quality sorting to address concentration risks, using free - cash - flow and growth thresholds to eliminate "high - dividend traps", and implementing valuation gates and hedging strategies to manage valuation risks [108]. 3.6 Industrial Cycle Reversal: From Left to Right - At the inflection point of the industrial cycle, multi - dimensional indicators such as fundamentals, inventory, price, valuation, and funds often show concurrent inflection points. The consistency in the industry dimension, from raw material prices to mid - stream production and downstream demand, can improve the reliability of inflection - point signals. For example, the anti - involution market rhythm is often in line with this "consistency chain" [111][112]. - At the company level, by dividing samples into leading, mid - stream, and tail companies, monitoring the second - order derivatives of 10 key indicators can help identify the acceleration of marginal improvements in demand, pricing, or cash flows. When at least three indicators in any two of the three sample layers show positive second - order derivatives, it can be regarded as a company - level consistency inflection point [114]. - The industrial cycle reversal framework uses a "three - light" approach to determine investment opportunities. When the three conditions of valuation repair, profit - cash flow resonance improvement, and completion of inventory reduction and demand expansion are met simultaneously, it indicates a three - dimensional resonance of supply - demand, profit, and sentiment, and investors can make aggressive investments. Otherwise, they should continue to hold the dividend bottom - position [115].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the shifting dynamics in salary growth between different sectors, particularly emphasizing that the hospitality and healthcare industries are experiencing higher wage increases compared to traditional white-collar jobs, which are struggling to keep pace with inflation [2][3][4]. - Since 2021, the hospitality sector has seen a salary increase of nearly 30%, exceeding inflation by over 4%, while healthcare workers have experienced a salary growth of approximately 25% over the past four years [2]. - In contrast, professionals in business services, finance, and education are facing salary growth that lags behind inflation, with teachers' salaries growing nearly 5% less than inflation [2][5]. Group 2 - Despite the higher salary growth in the hospitality sector, it is unlikely that Generation Z will flock to jobs in bars or coffee shops, as entry-level tech positions still offer relatively higher pay, averaging $19.57 per hour compared to the $16 per hour for baristas [3][4]. - The white-collar job market is experiencing a slowdown in hiring, particularly in finance and professional services, with companies like Meta halting recruitment in their AI departments after a period of aggressive hiring [4]. - The education sector is noted to have the largest salary gap compared to inflation, and even those fortunate enough to secure tech jobs may face obstacles in career advancement, as promotion rates have declined from a peak of 14.6% in May 2022 to 10.3% in May 2025 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Huaying Construction (01582) reported a revenue of HKD 3.571 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.76% [1] Financial Performance - The profit attributable to the company's owners was HKD 24.278 million, a decrease of 32.27% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share were HKD 0.0486 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from building construction projects increased from approximately HKD 2.414 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2024, to approximately HKD 3.142 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, an increase of about HKD 728 million or approximately 30.1% [1] - The increase in revenue was attributed to new projects and existing projects generating higher income during the reporting period [1]